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DocBauer

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Blog Entries posted by DocBauer

  1. DocBauer
    I am very pro Gardenhire, overall. Though he and I do butt heads on occasion. Though I suppose he doesn't realize this on a daily basis or concern himself much with it.
     
    At 56, Gardy is still a relatively young man. I see no relative signs of slowing down. But he has made comment in the recent past about wanting to manage the Twins, at least, until the signs of rebuilding and turnaround are apparent. In theory, the talent on the roster now, the deep talent in the minors that will hopefully explode on the scene soon, along with a little bit better luck in the health category, and the overall better competitive nature of this years team, has had some conjecturing when that step-down date for Gardy might be.
     
    Now, he might pull a TK this season, or next, and say its time; the team and it's future is solid and it's time to move on. Or, the team might be playing well, the top prospects are healthy and playing well, and he might stick around a little longer. Who could blame him?
     
    But since the subject has been broached, whether it be at the end of this season...next..or another season or two, who is the next Twins manager?
     
    I think Molitor would be an excellent choice, but didn't realize until recently that he's actually a year older than Gardenhire. And while I wouldn't say he couldn't or wouldn't do/take the job, I wonder at his past few years and wonder if he wouldn't just be happier as a coach or instructor now vs being the guy.
     
    Brunansky is 53 and a well respected hitting coach with a seeming ability to connect to his players.
     
    Doug Mientkiewicz, 39, and Jake Mauer, 35, are a pair of young former Twins, managing in A ball, who have shown success, moxy, and baseball management/coaching skills that could have them both fast tracking.
     
    The Twins may have missed the boat on Mike Redmond, who is already a big league manager with the Marlins at 41. Still, if things sour in Miami, as they have been known to do in the past, he may be an option.
     
    Matthew LeCroy is another former Twin who slipped through our fingers. The former C/DH is currently the Nationals bullpen coach. I believe he could be someone to watch.
     
    You can scoff all you want at the Twins general philosophy of staying and promoting from within, but most of the track history the past 25 years indicates that they generally surround themselves with pretty smart talent.
  2. DocBauer
    Reportedly, numbers never lie.
     
    Except, we all know this is false in the game of baseball. There are so many various statistics and measurements that can be used to make cases pro and con. And in the case of a hitter/position player, there are many various mitigating circumstances that influence their production. Not just a player's hot and cold streaks and adjustments, but also protection and batters on base in front of them.
     
    Through today, Saturday May 31st, his per AB numbers have him on pace to finish at 27 Dbls, (down from 32 last season), nearly identical HR numbers, 20 vs 19, and 89 RBI vs 93 in 2013.
     
    However, despite nearly identical numbers compared to last season, per AB, based on this season and last season's 457 AB's, or a slight regression this season, it should be pointed out that not only did Vargas start out a little slow out of the gate this season, but he's also up a level at AA, and unlike last season, there is no Buxton, Rosario or Sano to help carry the load.
     
    Further, compare his overall slash line:
     
    2013: .267Avg/ .344 OB%/ .468 SLG%/ .813 OPS
    2014: .324Avg/ .401 OB%/ .514 SLG%/ .914OPS
     
    Even more, he struck out at a rate of 23% percent per AB in 2013, and walked at an 11% rate, all based on 457 AB's for the season.
     
    Thus far in 2014, in 185 AB's, he is striking out at a 17% rate, and walking at a 13% rate.
     
    Granted, these numbers are based on AB's and not plate appearances, but I doubt there would be much discrepancy.
     
    I believe this begs the question, "what happens next?"
     
    I would think this speaks of a promotion to Rochester soon, after the all star break to be sure. I think Vargas has crossed the line of: "coming up" to a possible September call up and a possible bat for the 2015 Twins.
  3. DocBauer
    Is it actually possible that for the first time since Santana was a second year player in the bullpen pounding at the door to be let in to the rotation, that the Twins may soon have too much depth in the rotation?
     
