MikeBates

Fantastic story and I'm sure it was an awesome experience. Every time I was lucky enough to be around Harmon, he was so warm and present. Alas, Wally got popped for serving underage fans a few years back and is an ex-beer man now.

1987 changed everything. For the Twins, for Minnesota, and for two nine year olds living in the north suburbs of St. Paul. On our podcast, This Week In Baseball History, in honor of their improbable championship 30 years ago this week, Bill Parker and I discuss how the team was assembled by, first, Calvin Griffith and, then, Andy MacPhail. We look at the rise of Tom Kelly from Major League washout to minor league player-manager to manager of baseball's World Champion Minnesota Twins. And we chronicle the 1987 campaign from Spring Training through their incredible postseason run.After that, we discuss what the club's success meant to the state of Minnesota and whether the '87 Twins really were, as they're often described, the "worst" World Series winners of all time. You can download or listen to the episode here. You can also find it, and our entire back catalog, on Apple Podcasts, Google Play, or wherever fine free podcasts are sold. Click here to view the article

Hey all, John and Seth suggested that I bring my latest venture to your attention here at Twins Daily, especially because, eventually, it's bound to be Twins-related.Although the Twins' forays into Asia have both been busts, that doesn't diminish the importance of Japan, Korea, and Taiwan as hotbeds of talent and enthusiasm for the game. And long before there was ByungHo Park or Tsuyoshi Nishioka, there was Masanori Murakami, the first Japanese player to make it to the Major Leagues. Murakami's success as a member of the San Francisco Giants in 1964 and 1965 are the subject of the latest episode of This Week In Baseball History, a new podcast produced by Mike Bates (hey, that's me!) and Bill Parker. His story is a great one that touches on the difficulties of the immigrant experience, from culture shock to prejudice to triumph, and reaches (spoiler alert) a pretty bittersweet conclusion. Our special guest in this episode, Rob Fitts, literally wrote the book on Mashi, and has great insight on how his time in America and his return to Japan affected the rest of his life, and why, after Murakami left the Giants, there wasn't another Japanese MLBer for another 30 years. Bill and I are back each week with a new topic. So far, we've covered the trial of the Chicago Black Sox, the deaths of Thurman Munson and Ed Delahanty, Mark McGwire's record-setting rookie season in 1987 (ooh, that's kind of Twins-related; we talk about Bert Blyleven), and more. You can find all the episodes of the podcast at This Week In Baseball History. Click here to view the article

I certainly won't argue that Pat Tabler deserved an All Star spot over Hrbek, because Herbie was great, beloved, and just better overall than Tabler. However, if I'm putting myself in McNamara's shoes, I'm probably also thinking about Tabler's performance in 1986, when he hit .326 and finished 4th in the AL batting race. In a batting average-driven age, I have little doubt that McNamara thought highly of Tabler's talents. That said, Carter was also fantastic in 1986 (.302/.335/.526, 29 homers, leading the AL with 121 RBI), so I really don't understand how he gets left off in favor of Tabler. Especially since he spent so much time at 1B in '87, and with Brett, Evans, and even Seitzer able to play there as well. It's not like they were shorthanded at the position. So, to sum up: Yes, Hrbek would have been a better choice than Tabler, but it's easy to see what McNamara was trying to do even if he was misguided.

Definitely not my point. There's plenty to talk about, even if Spring Training is completely uninteresting.

