Richie the Rally Goat

Who cares. A common phrase I hear more and more often. Did you hear about the Carlos Correa fiasco? Who cares. Do you think Dansby Swanson is worth the money and years he received? Who cares. Did you see the new rules for this year? Who cares. This feeling of apathy loomed over most of the conversations I tried to have about baseball while home for the holidays, and when I was done sipping eggnog out of frustration, I came back to Iowa for some more of the same. To them, the upcoming ‘who gives a damn’ bowl that the Hawkeyes were playing in was far more interesting than the insane contracts being thrown about like money was going out of style (I’m talking to you Steve Cohen). The more time I spend trying to talk baseball with those that aren’t as into it as myself, a truth harder than the plate in Carlos Correa’s leg becomes obvious to me. Baseball is failing to market itself properly to gain interest from both the average fan and potential young fans alike. There is no singular solution and I certainly don’t have all the answers. However, the lack of visibility for its star players, fun-killing unwritten rules, and media blackouts are all core issues that are eating away at the popularity of the sport.
Similar to the ‘who cares’ response I receive from folks a lot is the even simpler, ‘who?’ My mother-in-law, who is about as far from a sports fan as you can be and is from Texas, mentioned the huge contract that Dak Prescott signed with the Cowboys. I tried pulling the conversation towards baseball and followed up with the Aaron Judge contract and the insane amount of money and years dropped into the lap of a player already in his 30s. I expected her response to be related to the amount of money we pay to professional athletes, instead she said, “who?” That’s a problem MLB. Your star players need to be recognizable to the average person and need to be highlighted and promoted as such. Everyone knows who Lebron James or Tom Brady is, but not too many people outside of us baseball fans know who Aaron Judge, Fernando Tatis (I know…), or Bryce Harper are.
I think part of the issue is that there are unwritten rules in baseball that don’t allow its star players to show off their personality and become icons and known to the general public. The best example I can think of happened to Fernando Tatis (again, I know…) in 2021 I believe. The Padres were up big and the bases were loaded. It was 3-0 and Tatis got an absolute meatball and hit an epic blast. Four more runs. Afterwards, the cameras showed Tatis in the dugout getting chewed out for swinging 3-0 when his team was up big. He later apologized. APOLOGIZED. This infuriated me. One, why shouldn’t he swing? Two, he gets paid based on performance. Three, it gets his team a larger cushion. Lastly, home runs are awesome and incredibly difficult to hit. Honestly, the odds are he would have gotten himself out (pace of play, you’re welcome). Not only that, but now you have taken one of the young and amazing talents in your sport, whom you wish to be one of the faces of the league (really, again, I know…) and reprimanded him for doing something exciting and scoring four runs for his team. Absolutely absurd. In contrast, the NFL lets Justin Jefferson do the griddy every time he scores and really show off his personality. Baseball needs to start promoting their players better and do the same. Bat flips to the sky and pitchers screaming their heads off after a 3rd out strikeout? Yes, please.
Even if those unwritten rules erode, players become known, and fans are ready to put their butts in seats and couches to see it, there is the final issue… REGIONAL BLACKOUTS. This might be the most egregious offense of all. To watch an MLB game, you must do one of three things. One, purchase cable in your region and spend well over 100 dollars on channels you don’t need or care about. Two, purchase MLB TV and hope you aren’t located in a market for whomever you are trying to watch (Iowa blocks Twins, Brewers, Cubs, White Sox, Royals and Cardinals by the way). Three, pay a king’s ransom in purchasing a ticket, food, parking, etc. to attend a game in person. This option is becoming insanely expensive when it does not need to be. MLB makes the bulk of its money off media rights (hence the regional black outs forcing the purchasing of cable) and attendance becomes less important each year. In fact, attendance has dropped every year since 2012, but revenue has been steady. With inflation, attending a game as a family of four is becoming almost impossible, which means fans need to be able to watch on TV. This however, is incredibly difficult and expensive as well. I think the solution could be moving on from the regional markets and leaning into a streaming service with no blackouts. This would involve having different priced packages for how many teams you want to follow or if you want ads or not. There could be single, 10, 20, and 30 team packages.
By moving away from some of the unwritten rules that dampen a player’s personality, more stars worth watching will begin to emerge. If MLB can combine that with making the game easier to access and view, the youth will be drawn in by these exciting and vibrant players. This will result in kids becoming engaged with baseball at a young age and hopefully herald in a new age of baseball popularity. MLB needs to make the first move however, and I don’t see them moving on from the regional sports networks that have been an absolute cash cow for them.

For the Twins to get back into the playoffs in 2023, they will need a host of elements to go well. Not only will the Twins require significantly better health in 2023 — they will also need some players to make leaps in the new year. Whether it’s younger established players or prospects, the Twins need big improvements from some young players to be a successful team. I’ve put together a list of players I think can take those steps to be impact players in 2023.
Joe Ryan
Since the Twins acquired Joe Ryan in exchange for Nelson Cruz at the 2021 trade deadline, he has impressed, and at times, dominated. In 32 starts, he has pitched 173.2 innings with an ERA of 3.63 and a FIP of 3.90. He has had a 25.7% strikeout rate and a 7.1% walk rate. These are all very good numbers for a guy coming off of his rookie year, and he would slot into just about any rotation in baseball. Ryan isn’t a typical breakout candidate due to his early success, but I believe at 26 years old, he has the ability to develop into more of a frontline starter and break out as a true star.  
In 2022, Ryan was much worse after a tough bout with Covid-19. Per Fangraphs, in starts before his long absence due to the virus, Ryan had a 2.25 ERA and a 3.25 FIP, but in starts after he came back, he had a 4.08 ERA and 4.30 FIP. Essentially, before his 3-week Covid absence, he was the frontline starter the Twins needed him to be, and after, he was a back-end of the rotation starter. Hopefully, once fully recovered in 2023, we can see Ryan lead the rotation and be a frontline starter.  
Beyond his mediocre numbers after his Covid-19 absence, Ryan’s performance against right-handed hitters in 2022 surprised me. I expected him to be a typical pitcher who performs better against same-sided batters. In the minors, Ryan had typical splits, where he was better against righties than lefties, but that was not the case in 2022. Against right-handed batters in 2022, Ryan threw fewer fastballs and more sliders. But his fastball was one of the best pitches in baseball in 2022 based on Baseball Savant’s run value metric, while his slider was well below average. For Ryan to become a frontline starter, he will need to improve his performance against right-handed batters, by either improving his slider or throwing fewer sliders against right-handed batters. If either of those strategies is effective and he can return to top physical shape, Ryan can be the Twins best starting pitcher (as the roster is currently constructed) and possibly become the frontline starter the Twins need in 2023.
Jovani Moran
Almost every number available shows that Jovani Moran is a really good relief pitcher who is ready to be an impact reliever for the Twins from Opening Day forward. From his 2.21 ERA and 1.78 FIP in 2022 for the Twins in 40.2 innings, to his 11.95 K/9, Twins fans should be excited for him to join the fold more in 2023. While his numbers holistically are awesome, he does walk a ton of batters. However, he limits home runs and strikes out enough hitters that the walks have rarely haunted him at any level, and his overall numbers should continue to be strong in 2023.
While Moran has been extremely stingy against both righties and lefties, as a 2-pitch pitcher who relies a ton on nasty changeup, he has reverse splits, meaning he is better against right-handed batters than lefties. Because of this, he would benefit if the Twins add an additional left-handed reliever, so if Caleb Thielbar is unavailable, he doesn’t have to be the guy to just come in against lefties. Instead, he should be used in other high leverage situations, whether it’s an 8th inning in a 1- run game, or if there are guys on second and third and one out. If the Twins are going to hunt any matchups for Moran, they should seek right-handed hitters in 2023. Facing primarily righties will further improve his numbers and make him a weapon in a bullpen that could be the best in years for the Twins.
               
Alex Kirilloff
Kirilloff has unfortunately been on these types of lists for 3 years. The Twins expected that in 2021, once they blatantly manipulated his service time, he could come in and be a star left fielder every day for years to come. That expectation was reasonable at the time. In 2018, he was the Twins Minor League Player of the Year, and his strong performances continued in 2019 during his first taste of the upper minors at AA. He had wrist problems flare up for the first time in 2019, but after a strong performance at the Twins alternate site in 2020, which they believed warranted a rare playoff Major League Baseball debut, it was time for the global top 20 prospect to be an impact player for the Twins.
That has not yet happened for Kirilloff as his wrist has bogged him down. Over the past two seasons, Twins fans at times saw him hit the ball hard and really be the hitter prospect analysts promised us, but far more often his wrist left him sidelined, or he at least performed at a subpar level. In 2021, his batted ball data indicated that he would start seeing a lot of hits and extra base hits with a .544 xSLG, but he didn’t play enough for those results to come, only playing 59 games for the Twins. In 2022, he was bad in the MLB, but at AAA he showed that a great hitter is in there, with a 1.106 OPS. There even was a stretch with the Twins from July 2nd to July 23rd when he posted a 157 wRC+, making him a 57% above average hitter. During that stretch, it seemed that he was finally coming along, especially when he went 6 for 13 with 2 home runs and 6 RBIs, in what seemed like a pivotal series against the White Sox. Soon after, he fell off a cliff and didn’t play another game in the majors for the Twins in 2022.
Wrists are tricky and sometimes hitters never get back to their best due to a wrist injury. That could be the unfortunate reality for Kirilloff. But if the new medical staff can help him navigate the wrist problem, he can be a huge bat in the middle of the lineup, hitting for extra bases and average, and could even be the best left-handed hitter in the Twins lineup.
Ryan Jeffers
When the Twins drafted Ryan Jeffers and signed him above slot value, he was seen as a player who would be a really good power hitter, but he likely would have to move off catcher due to his defense. Thus far, he has been a very solid defensive catcher, but he has not yet tapped into the bat that the Twins thought they were getting. In 2022, Jeffers was an above average pitch framer, who handled the staff well, and a well below average hitter, with a wRC+ of 87, making him 13% below average. If he can tap into more power, which prospect analysts believed he had, he can be a real asset for the Twins in 2023. If the Twins can get above average offensive production from catcher, that’s a huge advantage on the competition, when most catchers are their team’s worst hitters. We saw that when Mitch Garver had a monstrous season in 2019, and when the Twins had AJ Pierzynski and Joe Mauer in the 2000s.
The most obvious way for him to put up better offensive numbers is for him to play almost every game when the Twins are facing a left-handed pitcher. If that’s around 40-50 games, he’ll be in a great position to succeed, especially if he can even slightly improve against right-handed pitchers. While Christian Vázquez has been better against lefties than righties, he hasn’t been nearly as good over his career as Jeffers has been. Against lefties, Jeffers has crushed, with a wRC+ of 125, which is really good for anybody, but especially for a catcher. Hopefully, he can thrive getting more of those platoon matchups while continuing to be a very good defensive catcher. If he does, the Twins could have a big offensive advantage at catcher, making their lineup dangerous enough to really contend for a division title.

In my previous piece I talked about how Alex Kirilloff may fit into the Minnesota Twins’ long term plans and what his outlook could be in the Major Leagues. For this article I want to look at the Twins other touted corner outfield prospect, one who has spent much of his professional career being compared to Kirilloff; Trevor Larnach. 
Trevor Larnach is another player the Twins likely view as a core piece as they build for 2023 and beyond. Making a name for himself for his refined approach and raw power, Larnach found himself a top 50 prospect in all of baseball and as high as no. 34 on Fangraphs; with some sites ranking him even higher than Alex Kirilloff. It took Larnach only 183 minor league games to get called up to the Majors in 2021 where he showed flashes of that power and developed approach before injury issues started to affect his production; he was ultimately sent down to AAA. 2022 was a similar story for Larnach as he once again had some very encouraging moments before an abdominal injury ended his season in late June. 
As stated in my previous piece, injuries have a high variance and almost no predictability so I won’t spend much time on them for a future outlook of a player. Although they have been present in Larnach’s career so far their unstable nature offers little help if you are trying to guess a player’s future. 
Between 2021 and 2022 Larnach has played almost a full season of games, 130 to be exact. It’s not a huge sample but more to work with than some other Twins prospects, so let’s see what we can find when we dig into it. Through 481 plate appearances Larnach is slashing .226/.316/.371 with 12 home runs, 46 RBI, 95 wRC+ and a 1.7 fWAR. Nothing to brag about but solid production to this point. 
I probably should’ve addressed the title of the article by now but I tend to tangent. In my opinion, Trevor Larnach has a career outlook very similar to Joey Gallo, who the Twins just recently signed. While not as extreme of a three true outcome player, I think there are undeniable parallels in their games that we cannot ignore. 
 
