Adam Friedman

Can Jovani Moran keep his strikeout rate high enough and walk rate low enough to be a weapon for the Twins in 2023? Image courtesy of Nick Turchiaro-USA TODAY Sports In 40 ⅔ innings in 2022, Jovani Moran indicated he is ready to be an impact reliever for the Twins in 2023. He posted a 2.21 ERA and 1.78 FIP in 2022, driven by a high strikeout rate and ground ball rate. Beyond the topline numbers, Moran was great against both right-handed and left-handed hitters. He gave up a .554 OPS against lefties and a laughable .458 OPS against righties. His terrific changeup drives the reverse splits. While his strong 2022 performance leaves the Twins optimistic, Moran's severe lack of control throughout his career remains a question mark. He has had mammoth walk rates for most of his career, but the similarly eye-popping strikeout rates have allowed him to remain effective. The Twins seem to trust Moran as the second left-handed reliever on the roster behind Caleb Theilbar, and they chose not to add a lefty in free agency. To pay off that trust, Moran must maintain strikeout rates well above 30%, which he has maintained throughout his professional career. He will also need to find a way to keep walks as low as possible, but he has consistently had a walk rate above 10%, which falls comfortably in Fangraphs' "awful" categorization for that statistic. Digging deeper into Moran's 2022 with the Twins, he had an elite 32.9% K% and a dreadful 11% BB%. Those are extreme numbers on each end of the K/BB spectrum. He also had a 48.9% ground ball rate, which is above average and a good sign when the ball is put into play, as ground balls are less likely to do damage than line drives or home runs. The high ground ball rate has been consistent throughout his career, almost as consistent as the walks and strikeouts. Assuming he maintains the strikeout rate and ground ball rate, Moran is likely to be a very solid option out of the bullpen for the Twins and likely to be trusted in medium and high-leverage situations regularly. However, lowering his walk rate could alter the perception of Moran within the Twins organization and amongst their fans. Bringing it below 10% could help make him an elite reliever and a real weapon in an already talented and deep bullpen. In September and an appearance in October, after spending most of August in Triple-A, Moran showed signs of improving his command and control while maintaining his elite strikeout numbers. In 14 ⅓ innings, he still had an elite K/9 of 11.3 and a very good 1.88 BB/9, leading to a minuscule FIP of 1.78. The 1.88 BB/9 is entirely inconsistent with any full season he's had. He has averaged 4.6 for his career. However, if he can land in a middle ground between those points, Moran would force himself into the mix for high-leverage appearances and even put some pressure on Caleb Thielbar for the lefty matchups- despite his reverse splits. The Twins are relying on Moran being at least a reliable middle reliever. But he can be more than that if he carries his command and control from September into 2023. Then, Rocco Baldelli would have a strikeout monster who keeps the ball on the ground to utilize against both lefties and righties, with minimal downside. What are your thoughts on Jovani Moran and his role with the 2023 Twins? Can he turn into the dominant reliever we would love to see, or would the Twins be wise to add some lefty reliever depth to go with Danny Coulombe, Locke St. John, Tyler Webb and other minor-league signings? Leave a COMMENT below. View full article

Personally, holding out hope for a Kepler trade. I think there are question marks about all of the lefty OFs so maybe holding onto them and seeing who sticks isn’t a bad plan.

I've thought about that some for a long time. I think the lack of a real track record of sustained success makes it hard to plan on, although Kepler and Gallo aren't reliable, either. I wouldn't be surprised to see Gordon end up in that role at some point (against righties), but he won't start the season in that role.

Agree on Gordon. I think we should expect to see Farmer in the outfield some against lefties. I agree he’s best suited to play the infield though.