Yesterday, Seth wrote more than 1700 words about spring training (1735; I counted), God bless him. I’m glad he has the patience for that stuff, because I sure don’t. We focus on spring training because there’s nothing else to focus on that matters. But, really, when we pretend that the outcomes matter even a little, we’re generally kidding ourselves. Kidding ourselves like I was last week when I speculated that Ryan Sweeney might have a shot to make this team. In retrospect, of course he doesn’t. I was (and presumably remain) an idiot who was hoping that there was at least a little drama this spring. But, in reality, 24 of the 25 roster spots were essentially preordained coming into camp, with eleventy billion pitchers fighting it out for the last spot in the bullpen. A spot that probably won’t be worth more than a win above replacement over the course of 2016.Spring stats can also be incredibly misleading. Seth discussed Luke Hughes yesterday, for instance, and his knack for impressive March performances that won him a spot on the Twins’ bench in 2011 and 2012. Seth implies that the regular playing time Hughes received those springs helped him, and that the inconsistent playing time he got as a Twin disrupted his rhythm and prevented him from being a success. With all due respect, I think that’s ridiculous because it ignores who Hughes was facing and the context in which he was facing them. As Seth himself points out, even the greatest pitchers of our generation use spring training to work out the kinks, and couldn’t give a damn if some replacement-level Aussie takes them deep on the fourth slider in a row. Moreover, Hughes was also getting plenty of plate appearances against the Double- and Triple-A pitchers in the same boat he was. When Hughes got to the majors, he performed exactly like you’d expect a hacktastic middle infielder would. Oh, spring training is important; don’t get me wrong. Guys need the time to get back in shape after the offseason. As Seth points out, guys who have not been healthy need an opportunity to show that they’re recovered. But it’s essentially a tune-up. A four week long Leap Day. Nothing anybody does really matters, unless they get hurt. And none of the decisions a good club makes in March is going to have a significant impact on their regular season. I’m not complaining, however. After all, bad organizations are the ones that are swayed by unexpectedly strong spring performances. Take Luke Hughes, for instance. Or three years ago, when the Twins talked themselves into Aaron Hicks as the Opening Day center fielder at least in part because of his spring training, in particular his three-homer game. The club lost 96 games. That same year, the Orioles got excited by Jake Fox’s 10 spring training home runs and brought him north for Opening Day. They lost 93 games, Fox was DFA’d in June, and hasn’t ever appeared in the majors again. So, sure. Try to read the tea leaves. Marvel at Byung-ho Park’s three homers. Ponder whether Fernando Abad’s four innings are more meaningful than Taylor Rogers’ four innings or Ryan O’Rourke’s four innings. Worry about Ricky Nolasco’s 7.36 ERA or Byron Buxton’s .200 batting average. I can’t do it. None of it means anything to me. And it shouldn’t to the Twins either. Good teams have a plan and stick to it, and the lack of drama in Fort Myers is the best lack of news I’ve had in a long time. It's a sign that, maybe, the Twins are a healthier organization than I've given them credit for. Click here to view the article

It’s not likely to make a huge difference in the long run between whether the Twins win in 2016 or not, but the battle for the fourth and fifth outfield spots is shaping up to be interesting just a few games into spring training. With Byron Buxton the presumptive center fielder on Opening Day, Eddie Rosario in left and Miguel Sano in right, and the inevitable twelve-man pitching staff, Minnesota has room for one full- time outfielder and maybe a utility guy to come north. Let’s handicap the field at this point, assuming that two guys out of this group make the club:Ryan Sweeney Sweeney didn’t play in 2015, but is coming back as a 31-year-old. Once a top prospect in the White Sox organization (and considered one of the best BP hitters in baseball history), Sweeney never really clicked. Still, he brings a veteran presence (and we know how much the Twins value that), plays center field, and hits from the left side (to complement Buxton from the right). Through five games, he’s hit .333/.500/.400 in 16 plate appearances. Certainly, we shouldn’t take spring training performance at face value, but he’s also earning rave reviews according to Mike Berardino: Chances he'll come north? 