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Adam Friedman

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  1. Adam Friedman
    For months, there has been speculation that the Twins may trade Luis Arraez to bolster their rotation. The Twins need at least one controllable starter as they will lose three starters to free agency next season and could definitely use rotation help in 2023.
    There are some baseball reasons to trade Arraez, as the Twins have a surplus of left-handed hitters who play corner positions in the infield and outfield. Bringing back Correa makes the infield even more crowded, and the looming additions of Brooks Lee, Edouard Julien, and Royce Lewis make trading Arraez very reasonable on paper. 
    However, if the Twins trade Luis Arraez, the price has to be right. Beyond his fantastic hitting and solid defense at first, Arraez means so much to the fanbase and clubhouse. If the Twins pull the trigger on an Arraez trade, it must bring back a true frontline starter. Otherwise, you're not getting nearly enough for such a special player and person. 
    Arraez the Guy
    Luis Arraez is fun. Fans love him, and his teammates seem to as well. He plays the game with vigor and joy, and his at bats are appointment-viewing. 
    You could see his teammate's support for him when he was named an all-star, as they all celebrated with him and were thrilled to enjoy his moment with him. Like Carlos Correa and Byron Buxton, he is at the heart and soul of this team. 
    We’ve seen the front office emphasize character more since their failed signings of Lance Lynn and Josh Donaldson. Trading Arraez would be a costly departure from that emphasis. 
    Arraez, while fun and joyful, is also the consummate professional who, in any interview, will emphasize that, while he enjoys his individual accolades, his top priority is helping the team win. 
    The Twins' sparkplug isn't all talk, either. Arraez has shown a terrific work ethic during his time with the Twins. In fact, as I write this, he is in the Dominican Republic working on his craft with Nelson Cruz, which you can occasionally watch on Cruz’s Instagram. This work ethic has been vital in establishing himself as a premier hitter in the league after being overlooked as a prospect. 
    This work ethic and baseball savvy enabled him to find a comfortable home at first base in 2022. Despite being small in stature for a first baseman, he was well above average there in 2022 by Defensive Runs Saved. That is extremely impressive because he had never played first base in the majors before that. His success at first base defensively is a testament to his willingness to do what he needs to do to help the Twins win. 
    Arraez's character is exceptional, and the Twins will miss it if they trade him. 
    Arraez the Ballplayer
    Beyond the person, Luis Arraez, the player, is awesome. From his aforementioned first base defense to his batting title, he was hugely productive for the Twins in 2022. 
    Arraez fulfilled his dream of winning a batting title and played in his first career All Star Game. We don’t always put that much value into those accomplishments alone in 2023, but advanced metrics confirm that he had a great season. 
    The fan-favorite accumulated 3.2 fWAR and a wRC+ of 131, which means he was a 31% above league-average hitter. These topline numbers underscore a terrific player that any team would be lucky to have. Not only that, Fangraphs' Steamer projects him to just about repeat those numbers, projecting a 3.1 fWAR and 126 wRC+ 2023 season.
    Digging deeper, Arraez tailed off in the second half of 2022 with a wRC+ of 106. His hamstring ailments, which could be an issue moving forward, held him back. On the flip side, his first-half performance, where he put up a 150 wRC+, indicates that a healthy Arraez can be an elite hitter.
    Further, Arraez is your man with runners in scoring position. Arraez hit an unbelievable .366 with RISP in 2022. Success with RISP isn't usually indicative of future performance in these spots, but Arraez's success makes sense, given his approach.
    To be clear, Arraez is not a perfect player. He has struggled to stay healthy, can only really play first base, and is a league-average hitter against lefties. 
    These limitations are legitimate issues with Arraez, but his distinct style is helpful on a team that values slugging as much as the Twins. Beyond just his unusual style for the modern game, Arraez has been highly productive by any metric and should be coveted as a player. 
    Arraez's Futrue with the Twins
    Like everybody in Major League Baseball, everybody has a price that can be paid to trade for their services. In Arraez’s case, that price should be extremely high, and they should be asking for more than Pablo López, who the Twins reportedly have a strong interest in acquiring. 
    If they are adamant about trading Arraez for a starting pitcher, they should bundle Arraez and a couple of good prospects to get a true frontline starter. It’s hard to predict trades, but some guys who could be available if they went that route could be Brandon Woodruff, Zac Gallen, or Nestor Cortes. 
    We will see if any pitchers of that caliber become available before spring training, and if they do, the Twins would be sensible to trade Arraez for a true frontline starter. They cannot trade him for anything less. Before pulling the trigger on any Arraez trade, the front office must take stock of what he means to the fanbase and clubhouse, on and off the field.  
     
