Physics Guy

1) Santanta 2) Blyleven 3) Kaat 4) Perry 5) Viola 6) Pascual 7) Radke 8) Goltz 9) Nathan 10) Aguilera

From an article by Adam Kilgore of the Washington Post in which they talk about Davey Johnson being done after 2013: "Rizzo has said he wants Johnson’s successor to come from within the organization. Bench coach Randy Knorr appears to be the leading candidate, with first base coach Trent Jewett, Class AAA Syracuse Manager Tony Beasley and Class AA Harrisburg Manager Matt LeCroy also possibilities." I looked up LeCroy's record and he is 253-302 in four years between Low A and AA. He has yet to have a winning record. That doesn't necessarily mean he isn't a good candidate, but his record isn't very stellar. From my recollections of his time with the Twins he seemed to be a very level-headed, easy going guy. Interesting that all four managers in the NLCS and ALCS last year were former catchers.

No doubt that KLaw is the KOS (King of Snark) and is very opinionated, but why do you say he is extremely biased? I've been reading him for years and don't see it. He gets accused of east coast bias due to his ESPN affiliation, but I don't see it. He bases his opinions on performance and what he sees on the field. He does not work for a team so has no attachment to certain picks.

The difference is they only cost you money. Span costs less money but other assets as well. The "Would You pay him big money?" quote was in reference to Pagan. Agreed, but money is the issue for the Braves, Rays and some others. They have assets to trade and want to save money. Otherwise wouldn't they sign Bourn and Upton and be done with it?

Let's call him what he is: an above average starting CF with a team-friendly contract. We have no reason to dump his salary unless we get at least an average player in return that fills an area of need (SP or MI). Obviously supply and demand come into play, but there are several teams out there looking for a CF that doesn't cost per year what Span has coming the next two. His contract is for 11.25M over the next two years with a 9M optin (.5M buyout). Upton and Bourn are most likely going for over 10M per season. After that the next best is Pagan. Would you pay him big money?

Who do you propose we should listen to then? I'm sure KLaw has talked to multiple scouts who've seen Rosario play to couple with his own observations. It's not perfect, but it's among the best information sources available to those of us on the outside. I agree, from what I recall he has often mentioned that he talks to other scouts as well. He generally states when his opinion is based on what other scouts say versus what he has seen. Mostly his opinions are based on what he has seen because he is VERY confident in his judgment. He admits he comes off very snarky, but that is why I enjoy his chats.

Yeah, I didn't realize Lannan was making 5M. Definitely not worth that pricetag.

Does anybody realistically think we can get substance for Revere? He would be a fine stopgap between Span and Hicks for a year or so, but I just don't think he has much trade value. I would be shocked if the Mariners would give up any of those guys with Revere as the the key piece in the trade.

I like the idea of going after Danny Espinosa. He strikes out a ton, but is much cheaper than Uggla. Span + ??? for Espinosa and Lannan. Lannan isn't anything special but was a 6th starter for Washington. He would have been our #2 last year. Espinosa can play SS also and Lannan would at least provide a #4 or 5 starter (maybe). What say you?

I have so many things swimming in my head regarding all of the comments; many well thought out arguments. I was actually arguing with a colleague about Sano yesterday. I don't see the Twins accelerating his promotion for two reasons: 1) I agree that he probably needs to work on pitch recognition/hitting breaking pitches as evidenced from his K levels. 2) Primarily because the Twins are holding out that he can play 3B. He clearly is not ready to play 3B anywhere near the level needed in the majors. Harper flew through the minors because the decision was made to not keep him at a tougher defensive position. Remember he was originally a catcher. Boras wanted his path to the majors as short as possible. The Twins, in my opinion, are doing the right thing. Sano is much more valuable at 3B than he is at 1B, RF or especially DH. It's the same reason you keep Mauer at catcher as long as possible. As a 1B, Mauer's comparable is something akin to Mark Grace. As a C he's a future HOF. Keeping Sano at 3B will require extra time in the minors, but I think they need to decide this year if he indeed can stay at 3B.

I don't think it necessarily indicates a bad system. Buxton was regarded by some as the #1 overall prospect in last year's draft. He would have been top 5 in most organizations. Most of the new guys are in the bottom half of the list. I would agree that the fact that so many of the new guys are pitchers doesn't reflect well on our pitching in the minors, but then we already knew our pitching wasn't good. Part of the high rankings of this year's draft has to be because they were high picks, plus the luster hasn't worn off due to a couple of years in the system Their "warts" haven't started to show.

