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  1. It will be interesting to see him compete in the WBC
  2. With a rotation suddenly loaded with high-end veterans, who get the Opening Day honors? Image courtesy of © Vincent Carchietta-USA TODAY Sports Spring training has begun, and the season is right around the corner. The start of the season begs the age-old question, who is the Opening Day starting pitcher? The Twins have never spent significant money or pushed all their chips in to acquire a true "ace," which has left the spot of Opening Day starter as a revolving door of pitchers. The Twins have used three different pitchers in the last three years and eight different in the past ten years. This year, however, the Twins are in a different situation. While they still don't have a real #1 that so many desire, they have five starters that all could reasonably start on Opening Day. Who's the most likely to get the nod? The most significant deciding factor is, more than likely, health. This past season, Sonny Gray was presumed to be the Opening-Day starter after his March 13th acquisition, but he was behind pace in spring training, and the honor was given to rookie Joe Ryan. It's possible that a similar situation may take Tyler Mahle out of the running. Mahle was acquired at last year's deadline but threw just 16.1 innings with the Twins before his season ended due to shoulder injuries. As of now, Mahle's spring training is going normally, but it is something to monitor as we head toward Opening Day. His upside is arguably the highest in the rotation, but he's only had one above-average season in his career. His lack of consistent performance and last year's injury makes him the least likely of the four to start on Opening Day. While he isn't a definitive #1, Pablo Lopez substantially raises the rotation's floor. His talent is similar to Sonny Gray's, and he has shown that he can be a workhorse-type pitcher, throwing 180 innings this past season. Lopez is pitching in the WBC for Venezuela, so his performance and health may dictate his chances for Opening Day. He is also brand new to the Twins, and teams tend to pick veteran starters with more experience on the team, so it may limit his chance to start Opening Day. Kenta Maeda is clearly another candidate. He was the Opening Day starter two years ago in 2021, coming off a (shortened) season in which he finished second in the American League Cy Young Award voting. But last year was a lost year for him as he worked his way back from Tommy John surgery. That doesn’t necessarily disqualify him, but there are more worthy candidates. That leaves the two front-runners: Joe Ryan and Sonny Gray. In 2022, Ryan became the first Twins rookie to start on Opening Day since 1969. Ryan was solid with a 2.2 WAR and a 109 ERA+. He also showed his durability by leading the team in innings pitched with 147. He has no history of substantial injuries and will be ready to go on Opening Day. His lack of a track record of successful pitching is the only thing holding him back. Sonny Gray proved his spot as the #1 last year with 2.4 WAR and a 125 ERA+. While he did land on the IL three times, he finished the season with no injuries. Gray is the veteran of the four at 33 years old and has already pitched an entire season for the Twins. Gray has been in the league for a decade and has shown his ability to perform consistently year after year. He also has a reputation in the clubhouse as a team leader. After looking at team history, previous injuries, and other factors, all signs point to Sonny Gray starting Opening Day. Gray has already pitched in live BP down in Fort Meyers and has no limitations in spring training. His previous time with the Twins and his veteran talent make him the strongest candidate to start on Opening Day. View full article
  3. Spring training has begun, and the season is right around the corner. The start of the season begs the age-old question, who is the Opening Day starting pitcher? The Twins have never spent significant money or pushed all their chips in to acquire a true "ace," which has left the spot of Opening Day starter as a revolving door of pitchers. The Twins have used three different pitchers in the last three years and eight different in the past ten years. This year, however, the Twins are in a different situation. While they still don't have a real #1 that so many desire, they have five starters that all could reasonably start on Opening Day. Who's the most likely to get the nod? The most significant deciding factor is, more than likely, health. This past season, Sonny Gray was presumed to be the Opening-Day starter after his March 13th acquisition, but he was behind pace in spring training, and the honor was given to rookie Joe Ryan. It's possible that a similar situation may take Tyler Mahle out of the running. Mahle was acquired at last year's deadline but threw just 16.1 innings with the Twins before his season ended due to shoulder injuries. As of now, Mahle's spring training is going normally, but it is something to monitor as we head toward Opening Day. His upside is arguably the highest in the rotation, but he's only had one above-average season in his career. His lack of consistent performance and last year's injury makes him the least likely of the four to start on Opening Day. While he isn't a definitive #1, Pablo Lopez substantially raises the rotation's floor. His talent is similar to Sonny Gray's, and he has shown that he can be a workhorse-type pitcher, throwing 180 innings this past season. Lopez is pitching in the WBC for Venezuela, so his performance and health may dictate his chances for Opening Day. He is also brand new to the Twins, and teams tend to pick veteran starters with more experience on the team, so it may limit his chance to start Opening Day. Kenta Maeda is clearly another candidate. He was the Opening Day starter two years ago in 2021, coming off a (shortened) season in which he finished second in the American League Cy Young Award voting. But last year was a lost year for him as he worked his way back from Tommy John surgery. That doesn’t necessarily disqualify him, but there are more worthy candidates. That leaves the two front-runners: Joe Ryan and Sonny Gray. In 2022, Ryan became the first Twins rookie to start on Opening Day since 1969. Ryan was solid with a 2.2 WAR and a 109 ERA+. He also showed his durability by leading the team in innings pitched with 147. He has no history of substantial injuries and will be ready to go on Opening Day. His lack of a track record of successful pitching is the only thing holding him back. Sonny Gray proved his spot as the #1 last year with 2.4 WAR and a 125 ERA+. While he did land on the IL three times, he finished the season with no injuries. Gray is the veteran of the four at 33 years old and has already pitched an entire season for the Twins. Gray has been in the league for a decade and has shown his ability to perform consistently year after year. He also has a reputation in the clubhouse as a team leader. After looking at team history, previous injuries, and other factors, all signs point to Sonny Gray starting Opening Day. Gray has already pitched in live BP down in Fort Meyers and has no limitations in spring training. His previous time with the Twins and his veteran talent make him the strongest candidate to start on Opening Day.
