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Adam Neisen

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Blog Entries posted by Adam Neisen

  1. Adam Neisen

    Derek Falvey's best trade

    By Adam Neisen,


    Trades
    We've reached the point in the offseason where the free agent market has dried up and - aside from Correa - there's no one left for the Twins to target.  If the Twins are looking to upgrade their roster prior to opening day, they will have to turn to the trade market. The front office of Derek Falvey and Thad Levine have made numerous trades over the past couple of years, with mixed results. Giving up an aging Nelson Cruz to acquire Joe Ryan turned out to be an instant success. On the other hand, the acquisition of Emilio Pagan and Chris Paddack has been anything but. Given the amount of trades over the past five years, one of the most influential deals has flown under the radar: the 2018 Eduardo Escobar trade. 
    Coming off of 2017, in which the Twins snuck into the wildcard after beating out the weak American League, the Twins looked to improve upon a young core consisting of players such as Jorge Polanco, Eddie Rosario, Max Kepler, Byron Buxton and Jose Berrios. After the Twins got off to a poor start, they were not able to recover and found themselves sellers at the trade deadline. After all was said and done, the Twins traded Brian Dozier, Ryan Pressley and of course, Eduardo Escobar. 
    In return for Escobar, the Twins received 3 players out of high A ball: 22 yr old Ernie De La Trinidad, 19 yr old Gabriel Maciel and 20 yr old Jhoan Duran.
    At the time of the trade, Escobar was slashing .274/.338/.514 with an OPS+ of 129. With his defensive flexibility, he also provided the Diamondbacks with some much needed infield depth. Despite never taking the Diamondbacks to the playoffs, Escobar was solid during his time there. 
    Year Age Tm Lg G PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS OPS+ TB GDP HBP SH SF IBB Pos Awards 2018 29 ARI NL 54 223 198 30 53 11 0 8 21 1 1 18 35 .268 .327 .444 .772 102 88 5 2 0 5 2 5/H   2019 30 ARI NL 158 699 636 94 171 29 10 35 118 5 1 50 130 .269 .320 .511 .831 111 325 8 3 0 10 3 *54/HD   2020 31 ARI NL 54 222 203 22 43 7 3 4 20 1 0 15 41 .212 .270 .335 .605 63 68 5 2 0 2 4 *5/D4   2021 32 ARI NL 98 400 370 50 91 14 3 22 65 1 0 29 85 .246 .300 .478 .778 107 177 1 0 0 1 1 54/H6 Over the course of roughly four years, Escobar posted a 102 OPS+ and a WAR of 5.6
    Now on to the Twins.
    Ernie De La Trinidad played in the Twins organization until 2021 and reached AA. Gabriel Maciel also played in the Twins organization until 2021 and reached A+ ball. 
    As for Jhoan Duran, he was arguably the most beneficial player for the Minnesota Twins in 2022. 
    Before looking at his stats, it's hard to miss his stuff. His fastball was the fastest in the MLB, averaging 100.8 MPH and topped out at 103.8. His famous "splinker" was also the fastest in the league at 96.4 MPH. On top of that, his 88 MPH curve held opposing batters to just a .120 batting average and has gotten a swing and a miss almost 50% of the time. 
    As you dive into his underlying metrics, it just keeps getting better. 

    His chase rates and K% are elite with 89 strikeouts over 67.2 innings pitched. Duran has also done an incredible job at throwing strikes with just 16 and a 2.1 BB/9. His chase% and whiff% are both 10% above league average. 
    Duran excelled at keeping batter's exit velocity and barrel percentage low, as well as forcing a groundball more than 60 percent of the time. All of this allowed for Duran to have great home run rates, something the Twins struggled with in 2022. 
    As a team, the Twins' bullpen ranked 18th in win probability added at +1.26. Duran alone had a +4.56 WPA, good for second out of all relivers this past year. While it may be hard to quantify, it's no understatement to say that Duran singlehandedly kept the bullpen afloat this past year. 
    In terms of overall value, Duran had a 1.5 Fwar, which Fangraphs valued at 12 million dollars. In comparison, Eduardo Escobar posted a 4.9 Fwar during his time in Arizona. It is important to note that the Twins have Duran through at least the 2027 season and he should be a prime candidate for an extension. The Diamonbacks however, got less than four years with Escobar before trading him to the Brewers. 
    While it is difficult to directly compare Escobar and Duran because of their different positions, the overall value and talent that Jhoan Duran will provide to the Twins seems likely to greatly exceed what Escobar provided to the Twins. 

    Fan morale is at a low, and a part of that is the front office and their lack of spending and big moves. But when they make a move that clearly worked out for them, it is important to recognize and acknowledge it. 
    Because of them, we get to watch Duran pitch for the next five years.  
  2. Adam Neisen

    What can we expect from Kenta Maeda?

