Brady

If he does have some sort of physical limit on the number of pain-free swings he has, that would be pretty concerning to me. You can certainly try to manage around that (kind of like they've said their goal is to do with Buxton, valuing longevity over playing every day) but it seems like it would be difficult for him to get in any type of rhythm. You'd also run into the issue (projecting down the road) of him breaking down at the most critical part of the season. I'm still optimistic, and it seems like most people in the organization are too, so hopefully he will turn a corner and leave this injury in the past. He's incredibly talented and I'd love to see him carve out a role for the next several years.

Fair enough. I think it's just tough to accept that, for smaller-market teams like the Twins, it largely comes down to luck in prospect development to build out a rotation that can really compete with the Astros, Dodgers, Yankees, Braves, etc. year after year. I agree that they're moving in the right direction when it comes to targeted players. Taking a chance on Prielipp (potentially elite stuff, but with some injury risk) speaks to that. Maybe I'm just impatient, but I'm hopeful for the days when the Twins are no longer constantly chasing pitching at the expense of the farm system without significant postseason success to show for it. But that last point is a whole separate can of worms 😅

I agree with the point being made by many that they have done a really nice job of flipping our own MLB guys for Major League-level talent (Ryan, Maeda, Paddack, even Pagan), especially in situations where the Twins likely weren't going to get much future value out of the pieces being traded away. I think the point I'm trying to make is that (1) we do not have a true SP1/high-end SP2 in the system with an ETA within the next 2-3 years; and (2) trading away significant chunks of our system's Top 30 (at multiple positions) for guys that would likely be SP3-5 on a WS contender will make it difficult to feasibly compete at a high level. I don't think that organizational shift happens all at once, or that we need to consistently roll out elite SP prospects every year, but I would hope to see moves in that direction. I guess I'm taking more of a frustrated fan view than a rational GM stance, but it would be nice to see the Twins have some increased emphasis/success in end-to-end development of high-end pitchers (as I'm sure every organization would)

Saw this on Twitter yesterday regarding the origins of the current Twins pitchers, and I think it raises some interesting questions. No Major League team can sustain this level of external acquisitions in building a pitching staff. Just last year they shipped off Hajjar, Povich, Encarnacion-Strand, Steer, and others to get Mahle and J. Lopez, and this year it took Arraez to bring in P. Lopez. Brusdar Graterol was exchanged for Maeda, Chase Petty for Gray, and so on. Of course there is a flip side to this, as the Twins have turned Eduardo Escobar into Duran and Ryan Pressly into Celestino and Alcala during years in which the big league club was not competing. Lately there have been calls to make a move for Corbin Burnes, which would certainly decimate the top of the Twins' prospect pool. To me, the larger issue that we have put a net drain on the farm system to build the rotation, and to a lesser extent the bullpen. The Twins' struggles in developing high-end starters are well-known -- that's why it's so exciting when guys like Prielipp and Raya enter the fray. Ober, Varland, Woods-Richardson, Winder, and Balazovic all have varying levels of starter upside, but none of them will ever carry a rotation. My question is, when (if ever) will the Twins be able to rely more on homegrown pitching talent? What has to change for that to happen? Scouting? Coaching? Better luck in prospect development? In my mind, a true ace or two is the last missing piece, but I'm wondering where it will come from, and at what cost.

One thing I never understood about Sano was how he was relatively athletic in the field for his size (I remember him making some great plays at 3B when he was there) but that athleticism completely evaporated when it came to getting the bat on the ball. Obviously different skill sets, but you'd think that some baseline level of hand-eye coordination, etc. would carry over to at least raise his floor out of the cellar.

Assuming both Kepler and Gallo rebound from poor seasons last year (which I'm not convinced is a sure thing), it will be interesting to see how much of the improvement will be attributed to favorable outcome variance, the shift ban, and a better mental approach. If analytic techniques can parse out specific hits that would've likely been outs with a shift then we will have at least some answer, but overall I think it will be difficult to say. It's long been said that Kepler is an extraordinarily unlucky hitter (relative to his batted-ball metrics) so you'd think at some point the math would turn in his favor, but it hasn't since 2019. For Gallo, I think much of the improvement (again, that I'm assuming will come) will be the product of lapping a down year at the plate in 2022, so I'll be looking at how he does relative to his more successful campaigns. I'm hopeful for both and love what they bring defensively, but I don't think the shift ban will be a significant factor one way or another.

