IndianaTwin

Agree that it depends on situation. I think they give May and Meyer at least a month or so in Rochester. If they need someone because of injury in the first few weeks, Pelfrey is probably still stretched out and would get the nod. If it goes much beyond that, Pelfrey will either have 1) pitched too poorly in the bullpen to be considered for the rotation; or 2) pitched well enough in the bullpen to be deemed too valuable to take out of that role. I'd be glad to have option 2 work itself out. I still think it could happen.

Loved this recounting, Tom. There is so much similarity to my own story as an 11-year-old farm boy making his first and only trip to the Met. I say “trip” because we had actually gone to the game the day before as well. To add to the Glenn Adams story, he had gotten booed pretty badly during Saturday’s game, a disappointing 7-1 loss on a similarly hot and muggy day. He had misplayed a ball in right field, though no error was charged, so getting eight RBIs the next day was no doubt extra sweet. Another memory from the day is that the game was halted at one point because a drunk fan had climbed part way up the left field foul pole. It seemed like they were announcing a new team record every inning, and each time I see a copy of a Twins media guide I check to see how many records still stand from that day. One of the announced records was the crowd of 46,463. I know for a fact, however, that the crowd was at least two less than that. The t-shirt giveaway was only for kids under a certain age, and the brother-in-law who had taken me to the game wanted one of his own. He bought an extra two tickets for the cheap seats in left. We went in, I got my t-shirt, and we exited. Then, we went to the first-base side, where our other tickets were, and went in again so that we could get a second shirt. And like you, I didn’t get back to see the Twins until they were in the Dome. It was the spring of 1985, when I went to visit my then-girlfriend, now wife, near the end of her first year at a small college in the Twin Cities.

Thanks for the reminder on the Yankee Stadium effect, though wouldn't at least ERA+ have adjusted for that? My underlying point is that a year ago, there was a fair amount of skepticism on this site about the possibilities for Hughes. People do respond differently to injuries, however, and I still wonder if there is learning to be had on how much of Pelfrey's injuries of the past two years were below the neck and how much was above.

To be clear, I'm NOT saying that Pelfrey ought to be handed the No. 5 job, or even have first dibs at it -- I'm just saying that if you're choosing from among several guys who have demonstrated at least some level of potential in the past, what's the harm in one more still being in the picture during spring training? Yes, I understand the "but you're taking away opportunities from others," but I'm not convinced. As I mentioned in an earlier post, the average AL team had about a fourh of its starts last year come from people who were not in the opening day rotation. Cream will rise, and if May and Meyer are as good as advertised, they will pitch their way to the top. The average AL team had 9-10 different guys start last year -- some had as many as 13, I think it was. Someone outside of the Hughes, Nolasco, Gibson, Santana, May, Meyer, and Millone WILL likely be needed this year, and I'm not averse to Pelfrey still being considered for one of those spots. True, there was a point when we had to acknowledge that Willie Banks wasn't Cy Young, but I'm not convinced that Pelfrey is there yet. Put another way, if we harped on Gardy and Anderson, I'd rather let Molitor and Allen make the final decision on whether any past potential is indeed gone.

I'm going to stick my head out of my lunch booth for a couple minutes, make a comment, and then duck back in before stuff starts flying at me. Stats from 2010-13 IP ERA+ H/9 HR/9 BB/9 WAR SO/W Pitcher A: 588.0 91 9.4 1.4 2.6 3.1 2.77 Pitcher B: 570.0 88 10.1 0.7 3.0 3.8 1.75 I am fired up about the season Pitcher A gave us last year and looking forward to him getting that extra third of an inning he needs for a bonus. But I'm not ready to give up on Pitcher Bike Belfrey. Short leash? Sure. Top candidate for No. 5 spot? Probably not. Better suited for a relief role? Perhaps. But he was once seen in the same breath as Hughes and was seen as having just as high a ceiling. New manager, new pitching coach whose known to do well with reclamation projects. Don't riot yet. Give peace (and maybe even this guy) a chance. (Ducking back for cover.)

Of course Mauer hits into a lot of double plays. He fits the profile. He hits behind guys with little power, he doesn't strike out that much, and he hits the ball hard enough to not be able to beat it out. But for every GIDP, there's probably another 1st and 3rd situation. I'd be glad to have any of the career leaders in GIDP batting second on my team -- Ripken, Pudge, Aaron, Yaz, Winfield, Murray, Rice...

The 15 AL teams used from 7 to 15 starters last year, averaging 10.33. (The Twins used 12, by the way). So, there's a pretty good likelihood that Hughes, Gibson, Nolasco, Meyer, May, Milone, and Pelfrey aren't enough to get through the season. Given that, I'll gladly add Santana to the mix. On average, the first five pitchers to start a game started 109.33 games for that team. Perhaps not surprisingly, the four teams that got at least 120 starts out of their first five starters all made the playoffs. (The Twins got 118 out of Nolasco, Correia, Hughes, Pelfrey, and Gibson.) So, there's also a pretty good chance that about a third of the games will get started by guys who aren't in the rotation at the beginning of the year. If Meyer and May don't make the rotation out of spring training, it seems almost a certainty that they will get opportunities if they stay healthy and effective in either Rochester or the bullpen.