75%. Almost nothing would shock me less. Sweeney’s the kind of guy the Twins could fall in love with, and I think one of the next two guys will flop hard enough that the Twins will want to keep him around. Not that that’s a bad thing. I think Sweeney’s still got the potential to be a useful ballplayer. Danny Santana Santana has the most plate appearances on the Twins so far through six spring training games. And while he’s only hitting .111/.105/.278, it’s clear that the Twins are heavily invested in him winning the job. It looks like Santana might not be willing to cooperate, but they’ll give him every opportunity to fail. And I do mean every single one, as he’s out of options. Plus, as a switch hitter who can play shortstop (in theory), he has added value. If he keeps this slow start up, however, perhaps he’d be a guy you could slip through waivers. Chances he'll come north? 60%. Far higher than his performance has earned. Oswaldo Arcia Left-handed, with incredible power, Arcia is a streaky hitter who runs unbelievably hot and cold. He would almost certainly be better served by a starting role, which would allow him to find his groove. Barring an injury, that’s not likely to happen. Arcia’s already made a bit of news by walking three times in one game over the weekend, something he’s done only once in the majors, and said afterwards that being more patient is a point of emphasis for him. We’ll see. Like Santana, he is out of options, and seems unlikely to slip through waivers. He’s been in the Twins’ doghouse for so long, however, that they may not care. Chances he'll come north? 40%. His power is undeniable, but the defense has been awful (though he's made some impressive defensive plays so far, he can’t play center field, and is seen as a disappointment. My guess is that either Santana or Arcia will get put on waivers. Santana’s positional flexibility gives him the edge, and if Sweeney makes the club, he and Arcia are both left-handed. Carlos Quentin Kind of the right-handed version of Arcia, but Quentin also has that veteran label that the Twins have loved in the past. He didn’t play last year, but has nine years in the league hitting .252/.347/.484 (120 OPS+). He’s also like Coach from Cheers (I’m an old person), in that it’s virtually impossible not to hit him with a pitch and he is incredibly delicate, topping 100 games played just three times in his career. The reviews of his performance so far are a little mixed: Quentin offers a little versatility in that he can also play first base, but God knows the Twins have enough guys who can do that right now, between Mauer, Park, Sano and Vargas. Chances he'll come north? 12.5%. Something would have to happen to one of the other 1B/DH/corner OF guys for Quentin to make the team, especially as a right-handed bat. His other best hope is that the Twins decide to send Buxton to Rochester for a month. Darin Mastroianni If Santana and Arcia had options left, I’d bet the Twins would find some way to keep Mastroianni around. He’s able to play all three outfield spots and is an accomplished base stealer. He also had a previous go-around with the Twins that ended in injury woes. He’s not a good player, but fits fine as a below-average backup outfielder. Chances he'll come north? 6.3%. Mastroianni is just behind too many people on the depth chart, and isn’t good enough to be more than an emergency option at this point. Max Kepler He’s a great young prospect who can handle center field for now, has tremendous plate discipline and good mid-range power to go with a strong hit tool. Kepler’s likely to be the best position prospect in the Twins’ minor league system at the start of the year. He’s had three singles in nine plate appearances so far. Chances he'll come North? 6.3%. There’s simply no chance of Kepler making this team unless Buxton doesn’t or someone gets hurt. The Twins need him to play everyday, and keeping him in a reserve role will stall the development of one of their future linchpins. Others Joe Benson is a 28 year old who has hit .202/.288/.302 at Triple-A. He’ll be depth at Rochester. No one short of Miguel Sano has Adam Brett Walker’s power, but his complete inability to control the strike zone means that he’ll spend almost all of 2016 in the minors. He’ll have to make incredible adjustments to find any success in the Majors. Click here to view the article

