J-Dog Dungan

According to MLBTradeRumors, both Kevin Gausman (1,4 Orioles) and Mark Appel (1,8 Pirates) are both leaning against signing with their draft teams, both for different reasons. When teams learned that Appel, a Scott Boras client, wanted a $6 million+ bonus, he fell down all the way to the Pirates at the #8 pick. This means that instead of being able to get that much money for getting picked at #'s 1-3, he dropped to #8, and the most the Pirates can offer him without losing a first round draft pick in 2013 is $3.84 million, and the Pirates don't want to lose that pick. Therefore, Appel is not likely to sign with the Pirates unless he unbends and accepts the lower money. Gausman, on the other hand, wants to return to LSU to win the College World Series as he believes the Tigers have the personnel to do it. Therefore, Gausman, while he is still in talks with the Orioles, seems more interested in returning for his senior year. Not that I want the Twins to totally collapse in the second half, but if both of these pitchers are available in next years draft, especially Gausman, that could seriously help the Twins out. Unfortunately, if Gausman does really well, then the Twins might need to have the worst record in the Majors to have a chance at him. Therefore, while it may be painful to watch them be bad enough to earn a draft pick high enough to draft Gausman, he would do a lot to help the Twins rebuild their thin high-echelon pitching ranks in the Minors. In case you were wondering, the Twins currently have the 6th worst record in the Majors at 36-49 and a .424 winning %, with Philly as #7 at 37-50 and a .425 winning %. The five teams ahead of the Twins are Seattle with a .414 winning %, San Diego with a .391 winning %, Cubs and Rockies tied at a .388 winning %, and Houston with the worst W-L record at a .384 winning %. I would think that to get Gausman, the Twins would probably need anywhere from the 1st-3rd worst record, as it is unlikely that his stock will drop over the next year (unless he gets a major injury) and more likely that it will rise, and to rise from the #4 overall pick, you have the #1-3 overall picks.

According to MLBTradeRumors, both Kevin Gausman (1,4 Orioles) and Mark Appel (1,8 Pirates) are both leaning against signing with their draft teams, both for different reasons. When teams learned that Appel, a Scott Boras client, wanted a $6 million+ bonus, he fell down all the way to the Pirates at the #8 pick. This means that instead of being able to get that much money for getting picked at #'s 1-3, he dropped to #8, and the most the Pirates can offer him without losing a first round draft pick in 2013 is $3.84 million, and the Pirates don't want to lose that pick. Therefore, Appel is not likely to sign with the Pirates unless he unbends and accepts the lower money. Gausman, on the other hand, wants to return to LSU to win the College World Series as he believes the Tigers have the personnel to do it. Therefore, Gausman, while he is still in talks with the Orioles, seems more interested in returning for his senior year. Not that I want the Twins to totally collapse in the second half, but if both of these pitchers are available in next years draft, especially Gausman, that could seriously help the Twins out. Unfortunately, if Gausman does really well, then the Twins might need to have the worst record in the Majors to have a chance at him. Therefore, while it may be painful to watch them be bad enough to earn a draft pick high enough to draft Gausman, he would do a lot to help the Twins rebuild their thin high-echelon pitching ranks in the Minors. In case you were wondering, the Twins currently have the 6th worst record in the Majors at 36-49 and a .424 winning %, with Philly as #7 at 37-50 and a .425 winning %. The five teams ahead of the Twins are Seattle with a .414 winning %, San Diego with a .391 winning %, Cubs and Rockies tied at a .388 winning %, and Houston with the worst W-L record at a .384 winning %. I would think that to get Gausman, the Twins would probably need anywhere from the 1st-3rd worst record, as it is unlikely that his stock will drop over the next year (unless he gets a major injury) and more likely that it will rise, and to rise from the #4 overall pick, you have the #1-3 overall picks.

If we do make the trade, I would for sure take Deal #1; the question I have for that deal is: whether said Top 15 prospect has been effective in both AAA and the Bigs or if he is being shuttled back and forth because he has been ineffective?

