talkintwins

Sharing this interview with Twins LHP prospect Brent Headrick, as he spoke about: his preparations for the upcoming season specific ways the Twins are guiding his development as a starting pitcher the key differences between the Twins' minor league system/development compared to other teams attending his first spring training camp what it's like playing with Brooks Lee, Austin Martin, Edouard Julien how he feels as a pitcher about bat flips & wild home run celebrations what he'd change about baseball if he was commish for a day and a lot more youtu.be/BbXhlVRvY9Q

re: Twins/Marlins trade talk Robert Murray (FanSided): "I do fully expect the Marlins to trade one of their starters. They've had discussions with a bunch of different teams around the league. The Minnesota Twins are one of them. The Twins have talked to #Marlins about their pitching surplus. Everything I've gathered is that there's nothing close there. I know there was some speculation on Twitter last night about a certain package there - but no, that's not the case at all." Speculation is fun, for sure. But Murray says there's nothing to this rumor, and he's proven to be one of the most reliable reporters when it comes to trades & signings. Credit: The Baseball Insiders podcast (Robert Murray & Adam Weinrib)

Well-said. "Just try to enjoy it."

This is fairly accurate. In a Sept 20th game vs. Royals, Correa tweaked his surgically-repaired ankle and said it went numb & was tingling. The last time the Twins had a physical done with Correa was March 2022. According to Rosenthal & Hayes, the Twins requested a new physical when the Giants deal fell apart and also wanted some time to look into it, but instead, Boras moved on to the Mets. I did a deep-dive on all of this & Correa's related injuries in my latest video:

The online reaction seems to be that "if only" the Twins had increased their offer to $300M, then Correa would have chosen to return. Last I checked, $315M > $300M, $285M, etc. Some are overlooking that these are guaranteed contracts - the Twins could offer the highest AAV they want, but the highest overall value is all that matters with a "rest of career" contract. Whether he plays all the years or not doesn't matter - he's getting that money. Mets were already $30M ahead of Twins. Cohen wasn't going to be outbid on the player he wanted - least of all by Minnesota. Correa wasn't returning unless Twins offered the most money. Time to accept & move on. It was fun while it lasted. He was the best shortstop arm I've ever seen in person, and for a year, he played for the Twins. Not bad.

The fact that baseball doesn't force owners to meet a required payroll floor suggests the sport simply doesn't care about parity. It's a business first, a sport second. Fairness across the league is something only fans care about. Cohen's doing what an owner is allowed to do, but many choose not to. The Pirates, A's, Reds, etc. barely spend - establishing a minimum floor like the NBA should have happened long ago. That would add more teams to the mix and at least move closer to parity than any system which doesn't require teams to spend above a certain amount. The players are receiving huge contracts because the money exists. Owning a baseball team is apparently more lucrative than some believe. Until MLB's record-level profits & money-flow are made transparent, any talk of a spending cap is a bit premature. There's a lot of money in the sport right now. Address the cheapskates first.

This might be unpopular, but the Twins reportedly weren't in the conversation for signing Correa the 2nd time around. They weren't close the first time ($65M less, best offer was lower than $300M), so really, why would they have been approached with a 2nd chance? From what we know at this moment, Boras reportedly didn't go back to them. Twins were no longer in the running, simple as that. It's unfortunate & Correa would have been great to have back, but Twins still have a solid foundation of youth that we somewhat take for granted and that other teams don't have. In the meantime, we'll find out if Steve Cohen's aggressive spending & retooling pays off. Baseball is more fun when there's a villain to root against.

Correa & the SF Giants visit Minnesota on May 22-24.

It really is a fun trade, as a lot of the names should spend considerable time in the majors going forward. I want the full backstory from all sides. It sure looks like Atlanta had a list of players they were okay with losing, especially if it brought them Murphy. That's such a fantasy baseball approach - a package of whatever's in the cupboard for the best player in the deal. Now Ruiz has to perform under a spotlight this year - no pressure, kid.

It usually takes a few years before it's clear who the winners & losers are in most trades. The same-day, knee-jerk reaction to this trade is a bit much. Contreras is not even a lock to stick at C, so it's entirely possible that Oakland's return ends up being the most favorable by 2 or 3 years from now. Teams appear to not view Contreras the same way some fans do. Who knows. Gotta let it play out. The trade value website is a fun activity. However, IMO too much stock is placed into it being gospel.

