TwinsData

The above graph plots the effectiveness of a pitcher's first start (measured by game score) and their career wins above replacement with Minnesota for the notable Twins pitchers to make their first start since 2000. The size of the point corresponds to career starts in a Twins uniform. The figure only includes pitchers whose Twins career has finished and those who were primarily starters. A few things stand out:
The pitchers with the most impressive first starts are not exactly Twins Hall-of-Famers. Nick Blackburn, Anthony Swarzak, Boof Bonser, and Fernando Romero are the only starters with initial game scores above 60. Jose Berrios, quite memorably, had one of the worst Twins debuts in recent memory. He turned out alright. Where would the 2022 debutants fit in the list of game scores?
Josh Winder: 76 ... six shutout innings with a single walk against the Rays, topping the list Louie Varland: 60 ... a memorable debut at Yankee Stadium and one of the better debuts in the last 20 years Simeon Woods Richardson: 56 ... a better first start than Johan Santana, he's well on his way! Cole Sands: 36 ... one of the worst first starts in recent years, allowing four runs in four innings in Detroit The moral of the story? Don't get too high or too low on a pitcher's career after one start. Maybe even after one year. Randomness abounds!
 

The above graph plots the effectiveness of a pitcher's first start (measured by game score) and their career wins above replacement with Minnesota for the notable Twins pitchers to make their first start since 2000. The size of the point corresponds to career starts in a Twins uniform. The figure only includes pitchers whose Twins career has finished and those who were primarily starters. A few things stand out:
The pitchers with the most impressive first starts are not exactly Twins Hall-of-Famers. Nick Blackburn, Anthony Swarzak, Boof Bonser, and Fernando Romero are the only starters with initial game scores above 60. Jose Berrios, quite memorably, had one of the worst Twins debuts in recent memory. He turned out alright. Where would the 2022 debutants fit in the list of game scores?
Josh Winder: 76 ... six shutout innings with a single walk against the Rays, topping the list Louie Varland: 60 ... a memorable debut at Yankee Stadium and one of the better debuts in the last 20 years Simeon Woods Richardson: 56 ... a better first start than Johan Santana, he's well on his way! Cole Sands: 36 ... one of the worst first starts in recent years, allowing four runs in four innings in Detroit The moral of the story? Don't get too high or too low on a pitcher's career after one start. Maybe even after one year. Randomness abounds!
 

The above graph plots the effectiveness of a pitcher's first start (measured by game score) and their career wins above replacement with Minnesota for the notable Twins pitchers to make their first start since 2000. The size of the point corresponds to career starts in a Twins uniform. The figure only includes pitchers whose Twins career has finished and those who were primarily starters. A few things stand out:
The pitchers with the most impressive first starts are not exactly Twins Hall-of-Famers. Nick Blackburn, Anthony Swarzak, Boof Bonser, and Fernando Romero are the only starters with initial game scores above 60. Jose Berrios, quite memorably, had one of the worst Twins debuts in recent memory. He turned out alright. Where would the 2022 debutants fit in the list of game scores?
Josh Winder: 76 ... six shutout innings with a single walk against the Rays, topping the list Louie Varland: 60 ... a memorable debut at Yankee Stadium and one of the better debuts in the last 20 years Simeon Woods Richardson: 56 ... a better first start than Johan Santana, he's well on his way! Cole Sands: 36 ... one of the worst first starts in recent years, allowing four runs in four innings in Detroit The moral of the story? Don't get too high or too low on a pitcher's career after one start. Maybe even after one year. Randomness abounds!
 

The above graph plots the effectiveness of a pitcher's first start (measured by game score) and their career wins above replacement with Minnesota for the notable Twins pitchers to make their first start since 2000. The size of the point corresponds to career starts in a Twins uniform. The figure only includes pitchers whose Twins career has finished and those who were primarily starters. A few things stand out:
The pitchers with the most impressive first starts are not exactly Twins Hall-of-Famers. Nick Blackburn, Anthony Swarzak, Boof Bonser, and Fernando Romero are the only starters with initial game scores above 60. Jose Berrios, quite memorably, had one of the worst Twins debuts in recent memory. He turned out alright. Where would the 2022 debutants fit in the list of game scores?
Josh Winder: 76 ... six shutout innings with a single walk against the Rays, topping the list Louie Varland: 60 ... a memorable debut at Yankee Stadium and one of the better debuts in the last 20 years Simeon Woods Richardson: 56 ... a better first start than Johan Santana, he's well on his way! Cole Sands: 36 ... one of the worst first starts in recent years, allowing four runs in four innings in Detroit The moral of the story? Don't get too high or too low on a pitcher's career after one start. Maybe even after one year. Randomness abounds!
 

