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hugelycat

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    hugelycat reacted to Patrick Wozniak for a blog entry, Did the Twins Miss Out On Zac Gallen?   
    During the run-up to the MLB Trade Deadline the Minnesota Twins were linked to several big-name starting pitchers. We heard rumors about the Twins potentially landing someone like Noah Syndergaard, Marcus Stroman, Madison Bumgarner, or even Trevor Bauer. When the dust settled, Minnesota was either unable or unwilling to meet the demands for those pitchers and decided to stand pat with the current rotation. The Twins were never going to give up a player like Byron Buxton and were rightfully protective of top prospects Royce Lewis and Alex Kirililoff. With that taken into consideration, the Twins may well only have Jose Berrios returning from this year’s rotation for 2020, and they may have missed a golden opportunity to add a talented young pitcher.
     
    The Arizona Diamondbacks received rookie right-hander Zac Gallen from the Miami Marlins in return for Jazz Chisholm, a short stop prospect currently playing in AA. This was a somewhat unique deadline trade as it was a prospect-for-prospect swap (although Gallen made his MLB debut on June 20th and has been up ever since), but the Twins did something similar by swapping Lewin Diaz for Chris Vallimont in the Sergio Romo trade days prior to the Gallen trade. It’s possible that the Marlins were really after Chisholm and contacted Arizona, but the reverse seems more likely. The Twins had just had Miami on the phone and were also playing in Miami at the time of the Gallen trade, so it wouldn’t have been hard to inquire about Gallen.
     
    Gallen has certainly looked the part of a big league pitcher thus far in his MLB career. The Twins got an up-close peak at Gallen during the Marlins series on the day before he was traded, and he did not disappoint against Minnesota’s historic offense (7IP, 4H, 2ER, 8K). He was also great in his first start in Arizona, as he went five innings without allowing any runs and only one hit on 85 pitches while picking up the win.
     
    Gallen has really only recently began to sneak into the top 100 of some of the prospect lists, but his stock has risen significantly this season. He has added velocity to his fastball which now sits closer to the mid-90s with plenty of spin and he has a great change up along with a pretty good cutter. Gallen dominated the PCL with a 1.77 ERA and 33.6 K% this year and has pitched really well so far in the big leagues. The 24-year-old had a 2.72 ERA (3.58 FIP) with 10.65 K/9 in seven starts with the Marlins and is off to a good start in Arizona.
     
    The Marlins seem to be craving high-upside boom-or-bust type prospects and the Twins could have easily provided a similar or somewhat better package than Chisholm. Coming into the season, Chisholm was highly regarded as a short stop possessing both speed and power and he has hit 20 home runs so far this season. He’s a high-upside prospect with great physical tools, but his stock has dropped this year as he has only hit around .200 and is striking out in nearly 35% of his plate appearances. Most prospect rankings still consider him a top 100 prospect, but he fell out of Baseball America’s midseason list.
     
    Although Gallen’s MLB career is only beginning, he would still fit nicely in with Minnesota’s current rotation. In fact, he seemingly would have been a perfect addition to the team because he is pitching well now and would be under team control for many years to come. If the Twins decide not to pick-up Martin Perez’s team option for next season (and the proposition is looking less and less likely) they will need to fill four spots in the rotation. Gallen would have slotted in nicely somewhere behind Berrios and the Twins would have an established young starter along with a promising young arm to build around.
     
    The trade deadline has come and gone, but hopefully the front office took notice of the unique opportunity this trade provided. Arizona was able to pick up a young and promising starter while only giving up one high-risk, high-reward prospect. Of course, most teams are hesitant to give up young MLB-ready pitching, but the Twins would be wise to look into the possibility of making a similar off-season trade.
     
    One team that they may want to look at is…the Miami Marlins. Who knows how much young pitching Miami is willing to part with, but again, they seem to favor high-upside prospects and they are not going to contend in the near future. Although Gallen is out of the picture, the Marlins do have a couple more young pitchers the Twins may want to take a look at in Sandy Alcantara and Jordan Yamamoto.
     
    Of the two, Alcantara throws much harder, touching triple digits and sitting in the high-90s. Alcantara has had his issues so far, struggling with control (11.1% BB) and not getting as many strikeouts (16.8% K) as one would hope, but he would be an intriguing arm for Wes Johnson to work with. He is one of only eight MLB pitches to have a greater than 10% swinging strike rate on three non-fastball pitches (slider, curve, and changeup), so the strikeouts should come. The 23-year-old is a former top-100 prospect.
     
    Yamamoto doesn’t have the velocity or prospect status of Alcantara, but he throws six pitches and has done pretty well in his first stint with the Marlins after being called up from AA. In 54 innings he has pitched to a 4.17 ERA (4.18 FIP) with a 1.04 WHIP and has struck out 55 batters. Yamamota is also just 23 years of age and would presumably cost Minnesota less than Alcantara in terms of prospects.
     
    Even with the addition of one of these young starters, the front office will have their work cut out for them this off season. One would hope that the Twins would add at least two higher quality and more experienced starters through free agency and trade. However, a young, team controlled starter like Alcantara or Yamamota could be a nice depth piece with minor league options that could probably be had for a fairly insignificant price. The Twins have exciting pitching prospects like Brusdar Graterol, Jhoan Duran, Edwar Colina, and Jordan Balazovic all inching closer, but it would be nice to have some additional young pitching talent to help bridge the gap and fill out the rotation.
     