Marlins have a few interesting pitchers not named Lopez. Rogers & Luzardo might be options & should be strongly considered. Giants intend to keep Crawford & move him to 3B if they sign Correa. Worse yet, check out how many key free agent shortstops will be available next winter...

Agreed - I have a 2nd version with Gordon in LF... just waiting for Kepler to be moved first. For those who are into meaningless stats without context, Vazquez has hit best at 5th and 9th over his career. Spoke about Gordon being one of my personal favs in my newest video posted earlier this afternoon:

Who's feeling more optimistic this evening? Vazquez brings us one step closer to this becoming a reality...

3/$30M is a fantastic deal for an experienced game-caller who has a solid pop-time to 2B. Proven winner with Red Sox & Astros. Beloved locker room leader - Red Sox players were collectively broken when he was traded to Astros at the last deadline. He's said to be great at helping pitchers, and Twins will have a lot of young pitchers over the next 3 years who need the help. Also, he hits much better without the shift from what I recall. Signing Vazquez is an excellent move for the Twins. Love it. One down. What's next?

Pablo Lopez, 27 next season, is fine. However, he carries the sort of injury baggage the Twins would be wise to avoid. Shoulder injuries have hampered his durability and performance. Why invite more risk when they'd only have two seasons to extract as much value as possible? Arraez's knee issues are likely easier to address than a pitcher's throwing shoulder. Lopez's MLB innings since his debut: 2018: 58.2 (called-up later in year) 2019: 111.1 2020: 57.1 (shortened 60-game season) 2021: 102.2 2022: 180.0 Lopez is a free agent after the 2024 season. Spotrac estimates his 2023 salary to be $6,285,987. He had a great start in 2022... for one month. His low FIP over the season was largely driven by a luck-fuelled April - must be nice to have 94.1% of runners LOB. His ERA in April+May was 1.83. The remaining four months, his ERA was 4.69. Worth a deeper look. Meanwhile, LHP Jesus Luzardo, 25, is a free agent after the 2025 season and will be paid $2.1M in 2023. He has a high ceiling with some risk. He suffered a midseason forearm strain this past year and had rotator cuff problems in 2019 which haven't been a known issue since. FWIW, had Tommy John surgery pre-draft in 2016. LHP Trevor Rogers, 25, battled a midseason back injury and a late-season grade 1 lat strain. Nothing alarming. He is making league minimum in 2023. As I've advocated in a recent video on my channel, Trevor Rogers is a buy-low opportunity for a team like the Twins. Still has high upside, is a power lefty, and his issues so far aren't problematic. Plenty of time to work with him on making some adjustments. He's not currently projected to make the Marlins' rotation and has been passed in the depth chart by Eury Perez. The Marlins have considerable rotation depth with a higher ceiling than Minnesota's depth. Whether it's Arraez or someone else being moved, Trevor Rogers should be a trade target and *might* cost less to acquire than Lopez and his storied FIP.

Correa has only played in 78% of games since his debut due to injuries - most concerning, his back. Whereas Bogaerts has played in 92% of games since debut, and Swanson 90.5%. Correa would be amazing - he's a star, nuff said. Bogaerts is the safest play & would provide the most value on-field, but it feels like he's signing elsewhere. Swanson is a fantastic fallback, even if he strikes out a lot - still a ton to love about him. Reality check - for the Twins, it's either get a top SS now... or pray on prospects becoming the next Correa/Bogaerts/Swanson. There's really not much else coming down the SS pike the next couple winters. Any of the top 4 signing with the Twins is a huge win. And if the Twins can get Swanson + Bassitt for the same cost as signing Correa, even better. If all four sign elsewhere, then hopefully they break old habits and sign Rodon + Andrus... if Rodon is even still available. Take note that no reporters/sources have ruled out the Twins on any of the 3 available SS so far, and we're in the thick of it right now. So the Twins are not just pretending to be in the running - they appear to actually have a shot. Reason for optimism.

