terrydactyls

This is one person's view concerning the possible upcoming free agency of Shohei Ohtani.
There have been many predictions that Ohtani may be the first $500M player.  The reaction of most people is that a price tag like that eliminates the Twins.  But, does it?
If Ohtani becomes a free agent, I think the Twins should make a quick offer of 8 years at a total of $480M (an AVV of $60M).  WTF? you say?  Why not?  You get a genuine "ace" and a top tier outfielder wrapped up in a single person.  The top three free agent pitchers in 2022 signed for an average AVV of $32M and the top three free agent hitters signed for an average AVV of $27M (or $59M combined).  The offer looks outrageous but it is in line with the going rate.  It also frees up an additional roster spot!  And, from what I am hearing on MLB radio and TV, the merchandise sales in Japan alone might cover the entire salary.  It is certainly worth taking a shot at signing Ohtani.  Tell his agent it is your BAFO (best and final offer) and is good only for 24 hours.  If he signs, great.  If he doesn't sign, you gave it your best shot.

This is one person's view concerning the possible upcoming free agency of Shohei Ohtani.
There have been many predictions that Ohtani may be the first $500M player.  The reaction of most people is that a price tag like that eliminates the Twins.  But, does it?
If Ohtani becomes a free agent, I think the Twins should make a quick offer of 8 years at a total of $480M (an AVV of $60M).  WTF? you say?  Why not?  You get a genuine "ace" and a top tier outfielder wrapped up in a single person.  The top three free agent pitchers in 2022 signed for an average AVV of $32M and the top three free agent hitters signed for an average AVV of $27M (or $59M combined).  The offer looks outrageous but it is in line with the going rate.  It also frees up an additional roster spot!  And, from what I am hearing on MLB radio and TV, the merchandise sales in Japan alone might cover the entire salary.  It is certainly worth taking a shot at signing Ohtani.  Tell his agent it is your BAFO (best and final offer) and is good only for 24 hours.  If he signs, great.  If he doesn't sign, you gave it your best shot.

This is one person's view concerning the possible upcoming free agency of Shohei Ohtani.
There have been many predictions that Ohtani may be the first $500M player.  The reaction of most people is that a price tag like that eliminates the Twins.  But, does it?
If Ohtani becomes a free agent, I think the Twins should make a quick offer of 8 years at a total of $480M (an AVV of $60M).  WTF? you say?  Why not?  You get a genuine "ace" and a top tier outfielder wrapped up in a single person.  The top three free agent pitchers in 2022 signed for an average AVV of $32M and the top three free agent hitters signed for an average AVV of $27M (or $59M combined).  The offer looks outrageous but it is in line with the going rate.  It also frees up an additional roster spot!  And, from what I am hearing on MLB radio and TV, the merchandise sales in Japan alone might cover the entire salary.  It is certainly worth taking a shot at signing Ohtani.  Tell his agent it is your BAFO (best and final offer) and is good only for 24 hours.  If he signs, great.  If he doesn't sign, you gave it your best shot.

This is one person's view concerning the possible upcoming free agency of Shohei Ohtani.
There have been many predictions that Ohtani may be the first $500M player.  The reaction of most people is that a price tag like that eliminates the Twins.  But, does it?
If Ohtani becomes a free agent, I think the Twins should make a quick offer of 8 years at a total of $480M (an AVV of $60M).  WTF? you say?  Why not?  You get a genuine "ace" and a top tier outfielder wrapped up in a single person.  The top three free agent pitchers in 2022 signed for an average AVV of $32M and the top three free agent hitters signed for an average AVV of $27M (or $59M combined).  The offer looks outrageous but it is in line with the going rate.  It also frees up an additional roster spot!  And, from what I am hearing on MLB radio and TV, the merchandise sales in Japan alone might cover the entire salary.  It is certainly worth taking a shot at signing Ohtani.  Tell his agent it is your BAFO (best and final offer) and is good only for 24 hours.  If he signs, great.  If he doesn't sign, you gave it your best shot.

Although the Twins are really hurting for viable future catching yet it seems like Ricardo Olivar is totally off the Twins radar. In '22, Olivar was named the MVP of the FCL, FCL post season All-Star catcher and FCL player of the month in July. Although he's listed at catcher, where he played the most of his games, he still played a lot of games at CF and some at 2B and cOFs. He's also good defensively w/ above average arm.
Season Team Level Age G PA HR R RBI SB BB% K% ISO BABIP AVG OBP SLG wOBA   wRC+         2021 MIN FCL 19 34 59 1 5 5 3 13.6% 28.8% .143 .290 .204 .339 .347 .336   92         2022 MIN FCL 20 40 154 5 16 23 5 11.7% 21.4% .256 .430 .349 .442 .605 .480   181 He got drafted in '19 but didn't start pro ball until '21 because of covid. Like a lot of these prospects during this time their development stopped & they became stagnant. The problem is he turned 21 last Aug, & that's a little old for rookie ball. My hope is like Endy Rodriguez exploding this year going from A to AAA, Olivar will do this coming year starting at A ball. Endy was Rule 5 draft eligible this year & Ricardo will be next year.
Ricardo didn't even make TD's honorable mention but he's been on my radar & I'll be tracking him this coming year. 

