gunnarthor

I think this is the right thing for everyone. He can sign for something somewhere since it's a pretty bad WR free agency crop, maybe for more than what the Vikes were willing to do. And the Vikings can clear his salary and be ready to reload in a year. It also, if nothing big happens, lets Osborn slide into the #2 receiver position and, ideally, take another step up. He certainly had a few games where he looked like a legit #2.

Honestly, I don't think it's realistic for the QB of the future to drop into our laps in this draft and Cousins isn't going anywhere so it's likely that the Vikings try to reload instead of a rebuild next year. The offense should still be pretty good. Draft defense, see what a new scheme and good coaching can fix, hope to catch fire at the right times again. Depending on how Detroit is, the North should be winnable. But I don't see any realistic scenario for a new QB right now. The Vikings aren't going to tank the season.

Fun article.

I think you're right that if Correa gets hurt, we're in trouble. But that's pretty true for most players of his caliber. You don't lose a 5 WAR player and just shrug it off. I also agree with you on catcher, although fangraphs projections are a lot more bullish than I would have guessed. Hopefully they are right. But I think this article was, more or less, looking at projections and the projections have some health built into it.

? I think one of us is simply talking past the other.

Player, not position. Fangraphs have the Twins tied with Cleveland in total projected WAR 11th overall at about 44 WAR. (It's essentially a 7 or 8 way tie, really). And the article actually had DH as a 2,0 WAR overall position.

Have you not heard of Green Bay?

I think this article is about right. Kiriloff is the obvious difference maker but the wrist is a huge problem. If he could be healthy, I'd swear he'd be a consistent middle of the order bat. But the injuries have really messed it up. It's depressing. I think Rocco's quote is accurate, the Twins will use DH and 1B as a "mix-and-match" position. I'm not sure that's ideal but it's what they are going to do. They have enough bats to find some decent production out of first base but they won't be top 10 there.

I don't mind the concept of "win-now" trades and I was in favor of both the Gray trade and the Mahle trade. But we gave up Steer, CES, and an arm in Hajjar for 1.5 seasons of Mahle with the expectation that we'd be a playoff team. Instead, so far, the result has been bad. We finished below .500 and Mahle had shoulder problems. That's not good. Even if trades make sense, they need to start paying off.

Fine. They still get graded on it. They made a move that didn't work. Again.

No one said that. But the Twins gave up a lot and only got 16 crappy innings (so far). A lot of moves are defensible but this FO has constantly made moves that didn't work. And some point, results should matter.

I think the lineup is going to be good, we have solid depth and some intriguing young players. But a best case scenario, for me, would be: C - Vazquez (I don't like him but we paid for him) 1B - Healthy Kiriloff. He's had a few runs where his wrist was fine and showed he could be a capable middle of the order bat. 2B - Julien. They trade Polanco for pitching because Julien is ready to step up and isn't a disaster. SS - Correa. 3B - Lee. Forces the issue with a great ST and sits there for 15 years. LF - Larnich. He's 26. He was drafted to be a starting, middle of the order bat. Best case is he turns into that. CF - Buxton RF - Wallner. Trade Kepler for pitching because Waller is 25 and was drafted to be a staring, middle of the order bat. DH - Gallo. Best case is he hits 40+ HR and a 120 OPS+. You'd have a pretty nice bench of Jeffers, Gordon, Miranda, Farmer, Taylor all capable of starting multiple positions. Buxton (and Taylor) will have to cover a LOT of ground in the OF and even then, it may not be enough. And Julien might make us pine for the days of Todd Walker but, if "best-case" means everything breaks right, ...

No surprise but I hope he does well where ever he lands. Fun player to root for.

That's a nice optimistic take on the rotation, which is nice to see. I disagree but hope I'm wrong.

I saw a recent mock that had Richardson going first overall. So that pipe dream of him falling to the Vikings seems impossible. I agree on DL but I'm not sure this is the draft for that. From what I've read, this is a good draft for corners so we might get a solid one in the third. But it also might be the type of draft where you just grab a bunch of CB/S/tweener types and let Flores figure out how to use them.

I'm really happy to see this. Flores' case will go to court and not just to Goodell in arbitration. Big win for Flores. I imagine the NFL will try to settle this now but we'll see. https://www.yahoo.com/entertainment/nfl-coach-brian-flores-discrimination-165818973.html

I would disagree with that. The last couple years have been both disappointing and, worse, boring. This is not a fun team to watch. It has constantly been a bad product - stupid base running mistakes, defensive miscues, lots of pitching changes, etc. But the main point is right - spending money doesn't guarantee success but it is so obviously relevant that fans should demand more and Twins fans have been conditioned to worry about costs far more than they should.

Loved the pick. Really hope we see him this year.