  4. From Griffin Jax's slider to Jhoan Durán's curve to Joe Ryan's four-seamer, these were the pitches that did the most work for Twins pitchers last year. Image courtesy of Brad Rempel-USA TODAY Sports Pitching in today's game is more advanced than ever. Fastballs are faster. Breaking pitches break more. All of that leads to pitching being more exciting than ever. The Twins are no stranger to this, as their staff has some of the nastiest stuff in the league, but who truly had the best pitch on the Twins in 2022? To measure, I am using Run Value (RV). Run Value looks at run expectancy in each unique situation and how a specific pitch affects that run expectancy. Run Value is through the eyes of the pitcher, so a negative number represents a good pitch because it lessens the chance of a run and vice versa. It is important to note that run value is an accumulative stat, meaning that the more innings someone pitched, the more RV they can acquire, and now on to the top ten. 10: Griffin Jax's slider: -7 RV 9: Sonny Gray's curveball: -7 RV 8: Jovani Moran's changeup: -7 RV 7: Caleb Thielbar's four-seamer: -8 RV 6: Jhoan Durán's curveball: -8 RV 5: Chris Archer's slider: -9 RV Archer was largely ineffective last year, with lousy walk numbers, and he didn't go far into games, leading to a WAR of precisely zero. The lone bright spot of his season was the slider, which snuck into the top five. Archer's slider rate ticked up this past season, and for a good reason: it was his only effective pitch. Opponents batted .202 against it, and he got a 26.5 whiff% with his slider. 4: Michael Fulmer's slider: -9 RV Acquired at the trade deadline, Fulmer's arsenal is slider heavy, throwing it over 60% of the time. He averages 90.3 MPH, which is top ten in the league. He was effective in his time in Minnesota with an ERA of 3.70 and an ERA+ of 106. His slider was a big part of that, as it held opponents to a .342 SLG and had a 24.7 put away%. 3: Jhoan Durán's four-seamer: -9 RV Arguably the most dominant pitch on this list, it doesn't rank higher in RV due to the lack of innings pitched. Duran had the highest velocity fastball in MLB last year with an average speed of 100.8 MPH, beating out other flamethrowers such as Edwin Diaz and Ryan Helsley. Topping out at 103.8 MPH and averaging more inches of movement than his curveball, Duran made opposing hitters look lost with a 25.9 K% on his fastball. 2: Sonny Gray's four-seamer: -11 RV Gray uses his fastball much less than the other top five on the list, at just 28.3%, but his results were just as effective. Nothing instantly jumps out; his velocity and strikeout numbers are average to below average. His opponent slugging however, was .345, 50 points below the league average. Gray's four-seamer has run similar to a two-seamer, and he was able to dominate the left side of the plate. 1: Joe Ryan's four-seamer: -21 RV Somewhat of a surprise due to his low velocity, but Ryan's fastball was elite. In terms of run value, that pitch ranked ninth in MLB and the fourth-best fastball, only behind Justin Verlander, Nestor Cortes, and Carlos Rodon. Thrown a whopping 60.1% of the time, it held opponents to a mere .174 batting average. Ryan's lower arm slot makes the pitch look like it's rising, making it especially difficult for hitters to pick up on. Joe Ryan and Jhoan Duran should be staples on this list for years to come, but spots are up for grabs. Which new pitches could emerge next year? Which pitches surprised you? Can anyone take Ryan's top spot? Leave your thoughts below! View full article
  5. Pitching in today's game is more advanced than ever. Fastballs are faster. Breaking pitches break more. All of that leads to pitching being more exciting than ever. The Twins are no stranger to this, as their staff has some of the nastiest stuff in the league, but who truly had the best pitch on the Twins in 2022? To measure, I am using Run Value (RV). Run Value looks at run expectancy in each unique situation and how a specific pitch affects that run expectancy. Run Value is through the eyes of the pitcher, so a negative number represents a good pitch because it lessens the chance of a run and vice versa. It is important to note that run value is an accumulative stat, meaning that the more innings someone pitched, the more RV they can acquire, and now on to the top ten. 10: Griffin Jax's slider: -7 RV 9: Sonny Gray's curveball: -7 RV 8: Jovani Moran's changeup: -7 RV 7: Caleb Thielbar's four-seamer: -8 RV 6: Jhoan Durán's curveball: -8 RV 5: Chris Archer's slider: -9 RV Archer was largely ineffective last year, with lousy walk numbers, and he didn't go far into games, leading to a WAR of precisely zero. The lone bright spot of his season was the slider, which snuck into the top five. Archer's slider rate ticked up this past season, and for a good reason: it was his only effective pitch. Opponents batted .202 against it, and he got a 26.5 whiff% with his slider. 