I was thinking about the Arizona Fall League (hereafter referred to as AFL) and how to improve it.  I don't like that only a limited number of Twins' players are allowed to participate.  My conclusion is to dump the AFL and replace it with the FPL (the Fall Prospect League).  The FPL would consist of two divisions (Florida and Arizona) and be based at the spring training facilities of each MLB team..  The players selected for each franchise's 30-player roster would consist of any minor leaguers (including current year draft picks) that the parent team wants to get extra playing time and major leaguers that finished the season on the 60-day IL and want to get some rehab done.  The structure of each team would be in the hands of the parent club.  The adding and deleting of players on the roster would be loosely monitored.  For example, if Alex Kirilloff wanted to test out his surgically repaired wrist for a couple weeks, that would be acceptable.  The season would run from October to mid-December and finish with a three-game championship playoff.  The playoff site would be at the home field of either the Florida champion or the Arizona champion and alternate each year.
That is my proposal.  Now you may rip it to shreds, tell me how stupid it is, and propose something even better. ???

I was watching a game today and paid extra attention to the catcher.  He is considered one of the worst pitcher framers in the game.  He wasn't too fluid in his motions but he also did not have much to work with.  How is good pitch framing defined?  Is it the number of strikes called by the umpire that technology determined were not really in the strike zone?  If that is a true statement, then I think there is an inherent problem.  If a pitch is slightly out of the zone and the catcher pulls it into the zone and it’s called a strike, he gets credit for pith framing.  But what about the catcher that is behind the plate for a pitcher that always misses by three inches instead of a half inch?  He gets no credit for pitch framing.  But is he really worse at it?  The best pitch framers might be the catchers on teams that have the pitchers with the most control.  I don’t know the answer so everyone can enlighten me.

Here is my theoretical letter to the Twins ownership and to the agent for Byron Buxton concerning to current negotiations to extend Buxton’s contract.
A Letter to Falvey/Levine/Pohlad and B.B. Abbott
Dear Sirs:
It is my understanding that all of you are in basic agreement concerning the base salary for an extension for Byron Buxton and that the holdup is the incentives.  Because your negotiations are done in private (as they should be), I have no idea what the concerns of each side might be.  Here are my suggestions.
Make the base salary $12M per year beginning in 2022 and extending for an additional seven years for a total base contract of 8/$96M.  The incentive plan should be have a base with achievable goals and extending to difficult to reach goals with significant rewards for attaining them.  Below is a table showing some possible goals and bonuses attached to each goal.  The minimum amount of bonus that can be earned would be $8M and is based on Buxton having an above league average season for an outfielder.  The maximum attainable bonus would be $21.5M but would mean that Buxton would be the best player in baseball.  But the amount of the bonus would be offset partially by increased revenues caused by every baseball fan in America wanting to see Buxton play in person.
Games 100 120 130 140 150 160         Bonus $1.0M $1.25M $1.5M $1.75M $2.0M $2.5M         Hits 140 160 180 200 220 240         Bonus $1.0M $1.25M $1.5M $1.75M $2.0M $2.5M         Home Runs 20 25 30 35 40 45         Bonus $1.0M $1.25M $1.5M $1.75M $2.0M $2.5M         Stolen Bases 20 25 30 35 40 45         Bonus $1.0M $1.25M $1.5M $1.75M $2.0M $2.5M         MVP Voting 10th 9th 8th 7th 6th 5th 4th 3rd 2nd 1st Bonus $1.0M $1.25M $1.5M $1.75M $2.0M $2.5M $3.0M $3.5M $4.0M $5.0M Gold Glove Voting 3rd 2nd 1st               Bonus $1.5M $3.0M $4.5M               Platinum Glove Voting 1st                   Bonus $2.0M                     I understand that this commitment would be a significant financial investment but only if Buxton provides the level of performance that should be rewarded.  If you have any questions, I can be reached through Twins Daily.
 