The above graph plots the results for every major league team against the five opponents currently on pace for more than 95 wins: Yankees, Astros, Dodgers, Braves, and Mets. The x-axis is win percentage in those games and the y-axis is run difference per game. A few notes:
The Twins were far and away the worst team in the league against this set of teams with a 0.11 win percentage, going 2-16. Those losses were well-earned, with an average run difference of -3.67. In-division foes Detroit, Cleveland, Kansas City, and the White Sox will have played an almost identical schedule to the Twins, so comparisons between them are particularly appropriate. Even the lowly Tigers and gutted Royals have outperformed the Twins against the class of the league. The Twins' current deficit in the division can be attributed to their performance in these games. By contrast to the Twins' 2-16, the Guardians are a respectable 6-10 and the White Sox are 7-10. A similar performance from the hometown nine would have the Twins comfortably in first place in the AL Central. Luckily, none of the power five are divisional foes, so the Twins will still have a chance to squeak into the playoffs. We are all hoping for another shot at the Yankees or Astros in October. Right?

The above graph plots the results for every major league team against the five opponents currently on pace for more than 95 wins: Yankees, Astros, Dodgers, Braves, and Mets. The x-axis is win percentage in those games and the y-axis is run difference per game. A few notes:
The Twins were far and away the worst team in the league against this set of teams with a 0.11 win percentage, going 2-16. Those losses were well-earned, with an average run difference of -3.67. In-division foes Detroit, Cleveland, Kansas City, and the White Sox will have played an almost identical schedule to the Twins, so comparisons between them are particularly appropriate. Even the lowly Tigers and gutted Royals have outperformed the Twins against the class of the league. The Twins' current deficit in the division can be attributed to their performance in these games. By contrast to the Twins' 2-16, the Guardians are a respectable 6-10 and the White Sox are 7-10. A similar performance from the hometown nine would have the Twins comfortably in first place in the AL Central. Luckily, none of the power five are divisional foes, so the Twins will still have a chance to squeak into the playoffs. We are all hoping for another shot at the Yankees or Astros in October. Right?

The above graph plots the results for every major league team against the five opponents currently on pace for more than 95 wins: Yankees, Astros, Dodgers, Braves, and Mets. The x-axis is win percentage in those games and the y-axis is run difference per game. A few notes:
The Twins were far and away the worst team in the league against this set of teams with a 0.11 win percentage, going 2-16. Those losses were well-earned, with an average run difference of -3.67. In-division foes Detroit, Cleveland, Kansas City, and the White Sox will have played an almost identical schedule to the Twins, so comparisons between them are particularly appropriate. Even the lowly Tigers and gutted Royals have outperformed the Twins against the class of the league. The Twins' current deficit in the division can be attributed to their performance in these games. By contrast to the Twins' 2-16, the Guardians are a respectable 6-10 and the White Sox are 7-10. A similar performance from the hometown nine would have the Twins comfortably in first place in the AL Central. Luckily, none of the power five are divisional foes, so the Twins will still have a chance to squeak into the playoffs. We are all hoping for another shot at the Yankees or Astros in October. Right?

The above graph plots the results for every major league team against the five opponents currently on pace for more than 95 wins: Yankees, Astros, Dodgers, Braves, and Mets. The x-axis is win percentage in those games and the y-axis is run difference per game. A few notes:
The Twins were far and away the worst team in the league against this set of teams with a 0.11 win percentage, going 2-16. Those losses were well-earned, with an average run difference of -3.67. In-division foes Detroit, Cleveland, Kansas City, and the White Sox will have played an almost identical schedule to the Twins, so comparisons between them are particularly appropriate. Even the lowly Tigers and gutted Royals have outperformed the Twins against the class of the league. The Twins' current deficit in the division can be attributed to their performance in these games. By contrast to the Twins' 2-16, the Guardians are a respectable 6-10 and the White Sox are 7-10. A similar performance from the hometown nine would have the Twins comfortably in first place in the AL Central. Luckily, none of the power five are divisional foes, so the Twins will still have a chance to squeak into the playoffs. We are all hoping for another shot at the Yankees or Astros in October. Right?