4: Michael Fulmer's slider: -9 RV Acquired at the trade deadline, Fulmer's arsenal is slider heavy, throwing it over 60% of the time. He averages 90.3 MPH, which is top ten in the league. He was effective in his time in Minnesota with an ERA of 3.70 and an ERA+ of 106. His slider was a big part of that, as it held opponents to a .342 SLG and had a 24.7 put away%. 3: Jhoan Durán's four-seamer: -9 RV Arguably the most dominant pitch on this list, it doesn't rank higher in RV due to the lack of innings pitched. Duran had the highest velocity fastball in MLB last year with an average speed of 100.8 MPH, beating out other flamethrowers such as Edwin Diaz and Ryan Helsley. Topping out at 103.8 MPH and averaging more inches of movement than his curveball, Duran made opposing hitters look lost with a 25.9 K% on his fastball. 2: Sonny Gray's four-seamer: -11 RV Gray uses his fastball much less than the other top five on the list, at just 28.3%, but his results were just as effective. Nothing instantly jumps out; his velocity and strikeout numbers are average to below average. His opponent slugging however, was .345, 50 points below the league average. Gray's four-seamer has run similar to a two-seamer, and he was able to dominate the left side of the plate. 1: Joe Ryan's four-seamer: -21 RV Somewhat of a surprise due to his low velocity, but Ryan's fastball was elite. In terms of run value, that pitch ranked ninth in MLB and the fourth-best fastball, only behind Justin Verlander, Nestor Cortes, and Carlos Rodon. Thrown a whopping 60.1% of the time, it held opponents to a mere .174 batting average. Ryan's lower arm slot makes the pitch look like it's rising, making it especially difficult for hitters to pick up on. Joe Ryan and Jhoan Duran should be staples on this list for years to come, but spots are up for grabs. Which new pitches could emerge next year? Which pitches surprised you? Can anyone take Ryan's top spot? Leave your thoughts below!
  6. Carew might be debatable since he only played half his career in Minnesota
  7. Twins fans are blinded by nostalgia when it comes to 2019's Twins' Bomba Squad. Image courtesy of Wendell Cruz-USA TODAY Sports In 2019, the Twins put together one of the greatest seasons in franchise history. They won 101 games - second-best in Twins history - and cruised to a division win. Known as the Bomba Squad, the team broke numerous home run records, including MLB’s team record of 307, and they had five players hit 30 or more home runs. It looked like a youth movement was leading the way, but sustained success eluded them, both in the postseason and in subsequent years. In the postseason, the Yankees swept the Twins. pushing their playoff losing streak to 16 games. People look back at that team as one of the few times the Twins could be considered "true contenders," but in reality, they are blinded by nostalgia. The failures of the team all come down to sustained success. Sustained success is something that has been echoed time and time again since Derek Falvey and Thad Levine took over the team in 2016. The reasoning behind it is simple: anything can happen in the playoffs. The more times you make the playoffs, the more chances you have to go on a World Series run. The primary way to achieve this level of success is through team control. When trading at the deadline, players are often acquired as rentals. But trading for players with a year or two of team control gives the receiving team much more value. The same goes for signing team-friendly contract extensions. The Twins have committed to this philosophy in recent years through multiple moves. Pablo Lopez - traded for with two years of team control Chris Paddack - traded for with three years of team control and then a contract extension Tyler Mahle - traded for with 1.5 years of team control Jorge Lopez - traded for with 2.5 years of team control Gio Urshela - trade for with two years of team control Controlling players for multiple years solidifies parts of the team while also giving the organization the financial freedom to build around these players. In 2019, however, the organization ditched this idea. 2018 was a disappointing year, and in the following offseason, the Twins decided to fill their gaps with one-year rentals. It started in November when the Twins filled their first base gap by picking up CJ Cron off of waivers. Then they signed Jonathan Schoop to a one-year deal at second base, followed up by a one-year deal (plus a team option) to aging slugger Nelson Cruz. In February 2019, the Twins acquired Marwin Gonzalez for a two-year deal. To "fix" their issues in the rotation, they signed Martin Perez to a one-year deal. Notice the pattern here? It would have been easy to write off the season, except all those rentals started off hot and propelled the team into playoff contention. It became even more complicated as the season went on. By midseason, the one-year rentals were already starting to decline. Cron got hurt