Let’s compare some numbers shall we? 
 
Larnach: .226/.316/.371, 10.2% BB%, 33.5% K%, 95 wRC+, 12 DRS/1,000 innings, 2.1 fWAR/162
Gallo: .199/.325/.469, 14.8% BB%, 37.3% K%, 110 wRC+, 10 DRS/ 1,000 innings  3.2 fWAR/162 
It’s not a perfect match on the surface but when we dig a little deeper the numbers get even more similar. 
 
Batted ball data (per Statcast)
 
Larnach: 116 MPH Max exit velocity, 90.0 avg EV, 42.2% hard hit%, 35.4 SwSp% (ball with a batted launch angle between 8 and 32 degrees) 
Gallo: 117.5 MPH Max exit velocity, 92.5 avg EV, 49.1% hard hit%, 33.3 SwSp%
 
But wait there’s more! Let’s look at their plate discipline numbers:
 
Larnach: 62.3% Z-Swing%, 73.1 Z-Contact%, 25.1 Chase%, 31.7% Chase Contact%, 43.0% Swing%, 39.4% Whiff%
Gallo: 69.3% Z-Swing, 67.5% Z-Contact, 24.8% Chase%, 37.1% Chase Contact%, 45.0% Swing%, 41.2% Whiff% 
 
It’s important to remember that we are still comparing a very small sample of Trevor Larnach to a very large sample of Joey Gallo so in a year or two this could look ridiculous. However, that being said, when I see the career numbers of both Gallo and Larnach they look like very similar players. They both have tremendous raw power combined with good plate discipline and they both are extremely prone to swing and miss. While Larnach has yet to prove he is capable of batted balls turning into extra base hits (.371 career SLG), he has shown in his young career he consistently finds the barrel and hits the ball hard when he does make contact. Larnach is also a considerably worse athlete than Gallo and is unlikely to provide the defensive or base running upside that Gallo does. However, Larnach is, as traditionalists like to say, a more “pure hitter” than Gallo. His pull% 6.1% lower than Gallo’s and his batting average on balls in play (BABIP) is .331; Joey Gallo’s career BABIP is .257 making it likely that Larnach will hit for a much higher average. 
It may not be a perfect one for one comparison between two players, but I think there are enough similarities in Trevor Larnach’s game to Joey Gallo’s that it was noteworthy. I doubt Larnach will ever reach the extremes that Gallo has normalized in his career so if you are not a fan of Gallo I wouldn’t worry too much, I believe there are aspects of Larnach’s play that will prevent him from reaching those anomic heights. What do you think of Trevor Larnach? Is my comparison accurate or am I way off base on this one? Let me know what you think.
 

Alright, Twins fans... time to put your money where your mouth is. If it's all about spending money, if it's all about pushing the budget where it "should be", if it's all about signing a pitcher, once he receives his imminent release, it's time to sign Trevor Bauer.
You're sick and tired of the low-risk pitching signings with no ceiling? Here ya go. An arm with ace-type stuff, a wild amount of baggage, and every player I know has hated him more than getting leftover concessions for the post-game spread. 
On Thursday, Major League Baseball announced that an arbitrator reduced the suspension of Trevor Bauer, which has placed the Dodgers in an uncomfortable position that will force their hand sooner rather than later; likely his release. The Dodgers have until January 6th to add him to the 40-man roster, trade him or release him. Happy Holidays to the Dodgers front office... They have been tight-lipped on his future likely in hopes of acquiring a piece in a trade for Bauer. 
We have seen this play out in a similar fashion in the NFL with the more than cringe-worthy Deshaun Watson scenario. Media backlash and less than stellar performance from a player with layers of rust. I wanted nothing to do with Trevor Bauer before the suspension and I want even less to do with him and his vlog now.
For all our fans slamming the table for we need pitching or we need an ace... here's your opportunity, do you really just want pitching that bad? Or does it actually matter where the money goes and who walks into the clubhouse? As a lifelong Twins fan, if it takes bringing in a guy like this, I'd rather not win and honestly, we'd be better off with less talent and a better clubhouse. We live in a world where everything has turned into WWE. It doesn't matter how you make people feel anymore, you're just rewarded for making people feel something.
In my experience playing with guys who have been 1st round picks, played in The Show, or never saw the field in college, one of my favorite things about baseball players is when people ask- "What was playing with 'insert players name' like?" The first thing people say is either "Great dude" or "Eh... kinda sucks to be around". People that didn't play always want to know how good people were and then ballplayers tell you what kind of guy they are. It's fascinating. For whatever reason, when you're in the clubhouse with guys it's almost subconscious, your first instinct is 'How does this person make you feel?' and I love that about baseball.
Maybe it's my Holiday spirit showing through but I want to see us get back to being remembered for the right reasons. Hold a door open for someone, tell someone you love them, and brush the snow off your neighbor's car. These are the things that make humans great. We can consciously make decisions for the better and we can choose to do right. I had the honor of playing for the winningest coach in Big Ten history, and an even better human being than a coach- John Anderson (go gophers). The quote he beat into us that will stick with me forever- "No one will remember your batting average, your ERA, or how many awards you won. Your teammates will remember how you made them feel and the relationships you built here." Let's take a step back from the "notice me" culture we have built and get back to putting others before ourselves.
This winter, be a good person and say no to Trevor Bauer. He can make $10,000 a month playing in Mexico, that's still a nice living.
 
 

I want to start off this entry by saying that I am no writer. I joined Twins Daily so that I could follow the blog of a life-long friend of mine, who is much more talented than I. Shout out to Alex Boxwell, former Gopher outfielder and the next Ernest Hemmingway (follow his blog and become enlightened).
Maybe it’s the holidays being around the corner or the fact that I am snowed in and bored, but after what is appearing to be the mundane end to what could have (and should have?) been a historic FA signing period for the Minnesota Twins, I felt the need to find some positives and reflect on why I should continue to give my time to a team I follow with a passion. As well as why I should keep up with a sport that appears to be dying.
The answer is a seemingly strange one and stems from the origins of how I became interested in baseball as a kid. Growing up I was super into all the nerdy things. Lord of the Rings, Harry Potter, comic books, video games, you name it. Then I received MVP Baseball 2005 (Manny cover) as a gift on my 10th birthday. I had zero interest in sports at this time, but my best friend (RIP Brandyn) insisted that I try it so I caved and began to play. It was the greatest gift a nerd could receive. The in-depth simulation, the statistics, the attention to detail, stadium creation, owner mode, everything about that game kept me glued to my computer screen. That game is literally how I became interested in baseball. I was horribly unathletic but I decided to sign up for Little League the following Spring. I was terrible, I mean TERRIBLE, unwatchable even for an 11-year-old. Each year I managed to get a bit better and through sheer love of the game I willed myself onto the varsity baseball team my junior year of High School (as a PO obviously, hitting is hard). As I began to spend more time with skilled athletes, the personalities of the people I spent my time with changed drastically, and the true beauty of baseball revealed itself. It became a wonderful bridge between nerdom and sports culture.
As I have gotten older, I have realized I am far from alone in experiencing this ‘world between worlds,’ something about baseball fascinates nerds unlike any other sport. Maybe it’s the heavy influence of statistics, maybe it’s the fact that you don’t need to be a world class athlete to play it, who knows, but there is no denying that nerds love baseball. Just look at Dungeons and Dragons, an amazing game I suggest everyone tries at least once in their life. That game, which I think most people would consider to be the first game that used character stat sheets and involved freedom of choice, came out in 1974. Strat-O-Matic, a baseball simulation game using character sheets, statistics and dice rolling like that of D&D, came out in 1961. That is 13 years prior...
I have played D&D almost every Tuesday for the last 6 years and I can tell you that anyone watching such a game without having played, is going to fall asleep. However, that does not mean there isn’t anything going on. It’s just a heavily nuanced world filled with strategy, branching narratives, statistics, probability and larger than life characters.
Look at baseball now, every moment has nuance and complexity that leads to anticipation of 1000 different outcomes. I understand there aren’t seven-foot-tall specimens flying around dunking on each other, or 250-pound dudes colliding in full pads, but the game is more complex than that. A matchup between the likes of Bryce Harper and Max Scherzer is beyond interesting. Every pitch something changes. What pitch was thrown? Where was it thrown? How has the hitter been approached by the league? How has the hitter been approached by the specific pitcher? Are there runners on base? What’s the score? What inning is it? All of this can change with every pitch and the mental warfare between hitter and pitcher is absolutely fascinating.
I read an article a while back that made a similar connection between D&D, nerdom and baseball. They made the point that it would be amazing to bring together a D&D party in full cosplay and a group of hardcore baseball fans in team attire, face paint, foam fingers and all. I found this to be hilarious, and I imagine the look on their faces when they realize how remarkably similar they are, would be priceless.
At the end of the day, I will always follow the Minnesota Twins and baseball as a whole. It is a beautifully complex game that bridges two wonderfully unique yet similar worlds. At times it feels like David vs Goliath for both the franchise among the league, and baseball among the other major sports, which are often seen as more action oriented and ‘exciting.’ Hopefully MLB can find a way to market the game to the next generation better so it doesn’t go belly up. It’s scary to think of the 11-year-old kid who almost never got to experience the immersive culture and beauty of baseball. It would have been a damn shame if the game had never reached me. Friendships that would never have been made, memories lost and a passion left undiscovered. With the game in its current state, that may have been my reality.

Since this week was the 20th anniversary of Senator Paul Wellstone's death, I thought I might run one of my favorite columns, which I wrote to eulogize him.  I got quite a bit of feedback on it, and it mostly left me depressed, since many missed the point of the column.  Many readers who were critical of the column couldn't see beyond his politics, and even more sadly, neither could many of his supporters who praised it.  For me, the magic of Wellstone wasn't what he fought for, it was how he fought.  He made the impossible, possible and he inspired a generation to challenge their assumptions about the world and about themselves.  That's the lantern that he brought to my life.

