Twins7

Yeah, I've been thinking that plouffe ought to be traded, but I saw a post recently that suggested that he was top-3 in the MLB in some defensive stats measuring range... That gives me pause. I agree, though, that there's a logjam with plouffe, Mauer, and Sano on the team, and Vargas and Arcia in the minors. Plus, the OF is stacked with Buxton, hicks, Rosario and Kepler waiting in the wings. The best way, IMO to deal with this logjam would be to deal plouffe and an OF for a good young catcher, or perhaps a good young pitcher. Tough deal, though. It'll be interesting to see how it all shakes out at the corners, OF, and DH next season...

Just pure innings totals... A starter pitches more than double the innings compared to a reliever. Having 2-3 dominant relievers is huge for a team; it can add a bunch of wins in close games. So, I'm in favor of May in the bullpen this year, to provide that lock-down option in the pen here for the stretch. But, if we can get that performance from another option next year (Meyer? Burdi? Jones? Chargois?) May is best for us as a starter. He has the stuff to give us 175 innings at a 3.5 era, which would be huge.

Bird's a good prospect... Kid can mash. Played with him in high school. Kevin Gausman of the orioles was on that team too.

Why would you expect him to tell his team that they don't have a shot at contention right now when their contending? Not doing so isn't cowardly, it's just a counterproductive thing to say, even if he believes it to be true. No need to hurt the teams confidence; stuff happens, and the season isn't close to being over. I personally think that Ryan believes that our World Series year will require some elite level play from multiple positions. Right now we have some good-very good players in plouffe and dozier, and potentially hicks, Rosario and Santana. Arcia, Kepler, polanco waiting in the wings. Good-very good pitchers in Hughes, Santana, Gibson, and potentially may. In late 2016 when/if we have elite level play from Sano, Buxton, and Berrios we could be really serious World Series contenders, with an even better understanding of which players in the OF/1B/DH logjam will be keepers and which should be traded. Next season should be the year to make a big splash for a catcher/SS/frontline starter, if we don't sign one this offseason.

I am a fan of effective velocity; it's a really fascinating idea. I think the key thing that you aren't pointing out, though, is that effective velocity, in practice, doesn't occur in a vacuum: its all about what the hitter is keying in on. The cool thing about the theory is that it takes into account the plane of the bat, and where the bat must strike the ball to make solid contact when the ball is inside vs. outside. So, a 97mph fastball is more effective when it's thrown up and in because the hitter would have to key in on it, leaving them susceptible to offspeed stuff low and away. The idea is that a hitter can accidentally get a hit when pitchers work backwards - two identical swings, in terms of the plane of the bat and timing of the swing, can allow for good contact on an offspeed pitch up and in as well as good contact on a fastball down and away. What the guy behind effective velocity is saying is that a pitcher can maximize the difference in perceived velocity - the difference in the timing and plane of the swing required for good contact - by throwing fastballs up and in and offspeed stuff low and away. So, a pitcher can be effective throwing fastballs down and away - but the hitter better not be expecting it, and the pitcher had better not miss with a change-up up and in. When pitchers are throwing these pitches up and away, or down and in, it muddies the picture in terms of effective velocity. Plus, the pitcher has to consider what the hitter is up to - the hitter's tendencies/strengths, and what the hitter is expecting from the pitcher. It makes for a fascinating game of chess, and it makes it really tough to say that one pitch is more effective than another simply because the league performs better on average with that pitch - after all, every individual battle between the pitcher and the hitter is contingent upon the strategies of each player.

I find this quote, especially the bolded part to be really interesting. I'm curious about the decisions he is talking about - but not so much in the conspiratorial sense that ownership is taking advantage of fan's love of the team by limiting payroll and maximizing profit. We all know that fans love exciting, winning teams - when a team starts winning, fans show up. Shoot, I'm sure most of the people on this site developed their love the twins with Kirby in 87 and 91, or Mauer and Santana in the 2000s. What interests me is that that sentence seems to be an insight into TR's, as well as ownership's, theories of how to put together seriously good teams. Like, contend for the world series every year for a five year stretch types of teams. Like the Giants, or the Cardinals, or the darned Yanks. It seems like TR believes that the net benefits of certain moves that hurt the current team are large enough that enough of such moves will lead to an excellent team. Sort of an economics game. For one, being bad gives you advantages - higher draft picks, larger amounts of money to invest in the draft and a higher position on the waiver wire. These avenues really do allow bad teams to accrue talent, and the twins have been reaping the benefits. Another angle that I find interesting is the flexibility of fandom: if you put together a team that is solid every now and then, but rarely great (Oakland, Tampa Bay, Colorado, Miami, San Diego), it's tough to build a rabid, thick-n-thin fanbase. This is all obvious stuff, but taken together it really speaks to TR and the Pohlad's strategy, which really can't involve anything else besides building a seriously contending team (imo). To consistently make decisions that will help future teams at the expense of the current team is ballsy as hell, and really can't be done without real job security. Trading away solid starting center fielders based on the work of minor league center fielders, and trading these cf's for minor league pitchers was pretty ballsy, with large risks and large rewards. But, TR knows his job is safe, and knows that these moves will result in a worse team temporarily. The upside of these moves is that Meyer and May become solid to good SP's, while young guys like Hicks or Bux develop to take roles vacated by Span and Revere - a net increase in production. The downside is basically what has happened so far - no real centerfielder, and doubts about the future of Meyer and Mays (although there is still a lot of time left). What I'm really trying to say with this post is that I believe that TR and ownership believe, and act on, the idea that a truly excellent team is built through the acquisition of high upside talent at all positions, by any means necessary. Even if it means die-hard fans have to endure what we've been through the last 4 years.

I think that Ryan and the twins are being so conservative with Meyer because of injury concerns. Yes, he could get hurt in AAA, but my interpretation of their handling of him this year is that they want him to be 100% confident with his stuff when he gets to the big leagues. If he's up, and he's looking for that extra juice to get guys out - that's the sort of thing that can get him hurt. Throwing a little bit harder, tweaking his delivery just to get a little bit extra on pitches, that possibility has to scare the front office. Do people really believe this is about anything other than protecting Meyer? He's been on a pitch count all year. Everyone knows he's the best pitcher in the organization, or at least the higher levels. Meyer can't develop his stuff and durability if he's hurt. If he doesn't have the strength to pitch 150+ innings in the big leagues under extra pressure to be the savior of the rotation, he might press when he gets tired, putting undue stress on his arm in a season that already appears lost.