First, and this isn't just necessarily to your response but others as well, the Twins weren't the only team that dealt with injuries. The White Sox lost Jiminez, Moncada, and Anderson for large chunks of the season and still were better than us. But if you have players who get hurt they tend to continue to get hurt as they get older. It's not realistic to think that this team will be healthier just b/c last year was a bad health year. Second, even if the team is better positioned than last year, it was still a bad team last year. (We also had Mahle and J. Lopez last year). This might be where you and I most differ. A lot of people think last year's team would have been good but for the injuries to Maeda and Sano and whomever. I did not. I thought last years pitching was bad. The early 120 OPS+ was unsustainable, that that it would revert to true talent level. And it did. Same here. We don't have a good enough pitching staff. Even if Mahle, Lopez, Gray and Ryan each stay healthy, this still might not be a .500 team. I do like some of our young players, especially Julien and Lee. And I'm pretty bullish on Martin. I think there is some really good offensive potential. Correa, Buxton and Polanco could combine for 15+ WAR up the middle. There absolutely is some reason for optimism. But I still think the most realistic scenario is that this team finishes slightly below .500.

It's because there are so many "ifs" and hopes on this team. The Twins were hurt a lot last year so we're going to hope those same players are healthy this year. IF Kiriloff's wrist is fixed, he's probably a pretty good hitter. If Mahle's shoulder is good, he's a good pitcher. etc But the injuries are overstated. Every team dealt with injuries. The Twins arguably had a top five offense (by rate stats) last year and were a bit unlucky so there are certainly things we can hope improve - Buxton stays healthy, Kepler improves, Larnich or Wallner or someone claims LF, Miranda isn't a disaster at third. Guys like Farmer and Gordon can play well in platoon roles but not as everyday starters (one can't hit lefties, one can't hit righties). Again, you can see a top offense isn't a ridiculous idea. But it does require a lot of things to go right. But it's the pitching. It's a whole bunch of hope. Lopez, Gray, Ryan, Mahle are good ML starters IF they are healthy but that is a huge if. Behind them, we have a bunch of untested, generally not well regarded arms like Ober, Winder, SWR, etc. The pen has Duran and a bunch of AAAA arms. I don't see how this team is significantly different from last years team which was a bad team. To blame that entirely on injuries is just wishful thinking.

If he's our UI, great. He can fit in and plug a hole here and there. But I'd really hate to have him as our starting anything.

What three starters do we have in AAA that are starters for half of baseball? Farmer managed 1 WAR in 145 games for the Reds last season. He's 32 and the projections don't like him. Jeffers failed as a starter so we brought in a 32 year old who should be a back up. I like Taylor. He'll play a lot. But, again, a lot has to go right. Kepler, Gallo, Kiriloff have to be better. Miranda has to show he can play third in the majors. There is some nice depth in the minors - Lewis, Lee, Julien, Martin - and enough left in the majors - Buxton, Correa, Polanco - that you can see where the Twins could be ok offensively. But there are a lot of ifs.

Maybe I should have said "good depth." 😁

Bundy and Archer were bad - they combined for 1.2 fWAR (bWAR was far worse) in 240 innings. So there will be some improvement from getting rid of them but how much would depend on who is pitching those 240 innings. If it's Varland or Winder, maybe no better. If the comparison is Bundy/Archer (1.2 fWAR, 240 ip) v. Mahle/Lopez (5 fWAR, 300ip), it's pretty clear which is better, but even that's not as big. What's the cost of the increase? Lopez is good, I expect a 3 WARish season from him. But we lost 3 WAR from Arraez so net gain zero. Mahle gave us nothing but was worth 2 WAR with the fish, so, in a perfect world where everything goes right, Gray, Ryan, Lopez and Mahle give us essentially 1 extra WAR after losing Bundy, Archer and Arraez. (And, again, that's with the hope that those four stay healthy and pitch well. I don't think that will happen). But, assume it all went great, as I said in my first post, even if all that goes right, this still might not be a .500 team because I don't think the Twins did enough to improve the team. If you squint, you can see how this could be a pretty good offense. But you're squinting because a lot has to break right there, too. The team lacks depth, has a strangely weird combination of older players needing to bounce back with unproven but also surprisingly old inexperienced players needing to break through. But, looking at the roster, you essentially have to find a +7-10 WAR from last years team to think this is a playoff team. I don't see that improvement, even with Bundy and Archer gone.

You and I just disagree on how good the pitchers that are here are. While I like Lopez, the Twins can't reasonably expect Gray and Ryan to be better than last years numbers. Kenta Maeda isn't a starter anymore. Mahle has injury concerns. The Twins also have a bunch of AAA/A arms - Ober, Winder, Varland, SWR, etc - but none of them are givens and none of them are highly regarded in the prospect world. Ryan, Gray, Mahle, and Lopez need to be healthy and need to pitch near their career peaks for the Twins to be above .500. Behind them, it's a crap shoot. I don't trust those four to stay healthy as a group. Last year, the four of them combined for about 100 starts. 10 WAR, and 560 innings. I would take the under on all three of those this year. And, even if they all hit that benchmark, it might not be enough to get the Twins over .500.