    Cough or snicker for a moment if you must and then consider the following:
     
    Nolasco is still a relatively young veteran SP signed for production, innings and consistency for 3 more years after this. He's coming off a couple solid seasons and his very best season. And after a rough start to this year, he's looking very much like the player we thought we were signing.
     
    The even younger and more talented Hughes is looking like a borderline stud. He's pitching like, or better, than hoped, and might be really finding himself with the Twins, and away from NY and Yankee stadium. (Is it too soon for an ironic, sarcastic "Anderson sucks" reference?)
     
    In his first full, completely healthy and one assumes unlimited season, Gibson is looking very much like the player we've been waiting for and wish we had had last season.
     
    Late bloomer Deduno, he of the best SP numbers on the staff last season before injury, is back in the rotation where he seems to belong, and off to a good start. Again, I worry about total IP limitations on him, but he just might be the best 170 IP, 28 starts #5 starter in baseball.
     
    Correia is gone at the end of this season, if not before. Unless he pulls some real magic out of his cap, Pelfrey may be following him out of town. Even if he does rebound somewhat, he might be gone for a bag of balls or nothing else as the Twins can not only afford to eat his contract next season, but there may simply be better options available as early as the second half of this season.
     
    As the numbers stand as of today, AAA Rochester is brimming with a trio of arms that should be ready soon.
     
    May: 3.35 ERA, 43 IP, 30 H, 17 BB, 47 SO, 1.09 Whip in 8 starts
    Meyer: 3.79 ERA 40.1 IP, 31 H, 21 BB, 49 SO, 1.29 Whip in 8 starts
    Darnell: 2.32 ERA, 31 IP, 26 H, 11BB, 33 SO, 1.19 Whip in 6 starts
     
    Two top, hard throwing prospects with big frames, IP and SO potential each having great success in their first seasons of AAA. Yes, they are young and have things to learn and work on and probably need more consistency. But numbers and reports don't always lie. And these two represent the best two top pitching prospects the Twins have had since probably Garza. And while each could most certainly be ready for serious competition in 2015 SP, I would argue that each may just be ready by the second half of the season. Yes the Twins want to win, and we want them to do so. But it's a very real possibility that either, or both, of these young men will give us the best chance to do so soon. After all, we are in rebuilding mode aren't we? And there is no question that talent and potential of May and Meyer blow away Correia and Pelfrey.
     
    But don't fall asleep on Darnell. The former top 10 pick doesn't throw as hard as May or Meyer, but reports have him consistently in the low 90's, left handed, never a bad thing, and according to recent reports from Darnell himself here at TD in an interview, gaining further comfort and confidence this season with his curve and change. His milb numbers don't look awesome at first glance, but the Twins did push him hard his second season, pitching at 3 different levels. His 3rd season was spent entirely at AA with mixed results, however, it was his first full season at the level, and only the second season of 3 where he was allowed to stay at a level. He has held a 3.41 ERA through his first 4+ seasons and a 2.55-1 SO to BB ratio.
     
    Still only 25, already with a cup of coffee with the Twins this season, interrupting his AAA season, working what may or may not be his first full season at Rochester, he's having the best season of his young career.
     
    Correia gone end of year if not sooner, Pelfrey's Twins career hanging by a thread with the ability to cut him loose.....are we looking at Nolasco, Hughes, Gibson, Deduno, May, Meyer and Darnell by next season? Or the second half of this season?
  4. DocBauer
    2014 was labeled, and I feel acurately, as a transition year for the Twins. A year where we begin to say goodbye to three disappointing and frustrating years of non-contention, bad baseball, and 90 loss seasons. A year where we begin to talk about a more competitive team who could threaten for a .500 record who has a legitimate chance to win nightly/daily. A team bridging the gap for higher expectations in 2015 and beyond.
     