and had a bad second half. Perez had a hot start but got rocked the rest of the season. Schoop had a bad month in June and was mostly replaced by the up-and-coming Luis Arraez. Only Cruz continued to shine and was awarded the team MVP as a 39-year-old. By the time the trade deadline rolled around, either the front office felt that the early season success truly was sustainable despite warning signs, or they felt pressured to make a move to push the team further into contention. They added Sergio Romo and Sam Dyson. Romo was decent to finish the year, and the Dyson trade is arguably one of the worst of Derek Falvey's time. In the end, the acquisitions didn't matter enough, and the Twins fell short of the Yankees in the ALDS. The 2019 team produced great memories but had a lack of substance behind them. When one takes a step back and looks at the whole picture, one realizes how deceptive the year was in evaluating the Twins' future. The 2019 Twins were entertaining to watch, but when it comes to their effect on the franchise, people are blinded by nostalgia. View full article
  8. In 2019, the Twins put together one of the greatest seasons in franchise history. They won 101 games - second-best in Twins history - and cruised to a division win. Known as the Bomba Squad, the team broke numerous home run records, including MLB’s team record of 307, and they had five players hit 30 or more home runs. It looked like a youth movement was leading the way, but sustained success eluded them, both in the postseason and in subsequent years. In the postseason, the Yankees swept the Twins. pushing their playoff losing streak to 16 games. People look back at that team as one of the few times the Twins could be considered "true contenders," but in reality, they are blinded by nostalgia. The failures of the team all come down to sustained success. Sustained success is something that has been echoed time and time again since Derek Falvey and Thad Levine took over the team in 2016. The reasoning behind it is simple: anything can happen in the playoffs. The more times you make the playoffs, the more chances you have to go on a World Series run. The primary way to achieve this level of success is through team control. When trading at the deadline, players are often acquired as rentals. But trading for players with a year or two of team control gives the receiving team much more value. The same goes for signing team-friendly contract extensions. The Twins have committed to this philosophy in recent years through multiple moves. Pablo Lopez - traded for with two years of team control Chris Paddack - traded for with three years of team control and then a contract extension Tyler Mahle - traded for with 1.5 years of team control Jorge Lopez - traded for with 2.5 years of team control Gio Urshela - trade for with two years of team control Controlling players for multiple years solidifies parts of the team while also giving the organization the financial freedom to build around these players. In 2019, however, the organization ditched this idea. 2018 was a disappointing year, and in the following offseason, the Twins decided to fill their gaps with one-year rentals. It started in November when the Twins filled their first base gap by picking up CJ Cron off of waivers. Then they signed Jonathan Schoop to a one-year deal at second base, followed up by a one-year deal (plus a team option) to aging slugger Nelson Cruz. In February 2019, the Twins acquired Marwin Gonzalez for a two-year deal. To "fix" their issues in the rotation, they signed Martin Perez to a one-year deal. Notice the pattern here? It would have been easy to write off the season, except all those rentals started off hot and propelled the team into playoff contention. It became even more complicated as the season went on. By midseason, the one-year rentals were already starting to decline. Cron got hurt and had a bad second half. Perez had a hot start but got rocked the rest of the season. Schoop had a bad month in June and was mostly replaced by the up-and-coming Luis Arraez. Only Cruz continued to shine and was awarded the team MVP as a 39-year-old. By the time the trade deadline rolled around, either the front office felt that the early season success truly was sustainable despite warning signs, or they felt pressured to make a move to push the team further into contention. They added Sergio Romo and Sam Dyson. Romo was decent to finish the year, and the Dyson trade is arguably one of the worst of Derek Falvey's time. In the end, the acquisitions didn't matter enough, and the Twins fell short of the Yankees in the ALDS. The 2019 team produced great memories but had a lack of substance behind them. When one takes a step back and looks at the whole picture, one realizes how deceptive the year was in evaluating the Twins' future. The 2019 Twins were entertaining to watch, but when it comes to their effect on the franchise, people are blinded by nostalgia.