The above graph plots the results for every major league team against the five opponents currently on pace for more than 95 wins: Yankees, Astros, Dodgers, Braves, and Mets. The x-axis is win percentage in those games and the y-axis is run difference per game. A few notes:
The Twins were far and away the worst team in the league against this set of teams with a 0.11 win percentage, going 2-16. Those losses were well-earned, with an average run difference of -3.67. In-division foes Detroit, Cleveland, Kansas City, and the White Sox will have played an almost identical schedule to the Twins, so comparisons between them are particularly appropriate. Even the lowly Tigers and gutted Royals have outperformed the Twins against the class of the league. The Twins' current deficit in the division can be attributed to their performance in these games. By contrast to the Twins' 2-16, the Guardians are a respectable 6-10 and the White Sox are 7-10. A similar performance from the hometown nine would have the Twins comfortably in first place in the AL Central. Luckily, none of the power five are divisional foes, so the Twins will still have a chance to squeak into the playoffs. We are all hoping for another shot at the Yankees or Astros in October. Right?

The above graph plots the results for every major league team against the five opponents currently on pace for more than 95 wins: Yankees, Astros, Dodgers, Braves, and Mets. The x-axis is win percentage in those games and the y-axis is run difference per game. A few notes:
The Twins were far and away the worst team in the league against this set of teams with a 0.11 win percentage, going 2-16. Those losses were well-earned, with an average run difference of -3.67. In-division foes Detroit, Cleveland, Kansas City, and the White Sox will have played an almost identical schedule to the Twins, so comparisons between them are particularly appropriate. Even the lowly Tigers and gutted Royals have outperformed the Twins against the class of the league. The Twins' current deficit in the division can be attributed to their performance in these games. By contrast to the Twins' 2-16, the Guardians are a respectable 6-10 and the White Sox are 7-10. A similar performance from the hometown nine would have the Twins comfortably in first place in the AL Central. Luckily, none of the power five are divisional foes, so the Twins will still have a chance to squeak into the playoffs. We are all hoping for another shot at the Yankees or Astros in October. Right?

The above graph plots the results for every major league team against the five opponents currently on pace for more than 95 wins: Yankees, Astros, Dodgers, Braves, and Mets. The x-axis is win percentage in those games and the y-axis is run difference per game. A few notes:
The Twins were far and away the worst team in the league against this set of teams with a 0.11 win percentage, going 2-16. Those losses were well-earned, with an average run difference of -3.67. In-division foes Detroit, Cleveland, Kansas City, and the White Sox will have played an almost identical schedule to the Twins, so comparisons between them are particularly appropriate. Even the lowly Tigers and gutted Royals have outperformed the Twins against the class of the league. The Twins' current deficit in the division can be attributed to their performance in these games. By contrast to the Twins' 2-16, the Guardians are a respectable 6-10 and the White Sox are 7-10. A similar performance from the hometown nine would have the Twins comfortably in first place in the AL Central. Luckily, none of the power five are divisional foes, so the Twins will still have a chance to squeak into the playoffs. We are all hoping for another shot at the Yankees or Astros in October. Right?

The above graph plots the results for every major league team against the five opponents currently on pace for more than 95 wins: Yankees, Astros, Dodgers, Braves, and Mets. The x-axis is win percentage in those games and the y-axis is run difference per game. A few notes:
The Twins were far and away the worst team in the league against this set of teams with a 0.11 win percentage, going 2-16. Those losses were well-earned, with an average run difference of -3.67. In-division foes Detroit, Cleveland, Kansas City, and the White Sox will have played an almost identical schedule to the Twins, so comparisons between them are particularly appropriate. Even the lowly Tigers and gutted Royals have outperformed the Twins against the class of the league. The Twins' current deficit in the division can be attributed to their performance in these games. By contrast to the Twins' 2-16, the Guardians are a respectable 6-10 and the White Sox are 7-10. A similar performance from the hometown nine would have the Twins comfortably in first place in the AL Central. Luckily, none of the power five are divisional foes, so the Twins will still have a chance to squeak into the playoffs. We are all hoping for another shot at the Yankees or Astros in October. Right?