    Despite disappointing setbacks to such talented prospects as Sano, Buxton and Rosario, the Twins boast one of the most talented minor leagues in all of baseball. And despite the setbacks to those potential difference makers, there is a very large contingent of talented prospects enjoying fine seasons in the minors and continuing their trek Northward.
     
    The Twins made an elaborate, for them, and unexpected foray in to FA this past offseason to shore up the teams biggest weakness, the starting rotation. A rotation to make the team competitive built around building blocks such as Mauer, Dozier, Pinto, Arcia, and those that might make their presence felt at some point this year and next, etc.
     
    Despite some early and disappointing failings, Hughes has been pitching anywhere from good to outstanding. Nolasco is warming up and looking very good these days. And despite a couple rough outings, Gibson has begun to perform like the top prospect we've been anxiously awaiting.
     
    However, despite a solid, overall consistent 2013, Correia has been a big disappointment so far. And while there were other options available that I liked better than Pelfrey, I couldn't really argue with the Twins re-signing based on projections of being a full year further removed from surgery and the tease of a couple very solid months pitched last season before running out of steam late.
     
    Correia looks nothing like the pitcher he was last year. Pelfrey looks even worse. Deduno, perhaps a far better than average 5th starter who simply can't handle the workload of a 30+ start schedule, is back in the rotation where he should be, and deserves to be.
     
    This leaves the Twins in need of one additional SP. Who is that person? I'm not saying the move takes place tomorrow. But first of June? Mid June? When and who?
     
    What say you?
  5. DocBauer
    I think think this is a good time to address this issue. Of all the positives we've seen so ar this season, SS seems to be a lighting topic. And despite the "sign Drew" advocates, this doesn't seem to be a real/impending possibility or a long term answer. So other than trade or next year signing possibility, where does that leave us?
     
    Florimon is outstanding defensively. We've all seen what he can do. And it's truly a pleasure to watch him. But the second half of last season didn't match the first half offensively. And despite optimism of improvement in his second full season, whether it be by recovery of appendix, bad timing or anything else, he unfortunately just doesn't seem capable of producing offensively at the ML level.
     
    Santana has caught the eye of Gardy and the staff. That can't be ignored. But there seemed to be nothing in ST games that allowed him to really set himself apart, no "moments" that allowed him to shine. But all reports have him as an athletic defender who has the potential to make the plays, as well as the offensive potential to hit some, get XB hits and steal some bases as well.
     
    Beresford has a universal report and numbers to back up that he is a very good glove man who hits and makes contact with a little bit of speed and decent OB numbers but zero power.
     
    Levi Michael has seemed like a wasted/over-reached pick until this early season. Is this an indication of a player who just took a little longer to figure things out? Maybe rushed slightly due to need and hope?
     
    Mejia is a great story. I confess to knowing nothing of this young man other than the fact he can hit and has probably jumped at least a full level plus based on age and experience. I have learned never to bet against a ball player who is a fast riser, but I don't know enough, truthfully about potential to make an educated opinion.
     
    Polanco. Now we have something to talk about. Signed as a SS with great potential, he has established himself, by all reports, as an outstanding 2B prospect who can seriously hit with a bit of power and speed. Not sure this young man has even reached his potential at any level yet as he keeps rising to the occasion. The Twins have asked him, with mixed results to be sure, to concentrate on the SSposition. This is clearly a means to measure his potential as well as a hopeful answer to the ML SS position long term.
     
    As a result of Polanco's play at SS, one of the most physically talented INF prospects in the entire Twins system, Niko Goodrum has been moved, at least temporarily, to 3B. And while this might ultimately prove beneficial overall, I have to wonder if it might slow the development of the best SS prospect, overall, in the entire system.
     