  9. Just because he was traded to the Twins, Pablo Lopez may already be in a position to thrive. Image courtesy of Sam Navarro-USA TODAY Sports Recently, the Twins acquired Pablo Lopez plus two prospects in exchange for Luis Arraez. While the trade could be unpopular and controversial within the fanbase, Lopez adds depth to a starting rotation with multiple question marks. Looking deeper into Lopez's numbers, you might notice something out of place: he has a drastic home/away split - and not in the way you might think. Due to familiarity, weather, fans, and multiple other factors, a pitcher's stat line is often significantly improved at home. Take Sonny Gray and Joe Ryan, for example: Sonny Gray Home - 67.2 IP, 2.66 ERA, 10.4 SO/9 Away - 52 IP, 3.63 ERA, 6.8 SO/9 Joe Ryan Home - 83 IP, 3.04 ERA, 9.8 SO/9 Away - 64 IP, 4.22 ERA, 8.6 SO/9 Pablo Lopez is almost the exact opposite. Home - 87 IP, 4.55 ERA, 8.1 SO/9 Away - 93 IP, 3.00 ERA, 9.3 SO/9 Lopez had more innings pitched, a higher ERA and WHIP, and worse strikeout and homerun numbers while playing at his home stadium. Why is this the case, and what could it mean for his time as a Twin? Baseball Savant uses multiple advanced stats to measure the differences between venues, including Park Factor, wOBACon, and BACON. Lopez’s previous home stadium, the Marlins’ loanDepot Park, ranks about average in all three. loanDepot Park ranks even lower for home runs, in the bottom third in the MLB. There is nothing out of the ordinary to suggest it inherently hurts pitchers. All of the loanDepot park factors are irrelevant now as Target Field will be his home field. Target Field favors pitchers slightly more than Miami, suggesting a slight upgrade in home-field production. But strength of schedule also appears to play a role in his reduced home numbers. Lopez played in the NL East, arguably MLB’s toughest division. At home, he faced off against NL East rivals four times, along with starts against the Padres, Dodgers, and Cardinals. All the teams that Lopez made home starts against have a combined win percentage of .516. For comparison, the Baltimore Orioles have the most challenging schedule heading into 2023 with a .509 win percentage. This should be a problem no more, as the AL Central is arguably the worst division in baseball. The Twins are heading into 2023 with the third-easiest strength of schedule at .495. Instead of multiple games against the Mets and Braves, he gets multiple games against the Royals and Tigers. The Twins will play 26 home division games next year, and assuming health, Lopez will get four or five of those starts. Every team and every individual player has their weaknesses, but the Twins are lucky when it comes to Pablo Lopez because there is a simple explanation for one of his glaring issues. Lopez should already see improvements by simply playing at Target Field and in the AL Central. By the end of the season, Pablo Lopez could implement himself at the top of the rotation and become a fan favorite at his new home stadium. View full article
  10. Recently, the Twins acquired Pablo Lopez plus two prospects in exchange for Luis Arraez. While the trade could be unpopular and controversial within the fanbase, Lopez adds depth to a starting rotation with multiple question marks. Looking deeper into Lopez's numbers, you might notice something out of place: he has a drastic home/away split - and not in the way you might think. Due to familiarity, weather, fans, and multiple other factors, a pitcher's stat line is often significantly improved at home. Take Sonny Gray and Joe Ryan, for example: Sonny Gray Home - 67.2 IP, 2.66 ERA, 10.4 SO/9 Away - 52 IP, 3.63 ERA, 6.8 SO/9 Joe Ryan Home - 83 IP, 3.04 ERA, 9.8 SO/9 Away - 64 IP, 4.22 ERA, 8.6 SO/9 Pablo Lopez is almost the exact opposite. Home - 87 IP, 4.55 ERA, 8.1 SO/9 Away - 93 IP, 3.00 ERA, 9.3 SO/9 Lopez had more innings pitched, a higher ERA and WHIP, and worse strikeout and homerun numbers while playing at his home stadium. Why is this the case, and what could it mean for his time as a Twin? Baseball Savant uses multiple advanced stats to measure the differences between venues, including Park Factor, wOBACon, and BACON. Lopez’s previous home stadium, the Marlins’ loanDepot Park, ranks about average in all three. loanDepot Park ranks even lower for home runs, in the bottom third in the MLB. There is nothing out of the ordinary to suggest it inherently hurts pitchers. All of the loanDepot park factors are irrelevant now as Target Field will be his home field. Target Field favors pitchers slightly more than Miami, suggesting a slight upgrade in home-field production. But strength of schedule also appears to play a role in his reduced home numbers. Lopez played in the NL East, arguably MLB’s toughest division. At home, he faced off against NL East rivals four times, along with starts against the Padres, Dodgers, and Cardinals. All the teams that Lopez made home starts against have a combined win percentage of .516. For comparison, the Baltimore Orioles have the most challenging schedule heading into 2023 with a .509 win percentage. This should be a problem no more, as the AL Central is arguably the worst division in baseball. The Twins are heading into 2023 with the third-easiest strength of schedule at .495. Instead of multiple games against the Mets and Braves, he gets multiple games against the Royals and Tigers. The Twins will play 26 home division games next year, and assuming health, Lopez will get four or five of those starts. Every team and every individual player has their weaknesses, but the Twins are lucky when it comes to Pablo Lopez because there is a simple explanation for one of his glaring issues. Lopez should already see improvements by simply playing at Target Field and in the AL Central. By the end of the season, Pablo Lopez could implement himself at the top of the rotation and become a fan favorite at his new home stadium.