Absolutely nothing more to prove in AA? 69 games in AA is a pretty small sample size and he was a 21 year old in a league whose players have a median age of 24. I'd say starting in AA is reasonable with a promotion in May or early June. In another thread I had him projected as a starting OF for the Twins in 2014. I think that may be a bit aggressive. I could see him following a path similar to Cuddyer who had just over 100 AB with the Twins in both his 23 and 24 year old season and a semi-regular at 25. Cuddyer may have accelerated that a bit had he been moved to OF earlier.

OK, so I may have been wrong. A quick look (I may have missed a couple) on Cot's shows 11 OF and 9 SP signing $50M+ free agent contracts. There were however more SP signed to $50M extensions (8-4) - meaning they signed with current team before reaching FA. There just seems to be more team looking for SP than OF.

I realize this isn't quite the same, but it relates. If you are trying to value OF vs P, look at the FA contracts signed by players at those positions the past 5-10 years. Without actually digging in and looking, my guess is many more pitchers have signed $50M contracts than OF. Doesn't that indicate that teams value SP over OF? That is why we can't get Shields for Span alone. Having Bourn and Upton on the FA market doesn't help Span's value, although he should be a cheaper option.

Agreed that Texas blows us out of the water, but I've seen proposals that the Rangers would possibly go after Price if they offer Andrus. I think Price is going to get (pardon the pun) pricey for that franchise and I've read rumblings they may look to move him.

Let's not completely bash MacPhail. He must have had a little bit to do with the Orioles' turnaround. They did draft Machado and Bundy under his watch. I read an article somewhere recently about him. The interviewer was giving him some credit for the Orioles turnaround. Of course he was gracious about it but in the same vein said he was probably given more credit for the Twins' success than he deserved since much of the work in developing those teams was done before he arrived.

You can all keep arguing Shields vs Marcum all you want, but I'm with VodkaDave and want them both. They both have solid stats in their years in the AL East. The stats can be used to argue either way depending on which stats you cherry-pick to support your argument. The way the Twins do business, the only way they get two 10M starters is by shedding Span's contract. I think Shields is due around 10M and Marcum might get close to 10M (although I think his elbow issues may limit him). By shedding Span's 6+M contract it makes room for Baker also. They might be able to get all three for around $20M in additional salary (Shields+Marcum+Baker-Span). Whether TR is willing to do that, who knows? The big issue is what it would take in addition to Span to get Shields. If they can get him without touching their top 10 prospects, I could live with it. If they can somehow free a younger guy such as Minor or Hellickson, I'd prefer that but I'm not sure we can get pull such a trade off.

Maybe more likely mid-2014 or 2015.

Maybe this belongs in the "Hot Damn! Rub that Crystal Ball!! thread, but 2014 Twins OF: LF - Arcia/Revere CF - Hicks RF - Benson/Arcia Benson's ceiling is much higher than Revere's but his floor is also lower. At minimum I think he could be a valuable platoon guy since both Arcia and Revere are LH. Revere is arbitration eligible in 2014. I'm not sure he will be worth the increases in salary he will get. Revere's defense is well above average, but both Hicks and Benson are said to be above average to excellent in CF and should provide more punch at the plate. Of course all of this is wishful thinking.

I can't believe he would say such a thing. (sarcasm) Whether you like him or not, there's a reason why he's the top agent in the business. The guy knows how to squeeze money out of teams. He makes his mistakes, but he "wins" more often than not.

I thought the rest of you might enjoy this: http://espn.go.com/blog/sweetspot/post/_/id/30646/five-crazy-free-agent-ideas I got a good chuckle this morning. David Schoenfield suggests the Twins could sign both Kyle Lohse and Annibal Sanchez. He obviously isn't aware of the end of Lohse's tenure here nor knows Ryan very well. My guess is there is a less that five percent chance Ryan spends that kind of money.

I was also thinking Seattle might be a good trade target. Morneau plus an OF prospect might do it. With Morneau's contract I doubt he is enough. As John said at the beginning, anything we can get plus clearing his salary will help. Seattle definitely needs some offense.

I agree that they might have interest in Span, but in no way is that enough to seal the deal. Just a guess here, but Span, Arcia and Hermsen might do it, but that probably isn't enough.

If you want a SS from Texas, better to go after Andrus. They might listen regarding him. I was thinking the Twins should go after him. Then they would have a middle infielder actually capable of batting second (.350 OBP) with speed for the top of the order as Gardy likes it. I'm just not sure what the Twins could offer that would be acceptable to them.

If you are trolling it worked. You think Texas will give us arguably their top two prospects for a catcher who is trending out of the position and makes $23M? Keith Law has Profar as the #1 prospect in the minors overall. Jon Daniels would hang up the phone immediately if offered that trade. I'm skeptical he'd give Profar straight up for Mauer. I suppose you want them to trade Gardy for Washington too?