Here is my theoretical letter to the Twins ownership and to the agent for Byron Buxton concerning to current negotiations to extend Buxton’s contract.
A Letter to Falvey/Levine/Pohlad and B.B. Abbott
Dear Sirs:
It is my understanding that all of you are in basic agreement concerning the base salary for an extension for Byron Buxton and that the holdup is the incentives.  Because your negotiations are done in private (as they should be), I have no idea what the concerns of each side might be.  Here are my suggestions.
Make the base salary $12M per year beginning in 2022 and extending for an additional seven years for a total base contract of 8/$96M.  The incentive plan should be have a base with achievable goals and extending to difficult to reach goals with significant rewards for attaining them.  Below is a table showing some possible goals and bonuses attached to each goal.  The minimum amount of bonus that can be earned would be $8M and is based on Buxton having an above league average season for an outfielder.  The maximum attainable bonus would be $21.5M but would mean that Buxton would be the best player in baseball.  But the amount of the bonus would be offset partially by increased revenues caused by every baseball fan in America wanting to see Buxton play in person.
Games 100 120 130 140 150 160         Bonus $1.0M $1.25M $1.5M $1.75M $2.0M $2.5M         Hits 140 160 180 200 220 240         Bonus $1.0M $1.25M $1.5M $1.75M $2.0M $2.5M         Home Runs 20 25 30 35 40 45         Bonus $1.0M $1.25M $1.5M $1.75M $2.0M $2.5M         Stolen Bases 20 25 30 35 40 45         Bonus $1.0M $1.25M $1.5M $1.75M $2.0M $2.5M         MVP Voting 10th 9th 8th 7th 6th 5th 4th 3rd 2nd 1st Bonus $1.0M $1.25M $1.5M $1.75M $2.0M $2.5M $3.0M $3.5M $4.0M $5.0M Gold Glove Voting 3rd 2nd 1st               Bonus $1.5M $3.0M $4.5M               Platinum Glove Voting 1st                   Bonus $2.0M                     I understand that this commitment would be a significant financial investment but only if Buxton provides the level of performance that should be rewarded.  If you have any questions, I can be reached through Twins Daily.
 

Here is my theoretical letter to the Twins ownership and to the agent for Byron Buxton concerning to current negotiations to extend Buxton’s contract.
A Letter to Falvey/Levine/Pohlad and B.B. Abbott
Dear Sirs:
It is my understanding that all of you are in basic agreement concerning the base salary for an extension for Byron Buxton and that the holdup is the incentives.  Because your negotiations are done in private (as they should be), I have no idea what the concerns of each side might be.  Here are my suggestions.
Make the base salary $12M per year beginning in 2022 and extending for an additional seven years for a total base contract of 8/$96M.  The incentive plan should be have a base with achievable goals and extending to difficult to reach goals with significant rewards for attaining them.  Below is a table showing some possible goals and bonuses attached to each goal.  The minimum amount of bonus that can be earned would be $8M and is based on Buxton having an above league average season for an outfielder.  The maximum attainable bonus would be $21.5M but would mean that Buxton would be the best player in baseball.  But the amount of the bonus would be offset partially by increased revenues caused by every baseball fan in America wanting to see Buxton play in person.
Games 100 120 130 140 150 160         Bonus $1.0M $1.25M $1.5M $1.75M $2.0M $2.5M         Hits 140 160 180 200 220 240         Bonus $1.0M $1.25M $1.5M $1.75M $2.0M $2.5M         Home Runs 20 25 30 35 40 45         Bonus $1.0M $1.25M $1.5M $1.75M $2.0M $2.5M         Stolen Bases 20 25 30 35 40 45         Bonus $1.0M $1.25M $1.5M $1.75M $2.0M $2.5M         MVP Voting 10th 9th 8th 7th 6th 5th 4th 3rd 2nd 1st Bonus $1.0M $1.25M $1.5M $1.75M $2.0M $2.5M $3.0M $3.5M $4.0M $5.0M Gold Glove Voting 3rd 2nd 1st               Bonus $1.5M $3.0M $4.5M               Platinum Glove Voting 1st                   Bonus $2.0M                     I understand that this commitment would be a significant financial investment but only if Buxton provides the level of performance that should be rewarded.  If you have any questions, I can be reached through Twins Daily.
 

You have all been very patient waiting for my 2019-2020 offseason plan. Your patience is now rewarded as I present to you the master plan for winning the 2020 World Series. {Cue the calliope.} This plan includes six free agency signings, one major trade, three contract extensions, and one token raise as a reward for a great year.
 
The Trade to End All Trades
Step one is to call the Arizona Diamondbacks and offer them the opportunity to greatly improve their day-to-day lineup. The Twins send to Arizona Eddie Rosario, Zander Weil, Brent Rooker, and Nick Gordon to help them shore up their corner outfield positions, 2B, and 1B. In return, the Twins receive Robbie Ray and Kevin Ginkel. “Kevin Who”, you ask? During 2018 and 2019, in Double A and Triple A, Ginkel pitched 105 and a third innings allowing only 65 hits and 26 walks for a WHIP of 0.867. He held opponents to a .176 batting average. He struck out 163 (13.96 per 9 innings) and gave up only 9 homeruns. He had a brief stint with the Diamondbacks in 2019 that mirrored his minor league success. He’s only 25 and he won’t be a free agent until 2025.
 
