Secondary User

Vaccine efficacy is not a political take

Ah, a sophomoric response that definitely clarifies absolutely nothing. Well go ahead then and explain just why you picked out those three countries so we don't have to assume.

I'm assuming you understand that they won't be going to Guatemala, Honduras or Mexico to get replacement players. Any replacement players are already playing in the United States, and have been for at least 2-3 months. So is it safe to assume then that you just don't like players from those countries for some reason.....

*Yells into the void* VACCINE EFFICACY ISN'T A POLITICAL TOPIC *Ducks for cover*

This is not true. The US requires vaccination for entry into the US meaning that anytime a player from Tornoto travels to the US, they need to be vaccinated (would they not also need to be vaccinated to get back into Toronto?)

When you glorify championships, this is what you get.

Kemp + Prospect from LA. Let them sign Darvish. Lance Lynn. End of offseason

I'd expand by looking at Whiff Rate. Separate the hackers from the guys who are swinging with purpose

With the offseason hot stove about as warm as a [insert pathetic attempt at humor here] and pitchers and catchers set to report in just three weeks, it's roster prediction time. This article will start by looking at the starting rotation. ---DISCLAIMER--- At the time of publication, most of the free agent starting pitchers are still available and the Twins have been rumored to be in active discussions with Yu Darvish. The expectation is a meaningful addition will be added either through trade or free agency, with the likely route looking more and more like free agency. This article will be written under the assumption that they add a starter that will lock into the opening day rotation. 1) Ervin Santana Since his signing, Ervin Santana has been everything the Twins could have hoped he would be minus 80 games. Since becoming a Twin, Santana has registered a 3.47 ERA over 500.2 innings, including 211.1 in 2017 en route to a 10.0 bWAR. His peripherals have all stayed largely in line with what he's done throughout his career, and while a modest K-rate in the high teens and a fly ball tendency aren't going to produce the low FIP results people want to see, over the the last five years he's shown a consistent ability to out pitch his peripherals. Whether that will hold up over the remainder of his contract is yet to be seen, but barring the addition of one of a handful of options, Ervin is all but assured to be the Opening Day starter for the 3rd year in a row. 2) Jose Berrios After a hellacious start to his career and a stint in Rochester to start 2017, Jose re-entered the Twins rotation in mid May and looked much more the pitcher Twins fans were expecting to see. With the help of his elusive two-seam fastball and wipeout curve, Jose worked a 3.89 ERA. With a 22.6% K-rate, improved control, and a work ethic second to none, there is plenty to be excited about as Jose starts the season at 23 years old and firmly slotted into the 2nd spot in the rotation. Related note: If you're looking for a reason to be optimistic that Jose could take the next step into a full fledged top of the rotation starter, I'll leave you with this: Jose used his changeup around 8.5% of the time in 2017, 14% to lefties and only 4% against righties. Here's an example of Garret Cooper looking an absolute fool at a changeup that just disappears. https://twitter.com/PitchingNinja/status/887827186916483072Riding With a curve that works so hard from right to left, I'd like to see him incorporate this pitch more. If he can get consistent results with his changeup, watch out.... 4) Adelberto Mejia With the two obvious options aside, and an addition almost certainly slotting into the top 3 somewhere, we now get to the fourth spot in the rotation. This is the first point where I've encountered some differing opinions, though it seems like a no-brainer to me. Adelberto Mejia, who was required for Eduardo Nunez back in 2016, has a fastball that sits 92-94 slider. The bulky left-hander struggled to get deep into games in 2017, using a lot of pitches early while walking 4 hitters per 9 innings. This is a bit of an oddity considering he never really struggled with walks in the minors. He posted a 4.50 ERA, which is a little below average (98 ERA+), but given he'll be 24 at the start of the season, the room for growth is there. You'd like to see improvement to the 19% K-rate along with the efficiency this season, but expecting a solid 3/4 contribution from Mejia in 2018 is definitely no stretch. On the flip side, 5) [insert Pitcher Here] Most people want to insert Kyle Gibson here, and that will almost assuredly be the direction they go to start the season. However, you can put me in the group of people that don't think Gibson's strong second half wasn't a career turning point. As was the case with the Twins schedule in general, Kyle faced a much easier set of opponents in the second half. Of Kyle's 13 second half starts, only two of them came against teams with winning records (those two games did happen to be Houston and Cleveland, for whatever that's worth). Four of them came against the Tigers, two against the Royals, two against the Blue Jays, and one each against the Rangers, Padres and White Sox. Not exactly a murder's row. There are a few different routes to competition for the 5th spot: Return from Injury Last spring, Trevor May was stretching back out to be a starter when he needed Tommy John surgery to repair his UCL. While he doesn't figure to be ready until May (har har) at the earliest, it'll be interesting to watch just what role is envisioned for him as he makes his return. Phil Hughes also ended the season the the DL last year while undergoing a secondary surgery for Thoracic Outlet syndrome. After a breakout 2014, Hughes immediately saw his velocity drop and the results disappear along with it. After two procedures, can he regain his velocity, and perhaps a rotation spot? Prospects Rochester's rotation figures to be quite full at the start of the minor league season. From ranked prospects such as Fernando Romero and Stephen Gonsalves to deeper prospects like Dietrich Enns, Zack Littel, Kohl Stewart, Aaron Slegers and Felix Jorge, there figures to be competition at the highest minor league level. With so many arms, you'd like to think that someone will take a step forward and force the organization's hand. Free Agency Yes, we're assuming the Twins will make a free agent starting pitcher addition, but could they double down and bring in two arms? With the market developing slowly, can they find the room to fit Darvish plus a Lynn, Cobb, or even a Jaime Garcia? If Darvish goes elsewhere, could they take that money and hedge their bet by bringing in both Lynn and Cobb? There are still a lot of arms available, and it doesn't appear as if there are a lot of teams willing to pony up the money to get these starters to sign. Does that open the door for something a little unexpected to happen? The top of the Twins rotation looks set one through three. My perception is that I'm more bullish on Mejia than most and more bearish on Gibson than most. I wouldn't be surprised at all to see an other season similar to last year where the fifth spot in the rotation becomes a carousel until someone sticks. Unlike last year, with the AAA depth, I fully expect someone to stick this season.

