Physics Guy

Ya think? AAAA catcher thread redux...

Half his power? If you are talking strictly HR, then you are correct. 24 HR at age 26 for Plouffe, 12 for Cuddyer. OPS was .756 for Plouffe, .752 for Cuddyer. OPS+ 107 Plouffe, 97 Cuddy. Half his power might be a bit of hyperbole. We can only hope Plouffe can replicate Cuddyer's age 27 season in '06: 100+ runs and RBI, 41 2B, 24 HR and an .867 OPS (124 OPS+).

From Phil Miller's Chat yesterday on StarTrib: [TABLE] [/TD] Comment From Shadow of Kirby: What are the chances of Aaron Hicks being ready to play center? Phil Miller: Very good. It's clear the Twins desperately want him to seize the job this spring, to add some excitement and intrigue to the team. That said, if he's not quite ready, sending him to Rochester for 6 weeks means they would control him for an extra season, which wouldn't be bad either. [/TABLE] I think I am going to like Miller. I didn't read the PP when he was there.[TABLE=width: 100%] [TD=class: chatmsgtime] [TD=class: chatmsgtext altcaster_text][/TD] [/TABLE]

I would agree on Pressly. I missed him. For some reason I was thinking he spent some time in the majors already. I would probably put him in Thielbar's spot and move Thielbar to #10.

I personally would love to see it, as long as we aren't just dumping Willingham and Morneau.

I can't say I disagree with any of you regarding Hicks. The smart move would be to delay his arrival to keep him an extra year. Ryan should step in and tell Gardy he is going to have to wait. Worst case scenario has Matro keeping his seat warm for a month or so. On the other hand, I hate that the system influences when guys are brought up. The best player should play.

You can view the page at http://twinsdaily.com/content.php?r=1372-Prospects-for-2013