The Twins sport a relatively unknown 1-2 platoon punch on their bench. Can it provide a small but critical difference in the AL Central? Image courtesy of Jeffrey Becker-USA TODAY Sports The AL Central is expected to be very tight and, according to projections and betting lines, the Twins are projected to finish second or third. For the Twins to make up the ground on Cleveland and Chicago, they'll need to get production on the margins, whether on defense, in the bullpen, or off the bench. Kyle Farmer and Nick Gordon's platoon pairing as utility players could be an excellent way for the Twins to score crucial extra runs. Left-handed hitting Gordon will play most days when righties are pitching, and right-handed hitting Farmer will play most days when lefties are pitching, which will give the Twins lineup added length in either platoon situation. Kyle Farmer When the Twins brought in Kyle Farmer from the Reds via trade, Twins fans hoped he would serve as a platoon bat in a utility role. Farmer can fill in all around the infield and corner outfield and, if necessary, at catcher. Farmer playing a utility role hinged on the Twins bringing in a big-name shortstop, and for a while, it appeared the Reds 2022 starting shortstop would be the Twins' Opening Day shortstop in 2023. When Carlos Correa signed with the Twins for at least six years, Farmer was thrust back into that utility role for which he is well-suited. Being able to target lefty pitchers for him to match up with could be a massive advantage for the Twins. In 2022, he obliterated left-handed pitchers with a 157 wRC+, which indicates he was a 57% above-average hitter, fueled by a .568 SLG. Farmer will move around the diamond for the Twins to hunt lefty matchups. Considering that two righties, a switch-hitter, and just one lefty make up the Twins' Opening Day infield, they may shuffle things around when lefties are on the bump. Farmer could slot in at left field, as the Twins have suggested, although he's only played four innings in the outfield in his major league career. Alternatively, they could move Jose Miranda to first base and slot Farmer, the superior defensive third baseman, at third. Wherever he slots in, the Twins hope that he will continue his dominance in those platoon matchups and provide much more versatility than their 2022 right-handed platoon bat, Kyle Garlick. Nick Gordon Nick Gordon put together his first full season at the major-league level in 2022. To the surprise of many, the 2014 first round pick was excellent. Gordon showed a surprising bit of power at the plate, especially against right-handed pitching. He put up a 111 wRC+ overall, and a 125 wRC+ against righties. He also showed that there might even be another level when he had a phenomenal 141 wRC+ against righties from July 1st to the end of the season. Due to his health, Gordon has a minimal track record of success at the upper minors or major-league level, so it's reasonable to question whether his production is sustainable. However, the batted ball data indicates that it was not just a flash in the pan. Gordon graded out in the 86th percentile for xSLG based on the quality of his contact. That could improve if he faces fewer left-handed pitchers, against whom he had a horrible 58 wRC+ against. Beyond roughing up righties, Gordon provided tremendous defensive flexibility. He played at least 17 games at left field, second base, shortstop and center field. He wasn't good at any position and was below average in the infield, but he was about average at both left field and center field. His ability to be somewhat competent at many positions will enable the Twins to get his bat into the lineup against righties as they get regulars off their feet. If you ask the average fan in any market outside of Cincinnati or Minnesota, they probably don't know Nick Gordon or Kyle Farmer. But these can be the type of bench players that make the difference between winning the division and coming up just short, especially when injuries pop up. Depending on the matchup, having one of Farmer or Gordon in the lineup just about every day will be a tremendous asset for the Twins in 2023. View full article

Many analysts and projections have suggested the Twins' bullpen could be a significant strength in 2023. That is likely true, but the Twins could benefit from adding additional bullpen depth in free agency. Image courtesy of Steven Bisig-USA TODAY Sports As constructed, the Twins are an injury or two away from Trevor Megill or Emilio Pagán being thrust into high-leverage situations much more frequently than they should be. Twins fans saw last year that those pitchers are not well suited for such situations. Luckily for the Twins, in an offseason where free agents flew off the shelf, there are still a few relievers available who can provide the Twins with valuable additional depth. I've compiled a list of five of the most attractive options available, utilizing Jon Becker's extremely helpful free agent matrix. A couple are much more exciting than the rest, but any of the five could be a valuable addition to the Twins. The Best Options Matt Moore After a long and winding path that included a stop in Japan in 2020, Moore found himself amongst the elite relievers in 2022 as a 33-year-old. It was his first season as a full-time reliever, and he thrived in that role. With increased fastball velocity and heavy usage of a faster curveball with more vertical break, Moore completely dominated right-handed hitters as a lefty. He had an elite 11.17 K/9 vs. righties, allowing just a .537 OPS. He was good against lefties, too, with fewer strikeouts but still giving up an OPS of just .634. His dominance against righties, paired with his solid performance against lefties, resulted in a ridiculous 1.95 ERA and 2.98 FIP, a statistic that removes defense from the ERA equation to focus on what the pitcher can control. While his results indicated reverse splits, meaning he was better against right-handed hitters as a left-handed pitcher, he had a worse FIP (3.08) against righties than lefties (2.70). He will likely have more neutral splits moving forward, meaning he may be equally good against righties and lefties. The Twins have a few solid lefties in Caleb Thielbar, Jovani Moran, and Danny Coulombe, but bringing in Moore or a different lefty still could make sense for the Twins. Moran has reverse splits and will likely start the year at AAA, so Thielbar is the only lefty with normal splits vs. lefties. If Moore's splits remain reversed, he will face mostly righties anyways, and if they become more neutral, he would give Thielbar a partner against lefties. Moore is coming off a great season and is one of the best free agent options available to add to the bullpen. Andrew Chafin Like Matt Moore, Andrew Chafin had a great 2022 as a veteran left-handed reliever. Chafin also had reverse splits in 2022 with Detroit. Unlike Moore, Chafin has made a tremendous career as a reliever, having not started since he made three starts in 2014 as a rookie. Chafin has a career-long sample size of traditional splits, where he's been better against lefties than righties. Chafin was not quite as dominant as Moore in 2022, still posting an outstanding 2.83 ERA and 3.06 FIP. Chafin's track record of being a reliable middle reliever or setup man makes him an excellent option for the Twins. He would considerably raise the floor of the bullpen unit and be much more trustworthy in high-leverage situations than the guys whose innings he'd be replacing. Adding a back-end-level reliever also helps the rest of the bullpen by pushing everybody below him down one slot in the pecking order. Chafin is also the ideal prototype of a reliever. He put up a 10.52 K/9 in 2022 while only giving up 2.98 BB/9. He also kept the ball on the ground far more than he had since 2017, which is a great way to keep the ball in the ballpark. That combination is exactly what any team is looking for when holding the lead. Chafin would be an excellent addition to the strong Twins' bullpen, pitching in the middle or late innings. Best of the Rest Michael Fulmer Converting from starter to reliever in 2021, Michael Fulmer posted a 2.97 ERA and 3.46 FIP and followed that with a solid 2022, putting up a 3.39 ERA and 3.57 FIP. Of course, his solid 2022 led the Twins to trade for Fulmer at the trade deadline. His performance was less dominant when he came over but was solid for the Twins, with a 3.70 ERA and 4.13 FIP. He is not without some flaws. Fulmer's slider is an elite pitch, which makes him dominant against righties, but he struggles mightily against lefties, giving up a hideous .960 OPS. With the three-batter minimum, this type of reliever is less valuable than it once was, but the Twins can still pick spots where his skillset is appropriate, especially in the middle innings. It's possible the Twins could work with Fulmer to improve his fastball or changeup to perform better against left-handed hitters, but they likely would have already signed him if they had such a plan. Fulmer is a very solid pitcher who would add depth to the bullpen. Unlike Moore and Chafin, he would likely slot into the middle innings rather than the highest-leverage situations. Brad Hand In recent off-seasons, the Twins were in the relief market, and in those off-seasons, Chaska's own, Brad Hand, has come up amongst some Twins fans. The 32-year-old has starred in relief since moving to the bullpen full-time in 2016. From 2016-20, Hand had an ERA below 3.30- usually below three and a FIP below 3.20. The southpaw’s extended run of excellence ended in 2021, when he got crushed, with a 3.90 ERA and extremely concerning 4.58 FIP. He went from a great strikeout pitcher to well below average, which seems most responsible for his demise. Not all pitchers necessarily rely on strikeouts and whiffs, but Hand gave up a lot of hard contact when the whiffs and strikeouts went away. In 2022, Hand's 2.80 ERA indicated that he still might have something left to give. Unfortunately, his 3.93 FIP indicates that he still isn't somebody to be trusted. The strikeouts dipped further, but he did at least do a great job of keeping the ball in the ballpark. Still, his batted ball data mirrored his tough 2021 much more than the prior five great years. Anecdotally, when I asked my obnoxious Philly fan friend about him, he said, "Ugh, he's the worst." This sentiment, of course, perfectly lines up with the underlying data. Some pitchers beat the batted ball data and FIP and produce low ERAs as Hand did in 2022. Maybe he can do it again, and if he can, it would be worth bringing him home to Minnesota on a low-risk one-year deal. Will Smith As many of the right-handed reliever free agents were scooped up already, Will Smith is one last lefty to take a look at. The 33-year-old former all-star struggled in 2021 and 2022, but there are some reasons to think he can still help a team out in his batted ball data. Smith's 3.97 ERA and 4.26 FIP in 2022 may not tell the entire story for his season. His 22 innings in Houston after being traded from Atlanta were very solid. He had a 3.27 ERA and a phenomenal 2.66 FIP after the trade compared to a 4.38 ERA and 5.22 FIP before the trade. Looking at the batted ball data from 2021 and 2022, Will Smith looks like a reliable reliever but not the star he once was. The Twins could use the guy the data indicates he is. In 2022, Smith had a 3.57 xERA; in 2021, he had a 3.37 xERA—an above-average strikeout rate, whiff rate, and barrel rate drove this success. Smith also dominated against lefties but struggled against righties, so with Jovani Moran's reverse splits, Smith would serve as the Twins' second lefty behind Thielbar, which could be important when Thielbar is unavailable. Smith has always struggled with walks and no longer flaunts elite strikeout rates like he once did. But he's still a well above-average pitcher by the batted ball data, and when considering his numbers against the current bottom of the bullpen pecking order, bringing him in is a no-brainer. The Twins' bullpen could be as good as any in recent memory. That's the nature of having Jhoan Duran. There are other outstanding pitchers with Duran in the bullpen, but signing Moore or Chafin would solidify the bullpen as one of the best in baseball. Even adding one of the free agents from the "Best of the Rest" category would go a long way. If they solidify the unit, Twins fans should be able to breathe easily late in ball games, for once. View full article

