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James Richter

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Everything posted by James Richter

  1. James Richter
    4 more like that please, Meyer! Consistency is key...
  2. James Richter
    Everything is magnified this early. "Winless through 7 games" can overstate how close most of these games were. The fundamental issues Nick raises are definitely a concern. But we shouldn't lose sight of the fact that there has been some unsustainable un-clutchness so far: -The team has about half the BABIP and 30% more Ks with RISP than they do overall. -Our best bullpen guys have all blown at least one high-leverage situation. It's maddening, but better times are ahead.
  3. James Richter
    Me too - but either way I think it's a good decision.
  4. James Richter
    All of this makes sense. Berrios will be called on soon enough. How many other teams in the league can actually improve their rotation by having one of their "Top 5" starters go down?
  5. James Richter
    IIRC, the laugher of that season was a 23-2 drubbing of the Indians, in which Reed was totally in control... apart from the 2 dingers he served up to Thome.
  6. James Richter
    I also liked Bremer's call on the one Thome hit off the top of the flagpole - "Oh my goodness gracious!" as it left the bat, wasn't it?
  7. James Richter
    It may be splitting hairs, but I think this is the more apt way to think about it. Complacency would be not caring at all how good the team on the field is, or what the fans think about it. Like the Marlins, or the Cubs for most of the last century. The Bill Smith era was a time of uncharacteristic risk taking for the franchise. Lengthy extensions for Mauer, Moreau, Cuddyer, Nathan, Baker and (gulp) Blackburn. Trading Santana, Garza, Gomez, Hardy and Ramos. Expensive international signings like Sano, Kepler and (gulp) Nishioka. Only in the draft did they play it safe, probably because they so rigidly held to recommended slot values. 4 years of riskier transactions, at the end of which a team that had been successful for a decade was in shambles. Being risk averse to begin with, I'm not surprised that the Twins have had a reaction back toward "safer" moves, especially in the midst of the rebuild. But, like Bill, Mike and some other posters, I hope they'll have the guts to pay what it takes to fill roster holes with impactful additions now that their window of contention is opening again.
  8. James Richter
    While we can't correlate the increase in Ks to the concussion, there does seem to be a significant drop-off in contact authority since the injury. According to Fangraphs, Mauer's only seasons from 2004-2013 with a hard-hit average below 30% were his rookie year & 2011. From 2007-2013 it was typical for his hard-hit average to be around 37% - 3 out of every 8 BIP. 2014 & 2015 have each been below 30%, however, as well as having fly ball percentages well off his career norms.
  9. James Richter
    This is the trap the Twins have to avoid this season. The talent level at the upper minors is rising to the point that "fine" isn't good enough, particularly by midseason. I will be following Nolasco's first 4 spring training appearances with particular interest. If he can impress scouts during the first half of March, he suddenly becomes tradeable. By mid-March, multiple teams will have had a projected starter get hurt, and will be looking for a solid veteran to fill in. He could be an option for them, especially if the Twins throw in some money in the deal. Short & long term, I think the Twins are best off recouping what they can for Nolasco and moving him out of the way.
  10. James Richter
    Personally, I wouldn't characterize less than 2.0 WAR as an optimistic projection for Park at all. While they certainly may choose to give Suzuki the lion's share of the playing time this season, I'll be very surprised and disappointed if that turns out to be the case. As for the floor, another big factor I see holding it up is the quality depth they have in the upper minors. The Twins' top 25 players aren't so outstanding that their production can't be replaced by Berrios, Burdi, Chargois, Polanco, Kepler, etc. They're much better positioned to sustain injuries to "key starters" than the other teams in the division.
  11. James Richter
    How about if we say "higher upside than the presumed veteran incumbent?" It seems to me that May is only a long-shot for the rotation because there are so many tenured guys on the roster. I also want to point out that, though the projections have the Twins at the bottom of the standings, they're only 6 games behind the leaders. And while I think most of their rate stat projections are plausible, there's a lot to quibble with in Fangraphs' current depth chart. They have Suzuki getting 100 more PA than Murphy, Escobar only making half the starts at SS, Dozier, Plouffe and Buxton all providing negative defensive value. I'm certainly expecting things to go differently in those areas, which is mainly why I see 78 wins as more of a floor.