It has been a tough offseason for many readers of Twins Daily. What started out with great promise, trades involving Span and Revere, has ended with a big thud. In the eyes of many, the Twins failed to shore up their biggest weakness from last year, the rotation. As I read thread after thread on the Twins Talk forum over the past couple of months there was a decided negativity about the direction of the Twins. Twins fans have felt that Terry Ryan did not live up to his pledge to improve the rotation. While I am disappointed that more wasn't done, I think we are in better shape now than we were at the end of the season. As they say, hope springs eternal. I am encouraged by the positivity displayed on the forum over the past couple of weeks. Maybe it is due to Spring Training. ESPN released a Top 100 Prospects list as well as organizational rankings that gave Twins fans something to be positive about. It's easy to get excited about these prospects, but many are years from contributing for the Twins (Sano, Buxton, Rosario, Kepler). In that vein, I thought I would put a different spin on the Top 10 Prospects list. I have put together a list of the top 10 players that I think have a chance to break in with the Twins this year. I'm stretching the term "prospect" for some of them, so bear with me. The rankings are based on probability that they can make it to the show as well as their chances of performing well. I have eliminated players who have spent significant time in the majors already such as all of the MI candidates as well as Robertson (40GP). So here goes my first blog attempt: #10) Alex Meyer - I don't see it happening this season, but it's not out of the realm of possibility. At best Meyer would be looking at a September callup. Meyer is only 3 months younger that Trevor May, but could use more seasoning. It would take a breakout season for him to get a look. #9) Chris Colabello - He will be 29 this season and is too old to truly be a prospect, but I think he stands a chance as a bat off the bench if and only if Morneau and/or Willingham get traded. It would be nice to have a RH bat with some pop to platoon with Parmelee on occasion against tough LHP. #8) Anthony Slama - Put me in the "Free Slama" camp. I still don't understand why he hasn't been given a chance. Jeff Gray gets 52 IP last year??? That being said, the Twins don't seem to think he can get big-league hitters out. I think several of Roenicke, Pressley, Swarzak, Burnett and Robertson would have to fail for him to get a chance. #7) Trevor May - He threw 100+ innings in AA ball last year. If he can find his command this year, he could push his way up the pecking order fairly quickly. He will be 23 this season and shouldn't be blocked by the retreads sitting in AAA. Meyer seems to have slightly higher upside, but May seems to be higher up the ladder at this point. #6) Caleb Thielbar - Following a solid showing in AA and AAA last year, Thielbar was added to the 40-man roster this offseason. It appears as though he has passed Slama up in the eyes of the Twins. Like Slama, it would take some bullpen issues for him to be given a chance this year. #5 Chris Herrmann - At this point we start to get to players with a reasonable chance of making it to the show. If either Doumitt or Mauer were to get hurt, Herrmann should be the replacement. If Butera were to get hurt, I would guess the Twins turn to Rivera instead. Signing Doumitt to an extension hurt Herrmann's chances this year. His OF versatility certainly helps. #4 Oswaldo Arcia - Arcia had a breakout season at AA last year and is likely close to being ready. If he were called up, he should be playing everyday. A Morneau or Willingham trade/injury or ineffectiveness/injury for Parmelee would be the likely reason. Right now he is probably blocked and should start at AAA. #3 Joe Benson - I hesitate putting Benson ahead of Arcia, since I think Arcia is the better prospect. This is more about opportunity. Benson has the ability to play CF which is open for the taking. If he can re-establish his status, he has a decent chance this year. His arm and power also play in RF which helps his cause if Mastroianni grabs the starting CF gig. #2 Kyle Gibson - Gibson would have been #1 at the end of the season. By all accounts he threw well at the end of the season, actually throwing harder than he did prior to surgery. The surgery is what will hold him back. He's as near a lock as anybody to play for the Twins this year. He just may not start the season with them to control his innings. #1 Aaron Hicks - Ladies and Gentlemen, your next CF and leadoff hitter for the Twins. Barring a major setback in Spring Training, I'd have to say he's nearly a lock to start the season with the Twins. This pick is all about opportunity. The trades made by the Twins indicate they feel he is ready. He finally started showing the potential the Twins felt he had this past summer in New Britain. His minor league numbers compare favorably to Torii Hunter with more plate discipline.