A few things with this blog: 1. If you are ranking the SP's in your list by performance this year, Diamond should be first, then probably Liriano, DeVries, Walters, Duensing, Swarzak, with all the other pitchers behind them. 2. The listed stat line is are the same for Parms & Danny V. 3. While the Twins have next to no chance of winning the division this year, they have a solid shot of doing so next year if they can figure out one really good or two above-average free agent starters on the market this offseason. Their lineup and bullpen is good enough (as long as they don't burn the bullpen out this year waiting for better starting pitching) that they could seriously compete if they could just figure out what to do with their starting 5.

This is a great article that clearly defines the three position players that Twins fans could see as being All-Star Worthy, except for the emergence recently of Scott Diamond (if he had done just slightly better).

I also think that with the increased production from the players they brought in this offseason that the Twins will be unlikely to trade guys like Doumit and Willingham. I say this because I agree with another writer on this site who said something to the effect of Doumit, Plouffe and Willingham aren't as psyched out about the spacious Target Field like Kubel, Cuddyer, and Young, because they haven't known anything else, and are continuing to destroy the ball in this park. Therefore, it is likely that the Twins will try and trade Liriano, as he seems like the one piece, if he stays consistent, the Twins will even want to trade. Span has a very team-friendly contract for the next several years, Gardy appears to really like the production of Willingham and Doumit as well as the veteran leadership of Jamey Carroll in the infield, and Valencia has done nothing this year to prove that he will be worth anything in a trade. Therefore, this appears to leave the tradeable assets for the Twins coming out of the bullpen or starting rotation. If the Twins wanted to give guys like Guerra and Slama a chance, they could trade Capps and another guy like Swarzak or Manship to make room for guys like Guerra and Slama. The Twins also, if Pavano can somehow get himself healthy and prove that he can still pitch in time, and Liriano stays consistent, they could also find themselves traded before the deadline, not that I know who the Twins would replace Liriano in the rotation with.

While the All-Star Break is still about a month away, it is usually the best indicator of whether or not teams will be competing for a spot in the postseason and whether teams will be buyers or sellers at the deadline. The Twins, while having gotten out to another abysmal start due (this year, anyway) to horrendous starting pitching and the Twins' complete lack of any kind of hitting, with RISP or otherwise, are again using a weak schedule in the months of May, June, and hopefully July to give us hope that they will be contenders once again. And with the emergence of Scott Diamond as the staff ace and the Twins' newfound ability to score runs (They are ranked second to the White Sox in runs scored since May 16th, averaging 5.6 runs scored per game), we have a reason to be hopeful. But is there a reason to be hopeful? The Twins have a solid record of playing "Stomp the NL" in interleague play for a long time, and with the teams that they are playing, I don't see why that couldn't continue. After this stretch of games against NL teams, we then play 10 out of last 13 games before the All-Star Break against Central foes and then the last three against Texas. While the Rangers and White Sox, two of the AL teams we face before the All-Star Break, are contenders, I think the Twins have a serious chance to either gain or lose ground on the White Sox, and either one will decide the fate of certain Twins on the team. Fortunately for the Twins, they have Terry Ryan at the helm, and he will be much better at gauging whether or not the Twins will be contenders before the Trade deadline than Bill Smith was last year with that faux run over June and part of July. The Twins have several hot commodities on the trade market, as Span, Willingham, and Capps are all likely to draw serious consideration for trades near the deadline. Ryan's job will be to make sure that trades for these guys come when they are at their highest value (which should be close to the deadline when contending teams are looking for that "one last piece" to put themselves over the top.) While I would love for the Twins to be in a position to contend, it will help the team in the long run to trade at least Capps and Span, as they are the ones who have been given the most consideration to in trade talks and most likely to be in demand, although Willingham could bring a serious package of prospects if someone is desperate for his services at the deadline and willing to take on his salary, although he (Willingham) would be a great player to build the team in the interim of their return to a perennial contending team.

