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kasotamatt

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  1. Like
    kasotamatt reacted to Nick Nelson for an article, Twins 2022 Position Analysis: Catcher   
    Projected Starter: Ryan Jeffers
    Likely Backup: Gary Sánchez
    Depth: José Godoy, Caleb Hamilton
    Prospects: Alex Isola
    THE GOOD
    The Twins are all-in on Ryan Jeffers. By trading Mitch Garver and Ben Rortvedt on successive days, the front office decimated its high-level catching depth. Yes, all the moving and shaking did bring back Gary Sánchez, but he's an occasional (at best) catcher with one year of team control remaining. 
    Jeffers is the guy. Clearly the Twins have been heartened by his performance through two big-league seasons and are ready to commit.
    The 24-year-old former second-round draft pick rose fast through the system, playing only 167 games over a season-and-a-half in the minors before being summoned from the alternate site in 2020 to help the Twins. He has since shown to be a quality defender with good power, equating to 1.1 fWAR over 111 games for the Twins. He was Twins Daily's pick for team Rookie of the Year in 2020.
    Overall, defense has definitely been Jeffers' calling card in the big leagues. He runs the staff with confidence, bringing good mechanics and instincts behind the plate. His pitch-framing stands out as well above average, ranking in the 74th percentile last year according to Statcast. 
    The bat is lagging behind the glove here, for sure, but given he's only 24 and followed an accelerated development path, it's reasonable to expect some offensive growth ahead. He slashed .286/.377/.452 in the minors, flashing solid discipline that will hopefully translate over time to the majors, and his power tool is definitely legit. 
    When Jeffers gets into one, the ball takes off. 
    The same can be said for his new backup. Sánchez is a masher, and a fair approximation of Garver at the plate. In fact, his All-Star campaigns in 2017 and 2019 were basically what you'd hope to see from Garver in a full season. Sánchez has 138 career home runs through age 28, leading all catchers since 2016,  and has been a reliable slugging force even when his offensive game has otherwise run astray.
    Defensive misgivings aside, it's nice to be able to plug Sánchez's threatening bat into the catcher position from time to time.
    THE BAD
    Even before they traded Garver and Rortvedt, catching depth was an area of uncertainty in the Twins system. No one outside of the top three had any MLB experience, Garver was running out of team control, and Jeffers was a question mark.
    Make no mistake: Jeffers is still a question mark, having seen his OPS+ drop from 119 in 2020 to 83 in 2021. It's just that he now bears a much higher level of expectation and dependence. 
    Sánchez might be a comparable bat to Garver, but he represents a huge drop-off defensively. It's actually pretty hard to make sense of Minnesota's plan in light of their commitments to quality defense, and timeshares behind home plate to reduce wear-and-tear.
    Are they actually going to let Sánchez catch a sizable share of the team's games? Really?!
    His defensive issues are well known, especially among Yankees fans. Sánchez has led the league in errors at catcher three times, and allowed the second-most stolen bases of any backstop last year. His rigid movements and slow reactions lead to numerous costly mistakes; Sánchez ranks sixth among all active catchers in passed balls allowed.
    Here's a, er, "highlight" reel of his glovework: 
    He struggled so mightily in New York that some Yankees pitchers notoriously asked not to have him behind the plate in games they started. That doesn't seem like a great situation for a Twins staff that expects to usher in multiple young pitchers this year. 
    Despite their claims otherwise, I find it difficult to believe the Twins are going to follow through on the current plan. But until something changes, Sánchez is lined up for a big portion of work behind the plate, and we are one Jeffers injury or demotion away from him being the primary guy there. Ack.
    To make up for the loss of Rortvedt, the Twins claimed José Godoy off waivers from San Francisco on Thursday, infusing at least some semblance of experienced depth behind Jeffers and Sánchez. 
    Godoy is actually quite similar to Rortvedt in profile – a mid-20s, no-hit defensive specialist who's gotten his feet wet in the big leagues. He's a reasonable swap-in that at least gives the team some peace of mind in terms of contingencies. There are players further down in the system like Caleb Hamilton and Chris Williams with the potential to reach the majors relatively soon, but they're not high-caliber prospects and could use more seasoning.
    THE BOTTOM LINE
    The Twins imploded their catching depth in order to unload Josh Donaldson's contract. The pipeline is very thin at this position and Sánchez is a year away from free agency, so there is a ton of pressure on Jeffers to entrench himself as a long-term fixture behind the plate.
    That's a bit of a scary proposition, since he's hardly established himself as a surefire MLB starting catcher. But it's a risk the Twins were willing to take as part of their offseason roster overhaul. 
    This team was in an enviable spot with two starting-caliber catchers under control for multiple seasons. Now they've got Jeffers and a pseudo catcher/DH in a walk year, followed by little assurance at one of the most attrition-filled positions in the sport. 
    Catcher now stands out as a glaring weakness for this franchise, unless Jeffers and Sánchez can both convincingly put their disappointing 2021 seasons behind them. 
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  2. Like
    Correa, who had only been linked to the Twins in the most daydreamy of scenarios (if that), put pen to paper on a 3-year, $105.3 million contract, making him the highest-paid infielder in MLB history. He will immediately slot in as the team’s starting shortstop and help form one of the league’s most dynamic up-the-middle trios alongside Jorge Polanco and Byron Buxton.
    The 2012 No. 1 overall pick lived up to the hype during his seven seasons with the Houston Astros, slashing .277/.356/.481 and slugging 133 home runs, culminating in a 5.8 fWAR performance last summer that netted him a top five finish in MVP voting. But his excellence isn’t secluded to the plate. He’s also pretty proficient with the glove, registering 12 outs above average in 2021 and 27 since Statcast was implemented in 2016. (He won the American League’s Platinum Glove last summer, joining Buxton as the only Twins to have brought home the award.)
    To put it bluntly: In a league replete with shortstop talent, Correa is without question among the best, if not the best all around.