It has been a tough offseason for many readers of Twins Daily. What started out with great promise, trades involving Span and Revere, has ended with a big thud. In the eyes of many, the Twins failed to shore up their biggest weakness from last year, the rotation. As I read thread after thread on the Twins Talk forum over the past couple of months there was a decided negativity about the direction of the Twins. Twins fans have felt that Terry Ryan did not live up to his pledge to improve the rotation. While I am disappointed that more wasn't done, I think we are in better shape now than we were at the end of the season. As they say, hope springs eternal. I am encouraged by the positivity displayed on the forum over the past couple of weeks. Maybe it is due to Spring Training. ESPN released a Top 100 Prospects list as well as organizational rankings that gave Twins fans something to be positive about. It's easy to get excited about these prospects, but many are years from contributing for the Twins (Sano, Buxton, Rosario, Kepler). In that vein, I thought I would put a different spin on the Top 10 Prospects list. I have put together a list of the top 10 players that I think have a chance to break in with the Twins this year. I'm stretching the term "prospect" for some of them, so bear with me. The rankings are based on probability that they can make it to the show as well as their chances of performing well. I have eliminated players who have spent significant time in the majors already such as all of the MI candidates as well as Robertson (40GP). So here goes my first blog attempt: #10) Alex Meyer - I don't see it happening this season, but it's not out of the realm of possibility. At best Meyer would be looking at a September callup. Meyer is only 3 months younger that Trevor May, but could use more seasoning. It would take a breakout season for him to get a look. #9) Chris Colabello - He will be 29 this season and is too old to truly be a prospect, but I think he stands a chance as a bat off the bench if and only if Morneau and/or Willingham get traded. It would be nice to have a RH bat with some pop to platoon with Parmelee on occasion against tough LHP. #8) Anthony Slama - Put me in the "Free Slama" camp. I still don't understand why he hasn't been given a chance. Jeff Gray gets 52 IP last year??? That being said, the Twins don't seem to think he can get big-league hitters out. I think several of Roenicke, Pressley, Swarzak, Burnett and Robertson would have to fail for him to get a chance. #7) Trevor May - He threw 100+ innings in AA ball last year. If he can find his command this year, he could push his way up the pecking order fairly quickly. He will be 23 this season and shouldn't be blocked by the retreads sitting in AAA. Meyer seems to have slightly higher upside, but May seems to be higher up the ladder at this point. #6) Caleb Thielbar - Following a solid showing in AA and AAA last year, Thielbar was added to the 40-man roster this offseason. It appears as though he has passed Slama up in the eyes of the Twins. Like Slama, it would take some bullpen issues for him to be given a chance this year. #5 Chris Herrmann - At this point we start to get to players with a reasonable chance of making it to the show. If either Doumitt or Mauer were to get hurt, Herrmann should be the replacement. If Butera were to get hurt, I would guess the Twins turn to Rivera instead. Signing Doumitt to an extension hurt Herrmann's chances this year. His OF versatility certainly helps. #4 Oswaldo Arcia - Arcia had a breakout season at AA last year and is likely close to being ready. If he were called up, he should be playing everyday. A Morneau or Willingham trade/injury or ineffectiveness/injury for Parmelee would be the likely reason. Right now he is probably blocked and should start at AAA. #3 Joe Benson - I hesitate putting Benson ahead of Arcia, since I think Arcia is the better prospect. This is more about opportunity. Benson has the ability to play CF which is open for the taking. If he can re-establish his status, he has a decent chance this year. His arm and power also play in RF which helps his cause if Mastroianni grabs the starting CF gig. #2 Kyle Gibson - Gibson would have been #1 at the end of the season. By all accounts he threw well at the end of the season, actually throwing harder than he did prior to surgery. The surgery is what will hold him back. He's as near a lock as anybody to play for the Twins this year. He just may not start the season with them to control his innings. #1 Aaron Hicks - Ladies and Gentlemen, your next CF and leadoff hitter for the Twins. Barring a major setback in Spring Training, I'd have to say he's nearly a lock to start the season with the Twins. This pick is all about opportunity. The trades made by the Twins indicate they feel he is ready. He finally started showing the potential the Twins felt he had this past summer in New Britain. His minor league numbers compare favorably to Torii Hunter with more plate discipline.

Unless Parmelee falls flat on his face, he plays one year in RF and then takes over at 1B. I hate to see Morneau go, but I can't see him sticking around unless Doumit is gone to free up AB at DH.

If Diamond doesn't start opening day, it had better be Worley. I think heads will explode across TD if it is Correia.

Starters: Diamond, Worley, Correia Pelfrey, Hendriks (DeVries if Diamond needs a fill-in for a couple of weeks) Relievers: Perkins, Burton, Duensing, Fien, Roenicke, Pressly, DeVries (LR, spot starter) Burnett was at least a +WAR guy last year, but just barely. Swarzak wasn't even close. I'd like to see what some of the other guys can do and make them earn their way back. Let's not keep a Jeff Gray-type performer on the roster as long as we did last year. As for Gibson, I say start him in AAA giving him 60-70 pitches a start and hopefully have him ramped up by mid-May, early June. They have an abundance of starters in AAA, have one of them be Gibson's scheduled relief. Gibson pitches first 4-5, followed by Vazquez or Swarzak. Or better yet, have him spend April in warm Ft.Myers and then send him to AAA.