Yesterday, the Royals gave their star catcher/packmule/perpetual-thorn-in-the-Twins’-side Salvador Perez a five year contract extension through 2021. Perez had been operating under an incredibly team-friendly extension he signed after he had been in the league for less than a year, which guaranteed him just seven million dollars over five years and carried several very below-market team options. Even as the Royals ground their catcher into a sticky paste through overuse, it was easily one of the most team friendly contracts in the league in large part because the Royals invested in him so quickly after his promotion to the big leagues. The Twins are in a similar position to the Royals in 2011, when Kansas City first committed to Perez, with several young players with less than a full year of experience. Are any of them worth signing to a similar deal, and would any of them take it? Let’s take them one-by-one.Byron Buxton There’s no getting around how awful Buxton was last year in his relatively short exposure to the majors, hitting just .209/.250/.362 with six walks and 44 strikeouts in 138 plate appearances. Still, you could see flashes of the brilliance that has made him a top-2 prospect in each of the last two years, and his minor league production certainly supported the notion that he’s a future All Star. Would you sign him to a Perez deal? Yes. Ultimately, Buxton is still more likely to hit his peak than not, and his strikeout rate compares to other 21-year-olds like Harmon Killebrew, Reggie Jackson, Anthony Rizzo, Matt Kemp, Giancarlo Stanton, Justin Upton, and Jose Canseco, who struggled in their first exposure to MLB pitching, especially when you consider the high strikeout era we’re currently in. Miguel Sano No Twins rookie has had Sano’s level of success with the bat since Tony Oliva, as Sano hit .269/.385/.530 with 18 homers in 335 plate appearances. There simply is no doubt that Sano is going to hit. But he’s also a man with serious questions about where he’ll play and how well he’ll play there. Bill Parker talked on Monday about how there is no real precedent for a player of Sano’s size heading to the outfield at such a young age. We have no idea if he’ll play a passable right field. Likewise, even if Trevor Plouffe were not blocking him, there are legitimate questions about whether he could stay at third base. And first base and designated hitter seem to be taken for the next couple of years by Joe Mauer and Byung-Ho Park. Would you sign him to a Perez deal? I would, but just barely. By the time the deal was complete, Sano would be free to play first base and, barring catastrophic injury, will still be a force at the plate. Eddie Rosario Rosario debuted in May and finished as the Twins’ regular left fielder. He showed good mid-range power, smacking 13 homers and 46 total extra base hits, including a league-leading 15 triples and very good defense at a pretty vital position. He also walked just 15 times with 118 strikeouts in 474 plate appearances, and hit .267/.289/.459 overall as a 23 year old. Would you sign him to a Perez deal? No. His inability to control the strike zone is a huge red flag for me, as is his lack of a minor league track record. I think Rosario is talented enough to be worth that kind of a commitment from the Twins, but I also think there’s a high enough chance that he will completely implode and pull a Danny Santana that I wouldn’t want to put my team on the hook for it. Max Kepler Kepler won the Eastern League MVP award for Chattanooga at 22 years old, and debuted in September, getting just seven plate appearances. He’s a consensus top 50 prospect in the majors, but is unproven. Would you sign him to a Perez deal? Given that 2015 was his first real success at any level, and the first year he stayed fully healthy, no. I have more faith in him over the long term than I do in Rosario, however. Tyler Duffey Duffey seems destined to make the rotation in 2016 after a strong 3.10 ERA and 3.24 FIP with 53 strikeouts and 20 walks in 58 innings across 10 starts last year. Indeed, Duffey’s FIP led the Twins among pitchers who lasted at least 30 innings. Would you sign him to a Perez deal? God no. Young pitchers exist to break your heart. Duffey’s ceiling is still too low, and the injury risk for just about any young starter is simply too high. Jose Berrios Berrios hasn’t even debuted yet, but as the Twins’ best pitching prospect in ages, I guess we should discuss him. Would you sign him to a Perez deal? No, for the same reason as Duffey. Look, no one has been on the Berrios bandwagon as long as I have, but there simply is too much unpredictability in young arms to ever consider something like that. Would any of these guys take a Perez-like deal though? Knowing the same thing we do about the risks of being a pitching prospect, it wouldn’t surprise me if Berrios or Duffey would be open to such a deal. Similarly, Max Kepler might not be willing to bet on his ability to stay healthy over the long term. Rosario, given his success as a rookie, would probably be likely to turn an offer down. Plus, he seems like the kind of guy who would have plenty of confidence in his own ability. As for Buxton and Sano (and, to a lesser extent, Berrios), I don’t think they have the same incentive to sign that Perez did in 2011. Keep in mind that Perez signed out of Venezuela in 2006 for just $65,000, much of which would’ve had to go to his agent and trainers (the international signing community is a wretched hive of scum and villainy). He was never considered a top 100 prospect by any major organization. Comparatively, Buxton signed as the number two overall choice for a $6 million bonus. Sano signed out of the Dominican Republic for a record $3.15 million. Berrios got $1.55 million. These guys have already received life-changing money and have far less incentive not to bet on themselves. Plus, they’ve got pedigrees that reinforce the idea that they’re going to be stars. The story of Salvador Perez is the story of a young player with incredibly little leverage and little track record, but with a team that believed in him. Congratulations to the Royals for knowing what they had in 2011 and for locking Perez in again now. The Twins simply don’t have anyone in that position, where the needs of the player and the needs of the team align so perfectly. Click here to view the article