On Friday, the Twins crushed their fans by trading fan favorite Luis Arraez for Pablo López and two teenage prospects. This move will bolster their rotation, but the Twins will need to replace Arraez's production at first base and from the left side of the plate. Image courtesy of © Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports Alex Kirilloff will be the first in line to replace Luis Arraez at first and against righties. Hoping Kirilloff's wrist doesn't flare up is the Twins' top priority when replacing Arraez. If Kirilloff misses time, however, the Twins will have an abundance of options to replace him, and one of the most exciting options is Edouard Julien. Similarities between Arraez and Julien Julien and Luis Arraez both came up as second baseman. Neither is renowned for their defense at the position, and it is not a premium position. That limits their value and forces them to hit to be valuable players. Luckily for Arraez and Julien, they've shown they can hit, especially against right-handed pitchers. In 2022, Arraez posted a very good .824 OPS against right-handed pitchers, and Julien at AA posted a 1.031 OPS against right-handed pitchers. Arraez’s strong .386 OBP primarily drives his success against righties. That on-base ability against righties is something the Twins will desperately need to replace. Last year, Julien posted a remarkable .465 OBP at AA against righties. If he can bring some of that on-base ability to the Twins, that would lessen the blow of losing Arraez. While Arraez and Julien share defensive limitations and overall production against right-handed pitchers, each has particular areas of their game where they excel over the other. So, it definitely won't be a one-for-one swap. Of course, you'll be hard-pressed to find anybody like Luis Arraez. Where Arraez is Better Luis Arraez famously rarely strikes out. In his major league career, Arraez has more walks than strikeouts. His strikeout rate for his career is a tiny 8.3%. On the other hand, Julien strikes out at a poor rate, with a 24.6% strikeout rate in 2022 at AA. Surely, that would only increase at the major league level. Arraez has also established himself as a premier hitter for average. While batting average isn't a great measure of overall offensive production, it’s certainly a component. For batting average, Luis Arraez is your man. Of course, he's the batting champion, which tells you all you need to know about his ability to hit for average. Diving deeper in comparing him to Julien, his age-22 season in 2019 at AA seems most relevant as Julien just completed his age-23 season at AA. In limited games at AA in 2019 at age 22, Arraez hit a fantastic .348, which helped him on his ascent to the majors that season. Julien hit a much more mortal .300, which is still nothing to sneeze at. Another key differentiator between Arraez and Julien is that Arraez proved he could hit over his 3+ years in the majors. Julien seems on the path to hitting at the major league level too, but he hasn't even reached AAA, so he has a lot to prove. But Julien has shown he can do things that Arraez's limited skill set cannot match. Where Julien is Better Julien's strikeout rate is ugly, but like many strikeout-prone hitters, Julien walks a ton. He had an elite 19.3% walk rate in 2022, which is a significant driver in his terrific on-base success. Arraez's walk rate for his career is a much more average of 8.7%. Another common characteristic of strikeout-prone players is power, and Julien has plenty. Of course, most of that comes against righties. He slugged .566 against righties with 15 of his 17 home runs in those matchups. This dimension of power and a more patient plate approach is where Julien differentiates himself from Arraez, at the cost of batting average. The Twins need more slugging in 2022 to maximize their offense, so Julien will boost their lineup. They especially need that from the left side. Last season, Nick Gordon had the highest slugging percentage of any Twins left-handed hitter. Whether the Twins won or lost the Luis Arraez for Pablo López trade will mostly depend on López pitching well and staying healthy. But it will also hinge on young left-handed hitters replacing Arraez in the lineup against right-handed pitching. The Twins have their fair share of young left-handed hitters capable of stepping up. While Julien is still young and hasn't yet reached AAA, Twins fans shouldn't be surprised if they see him terrorizing right-handers in the majors come summertime. View full article

For months, there has been speculation that the Twins may trade Luis Arraez to bolster their rotation. The Twins need at least one controllable starter as they will lose three starters to free agency next season and could definitely use rotation help in 2023. There are some baseball reasons to trade Arraez, as the Twins have a surplus of left-handed hitters who play corner positions in the infield and outfield. Bringing back Correa makes the infield even more crowded, and the looming additions of Brooks Lee, Edouard Julien, and Royce Lewis make trading Arraez very reasonable on paper. However, if the Twins trade Luis Arraez, the price has to be right. Beyond his fantastic hitting and solid defense at first, Arraez means so much to the fanbase and clubhouse. If the Twins pull the trigger on an Arraez trade, it must bring back a true frontline starter. Otherwise, you're not getting nearly enough for such a special player and person. Arraez the Guy Luis Arraez is fun. Fans love him, and his teammates seem to as well. He plays the game with vigor and