The Lantern Bearer
10/29/2002
A Lantern Bearer's light went out this weekend.  
And the world grew darker.
We react to the infinite realities the world holds in a straightforward way.  We simplify it by choosing, consciously or not, which reality we care to embrace.  But whichever illusion we choose can also constrain us and too often turns into a shadow that we dare not challenge.
How do people react to you when you leave a room?  Do they laugh at you?  Some might.  Of course, some might admire you.  And some won't like you and some will and some won't give you a second thought, one way or the other.  Which illusion do you subscribe to?  And how does that shadow world modify what you say or do before you leave the room?  Illusions like that are everywhere.  And are so all-encompassing as to be invisible, like water to a fish.  
And then comes a Lantern Bearer, who holds up their light to the shadows and walks through them and takes us along.  They remind us that we created these shadows, and that we can dispel them.  We just have to pick up our lanterns, hold them out in front of us, and walk bravely forward.
Think your idea can never work?  That's just a shadow - hold up your light and walk through it.  
Think that which you care about cannot be achieved?  That's just a shadow - hold up your light and walk through it.  
Think you are alone in your passion?  That's just a shadow - hold up your light and walk through it.  
There are more things in heaven and earth, Horatio, than are dreamt of in your philosophy.  The world has room for you, your energy, and your passion.  Indeed, it desperately needs it.
A Lantern Bearer's light went out this weekend.  
And the world grew darker.  
Paul Wellstone's death left sizeable holes in our world in many ways.  An election, uncompleted.  A Senate, undecided.  A movement, leaderless.  A family, parentless.  
But the largest hole might be spiritual.  For a slice of my generation, he wasn't just someone who championed their political philosophy, but someone who reminded them of the joy and strength that flows from acting in a fundamentally moral way.  
"I lost my Kennedy." one friend told his wife this weekend.
His believers flocked to the Twins Cities and followed him to Washington.  They participated in a system that they otherwise might have disdained. And they watched him challenge the shadows.
Think an outsider can't change the system?  That's just a shadow - hold up your light and walk through it.  
Think voting your conscience will alienate you from the decision makers?  That's just a shadow - hold up your light and walk through it.  
Think a good man can't hold onto his convictions when clothed with the trappings of power?  That's just a shadow - hold up your light and walk through it.  
And then the believers started picking up their own lanterns.  
A Lantern Bearer's light went out this weekend.  And it happened the way it always seems to with lantern bearers.  Suddenly.  Tragically. Too damn early.  
And, of course, the world grew darker.
When a bright light is suddenly taken away, isn't that always when things are darkest?  But that, too, is an illusion. Time passes, the eyes adjust, and one starts seeing the other sources of light.
Because this Lantern Bearer's light has spread throughout this generation.  Some lantern bearers are trying to change how politics works.  Some are ushering underprivileged kids into college.  And if you look around, you'll find hundreds more have raised their own lanterns, found their own path, and chased their own shadows.   
Is it still too dark?  Sure.  So maybe it's time you picked up your lantern.
Think your voice won't be heard?  That's just a shadow - hold up your light and walk through it.  
Think you're powerless?  That's just a shadow - hold up your light and walk through it.  
Think YOU can't make a difference?  That's just a shadow - hold up your light and walk through it.
A Lantern Bearer's light went out this weekend.  
And a thousand more Lantern Bearers strode forward.

The Twins will soon officially have a shortstop vacancy. Carlos Correa has informed the media (and I presume the Twins) that he will opt-out of the second year of his contract. One possibility, Jermaine Palacios, has been DFAed and claimed by the Detroit Tigers. The Twins have shown no tendency to use in-house options Jorge Polanco, Nick Gordon or Gio Urshela as a regular shortstop. Brooks Lee hasn't been with the organization a year out of college and looked pretty rough on defense in the minors.
In addition, the Twins have shown a real lack of speed and base running ability. Finally, having a guy who is capable of playing center field in Byron Buxton's absence and filling in at the outfield corners would be ideal. I'm talking about a better hitter than Gilberto Celestino. 
So, who am I calling on to step up? Austin Martin, of course. The guy was formerly listed as the Twins' top prospect and he played shortstop most of the season in Wichita. Regardless of his ability to play short, he has outfield experience and the requisite speed to cover center field. Moreover, he has profiled with excellent ob=base skills and was among the minor league leaders in stolen bases. Martin has exactly the skills that the club needs to add. Martin will have a chance to show what he has to offer in the Arizona Fall League.
Obviously, Martin has a lot of making up to do. He hit and fielded poorly at AA for Wichita. He has slipped down the prospect ratings because of his performance and he hasn't found a power stroke. I don't hold any illusions that it would be a huge surprise for Martin to vault himself into  contention for an Opening Day spot particularly as a shortstop. I am saying that he has the particular skills that give him a path for quick advancement to the major leagues. It is all there in front of him.
A more likely scenario for Martin would be for him to impress sufficiently that he would be in line for a recall either as an infielder or outfielder at some point during the 2023 season. I will be checking the AFL results in the hope that Austin Martin can restore his prospect status and eventually be a contributor for the Twins.

Some time after the All-Star break, I was pondering how the Twins could fit all of their quality major league position players on the active roster. A few weeks later, baseball immortals Mark Contreras and Caleb Hamilton were on the big club. Fast forward to a crucial five-game series in Cleveland and the Twins were starting Bailey Ober, Josh Winder (both coming off injuries) and having Louie Varland make his second major league start and Jake Cave and Gilberto Celestino were considered regular starters. The season unraveled quickly and now the Twins look likely to finish below .500 and in third place in the weak AL Central. How did it happen? I have several answers--there have been enduring issues all year exacerbated by a rash of injuries, most of them season-ending. 
Offense underperformed almost all year. Going back to the start of the season, after a rocky first couple of weeks, the Twins offense was sufficient to win a lot of game despite never scoring runs commensurate with their underlying numbers. Right now, the Twins are 18th in runs scored despite being 11th in OPS and 12th in homers. They have often been futile with runners in scoring position and they have been a terrible running bases as a team. I have seen many posters state that the team is terrible at fundamentals. I would submit that all teams draw their fans ire for not advancing runners and "beating the shift". Part of these problems is the way the Twins are built. They lack team speed and their is a lot of swing and miss in their collective game. With the changes made to limit homers, the Twins (IMHO) have suffered disproportionately. 
Pitching regressed after overperforming early. The Twins seized first place in late April and held on to the top spot for most of the season bolstered by a pitching staff that performed better than expected. Despite seemingly having at least one and usually two or more guys in their rotation that were locks to go no more than five innings, they won a lot of games and obvious weaknesses at the back end of the bullpen were not evident in the win-loss record. Things unraveled here in slow motion. The failure of anyone but Jhoan Duran in late innings cost games (particularly to Cleveland). The extra innings assigned to the bullpen showed the lack of depth that so many short starts demanded. Back to statistics--the Twins currently are right in the middle of total runs allowed stats. Underlying stats (WHIP, Opponents BA and OPS and BB and K numbers) come out slightly below the mean. I think team defense has been slightly better than average, which has helped keep runs allowed acceptable. 
Injuries (oh my!). The Twins lead the AL in total man-games on the Injured List. They went into the season with one player slated to miss time, so it isn't like there were a bunch of players already on the IL. Some of the injuries could be expected and put on the front office. The Twins obtained several pitchers with injury issues and this season have come up snake eyes with most of them missing significant time. 
There have been plenty of position player injuries as well. Regular players Ryan Jeffers, Miguel Sano, Jorge Polanco, Alex Kirilloff, Trevor Larnach, Byron Buxton and Max Kepler have all missed significant portions of the season. Carlos Correa also missed over 20 games with COVID and a badly bruised finger. We all know Buxton hasn't made it through a season without spending time on the IL. The other guys would figure to be healthier than they have this year. 
Dick Bremer characterized the Twins as developing a "slow leak" from June through August. The leak has been accelerated in the month of September and injuries are a factor in that. That said, even without the injuries, the Twins' flaws probably were too big to win the division. The club exhausted their depth and seeing Jermaine Palacios, Mark Contreras, Caleb Hamilton, Sandy Leon, Aaron Sanchez, and (second half) Devin Smeltzer "perform" in key situations just shows that the Twins have scraped bottom.
I think some roster turnover is necessary. Among the position players, they need more guys who make contact, are better base runners and who have more speed. They need more left-right balance in corner outfielders. The front office needs to adjust their focus and bring in more durable players. It should be noted that the position players they brought in (Urshela, Sanchez and Correa) have been basically healthy. The problem has been with the pitchers. 
I think there is too much talent to tear it down. If the club fails to compete next year, it is probably time to try something else, starting at the top. It won't be easy to win the Central next year, but there needs to be significant progress and better health.
 
 
 

What the heck, I splurged

When you think of players on the bench, usually there is a reason they are on the bench.  Usually the bench players can field really well but not hit, or they hit and can't field, or they have severe platoon splits.  Whatever the reason its there, they are not able to be successful enough as everyday players.  Looking at our bench we have players that fit that mold in one shape or another.  but when you look at the production we are getting from our bench players you have to take notice and appreciate the job they are doing.
Gordon is a player that appears to be just shy of being good enough to be an everyday starter.  not enough walks and not enough power and just low enough batting average to keep the obp low.  but he has speed and has taken well to playing the OF.  He is even OPS+ 104 as of today.  with 16 XBH in 193 AB he is only -3 in what I consider average power.  (1 XBH per 10 AB)  Garlic has 7 HRs and an OPS+ of 148 Killeroff and Miranda are raking and now OPS+ 107 and OPS+ 111 after really slow starts.  Gary Sanchez is a league average hitter for a back up C with an OPS + 96  Celestino has been slumping lately but was hitting over .300 for most of the season and is at OPS+ 94 Celestino is also the only bench player with little power at all with 8 XBH in 147 AB as a -6 or -7 if you round up.  
Compared to other play off contenders:
The Redsox have Refsnyder off to his fast start and Duran as the only 2 OPS+ 100 or more players on their bench.  in fact Cordero at OPS+ 90 is the next best and there is a drop off from there.
The Rays have 2 OPS+ 130 players in Paredes and Margot (on 60 day DL) and no one with any serious playing time is over OPS+70
The Yankees are getting production from their bench but dont really use them that often.  Marwin GOnzales is league average at OPS+100 Matt Carpenter is hitting HRs like Garlic, and Hicks and LeMahieu should be starters are both over OPS+100
On the Whitesox bench the good players are hurt, or do not have much playing time while the bad players are getting the bulk of time at this point and they are not hitting well at all.
Houston's bench is their achillies heal as well theyhave one player at OPS+104 and no one else over OPS+95  
Cleveland's bench is bad too.  
So if you are looking for an area where we stack up better than the rest of the league (Maybe the Yankees are as good if not better).  Look no further than our bench.  

OK Twins fans, lets see if we can get some unique ideas on how to improve the MLB All Star experience.
You are the Commissioner for a Day, You can make unilateral decisions on the All Star Game (OK I know he can't, but let's pretend).
Here are a couple of mine.
1) a hitting "skills" competition.  MLB has the HR Derby which is the equivalent to the Slam Dunk contest. But what is MLB's Skilsl Competition?
How about a point based challenge with team and individual winners. Batters get points based on if they would have gotten a hit. How do you do that?  First you take teh average size of each MLB position player. Second you take the average range of each MLB position player. You use these dimensions to develop "blacked out areas" which would be outs. on the infield you could build mini walls or nets that encompass the space a typical infielder would be able to cover, and as high as the typical infielder could leap for a liner. Thos are placed in the infield. You hit them your out, you get it past them and you get a hit (insert point total here) For the outfield you could either do the same, just create markings on the ground, or even funner yet, have baskets on wheels with remote controls to position and chase after balls. these could be controlled by the opposing teams. for each ball caught it subtracts points, and fo reach base hit they get points.  (or you could just put live players in the outfield but that could just create potential for injury. You could then add all sorts of fun things.  you could have "Money Balls" where a section of the field is identified JUST before each pitch, where if the batter is able to get a hit to that area of the field they get bonus points.  This would help reward the players like Arraez and other hitters who are PURE hitters, and put the ball where it is needed based on skill. Heck could even raise money for charity by having each of the sections or nets sponsored corproately.
 
OK so nto completely fleshed out, but something different from a "skills"  perspective would be fun.
 
2) A community involved HR Derby.   
Fans can come and pay like $10-20 to get a bucket of 10 balls. fans also register as a fan of a specific team. the fans HR then get put into either an NL bucket or an AL bucket. whichever bucket ends up with the most fan HR has that team with the tiebreaker advantage. This eliminates the extra inning games, which while can be fun, are pointless in an exhibition. ALSO having to prepare for extra innings means some players are "kept in reserve" in case it goes extra and do not get to participate in what may be their ONLY All Star game appearance.
This makes the fans feel part of the game. PLUS you can do a "Split the Pot" type thing, where all of the money goes into a pot. for each HR hit that fan gets an entry into a drawing to Split the Pot. When the winner is drawn they get half the money in the pot, and the team that they registered as a fan for gets the other half to go their Team Community Fund. You could have a children's HR fence and an Adults HR fence.  The children's HR fence still counts towards the tie breaker, but obviously under 18 cannot get entry to win money. Can you imagine being a 10 year old and you hitting HR could help your favorite team/player win the All Satr Game!!!  How cool would that be!!
 
