Hosken Bombo Disco

Originally published at The Tenth Inning Stretch
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Today the Minnesota Twins hosted the Pittsburgh Pirates at Hammond Stadium. As usual, before the game I trotted by the minor league fields that today were hosting a celebrity from the baseball world:
 

 
A dad watching his kid pitch a bullpen:
 

 
And then walk with him after he was done:
 

 
Interesting enough, not many fans had an idea of who the dad was. And he was about as humble as a baseball superstar as I have seen. He had his picture taken with fans and shook his head and smiled when I told him that his kid has a great arm, from one dad to another. And Derek Rodriguez does have a great arm. He was tossing nice crisp fastballs when he got his mechanics right. But his mechanics were all over the place to begin and his pitching coach was there talking to him pitch after pitch, and Derek incorporated the feedback. I think that making the transition to pitching will be hard, but I think that he has the determination, the tools and the family and Twins support to do it. Will likely start 2015 in Extended Spring Training, but I fully expect him to see him progress fast.
 
Every Spring Training there are a couple of players who are relatively unknown, but do make an impression to me. The first one I will point this year is Jack Barrie, a 19 year old Aussie First Baseman who made his pro debut last season with the GCL Twins. This kid has Kennys Vargas written all over him. Great plate presence, quick wrists, one to keep an eye on. And I bet you never have heard of him.
 
Back to the big boys playing the Pirates. Kyle Gibson started for the Twins and after his recent discussion about adding velocity, I was betting that we'd see at least one 95 mph fastball on the (2 mph or so) fast Hammond Stadium radar, and we did. The problem with Kyle today was that his 93-95 mph fastballs were lacking the movement and the downward break his 90-92 mph fastballs did. Also his slider was not there (he threw 2 in the first innings, including the first HR to Cervelli). In the third inning, he seems that he threw all sliders and change ups. At least he was working the kinks out. No worries about Gibson.
 
In a tale of two who are fighting for the 25th man spot on the roster. Eduardo Nunez beat out a cleanly-fielded ground ball to the SS (our own Pedro Florimon, btw) for an infield hit and managed to steal second two pitches afterwards. Shane Robinson (who is fighting for the same spot,) drove him in with a scorcher on the first base line and then, after Dozier was hit by a pitch to fill first, was thrown out at third on a double steal that found Dozier safe and sound at second. Robinson had some decent plays at left today, but I still think that Nunez is probably fighting with Herrmann (who did not play) for this spot as is now...
 
Back to arms. Blaine Boyer came in to pitch in the middle of an inning and was effective. And then pitched another inning and was effect, but in his second inning his velocity picked up a few notches. His fastball moved from 89-90 all the way to 93-94, his curve from 73 to 76 and he threw some change ups at mid 80s (all well commanded, btw,) which made me think that indeed there might be some pitchers who are different (and better) if they come up with no outs and no ons on the top of an inning. Michael Tonkin and Stephen Pryor followed. Tonkin, who have since been opted, topped up at 94 and so did Pryor, who really did some nifty glovework in a comebacker, which made me think whether there are any real fastball pitchers left on the roster, since that gun is 2 mph or so fast and these 3 are pitchers touted to hit high 90s. Maybe too early, but still somewhat concerning...
 
In another note, it was great to see Toper Anton again, and meet Steve Lein and John Bonnes. See you guys around the next few days.

I had the pleasure of watching today's game in person at Hammond Stadium, versus the portion of the St Louis Cardinal roster they deemed worth putting on a bus (hint: no stars). This writeup ought to be pretty quick, because it's one of those rare games where the box score plus a little inference pretty much tells you all you need to know.
 
But first, I'll mention that we didn't have tickets to start with, and didn't want to feed the scalpers - but a little bird had told us that tickets get freed up just before most games - seats that are controlled by the two teams (for players' relatives etc) until they are sure they aren't needed. So we got there 2.5 hours early and waited half an hour, and sure enough we wound up getting $29 seats nearly behind home plate on the third base side up near the top. Seems high priced for spring games but the world is like that now. Just a little tip for those of you wanting to attend games.
 

 
Kyle Gibson was as good as his line score would suggest - batters were not able to distinguish his offspeed offerings and were getting fooled by them. Two hits, no runs, four strikeouts, in four innings. A little shaky in the third, followed up by a strong fourth. Very hopeful sign.
 