joy, and his at bats are appointment-viewing. You could see his teammate's support for him when he was named an all-star, as they all celebrated with him and were thrilled to enjoy his moment with him. Like Carlos Correa and Byron Buxton, he is at the heart and soul of this team. We’ve seen the front office emphasize character more since their failed signings of Lance Lynn and Josh Donaldson. Trading Arraez would be a costly departure from that emphasis. Arraez, while fun and joyful, is also the consummate professional who, in any interview, will emphasize that, while he enjoys his individual accolades, his top priority is helping the team win. The Twins' sparkplug isn't all talk, either. Arraez has shown a terrific work ethic during his time with the Twins. In fact, as I write this, he is in the Dominican Republic working on his craft with Nelson Cruz, which you can occasionally watch on Cruz’s Instagram. This work ethic has been vital in establishing himself as a premier hitter in the league after being overlooked as a prospect. This work ethic and baseball savvy enabled him to find a comfortable home at first base in 2022. Despite being small in stature for a first baseman, he was well above average there in 2022 by Defensive Runs Saved. That is extremely impressive because he had never played first base in the majors before that. His success at first base defensively is a testament to his willingness to do what he needs to do to help the Twins win. Arraez's character is exceptional, and the Twins will miss it if they trade him. Arraez the Ballplayer Beyond the person, Luis Arraez, the player, is awesome. From his aforementioned first base defense to his batting title, he was hugely productive for the Twins in 2022. Arraez fulfilled his dream of winning a batting title and played in his first career All Star Game. We don’t always put that much value into those accomplishments alone in 2023, but advanced metrics confirm that he had a great season. The fan-favorite accumulated 3.2 fWAR and a wRC+ of 131, which means he was a 31% above league-average hitter. These topline numbers underscore a terrific player that any team would be lucky to have. Not only that, Fangraphs' Steamer projects him to just about repeat those numbers, projecting a 3.1 fWAR and 126 wRC+ 2023 season. Digging deeper, Arraez tailed off in the second half of 2022 with a wRC+ of 106. His hamstring ailments, which could be an issue moving forward, held him back. On the flip side, his first-half performance, where he put up a 150 wRC+, indicates that a healthy Arraez can be an elite hitter. Further, Arraez is your man with runners in scoring position. Arraez hit an unbelievable .366 with RISP in 2022. Success with RISP isn't usually indicative of future performance in these spots, but Arraez's success makes sense, given his approach. To be clear, Arraez is not a perfect player. He has struggled to stay healthy, can only really play first base, and is a league-average hitter against lefties. These limitations are legitimate issues with Arraez, but his distinct style is helpful on a team that values slugging as much as the Twins. Beyond just his unusual style for the modern game, Arraez has been highly productive by any metric and should be coveted as a player. Arraez's Futrue with the Twins Like everybody in Major League Baseball, everybody has a price that can be paid to trade for their services. In Arraez’s case, that price should be extremely high, and they should be asking for more than Pablo López, who the Twins reportedly have a strong interest in acquiring. If they are adamant about trading Arraez for a starting pitcher, they should bundle Arraez and a couple of good prospects to get a true frontline starter. It’s hard to predict trades, but some guys who could be available if they went that route could be Brandon Woodruff, Zac Gallen, or Nestor Cortes. We will see if any pitchers of that caliber become available before spring training, and if they do, the Twins would be sensible to trade Arraez for a true frontline starter. They cannot trade him for anything less. Before pulling the trigger on any Arraez trade, the front office must take stock of what he means to the fanbase and clubhouse, on and off the field.

Two and a half weeks after Carlos Correa agreed to terms with the Mets, he remains a free agent, and the Twins now seem to be re-entering the fray opportunistically. As the rumors of the Twins' serious renewed interest emerged this weekend, many Twins fans expressed that they no longer desire an improbable Correa-Twins reunion. There are a few common arguments Twins fans against Twins pursuing a long-term deal with Correa use: he “wasn’t special in 2022,” he doesn’t want to be in Minnesota and is just “using us,” and that he’s a “damaged good.” Those arguments are all wrong or flawed. Correa wasn’t that Good in 2022 This argument is the least common, but I’ve seen it enough that I had to address it. It’s an argument that largely hinges on batting average and RBIs, which we know are not great measures of offensive production. There is also a somewhat accurate perception that Correa wasn’t very “clutch” in 2022. By any measure, Correa was awesome in 2022. Correa put up a 4.4 fWAR, 5.4 bWAR, and 140 wRC+- which means he was a 40% above league average hitter. That's a superstar, especially considering he plays a premium position very well and was the platinum glove winner in 2021. Beyond his outstanding performance in 2022, Correa is projected to be even more productive in 2023, with Fangraphs steamer projecting him to put up a 5.7 fWAR season in 2023. While these numbers are great, some Twins fans claim he wasn’t that clutch. That is partially true. His wRC+ with runners in scoring position in 2022 was 109, much lower than his outstanding 140 wRC+ on the season, but still 9% above league average. He also put up a 1.26 Win Probability Added, meaning that based on his situational production, he added 1.26 wins for the Twins in 2022. If none of these advanced metrics do it for