That seems like an early plug pull....

Welp

Do not throw away data. Ever. Understand why outliers might be outliers

Ian Desmond

It's no secret that the biggest position of need for the Twins is the pitching staff. Sadly, this is a very weak free agent pitching class, and with arms like Santana, Hughes and Gibson still around and reports out that the Twins won't be adding payroll this offseason there doesn't look to be much in the way of room for additions anyway. Looks to be a bleak 2017 led by another dismal performance by the pitching staff. Or is it? What if the first step on the journey to fixing the pitching is a step backwards, as in behind the plate? Let's start by looking at what Twins catchers from 2015 have done in their careers: http://i.imgur.com/emwUkcB.png It's pretty clear that Twins catchers have done their pitchers no favors. Both Centeno and Suzuki continued their career trends of being sub par, if not awful pitch framers. It might seem like a trait that would have minimal impact, but some quick research into the effectiveness of hitters based on count quickly shows the drastic effect stealing a strike or giving one away can have. http://i.imgur.com/oEkxOXv.png There's a lot of numbers there, but take particular note of the BA and SLG as the count progresses and you can see the value framing can bring. For instance, After a 1-0 count, hitters hit .271/.382/.457 last year, while after an 0-1 count, hitters hit .223/.266/.352. That's roughly a 20% increase in production based on whether the first pitch gets called a ball or a strike. That's where the value of pitch framing comes from. Putting your pitchers in more favorable counts by stealing strikes and not hurting them by giving them away. When you figure that Suzuki and Centeno were two of the worst pitch framers in the majors this year, and certainly haven't been good throughout their careers, you start to wonder just how much of an effect this may have had on the Twins results. The Twins got their offseason started by signing catcher Jason Castro. Castro's 3yr/$24mil contract is directly tied to his ability as a pitch framer. http://i.imgur.com/gNEYE4A.png Over the past three seasons, Baseball Prospectus has rated him as a plus pitch framer. Since 2014, he's been one of the best framers in the league, and when you take the abysmal framing the Twins were getting from Suzuki/Centeno and bring in a genuine plus behind the plate, the potential for some significant improvements without even touching the pitching staff suddenly becomes plausible. The Catch: Castro's problem though is pretty offensive splits. Against RHP, Castro hits a respectable .247/.328/.424. But against LHP, that plummets to a .190/.249/.287. So any value Castro brings defensively will be largely offset when the opposing pitcher is a southpaw. So ideally, you'd want to platoon Castro with a catcher who can hit LHP, and also brings good defensive value. ***DISCLAIMER*** I'm about to say something that may have you questioning my qualifications to write even a personal blog comment on this, so for the sake of objectivity, I'm going to remove names. ***DISCLAIMER*** Player A actually fits the mold quite well. As the graph below shows, Player A has graded out as a superb pitch framer in the minors, and in limited time in the majors, has been a plus framer. http://i.imgur.com/rfrSKie.png He has hit LHP to the tune of .253/.301/.390. Nothing to write home about, but for the lesser half of a L/R catching platoon, certainly serviceable. So who is this masked man? John Ryan Murphy. I know, I know, I know. 2015 was awful and just made you question how he ever made it to the major leagues. But looking past a small sample, we see the yin to Castro's yang. The right handed bat that can hold his own against LHP and not cost your pitcher strikes. Can it be enough to make a meaningful difference? That's what we'll see. The Twins rotation had the worst ERA in the AL by over half a run. The rotation won't be fixed in one move. Jason Castro is not a silver bullet. But this signing embodies a departure from a way of thinking that was often times behind the times.