  11. Alex kirilloff has a chance this year to be so good if healthy
  12. We've reached the point in the offseason where the free agent market has dried up and - aside from Correa - there's no one left for the Twins to target. If the Twins are looking to upgrade their roster prior to opening day, they will have to turn to the trade market. The front office of Derek Falvey and Thad Levine have made numerous trades over the past couple of years, with mixed results. Giving up an aging Nelson Cruz to acquire Joe Ryan turned out to be an instant success. On the other hand, the acquisition of Emilio Pagan and Chris Paddack has been anything but. Given the amount of trades over the past five years, one of the most influential deals has flown under the radar: the 2018 Eduardo Escobar trade. Coming off of 2017, in which the Twins snuck into the wildcard after beating out the weak American League, the Twins looked to improve upon a young core consisting of players such as Jorge Polanco, Eddie Rosario, Max Kepler, Byron Buxton and Jose Berrios. After the Twins got off to a poor start, they were not able to recover and found themselves sellers at the trade deadline. After all was said and done, the Twins traded Brian Dozier, Ryan Pressley and of course, Eduardo Escobar. In return for Escobar, the Twins received 3 players out of high A ball: 22 yr old Ernie De La Trinidad, 19 yr old Gabriel Maciel and 20 yr old Jhoan Duran. At the time of the trade, Escobar was slashing .274/.338/.514 with an OPS+ of 129. With his defensive flexibility, he also provided the Diamondbacks with some much needed infield depth. Despite never taking the Diamondbacks to the playoffs, Escobar was solid during his time there. Year Age Tm Lg G PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS OPS+ TB GDP HBP SH SF IBB Pos Awards 2018 29 ARI NL 54 223 198 30 53 11 0 8 21 1 1 18 35 .268 .327 .444 .772 102 88 5 2 0 5 2 5/H 2019 30 ARI NL 158 699 636 94 171 29 10 35 118 5 1 50 130 .269 .320 .511 .831 111 325 8 3 0 10 3 *54/HD 2020 31 ARI NL 54 222 203 22 43 7 3 4 20 1 0 15 41 .212 .270 .335 .605 63 68 5 2 0 2 4 *5/D4 2021 32 ARI NL 98 400 370 50 91 14 3 22 65 1 0 29 85 .246 .300 .478 .778 107 177 1 0 0 1 1 54/H6 Over the course of roughly four years, Escobar posted a 102 OPS+ and a WAR of 5.6 Now on to the Twins. Ernie De La Trinidad played in the Twins organization until 2021 and reached AA. Gabriel Maciel also played in the Twins organization until 2021 and reached A+ ball. As for Jhoan Duran, he was arguably the most beneficial player for the Minnesota Twins in 2022. Before looking at his stats, it's hard to miss his stuff. His fastball was the fastest in the MLB, averaging 100.8 MPH and topped out at 103.8. His famous "splinker" was also the fastest in the league at 96.4 MPH. On top of that, his 88 MPH curve held opposing batters to just a .120 batting average and has gotten a swing and a miss almost 50% of the time. As you dive into his underlying metrics, it just keeps getting better. His chase rates and K% are elite with 89 strikeouts over 67.2 innings pitched. Duran has also done an incredible job at throwing strikes with just 16 and a 2.1 BB/9. His chase% and whiff% are both 10% above league average. Duran excelled at keeping batter's exit velocity and barrel percentage low, as well as forcing a groundball more than 60 percent of the time. All of this allowed for Duran to have great home run rates, something the Twins struggled with in 2022. As a team, the Twins' bullpen ranked 18th in win probability added at +1.26. Duran alone had a +4.56 WPA, good for second out of all relivers this past year. While it may be hard to quantify, it's no understatement to say that Duran singlehandedly kept the bullpen afloat this past year. In terms of overall value, Duran had a 1.5 Fwar, which Fangraphs valued at 12 million dollars. In comparison, Eduardo Escobar posted a 4.9 Fwar during his time in Arizona. It is important to note that the Twins have Duran through at least the 2027 season and he should be a prime candidate for an extension. The Diamonbacks however, got less than four years with Escobar before trading him to the Brewers. While it is difficult to directly compare Escobar and Duran because of their different positions, the overall value and talent that Jhoan Duran will provide to the Twins seems likely to greatly exceed what Escobar provided to the Twins. Fan morale is at a low, and a part of that is the front office and their lack of spending and big moves. But when they make a move that clearly worked out for them, it is important to recognize and acknowledge it. Because of them, we get to watch Duran pitch for the next five years.