you and you still care more about RBI, Correa is 6th all-time in postseason RBI and is the active leader, 10 RBI ahead of Jose Altuve. That’s pretty good! Let’s hope he can add to his total as a Twin in 2023. Sometimes it takes a deep dive to evaluate a player's production. That shouldn't be the case with Correa, but I hope my short analysis clarifies what should be obvious: Carlos Correa is an excellent ballplayer. He’s Using the Twins/Doesn’t Want to be Here I do not care if he might use the Twins for leverage in his Mets negotiations. A free agent is "using the Twins" until they are not. There's no way for the Twins to know if he is or isn't using them for leverage. The only way to find out a free agent's intentions is to enter the negotiations in good faith and make strong offers, which the Twins reportedly did this weekend. Now, there are two ways this could go. One way is that he signs with the Twins for around nine years and $275 million. Great. The Twins have signed a player with the early makings of a Hall of Fame resume, and he will play the remainder of his career in Minnesota. This outcome could be an issue if a player who is unhappy to be in Minnesota doesn’t buy in and is just upset about how free agency went. We've seen that be an issue before, as Minnesota is rarely players' number-one destination in free agency. These concerns are unfounded with Correa. By all accounts, Correa was a great teammate and member of the organization in 2022. This was on essentially a one-year deal after his free agency was a huge disappointment. So, we have to imagine that his leadership and “buy-in” would be as good or even better after signing to be with the Twins for the rest of his career. Alternatively, and far more likely, the Twins' offer will allow Correa to get more money from the Mets or more favorable terms around his ankle injury. That outcome is acceptable too. Given how great he was as a leader and teammate in 2022, I’m happy for the Twins to help him to get a better deal, and I won’t be sad about him holding Steve Cohen’s feet to the fire, either. Either way, the Twins re-engaging and maybe "being used" is completely fine. Hopefully, it results in him signing with the Twins, but the alternative that he gets a better deal does not negatively affect the Twins at all. Damaged Good First off, no baseball player is a damaged good. They are baseball players, but they are also human beings. They are not goods. It is, however, extremely reasonable to be concerned about the Twins potentially signing long-term a player whose medicals have caused two big market teams to rethink their major free agent signing. I am especially sympathetic to this argument, given how injuries derailed the 2022 season. The Twins saw his medical last year, though. And while they weren’t evaluating his ankle for a long-term deal, they should at least have some idea of what is going on with his ankle. Given that he missed no time for the injury in 2022, it’s hard to imagine the situation has changed that much. If the repaired ankle has deteriorated, the Twins will at least be able to see an MRI before actually signing Correa. I am also hopeful that with a new training staff that will bring a new approach, the Twins generally will manage injuries better and have fewer and shorter injuries in 2023. They should have full faith in the new training staff they brought in to properly deal with Correa's ankle as best as possible. While I also don’t feel great about Correa’s health, I am hopeful that if the Twins sign him, they know what they are signing up for and are ready to handle it. Another aspect of the failed physicals is that they may provide the Twins a rare opportunity to sign an elite player in free agency. There will never be a perfect free agent, and if there were, they wouldn’t likely choose the Twins. So, the Twins are correct to try to take advantage of this rare opportunity, even if it’s a massive risk on the health front. At the end of this saga, it seems that Correa will more than likely be a Met. If that's the case, it won't have affected the Twins that he "used" them at all. If he does end up in Minnesota, Twins fans should embrace the risk they will have taken and be excited that the Twins will have an elite player for most of the next decade.

For the Twins to get back into the playoffs in 2023, they will need a host of elements to go well. Not only will the Twins require significantly better health in 2023 — they will also need some players to make leaps in the new year. Whether it’s younger established players or prospects, the Twins need big improvements from some young players to be a successful team. I’ve put together a list of players I think can take those steps to be impact players in 2023. Joe Ryan Since the Twins acquired Joe Ryan in exchange for Nelson Cruz at the 2021 trade deadline, he has impressed, and at times, dominated. In 32 starts, he has pitched 173.2 innings with an ERA of 3.63 and a FIP of 3.90. He has had a 25.7% strikeout rate and a 7.1% walk rate. These are all very good numbers for a guy coming off of his rookie year, and he would slot into just about any rotation in baseball. Ryan isn’t a typical breakout candidate due to his early success, but I believe at 26 years old, he has the ability to develop into more of a frontline starter and break out as a true star. In 2022, Ryan was much worse after a tough bout with Covid-19. Per Fangraphs, in starts before his long absence due to the virus, Ryan had a 2.25 ERA and a 3.25 FIP, but in starts after he came back, he had a 4.08 ERA and 4.30 FIP. Essentially, before his 3-week Covid absence, he was the frontline starter the Twins needed him to be, and after, he was a back-end of the rotation starter. Hopefully, once fully recovered in 2023, we can see Ryan lead the rotation and be a frontline starter. Beyond his mediocre numbers after his Covid-19 absence, Ryan’s performance against right-handed hitters in 2022 surprised me. I expected him to be a typical pitcher who performs better against