First of all, if you trade Park, you don't have to platoon Joe and Sano. Second, we have no idea how good Park is yet. Third, platooning Sano is, objectively and beyond all doubt, the dumbest idea I've ever heard.

My biggest concern with Sano in the outfield isn't his defense. Don't get me wrong; that is a concern, and I think his defense is likely to cost the Twins runs. That said, my bigger concern is how the running required in playing the outfield may lead to an elevated injury risk for Sano. Certainly, it's easier today (with almost every park boasting natural grass) than it was 10-15 years ago. But I don't know we have a real sense of what that does to such a massive person's knees. I'm terrified of an ACL tear or a Griffey-esque chronic hamstring problem. That said, if he can just stick it out for two or three seasons, the Twins will be able to shift him to 1B by the time he's a disaster out there, as Bill notes.

I'm not sure why you feel it's insulting. This isn't a referendum on you. Nowhere did I say that they don't care or don't try. But I think there's a natural tendency not to rock the boat once you get too comfortable in a position. And I think that's where a lot of the Twins' front office lives. There's no one to impress anymore. There's no desperation. Again, that's my interpretation. You're welcome to disagree and to present counterexamples that might support your point.

Seth, are you writing under a pseudonym now?

Listen, Comrade, the People's Ministry long ago decreed that batting average was strictly a bourgeois statistic meant to minimize the contributions of the proletariat to winning games of baseball. You have been warned. Now get back into line for your Tony O's Cuban sandwich, the sandwich of The People!

Just to be clear, I'm not saying the Twins should have traded Trevor Plouffe. However, every indication we've gotten from the club, and by rumor hounds around the league, is that they never even put him on the market to see what was available. They made the decision going into the offseason not even to look. And that's what's inexcusable.

On Monday, Bill Parker wrote on this very site about the Twins’ payroll, and about how complaints about the Twins’ relatively low payroll never seem to get past the surface, saying, He demands that we “show our work” and implies, essentially, that the Pohlads opening up their wallets wouldn’t have made enough of a difference to save the Twins from their awful finishes, and thus probably were right to hold onto their money. On the one hand, I agree and sympathize with that point. After all, no amount of realistic free agent spending would have helped from 2011-2014. It is, indeed, far too easy to pin all the team’s struggles on their refusal to spend like the team in a mid-sized market that they ultimately are. Especially since the Twins did open up their wallet in both the 2013-2014 offseason and the 2014-2015 offseason. But they only opened it wide enough for Phil Hughes, Ricky Nolasco, and Ervin Santana. And as great as Hughes’s 2014 worked for all involved, I think it’s pretty safe to say that the reasonable expectation for all three starters was that they’d be acceptable mid-rotation starters at best. All told, the Twins are going to spend $34.8 million, or roughly a third of their payroll, on these three pitchers with limited upside. And they paid essentially the going rate for all three of them. Now, don’t get me wrong, signing Hughes or Santana or, hell, even Nolasco isn’t enough to hamstring even a team that pretends they can’t spend money, like the Twins. However, Minnesota stacked these signings on top of one another, reducing their flexibility this year to the point where there isn’t room for more than one of higher-upside, lower-salary guys like Tyler Duffey, Trevor May, or Jose Berrios in the starting rotation (and, even then, it probably necessitates shifting Nolasco to the bullpen). The inherent problem with the Twins’ spending isn’t the lack of it. It’s the systemic problems that seems to pervade the organization: complacency. The Twins have a profound lack of ambition in virtually everything they do. Rather than doing something radical and difficult, the team invariably takes the path of least resistance. Instead of attempting to sign a single free agent starter with a higher upside at some point over the last three years (like a Jordan Zimmermann, a Jon Lester, or a Johnny Cueto), and maybe a relative lottery ticket in Hughes, the Twins took small bites at the apple. Rather than attempt to bolster the club at the trade deadline last year with a big acquisition, they only acquired Kevin Jepsen (which, admittedly, worked far better than it should have). Rather than preparing themselves for another season as a contender in 2016, the Twins held pat, adding two players while leaving the bullpen almost entirely untouched. Rather than exploring the market for Trevor Plouffe, they just move Miguel Sano to a position he’s never played before. I don’t know what causes this kind of complacency. Maybe it’s having an undemanding ownership, though I certainly prefer the Pohlad’s silent leadership to Jeffrey Loria or Arte Moreno’s meddling. Maybe it’s having such a stable front office, where everyone holds onto their jobs and the only way to move up is when someone else leaves for another organization. Maybe it’s a media landscape and a fanbase that’s more eager to criticize players than the leadership who doesn’t put them in a position to succeed. But ultimately, it will prevent the club from seizing opportunities available to it. Maybe that's a postseason berth in 2016, or a chance to be a World Series favorite in 2018, or the ability to stay relevant as the window of contention begins to close sometime in the distant future. Anyway, in response to Bill, I don’t feel particularly compelled to “show my work” when it’s not at all clear that the Twins are doing much of their own.

To say that projections have "no reliability and no validity," old nurse, is simply not correct. The whole point of designing projection systems is so that they can provide relatively reliable and accurate data that represents a snapshot of a club's overall quality. That said, individual teams and players do out- and under-perform these projections, and the likelihood of them doing that are built into the models for each system. But, taken as a whole, the projections tend to jive with the performance of clubs on the field. In fact, more interesting than simply pointing and yelling that any given system is wrong is actually taking the time to figure out what happened that led to a "miss." Like last year, when the Twins got crazy lucky with chaining together hits early in the season and jumped out to a hot start. It's that unpredictability, especially when we can project so much that's going to happen, that makes baseball fun and worth watching in the first place.