    As much as I support and love Dozier at 2B, I also wonder if he isn't our long term at SS. Rosario's suspension has thrown a big monkey wrench in to the the development of options. But it makes me wonder if Rosario or Polonco might not be the best option at 2B with an experienced and more mature Dozier sliding back over to SS.
  6. DocBauer

    Unsung Heroes

    By DocBauer,

    Health, some youngsters and a re-tread or two, FA SP signings, I had hopes for the 2014 Twins to make a little noise, and at least hover around the .500 mark for the season, with the possibility of finishing a few games above. A preview, if you will, for what might be coming over the next season or two with solid and elite prospects on their way to flush out the roster and competitive hopes.
     
    Poor showings, especially offensively, had me feeling down and re-assessing my thoughts the last few weeks of spring training. Yes, I know full well how little ST numbers and results can really mean. I've been down those roads many times before, to the positive as well as the negative.
     
    So far, this early season, the Twins ARE that .500+ team, despite a rotation that has underperformed thus far. The complete anti-thesis of what I, and I think most, expected.
     
    And there has been some really great story lines so far this season.
     
    Honestly, what would you have thought before the season began if I had told you the Twins early season success would hinge on the play of Dozier, Colabello, Plouffe, Kubel and Suzuki? And that our best SP was Gibson, who almost everyone felt was destined to begin the season in AAA ball?
     
    Unsung (unexpected?) Heroes.
     
    Dozier: Despite a low but climbing Avg, getting on base, stealing bases, scoring runs, hitting for power, playing great defense, and proving that last year was no fluke.
     
    Colabello: Maybe one of the best stories EVER in MLB can flat out hit and produce. Despite being ignored out of college and years in the beer leagues, the Twins picked him up as minor league filler and found a late bloomer who can flat out hit and produce. This guy knows how to make adjustments. If the dream ends tomorrow, the probably player of the month and record setter is already a great story!
     
    Plouffe: A former 1st round pick and top prospect who has shown time, patience, hard work and opportunity can pay real dividends. If not for Colabello, this guy is the big story.
     
    Kubel: Proving that getting healthy and going home is not only a good story, but a productive one as well.
     
    Suzuki: What? The right time and team? Better mental/physical health after being beaten in the ground previously? A better hitting coach? I don't know, but already better than EVER expected by anyone.
     
    (even Hicks has been more professional not flailing at pitches and taking walks)
     
    Gibson: Healthy, strong in mind and body following surgery and rehab to see his talent begin to emerge.
     
    I could almost throw Pinto in here as well, except, I think we almost expected his growth as much as we wanted it.
     
    What about the coaching staff? I can't believe there aren't multiple tips of the hat here, but mine goes to Bruno as the lead hitting instructor.
     
    The rotation rounds in to form, hopefully Arcia and possibly Hammer start to make a move in the near future, what are the possibilities for this team? For now though, let's take a moment to recognize these unsung heroes of the early 2014 season.
  7. DocBauer
    We have all dreamed, hypothesized, and written out the lineup, rotation and bullpen on napkins for the past 6 months. We've all scratched out, thought about it, and scribed again. The final 25 to begin the season is nearly complete. The only drama to begin the season is the final 12 th and 13th spots of the player roster. And IF you assume Barlett is gone and Presley is in, there is only one spot open to see.
     
    This year more than others, a transition year as some youngsters get their first promotion, eventually, and the team doing its best to avoid another 90 loss season, with dreams of being competitive, and keeping fan interest, we are all well aware of the fact that the team that begins the season will NOT be the team that finishes the season. It might not even be the same team that reaches the all star break. (Probably wont be)
     
    The Twins had, arguably, one of the better bullpens in baseball last season, or at least in the AL, and it will begin pretty much as it ended. They have taken aggressive and even somewhat surprising moves to shore up the rotation. And there are at least a handful of position players, at least to begin the season, that are seemingly a given.
     
    You get to play GM here. Ryan isn't full strength, and with all due respect to Antony, there exists the opportunity for someone to step forward to make a move or two now, or early season, to fill a hole or two to make our Twins a better club.
     
    The only requirement is you be realistic. The Dodgers aren't going to trade Kershaw for Diamond and Bernier plus an A pitcher.
     
