verninski

As we near the final quarter of the MLB season, it’s a good time to take stock of Twins hitters’ performance this season.
To gauge which Twins hitters are having good seasons, I will compare each hitter’s 2022 numbers to their "average" season, then calculate how each player needs to perform for the remainder of 2022 to reach their average statline. In other words, what would it take for each player to have their average season? This approach has its flaws and doesn’t work for rookies, but it’s a fun thought exercise. This post is a little math-heavy -- I'll lay out some simple examples along the way. Let’s give it a go.
First, I calculate what an "average" 2022 season would be for each player. I start by estimating the number of games each player will play this season based on the share of games they have played to this point. For example, if a player has played 2/3 of all games so far, I estimate they will play 2/3 of the remaining games for a total of 108 games played (2/3 of 162) .
Then, using this final 2022 games-played number, I calculate how Twins batters would perform in the full 2022 season based only on their 162-game career averages from before this season. For example, if a player hit 30 doubles per 162 games before 2022 and is projected to play 2/3 of all games in 2022, their "average" 2022 season would include 108 games played and 20 doubles (2/3 of 30).

To assess whether a player is performing well or poorly in 2022, I compare their “average” season (above) to their real 2022 statistics, and calculate how each player would need to perform for the rest of the season in order to finish with their average season statline. For example, Gio Urshela's average projections estimate he will hit 14 homeruns in 2022; he currently has 11 homeruns, meaning he needs to hit 3 more before the season ends to have an average season.
This helps us gauge performance because, if a player needs to finish the year hitting like prime Barry Bonds to have their average season, that’s an indication they have had a rough season so far. Conversely, a player is probably having a good season if they can reach their career averages by hitting like a slumping Nick Punto for the final month and a half. 
The table below shows how each batter would need to perform in the final quarter of the season to finish 2022 with their "average" statline.
The red boxes highlight areas where players have a lot of work left to do. Green highlights areas where players are in good shape.

It’s immediately clear that Gary Sanchez and Max Kepler are unlikely to reach their career averages. I'm not holding my breath for them to combine for 33 homeruns and an OPS around 1.000 in the team's final 46 games.
Carlos Correa has been mildly underwhelming across the board in 2022, which is reflected by the hot stretch needed to achieve his average season. It’s not entirely out of the question for Correa to heat up and hit .290/.372/.626 with 9 homeruns the rest of the way, but it’s getting less likely by the day.
Polanco and Buxton are interesting cases, posting homerun and walk numbers that blow away their career averages, but both players have sacrificed their batting averages to do so. I think Twins fans have mixed feelings about their approaches to hitting.
Urshela has been solid all season, which shows in the mediocre numbers he needs to reach his career averages.
And finally, clearly, Luis Arraez has been outstanding in 2022. He could probably hit .237 down the stretch with one arm tied behind his back.
Thanks for reading!
 

The Twins franchise has lost key games to many legends over time: Koufax, Yastrzemski, most of the 21st century Yankees, and... Eric Fox?

That name may not be familiar, but if you followed the 1992 season with hopes of a repeat championship, Eric Fox played a large role in crushing those hopes.
As they did in 1991, the 1992 Twins started slow in April, but warmed up in May and June, and finally took sole possession of first place after a marathon 15-inning win vs. Baltimore on Independence Day, July 4th. Entering a 3-game showdown with the second-place Oakland Athletics from July 27-29, the Twins held first place by 3 games, as well as the best record in MLB.
The series should have favored the Twins: it was held in the Metrodome, packed with friendly fans off the excitement of 1991, and two of Oakland's stars, Rickey Henderson and Jose Canseco, were hobbled by injury. In their absence, the 28-year-old rookie non-prospect Fox was thrust into the A's outfield and leadoff spot, just 3 weeks after his major league debut. But Oakland won the first two games, prompting Twins GM Andy MacPhail to say "It looks like God wants a pennant race." Fox contributed 4 hits in 10 at-bats over those two games, which kept him in the leadoff spot for the third and final game of the series despite the returns of Canseco and Henderson.
In that third game, 30 years ago today (July 29, 1992), Bill Krueger out-dueled Dave Stewart for 8 innings before Rick Aguilera came on in the 9th to protect both a 4-2 lead in the game and a 1-game lead in the division. Back-to-back singles brought up the potential go-ahead in Henderson, who would have been a logical hero, but baseball heroes aren't always logical: Henderson flew out for the first out of the inning. The next batter was Eric Fox.
The switch-hitting Fox hit a 1-1 pitch off the facing of the Metrodome's upper deck in right field for a 3-run home run, giving the A's a 5-4 lead. After the game, Fox said, "Definitely the biggest hit in my life. Twenty-eight years worth. He came inside on me, and I just turned on it. The first thing I thought was that I might have turned on it too much. But I had that certain feeling."
Dennis Eckersley, on his way to a Cy Young Award, retired the Twins in order in the bottom of the 9th to secure the victory, the sweep, and his 33rd save in as many chances that season.

The 1992 Twins quickly faded into second place, as God's interest in a pennant race must have waned.
But the hero Fox quickly faded too, finishing his major league career with a .198 batting average and 5 home runs in 290 plate appearances spread across four seasons. He'd show at least one more flair for the dramatic, though: on Opening Day in 1993, with Oakland clinging to a late 1-run lead against Detroit, Fox would hit a pinch-hit grand slam for insurance.
Does God want a pennant race in 2022? The Twins' most recent games against Chicago and Cleveland might suggest that, and the Twins are scheduled to play them a combined 17 times over their final 33 games. If there is a 2022 version of Eric Fox, we can only hope God places him on the Twins this time.