As far as the game goes... inning by inning, not sure I would change it, I like that it is as close to a real gaem as any All Star game is.
 
So those are my goofy thoughts.
 
What would you do to change the All Star game... the actual game, the weekend experience, the selection process, etc.????
 
 
 
 

Writing one column for every Twins series has made me realize how fickle a fan I am. If the Twins lose a few more than they win, I’m the first guy to say we’re all doomed. Twins win a few and I’m starting to plan for the playoffs. Win and strut about. Lose and pout in the corner. I’m the exact kind of fan that drives other fans nuts.
Today, though, I feel as if I’ve arrived in a moment of clarity. The Twins are far enough into the season for me to say they are a play-off worthy team. There’s a lot of season left, and they still might not get there. But they could, and they really ought to. Maybe they’ll even win a playoff game along the way. Maybe we’ll even get to have the tastiest revenge of all.
I feel comfortable saying this because the pieces are a little clearer to me. For starters (pun fully intended), we’re getting back several injured pitchers. Gray and Ryan threw against the Mariners. I believe Winder will be back soon, too. If they stay on the field, things look a lot better for the team. With better pitching on the mound, the Twins won’t have to score 7 runs a game to win.
When they do need to score runs, though, I believe they have the bats. Buxton is hitting again, and Correa’s going to go on a tear soon. Maybe Kirilloff comes back and Jeffers gets it together. It could happen. Then there’s Luis Arráez. Like everyone else in Twins Territory, I’m currently in love with Luis Arráez. Every time he gets to the plate, he’s got a real good chance of getting on base. He’s money in the bank. Doesn’t matter what the count is – he’s going to get on base.
So what would our revenge be? Well, if you haven’t noticed, the Yankees are doing exceptionally well this year. If you know a Yankees’ fan, you probably already know this. At the time I wrote this, they are atop their division with a record of 46-16. They could potentially break the MLB record for most wins in a season.
I think it would be just spiffy if the Yankees did break that record. And then faced the Minnesota Twins in the first round of the playoffs. And then, this time, they lost. The Yankees 2022 season gets stabbed in the back and dropped to the floor with TC Bear dancing around it like Jim Morrison celebrating the lizard. I’m not saying that would make all the pain of our playoff losses go away. I’m just saying it would feel pretty good for a long time.

With trade season approaching, the Twins find themselves in a unique position that could allow them to get creative.
Max Kepler has been pretty damn good for the Twins this season. He's one of the best defensive right fielders in the game and has posted a .243 / .341 / .400 (116wRC+). That's good for a 1.2 fWAR through 55 games.
Another guy who's been pretty good is top prospect Alex Kirilloff. What he's doing at AAA right now is fairly incredible. He looks ready for the next level, right? that .370 / .477 / .661 (1.139) line in 34 games makes it seem like it.
I'm sure we all are aware that the pitching could use some upgrades. I don't need or want to throw random stats and convince you otherwise. I'll skip that part.
It's my belief that the Twins can utilize their excess of solid RF's for an upgrade to the staff. Let me lay out the grand plan
Padres
San Diego's pitching this season has been outstanding. Yu Darvish and Joe Musgrove have been pitching like Cy Young candidates. Sean Manaea has been the perfect middle of the rotation innings eater. Mackenzie Gore has ended up looking like he's going to be the ace everyone thought he would be prior to his 2021 from hell. Nick Martinez might be the best bargain signing from the offseason. That's not even factoring in Mike Cleavinger who's just getting back into the grove of starting after missing 2021 with Tommy John or former Cy Young winner Blake Snell.
Looking from afar as a Twins fan, I'm not sure most of us could comprehend what that much pitching feels like. 
Unfortunately for the Pads, the bats haven't been as great. As a team, they have a slash of .237 / .313 / .365 (96wRC+ .. ew). That ranks them in the bottom of 1/3 of the league from an offensive perspective. It gets even worse when you look at how the lineup handles righties, .234 / .306 / .353 (90wRC+)
Compound that with the recent news of Fernando Tatis still not able to swing a bat, GM Aj Preller has to be on the hunt for some reinforcements at the plate.
Right Field has been their biggest achilles heal this season as they've compiled a total WAR of -0.3 and are hitting a .225 / .277 / .287 (63wRC+) from the position.
Internally top prospect, Robert Hassell is most likely still 2 years away from contributing as he is still at A+.... 23 year old popup prospect Esteury Ruiz, who was just promoted to AAA, has been on an incredible run hitting .363 / .489 / .656 (1.145 OPS). While they could count on him to be the savior in RF, they may believe him to be the savior in CF, as Trent Grisham and his .226 / .315 / .383 (698 OPS) over the last 200 games isn't cutting it. Maybe it's CJ Abrams? though they tried that earlier this season and it only lasted 20 games.
For a team that looks like it is "all - in" and has pitching staff that owns a sub 3.00 ERA on the season, banking on an unproven prospect when you have a 229 million dollar payroll probably isn't the most ideal situation. 
Lets take a look at how its shaken out this season ... 

Not exactly a group that gives you much confidence going forward.
SO, enter Max Kepler
Kepler would provide the Padres relief in a few different ways. Obviously the immediate production in RF vs what they currently have is a massive upgrade, both offensively and defensively. Secondly, Max's career slash vs RHP .242 / .331 / .468 (.799 OPS) gives them a proven veteran that can come in day one and elevate the lineup as a whole where they are the weakest.
But in my opinion Max Kepler's greatest asset to the Padres comes in the form of his contract. As previously mentioned, if he was traded by August 2nd, he is essentially on what is a 2 year 13 million dollar contract with a club option for 10 million in 2024. 

ZiPS, FanGraphs player projection model, anticipates Kepler will be worth about 2.5 WAR over the course of the next 3 seasons. Now its somewhat volatile but a win in 2022 is worth roughly 8.5 million. (read more if you are curious).
Max Kepler on his 2 year 13 million dollar contract (w / the club option for 10 million ) is making wellllll below what he would receive in free agency and the Padres would be hard pressed to find a proven veteran, offensively and defensively, that is both a better roster fit and under team control at a reasonable cost. (pls dont comment Juan Soto).
That's not to say the Padres could go trade for a rental like Andrew Benintendi, but does that really solve any of Aj Preller's problems?
Cause he could have some serious ones ..
Following the 2022 season, San Diego is set to lose 3 vital pieces of the starting rotation to free agency.
- Joe Musgrove (29) - 1.50 era / 72 ip / 72 k's / 2.1 fWAR
- Sean Manaea (30) - 3.85 era / 73 ip / 76 k's / 1.1 fWAR
- Mike Clevinger (31) - 3.18 era / 17 ip / 20 k's / 0.3 fWAR
There's a world where if those 3 starters continue performing at this level for the rest of the season, each could command an AAV of 20 mil - 25 mil + in free agency. The following season, Yu Darvish is set to become a free agent. That leaves them essentially with Mackenzie Gore as the lone controllable starter past the 2023 season.
This also doesn't account for their closer, Taylor Rogers, becoming a free agent after this season. But it only gets murkier for the Pads... Baseball Reference projects them to have a payroll around 147 Million in 2023 and that's before arbitration, which looks to be an additional 30 - 40 million. 
While I'm not a capolgist, ill do my best to break this down. They sit at around 229 million right now. It appears they seem to be intent on not going over the 230 million dollar luxury tax for the second consecutive year, as they would be penalized to a greater extent for being a repeat offender. (hence the Twins paying Rogers 6.7 million dollar salary to keep them below that threshold)
Put simply, if the Padres have any ambition to upgrade offensively at the deadline, while staying under the luxury tax, AND try to recoup some of Musgrove / Manaea / Clevinger / Rogers, AND THEN potentially get a RF in FA, they almost certainly have to move money around in a trade at this coming trade deadline.
Here's my proposal to how these two teams can help each other yet again with a trade.
The Blake Snell experience in San Diego definitely hasn't gone according to plan, Dennis Lin of The Athletic has reported a few times now that they have been open to a trade. Since Snell's arrival in 2021 they have received a 4.33 ERA over 153.2 IP in 32 starts.
That's not exactly what Preller and co had in mind when they gave up 2 top 75 prospects (+ more) for the 29 year old lefty who is owed 12 million this year and 16 million in 2023. look, It's not absolutely terrible, but it's not great.
With that said, there is hope for Blake.

The underlying numbers show that he's definitely not cooked. The velo on his fastball hasn't diminished, he's sitting around a 96 mph avg. His xERA of 3.74 through 5 starts this year tells a different story than the 5.04 era on paper. It's not a super inspiring, slam dunk lock, and far from likely synch that he returns to his Cy Young form in 2018. But it's a glimmer of what might be the start of a turn around to be an at least slightly above average pitcher.
It also goes to stay Snell hasn't been a complete bust. From June 4th to Sept 7th of last season, Snell started 15 games and had a 3.44 ERA with 100k's across 81 IP.
Zips, Fangraphs projection model, believes he can produce a 2.0 fWAR next season. Again lets go back to using the logic a win is worth 8.5 million. Snell basically is owed a 2 year 24 million dollar contract if traded by August 2nd. You get Snell for 2 months the rest of this season (hopefully more with playoffs) and all of the 2023 season. So you hope that he can live up to the projected 2.0 FWAR and you'd be happy paying him 16 million next season.
Snell started 65 games from 2018 - 2020. In 337 IP he owned a 2.85 ERA and had a 11.5 SO/9.
While the past 2 years as haven't been good, It's my belief the risk on a 29 year old lefty with that kind of track record is worth the gamble for the Twins.
Now what would the entire deal look like? Max Kepler definitely has more value, as we dove into that earlier, so a 1 for 1 swap isn't going to cut it. 
By taking on Blake Snell, the Twins would be taking on what is basically 8 million the rest of the season and 16 million next season.
The Padres would be taking on Max Kepler's remaining 4 million this year, 8.5 million in 2023, and have the 10 million dollar option for 2024. It's my understanding that its AAV throughout the duration of the contract that counts against the the luxury tax, and club options are not counted until picked up. So the Padres would be really going from 16 million to 6 million next season, saving them 10 million against the tax.
The organization has been stacked with top prospects over the past few years, but through trades, the overall depth has taken a hit. Abrams and Hassell are off limits, just not happening. But, their #3 overall prospect per MLB pipeline is catching prospect Luis Campusano, who is most likely expendable at this point.
Campusano has been a consensus top 50 prospect for about 2 years now, but has seen little playing time with the major league club, playing in only 16 games over the last 3 years. I find it incredibly odd that he's been stashed at AAA for 2 seasons now and has a slash line of .303 / .388 / .486 (896 OPS) in 117 games. 
I've read numerous reports that the industry isn't quite as high on Campusano and his ability to stick at catcher long-term contrary to popular prospect ranking sites. When you look at the Padres and what they've gotten out of the position offensively the past few years, that's probably true. Plus they've stated a few times they would rather go with defense at the position (Nola + Alfaro).
With that said, the Twins have a good track record of developing catchers on the defensive side, just look at how Gary Sanchez has progressed. Combine that with how Jeffers has played the past few seasons and Sanchez being a free agent, a possible long term catching solution would be a great get.
He could help support the Twins in a few different ways this season. Obviously a few days mixed in playing catcher, DH is always an option, and he has gotten work at 1st base in the past.
But with the question mark about his ability to stick at catcher and playing first might be a challenge as he's only 5'10, I would want one more upside piece in the deal.
Michel Baez is who I would target. Only 26, the former top prospect underwent Tommy John surgery in 2021 and has been rehabbing in AA this season. Baez worked out of the bullpen in 2019, his lone season with the Padres. He was thought to be a staple in the bullpen after posting a 3.03 era in 29.2 IP with 28ks.
Baez has looked sharp this season in his rehab stints this year touting a 2.45 era in 18 IP with 23 k's. It feels like he's not going to be down in AA for much longer. This would be the perfect flier to help the Twins going forward the next few years.