I don't see the sense in that trade from either team. Texas is in "win now" mode and would most likely be flipping Olt for major league-ready talent at an area of need. Olt is currently blocked at 3B by Beltre and by all accounts is a good 3B. Here's a quote from KLaw: "A poor defensive shortstop in college at UConn, Olt has remade himself into a plus defender at third, and he has big raw power that could produce 30-plus bombs a year if he makes enough contact." If the Twins had no options at 3B I could see the point, but Plouffe needs to be given the opportunity to prove himself. His six weeks or so last year showed he has big-league talent, he just needs to sustain it and not show that it was a fluke. There is no reason, IMHO, the Twins shouldn't allow him that opportunity. The only way the Twins should trade Buxton (when they are allowed to) is to get a SS or SP. In a year or two, if the Twins are turning the corner, I could see including him in a package for a top SP. If the Twins were to trade Buxton to Texas, Andrus is the guy they should be going after.

Re: AAAA catcher thread, I can't believe I wasted my time getting to page 5. Thanks for the article Seth. Meyer may only have one season in the minors, but it's pretty crazy to compare him to Berrios and Buxton (23 vs 18?). His college experience means something. I realize this is aggressive, but I'd like to see Meyer have a great year in AA and possibly get a September cup of coffee. I know it's more likely in 2014, but a guy can dream. Pitchers and Catchers, baby!!!

They should take BPA: best PITCHER available. After that they need to look at MI and C.

I agree completely. My guess is 77 wins (+/- 5).

Yes, KLaw saw him in the Arizona Fall League and gave a glowing report. I am not surprised he has him ranked that high.

Love this quote for Arcia: "Arcia's hands are explosive enough that he has a harder time getting them through airport security than through the strike zone..."

I believe his Top 100 Prospects list comes out later this week. What is your guess on the order of our prospects? Since he had Buxton ahead of Sano midseason last year, here is my guess: Buxton Sano Meyer Rosario Gibson Hicks Arcia I don't necessarily agree with that order, but I'm guessing KLaw's is close to that.

Sorry, I meant to do that also.

Royals 11th Indians 19th Tigers 25th White Sox 28th I think this bodes well for 2014 and beyond. 2013 is another story for another thread.

Keith Law has the Twins at #2 in his minor league systems rankings. "The Twins placed more players on my top 100 (seven) than any other team, only one of whom was initially signed by another organization, and they added a former top-100 guy, Trevor May, in a trade this offseason. Their system is particularly strong in center field, enough that they're working on converting Eddie Rosario to second base, and has more power arms with a chance to start than it has at any point in the past decade. The major league team is down, and isn't going to turn it all around in a year, but there's a lot of talent coming around which the Twins can build another contender."

I see him in the mold of Radke, sans the changeup. He has to establish strike one. Pitching is much easier when you are ahead in the count. He doesn't have the stuff to pitch from behind in the count all of the time. Baseball Reference has a stat called sOPS+ which compares the pitchers splits at various counts versus the league average. Here is what his sOPS+ was: Ahead in the count: 110 Even: 159 Behind in the count: 140 Liam Hendriks 2012 Pitching Splits - Baseball-Reference.com Radke's for his career were: Ahead: 54 Even: 101 Behind 156 For Radke's rookie season: Ahead: 105 Even: 99 Behind: 125 Hopefully Hendriks finds the command and a more effective second pitch to come even close to Radke. Without a better secondary pitch he tops out as a #3 at best and more likely a #4.

I think clearing the path is the right decision. In the past I had a problem with the way Gardy managed prospects that should be playing (Cuddy and Kubel come to mind). I felt those guys should have been left alone and allowed to play. I guess when a team is in contention the situation can be different. That should not be the case this year. There are four players in that situation this year IMO: Plouffe,Dozier, Parmelee and Hendriks. Unless they fall completely flat on their face, all three hitters should get 500+ AB and Hendriks should get 30 starts. I argued earlier for signing a Cedeno type player as insurance and I would still support that since I don't put Florimon in that category. I would put Hicks in that category if he comes up, but I would put him on a shorter leash since he hasn't proven himself in the higher minors yet.