Free Agent Signings
Pitchers
Zach Wheeler at $18M a year for 4 years.
Drew Pomeranz at $3.5M a year for 2 years.
 
Hitters
IF/OF Brock Holt at $4.5M for 2 years.
OF Derek Dietrich at $9M for 2 years.
C Travis D’Arnaud at $3.5M for 2 years.
 
Derek Dietrich and Travis D’Arnaud can both play 1B and Brock Holt plays anything but catcher and shortstop.
 
Extensions
 
Miguel Sano at $12M a year for 3 years.
Byron Buxton at $5.5M a year for 3 years.
Jose Berrios at $$7.5M a year for 3 years.
 
Token Raise
Give Mitch Garver a raise to $1M for 2020.
 
This gives the Twins a 2020 roster that looks like this:
 
26 players at $145.90M.
 
C Mitch Garver $1M
1B Marwin Gonzalez $9M
2B Luis Arraez $0.6M
3B Miguel Sano $12M
SS Jorge Polanco $4M
LF Derek Dietrich $9M
CF Byron Buxton $5.5M
RF Max Kepler $6.3M
DH Nelson Cruz $12M
OF Brock Holt $4.5M
IF Ehire Adrianza $3M
C Travis D'Arnaud $3.5M
C Willians Astudillo $0.6M
OF LaMonte Wade, Jr. $0.6M
SP Jake Odorizzi $18.7M
SP Jose Berrios $7.5M
SP Kyle Gibson $7M
SP Zach Wheeler $18M
RP Randy Dobnak $0.6M
RP Taylor Rogers $4
RP Tyler Duffey $1.3M
RP Trevor May $2.5M
RP Zack Littell $0.6M
RP Kevin Ginkel $0.6M
RP Drew Pomeranz $3.5M
Perez Buyout $0.5M
 
The top five prospects remain with the Twins. Filling the 40-man roster becomes easier. And the Twins waltz through 2020 with the best winning percentage since the 1954 Indians. What do you think????

I went back to a January 18, 2017 blog by Brandon Warne in which he predicted the Twins would win 80 games and asked readers to comment and make their own predictions. The blog was eight pages long but by page five, the predictions stopped and the criticisms of the team began. Most of the negative comments were about how horrible the Twins defense would by in 2017, especially at third base with Miguel Sano~. Here is a summary of the predictions that I found:
 
Brandon Warne: 80
Wsnydes: 70-75
PseudoSABR: 70s
Tom Froemming: high 60s
Mazeville: 80+
Jimmer: low 70s
Diehardtwinsfan: 80 at best
Halsey Hall: 75-80
Jandersh: 70
Einstein1: less than 70
Han Joelo: 75
Platoon: 73-75
wiesbadenDAN: 75
beckmt: 75-80
nytwinsfan: 75
Doomtints: 70
DocBauer: 70-75
Brock Beauchamp: they will spend the entire year under .500
Bk432: 75
Oldgoat_MN: 70-75
 
Only two people (10%) predicted at least 80 wins and only three others (15%) said 80 was an outside possibility if all the stars aligned. Simple math tells us that 75% of Twins Daily posters on this blog blew it.

I went back to a January 18, 2017 blog by Brandon Warne in which he predicted the Twins would win 80 games and asked readers to comment and make their own predictions. The blog was eight pages long but by page five, the predictions stopped and the criticisms of the team began. Most of the negative comments were about how horrible the Twins defense would by in 2017, especially at third base with Miguel Sano~. Here is a summary of the predictions that I found:
 
Brandon Warne: 80
Wsnydes: 70-75
PseudoSABR: 70s
Tom Froemming: high 60s
Mazeville: 80+
Jimmer: low 70s
Diehardtwinsfan: 80 at best
Halsey Hall: 75-80
Jandersh: 70
Einstein1: less than 70
Han Joelo: 75
Platoon: 73-75
wiesbadenDAN: 75
beckmt: 75-80
nytwinsfan: 75
Doomtints: 70
DocBauer: 70-75
Brock Beauchamp: they will spend the entire year under .500
Bk432: 75
Oldgoat_MN: 70-75
 
Only two people (10%) predicted at least 80 wins and only three others (15%) said 80 was an outside possibility if all the stars aligned. Simple math tells us that 75% of Twins Daily posters on this blog blew it.