halfchest

It's not ridiculous at all to say he would be better off with a 3-5 year deal averaging 15-20 million than a 1 year 17.8 million deal. If he regresses or has a bad injury, he won't likely see anything near that. He could put up another year like 2019 and make more too. Just saying the logic isn't that he's being underpaid this year, but that he likely could have locked in long term security this offseason had he not signed with QO.

I was kind of thinking this same thing. While acknowledging the age difference and some other differences pointed out I was asking myself would I rather have Wheeler and keep Brusdar or have Donaldson and Maeda? Assuming had we signed Wheeler to a 20+ million per year deal Donaldson would have been off the radar. I'll take the latter. Plus the fact he's been successful in the bullpen to me is a nice transition here if he does fall off as a starter over the last year or 2 of his contract. Could also transition to bullpen for playoffs if needed and/or if we develop some of our young pitching prospects.

I am curious what next years draft class is looking like at this point? Any Bryce Harpers out there or are we looking at a likely top 3-5 that are interchangeable? Either way, I don't really want to see the team tank but I am hopeful they will sell off a few veteran pieces to bolster the farm system even further and possibly open up a little cash for future seasons.

I'll counter your small sample with a smaller sample! [table] [thead] SplitGPAABRH2B3BHRSBCSBBSOSO/WBAOBPSLGOPSTBGDPHBPSHSFIBBROEBAbiptOPS+sOPS+[/thead] 1st PA in G as SP161441371642933004389.50.307.331.482.81366012001.406115128 2nd PA in G as SP151261171234612005244.80.291.317.410.72848310300.3409499 3rd PA in G as SP1389801321313009111.22.263.337.438.77535100012.273107103 4th+ PA in G as SP111000000000[/td][td].000.000.000.0000000000.000-100-100 1st PA in G as RP321321201330613008374.63.250.305.392.69747121110.3338699 [/table]Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table Generated 12/23/2015. ok, looking at that, I'm assuming it's not going to work but I guess I will have to post and cross my fingers. Essentially it shows your information on May getting worse each time through the lineup was drawn out more due to his time as a reliever and his 2014 stats. I think May either ends up as a top reliever which is valuable in todays market or transitions back to starter where he may be a good mid rotation guy, maybe even a #2 if all things work out well. That said, I agree with the overall premise. Milone is a very good but just not sexy starter. I'll be very interested to see how his career goes the rest of the way.

true, but main point is we're overvaluing Hicks, after a .597 and .615 OPS in 2013 and 2014. Then in 2015, he had the same numbers except for one very small sample in the month of July. Other than that month he's a medicore to bad hitter. So while John Ryan Murphy may not be much, it says something that the Yankees called him up as a 22 year old and he put up respectable numbers in 2015 as a backup catcher both offensively and defensively. I'm not saying it's a slam dunk but I think some need to step back and take a realistic look at Hicks.

I said it in another thread but Murphy has a better career ops in the majors than hicks does and has done it as a part time guy not getting consistent at bats and being 2 years younger. Add in the weakness at catcher and its a good trade. Great analysis

or 3. Twins fans are overvaluing their own players. The catcher they got has been a better hitter at the Major League level than Aaron Hicks and has been doing it at a younger age and as a backup (which I tend to think is harder when not getting consistent at bats). HIcks may have more upside but really, he's had one good month as a hitter in the majors over the past 3 years. Murphy has a good shot to be a league average starting catcher offensively and defensively. Trade made sense and now the Twins don't have to give up top prospects for Lucroy or pay too much for Wieters.

I'm intrigued, not the splash I was hoping for at catcher but it also means we can truly consider keeping Plouffe. A quick random lineup gives me the following by midseason. Buxton Dozier Mauer Sano Byung Ho Plouffe Rosario Escobar Murphy Figure in a bench of Kepler, Santana, Arcia/Vargas, and Suzuki. That ain't half bad. Please be kind, this was off the cuff with very little thought put into it.