  2. Adam Friedman

    4 Breakout Candidates for the Twins in 2023

    By Adam Friedman,


    Roster Construction
    For the Twins to get back into the playoffs in 2023, they will need a host of elements to go well. Not only will the Twins require significantly better health in 2023 — they will also need some players to make leaps in the new year. Whether it’s younger established players or prospects, the Twins need big improvements from some young players to be a successful team. I’ve put together a list of players I think can take those steps to be impact players in 2023.
    Joe Ryan
    Since the Twins acquired Joe Ryan in exchange for Nelson Cruz at the 2021 trade deadline, he has impressed, and at times, dominated. In 32 starts, he has pitched 173.2 innings with an ERA of 3.63 and a FIP of 3.90. He has had a 25.7% strikeout rate and a 7.1% walk rate. These are all very good numbers for a guy coming off of his rookie year, and he would slot into just about any rotation in baseball. Ryan isn’t a typical breakout candidate due to his early success, but I believe at 26 years old, he has the ability to develop into more of a frontline starter and break out as a true star.  
    In 2022, Ryan was much worse after a tough bout with Covid-19. Per Fangraphs, in starts before his long absence due to the virus, Ryan had a 2.25 ERA and a 3.25 FIP, but in starts after he came back, he had a 4.08 ERA and 4.30 FIP. Essentially, before his 3-week Covid absence, he was the frontline starter the Twins needed him to be, and after, he was a back-end of the rotation starter. Hopefully, once fully recovered in 2023, we can see Ryan lead the rotation and be a frontline starter.  
    Beyond his mediocre numbers after his Covid-19 absence, Ryan’s performance against right-handed hitters in 2022 surprised me. I expected him to be a typical pitcher who performs better against same-sided batters. In the minors, Ryan had typical splits, where he was better against righties than lefties, but that was not the case in 2022. Against right-handed batters in 2022, Ryan threw fewer fastballs and more sliders. But his fastball was one of the best pitches in baseball in 2022 based on Baseball Savant’s run value metric, while his slider was well below average. For Ryan to become a frontline starter, he will need to improve his performance against right-handed batters, by either improving his slider or throwing fewer sliders against right-handed batters. If either of those strategies is effective and he can return to top physical shape, Ryan can be the Twins best starting pitcher (as the roster is currently constructed) and possibly become the frontline starter the Twins need in 2023.
    Jovani Moran
    Almost every number available shows that Jovani Moran is a really good relief pitcher who is ready to be an impact reliever for the Twins from Opening Day forward. From his 2.21 ERA and 1.78 FIP in 2022 for the Twins in 40.2 innings, to his 11.95 K/9, Twins fans should be excited for him to join the fold more in 2023. While his numbers holistically are awesome, he does walk a ton of batters. However, he limits home runs and strikes out enough hitters that the walks have rarely haunted him at any level, and his overall numbers should continue to be strong in 2023.
    While Moran has been extremely stingy against both righties and lefties, as a 2-pitch pitcher who relies a ton on nasty changeup, he has reverse splits, meaning he is better against right-handed batters than lefties. Because of this, he would benefit if the Twins add an additional left-handed reliever, so if Caleb Thielbar is unavailable, he doesn’t have to be the guy to just come in against lefties. Instead, he should be used in other high leverage situations, whether it’s an 8th inning in a 1- run game, or if there are guys on second and third and one out. If the Twins are going to hunt any matchups for Moran, they should seek right-handed hitters in 2023. Facing primarily righties will further improve his numbers and make him a weapon in a bullpen that could be the best in years for the Twins.
                   