  13. Maeda was acquired in early 2020 in the three team trade that sent Brusdar Graterol to the Dodgers, He had a career year in 2020, posting his lowest ERA and FIP and his highest ERA+ and K/9 which led to a second place finish in the cy young voting. For the first time since Johan Santana, it looked like the Twins had found their ace. In 2021 however, Maeda was not quite the same. His ERA and WHIP jumped significantly and in September he underwent Tommy John surgery, ending his season. There was some belief that Maeda would return late in the 2022 season to some capacity, but the Twins scaled back his recovery process effectively ending that possibility. Given the extra months of recovery, it is expected that Maeda will be available on opening day. At the moment, Maeda slots in as the 3rd or 4th starter in the rotation but that could fluctuate drastically. Both Baseball Reference and FanGraphs project Maeda to finish with 70-80 innings pitched which would be substantially lower than his last full season and most likely has him as a long reliever. W L ERA G GS IP H ER HR BB SO 5 4 4.25 18 15 82.7 76 39 11 29 81 Year Tm Age W L W-L% ERA SV IP H R ER HR BB IBB SO HBP BK WP BF WHIP H9 HR9 BB9 SO9 SO/W Rel 2023 Proj. 35 4 3 .571 4.06 1 71.0 65 35 32 9 22 1 71 4 0 2 295 1.225 8.2 1.1 2.8 9.0 3.23 49% Both websites suggest the Maeda is due for regression even after a disappointing 2021. There are multiple factors contributing to this. The most obvious one is that fact that Maeda won't have pitched in almost 20 months so his overall health and effectiveness have dropped. He is almost 35 years old and coming off of a major arm surgery which certainly explains his lack of innings pitched in the projections. There is still reason to believe that he could be effective. Maeda is relying on his fastball less and less so while the velocity and spin are disappointing, it won't factor in as much. Despite his poor season, his chase rate was elite - in the 89th percentile - while is similar to Julio Urias and even better than guys like Gerrit Cole and Brandon Woodruff. His barrel and whiff percentages were also well above average. A similar case to Maeda's would be Justin Verlander. In 2020, Verlander underwent Tommy John surgery at age 37. He missed the rest of the 2020 season and the entire 2021 season. As a 39 year old, he returned and had arguably the best season of career and won CY Young. While Verlander and Maeda are by no means the same pitcher, it is interesting to see that older pitchers are still able to recover from Tommy John and not let it impact their following season. While I believe that Baseball Reference and FanGraphs are underselling his innings pitched in 2023, I don't expect him to return to his 2020 form. I see him finishing as our 4th or 5th starter with similar numbers to 2021. Regardless of my thoughts, Kenta Maeda is crucial to the team's success in 2023. If the Twins are competing for a playoff spot, having Maeda provides significant depth to a rotation that desperately needs it.
  14. Right now, the general consensus is that the Twins are going to miss the playoffs. Some might go as far as saying that they are a 90-100 loss team. You could point at the two consecutive losing seasons or the loss of Correa, but is that the fully story? Are the Twins really that bad? Lets take a look. Shortstop After missing on Correa (twice), This is the most pressing issue on the Twins. All four of the top free agent shortstops are gone so the Twins will have to make do with in-house options. That lands on Kyle Farmer. Age Tm Lg G PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS OPS+ TB GDP HBP SH SF IBB Pos Awards 31 CIN NL 145 583 526 58 134 25 1 14 78 4 3 33 99 .255 .315 .386 .701 90 203 20 16 2 6 0 65D/H3 in 2022, Farmer had a relatively average season with a slash of .255/.315/.386 for a .701 OPS and a 1.0 war. He does provide defensive value with his ability to play all over the infield. This past year, the Twins were very inconsistent with their infield defense so Kyle Farmer certainly helps to support that. One of the biggest things to get excited about this season is the eventual return of Royce Lewis. Year Age Tm Lg G PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS OPS+ TB GDP HBP SH SF IBB Pos Awards 2022 23 MIN AL 12 41 40 5 12 4 0 2 5 0 0 1 5 .300 .317 .550 .867 145 22 2 0 0 0 0 6/8 Lewis broke into the league in early May to fill in for a injured Correa and he took advantage of his opportunity. While it was short term, Lewis demonstrated his ability to hit for both Average and Power. Similar to Farmer, he has defensive flexibility and can move between the infield and outfield. However, Lewis suffered his second torn ACL so his return isn't immediate or guaranteed. When healthy, his value to the team is immense and will be one of the most fun players to watch for years to come. It may still be way to soon, but Brooks Lee is a name to keep an eye out for. He is the Twin's highest nationally ranked prospect and is an incredible hitter. He progressed quickly through the farm system and ended the season on AA. Starting Rotation Year after year, The Twins have had incomplete and weak rotations and often relied on cheap, old free agents to fill out the back end. This year is different as the Twins have the deepest and most talented rotation in years. As it currently stands: 1. Sonny Gray 2. Tyler Mahle 3. Joe Ryan 4. Kenta Maeda 5. Bailey