If you’re a pessimist like me, you look at the PECOTA projections released by Baseball Prospectus yesterday and you see a confirmation in everything you’ve suspected this offseason. You see a team who has done nothing to build on its surprising run in 2015 and, in turn, has slipped to the bottom of a competitive AL Central division. You think about a thoroughly mediocre starting rotation led by Ervin Santana, Phil Hughes, and Kyle Gibson and you resign yourself to falling behind early. You think about the bullpen, populated with retreads and low upside plays like Casey Fien and Fernando Abad and you shudder about holding onto leads. You see an offense with potential, but one that will struggle to reach base. My low expectations for the Twins are probably a defense mechanism, preventing me from being disappointed in a bad year, and heightening my enjoyment of a surprise run. But it’s not fun to be doom and gloom all the time. There are reasons for hope in these projections. Let’s look at them in some detail: The trade for John Ryan Murphy works out. Baseball Prospectus seems Murphy as being worth a win in 2016 while playing 60 percent of the time behind the plate. That’s not great, of course. That said, it’s light years better than Kurt Suzuki’s projection and also better than PECOTA thinks Aaron Hicks will do for the Yankees. Eddie Rosario’s playing time This is counter-intuitive, given that PECOTA thinks Rosario will hit just .250/.280/.401 and will be more than a win below replacement while playing 85 percent of the time. First, it’s important to note that this projection is entirely reasonable for a guy who struggled in the minors and who had a .289 OBP last year with a 15/118 BB/K ratio and whose slugging was inflated by 15 triples (which will be difficult to repeat). Now, Rosario could certainly outperform that quite easily with even a slight improvement in his strike zone judgement, but I don’t doubt the numbers BP came up with. However, if Rosario is only hitting .250 with a .280 OBP, there simply is no way that he keeps his job. The only reason he played as much as he did in 2015 is that he was hitting .290 at the end of July. If he doesn’t start off hot, he’ll get shuffled to Rochester like Danny Santana and Kennys Vargas did, in favor of Max Kepler. No matter what happens, Rosario’s position won’t be as bad as BP thinks it will. They're sleeping on Eduardo Escobar To put it simply, Baseball Prospectus hasn’t caught up to Escobar yet, who has provided league average offense and good defense at a premium position, when he’s been allowed to play there over the last two years. Instead, PECOTA pegs him as a replacement level shortstop. Now, Escobar’s on-base percentage is never going to be good, but it can be just ok enough that, when paired with his defense and his mid-range pop, he is a two or three win player. Trevor Plouffe is not a replacement-level third baseman I have no idea what PECOTA is doing here, pegging Plouffe to be worth less than a win. By their own metrics, he’s been worth in excess of two wins in each of the last two years. Assuming he’s going to more than halve his production just when he turns 30 makes no sense to me. Where the hell is Jose Berrios? For some reason, Baseball Prospectus has projected that Ricky Nolasco is going to part of the starting rotation and doesn’t think that Jose Berrios is going to throw any innings for the Twins in 2016. Barring injury, there’s simply no chance of that happening. Berrios will be up in June at the latest and will get in at least 100 innings for a club desperate for some upside on the mound. Depending on how he adjusts, Berrios could be worth between one and two wins for the club after he debuts, especially as he pushes a less-deserving arm to the bullpen or back to Rochester. Now, it’s not all good news. PECOTA, for instance, projects Byron Buxton to be worth four and a half wins and to play 85 percent of the time in center field. I’m finding it increasingly hard to believe that the Twins will commit to Buxton out of spring training, and there’s a good chance that any kind of a slow start will exile him to Rochester until late June. If that happens, the Twins will lose a ton of value on defense, and probably on offense as well, especially if they try to make do with Danny Santana, Oswaldo Arcia, and/or Carlos Quentin in his place. Enough, probably, to give back almost everything they're going to gain from the rays of hope I outlined above. Sorry to end on such a bummer. But I did warn you; it's my nature.

In the wake of MySpace founder Tom Anderson’s offer to pay for Tim Lincecum to return to the Giants, other celebrities have been similarly urging their hometown nines to make moves, and offering to foot the bill. We, at Twins Daily, have intercepted one such offer: Seems legit.