    Alex Kirilloff
    Kirilloff has unfortunately been on these types of lists for 3 years. The Twins expected that in 2021, once they blatantly manipulated his service time, he could come in and be a star left fielder every day for years to come. That expectation was reasonable at the time. In 2018, he was the Twins Minor League Player of the Year, and his strong performances continued in 2019 during his first taste of the upper minors at AA. He had wrist problems flare up for the first time in 2019, but after a strong performance at the Twins alternate site in 2020, which they believed warranted a rare playoff Major League Baseball debut, it was time for the global top 20 prospect to be an impact player for the Twins.
    That has not yet happened for Kirilloff as his wrist has bogged him down. Over the past two seasons, Twins fans at times saw him hit the ball hard and really be the hitter prospect analysts promised us, but far more often his wrist left him sidelined, or he at least performed at a subpar level. In 2021, his batted ball data indicated that he would start seeing a lot of hits and extra base hits with a .544 xSLG, but he didn’t play enough for those results to come, only playing 59 games for the Twins. In 2022, he was bad in the MLB, but at AAA he showed that a great hitter is in there, with a 1.106 OPS. There even was a stretch with the Twins from July 2nd to July 23rd when he posted a 157 wRC+, making him a 57% above average hitter. During that stretch, it seemed that he was finally coming along, especially when he went 6 for 13 with 2 home runs and 6 RBIs, in what seemed like a pivotal series against the White Sox. Soon after, he fell off a cliff and didn’t play another game in the majors for the Twins in 2022.
    Wrists are tricky and sometimes hitters never get back to their best due to a wrist injury. That could be the unfortunate reality for Kirilloff. But if the new medical staff can help him navigate the wrist problem, he can be a huge bat in the middle of the lineup, hitting for extra bases and average, and could even be the best left-handed hitter in the Twins lineup.
    Ryan Jeffers
    When the Twins drafted Ryan Jeffers and signed him above slot value, he was seen as a player who would be a really good power hitter, but he likely would have to move off catcher due to his defense. Thus far, he has been a very solid defensive catcher, but he has not yet tapped into the bat that the Twins thought they were getting. In 2022, Jeffers was an above average pitch framer, who handled the staff well, and a well below average hitter, with a wRC+ of 87, making him 13% below average. If he can tap into more power, which prospect analysts believed he had, he can be a real asset for the Twins in 2023. If the Twins can get above average offensive production from catcher, that’s a huge advantage on the competition, when most catchers are their team’s worst hitters. We saw that when Mitch Garver had a monstrous season in 2019, and when the Twins had AJ Pierzynski and Joe Mauer in the 2000s.
    The most obvious way for him to put up better offensive numbers is for him to play almost every game when the Twins are facing a left-handed pitcher. If that’s around 40-50 games, he’ll be in a great position to succeed, especially if he can even slightly improve against right-handed pitchers. While Christian Vázquez has been better against lefties than righties, he hasn’t been nearly as good over his career as Jeffers has been. Against lefties, Jeffers has crushed, with a wRC+ of 125, which is really good for anybody, but especially for a catcher. Hopefully, he can thrive getting more of those platoon matchups while continuing to be a very good defensive catcher. If he does, the Twins could have a big offensive advantage at catcher, making their lineup dangerous enough to really contend for a division title.
  3. Adam Friedman
    Two and a half weeks after Carlos Correa agreed to terms with the Mets, he remains a free agent, and the Twins now seem to be re-entering the fray opportunistically. As the rumors of the Twins' serious renewed interest emerged this weekend, many Twins fans expressed that they no longer desire an improbable Correa-Twins reunion.
    There are a few common arguments Twins fans against Twins pursuing a long-term deal with Correa use: he “wasn’t special in 2022,” he doesn’t want to be in Minnesota and is just “using us,” and that he’s a “damaged good.” Those arguments are all wrong or flawed.
    Correa wasn’t that Good in 2022
    This argument is the least common, but I’ve seen it enough that I had to address it. It’s an argument that largely hinges on batting average and RBIs, which we know are not great measures of offensive production. There is also a somewhat accurate perception that Correa wasn’t very “clutch” in 2022.
    By any measure, Correa was awesome in 2022. Correa put up a 4.4 fWAR, 5.4 bWAR, and 140 wRC+- which means he was a 40% above league average hitter. That's a superstar, especially considering he plays a premium position very well and was the platinum glove winner in 2021.
    Beyond his outstanding performance in 2022, Correa is projected to be even more productive in 2023, with Fangraphs steamer projecting him to put up a 5.7 fWAR season in 2023.