The popular site -  https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/trade-simulator/ , has this deal about dead even between the Twins and Padres. While I believe Campusano is overvalued in their model based on the fact that it has him pegged as a sure fire catcher, I think it undervalues Snell slightly in terms of the potential he may still have, The Baez throw in seems to be perfectly valued for a guy coming off TJ and only has 23 MLB innings logged. Nothing more than a flier. 
At the end of the day, the Padres get an above average RF for the next 3 years at an extremely discounted rate and save 10 million on the books for the next 2 years. The Twins continue the movement in top prospects blossoming at the major league level, get another rotation piece with upside for the next 1.5 years, a great catching prospect, and a young controllable bullpen flier piece with proven success. 
Oh and Kirilloff comes in to hit .300 / .375 / .450 to replace Kepler.
Perfect world, right?
Thanks guys.

Back for a winning team. Let's get into the first month and a half.
- Buxton is all world and the Twins got a hell of a deal on his contract. Games played matters obviously, but the production outweighs the risk ten-fold in this situation. 
- The Taylor Rogers trade sure looks like a big L right now. Paddack TJ surgery. Pagan has been decent. Rogers leads the league in saves and has a .52 era with 15k in 17.1 IP
- Duffey has been bad. 93 and straight isn't fooling anyone. I'm not sure if his fastball used to have more movement but right now it is straight as a string. his curveball has great motion, he just leaves it up too often. I would like to see him out of high leverage situations for awhile.
- Correa is getting a little too much hate for my liking because he had a slow start at the plate like most of the league. His D at short has been gold glove worthy and his bat has came back. Anyone saying trade him and start Royce at SS needs to watch a little closer. 
- Speaking of Royce, I think his comeback to baseball in general has been amazing. I am very happy to see all the work he has put in pay off with success in the bigs on his first trip up. I could definitely see him taking over 3rd for the rest of the season. Miranda needs more AB's in AAA. 
- Celestino passes the eye test. The kid can play in the league and looks a whole lot better than last year. It might just be a confidence thing or the experience from last year paying off, but I think he has earned a starting spot. I also like Gordon as the main utility guy. He looks like he belongs too.
- Joe Ryan has been exceptional. I think he has legit ace potential and he has pitched that way so far this year. I was at his first start at target field last year and sat a section over from his people. It was a great time.
That's all for now. Let me know what you think!
Troy Kelley

This has been one of the most-requested features for a long time and I'm happy to announce that Dark Mode is finally a thing you can use across the site! Dark Mode is a new way to use Twins Daily, especially at night or in darkened rooms. Instead of the background being black text over white background, it's the inverse: white text over black background. Some people find sites easier to use and read in this inverted scheme and now it's really easy to toggle back and forth as needed.
At the top right of each page, you will see four icons in the red bar; the first icon is a half-filled circle. Click that to toggle back and forth from light to dark modes on the site. That's it!
Now, the site has become quite sprawling and while I tried to check every aspect of how this renders on each page, I surely missed some things. Therefore, dear user, you are my quality assurance team. If you see anything that's hard to read, doesn't work right, or just plain looks weird, add a comment below and I'll get it fixed as soon as possible.
For those of you who have been asking for this feature for so long, sorry it has taken this long. What seemed like a pretty simple feature actually turned into an overly-complex problem that I couldn't solve without quite a bit of effort.
Once again, I'd like to give a big thanks and shout out to our caretakers of Twins Daily; without their continued support, small-but-important features like Dark Mode would be much more difficult to implement. The added freedom to hire additional staff allows me to spend more time focusing on these types of projects. Thanks again!

Gilberto Celestino has had an interesting path to the majors, and one that reduced his initial shine for most of the fanbase. Celestino was acquired for Ryan Pressly at the 2018 trade deadline, alongside Jorge Alcala, in a very unpopular deal at the time. MLB Pipeline ranked Celestino the 15th best prospect in 2019, and 14th best in 2020. The consensus was that Celestino was a standout defensive center fielder, but questions about his bat and power limited his overall projection.
When Celestino was called up out of emergency in 2021, his initial performance not only confirmed the offensive questions in the prospect rankings but the calling card of his defense was also poor with -2 Outs Above Average coming from 56 attempts. Celestino was clearly overmatched at the major league level, as he played a handful of games at AA before making the jump to the Twins. Celestino accumulated a 22 wRC+ and -0.7 fWAR in only 62 plate appearances in 2021. 
Needless to say, when Celestino was added to the 2022 Opening Day roster the reaction amid the fanbase was tepid. It's probable that the Twins didn't even envision Celestino making the roster, as they optioned him to Triple-A St. Paul on 3/31. Many believed that his status on the roster was to be temporary, with rumors swirling about the Twins adding Justin Upton to be a source of right-handed power in the outfield. 
Derek Falvey even went as far to say that Celestino could be off the major league roster in a week's time. 
Flashing forward to early May, Celestino has outperformed expectations, and probably any output that could have come from Justin Upton. As of 5/9, Celestino has provided some of the best offensive and defensive numbers on the team. 
  AVG OBP SLG OPS OPS+ wRC+ wOBA fWAR bWAR Gilberto Celestino .324 .390 .405 .796 144 143 .361 0.6 0.4 FanGraphs has Celestino as the 6th most valuable offensive player on the Twins in fWAR and his wRC+ is the third highest on team behind Byron Buxton and the legendary Kyle Garlick. On the defensive side of his game, Celestino has 2 Outs Above Average (84th percentile). It's a small sample size, but how has Celestino been so valuable this early on? 
The answer to that question: Celestino has had amazing plate discipline. 
Season Pitches Zone % Zone Swing % Zone Contact % Chase % Chase Contact % Edge % 1st Pitch Swing % Swing % Whiff % Meatball % Meatball Swing % 2021 235 51.5 64.5 82.1 26.3 63.3 43.8 30.6 46 23.1 6 85.7 2022 145 52.4 65.8 96 15.9 72.7 46.2 28.6 42.1 8.2 8.3 66.7 MLB   48.5 66.8 82 28.3 58.4 42.6 29.2 47 24.6 7.2 76
The highlighted cells show that areas where Celestino has been outperforming both his 2021 self, and the MLB average. He's simply become one of the most contact-oriented players in the game, and one of the most discerning about balls and strikes. He's swinging and making contact at pitches that are meant to be swung at in the zone, and spitting at the outside pitches that usually result in outs. 
Among all players with at least 25 plate appearances, Celestino ranks 3rd in Whiff % (8.2%) , and 16th in Chase Rate (15.9%). To put that in further perspective, here's a look at Celestino compared to two other players with great plate discipline reputations. 
  Pitches Zone % Zone Swing % Zone Contact % Chase % Chase Contact % Edge % 1st Pitch Swing % Swing % Whiff % Meatball % Meatball Swing % Gilberto Celestino 145 52.4 65.8 96 15.9 72.7 46.2 28.6 42.1 8.2 8.3 66.7 Luis Arraez 351 43.6 66 92.1 25.8 88.2 46.4 19.5 43.3 8.6 5.7 60 Juan Soto 549 43.4 56.7 80.7 19.3 66.7 41 20.3 35.5 23.1 5.8 78.1 MLB   48.5 66.8 82 28.3 58.4 42.6 29.2 47 24.6 7.2 76 Am I saying that Gilberto Celestino is the next Juan Soto or Luis Arráez? No, but I am saying that Celestino is a supremely disciplined hitter with extreme contact skill. That doesn't always take a large sample to determine. Soto has a chase rate of 19.3%, which ranks in the 90th percentile. Arráez has a miniscule whiff rate of 8.6%, which is in the 100th percentile of MLB players. Celestino tops both players in these areas at this point in the season. 
The only knock on Celestino this year can be his lack of power. Both his Barrel Rate (3.2%) and his average exit velocity (86.9 MPH) rank below the MLB average. However, the Twins have plenty of slugging across their lineup to make up for that. Luis Arráez used to be the lone bat-to-ball man in the lineup with names like Miguel Sano, Gary Sanchez, Alex Kiriloff, and Gio Urshela. It helps to have offensive diversity, and Gilberto Celestino may be filling a needed niche that nobody expected. 

If Celestino's current blend of strong defense and astounding swing decisions holds up, he probably ranks as a starting-caliber outfielder on most major league teams. The lack of power will always hold him back from being a true star, but his skillset fits today's game more so than the previous half-decade. The surprise addition to Opening Day roster may have been the perfect fit for the 2022 brand of baseball. 
 
 

Our Minnesota Twins start the 2022 MLB Season at 11-8 and are 1st Place in the American League Central Division.

It’s a Small Sample Size, but the Twins have shown both areas of strength and areas of weakness in their first 19 games. Today, we’re going to analyze the following four items and label each as either a strength or a weakness:
• Starting Pitching
• Relief Pitching
• Offense
• Defense

Starting Pitching: Strength
One of the biggest surprises for the Twins thus far in 2022 has been the starting pitching. The Twins’ starting rotation was predicted by many to be an average to slightly above group. However, the numbers say this group has greatly exceeded expectations in the first 19 games. A few stats for you:
Team SP ERA: 2.39 (2nd)
Team SP Opp BA: .205 (5th)
Team SP WAR: 1.9 (5th)
Team SP WHIP: 1.01 (3rd)
Team SP HR/9: 0.80 (8th)
Team SP BB%: 6.1% (4th)
Team SP K%: 22.5% (14th)
Team SP WPA: 1.31 (4th)
Team SP LOB%: 81.9% (2nd)

It’s fair to say this group has greatly exceeded expectations through the first 19 games. Dylan Bundy, Chris Paddack, and rookie Joe Ryan have led the rotation, combining for 53.0 IP and 1.8 WAR (0.6 WAR each).

Relief Pitching: Weakness
The Twins’ relief staff was one of the main contributors the the team’s early collapse in 2021 (Mostly due to a reliever who shall not be named blowing several saves). While it hasn’t been as much of a burden on the team so far in 2022 as it was in 2021, it has been a problem and the numbers reflect that:
Team RP ERA: 3.94 (21st)
Team RP Opp BA: .241 (27th)
Team RP WAR: -0.3 (28th)
Team RP WHIP: 1.38 (27th)
Team RP HR/9: 1.39 (28th)
Team RP K%: 23.8% (16th)
Team RP BB%: 10.8% (25th)
Team RP WPA: 0.15 (18th)
Team RP LOB%: 80% (5th)

One of the main reasons that this group has struggled is that Tyler Duffey and Caleb Thielbar have struggled, despite being effective for the Twins in the past. Tyler Duffey has a team worst -0.76 WPA, and Caleb Thielbar has a -0.35 WPA. If this group is going to be league average, those two are going to need to figure it out.

Offense: Middle of the Road
This Twins offense had potential to be one of baseball’s most explosive units. In some ways it has. In other ways it hasn’t.
Team Batting RS: 75 (17th)
Team Batting BA: .225 (20th)
Team Batting OBP: .314 (13th)
Team Batting SLG: .369 (16th)
Team Batting OPS: .683 (17th)
Team Batting: wRC+: 107 (15th)
Team Batting K%: 24.6% (25th)
Team Batting BB%: 10.6% (4th)
Team Batting HR: 20 (9th)
Team Batting WAR: 2.1 (17th)
Obviously this group has its strengths and weaknesses. It’s fair to say that it was expected that this offense would rank high in HRs. But what really sticks out to me about this group so far is the BB%. They ranked in the 15-20 range every year from 2019-2021, but they’ve jumped all the way to 4th in 2022. I don’t know what caused this large leap, but I do know that more walks lead to a better offense.
And in case you didn’t hear, Byron Buxton is good at baseball.
The biggest problem with this group by far has been the K%. They rank 25th in the MLB with a 24.6 K%.

If you add all of the stats up, the Twins’ offense has been middle of the road. If the Twins want their offense to be Top 10 in MLB, they’ll need to lower the Team K% and increase the Team BA. As the weather gets warmer, that may very well happen. We’ll see.