Ober Depth: Louie Varland, Josh Winder, SImeon Woods-Richardson Sonny Gray was excellent for the Twins with a 125 ERA+ and a 3.40 FIP. The Twins should see similar results from him this year and as of now, remains our ace. Tyler Mahle Is somewhat of an unknown. He only made two complete starts for the Twins before ending his season with a shoulder injury but those two starts were excellent. He has similar stuff to Sonny Gray and is five years younger so it may be possible to see him competing with Gray for the top spot in the Rotation. In his first full year in the MLB, Joe Ryan excelled. He was incredibly reliable, posting the most innings pitched by any starter. He also has the most potential of any of the starting pitchers and will hugely contribute to the team. Kenta Maeda is a complete wild card. He was excellent in the shortened 2020 season and came second in the cy young. He wasn't the same in 2021 and he ended the season with tommy john surgery. It is unclear which version the Twins will get in 2023 but he has the chance to fit into the top of our rotation. The remaining four guys are all interchangeable. They are all young and have good potential but we haven't seen enough of them to truly see where they lie in this rotation. Bullpen This was debatably the worst aspect of the Twins last year and was the cause of way to many late inning collapses. This year however, the Bullpen is already looking significantly stronger. Jhoan Duran was absolutely elite. He had one of, if not the best rookie reliever seasons of all time and he is crucial to the Twins success. Year Age Tm Lg W L W-L% ERA G GS GF CG SHO SV IP H R ER HR BB IBB SO HBP BK WP BF ERA+ FIP WHIP H9 HR9 BB9 SO9 SO/W Awards 2022 24 MIN AL 2 4 .333 1.86 57 0 18 0 0 8 67.2 50 15 14 6 16 3 89 4 0 6 266 208 2.52 0.975 6.7 0.8 2.1 11.8 5.56 Duran was untouchable last year and could easily cement himself as one of the best relievers in all of baseball. The other backend relivers - Jorge Lopez and Griffin Jax - aren't quite as good as Duran but should set up for elite late inning group. Jorge Lopez was lights out for the Orioles but faced some command issues with the Twins. He should get back on track and fit right in as the closer. Another piece to keep an eye out for is Jorge Alcala. He had a solid 2021 season with a .972 WHIP and 9.2 K/9 but missed all of 2022. He has a chance to join Jax, Duran and Lopez in an elite reliever core. As for middle relief, it still looks relatively strong. Caleb Thielbar and Jovani Moran are the two lefties. Thielbar was incredibly reliable and Moran is still young but has one of the best changeups in the league. While Trevor Megill and Emilio Pagan were the weak links last year, they still fill out this bullpen nicely. Each of them have high velocity and great strikeout numbers. Towards the end of the year, Pagan added a new pitch and excelled. He finished the season with five straight scoreless outings. They certainly aren't fan favorites but to have big strikeout guys for middle relief is huge. Youth I already mentioned Ryan, Duran and Lewis but the list goes on and on. Jose Miranda was a everyday, middle of the lineup bat with a slash of .268/.325/.422 and 13 homeruns. In 2023 he will play third base consistently and his defensive should improve. Trevor Larnach and Matt Wallner both played few games but look like they could become starting outfielders next year. Larnach was elite defensively and both of them hit for good power. If healthy, Alex Kirilloff will play a big role in the offense as he was great when he played. The Twins have the arguably the best young core of players in years and they are going to make the largest impact on the team going forward. For any sustained success, the team is going to have to rely on these guys. It's easy to write the 2023 Twins off as a lost cause after last years disappointing finish but I still see reason to believe that next year will greatly improve on last year. People are losing faith on the front office for missing Correa but they are still working to make this team better. The Joey Gallo signing adds defensive flexibility and a big bat with huge upside, but that won't be the last move. Whether it's another small free agent signing or trades, Falvey and Levine know what the Twins need and are hopefully working to address it. I would expect multiple, possibly creative deals prior to opening day to truly fill out the Twin's roster. At the end of the day, The AL central is wide open. The Guardians and White sox haven't taken massive steps forward and are still easily within reach of the Twins. If we avoid being battered by injuries like last year, this team could win 90 games and be right in the playoff mix. All we can do right now is stay optimistic and let it all play out.
  15. I think the main thing is injuries. If we stay healthy, our lineup matches Cleveland and we can compete with them down the stretch.
  16. I like the mention of Joe Ryan. He is one of the best young pitchers we've had in a while and I feel like he could be a big part of our rotation going forward.
  17. To fully sell out before the start of the season would be ridiculous. The AL central is wide open as all three teams have not taken massive steps forward. If the season becomes disappointing maybe then you consider trading Mahle or Gray but Kirilloff and Buxton are not being trading any time soon.
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