    Baseball is not like other sports in that a supreme individual talent can single-handedly carry a team into World Series contention. One need not look any further than the Los Angeles Angels for proof. However, the signing of Correa lends even further credence to the Twins’ belief that they can compete not only for an American League Central title, but perhaps more this season.

    Correa’s signing coupled with the trades for Sonny Gray, Gio Urshela, and Gary Sanchez has transformed the Twins from a team with two starting pitchers and no clear plan for the future to one that is perhaps a single piece away from being a true threat in the A.L. And with rumors swirling that they have significant interest in Oakland A’s pitchers Frankie Montas and Sean Manaea — both of whom figure to be very gettable at the moment — that single piece may soon arrive.

    The Twins now boast a lineup consisting of three players — the aforementioned Buxton, Correa, and Polanco — who registered at least 3.9 fWAR last season, with Sanchez, Urshela, and Max Kepler having accomplished the feat in the past as well. Add in promising youngsters Alex Kirilloff, Ryan Jeffers, and Trevor Larnach as well as the ever-steady Luis Arraez and the Twins could have a lineup on par or greater than 2019’s much-beloved Bomba Squad.

    However, their offseason remains incomplete. The Twins still need to add at least one more starting pitcher as well as a bullpen arm or two. They could also use another veteran catcher to supplement Jeffers and Sanchez, neither of whom is considered a sure thing at the moment.

    At this point, there is little reason why the Twins shouldn't open the gates to their farm system to usher in a Montas-caliber pitcher. While they lack elite truly elite prospects — though many have made the argument that Austin Martin is — the overall depth of the Twins' system is undoubtedly enticing to other teams. They could part with multiple of their top 10 prospects and still be full of talent. As such, this is the exact moment in which they should be aggressively shopping their minor league prospects and it would come as a bit of a shock if they weren't.

    But despite the prolonged nature of the offseason and the periods of wondering what the heck they were up to, the patience of Derek Falvey and Thad Levine once again paid off. The Twins have their shortstop (albeit perhaps for only one season). The Twins have their top-end starting pitcher (and perhaps another on the way). The Twins have had a great offseason.

    Now all that can be done is to wait to see how they tie a bow on it all.
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    — Read more from Lucas here

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