Defense: Middle of the Road
From Jorge Polanco’s terrible defense at SS to Luis Arraez’s terrible defense at 3B, defense has been a problem for the Twins over the last couple of years. In theory, this defense should be pretty good. A speedy Buxton in CF combined with Carlos Correa at SS and Max Kepler in RF sounds awesome.
So far in 2022, the Twins’ defense has a FP of 98.8% (11th) and has committed 4 Errors (12th). There isn’t a lot to say here. The Twins’ defense has been about average and hasn’t made any game-losing blunders thus far.

To recap, the Twins’ starting rotation is the main reason for their winning streak. Their relief staff has coughed up multiple leads. Their offense and defense have been up and down. If the Twins want to be a contender in 2022, they will need to shore up their relief staff and lower their strikeout numbers. Their starting staff will also need to continue to perform well.

"I'm not superstitious. But I'm a little stitious." - Michael Scott
As fans of The Office know, Michael Scott can sometimes share deep knowledge. I think a lot of us are a little "stitious" when it comes to baseball. Prior to this Twins/Tigers series, I'd have told you I'm not a very superstitious person at all. Then, my coworker and I made Max Kepler good again.
I'll explain.
Before the series started, we were talking about Miguel Sano. We both remembered Aaron Gleeman's mailbag column where he showed Kepler was in the same boat as Sano, except Kepler got less grief. My friend said he thought Kepler could break out of it. Then, bam! Four home runs in two games (we'll just ignore that pesky third game for now). Kepler's hot. 
Maybe we need to talk about a Sano breakout next. 
Do I believe that we caused a major league ballplayer to hit better because of a hallway conversation? You know what? I kinda do. Just like I kinda think I jinxed the Timberwolves by watching Game 5 instead of going to bed early. I believe you can reverse jinx rainy weather by predicting it. I believe you don't talk about a no-hitter while it's going on. I once got Michael Cuddyer to hit home runs by wearing his shirsey. 
Of course, math and statistics doth make a liar out of me.. I UNDERSTAND that luck is just an illusion, but I KNOW it works for me. Even when it doesn't, my brain will find some way to make it work. 
I was glad to see the Minnesota Twins are a little stitious in their own way. I read about Richie the Rally Goat in Do-Hyoung Park's game recap. Everything about this article is wonderful. Paddack sums it up best when he says, "Baseball gods are looking out for us, and Richie here, he's done a good job of being a rally goat." Good on you, Richie.
Let's face it - there are a lot of cold and unchangeable facts in the world. We need superstition to clear our heads from the frustration of banging them into the brick walls of truth and certainty. As fans, adhering to superstitions it the least we can do. Literally.
I bought my own Richie the Rally Goat this morning. Count me in! Let's be a little bit stitious together!

Baseball is a marathon, not a sprint . . . but I'm willing to bet you can spoil a marathon with a weak start. Mental fortitude cracking with the arrhythmic slapping of your feet against the pavement. Planning and precision giving way to panic. Comparing yourself to the other runners, who seem to be running flawlessly.
Baseball is a marathon . . . for the fans, too. It takes commitment to stay abreast of a whole season. The game this afternoon felt like a must-win situation to keep some sense of hope. These were winnable games against a beatable opponent. We won one, by a single run. For the fans to stay in this race, we're going to need to win a lot more. 
Of course, who am I to talk about marathons and baseball seasons? I've never run a marathon, and my baseball days ended in elementary school with me standing in right field, praying the ball would never come near me. I'd like to run a marathon by the time I turn 50, which gives me a little over 5 1/2 years to get this body into shape. 
People have been very supportive of my marathon pipe-dream. The way they describe it makes it seem simple. You start running. 26.2 miles later, you stop. Along the way, you keep your feet moving. Everyone says it's a mental battle. Right now, I'm battling to get in the gym and get into 5K shape. Little victories mean a lot. Just going to the gym on a day where I'd rather see how many peanut butter Oreos I could cram in my mouth is a victory.
This one run victory is like that. It keeps everybody grinding on, hoping the Twins find their footing, pick up the pace, and we all feel the breeze at our backs. 
It's hard to write series recaps about three lukewarm baseball games where one lukewarm baseball team faces another lukewarm baseball team. The biggest narrative seems to stem from Aaron Gleeman's revelation that this is the first time the Twins have ever batted under .200 for the first 12 games. Maybe a little chatter about some surprisingly good pitching. I bet I'm not the only one struggling to find something to write about, even at this early stage of the season. Hey, we can't all be Randball's Stu and hit it out of the park every time.
So let's pick up those feet and put 'em back down again, Twins! Get into the rhythm. Find your stride before it's late June/early July. Because before long it'll be time to listen to "Dirty Black Summer" by Danzig and pretend sparklers are still fun when you're over fifteen. I'd like to still be in the race then.

As I occasionally do, I checked MLB statistics today. I wanted to see how the team stacked up to the rest of Major League Baseball. Most teams have played about 10 games, so we have an idea of trends, although some things are out of whack. Baltimore has good pitching? Cleveland has the top team BA in the American League? Nah, those things won't last. What about the Twins? Well, with a 4-6 record and and -6 run differential, I figured the Twins would profile poorly on offense and middle of the road on the run prevention side, Here's what I found.
Pitching. Far from a disaster, but not league average. The Twins are 20th (of 30) in team ERA and 15th in runs per game. That difference is explained by only allowing three unearned runs despite 8 errors in 10 games. They haven't played any extra inning games and unearned runs really happen there due to the "ghost runner". Other stats--23rd in walks per nine innings, 21st in strikeouts per nine innings, 15th in Opponents Batting Average and 20th in WHIP (walks and hits per inning pitched). The starting staff has been better than expected, but the bullpen ERA is over 4.50. This looks like pretty good luck to this point--they're allowing more balls than average to be put in play, walking more than league average and still at the median for allowing base runners and runs.
Hitting. The only stat where the Twins are significantly better than league average is home runs. They are sixth in the league in homers per plate appearance. Other key stats--third in strikeouts per plate appearance, 25th in team OPS, 22nd in runs per game. Hitters are more predictable and projectable that pitchers. The Twins have been projected to be a good offensive team, probably enough to make up for their pitching deficiencies and hang around .500, so far that isn't the case. 
To summarize, it is early. The offense has been a major disappointment, but will improve. Pitching has been better than expected, but there are some number that predict a downturn. After playing three straight 90-win teams (from 2021), the Twins will face a less daunting schedule in the upcoming weeks. Hopefully, the record and stats improve over that time.

Every mention you see of Byron Buxton's transformation at the plate is inevitably followed by, "If he can just stay healthy."
After years of struggles with the bat, it appears that Buxton has finally figured it out offensively, bringing the talent he showed in the minors now to the majors and what made him the top prospect in baseball.
He was on pace for a historic 2021 season before a variety of injuries limited Buxton to just 61 games. Still, his .306/.358/.647 slash line from last year with a 171 OPS+ leaves fans hopefully that this is the year that Buxton can play 150 games+. If he can, Buxton will no doubt be in the MVP discussion and the Twins should be in the thick of a playoff spot.
So what does a full Buxton season look like? Where would it rank among the great seasons in Twins history. Well, lets speculate and calculate what that might look like.
 
Single-Season Twins Records

WAR - Rod Carew, 1977 - 9.7
Based on Baseball Reference WAR, this seems like the most likely team record to fall if Buxton stays healthy. He put up 4.5 WAR last season in just a third of a season (61 games). Over a full season, with the defense and base running, it seems possible that Buxton could have a 10 WAR season. How rare is that? Only 3 players have had a 10 WAR season over the past 20 years; Mookie Betts (2018), Mike Trout (2012 and 2016) and Barry Bonds (2002 and 2004). Going back further, there have only been 24 individual 10 WAR seasons since 1960 among 13 different players. 150 games of Bryon Buxton in 2022 would be awfully close.
 
Slugging Percentage - Nelson Cruz, 2019 - .639
Buxton had a .647 SLG last season in 235 at-bats compared to Nelson Cruz, who put up a franchise record .639 SLG in 2019 in 454 at-bats over 120 games at DH. Cruz obliterated the previous SLG record of Harmon Killebrew of .606 from 1961. Can Buxton sustain that power over a full season. His home run power has finally developed, hitting HR's in three straight at-bats this past weekend vs. Seattle. Given his speed, singles are stretched into doubles and triples??? may not be there. Why? I have heard it said that Buxton already has enough speed to score from second base on essentially any ball hit to the outfield, so why gamble for a triple? Buxton had 19 HR's and 22 doubles last year, but not a single triple. 
 
On-Base Plus Slugging - Nelson Cruz, 2019 - .1.031
The SLG% record and OPS will be close and tied together. Cruz's 2019 was one of the greatest offensive season in Twins history and may have gone under the radar somehow. Buxton's OPS last year was 1.067, so he is certainly capable of putting together similar numbers over at least a 60 game stretch.
 
Defensive WAR - Kirby Puckett, 1984 - 3.3
Buxton had a 1.2 dWAR season last year and put up a career-high of 2.6 dWAR in his 140 game, 2017 season. 
 
Runs Scored - Chuck Knoblauch, 140 - 1996
This one may be tough, but second place (Rod Carew, 128 runs in 1977) may be in play. If Buxton can reach base at around a 35 percent clip and have 550 plate appearances, that equates to 192 times on base. With All-Stars Jorge Polanco and Carlos Correa hitting behind Buxton, this one may be close. In 1996, Knoblauch reached base 197 times via hits, 98 times with walks and 19 times after being hit by a pitch. That totals 314 times, which is incredible. 
 
Total Bases - Tony Oliva, 374 - 1964
Buxton had 152 total bases last season in 61 games. Over 150 games, that comes out to 373 total bases. Buxton already has 16 total bases in just four games this season to lead MLB.

Home Runs - Harmon Killebrew, 49 - 1964/1969
Only three players in Twins history have had a 40 home run season; Harmon Killebrew (7X), Brian Dozier (42 in 2016) and Nelson Cruz (41 in 2019). Buxton's career high in HR's was last year with 19. At the rate Buxton has hit HR's the past few seasons, a 30 HR season should be attainable and 40 isn't out of the question.
 
OPS+ - Rod Carew, 178 - 1977
Buxton OPS+ last season was 171. In 1977, Carew's OPS was 1.019. When factoring in the era, Buxton will likely need an OPS near 1.100 to achieve the same.
 
Regardless of what records Buxton sets or doesn't set this season, it was been a fun start to the season for the Twins center fielder. We may finally get what every Twins and baseball fan has been wanting. A full season of health for Byron Buxton.

Happy Opening Week! As a Twins fan who was a kid during the Metrodome era of the aughts, I have fond, cherished memories of being swept away by the wind when the Metrodome doors were opened after games, the giant milk jug down the first baseline, the outfield curtain, Dome Dogs, and uncountable other quirks and joys. Though I have strong nostalgia for our beloved Dome, there is no question that Target Field is one of the most beautiful, scenic stadiums in the MLB. Nothing can compare to sitting out at a a game with your friends on a perfect 70-some degree evening, and Target Field certainly is a great place to do it. In celebration of our beloved team taking the field this week, here are some of my favorite things about Target Field:
1. The view of the city skyline from the 3rd baseline- I’ve gone to uncountable Twins games since Target Field opened, but I think I can count the number of times I’ve sat down the first baseline or in the outfield on two hands. There’s nothing wrong with sitting elsewhere in the park- they just don’t offer the same sweeping views of the downtown skyline. No, Target Field does not have giant tailgate lots like the Brewers or White Sox, but the stadium's location smack-dab in the middle of downtown Minneapolis makes up for it. The giant Target dog Bullseye wagging his tail in right field is also pretty cute. If you’re looking for something to do in between innings, try counting the number of times he wags his tail in a minute, then extrapolate that into month, year, etc.