Sooo . . at what point does he start realistically pushing Correa for ROY honors? He's got him by about .150 points in OPS, lets say he keeps it up and hits another 5-6 homers before the end of the season. I realize he's not playing defense but writers don't seem to factor in defense that much anyhow. Gotta think he's at least turning some heads as he's been one of the best hitters in the game since his callup.

I tend to agree that May should have remained in the rotation but I also see why the Twins chose him at that time, it was definitely a tough one to make. Hughes and Santana obviously aren't getting demoted at that point, hughes has been mediocre this year and Santana was our big acquisition no way he's going straight into the pen. Gibson was our best pitcher at the time IMO even though he has had some bumps since the break. Pelfrey while he had horrible peripherals had about a 3.00 ERA and sorry can't argue too much with results even if they're smoke and mirrors. Milone also was on a tear after destroying AAA for a month and had 5 starts up in the majors of sub 3.00 ERA and has been solid overall this year. So it wasn't an easy decision by any means, glad that it's at least working out to fix up the bullpen. May will be a starter again next season, and I'm not concerned about half a season in the bullpen messing with him at all.

While I agree, there are different measures of value than Metrics and money. So long term, yes you are absolutely right that starters are worth more, they cost more as free agents, they generally will provide more value assuming they can pitch the same or close to it as a starter vs. a reliever. However, looking at value, you also have to factor in who is the replacement. Since the Twins have a logjam of pitching and overall it has been solid this year with some hiccups overall. Realistically May is being replaced by Pelfrey or Milone both of who have had solid years if you look at the results. Which in the end, for this year, is all that really matters right? We can argue about Santana but it's a small sample size and with his history he actually does deserve a long leash. Point being, in the rotation, as much as we like his peripherals and he is probably the better pitcher, the only guys he was likely to replace have actually had better real results that being ERA. Therefore, him being in the rotation you can argue wouldn't have been any better than Pelfrey or Milone based only on the actual outcomes of their starts this year. In the bullpen however, we have had a number of guys faltering that would be in the bullpen if May were not. Where he is providing a very good late inning option instead of a mediocre to bad middle reliever. Therefore he is providing a ton of value to the team in the bullpen this year. Again, I'm going with actual results (ERA) instead of future predictors/value and looking at replacement value. Right now, May is more valuable to the pen because he's getting rid of a much worse player I the pen where in the rotation he would be replacing someone who has had similar results.

Tyler Jay looking better and better, very solid overall numbers minus the mediocre ERA

I do believe May will get one more shot at starting mainly because as people have said he did nothing to pitch himself out of the rotation other than not being a highly paid veteran and no one else pitched themselves out of the rotation. Had Hughes injury come a bit sooner he likely would have slotted right back into a starting role. It's almost comical that his ERA was starting to come more in line with his advanced metrics like FIP xFIP right before he was demoted. He had a nice run of four very good starts in June right before the demotion but looking at his splits he actually had better fip and xfip earlier in the year. At this point, it makes sense to keep him in the bullpen for this season which I don't think anyone is questioning. between Jepsen, May, Perkins, and now Cotts we have an adequate and as we saw last weekend sometimes dominant pen. While we need our starters to keep it up I'll be happy knowing we have a good shot of keeping a lead after the 6/7th innings.

Good to see Gordon continuing to hit. His month to month splits look great after a horrible May OPS by month April .652 May .538 June .711 July .772 August .902 Nice to see the improvement month to month. 19 is pretty young for midwest league right?

I know it's been discussed before but I'd like to know what are the scouting reports on Walkers defense? Is he average in the corners at least? That would go a long way towards his ability to be a major leaguer. If he can provide at least average to above average defense in the corners he could be a very good 4th OF/DH for the Twins as long as 2 of Hicks/Rosario/Buxton stay with the team. That way we dont' need a shane robinson type sitting on the bench but we have a guy that can come in and tie or win a game with one swing of the bat.