    What say you at this point and near future to fill a hole or two to make our club more competitive?
     
    I have my own options, but will hold out offering them for now.
    (Spoiler: LF and DH)
  8. DocBauer
    Pitchers and catchers report!
     
    There are very few sweeter words in the English language. Time to roll out your Major League, Bull Durham and Field of Dreams DVD's (possibly For Love of the Game). Don't tell me I'm the only one!
     
    I have no illusions of a World Series appearance for the TC boys this year. I think it's clear we are a year or two away. And while arguments could be made the Twins haven't done enough to address all of their short comings this offseason, there is also no doubt the Twins have invested more FA money than any time in their history to improve a pretty pathetic pitching staff. I don't think there is any doubt Nolasco, Hughes, a year removed from TJ surgery Pelfrey, Correia and whoever is short of a contending staff, but still filled with more potential and intrigue than anything we've run out to the mound ever 5th day for a few years now. And while there are no guarantees, there is definitely some potential there, with some great young arms to supplement and replace on the near horizon. And perhaps I or someone else will start a post regarding such. But for now, this post is strictly about the lineup and offense for the 2014 Twins.
     
    There is a generalization of optimism that comes with spring training. For a time at least, everyone is improved, and everyone is a contender. Being a realist...we are probably not. Again, a year or two away. And honestly, the Twins have done very, very little to address the lineup for 2014. Almost depressingly nothing. (And this from someone who would rival Seth in the area of optimism) There could yet be a move, even a small one, that will provide at least some sense of depth and option with the lineup. But as of yet, nothing of value.
     
    Understand, I am in NO WAY advocating, or admonishing the Twins for failing to act/sign, the likes of Cano or Ellsbury. Would you really spend that kind of money and years on 30 y.o. players with Dozier, Arcia, Rosario, Sano, Buxton, etc, already contributing or nearly ready to?
     
    But where does that leave us lineup/offensively for 2014? Honestly, just being healthy would provide a better and more productive lineup than 2013. But where do we go from here?
     
    I've been a Brian Dozier supporter/fan for some time now. And after a slow and disappointing start to last season, he really kicked things in to gear. Yes, his AVG and OB could have been better, but his milb numbers showed a slash of .298/.370, indicating he should show improvement in each of these areas in 2014, even if his power numbers slide somewhat. And what's really interesting is that until the 2012 debacle, Dozier had ONLY spent 2 1/2 years in the minors, and showed general improvement each season.
     
    Joe Mauer. Do I really have to say more? If he doesn't win a gold glove the next few years at 1B it will be a huge surprise. He is the man with a career split of .323/.405/873 OPS. What will he do with a season of 150 games?
     
    A healthy Willingham at DH, Molitor helping him in the transition, occasionally LF, has career averages of .256/.359/.830 OPS with averages of 28Dbls and 25 HR's.
     
    Being a near rookie, it's hard to place numbers on Arcia, but I have to believe every number has to improve in his second season. I'd expect 30 doubles and 20 plus HR's roughly in 500 AB's.
     
    Plouffe may never perform the way we wish he would. But rough calculations have him hitting .242/.305 with 25Dbls and 19 H's n 500 AB's. If he actually got 500 AB's at this point I'd hope for a bit more.
     
    Hicks in CF hitting only in the .240 range with an OB above .300 with 30 doubles, double digit HR's and pushing 20+ SB's with excellent defense is still a big help with the potential for more.
     
    Pinto, forgetting what he did in MLB last season, only taking his last 2 seasons of milb stats and reducing 20% to allow for a full season of rookie regression would still provide .243/.306 with 27Dbls and 13+HR's in 500 AB's.
     
    Shortstop, Florimon, Escobar or Bartlett is certainly open to debate.
     
    There is nothing earth shattering here, but still some optimism.
     