same-sided batters. In the minors, Ryan had typical splits, where he was better against righties than lefties, but that was not the case in 2022. Against right-handed batters in 2022, Ryan threw fewer fastballs and more sliders. But his fastball was one of the best pitches in baseball in 2022 based on Baseball Savant’s run value metric, while his slider was well below average. For Ryan to become a frontline starter, he will need to improve his performance against right-handed batters, by either improving his slider or throwing fewer sliders against right-handed batters. If either of those strategies is effective and he can return to top physical shape, Ryan can be the Twins best starting pitcher (as the roster is currently constructed) and possibly become the frontline starter the Twins need in 2023. Jovani Moran Almost every number available shows that Jovani Moran is a really good relief pitcher who is ready to be an impact reliever for the Twins from Opening Day forward. From his 2.21 ERA and 1.78 FIP in 2022 for the Twins in 40.2 innings, to his 11.95 K/9, Twins fans should be excited for him to join the fold more in 2023. While his numbers holistically are awesome, he does walk a ton of batters. However, he limits home runs and strikes out enough hitters that the walks have rarely haunted him at any level, and his overall numbers should continue to be strong in 2023. While Moran has been extremely stingy against both righties and lefties, as a 2-pitch pitcher who relies a ton on nasty changeup, he has reverse splits, meaning he is better against right-handed batters than lefties. Because of this, he would benefit if the Twins add an additional left-handed reliever, so if Caleb Thielbar is unavailable, he doesn’t have to be the guy to just come in against lefties. Instead, he should be used in other high leverage situations, whether it’s an 8th inning in a 1- run game, or if there are guys on second and third and one out. If the Twins are going to hunt any matchups for Moran, they should seek right-handed hitters in 2023. Facing primarily righties will further improve his numbers and make him a weapon in a bullpen that could be the best in years for the Twins. Alex Kirilloff Kirilloff has unfortunately been on these types of lists for 3 years. The Twins expected that in 2021, once they blatantly manipulated his service time, he could come in and be a star left fielder every day for years to come. That expectation was reasonable at the time. In 2018, he was the Twins Minor League Player of the Year, and his strong performances continued in 2019 during his first taste of the upper minors at AA. He had wrist problems flare up for the first time in 2019, but after a strong performance at the Twins alternate site in 2020, which they believed warranted a rare playoff Major League Baseball debut, it was time for the global top 20 prospect to be an impact player for the Twins. That has not yet happened for Kirilloff as his wrist has bogged him down. Over the past two seasons, Twins fans at times saw him hit the ball hard and really be the hitter prospect analysts promised us, but far more often his wrist left him sidelined, or he at least performed at a subpar level. In 2021, his batted ball data indicated that he would start seeing a lot of hits and extra base hits with a .544 xSLG, but he didn’t play enough for those results to come, only playing 59 games for the Twins. In 2022, he was bad in the MLB, but at AAA he showed that a great hitter is in there, with a 1.106 OPS. There even was a stretch with the Twins from July 2nd to July 23rd when he posted a 157 wRC+, making him a 57% above average hitter. During that stretch, it seemed that he was finally coming along, especially when he went 6 for 13 with 2 home runs and 6 RBIs, in what seemed like a pivotal series against the White Sox. Soon after, he fell off a cliff and didn’t play another game in the majors for the Twins in 2022. Wrists are tricky and sometimes hitters never get back to their best due to a wrist injury. That could be the unfortunate reality for Kirilloff. But if the new medical staff can help him navigate the wrist problem, he can be a huge bat in the middle of the lineup, hitting for extra bases and average, and could even be the best left-handed hitter in the Twins lineup. Ryan Jeffers When the Twins drafted Ryan Jeffers and signed him above slot value, he was seen as a player who would be a really good power hitter, but he likely would have to move off catcher due to his defense. Thus far, he has been a very solid defensive catcher, but he has not yet tapped into the bat that the Twins thought they were getting. In 2022, Jeffers was an above average pitch framer, who handled the staff well, and a well below average hitter, with a wRC+ of 87, making him 13% below average. If he can tap into more power, which prospect analysts believed he had, he can be a real asset for the Twins in 2023. If the Twins can get above average offensive production from catcher, that’s a huge advantage on the competition, when most catchers are their team’s worst hitters. We saw that when Mitch Garver had a monstrous season in 2019, and when the Twins had AJ Pierzynski and Joe Mauer in the 2000s. The most obvious way for him to put up better offensive numbers is for him to play almost every game when the Twins are facing a left-handed pitcher. If that’s around 40-50 games, he’ll be in a great position to succeed, especially if he can even slightly improve against right-handed pitchers. While Christian Vázquez has been better against lefties than righties, he hasn’t been nearly as good over his career as Jeffers has been. Against lefties, Jeffers has crushed, with a wRC+ of 125, which is really good for anybody, but especially for a catcher. Hopefully, he can thrive getting more of those platoon matchups while continuing to be a very good defensive catcher. If he does, the Twins could have a big offensive advantage at catcher, making their lineup dangerous enough to really contend for a division title.