On the day of this article being written, the Twins were rained out in Anaheim of all places and so my thirst for Twins content remained strong (evidently the field’s thirst for water was not, but that’s a joke for a different time). And so what else can I do except scroll through the usual suspects of baseball stat sites in order to find some weird and wacky stuff to write about. What did I find? Well, a lot of crazy stuff for sure, Joey Gallo’s BABIP for one, Ryan Pressly’s walk rate (or lack thereof) for another (but that’s a touchy subject), and the Twins bullpen rank among all major league teams which is *checks notes*, *double takes*... 8th in MLB in fWAR?
 
Yes, as this article is being typed out in the late hours of the night at my university’s library, the much maligned Twins bullpen sits at 8th in all of MLB in fWAR. I assume this may come as a surprise to many and hell, even I’m a little shocked that they’re that high even knowing these stats that Dustin Morse tweeted out a few days ago:
 

 
Some eyebrow raising stuff for sure, maybe the narratives don’t actually match up with the stats? Although, Trevor May’s ERA jumped up to 4.00 since this was tweeted which is somewhat indicative of the kind of sample size we are still working with, but the numbers remain interesting nonetheless. How can the one part of the team that most everyone seems to lament actually be a strength when compared to the rest of MLB as a whole? Well first, people like to complain, but we knew this. But beyond that, the bullpen is doing many things well.
 
Rest! An important thing for pitchers and college students alike has been crucial for the bullpen so far as they have thrown just the 4th fewest amount of innings in baseball. Unsurprisingly, the Twins starting pitching staff has thrown the 4th most innings in baseball thanks to their 3.5* aces. So the lack of need for the bullpen to extend themselves has not just kept them rested but has also allowed the best arms to not be run into the ground and thusly has helped keep the relievers at their best. This is important now but will also set them apart from other teams later in the year as other teams start to see their guys break down due to overuse while everything (hopefully) stays lovely and peachy in Minnesota.
 
*Kyle Gibson’s peripherals notwithstanding
 
Like a cup over an unwelcome spider, the Twins bullpen has actually been very good at containing the game. While that isn’t exactly the most ringing of endorsements regarding the effectiveness of the unit, not allowing the game to blow up is really all they need to do currently as the offense and starting pitching continue to roll. Fangraphs has a useful stat called Meltdowns that can be read about here, (basically it’s based on Win Probability Added) and the Twins bullpen as a whole has the 6th least amount of meltdowns in baseball, meaning that the have limited the negative effect they could have on the Twins chance of winning a given game and their total clutch factor is the 6th highest in baseball.
 
So, given all of these nerd stats, why does it feel like they aren’t that good? Well the Twins have just the 16th best bullpen ERA despite being 7th in FIP and at the end of the day, preventing runs is the point of the game (remember that FIP only includes strikeouts, walks, homeruns, and innings pitched). Plus, the Twins only have 4 guys currently in their bullpen who hold a FIP under 3.50 (3 if you ignore Austin Adams and his hilarious -0.92 FIP), meaning that you could really only designate Taylor Rogers, Ryne Harper, and Matt Magill as the “statistically trustworthy” relievers (Blake Parker’s FIP is almost 3 points higher than his ERA if you are wondering where he is there).
 
They also currently hold the 3rd highest bullpen BABIP in baseball despite having the 11th lowest hard hit % and by far the highest infield fly % so it can actually be expected for them to see some more luck go their way regarding balls put into play (especially Taylor Rogers, a .396 BABIP for him is entirely too high to sustain), so their level of runs given up so far this year isn’t fully reflective of how well they have actually done as a group in other statistics.
 
The biggest issue regarding the bullpen and the reason why I believe most fans are uncertain about them is that the relievers are, for the most part, unproven. Rogers and Parker have cemented themselves as quote unquote “dudes”, but beyond that, who is the next most trusted guy? Ryne “real men have curves” Harper and his 20 ⅓ career innings? Trevor May and his 5.00 BB/9 on the year? Matt Magill who is just getting his footing after missing most of spring training? Until each reliever gets more innings so that they can show precisely how much Rocco Baldelli can them, it will be an interesting adventure, especially if the game is tight and the starter did not pitch deep into the ballgame.
 
Another concern is that the bullpen somewhat lacks the punch out firepower that every great bullpen seemingly has, they fall in with a respectable 9.53 K/9 that ranks 12th in MLB but this comes with the 6th worst bullpen swinging strike % in baseball which means they are fooling less people than a bad guy in a Scooby-Doo cartoon. Individually, they only have 4 relievers in their bullpen with a K/9 above 9 (3 if you ignore Austin Adams) and only 1 reliever currently has a swinging strike % above 12% (Tyler Duffey, who also leads in K/9, huh) so again, the firepower is lacking. But as a whole? These guys have actually been pretty good, so lay off them for now.

This blog entry will be sweet and short. The Twins are 14-12 on Cinco De Mayo. Last year on May 5 the team was already eliminated from playoff contention, at least it felt like at 8-20.
 
But this year baseball is fun because the team is winning. Many of the guys helping the team win are guys who will be part of the future of this team. Miguel Sano, Byron Buxton, Jorge Polanco, Max Kepler and Eddie Rosario.
 
However, anytime one mistake is made or a move is or isn't made by the front office the complaints come out in full force. A handful of fans don't like the new front office and think these new guys have same philosophies as the old regime and complain, complain, complain.
 
They want Berrios up even though he might not be ready yet, they wanted Gibson sent to AAA and when he was they complained it took too long. They complain about Nick Tepesch, even though he might be an ok back end starter. Danny Santana . . . . Ok, I understand that complaint.
 
But my point is, let's enjoy the winning and fun baseball team we are watching right now. I trust the front office even though I too scratch my head on some moves. I think we are watching the beginning of what will become a very good baseball team in the coming years.