Physics Guy

Agreed, but 2/$15 is a little more than he is probably worth. Problem is TR is going to end up without a chair when the music stops if he isn't willing to overpay a little. There are still a large number of FA pitchers out there, but it sure seems as though TR is just waiting for guys like Edwin Jackson last year who get desperate and sign a favorable deal. You don't end up with the guys you necessarily want in that scenario. Maybe TR thinks they are all a dime a dozen and doesn't care who he ends up with as long as he can get three guys.

My guess: 1 of the following: Marcum, Blanton, McCarthy 1 of the following: Myers, Liriano, Saunders 1 of the following: Millwood, Correia, Bedard Pretty awe-inspiring,eh? I hope I am wrong and that one of the bottom three is replaced with Sanchez or Jackson.

Sorry jorgenswest, I missed the citation at the bottom. My bad.

What is your source for Runs Saved? I am very skeptical of a metric that says Span is significantly better than Revere in CF. The eye test doesn't support that conclusion (at least my eye doesn't). While the development of defensive metrics is a very worthwhile endeavor, we have to look upon them with some skepticism. The discussion is worth having, but it appears you have cherry-picked stats to support your argument. Span's UZR/150 last year was 9.6, Revere's was 18.6 (from FanGraphs). When discussing defense I think it's best to look at several stats. Also from what I understand, some defensive metrics are prone to vary significantly from year to year. Unfortunately, we don't have several years worth of stats for Revere.

I think Hanahan is exactly the type of player Ryan would bring in to be a platoon or guard against Plouffe regressing. He is cheap and is a lefty hitting option.

Boy we sure are quick to write off Plouffe as a 3B. He is a former SS who just this year moved to 3B. Do you remember what Koskie was like when he started? If he works at it I don't see any physical reasons why he can't be at least a league-average defensive 3B. Give him some time to transition to the position. His arm strength doesn't seem to limit him from being a 3B, but his range doesn't bode well for a switch to 2B. As much as I would love his bat at 2B, putting him there makes our middle infield defense even worse.

I hope the Twins decide on the Medlen route for Gibson rather than the Stasburg route. I would rather he starts in the pen and bring him along slowly to limit his innings.

Hendriks absolutely should have the #5 spot in the rotation. Outside of Gibson, he is the only prospect at SP with any sort of upside that is major league ready. Hendriks has nothing left to prove in the minors. His rate stats last year are comparable to Viola and Milton when they first came up, albeit they were a year younger. Milton and Viola both had more innings 172 and 126 vs 85 for Hendriks. I wish Gardy had just left Liam in the rotation the way Kelly did with Milton and Viola on crappy teams. Then maybe we would have a better idea of what we have. I just hope it isn't Kevin Slowey.

I could live with Myers OR Liriano, whichever will sign first for under 5M a year. Either one for 4-5M is preferable to signing Marquis for 3M. If Feldman is worth 6M, I'm not sure that will happen. Going on the premise that seems to be the prevailing opinion, that the Twins sign two FA and trade for one other pitcher, one of the two FA has to be better than that pair. If they sign both, the trade better be for a #1 or #2.

Wookie, you may be overestimating LaRoche's impact on our ability to trade Morneau. He was tendered the 1 year offer so signing him would cost the team a first or second round pick.

He should start in Cedar Rapids. If he earns it, he will be promoted to Ft. Myers mid-season. That gives him a shot at New Britain sometime the following season. We'll be lucky if he gets a cup of coffee at Target Field by 2015.

Brett Myers Age 29 Season: 223 IP, 180 K, 1.24 WHIP, 3.14 ERA Age 30 Season: 216 IP, 160 K, 1.31 WHIP, 4.46 ERA Going into his Age 32 season next year, I would gladly take what he did two years ago. Only Diamond outperformed that last year for the Twins. He's only three years removed from a season in which he finished 10th in the CYA voting. As for moving to the bullpen, I found this quote from a FanGraphs article: "Long term, it will be more important for the Astros to sort out their starting rotation than their bullpen. In a strange twist, that’s why it makes sense to move a present-tense resource in Myers to the bullpen — because doing so will help them figure out what they have among their bevy of mediocre pitching prospects. If one of them steps to the fore and proves he’s a Major League starter this year, the team will have gotten what they wanted from moving Myers to the pen."