    While these numbers are great, some Twins fans claim he wasn’t that clutch. That is partially true. His wRC+ with runners in scoring position in 2022 was 109, much lower than his outstanding 140 wRC+ on the season, but still 9% above league average. He also put up a 1.26 Win Probability Added, meaning that based on his situational production, he added 1.26 wins for the Twins in 2022.
    If none of these advanced metrics do it for you and you still care more about RBI, Correa is 6th all-time in postseason RBI and is the active leader, 10 RBI ahead of Jose Altuve. That’s pretty good! Let’s hope he can add to his total as a Twin in 2023.
    Sometimes it takes a deep dive to evaluate a player's production. That shouldn't be the case with Correa, but I hope my short analysis clarifies what should be obvious: Carlos Correa is an excellent ballplayer.
    He’s Using the Twins/Doesn’t Want to be Here
    I do not care if he might use the Twins for leverage in his Mets negotiations. A free agent is "using the Twins" until they are not. There's no way for the Twins to know if he is or isn't using them for leverage.
    The only way to find out a free agent's intentions is to enter the negotiations in good faith and make strong offers, which the Twins reportedly did this weekend.
    Now, there are two ways this could go. One way is that he signs with the Twins for around nine years and $275 million. Great. The Twins have signed a player with the early makings of a Hall of Fame resume, and he will play the remainder of his career in Minnesota.
    This outcome could be an issue if a player who is unhappy to be in Minnesota doesn’t buy in and is just upset about how free agency went. We've seen that be an issue before, as Minnesota is rarely players' number-one destination in free agency.
    These concerns are unfounded with Correa. By all accounts, Correa was a great teammate and member of the organization in 2022. This was on essentially a one-year deal after his free agency was a huge disappointment. So, we have to imagine that his leadership and “buy-in” would be as good or even better after signing to be with the Twins for the rest of his career.
    Alternatively, and far more likely, the Twins' offer will allow Correa to get more money from the Mets or more favorable terms around his ankle injury. That outcome is acceptable too. Given how great he was as a leader and teammate in 2022, I’m happy for the Twins to help him to get a better deal, and I won’t be sad about him holding Steve Cohen’s feet to the fire, either.
    Either way, the Twins re-engaging and maybe "being used" is completely fine. Hopefully, it results in him signing with the Twins, but the alternative that he gets a better deal does not negatively affect the Twins at all.
    Damaged Good
    First off, no baseball player is a damaged good. They are baseball players, but they are also human beings. They are not goods.
    It is, however, extremely reasonable to be concerned about the Twins potentially signing long-term a player whose medicals have caused two big market teams to rethink their major free agent signing. I am especially sympathetic to this argument, given how injuries derailed the 2022 season.
    The Twins saw his medical last year, though. And while they weren’t evaluating his ankle for a long-term deal, they should at least have some idea of what is going on with his ankle. Given that he missed no time for the injury in 2022, it’s hard to imagine the situation has changed that much. If the repaired ankle has deteriorated, the Twins will at least be able to see an MRI before actually signing Correa.
    I am also hopeful that with a new training staff that will bring a new approach, the Twins generally will manage injuries better and have fewer and shorter injuries in 2023. They should have full faith in the new training staff they brought in to properly deal with Correa's ankle as best as possible.
    While I also don’t feel great about Correa’s health, I am hopeful that if the Twins sign him, they know what they are signing up for and are ready to handle it.
    Another aspect of the failed physicals is that they may provide the Twins a rare opportunity to sign an elite player in free agency. There will never be a perfect free agent, and if there were, they wouldn’t likely choose the Twins. So, the Twins are correct to try to take advantage of this rare opportunity, even if it’s a massive risk on the health front.
    At the end of this saga, it seems that Correa will more than likely be a Met. If that's the case, it won't have affected the Twins that he "used" them at all. If he does end up in Minnesota, Twins fans should embrace the risk they will have taken and be excited that the Twins will have an elite player for most of the next decade.
  4. Adam Friedman
    This offseason has been frustrating. A couple of nice marginal signings in Joey Gallo and Christian Vásquez, both of which I’m kind of a fan of. But the Twins talked for months about their desire to bring back Carlos Correa and made him a sizeable, yet somewhat uncompetitive offer to return, and certainly were never going to get to the final $315 million number he signed for. They should’ve done just about everything they could to retain his talent and leadership, though because there are a lot of good things too look forward to with this team. They have very solid homegrown depth throughout the lineup and  a fairly good group of 8 pitchers, who will give them a chance to win just about every day, but they lack the star power needed to really contend for anything more than an AL Central title.
     