The above graph plots the results for every major league team against the five opponents currently on pace for more than 95 wins: Yankees, Astros, Dodgers, Braves, and Mets. The x-axis is win percentage in those games and the y-axis is run difference per game. A few notes:
The Twins were far and away the worst team in the league against this set of teams with a 0.11 win percentage, going 2-16. Those losses were well-earned, with an average run difference of -3.67. In-division foes Detroit, Cleveland, Kansas City, and the White Sox will have played an almost identical schedule to the Twins, so comparisons between them are particularly appropriate. Even the lowly Tigers and gutted Royals have outperformed the Twins against the class of the league. The Twins' current deficit in the division can be attributed to their performance in these games. By contrast to the Twins' 2-16, the Guardians are a respectable 6-10 and the White Sox are 7-10. A similar performance from the hometown nine would have the Twins comfortably in first place in the AL Central. Luckily, none of the power five are divisional foes, so the Twins will still have a chance to squeak into the playoffs. We are all hoping for another shot at the Yankees or Astros in October. Right?

The above graph plots the results for every major league team against the five opponents currently on pace for more than 95 wins: Yankees, Astros, Dodgers, Braves, and Mets. The x-axis is win percentage in those games and the y-axis is run difference per game. A few notes:
The Twins were far and away the worst team in the league against this set of teams with a 0.11 win percentage, going 2-16. Those losses were well-earned, with an average run difference of -3.67. In-division foes Detroit, Cleveland, Kansas City, and the White Sox will have played an almost identical schedule to the Twins, so comparisons between them are particularly appropriate. Even the lowly Tigers and gutted Royals have outperformed the Twins against the class of the league. The Twins' current deficit in the division can be attributed to their performance in these games. By contrast to the Twins' 2-16, the Guardians are a respectable 6-10 and the White Sox are 7-10. A similar performance from the hometown nine would have the Twins comfortably in first place in the AL Central. Luckily, none of the power five are divisional foes, so the Twins will still have a chance to squeak into the playoffs. We are all hoping for another shot at the Yankees or Astros in October. Right?

The above graph shows the percent of Gordon's hitting outcomes over the previous 100 plate appearances as his career as progressed. The point where the data cross from his 2021 season to his 2022 season is marked with a gray vertical line. Here are the key takeaways:
Throughout his rookie season, Nick Gordon hit the ball on the ground. A lot. More than 50 percent of balls in play were ground balls and, for most of the season, less than 20 percent of balls were fly balls. The data show a small jump in fly balls and drop in ground balls toward the end of 2021, however. That was a sign of things to come. Gordon in 2022 is an entirely different hitter. He went through a stretch of ground-ball-heavy hitting in the early part of the season, but his groundball rate has plummeted. In his last 100 plate appearances, he's hit only 37 percent ground balls. His flyball rate is roughly 3 times higher in 2022 than 2021. The steady growth in this flyball rate is evident. Are fly balls good? Usually! It's difficult to get extra-base hits (and especially home runs, it turns out) when the ball is on the ground. An increase in fly balls is the reason his slugging percentage has jumped from 0.355 in 2021 to 0.431 in 2022. Given his slender frame, Nick Gordon looks like a slap-hitting utility man. And in 2021, that's mostly what he was. But through a drastic change in approach at the plate, Nick Gordon has transformed into a well-above-average hitter with a 116 OPS+. Maybe that lofty prospect status is starting to shine through.
 