This offseason has been frustrating. A couple of nice marginal signings in Joey Gallo and Christian Vásquez, both of which I’m kind of a fan of. But the Twins talked for months about their desire to bring back Carlos Correa and made him a sizeable, yet somewhat uncompetitive offer to return, and certainly were never going to get to the final $315 million number he signed for. They should’ve done just about everything they could to retain his talent and leadership, though because there are a lot of good things too look forward to with this team. They have very solid homegrown depth throughout the lineup and a fairly good group of 8 pitchers, who will give them a chance to win just about every day, but they lack the star power needed to really contend for anything more than an AL Central title. Depth on Offense On the offensive side of the ball, the Twins have very solid starting level players at every position, besides shortstop in their opening day lineup. In fact, according to Fangraphs ZiPS, by Dan Szymborski, the Twins are projected above average at every position, besides left field. The starters are good, but the reason I’m so optimistic about the roster is that in addition to those starters, the Twins bench players- which will include some most of Nick Gordon, Matt Wallner, Ryan Jeffers, and Gilberto Celestino all have talent to be tapped into. Gordon, coming off of a breakout season, will be sure to see plenty of game time; Wallner had a great season in the minors and first taste of the big leagues; Jeffers crushes lefties; and Celestino is still young and at times in both the majors and minors showed power that the Twins might be able to tap into. If they had signed Correa, Kyle Farmer would just be a platoon bat in this mix off the bench- another good role player to have. However, one of Matt Wallner and Gilberto Celestino, will start in AAA, with Kyle Garlick likely to be the Opening Day RHH corner outfield platoon bat. The Twins also have a strong group of prospects beyond Wallner and Celestino who will be able to make an impact in 2023- Brooks Lee, Royce Lewis, Edouard Julien, and Austin Martin. That organizational depth offensively is really exciting. It should enable them to better handle injury problems, especially if Nick Paparesta can help the team have just normal injury luck. The foundation is good enough to make one think that it was time to add (or keep) a superstar. They have a lot of really good players, but beyond the oft-injured Byron Buxton, they have no superstars. There are guys who could be in 2023, but no one is a bonified superstar beyond Buxton. This depth of “really good” definitely could help the Twins be a solidly above average offense. But if you add in Carlos Correa (replacing Kyle Farmer at short, pushing him to a platoon utility role), with better health and some steps up, the offense would’ve had a chance to be once again a premier offense in the league, like we all enjoyed in 2019. 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th C Christian Vásquez Ryan Jeffers 1B Luis Arráez Alex Kirilloff José Miranda 2B Jorge Polanco Nick Gordon Kyle Farmer Edouard Julien* Austin Martin* 3B José Miranda Kyle Farmer Royce Lewis* Brooks Lee* SS Kyle Farmer Nick Gordon Royce Lewis* LF Trevor Larnach Kyle Garlick Nick Gordon Matt Wallner CF Byron Buxton Nick Gordon Joey Gallo Gilberto Celestino* RF Joey Gallo Matt Wallner Alex Kirilloff DH Alex Kirilloff Byron Buxton Luis Arráez Starting Pitching Depth/Strong Bullpen The Twins also have strong depth in the rotation, and again lack that star power. However you want to label each guy, the first 5 starting pitchers is a group of 2s and 3s. If they start with a 6-man rotation, that would arguably also apply to Winder, who seems likeliest to win that 6th starter job, barring the addition of say, Johnny Cueto. They also have Varland and Woods Richardson ready to pitch when they are needed, which I’m sure won’t take long. They’ll also hope that Jordan Balazovic and Chris Paddack are ready to step in later in the season, although that seems unlikely for both guys. Having 8 guys that fall between “pretty good” and “fine” is a really good place to be, when one third of their games were started by Chris Archer and Dylan Bundy in 2022. The Twins had a .370 winning percentage in those games. In 2023, those starts should made by Ober, Winder, Varland, and Woods Richardson, which will give the Twins a chance in so many more games, raising the floor considerably. Just as with the offense, the starting staff is deep with good talent waiting in the wings, but lacks that high end starter. 1st Tyler Mahle 2nd Joe Ryan 3rd Sonny Gray 4th Kenta Maeda 5th Bailey Ober 6th Josh Winder 7th Louis Varland* 8th Simeon Woods Richardson* 9th Jordan Balazovic* 10th Chris Paddack* You finally have star power in the back of the bullpen. Jhoan Durán is one of the elite arms in all of baseball. Caleb Theilbar is an outstanding lefty reliever and Griffin Jax is a stud and seems to be getting better and trying to throw harder. Jorge López will hopefully return to closer to his 2022 Baltimore form, making for a really strong middle and backend of the bullpen, which will likely be added to in free agency. Jorge Alcalá is returning and Jovani Moran is poised to step up. The maybe can get more out of Trevor Megill or get breakouts from Cole Sands and Ronny Henriquez too. So, the bullpen has a great chance to be a strength and has that same depth as the rotation and offense do. Good Roster Devoid of a Second Superstar Overall, I think the Twins have a really good roster. It has really good players in almost every position, many of them under control for multiple years, although much less so in the rotation. The roster, as constructed, should have a chance to contend with Cleveland (projections system have the Twins just behind them and tied with Chicago). But the Twins could have been at least co-division favorites had they capitalized on the great depth they’ve built and the books they’ve worked hard to keep clean by signing Carlos Correa, which in the end they never tried hard enough to do. Maybe they still can acquire that elite talent via trade before the season or at the deadline. This front office is certainly unpredictable. If they do acquire that elite talent and have “normal luck”, we could see a fun season where people flood to Target Field, buy the new jerseys, and maybe even celebrate that elusive postseason victory.