The question I have is once it was known that Light wouldn't get on a flight in time, why not just wait on a move? Don't DL Boshers until after the second game, Albers is still your 26th man, even though Boshers is unavailable. That way, you can still send Albers down without a transaction after the second game if you have to use him a lot (like they did) and call someone else up, or you can make the same move you did between games.

The temporary move bit is nonsense. Santana, Hughes and Gibson aren't going anywhere for the next three years. Berrios and Duffey coming up. Stewart, Thorpe, Jay. And this doesn't include any acquisitions. Where does a spot open up for him?

This is going to be obvious to most, but In regard to the whole "handedness of the pitcher doesn't matter": That holds water with starters. Starters need to be effective against both sides in order to work multiple trips through the order effectively, and if they sacrifice a minor platoon split, that's not a deal breaker. Particularly against LH batters, since somewhere between 60-70% of the PAs come as RHB, so the effects are mitigated. But the game is becoming more and more situational. Bullpens are being used more aggressively and platoon splits are being leveraged to give their team the best possible chance of winning. A bullpen NEEDS to have a guy (if not two) that come come in situationally and shut down a left handed bat. Ideally, yes you would want them to be able to get righties out too, but the fact of the matter is that platoon splits exist for a reason. It's harder to hit a same handed pitcher. So if you're looking for someone to lockdown lefties, a LHP is the best bet. All that being said, with his very good changeup, Trevor could be solid against lefties, though it hasn't shown up in his results yet

Kill retiring due to health concerns would be my guess

Hasn't he expressed front office aspirations?

Let the speculation begin

"Heck....if they never call up Buxton, he'll never get to free agency" Paraphrasing Gleeman

9205 I believe

I know it's been saiid here, but anyone know the typical innings increases for starting pitchers? 15% 20%?

So Kevin Jepsen made some interesting points last night after recording his first save for the injured Glen Perkins. He talked about how his changeup was important last night against the two lefties and how early in the year he had relied less on his changeup to lefties, and it was resulting in his left handed splits getting out of control. For those who missed it, Jepsen worked a one-two-three inning, striking out the side, including left handed hitting Chris Davis and switch hitting (batting left handed against Jepsen) Matt Weiters. In both at bats against lefties, he got ahead in the count by eliciting a swing and miss against his changeup. Looking at his pitch usage against lefties over 2014 and 2015, we see that he certainly is using it less this year, than last. http://i.imgur.com/9WOMMb7.jpg His splits over that time against lefties were: 2014: .219/.286/.342/.628 with a 29% K% 2015: .247/.355/.355/.709 with a 20% K% Here's what the usages look like before and after the trade: http://i.imgur.com/wLFLpRF.jpg And the corresponding LHB splits: Pre-trade:.250/.348/.329/.662 with a 21% K% Post-Trade: .188/.316/.188/.503 with a 38% K% There are some pretty key indicators that suggest that isn't mere happenstance. Neil Allen was the AAA pitching coach for the Rays organization last year, and (as reported by Kevin Wetmore) he contacted former associates in the Rays organization before the trade was made. Allen has also been vocal about increased usage of the changeup in his short tenure with the Twins. This has the makings of being a prime example of the importance of a strong analytics department. We're working on a SSS right now, but what we're seeing in the SSS is inline with what we've seen from Jepsen in the past. When he's using his changeup to lefties, he's fairly strong against them. Are we continuing to see the emergence of an analytics department that has for too long been woefully nonexistent? Jepsen's success moving forward against lefties will likely be an indication of which way the balance of power is moving.

Hold = non game ending save. They're the same thing