The above graph shows the percent of Gordon's hitting outcomes over the previous 100 plate appearances as his career as progressed. The point where the data cross from his 2021 season to his 2022 season is marked with a gray vertical line. Here are the key takeaways:
Throughout his rookie season, Nick Gordon hit the ball on the ground. A lot. More than 50 percent of balls in play were ground balls and, for most of the season, less than 20 percent of balls were fly balls. The data show a small jump in fly balls and drop in ground balls toward the end of 2021, however. That was a sign of things to come. Gordon in 2022 is an entirely different hitter. He went through a stretch of ground-ball-heavy hitting in the early part of the season, but his groundball rate has plummeted. In his last 100 plate appearances, he's hit only 37 percent ground balls. His flyball rate is roughly 3 times higher in 2022 than 2021. The steady growth in this flyball rate is evident. Are fly balls good? Usually! It's difficult to get extra-base hits (and especially home runs, it turns out) when the ball is on the ground. An increase in fly balls is the reason his slugging percentage has jumped from 0.355 in 2021 to 0.431 in 2022. Given his slender frame, Nick Gordon looks like a slap-hitting utility man. And in 2021, that's mostly what he was. But through a drastic change in approach at the plate, Nick Gordon has transformed into a well-above-average hitter with a 116 OPS+. Maybe that lofty prospect status is starting to shine through.
 

The above graph shows the percent of Gordon's hitting outcomes over the previous 100 plate appearances as his career as progressed. The point where the data cross from his 2021 season to his 2022 season is marked with a gray vertical line. Here are the key takeaways:
Throughout his rookie season, Nick Gordon hit the ball on the ground. A lot. More than 50 percent of balls in play were ground balls and, for most of the season, less than 20 percent of balls were fly balls. The data show a small jump in fly balls and drop in ground balls toward the end of 2021, however. That was a sign of things to come. Gordon in 2022 is an entirely different hitter. He went through a stretch of ground-ball-heavy hitting in the early part of the season, but his groundball rate has plummeted. In his last 100 plate appearances, he's hit only 37 percent ground balls. His flyball rate is roughly 3 times higher in 2022 than 2021. The steady growth in this flyball rate is evident. Are fly balls good? Usually! It's difficult to get extra-base hits (and especially home runs, it turns out) when the ball is on the ground. An increase in fly balls is the reason his slugging percentage has jumped from 0.355 in 2021 to 0.431 in 2022. Given his slender frame, Nick Gordon looks like a slap-hitting utility man. And in 2021, that's mostly what he was. But through a drastic change in approach at the plate, Nick Gordon has transformed into a well-above-average hitter with a 116 OPS+. Maybe that lofty prospect status is starting to shine through.
 

The above graph shows the percent of Gordon's hitting outcomes over the previous 100 plate appearances as his career as progressed. The point where the data cross from his 2021 season to his 2022 season is marked with a gray vertical line. Here are the key takeaways:
Throughout his rookie season, Nick Gordon hit the ball on the ground. A lot. More than 50 percent of balls in play were ground balls and, for most of the season, less than 20 percent of balls were fly balls. The data show a small jump in fly balls and drop in ground balls toward the end of 2021, however. That was a sign of things to come. Gordon in 2022 is an entirely different hitter. He went through a stretch of ground-ball-heavy hitting in the early part of the season, but his groundball rate has plummeted. In his last 100 plate appearances, he's hit only 37 percent ground balls. His flyball rate is roughly 3 times higher in 2022 than 2021. The steady growth in this flyball rate is evident. Are fly balls good? Usually! It's difficult to get extra-base hits (and especially home runs, it turns out) when the ball is on the ground. An increase in fly balls is the reason his slugging percentage has jumped from 0.355 in 2021 to 0.431 in 2022. Given his slender frame, Nick Gordon looks like a slap-hitting utility man. And in 2021, that's mostly what he was. But through a drastic change in approach at the plate, Nick Gordon has transformed into a well-above-average hitter with a 116 OPS+. Maybe that lofty prospect status is starting to shine through.
 

The above graph shows the percent of Gordon's hitting outcomes over the previous 100 plate appearances as his career as progressed. The point where the data cross from his 2021 season to his 2022 season is marked with a gray vertical line. Here are the key takeaways:
Throughout his rookie season, Nick Gordon hit the ball on the ground. A lot. More than 50 percent of balls in play were ground balls and, for most of the season, less than 20 percent of balls were fly balls. The data show a small jump in fly balls and drop in ground balls toward the end of 2021, however. That was a sign of things to come. Gordon in 2022 is an entirely different hitter. He went through a stretch of ground-ball-heavy hitting in the early part of the season, but his groundball rate has plummeted. In his last 100 plate appearances, he's hit only 37 percent ground balls. His flyball rate is roughly 3 times higher in 2022 than 2021. The steady growth in this flyball rate is evident. Are fly balls good? Usually! It's difficult to get extra-base hits (and especially home runs, it turns out) when the ball is on the ground. An increase in fly balls is the reason his slugging percentage has jumped from 0.355 in 2021 to 0.431 in 2022. Given his slender frame, Nick Gordon looks like a slap-hitting utility man. And in 2021, that's mostly what he was. But through a drastic change in approach at the plate, Nick Gordon has transformed into a well-above-average hitter with a 116 OPS+. Maybe that lofty prospect status is starting to shine through.
 