I've not been a strong proponent of Tim Stauffer when the news broke that the Twins had signed him, and nothing today improved my view on him. He got through his first inning with no drama and three ground balls, but his next two innings showed he was no mystery to the Cardinal batters and they piled up four Very Earned Runs in that span. I thought it was silly to envision him as a competitor for the fifth starter spot - now put him back in low-leverage situations like the Padres had him, is my advice.
 
The rest of the game was your usual parade of relievers, who did OK but nothing great, allowing two more runs in total. The last run was aided by some shoddy left field work by Nunez who allowed an extra base by not being able to decide whether to dive for a flare or not, winding up letting it drop but then not corralling the ball to keep the baserunner from getting to third, whereupon he scored on a sac fly. Bad luck to Fien I guess, but he did allow the first hit legitimately. This run was the one that tied it at 6-6, which was the eventual final score.
 
Conversely the Twins scored 5 early runs, three in the third capped by a Brian Dozier two-run homer to left following a Schafer RBI, and two more in the fourth that drove off starter Carlos Martinez when Suzuki doubled down the third base line. Nice. After that the Card bullpen was effective, though they let in another run in the seventh when Herrmann drove in Argenis Diaz. (I was surprised to see Herrmann playing first after Mauer was lifted, so I guess they really are grooming him to be super-sub, and thus likely to be the 25th man on Opening Day.)
 
Twins fans at Hammond today were outnumbered by Cardinal fans. They were courteous but toward the end of the game the repeated rallies had them cheering their favorites on, and the Twins fans were too "Minnesota Nice" (I guess) to put up much of a fuss.
 
The game ended on Nunez being thrown out at the plate trying to score on a short single to left, having been waved in by coach Glynn. With 2 out and weak hitters now in the lineup it was the obvious call for the situation, as all choices at that point had become low percentage and this was the most entertaining one to try. I saw it as him being out by at least two steps, leaving matters at 6-6, and it being Spring they did not go to extras. Everyone departed in a good mood - perhaps as in soccer, a "friendly" played to a tie.
 

Are we confident in the Twins handling and developing of Alex Meyer? Does he need more time in AAA? Should he have been called up last June?
 
We don't really know what has prevented the Twins from calling up Alex Meyer. We speculate it is his walk rate. How unusual is it for a pitcher with his stuff to give up a lot of walks in AAA? How would other teams respond?
 
Do all teams wait for their pitchers with good stuff to manage their walk rates?
 
Here are some pitchers and their walks per 9 in AAA prior to coming to the majors.
 
Hernandez 4.9
Price 4.6
Lester 4.3
Samardzija 4.2
Ventura 3.9
Kershaw (no AAA but AA was 3.9 in 16 starts)
Kluber 3.9
Scherzer 3.7 (4.9 in AA)
 
It isn't unusual for pitchers that throw hard and have good stuff to walk batters in AAA.
 
Why does their walk per 9 go down in the majors?
 
I am not sure. I would imagine that better hitters put the ball in play before a walk results. AAA hitters may be experienced enough to lay off a pitch they can't hit or foul it off. Longer counts and more walks result. It could be the quality of the umpiring.
 
High walk rates does not stop other teams from bringing up their pitchers with good stuff to the majors. I think some teams would have brought Alex Meyer to the majors last June.
 
Is it the Twins plan to wait until Meyer brings his walk rate down before bringing him up to the majors? I hope not. That might not happen until his stuff isn't as good and the AAA hitters start putting the ball in play more often.

The Minnesota Twins' front office is going to be faced with making some difficult decisions this offseason - decisions they are woefully ill-prepared to make.
http://knuckleballsblog.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2012/03/GardenhireBrunansky2012.jpg
Ron Gardenhire and Tom Brunansky (photo: Knuckleballs)

Many professional sports organizations change their on-field management at least as often as they change accounting firms. It's just part of the way they do business. When you lose more games than you win for a couple years in a row, you change managers/head coaches and even front office leadership.
 
It just becomes second nature. Much the way swimming becomes second nature to anyone who has spent much time in the water.
 