While the All-Star Break is still about a month away, it is usually the best indicator of whether or not teams will be competing for a spot in the postseason and whether teams will be buyers or sellers at the deadline. The Twins, while having gotten out to another abysmal start due (this year, anyway) to horrendous starting pitching and the Twins' complete lack of any kind of hitting, with RISP or otherwise, are again using a weak schedule in the months of May, June, and hopefully July to give us hope that they will be contenders once again. And with the emergence of Scott Diamond as the staff ace and the Twins' newfound ability to score runs (They are ranked second to the White Sox in runs scored since May 16th, averaging 5.6 runs scored per game), we have a reason to be hopeful. But is there a reason to be hopeful? The Twins have a solid record of playing "Stomp the NL" in interleague play for a long time, and with the teams that they are playing, I don't see why that couldn't continue. After this stretch of games against NL teams, we then play 10 out of last 13 games before the All-Star Break against Central foes and then the last three against Texas. While the Rangers and White Sox, two of the AL teams we face before the All-Star Break, are contenders, I think the Twins have a serious chance to either gain or lose ground on the White Sox, and either one will decide the fate of certain Twins on the team. Fortunately for the Twins, they have Terry Ryan at the helm, and he will be much better at gauging whether or not the Twins will be contenders before the Trade deadline than Bill Smith was last year with that faux run over June and part of July. The Twins have several hot commodities on the trade market, as Span, Willingham, and Capps are all likely to draw serious consideration for trades near the deadline. Ryan's job will be to make sure that trades for these guys come when they are at their highest value (which should be close to the deadline when contending teams are looking for that "one last piece" to put themselves over the top.) While I would love for the Twins to be in a position to contend, it will help the team in the long run to trade at least Capps and Span, as they are the ones who have been given the most consideration to in trade talks and most likely to be in demand, although Willingham could bring a serious package of prospects if someone is desperate for his services at the deadline and willing to take on his salary, although he (Willingham) would be a great player to build the team in the interim of their return to a perennial contending team.

Recently, the Twins have been showing more of the team that most people were expecting; a below-.500 team, but one that is still competitive and one that will win when they have good starting pitching. If the Twins had had better starting pitching at the beginning of the year, they probably would be a serious contender in this seriously weak AL Central (and technically, they are still in the race considering they are only 8.5 out with about half the season to go). Now, with the emergence of Scott Diamond and the number of good SP on the FA market this coming offseason, the Twins could have a solid contender next year, one that could go toe to toe with the Tigers.

2013 Roster (not in any particular order): Bullpen: Burton Perkins Duensing Swarzak Guerra Slama Burnett Starting Pitching: Scott Diamond Hendriks Blackburn P.J. Walters (?)/ FA Pitcher FA Pitcher Starting Lineup: Span Revere Mauer Morneau Willingham Doumit Plouffe Dozier Carroll Bench: Wilkin Ramirez Butera Mastroianni Parmelee Valencia could be in this lineup if he figures things out on offense and defense. I am assuming that the Twins trade Liriano and Pavano if they can get their trade values up enough. However, it is unlikely that the Twins will be able to get Pavano's value up enough to get anything for him when he returns from his injury, and they might just keep him through the season and then let him go. I am assuming that the Twins finally realize that they have gold in the minors in the form of Slama and Guerra, which means they could also trade a few relievers for a couple of prospects. The Twins could also give Carroll a permanent position if they trade Span, move Revere from RF to CF, put Plouffe in RF, and put Carroll in 3B.