The above graph plots the whiff rate (fraction of swings that are swings-and-misses) with average exit velocity for all MLB hitters in the top 10 percentile for whiff rate. A few takeaways:
Among hitters with sufficient plate appearances, Arraez leads the league in whiff rate. Less than 7 percent of his swings result in misses. Only four hitters are even below 10 percent. (note that the plate appearance cutoff is not really driving this result ... the only hitters with lower whiff rates than Arraez have seen less than 40 pitches this season). Arraez's exit velocity is uniquely high for hitters with such low whiff rates. You have to get all the way to Michael Brantley to find a hitter who hits the ball harder than Arraez, and Brantley whiffs almost twice as often to accomplish that. Does exit velocity even matter? Of course. The league leaders in exit velocity are Yordan Alvarez, Aaron Judge, and Giancarlo Stanton. A real who's who. And the hitters who most closely resemble Arraez in whiff rate while sacrificing exit velocity (Steven Kwan, Luis Guillorme, and Nick Madrigal) own OPS values of 0.771, 0.712, and 0.581 compared to 0.841 for Arraez. No other hitter in the big leagues combines plate control and exit velocity like Arraez does. Imagine a Brantley or DJ LeMahieu who whiffed at pitches half as often without losing any of the power. And was only 25 years old. That's Arraez. Pretty good!
 

The above graph plots the whiff rate (fraction of swings that are swings-and-misses) with average exit velocity for all MLB hitters in the top 10 percentile for whiff rate. A few takeaways:
Among hitters with sufficient plate appearances, Arraez leads the league in whiff rate. Less than 7 percent of his swings result in misses. Only four hitters are even below 10 percent. (note that the plate appearance cutoff is not really driving this result ... the only hitters with lower whiff rates than Arraez have seen less than 40 pitches this season). Arraez's exit velocity is uniquely high for hitters with such low whiff rates. You have to get all the way to Michael Brantley to find a hitter who hits the ball harder than Arraez, and Brantley whiffs almost twice as often to accomplish that. Does exit velocity even matter? Of course. The league leaders in exit velocity are Yordan Alvarez, Aaron Judge, and Giancarlo Stanton. A real who's who. And the hitters who most closely resemble Arraez in whiff rate while sacrificing exit velocity (Steven Kwan, Luis Guillorme, and Nick Madrigal) own OPS values of 0.771, 0.712, and 0.581 compared to 0.841 for Arraez. No other hitter in the big leagues combines plate control and exit velocity like Arraez does. Imagine a Brantley or DJ LeMahieu who whiffed at pitches half as often without losing any of the power. And was only 25 years old. That's Arraez. Pretty good!
 

The above graph plots the whiff rate (fraction of swings that are swings-and-misses) with average exit velocity for all MLB hitters in the top 10 percentile for whiff rate. A few takeaways:
Among hitters with sufficient plate appearances, Arraez leads the league in whiff rate. Less than 7 percent of his swings result in misses. Only four hitters are even below 10 percent. (note that the plate appearance cutoff is not really driving this result ... the only hitters with lower whiff rates than Arraez have seen less than 40 pitches this season). Arraez's exit velocity is uniquely high for hitters with such low whiff rates. You have to get all the way to Michael Brantley to find a hitter who hits the ball harder than Arraez, and Brantley whiffs almost twice as often to accomplish that. Does exit velocity even matter? Of course. The league leaders in exit velocity are Yordan Alvarez, Aaron Judge, and Giancarlo Stanton. A real who's who. And the hitters who most closely resemble Arraez in whiff rate while sacrificing exit velocity (Steven Kwan, Luis Guillorme, and Nick Madrigal) own OPS values of 0.771, 0.712, and 0.581 compared to 0.841 for Arraez. No other hitter in the big leagues combines plate control and exit velocity like Arraez does. Imagine a Brantley or DJ LeMahieu who whiffed at pitches half as often without losing any of the power. And was only 25 years old. That's Arraez. Pretty good!
 