  12. James Richter
    If they pass on Nolasco and Milone in favor of Duffey and May, that's a couple hundred IP right there.
  13. James Richter
    Buxton's 1st 99 PA: .194/.235/.269, .305 BABIP, 34/4 K/BB After (39 PA): .250/.289/.472, .292 BABIP, 10/2 K/BB Last 6 GS (23 PA): .333/.391/.714, .357 BABIP, 5/1 K/BB All SSS caveats apply, but there's a very positive trend there for him over the final weeks of the season. He's got the wheels to sustain a BABIP well over .300 (as he did in the minors). He's clearly going to provide the most defensive value and should be a terror on the bases. I think they should run him out there in April (starting in the #9 spot) and see how it goes...
  14. James Richter
    The rather pessimistic projections set a realistic floor for this team: a win total in the upper 70s (or, perhaps more accurately, a run differential of about -30). The season depends on how many innings go to high-upside young arms vs. safe but "meh" vets.
  15. James Richter
    Right - the relievers who had negative value in the 2nd half were: a Rule-5 guy they didn't want to lose (Graham), a fringe guy who has been DFA'd (Achter), and ALL the lefties. The plan to fix this seems to be: Perkins will be healthy, Abad won't tip his pitches, and O'Rourke, Rogers and Melotakis will be coming up soon anyway, so who needs Bastardo?
  16. James Richter
    Fien & Tonkin both performed pretty well in the 2nd half (2.51 & 2.65 FIP, respectively). They're going to need to increase their K%, but they're both capable of that. Of the guys who had negative value in the 2nd half, the only one projected to return is Perkins.
  17. James Richter
    It looks to me like they have a lot of confidence in the in-house guys. I hope that turns out to be warranted. It also looks like they're not going after it this year, like they're waiting for/hoping a few more of the prospects will arrive and seize jobs. I hope they will, too. But with the division projecting to be so competitive, any little edge they could add from day one could make a difference in taking a postseason spot a year earlier than expected.
  18. James Richter
    All that crazy intrigue around not letting any rival scouts watch Melotakis during instructionals makes me think the Twins are very high on him internally. If he's close, the 1-year deal for a Thornton or Cotts makes sense. Personally, I'd rather see them get Bastardo and take a flier on Marshall, though. They should absolutely be looking into Storen, too.
  19. James Richter
    Another reason to keep upgrading the bullpen - keep it close for this offense!
  20. James Richter
    If your #5 starter is league average, that's not bad. But the Twins #5 starter could be better than that. I'm hoping one of the teams that was pursuing Leake will decide to give up something decent for three below-market years from Milone. Take the money saved from his arb salary and put it toward a reliever who's about as good as May, and give May the rotation spot. A slightly higher payroll situation, but instead of 2 + 1 WAR from Milone starting and May relieving, they'd get 3 + 1 WAR from May starting and the new bullpen guy, plus maybe some extra value from whatever Milone fetched in trade. Taking nothing away from Milone - that's just how I'd prefer to see them allocate their resources.
  21. James Richter
    What about Puerto Rico? Kennys Vargas has hit .297/.383/.485 with 4 2B and 5 HR in 28 games for Mayaguez.
  22. James Richter
    Considering that 2 of those guys can be had for Nolasco money and then deployed only in high-leverage situations, I think the cost-benefit is pretty good. And read this: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-extra-value-of-having-an-elite-bullpen/
  23. James Richter
    Head-scratching, as usual.
  24. James Richter
    With the rotation looking solid but unspectacular, Perkins proving less than durable, Jepsen only controlled for 1 more year, and none of the prospects looking like locks for the 1st half, I don't think the Twins should be afraid to sign a consistent FA reliever. Soria for 3 years would probably be a good investment. They could afford to give up something similar to what the Tigers just paid to get K-Rod in a trade, too. And I like the Thornton idea or somebody similar. They should try to have the depth to send out shut-down guys in innings 6-9 from day one. Trade 2 starters and get May and Berrios in the rotation. They probably won't do worse than any of the locks, but I like their potential to do better.
  25. James Richter
    Yeah, given the BABIP and ISO he put up last season, turning 1/3 of his Ks into balls in play would have improved his 2015 slash to something like .284/.355/.400. Still way below Mauer's career standards, but a lot easier to swallow (all MLB 1B hit .259/.336/.444 last year).
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