    By Adam Neisen,


    2023 season
    Maeda was acquired in early 2020 in the three team trade that sent Brusdar Graterol to the Dodgers, He had a career year in 2020, posting his lowest ERA and FIP and his highest ERA+ and K/9 which led to a second place finish in the cy young voting.  For the first time since Johan Santana, it looked like the Twins had found their ace. 
    In 2021 however, Maeda was not quite the same. His ERA and WHIP jumped significantly and in September he underwent Tommy John surgery, ending his season. There was some belief that Maeda would return late in the 2022 season to some capacity, but the Twins scaled back his recovery process effectively ending that possibility. 
    Given the extra months of recovery, it is expected that Maeda will be available on opening day. At the moment, Maeda slots in as the 3rd or 4th starter in the rotation but that could fluctuate drastically. 
    Both Baseball Reference and FanGraphs project Maeda to finish with 70-80 innings pitched which would be substantially lower than his last full season and most likely has him as a long reliever. 
    W L ERA G GS IP     H ER HR BB SO
    5 4 4.25 18 15 82.7 76 39 11 29 81
     
    Year Tm Age W L W-L% ERA SV IP H R ER HR BB IBB SO HBP BK WP BF WHIP H9 HR9 BB9 SO9 SO/W Rel 2023 Proj. 35 4 3 .571 4.06 1 71.0 65 35 32 9 22 1 71 4 0 2 295 1.225 8.2 1.1 2.8 9.0 3.23 49% Both websites suggest the Maeda is due for regression even after a disappointing 2021. 
    There are multiple factors contributing to this. The most obvious one is that fact that Maeda won't have pitched in almost 20 months so his overall health and effectiveness have dropped. He is almost 35 years old and coming off of a major arm surgery which certainly explains his lack of innings pitched in the projections.
    There is still reason to believe that he could be effective. 

    Maeda is relying on his fastball less and less so while the velocity and spin are disappointing, it won't factor in as much. 
    Despite his poor season, his chase rate was elite - in the 89th percentile - while is similar to Julio Urias and even better than guys like Gerrit Cole and Brandon Woodruff. His barrel and whiff percentages were also well above average. 
    A similar case to Maeda's would be Justin Verlander. In 2020, Verlander underwent Tommy John surgery at age 37. He missed the rest of the 2020 season and the entire 2021 season. As a 39 year old, he returned and had arguably the best season of career and won CY Young. While Verlander and Maeda are by no means the same pitcher, it is interesting to see that older pitchers are still able to recover from Tommy John and not let it impact their following season.
    While I believe that Baseball Reference and FanGraphs are underselling his innings pitched in 2023, I don't expect him to return to his 2020 form. I see him finishing as our 4th or 5th starter with similar numbers to 2021. 
    Regardless of my thoughts, Kenta Maeda is crucial to the team's success in 2023. If the Twins are competing for a playoff spot, having Maeda provides significant depth to a rotation that desperately needs it. 
     
     
     
  3. Adam Neisen

    Are the Twins really that bad?