Since the winter meetings begin this weekend, I compiled 3 scenarios of free agent hitters the Twins might find themselves considering. All three scenarios cost roughly the same, assuming that an equal amount has been set aside for pitching as well. Scenario #1 has the Twins signing Willson Contreras, Josh Bell, Luke Voit, and Elvis Andrus (who will cover SS at least until Lewis/Lee are ready)... leans more toward RH hitters Scenario #2 - the superstar route - similar to 2022 Scenario #3 features Dansby Swanson as the prime target, with Michael Brantley's 130ish wRC+ and on-base skills providing more offence In scenarios #1 and #2, Jorge Polanco has been dealt elsewhere & Luis Arraez is playing 2B (assuming his offseason conditioning goes as planned). In all 3 scenarios, Max Kepler has been dealt away. (note: I fully anticipate Polanco & Kepler being on the team come Opening Day - this is just a fun exercise to explore a "what if" and examine the potential domino effect of signing certain players) The objective is to consider the impact of the Twins signing certain key free agents, and how some signings might prevent the team from affording other needs. What approach matters to you the most?

Well-said. The Garlick deal was a no-brainer insurance policy. Let someone else pay millions for the risk Haniger & Myers bring. FWIW, Haniger is reportedly seeking an AAV close to what Buxton makes... Meanwhile, Chad Pinder in 2022 vs. LHP: 158 PA - .260/.280/.447 7 HR 23 RBI - 31 yrs old in '23. Not an endorsement. Let the kids play. We've waited this long for them for a reason. Twins can find RH hitters at other positions, if necessary.

Thanks man, much appreciated! Glad you enjoyed the video. Polanco really seems like the low-hanging fruit this winter if anyone is moved, but only if there's a set plan for 2B. As one of the new faces of the team, an extension for the inexpensive Arraez seems more likely than a trade. According to Do-Hyoung Park, he's been working on his conditioning with Nelly Cruz, has already lost 11 pounds, and his knees are doing well. Reason for optimism! Source: https://www.mlb.com/news/former-twins-give-back-to-luis-arraez-jose-miranda

Fingers crossed - agreed, Prielipp could rise quickly if there are no setbacks. Wait & see, hope for the best.

Oddly, Wil Myers often hits better when the shift is in play. His career contains so many "what if" scenarios considering how injuries derailed all of his momentum, Not sure there's much juice left to squeeze out of Myers. Might be more prudent for the Twins to find out what their MLB-ready prospects are capable of contributing in '23.

I'm not sure what the rules on self-promotion are, so I'll just say there's a link in my bio. The Polanco trade returns seem to be the most popular ones so far. Arraez is the one player the Twins *should* consider trading, as his value may never be that much higher than it is right now. That said, it'll be difficult to replace his bat with confidence right now. And the lineup woes from 2022 still need to be addressed - we need Arraez more than we might need Polanco. It's a pivotal offseason, indeed. We're expecting Kepler & Polanco to be the ones moved; the Twins seem more likely to want to extend Arraez rather than trade him. With 2B being a wasteland compared to most other positions, Polanco's trade value in a barren 2B market is going to be healthy - regardless of whether he's currently at his own peak value. Opportunity awaits the Twins...

Mitch Haniger has only had one healthy season in the last 4 years. He missed all of 2020 with a back injury which has been an on-going problem ever since, in addition to knee, wrist, and ankle issues. A lot of missed time throughout his minor league career dating back to 2013. Only 3 healthy seasons over 10 years. He'll turn 32 before the next season begins. Love the profile, but if he couldn't stay on the field through his 20s, I'm not optimistic that his next few seasons will be much different. Haniger should be an automatic hard pass for this team.

Twins badly need a lefty in their all-righty rotation. Rodon might be the most realistic high-level fit for the Twins over the past few offseasons. Consider this: their highest-ranked LHP prospect is Brent Headrick. If not Rodon, then Jose Quintana is possibly the next best lefty available this winter via FA. Stark drop-off after Rodon.

Spoke about this exact scenario in my new video, along with a few other trades for Twins to make. Polanco is a very intriguing offseason target for a handful of teams, including Seattle. The fit is there for Mariners... they have a number of assets the Twins are in need of. If the Twins are open to moving Polanco - and with a wealth of infield prospects close to the majors, the timing makes sense right now - then they should pull the trigger. A deal at the deadline might also be in play but will Polo's value really increase much more by then? Not likely by much. If the team has no plans to keep him past his current deal, I suspect we may find out during the next week or two. A lot of fans have been eyeing Kepler as the first to be moved... I see Polanco being on the hot seat first.