    Depth on Offense
    On the offensive side of the ball, the Twins have very solid starting level players at every position, besides shortstop in their opening day lineup. In fact, according to Fangraphs ZiPS, by Dan Szymborski, the Twins are projected above average at every position, besides left field.  
    The starters are good, but the reason I’m so optimistic about the roster is that in addition to those starters, the Twins bench players- which will include some most of Nick Gordon, Matt Wallner, Ryan Jeffers, and Gilberto Celestino all have talent to be tapped into. Gordon, coming off of a breakout season, will be sure to see plenty of game time; Wallner had a great season in the minors and first taste of the big leagues; Jeffers crushes lefties; and Celestino is still young and at times in both the majors and minors showed power that the Twins might be able to tap into. If they had signed Correa, Kyle Farmer would just be a platoon bat in this mix off the bench- another good role player to have. However, one of Matt Wallner and Gilberto Celestino, will start in AAA, with Kyle Garlick likely to be the Opening Day RHH corner outfield platoon bat. The Twins also have a strong group of prospects beyond Wallner and Celestino who will be able to make an impact in 2023- Brooks Lee, Royce Lewis, Edouard Julien, and Austin Martin.
    That organizational depth offensively is really exciting. It should enable them to better handle injury problems, especially if Nick Paparesta can help the team have just normal injury luck. The foundation is good enough to make one think that it was time to add (or keep) a superstar. They have a lot of really good players, but beyond the oft-injured Byron Buxton, they have no superstars. There are guys who could be in 2023, but no one is a bonified superstar beyond Buxton. This depth of “really good” definitely could help the Twins be a solidly above average offense. But if you add in Carlos Correa (replacing Kyle Farmer at short, pushing him to a platoon utility role), with better health and some steps up, the offense would’ve had a chance to be once again a premier offense in the league, like we all enjoyed in 2019.
      1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th C Christian Vásquez Ryan Jeffers       1B Luis Arráez  Alex Kirilloff José Miranda     2B Jorge Polanco Nick Gordon Kyle Farmer Edouard Julien* Austin Martin* 3B José Miranda Kyle Farmer Royce Lewis* Brooks Lee*   SS Kyle Farmer Nick Gordon Royce Lewis*     LF  Trevor Larnach Kyle Garlick Nick Gordon Matt Wallner   CF Byron Buxton Nick Gordon Joey Gallo Gilberto Celestino*   RF Joey Gallo Matt Wallner Alex Kirilloff     DH Alex Kirilloff Byron Buxton  Luis Arráez       
    Starting Pitching Depth/Strong Bullpen
    The Twins also have strong depth in the rotation, and again lack that star power. However you want to label each guy, the first 5 starting pitchers is a group of 2s and 3s. If they start with a 6-man rotation, that would arguably also apply to Winder, who seems likeliest to win that 6th starter job, barring the addition of say, Johnny Cueto. They also have Varland and Woods Richardson ready to pitch when they are needed, which I’m sure won’t take long. They’ll also hope that Jordan Balazovic and Chris Paddack are ready to step in later in the season, although that seems unlikely for both guys. Having 8 guys that fall between “pretty good” and “fine” is a really good place to be, when one third of their games were started by Chris Archer and Dylan Bundy in 2022. The Twins had a .370 winning percentage in those games. In 2023, those starts should made by Ober, Winder, Varland, and Woods Richardson, which will give the Twins a chance in so many more games, raising the floor considerably. Just as with the offense, the starting staff is deep with good talent waiting in the wings, but lacks that high end starter.
    1st Tyler Mahle 2nd Joe Ryan 3rd Sonny Gray 4th Kenta Maeda 5th Bailey Ober 6th Josh Winder 7th Louis Varland* 8th Simeon Woods Richardson* 9th Jordan Balazovic* 10th Chris Paddack* You finally have star power in the back of the bullpen. Jhoan Durán is one of the elite arms in all of baseball. Caleb Theilbar is an outstanding lefty reliever and Griffin Jax is a stud and seems to be getting better and trying to throw harder. Jorge López will hopefully return to closer to his 2022 Baltimore form, making for a really strong middle and backend of the bullpen, which will likely be added to in free agency. Jorge Alcalá is returning and Jovani Moran is poised to step up. The maybe can get more out of Trevor Megill or get breakouts from Cole Sands and Ronny Henriquez too. So, the bullpen has a great chance to be a strength and has that same depth as the rotation and offense do.
     
    Good Roster Devoid of a Second Superstar
    Overall, I think the Twins have a really good roster. It has really good players in almost every position, many of them under control for multiple years, although much less so in the rotation. The roster, as constructed, should have a chance to contend with Cleveland (projections system have the Twins just behind them and tied with Chicago). But the Twins could have been at least co-division favorites had they capitalized on the great depth they’ve built and the books they’ve worked hard to keep clean by signing Carlos Correa, which in the end they never tried hard enough to do. Maybe they still can acquire that elite talent via trade before the season or at the deadline. This front office is certainly unpredictable. If they do acquire that elite talent and have “normal luck”, we could see a fun season where people flood to Target Field, buy the new jerseys, and maybe even celebrate that elusive postseason victory.
     
     
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