    The biggest problem I see is lead off. Can Presley, even for one season, provide something acceptable? I don't know that Mastro or Hicks can provide the answer. Was hoping for a nice role player who could help/platoon. But to this point, that player/person has not been signed/identified.
     
    What say you about the lineup for 2014 at this point?
  9. DocBauer
    Ok, go ahead, call me crazy. I get it. But is it possible we're missing something here that could prove helpful?
     
    When the Twins re-acquired Pino this off season I offered a simply "meh" like the rest of you. AAA filler who might not finish the year or even make the club if a few things break right. But with his incredible start I had to sit down and take a look at his career numbers.
     
    He has a career 3.7 to 1 SO to BB ratio and a career BA against of .239 including this season, and a career W-L of 79 & 55. Granted, there are reasons he's never had a cup of coffee, but his milb track history indicates a serviceable, replacement level player you would think would have had a shot somewhere down the line.
     
    In his time previously in the Twins organization, he was never a top prospect, and was probably a 20-ish level prospect. Though he did receive mention in different prospectus as someone to watch a time or two. I have absolutely no illusions about Mr. Pino's prospect status. I'm just wondering, are we missing something here? Is he one of those guys who spends his career flying under the radar before figuring things out late and turns himself in to a useful piece? A long reliever or middle reliever
  10. DocBauer
    The season is still very young. I don't want to get too wrapped up in early optimism, but something has to be said about the lineup and production thus far, especially considering the generally pessimistic nature I think most of us felt at the close of ST.
     
    There was a lot of gnashing of teeth, despite the "they can't be any worse therefore they must be at least somewhat better" mantra. There are flaws and concerns still to be sure. (Not here to necessarily rehash the SS argument at length again) But let's take a moment to offer up props where due.
     
    What impresses me most is that a year after setting records for strikeouts, our Twins are suddenly amongst the leaders in OB%, something I never dared dream.
     
    Kubel has gone from a small investment/good flyer to washed up to performing well not only at the plate, but reminding us that despite somewhat limited range, he is and always has been an OK OF defensively.
     
    The jury is still very much out on Willingham. But even he looked pretty good the first few games after looking like overdone toast in ST.
     
    What more can be said about Colabello? He's not just a good story any longer, he's become a great story. I've been converted from a hopeful fan of his to an actual believer. At his age he's just not going to be a long tenured major leaguer. But he's gone from a small independent signing news blurb to someone who raked at AA. And still he was doubted. He raked upon his promotion to AAA and was again doubted when he finished in the majors last season. (Again, not the first or last ball player to ill fit initially). The Twins tried to do him a favor and ship him over seas and he refused, intent on fulfilling his dream. He's made adjustments, had a great ST, and has become, at least, an early season stalwart to the lineup. I'm just not going to bet against him any longer.
     
    Despite a couple errors, Plouffe looks much more comfortable at 3B. And while I very much doubt he will continue to hit .300 with a .400 OB, he really looks like a completely different hitter. Has the light finally come on?
     
    Dozier is proving he is for real. OB over a 100 points higher than early season Avg. Wait until a few more balls find holes. Same with Hicks. Nothing spectacular yet, but he just looks so much more relaxed and competent than last season. Like Dozier, an OB over a 100 points higher than his Avg.
     
    So far, Suzuki looks like the hitter he used to be. Pinto is showing really good signs. Mauer is Mauer and is just begining to hit like Mauer. Can't wait to get Arcia back, and probably Hammer as well, though he should be primarily a DH.
     
    A couple questions and concerns. I still believe Mauer is best in the #3 hole. When do we consider Hicks for the 2 hole between Dozier and Mauer, with his patience and Mauer behind him? And long term, who is our #4 hitter? Even if Hammer comes back strong, he's not a long term answer by any means.
     
    Despite the angst for a long term solution at SS, I think that one bat to hit 4th is a concern to be addressed soon. But a tip of my cap to Bruno, the staff, and especially the players thus far.
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