Both guy actually have 2018 options so as long as they keep pitching it would be for 3+ years. I would do that no problem, especially if it includes taking back Nolasco's contract as part of the deal. I think people also need to realize that Kimbrel is not just a very good reliever but he may be the best reliever in the game right now. Plus with Perks cheap contract we can afford to pay his big contract. Again, I just wonder who would end up closing games if we got him.

That's quite the low ceiling, a likely outcome but his ceiling? really? Why do you say his defense has been declining? I haven't seen any reports on this and that's really all we can go by in the minors for the most part. The fact he's been playing all three outfield positions makes me doubt this claim as well. If you said that he may just end up as a no power guy who plays 1B and Corner outfield, I may agree that is a possible, maybe even likely outcome but his ceiling is much higher than a .725 OPS guy who can only play 1B/DH. He was expected to take a bit longer to develop than other prospects due to his background and now we're starting to see him flourish. Hey may never be a 20-30 HR guy but that doesn't mean he's 2015 Joe Mauer all of a sudden. I do agree though that I'd almost rather trade him than Arcia because as you point out, we'd be selling high on Kepler and low on Arcia. I think he'd bring more in a trade because he does have a high ceiling and now it's translating to the field in AA.

Agree and and after just glancing at Kimbrel's numbers, he's far and away the better pitcher on pretty much every level. That said I bet we would keep Perk in the closer role at least until he falters. That might be a good thing because it opens us up to using Kimbrel in the highest leverage situations without being stuck in only the 9th inning. I guess we can worry about it if it were to happen, which it probably won't

Count me in the group that would not be that upset by no major moves. I'm hopeful that at the very least they do something to pick up a decent relief arm or two. Question though, say the Twins landed Kimbrel . . . who would close? Perkins because he's our boy or Kimbrel because he's well probably even a little bit better. Either way, what a crazy backend we would have for the next few years. Damnit Jeremy, you've got my head spinning thinking of all the possibilities with San Diego

hmm, not sure what to think of this. Painting it as a 3/33 deal due to offloading Nolascos contract makes it easier to stomach. However, I'd rather give up a bit more and get a younger bullpen arm that has some control left. Kimbrel would be spendy both in dollars and prospects I assume. It's another interesting story line to follow for the next couple of days though.

I think Reyes is negative value for Colorado. They may get something for him but at his age and recent performance his contract is more than what he would get as a free agent. If they eat some of the cost ten they may get a decent prospect or two. I would bet that Toronto insisted on including Reyes to balance things out financially in the deal. Our comparable would have been to send Nolasco I suppose. Mauer isn't realistic to be dealt due to his no trade so Nolasco would have been our best way to balance out money.

I just can't see giving up that much for a couple rental guys. I don't see them changing us into world series contenders but definitely give us a better shot at staying in the playoff run. I would love to take a shot at both for a much cheaper price. Wieters just doesn't seem like a good rental target either given how he's played coming back from injury this year. For the right price and if the plan is to try to resign him after the year (saving us from giving up a draft pick) then I can see it. The Twins shouldn't be considering giving up big prospects for guys that will only help us one year. I'd rather we look to Tampa Bay and try to buy one of their relievers with a few years of control if they're really considering giving up Arcia and/or Kohl Stewart

Have we considered tulowitzki at all? I haven't seen any coverage of that possibility on this site and it's kind of pathetic. He's a perfect fit and I'm sure we could get him for Brian Duensing and a PTBNL or two

MLBtradederumors mentioned the availability of some Tampa Bay relievers in Boxberger and McGee that could both be great for bolstering our bullpen both this year and in the future. They might cost a bit more than we'd prefer to give up but might be worth it to solidify the backend of the bullpen.

May was especially on a role before the demotion and was a bummer to see him demoted. At the same time I don't know how you pull Pelfrey at that time as I believe he still had a sub 3.00 ERA, peripherals be damned. That said, now there is plenty of evidence that the luster has wore off, hoping after the next trip through the rotation they make the switch.