    By Adam Neisen,


    2023 season
    Right now, the general consensus is that the Twins are going to miss the playoffs. Some might go as far as saying that they are a 90-100 loss team. You could point at the two consecutive losing seasons or the loss of Correa, but is that the fully story? Are the Twins really that bad? Lets take a look. 
    Shortstop
    After missing on Correa (twice), This is the most pressing issue on the Twins. All four of the top free agent shortstops are gone so the Twins will have to make do with in-house options. That lands on Kyle Farmer. 
    Age Tm Lg G PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS OPS+ TB GDP HBP SH SF IBB Pos Awards 31 CIN NL 145 583 526 58 134 25 1 14 78 4 3 33 99 .255 .315 .386 .701 90 203 20 16 2 6 0 65D/H3   in 2022, Farmer had a relatively average season with a slash of .255/.315/.386 for a .701 OPS and a 1.0 war. He does provide defensive value with his ability to play all over the infield. This past year, the Twins were very inconsistent with their infield defense so Kyle Farmer certainly helps to support that. 
    One of the biggest things to get excited about this season is the eventual return of Royce Lewis. 
    Year Age Tm Lg G PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS OPS+ TB GDP HBP SH SF IBB Pos Awards 2022 23 MIN AL 12 41 40 5 12 4 0 2 5 0 0 1 5 .300 .317 .550 .867 145 22 2 0 0 0 0 6/8 Lewis broke into the league in early May to fill in for a injured Correa and he took advantage of his opportunity. While it was short term, Lewis demonstrated his ability to hit for both Average and Power. Similar to Farmer, he has defensive flexibility and can move between the infield and outfield. However, Lewis suffered his second torn ACL so his return isn't immediate or guaranteed. When healthy, his value to the team is immense and will be one of the most fun players to watch for years to come. 
    It may still be way to soon, but Brooks Lee is a name to keep an eye out for. He is the Twin's highest nationally ranked prospect and is an incredible hitter. He progressed quickly through the farm system and ended the season on AA. 
    Starting Rotation
    Year after year, The Twins have had incomplete and weak rotations and often relied on cheap, old free agents to fill out the back end. This year is different as the Twins have the deepest and most talented rotation in years. As it currently stands:
    1. Sonny Gray
    2. Tyler Mahle
    3. Joe Ryan
    4. Kenta Maeda
    5. Bailey Ober
    Depth: Louie Varland, Josh Winder, SImeon Woods-Richardson
    Sonny Gray was excellent for the Twins with a 125 ERA+ and a 3.40 FIP. The Twins should see similar results from him this year and as of now, remains our ace. Tyler Mahle Is somewhat of an unknown. He only made two complete starts for the Twins before ending his season with a shoulder injury but those two starts were excellent. He has similar stuff to Sonny Gray and is five years younger so it may be possible to see him competing with Gray for the top spot in the Rotation. 
    In his first full year in the MLB, Joe Ryan excelled. He was incredibly reliable, posting the most innings pitched by any starter. He also has the most potential of any of the starting pitchers and will hugely contribute to the team. 
    Kenta Maeda is a complete wild card. He was excellent in the shortened 2020 season and came second in the cy young. He wasn't the same in 2021 and he ended the season with tommy john surgery. It is unclear which version the Twins will get in 2023 but he has the chance to fit into the top of our rotation. 
    The remaining four guys are all interchangeable. They are all young and have good potential but we haven't seen enough of them to truly see where they lie in this rotation. 
    Bullpen
    This was debatably the worst aspect of the Twins last year and was the cause of way to many late inning collapses. This year however, the Bullpen is already looking significantly stronger. 
    Jhoan Duran was absolutely elite. He had one of, if not the best rookie reliever seasons of all time and he is crucial to the Twins success. 
    Year Age Tm Lg W L W-L% ERA G GS GF CG SHO SV IP H R ER HR BB IBB SO HBP BK WP BF ERA+ FIP WHIP H9 HR9 BB9 SO9 SO/W Awards 2022 24 MIN AL 2 4 .333 1.86 57 0 18 0 0 8 67.2 50 15 14 6 16 3 89 4 0 6 266 208 2.52 0.975 6.7 0.8 2.1 11.8 5.56 Duran was untouchable last year and could easily cement himself as one of the best relievers in all of baseball. 
    The other backend relivers - Jorge Lopez and Griffin Jax - aren't quite as good as Duran but should set up for elite late inning group. Jorge Lopez was lights out for the Orioles but faced some command issues with the Twins. He should get back on track and fit right in as the closer. 
    Another piece to keep an eye out for is Jorge Alcala. He had a solid 2021 season with a .972 WHIP and 9.2 K/9 but missed all of 2022. He has a chance to join Jax, Duran and Lopez in an elite reliever core. 
    As for middle relief, it still looks relatively strong. 
    Caleb Thielbar and Jovani Moran are the two lefties. Thielbar was incredibly reliable and Moran is still young but has one of the best changeups in the league.
    While Trevor Megill and Emilio Pagan were the weak links last year, they still fill out this bullpen nicely. Each of them have high velocity and great strikeout numbers. Towards the end of the year, Pagan added a new pitch and excelled. He finished the season with five straight scoreless outings. They certainly aren't fan favorites but to have big strikeout guys for middle relief is huge. 
    Youth
    I already mentioned Ryan, Duran and Lewis but the list goes on and on. 
    Jose Miranda was a everyday, middle of the lineup bat with a slash of .268/.325/.422 and 13 homeruns. In 2023 he will play third base consistently and his defensive should improve. 
    Trevor Larnach and Matt Wallner both played few games but look like they could become starting outfielders next year. Larnach was elite defensively and both of them hit for good power. If healthy, Alex Kirilloff will play a big role in the offense as he was great when he played. 
    The Twins have the arguably the best young core of players in years and they are going to make the largest impact on the team going forward. For any sustained success, the team is going to have to rely on these guys.
     
    It's easy to write the 2023 Twins off as a lost cause after last years disappointing finish but I still see reason to believe that next year will greatly improve on last year. 
    People are losing faith on the front office for missing Correa but they are still working to make this team better. The Joey Gallo signing adds defensive flexibility and a big bat with huge upside, but that won't be the last move. Whether it's another small free agent signing or trades, Falvey and Levine know what the Twins need and are hopefully working to address it. I would expect multiple, possibly creative deals prior to opening day to truly fill out the Twin's roster. 
    At the end of the day, The AL central is wide open. The Guardians and White sox haven't taken massive steps forward and are still easily within reach of the Twins. If we avoid being battered by injuries like last year, this team could win 90 games and be right in the playoff mix. 
    All we can do right now is stay optimistic and let it all play out.   
       
     
     
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