 
2. Club Rayne during rain delays- There is nothing quite as groan-inducing as when the clouds roll in and the Target Field grounds crew descends upon the field with a tarp. However, rain delays are made much more tolerable- and even entertaining- due to the Twins opening up “Club Rayne” during each rain delay- a bit where the Twins throw a rain delay dance party and show fans dancing on the jumbotron to somewhat chaotic party music ranging from intense electronic music you might hear at a club to Michael Jackson. Last year during a rain delay my brother got extended screentime on the jumbotron by doing the Thriller dance. The Twins also find other ways to pass the time during rain delays; last year’s Home Opener was briefly stopped by a rain delay and Target Field played part of the NCAA hockey tournament that was happening concurrently. It looks like Club Rayne dates back to Target Field’s early days, so Twins fans have been dancing in the rain for almost a decade. I'm hoping for few rain delays this year, but if the clouds do open up, I'm ready to get down. 
3. The real organist- Target Field-goers may or may not be aware that the stadium has its own organ player- Sue Nelson- who has been the Twins’ full-time organist since 1999! Look for her upbeat stylings in the 2 Gingers Pub located near sections 214-216. In a game that's constantly evolving, having an organ played live is a sweet nod to the game's longstanding traditions- similar to the players wearing button-up shirts, fans singing "Take Me Out to the Ballgame," and coaches wearing baseball uniforms just like the players. Today, about 50% of MLB ballparks have a live organ player, so Nelson is one of the many reasons why Target Field is so special and unique.
4. Friday night fireworks- The Twins light up the downtown skyline with postgame fireworks every Friday night game from June to August. They are impressive shows that are accompanied by music- often tying in with the game’s theme (Star Wars songs for Star Wars night, for example). The downtown skyline and the Minne and Paul sign are simply a gorgeous backdrop to the show. The St. Paul Saints also do Fireworks Fridays too. It feels a little strange following up a Twins or Saints loss with fireworks, but the show must go on! Going to these Friday games is one of my favorite summer things to do with my friends because the show is a perfect, multicolor cherry on top to a beautiful evening. 
 

5. Minnie and Paul shaking hands after a win- Adorable and unique. I really enjoy how Target Field ties in both tradition with modernity (now to get the Twins to start wearing the “M” hats again).  Now that the Saints are over across the river, our favorite centerfield staples seem even more applicable. I also love how they play the same song after every win- 'On Top of the World' by Imagine Dragons.
6. Artwork outside the stadium- It is clear that the stadium was planned with painstaking detail; even the outside is lovely and unique too. The outside of the stadium is lined with murals and is surrounded with sculptures ranging from Kirby Puckett's iconic homerun trot to the giant glove that fans commonly sit inside to take pictures. Next time you're early for a game, take a lap around the outside of the stadium- I realized at one point that because I always park in the same spot and go in the same entrance, I didn't even quite know all that was there!
7. Cool giveaways- Though the Twins run a lot of special theme night packages, they still have some cool fan giveaways. The Twins always treat Opening Day fans right by giving away quality items like a Twins puffer vest or hooded zip-up sweatshirt. My siblings in particular love going to bobblehead days. Last year I showed up way early to get a baby blue giveaway jersey. Albeit thin material, it is a quality giveaway and will look great with a little ironing. It even has buttons and the patches!
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8. The Mascot Race- I love the Mascot Race and taking harmless bets with my buddies on who is going to win (I usually pick Bullseye- the Twins gotta uphold that Target sponsorship so the odds should be good, ya know?) I like Gracie the Gray Duck probably the best though. On Sundays the mascot race is run by cute kinds who rather than wearing the full mascot costume are just wearing mini versions of the mascot heads. The best was when the Twins had fans text in their pick for the race and if they won, they would get a coupon for something free like sunscreen or Oreos at Target. Let's bring that back, eh Twins?
9. Twingo and the Pick 3 Game- I have never won either but have come close. These are fun ways to be even more invested in the game and pay attention to the game's happenings. My Pick 3 strategy is to pick players who others are not likely to pick. Everyone is going to pick Buxton, so I gotta gain an edge somewhere, right? Then again, like I said I have never won, so proceed with my advice with caution. 

10. Dollar Dog Night- Nothing beats getting dinner- or following dinner up- with a dollar dog (or two or several). My friends and I enjoy going to these Dollar Dog games and buying round of hotdogs like people do with drinks at bars. They are delicious but not filling, so the amount of Dollar Dogs I could put away if I wanted is dangerous. Last year on a couple occasions I remember the Twins even toasted the inside of the hotdog bun! Not bad for a buck. 
 

 
That's it for now! I can't wait for another season of games at this beautiful stadium. What are some of your favorite things about Target Field?
 
 
 
 

Disclaimer: Despite the photo, no Byron Buxtons were used in the preparation of this blog entry.
Do I have to say it? Okay, I will, just to get it out of the way: I love the Correa signing.  Teams should be trying to get good players, and we just got one of the best baseball players on the planet, in the middle of what should be his prime years - a center-cut slice, as they say. 
But ever since I heard about it, TWO LONG DAYS AGO, there's been something on my mind.  Risk versus reward.  And I don't think I've seen any of the writeups here, or elsewhere, look at it from this angle.  Did we really outmaneuver the Yankees?  I'm not sure that's what happened, or that New York's front office is gnashing their teeth with regret in the slightest.
Everyone's treating this like it's a one-year contract, and I agree that that's the most likely way it plays out.  But it's not a one-year contract - the Twins committed to three years.  There's the saying that there's no such thing as a bad one-year contract.  The converse is that (because team budgets don't carry over from year to year) everything longer than one year requires the signing team to put its neck into a noose, to one degree or another.
So, what's the risk with this contract, and what's the reward?  The risk is pretty obvious and pretty easy to define - Correa could get hit by a meteor tomorrow* and the Twins still would be on the hook for the full $105.3M, which by their usual accounting would apply equally to the budgets of those three years and in some way impact their ability to operate.  Probably they'll pay him $35.1M for one year of service and then thank him for his service as he departs.  But they've put $105.3M on the table, and are risking it.  You know how you say you'd "bet your house" on some sure proposition? You don't really ever do that, because you would actually have to put the deed to your house out there to be taken if you are proved wrong, and you'd start thinking about all the ways it could indeed go wrong.  It's like that here.  The Twins haven't bet the (Pohlads') house, but there's a significant chunk of change on the table that wasn't there three days ago.  That aspect still seems underappreciated.
Now what's the reward?  Much harder to estimate.  There is expected reward and then there's maximum reward.  Let's focus on the maximum here, since I started with maximum risk.  I'll use WAR as a catch-all for how to measure a player's contribution.  If you want to skip the details, jump down to "I'll Do The Homework Later."
Carlos Correa may not yet have had his "career year" - remember what I said about us getting a center-cut slice?  He might go full-MVP bananas-mode in 2022.  Shohei Ohtani was MVP last year and his pitching/batting WAR on b-r.com added up to 9.0.  So let's go with that.  If Correa has that kind of year, he walks after the season, of course - goodbye and good luck, good sir.
Let's say he goes out and puts up "only" a season like last year, with a WAR of 7.  Same outcome.  He walks away, with smiles all around.
But maybe 2021 actually was his career year, and he follows up like that with an all-star level WAR of 5.  Same outcome - maybe he loves his teammates here, but bidness is bidness, amirite - he leaves.
Maybe he's only above average and his WAR is 3.  Probably he walks, right?  Still can market himself to a big market team for a long contract, certainly for more than the $70.2M he's still owed.
What if he's average, and/or injured part of the time, and his WAR is 2.  Maybe he stays, maybe he walks.  What if it goes really badly and his WAR is 1?  Same uncertainty - maybe he stays, trying to rebuild value.  WAR can be 0 too, or even negative.  Probably he stays, trying to rebuild value.
Okay, sorry to belabor, but my point is that if he stays, it's almost certainly tied to low performance relative to expectations.  Reeeeeally low.
Now, consider Year 2, 2023.  Seems like it's 90% odds that he's gone, and whatever WAR he earned for the Twins this one year is the end of the story.  But in that remaining 10% case, what will be your expectation of WAR for 2023, given that he put up 0 or 1 WAR in 2022?  Depends on why, but probably a WAR of 9 is now off the table - chances of a bounceback like that are just too remote.  Could he return to 2021 levels and deliver 7 WAR?  Sure, maybe.  If he does, then he walks after the year, and his contribution to the Twins is that number plus his (low) 2021 number.  Like around... 8 or 9, for the two years together?  It can't be much higher, because he would have left already.  Of course he might not deliver 7, but only 5 - he still walks after Year Two.  3 WAR - probably he walks.  Lower than that, maybe he stays.
So if it was 10% that he's staying for Year 2, probably it's also at most 50/50 that he's back for Year 3, or 5%.  And that will be only if he's put up WAR in the neighborhood of 0-2 the first year and followed up with 0-2 WAR the second year.  Now what are the odds that he suddenly goes bananas at last, after 2 straight sub-par years?  Really small, right?  Anything can happen, but an MVP type season really is unlikely.  He could win Comeback Player of the Year with a 5 WAR.  I think that's about the ceiling at that point.  0-2, plus 0-2, plus 5, equals... gee, 9 at most, again.
There are all kinds of ways to do this kind of analysis, because nothing is certain.  But I've convinced myself that the absolute maximum the Twins can sanely hope for, from this particular contract, is a total WAR of 9, whether in one season or spread across multiple.
"I'll Do The Homework Later."  Good, I don't blame you.  To recap: the Twins stand to reap 9 WAR as a maximum, by signing Correa - go back and do the homework if you think it should be higher, I really don't think you'll come up with a sound argument.  The Twins' maximum risk is $105.3M.  We don't expect the latter to happen, but that's the risk.
Now, let's compare.  What if a deep-pockets team had gone ahead and instead given Correa a 10-year $325M contract like some were saying, and let's assume no opt-outs?  Let's do a quick version of the max risk/reward analysis for that - bear with me for one paragraph.  As before, the maximum risk on the contract is simple: $325M is on the line, win lose or Tommy John Surgery.  What's the maximum reward?  If we're allowing a chance at an MVP-like 9 WAR before, we need to do it again.  He might do that in any of the 10 years of the contract, but let's don't go crazy and think he does it every time.  Let's say 1 year of 9 WAR, and a 7 (a second monster year), a couple years of 5 WAR (still a huge asset), three more years of 3 WAR (above average), and then 1 WAR each of the other three years if he hits a steep decline or sprinkles in an injury-plagued season or two earlier in the sequence.  So really, I'm not talking absolute maximum after all, merely an optimistic outlook for a window of contention involving a great player.  Those 10 numbers, they all add up to 38 WAR.  A starry-eyed optimist could look at a potential future hall-of famer and come up with an argument for more, like 50 - meaning inner-circle HoF, which I can't honestly rule out for him at age 27 - he's less than halfway through his career and is more than halfway to HoF status IMO.  But let's go with 38. 
Estimated performance would likely be lower but remember, this is max risk and max reward.
So, put yourself in the Yankees' shoes.  Do you risk $105.3M for at most 8 WAR, like the Twins are doing?  Or do you say, **** that, I mean forget that, we're rich, and by tripling our risk, we can more than triple our potential reward.  Isn't that what smart money does?
So I think they, New York, say no to the smaller contract.  They have deep pockets, and won't risk significant money for modest maximum reward, when they could invest 3X as much in risk and really hit the jackpot.
Max risk and max reward are not the only analyses a team would make.  Not by a long shot.  Anticipated actual cost and estimated reward also are crucial.  Let's say 4 WAR for 2021 to reward the (very likely) $35.1M he gets from the Twins.  Compare that to maybe 30 WAR over a 10 year contract that costs $325M.  Now the dollars per WAR are much more favorable to the short contract - it is center-cut after all, an advantage not shared by the full 10-year cut of meat.
But likely outcomes aren't enough.  A front-office that didn't present a solid risk/reward analysis, which I have merely half-assed in this lengthy post, would be laughed out of the room by their higher-ups - if, that is, the higher-ups had an actual sense of humor and were in a forgiving mood and didn't fire them for lack of due diligence.
Bottom line, this is a mid-market contract, in my estimation.  The expected reward fits the expected price, but the risks are disproportionate.  A big team goes big.  No regrets for the Yankees.  This is the kind of deal the Twins have to embrace, but by no means did they "put one over on them" when they traded Donaldson to the Yanks to free up the cash to make this happen.  The Twins had to, in effect, buy Correa a $70.2M insurance policy, to get him to commit to just one year at $35.1M.  It probably adds $10M to the cost that the team's CPA has to factor in.
Thanks for your patience.  I welcome nit-picks, or bigger criticisms.
 