2013 Roster (not in any particular order): Bullpen: Burton Perkins Duensing Swarzak Guerra Slama Burnett Starting Pitching: Scott Diamond Hendriks Blackburn P.J. Walters (?)/ FA Pitcher FA Pitcher Starting Lineup: Span Revere Mauer Morneau Willingham Doumit Plouffe Dozier Carroll Bench: Wilkin Ramirez Butera Mastroianni Parmelee Valencia could be in this lineup if he figures things out on offense and defense. I am assuming that the Twins trade Liriano and Pavano if they can get their trade values up enough. However, it is unlikely that the Twins will be able to get Pavano's value up enough to get anything for him when he returns from his injury, and they might just keep him through the season and then let him go. I am assuming that the Twins finally realize that they have gold in the minors in the form of Slama and Guerra, which means they could also trade a few relievers for a couple of prospects. The Twins could also give Carroll a permanent position if they trade Span, move Revere from RF to CF, put Plouffe in RF, and put Carroll in 3B.

I have to disagree that Carroll is on the bench. Unless Valencia seriously improves, they are going to leave him in AAA until he figures things out. I also think that the closer's job will Perkins' to lose. I also think that the Twins #5 pitcher next year might be Walters, but I wouldn't count on it. Also, you seem to be forgetting that the Twins have Blackburn under contract through next year.

I have to agree with what you said in your 3rd to last paragraph, where the Twins bats won't always be able to overcome their lack of solid pitching. However, the improvement (emergence, even) of players like Plouffe and Revere into their element are starting to make me hopeful for next year if the Twins can make some good moves over the offseason. This would include adding a solid FA pitcher to complement Diamond and Hendriks, if his success in AAA translates to the Majors. They should also resign Doumit to a multi-year deal because he has provided needed flexibility for the field and gives Gardy another catcher as well as an outfielder and pinch-hitter. If they can get something good for Span, then they should, but ONLY if Valencia figures things out in AAA or they find another solid 3B guy, perhaps in the Span deal. If they do, the Twins would have a good (or at least solid) 3B and they could give Plouffe a solid, and hopefully permanent starting position out in RF and shift Revere over to CF, where he truly belongs. With the bullpen depth that the Twins have recently come into, if they could find a good deal for one of them, then they should. Capps should be easy to deal if he keeps pitching well. However, they should hang onto Burton, Perkins, and Burnett, because they can be the anchors for out bullpen for years to come.

heheheheheheheheh, one of the few moves Smith made that is paying %$^%^& dividends!

I agree with what was said on the airwaves after the postgame show today was over; the Twins have until the All-Star Break to show whether we should be buyers or sellers. After seeing the game today, I am thinking sellers, but the Twins could prove me wrong if they keep winning series.

If only he could get through to Valencia and Hicks (and tell Hicks to stop trying to be a switch-hitter), the Twins could have two impact players up in the bigs right now so we wouldn't have to watch Trever Plouffe out in the field (only said that because I was at a game last year where he made 2 horrible throwing errors 2 innings in a row.)

With the current amount of relief pitching the Twins now have in their system, I was not sorry to see Mijares go. If the Twins would have kept him around, maybe they wouldn't have gone after Burton, who has been as good if not better than Mijares this season. Also, the Twins still have guys like Slama and Guerra in their system who have a much higher upside than Mr. McChunkes.

You got the scores for Ft. Myers and Dayton switched. Dayton won 16-7, not Ft. Myers.

Totally with you on seeing the potential with this team if they could just get their starters together.

If you remember, that was one of the reasons that Nathan left. He said he wanted to stay with the Twins, but he felt like there was too much turnover and wouldn't be able to get comfortable with all the switching going on.

There is no way the Twins trade Morneau with the salary he has coming to him the next two years (this year and next year). Span is the one that everyone can see the Twins trading for a good return.

What happened to Waldrop? i thought that he was one of the Twins last cuts before ST ended because he was injured, and now he is #66?

Totally agree with you. Plus, I'm not sure I would trust to bring him up as a reliever before Guerra or Slama.

Totally reminded me of Cuddyer pitching last year in a similar-scoring blowout

Is his slow delivery the only thing people see that he needs to work on, and is he going to drop in the draft with the injury he received?