The above graph plots the whiff rate (fraction of swings that are swings-and-misses) with average exit velocity for all MLB hitters in the top 10 percentile for whiff rate. A few takeaways:
Among hitters with sufficient plate appearances, Arraez leads the league in whiff rate. Less than 7 percent of his swings result in misses. Only four hitters are even below 10 percent. (note that the plate appearance cutoff is not really driving this result ... the only hitters with lower whiff rates than Arraez have seen less than 40 pitches this season). Arraez's exit velocity is uniquely high for hitters with such low whiff rates. You have to get all the way to Michael Brantley to find a hitter who hits the ball harder than Arraez, and Brantley whiffs almost twice as often to accomplish that. Does exit velocity even matter? Of course. The league leaders in exit velocity are Yordan Alvarez, Aaron Judge, and Giancarlo Stanton. A real who's who. And the hitters who most closely resemble Arraez in whiff rate while sacrificing exit velocity (Steven Kwan, Luis Guillorme, and Nick Madrigal) own OPS values of 0.771, 0.712, and 0.581 compared to 0.841 for Arraez. No other hitter in the big leagues combines plate control and exit velocity like Arraez does. Imagine a Brantley or DJ LeMahieu who whiffed at pitches half as often without losing any of the power. And was only 25 years old. That's Arraez. Pretty good!
 

The above graph plots the whiff rate (fraction of swings that are swings-and-misses) with average exit velocity for all MLB hitters in the top 10 percentile for whiff rate. A few takeaways:
Among hitters with sufficient plate appearances, Arraez leads the league in whiff rate. Less than 7 percent of his swings result in misses. Only four hitters are even below 10 percent. (note that the plate appearance cutoff is not really driving this result ... the only hitters with lower whiff rates than Arraez have seen less than 40 pitches this season). Arraez's exit velocity is uniquely high for hitters with such low whiff rates. You have to get all the way to Michael Brantley to find a hitter who hits the ball harder than Arraez, and Brantley whiffs almost twice as often to accomplish that. Does exit velocity even matter? Of course. The league leaders in exit velocity are Yordan Alvarez, Aaron Judge, and Giancarlo Stanton. A real who's who. And the hitters who most closely resemble Arraez in whiff rate while sacrificing exit velocity (Steven Kwan, Luis Guillorme, and Nick Madrigal) own OPS values of 0.771, 0.712, and 0.581 compared to 0.841 for Arraez. No other hitter in the big leagues combines plate control and exit velocity like Arraez does. Imagine a Brantley or DJ LeMahieu who whiffed at pitches half as often without losing any of the power. And was only 25 years old. That's Arraez. Pretty good!
 

The above graph plots the whiff rate (fraction of swings that are swings-and-misses) with average exit velocity for all MLB hitters in the top 10 percentile for whiff rate. A few takeaways:
Among hitters with sufficient plate appearances, Arraez leads the league in whiff rate. Less than 7 percent of his swings result in misses. Only four hitters are even below 10 percent. (note that the plate appearance cutoff is not really driving this result ... the only hitters with lower whiff rates than Arraez have seen less than 40 pitches this season). Arraez's exit velocity is uniquely high for hitters with such low whiff rates. You have to get all the way to Michael Brantley to find a hitter who hits the ball harder than Arraez, and Brantley whiffs almost twice as often to accomplish that. Does exit velocity even matter? Of course. The league leaders in exit velocity are Yordan Alvarez, Aaron Judge, and Giancarlo Stanton. A real who's who. And the hitters who most closely resemble Arraez in whiff rate while sacrificing exit velocity (Steven Kwan, Luis Guillorme, and Nick Madrigal) own OPS values of 0.771, 0.712, and 0.581 compared to 0.841 for Arraez. No other hitter in the big leagues combines plate control and exit velocity like Arraez does. Imagine a Brantley or DJ LeMahieu who whiffed at pitches half as often without losing any of the power. And was only 25 years old. That's Arraez. Pretty good!