 
* Let's assume a small meteor, and like in Princess Bride he's only mostly dead, yet still slightly alive and expecting direct deposits at his bank to continue

Well, THAT was a fun weekend in Twins Territory! Here are my jottings and scattered thoughts about the Correa signing and how it went down:
It was really fun to watch everyone learn about the signing in waves. You had the late-night crew who were up at about 2am Saturday morning when the news broke (*I* was not among this group), followed by the early morning crew who probably consists of people who wake up early for work Monday-Friday and can't sleep in on the weekends, followed by the later morning crew who either had really fun Friday nights or are just night owls. It really makes you wonder what that negotiating process looked like for the news to break at such an odd hour. The fact that there were no leaks/speculation from insiders preceding the signing made it extra exciting- it was a complete and total surprise. I don't want to be overly dramatic and say this is a "where were you when" moment, but for us, wasn't it though? I was among the early morning group who woke up to a multitude of ESPN/ Athletic/ Bleacher Report notifications and ecstatic texts and will not soon forget that moment. Let's say I woke up really fast.   With the barrage of parody insider accounts floating around Twitter, I'm sure some people thought they were being trolled for a few moments. Correa? To the Twins? Yeah, sure.  I love the Twins and baseball so much that I would be excited for the season regardless of projections or status of our lineup. But it feels great to be genuinely excited about something ABOVE and beyond that. We just got the top free agent in all of baseball! Take my money, Target Field box office!   Seriously though, in response to the signing, my brother texted me, "Lol I want to buy more tickets now," and I'm in the same boat. Yes, I sure did take advantage of that no ticket fees flash sale the Twins put on.  What a paradigm shift for this franchise that generally has not paid free agents. Now let's start making pitching moves. Return of the Bomba Squad!? I want a Correa jersey. But we'll need to wait until we receive word of the Nick Gordon vs Carlos Correa jersey #1 situation. Something tells me we will be seeing Correa wearing that #1 around the diamond.. Was I overly harsh on the front office? I'm going to go with no; no one could have expected us to land Correa. It really looked like for a while there we had downgraded at most positions (ie catcher, DH, and no viable starting shortstop). Given that the sole notable free agent move the Twins made before the lockout commenced was signing Dylan Bundy, who would've thought we'd be wheeling and dealing our way into finessing the Yankees AND landing Correa? Correa chose us. It's not like he was traded here against his will. Yes it's a strange contract he's receiving with those buyouts and I know he's trying to set himself up for his next big contract which, in his mind, may or may not be here, but he left the adoring masses in Houston nonetheless. Other teams in bigger markets would have been willing to pay him.  I still wish we had signed Michael Pineda and think it's a mistake we didn't do so; I already miss Big Mike. But more pitching moves have to be coming. Having this starting rotation with Correa on your roster is like having Ikea furniture in your Lake Minnetonka mansion. Time to upgrade.  I cannot wait to watch Correa in a Twins uniform this week, and I'm so excited for the applause he's going to draw on Opening Day Any other takeaways from you? What was your "where were you?" moment of the Correa signing?

Let’s say earlier this winter, as you shivered at home and headed out into the dark night of 4:30 p.m. in Minnesota to rev up the snowblower, your mind drifted to baseball and spring training. Sure, there was some CBA uncertainty at the time, but that was a mere specter miles and months off in the distance. You haven’t been able to go to spring training for the last two years, so Spring Training 2022 sounds extra enticing. And Rob Manfred- that confident, seasoned, labor industry-tested lawyer, is unequivocally confident that he will find a way to get the season underway on time. After all, he’s found a way every time! What could possibly go wrong?
Fast forward to *checks watch* right about now, and you find yourself with Fort Myers airfare, lodging, and lots of time on your hands. What are you going to do with it?
Never fear, Melissa the Fort Myers vet is here!
 
Go to the Spring Training Complex Anyway You traveled all the way down there, you might as well pay a visit to the scene of the crime at this point. The Lee County Sports Complex is home to Hammond Stadium, where both the Twins and the Ft. Myers Mighty Mussels of the Single-A Southeast League play, and a number of practice fields. The complex is beautiful and impressive- both Hammond Stadium and the grounds. With the constant hive of activity in the complex, you should be able to to just drive right in and grab parking. The parking lot lanes are all labeled with street signs named after different legendary Twins, so grab your picture by your favorite one. There is some cool artwork on the complex’s buildings and backstops including my favorite, commemorating Kirby Puckett’s walk off homerun in game 6 of the 1991 World Series.

You can also catch some minor league action with some batting practice or bullpens on the adjoining practice fields as well- as we well know, the lockout doesn't apply to *them*. There’s also a Twins Pro Shop located in the front of the stadium. During the off-season when I have visited, I’ve been able to walk into stadium and grab some pictures of the field as well. Everyone I have interacted at the complex have been unbelievably friendly and accommodating. JetBlue Park, the Boston Red Sox’s spring training facility, is located just across town and is also cool to see. It is essentially a mini Fenway Park- green monster and all (but Hammond Stadium is better, for obvious reasons). As a fun fact- Hammond Stadium was modeled after Churchill Downs!

Chug a bunch of juice samples at Sun Harvest Citrus After you stroll around the Twins’ spring training facility, hop over to one of my every trip must-visit places- Sun Harvest Citrus. It is only one mile away from the stadium and thus unsurprisingly a favorite amongst Twins players, according to the employees I’ve talked to there. My favorite part of Sun Harvest is the six kinds of free juice samples. The Strawberry Orange juice is my personal favorite, but of course I have to sample each one. I visited here last in November 2021 and can confirm the juice samples are up and running in their usual non-covid times glory.

I usually always get an ice cream cone here too- I get chocolate, but they have festive Florida flavors like Key Lime and Orange as well. There’s a nice gift shop, areas to sit outside, a small play area, and I always get my picture with the giant orange outside.

My usual chocolate ice cream cone at Sun Harvest Citrus
 

Me and my brother with the giant orange!
Frolic around the town of Fort Myers Beach (and avoid the spring breakers) The town of Fort Myers Beach is a hopping home to a myriad of resorts, shops, restaurants, bars, and of course its namesake beach. Whenever in Fort Myers Beach, I love walking out on the fishing pier, checking out the shops surrounding the times Square area (named after a prominently placed clock in the middle of downtown Fort Myers Beach), and of course spending time on the beach itself. For some beach reading, I'd recommend "One Tough Out" by Rod Carew and "Game Used" by Dick Bremer.
Last time I stayed on Fort Myers Beach, I in particular enjoyed eating at a restaurant called the Salty Crab because we got to eat directly out on the sand on a table illuminated by a single light the waitress clipped onto our umbrella stand. The Island-themed Yucatan Beach Stand was also memorable for me because its bar chairs were all swings! One night we also got some really good Mexican food at Mr. Tequila, located a little off the main strip.
Various companies on the island offer dolphin cruises, during which hopefully some happy, non-captive ocean dolphins will come ride the waves of your boat. There are also deep sea fishing excursions to be had, though this is not my personal cup of tea. My family loves playing Jungle Golf every time we visit the Fort Myers Beach area as well. Beware that spring training time is also spring break time, so Fort Myers Beach will be extra busy. Fort Myers Beach tends to draw a ton of college kids, but also families as well. However, I have always been able to find beach parking on the street or in parking lots no problem. If not, however, you could try parking at Bowditch Point Park, which is a nature preserve at the northern end of Fort Myers Beach.
 
Fort Myers Beach Pier

Times Square, Fort Myers Beach
 

Bar swings at Yucatan Beach Stand 
Go for a stroll at the Six Mile Cyprus Slough Reserve  Located less than three miles from Hammond Stadium, the Six Mile Cyprus Slough Reserve is one of my favorite places to go walking in the area. It features a 1.2 mile boardwalk over a beautiful, wooded wetland. Keep your eyes out for alligators, turtles, otters, and wading birds. Lakes Park is another pretty albeit more developed walking option that I’ve enjoyed visiting too- it features walking and biking trails and a boardwalk over the lake.
Catch some college baseball Fort Myers is home to the Division I Florida Gulf Coast University Eagles. If you have a fever and the only prescription is more baseball, the Eagles play a number of home games during the month of March. The Eagles recently hosted the Gophers on February 23 and unfortunately that resulted in a 13-5 loss for my beloved alma mater. Though not the Twins, sitting outside in the Florida sunshine to watch any sort of baseball sounds pretty dang lovely.
Visit Manatee Park Naples (not right now though) The caveat is that currently, now in early March, the manatees have mostly departed for greener pastures aka the warm water in the gulf. However, if you visit the area during the winter or on the early end of spring training in February, it’s likely manatees will be present in the park. Manatees are warm blooded, docile critters that flock to this park during the winter months of late December, January, and February because the water in the nearby gulf is below 68F- the coldest temperature manatees can be to maintain a safe internal body temperature. A nearby power plant warms the water as a byproduct of its operation, and manatees have figured this out and come to this park as a warm and cozy place of refuge. The park also rents kayaks. Check out the park’s website for recent news regarding sightings before venturing out to see these beautiful, peaceful creatures.
Bop around Sanibel and Captiva Islands Nearby Sanibel and Captiva Islands are well worth a day’s excursion and have some pristine beaches, unique restaurants, and some beautiful houses. My beach takes: The easiest beach parking is at Bowman’s Beach- which has a giant surface lot. The beach itself is lovely white sand and undeveloped. Lighthouse Beach Park has pretty scenery and a lovely, historic lighthouse, but I have found that this beach is crowded and not as nice and sandy as the other ones on the island- lots of sharp shells. Most of the people visiting this beach last time appeared to be here shelling, so it’s worth a stop if you’d like to see the lighthouse or seek out some sea shells (say that five times fast). Captiva Beach is at the very end of Captiva Island. It has a very small parking lot, but I’ve always had luck finding a spot here. Even if you drive to the end of the island and are unable to find a beach parking spot here, it’s still worth the drive to see all the beautiful houses along the way, each of which has its own unique name and sign out front proclaiming it. I've eaten at a bright pink restaurant called the Lazy Flamingo a couple of times- they have two locations on the islands.
 There will likely be long lines of traffic to exit the island if you want to stay for the the sunset, but if you want to get a jump on traffic, you can pull off onto the Sanibel Causeway Beaches and watch the sunset there.

Lighthouse Beach Park, Sanibel
Do some Twins reading or pondering at Lover’s Key State Park If the hustle and bustle of Fort Myer’s Beach isn’t your scene (or even if it is), Lover’s Key State Park is a 15 minute drive to the end of Estero Island from the Times Square area of Fort Myers Beach. It has two miles of untarnished, undeveloped, and beautiful white sand beaches and is surrounded by Florida’s famous mangrove trees. This would be a great place to get away and think about life’s great questions, such as the impact of modern baseball analytics on managerial decisions and the decline of bunting in the MLB.

Reading Dick Bremer's book at Lover's Key!
9. Get a history lesson at Edison Ford Winter Estates
If you're a fan of history like I am, you might like The Edison and Ford Winter Estates in Fort Myers.  it has a historical museum and 21 acre botanical garden alongside the winter homes of Thomas Edison and Henry Ford beside the Caloosahatchee River. I haven't visited the museum since I was a kid, but I remember loving seeing Edison's winter workshop in particular. 
10. Visit Naples (No, not Italy)
Naples is a gorgeous city about 55 minutes or so from Fort Myers. There's a super fancy shopping area called Fifth Avenue South that will be lined with Maseratis and Lamborghinis, the Naples Pier, and some incredible mansions. My family grew up going to nearby Vanderbilt Beach as well. When I visited Naples a few months ago, my best friend and I had a lot of fun driving around town and looking at the houses and walking out on Naples Pier. 
Fifth Avenue South in Naples