But the very idea of changing field management/coaching staff must, for the Twins ownership and front office, seem as incomprehensible as diving off a cliff in to a river would be to someone who doesn't know how to swim.
 

 
For those of you who don't know how that scene of Butch Cassidy & the Sundance Kid turned out, both outlaws survived their jump and their trip down river just fine and lived happily ever after (at least until they decided to move to Bolivia).
 
The most famous quote from that movie scene is, "the fall will probably kill you." But, for the Twins' purposes, I'd focus on Butch's earlier point. "We've got to, otherwise we're dead."
 
I think the same is true of the Twins if they foolishly decide to keep the status quo regarding their field management.
 
I know that changing managers and coaching staff just is not something the people who run the Twins are comfortable with.
 
They know the guys they have. They may not be winning much, but they HAVE won in the past, so they MIGHT win again, no matter how hopelessly unlikely that may seem to be at the moment.
 
If the people who run the Twins decide to (shudder) make changes, there is no guarantee that the new guys will be any better. After all, how many people in the Twins front office have actually gone swimming in the deep waters that go along with the process of interviewing candidates for a Major League manager?
 
Figuratively, they don't know how to swim!
 
At some point, though, they're going to have to realize that NOT taking that leap means the organization is almost certain to continuing their current death spiral. Once you consider that the worst thing that can happen when you take that big jump off a cliff is the same thing that's going to happen if you don't, it's really not that hard to just holler, "Ohhhhh (expletive)," and make the leap.
 
Once you've taken the leap and decided you will not simply go on doing business the same way you have for the past three decades, you can get down to the business of figuring out who is best suited to turn the next group of raw-but-talented young ballplayers in to a contending Major League team.
 
Maybe it's someone on the Twins' current big league bench, such as Paul Molitor or Tom Brunansky. Maybe it's one of the organization's excellent full-season minor league managers (all four of which guided their respective team to a winning record in 2014, by the way). Maybe it's someone from outside the Twins organization altogether.
 
But first things first.
 
If they haven't already, the Twins' decision makers need to conclude that there is literally nothing that can happen that would be any worse than continuing to fight it out with the status quo.
 
To do so would send a terrible message to a fan base who simply will not tolerate another do-nothing offseason and continue to buy tickets for a 2015 season that does not come with the benefit of All-Star Game tickets.
There is a lot of talent set to arrive at Target Field in the next couple years. Names, both familiar and unfamiliar to Twins fans, like Buxton, Sano, Meyer, Berrios, Polanco, Gordon, Burdi, Kepler, Harrison, Kanzler, Stewart, Thorpe, Gonsalves, Turner, Garver, Walker and many more, could well become cornerstones of the next great Minnesota Twins team.
 
The class of Mauer, Morneau, Cuddyer, Baker, et al, has been wasted. We could discuss "why" this class failed to bring a championship to Minnesota, but that's pointless.
 
What matters now is making sure that the upcoming class is not similarly wasted and that process begins with asking ourselves who would be the best choices as manager and field coaches to get the most of their talent.
 
I'm not sure who that person is, though I certainly have some favorites among the likely possibilities.
 
What I think has become abundantly clear, however, is that manager Ron Gardenhire and pitching coach Rick Anderson are not the right choices.
 
The decision to dismiss them is not easy for a front office like that of the Twins.
 
I respect that, actually. Letting go of loyal and, at times, effective employees should not be easy - certainly not as easy as it seems to be for many owners and General Managers in professional sports.
 
But sometimes, it's absolutely necessary.
 
Even the most devoted fans of Gardy and Andy in the front office must, by now, be having a hard time envisioning that duo effectively leading the upcoming group of 20-year-olds to championships.
 
With fresh talent, fresh eyes and fresh approaches are necessary. It's possible (and perhaps even quite likely) that Gardenhire and Anderson could provide that fresh approach to another organization. I hope they can (as long as it's not in the AL Central), because I think they're good men who know something about baseball.
 
But just as a young Tom Kelly was the perfect fit for a young group of Twins in the mid-late 1980s, it's time to find new management to work with the next wave of young Twins.
 
There's no reason to wait another year, prolonging the inevitable.
 
It's time for the Twins' front office and ownership to take the leap off that cliff and live to fight another day.
 
(Just don't move the team to Bolivia. That would not end well.)