    The Twins made it through the trade deadline without losing any top prospects and the system is loaded with depth. Hopefully Derek Falvey and Thad Levine took heed of the Zac Gallen trade and will be able to identify some young pitching talent and make a similar deal with the Marlins or another organization. Obtaining pitching talent is never easy, but it was something Falvey was known for in Cleveland and the Twins are going to need all the pitching help they can get in 2020.
  2. Like
    hugelycat reacted to butterspud for a blog entry, 2018 Off-season Plan - Trade Edition   
    Hey everyone,
    I recently posted my off-season plan for free agency and now would like to explore trade options as well.
    As stated in my last post, I see our needs being:
    Starting Pitching
    Relief Pitching
    Designated Hitter
    Bench Bats (Utility)
     
    Here are my top trade wants/possibilities,
     
    Starting Pitchers:
    1. Daniel Norris for Kohl Stewart & Luis Arraez
    - The Tigers seemingly committed to the rebuild when they traded away Verlander and Norris had a down year (5.31 ERA). It's a good time for the Twins to take advantage of both of these facts. It might take a bit more but I feel like Stewart (former 1st round pick) and Arraez (hitting the heck out of the ball) is enough. Arraez will be blocked by more complete talents coming up through the system and the Tigers seem to have a shortage at 2B behind Kinsler (Who they're trying to move). Norris is 24 and not a FA till 2022. This would be an amazing move.
    2. Collin McHugh & Mike Fiers for J.T. Chargois & Jermaine Palacios
    - Okay, I get it. The Astros won the world series. Why would they mess with something great right? Well being almost as much of an Astros fan as I am a Twins fan I know the Astros have a log jam in decent starting pitching. It makes all the sense in the world for them to open up a rotation spot to play around with Francis Martes, Brad Peacock, David Paulino, and eventually Forest Whitley. And who needs more pitching depth? The Twins! McHugh and Fiers are a couple years older than what that team's nucleous is (30 & 32 years old) so I feel like they would be willing to do this deal for lower top 30 prospects. Also, both aren't FA until 2020.
    3. Michael Wacha for Stephen Gonsalves, Felix Jorge, & Lachlan Wells
    - Here's the splash deal. At first the Cardinals are going to want Lewis or Gordon no doubt. But, I see those two becoming our future all star infield (Move Gordon to second) and don't want to part with them unless I get a true ace. Wacha is close but not a shut down starter. The Cardinals seem to be interested in Giancarlo Stanton and we can help them in that chase by sending some top pitching prospects (The Marlins need pitching more than we need air) for a proven durable starter. Giving up Gonsalves hurts after seeing him develop but he also seems to be a typical pitch to contact Twins starter. After watching him in AAA I see him becoming a Nick Blackburn at best.
    4. Scott Kazmir for Phil Hughes & Tyler Watson
    - Basically swapping contracts and atmospheres for two players who have declined rapidly to see if they can regain their magic. I added Watson in here because of Hughes's timetable on his injury and Kazmir seeming to be all healed up and ready to go.
     
    Relief Pitching:
    1. Kelvin Herrera for Felix Jorge, Kohl Stewart, & J.T. Chargois
    - This seems like a steep price to pay for a reliever that's not in discussions with Miller and Chapman but Herrera is massively underrated. He would provide a shut down closer we haven't had since Perkins prime. He gets strikeouts on top of strikeouts which is encouraging for a fan who hates Minnesota Twins pitch to contact (ME!!)
    2.Darren O'Day and Miguel Castro for J.T. Chargois & Ryan Eades
    - I would like Britton but that will almost certainly cost Gordon so I went for Britton 2.0 in Miguel Castro. Although he's 22 and has tons of team control on a possibly rebuilding club I think they will find it valuable to move him if they can get O'Day's contract and age off their books. And O'Day is not to bad of a reliever himself.
    3. Raisel Iglesias for Stephen Gonsalves
    - I put this one in here because of the recent rumors. Falvine, Do not, I repeat, DO NOT! trade Nick Gordon for a closer who can opt out as soon as he can. Don't get me wrong Iglesias has beautiful stuff but I'd feel a lot more comfortable giving up Gonsalves (Blackburn) for him and I think it's logically something the Reds would consider as they are rebuilding.
     
    Designated Hitter:
    1. Maikel Franco for Alex Kiriloff & Travis Blankenhorn
    - This is the only deal that makes sense to me for a designated hitter. This deal might actually move Sano into the DH spot instead of Franco but this would be a huge plus for us. Our best players are around his age so he will develop at the same time and I think the guy just needs a change of scenery, Philadelphia cast him into the superstar light to early and the pressure crushed him. He would do well playing alongside Buxton and Sano. Kiriloff's potential and Blackenhorn should be enough to turn the Phillies ear to us.
     
    Bench Bat (Utility):
    1. Ian Kinsler for Tyler Watson & Charlie Barnes
    - Hear me out. He costs a lot, yes. He's getting old, yes. But Ian Kinsler would be an amazing utility infielder. His age seems to be catching up with him making him a borderline starter at best but his clutch bat and glove coming off the bench would be huge for the Twins. He's a one year declining rental on a rebuilding squad making the price cheaper than cheap and the future commitments to his contract nothing. Giving up two relief prospects (Watson is in the top 20) for him should not affect us at all with the young depth we have in the minors. It would be a very interesting move.
     
    As always if you have comments, critiques please reply below.
    Thanks
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