Only interested because he represents another LHP option out of the pen. I think Moran will be fine, he just needs a little more experience at the Major League level to really solidify himself. Thielbar is also solid, but at some point I'd start to be wary of regression given variance that is standard with relievers as well as age. But, Hand isn't immune to those same concerns. All in all, I don't see the point of overpaying for an arm that is, at best, marginally better than what we have in place already.

I think this is how it will play out, as well. Since you have Maeda (who at one point not too long ago was an above-average arm, albeit for a relatively short time) you might as well see how he looks in the rotation to start the year. He doesn't strike me as a particularly strong bullpen candidate either. I'd like to see Ober continue to develop as a starter and not end up in the weird purgatory of a SP prospect sliding to the pen simply to get him big league innings. There's absolutely a time and place for that approach, but I don't think it is the best fit for the Twins and Ober right now. I'd say let him get innings in St. Paul. Unfortunately, history and probability would say that he will make the trip over to Minneapolis soon enough due to injury.

Definitely excited about Prielipp, and I find myself hunting for a silver lining in his injury. Obviously you never want to have to go through the TJ surgery/recovery process, but if you have to, you'd want to do it young when your can body heal and develop much more quickly. For Prielipp to have already had TJ at 22 and still flash top-of-the-rotation stuff is impressive and speaks to the raw potential. Obviously this view ignores the not-insignificant re-injury risk associated with TJ, but I'm choosing to view it differently. He has so little inning mileage on his arm compared to a standard college pitcher that I can convince myself he is actually in an OK spot as it relates to arm health. I think that most college arms hit their ceiling in school and don't have a ton left to grow. As the article points out, Prielipp has a lot of room for development and still likely would've been a dominant force had he been able to play at Alabama. I'm hoping I'm not proven wrong with injury setbacks/lack of development, but it's very exciting for the Twins to have a pitching prospect in the system with the potential to be a #1 guy in the rotation, especially given the team's struggles to bring in such a pitcher via free agency.

100%. Absolutely no reason why the FO/Rocco should grant Kepler a starting spot simply because he's the incumbent. LHH outfielders is probably the area of greatest system depth at the moment and it would be a waste of that prospective talent to park them on the bench for old times' sake. I'm skeptical that the shift ban will reverse Kepler's OPS skid since 2019, so let's at least have a true competition down in Ft. Myers.

If the Twins can get more high-quality work out of the rotation, that will ease pressure on the bullpen and not just from a workload perspective. Pagan should only be coming in in ultra-low leverage situations, not critical 8th inning matchups because Duran had to put out a fire in the 5th. At this point, let's see how everyone (especially the starters) looks through the first month or two and decide if additional support is necessary.

I’m fully behind the idea of giving Gallo every opportunity to succeed early in the year. As you’ve emphasized, he will bring a very high K% and a BA that will compete with fan-favorite punchline Miguel Sano – that is well-known. But, Gallo has the added benefit of being an elite defender in the outfield as well as the potential to excel at 1B. I view Gallo as a more volatile version of Max Kepler. Kepler’s career low wRC+ is 93 (2016) and maxed out at 122 in 2019. Gallo bottomed out at 85 in 2022, but has also achieved 119 in 2017, 122 in 2021, and 144 in 2019. Framing Gallo in this way makes him appear (to me) much more valuable. For the Twins to have a chance at competing with the top teams in the league, they will have to hit on some lottery tickets. If Gallo can reach his potential, then great. If not, the Twins can benefit from his defense until they find a hitter better suited for consistent ABs (Gordon, Larnach, etc.)

Interesting question in that it speaks to performance, health, and prospect development simultaneously. In my mind, someone like Taylor only cracks the top five if Buxton misses significant time or Gallo/Kepler struggle and Taylor takes on a near-everyday role in the corners. Similarly on the pitching side, I’d hope to see Ryan and Lopez outpace Gray as those two really hit their stride and give the rotation a strong foundation heading into 2024. I’ll go: Correa, Buxton, Miranda, Ryan, Gray