Because his .283 BA the past three years in the minors and .265 in the majors clearly indicate that.

I'm fine with Myers, maybe at 2 years and no more than 9M. I could see one other pitcher (hoping Sanchez, expecting Marcum or Blanton) from the FA market and possibly a trade (Span or Willingham) for the third SP. Rotation would be Marcum, Myers, Diamond, Hendriks and player acquired for OF. Gibson starts in bullpen, much like the Braves did with Medlen. Sad part is I think it could end up being: Blanton, Myers, Diamond, Hendricks and Deduno. I REALLY hope Ryan has something up his sleeve.

I am thankful that hope springs eternal. Even after two abysmal years I can't wait for the next season. If I made it supporting the Twins as I grew up in the 70's and early 80's I can make it through this. I am thankful for the large number of good prospects in the low minors that give me hope for something special in a few years. I am thankful that Terry Ryan is back at the helm.

With said injury history, do you really think anybody is offering him more than $2M a season? He's a stab in the dark like Marquis was last year, but I'd rather see them go after a guy like him. At least he has some upside.

Could we be a little more pessimistic? Are we really trying to predict who will have a crappy season next year? Damn the Twins need to do something soon so we have something to talk about.

John, I am confused about the point you are making. It seems you are saying that someone who has done well at AA should be ranked higher than someone in rookie ball. Is that your point? Yet, you state that Hicks and Rosario should be rated higher than Buxton and even Sano. Considering Rosario and Sano played at the same level (Beloit) last year, you lost me. Roger, I suspect that John meant to say Arcia rather than Rosario. Otherwise, I see your point.

I agree on the middle ground, which I suspect is Ryan's position. We need to acquire several SP, but only ones who have the potential to be around in 2015. My hope is they sign Sanchez (only 28 years old) and trade for two young pitchers (Minor, Delgado, Hellickson, Paxton...). Those guys would make us better next year and get some experience for a run by 2015, maybe even 2014. The Twins should avoid any SP past his early thirties. I was pushing for Shields, but now I only think it makes sense if he will sign an extension. I don't want to see Willingham, Span or Morneau leave, but at least we have potential replacements for them. Without pitching we are just spinning our wheels towards another 60-70 win season.

That depends of what you think they could get for Willingham. I would argue that Willingham had a career year and isn't likely to repeat it. If you can get a young middle of the rotation starter for Willingham and sign Hunter to replace him, I say go for it. Hunter's WAR last three years: 2.7, 3.4, 5.5. Willingham's: 2.6, 2.1, 2.9. Hunter doesn't suck in the OF and can still hit. If they can sign Hunter for 8-10M a year, it costs a net of 1-3M a year and potentially gains a pitcher in the process that the Twins don't seem to be willing to sign in FA (at least if the Baker deal is any indication - I know it's early yet). I'll repeat, I don't see this happening in the slightest, but I think it would improve the team.

I know this will probably just make me your next target, but Dave you really need to get over it. Enough with the venom already towards Thrylos. You obviously have a grudge against him, but your ranting doesn't make the forum any better either. Your post in the other thread has to be one of the more mean-spirited ones I've read. Thrylos obviously was wrong and you will probably have the good fortune of not having to read his posts for awhile as he licks his wounds. I suggest that you do what I do when I come across messages from certain posters, just move on by and don't waste your time reading them.

You give our pitchers way too much credit. We have one 4/5 and his name is Scott Diamond. The rest are AAAA guys at best.

Another rookie agrees with you. I would amend it to keep Span. Trade Willingham and Morneau if you can sign Hunter for 2yrs and between 16 and 18M. Don't do it if he is in the 20-25M range. I like the Revere-Span-Hunter OF with Parmelle at 1B. This gives us a MUCH better defensive OF, allows us to pick up some pitching and possibly clear some money to go after additional FA. As Gleeman would say, there is a non-zero chance of that happening. It's fun to speculate, despite it being VERY unlikely. Also, having Torii around when Hicks and Arcia come up would be great.

I've been thinking about the same thing. If they can get him for a yearly salary near Willingham's, I say go for it. This could give them some flexibility in the trade market. If you trade Willingham, Hunter could take LF. If they trade Morneau, then Parmelle plays 1B.

Great point righty! He is an equal opportunity hater. He just calls it like he sees it.