Otto von Ballpark

It's hard to get too worked up about this right now, like the Perkins surgery, it's been a long time coming. Not a lot of strong parallels to the Ortiz situation, except it does seem to be another example of the Twins having trouble developing or relating to young Latin American players (and young sluggers in general). And we cut both to add a second utility player to our bench. Ortiz was obviously a better performer at the time we cut him, I believe Ortiz had a minor league option left, and his second year arb salary made it more likely we could pass him through waivers if we wanted him off the roster but still in the org for depth.

Good point on the pitching staff. I attended a game last week where Molitor used 3 consecutive relievers to face 1 batter each, throwing a total of 6 pitches: http://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/MIN/MIN201606080.shtml Having a 13 man pitching staff in a lost season is far from a necessity (same for multiple bench players whose primary positive attribute is positional flexibility). God forbid we fall below .300 winning percentage again because we can't use multiple relievers for one batter each, or someone has to play out of position for a few innings...

Tangential question about Nunez: what happens if his helmet comes off and interferes with a fielder or a ball in play? I noticed this possibility on a couple plays recently, one where his helmet bounced in front of the first baseman fielding a throw while Nunez was trying to beat out a grounder, and again last night where it bounced in front of the second baseman while Nunez was running to second on a Mauer groundout to second. This link suggests it would remain a live ball unless the umpires rule there was intent to interfere: https://m.reddit.com/r/baseball/comments/2sdded/becoming_an_umpire_need_help_with_a_question/ But it happens so consistently with Nunez, even on routine plays, that losing his helmet seems to be an intentional act, and I think an umpire or the league would be warranted in warning the player and team that any interference from his helmet would be ruled intentional. I hope the issue comes up during a pennant race this year.

Not to pile on, but another thought occurred to me while pondering transactions recently: I think Ortiz still had a minor league option available when we released him. Best as I can tell, he was added to the 40-man after the 1996 season, and was subsequently optioned in only two years, 1997 and 1999. (In 1998 and 2001, his minor league appearances were only for rehab while he was on the 60-day DL.) http://www.foxsports.com/mlb/david-ortiz-player-transactions Teams get at least 3 option years on players, though, and Ortiz was still short of 5 years service time so he couldn't refuse an optional assignment. I don't think those rules have changed since 2003 -- I know 3 option years was still the standard at the time because LeCroy was out of options (having used them in 2000-2002), and not long after the Twins optioned Rivas and Lohse in 2005 and 2006, respectively, when both players had over 4 but under 5 years of service time like Ortiz circa 2003 and couldn't refuse the assignment. Even accepting that the 2003 Twins were on a tighter budget in the Metrodome era, Ortiz's projected arbitration salary in 2003 was not a materially larger portion of our 2003 opening day payroll than, say, Milone's salary relative to our 2015 payroll. So it appears this was another path to retain him. (Also, the fact that Ortiz won a MLB roster spot on a contending club in Boston, despite having a minor league option remaining, implies his value was a touch higher than his part-time role in Boston originally suggested.) Regardless of budget, it has been exceedingly rare for TR and the Twins to cast aside a healthy pre-FA player for absolutely nothing when they are meeting an average performance threshold (which Ortiz was clearly doing). TR and the Twins have always viewed such players as potential assets, even if they have to get a little creative to retain them near the end, like Lohse, Rivas, and Milone. It appears the decision to release Ortiz, when we still had $2 mil to spend later on Kenny Rogers, and to release rather than non-tender so we couldn't even try to re-sign him at a lower rate -- it appears it was influenced more by culture and personality than the Twins have ever admitted. And it's probably related to the trouble the Twins had in Latin American markets prior to Sano, and difficulties developing such players and sluggers in general that seem to persist to this day.

You are correct -- Kepler qualifies for a 4th option year in 2017. Polanco does not, unfortunately, by the slim margin of 3 days in 2010. Would be interesting to hear exactly why the Twins split up Polanco's rookie league season in 2010. It shouldn't have been an oversight, he was a notable signing in 2009, and he wasn't on any fast track either (didn't reach full season ball until 2013). Like Kepler, he's exactly the kind of guy you keep in rookie league ball and under 90 active days for a few years. Even if they wanted to move him out of the DOSL and into the GCL for a while that first summer, I think they could have shut him down 3-7 days early and assigned him back to the DOSL on paper to keep him under 90 days.

Has this same article been written before about Arcia? Parmelee? Those guys raked in Rochester too. Plouffe eventually did too. None of them have ever generated enough offense to hold down a corner OF spot in MLB.

The Meyer tie-in is that there was no 40 man roster crunch. They could have promoted any other AAA pitcher over Chargois if they so desired.

What was the emergency? Alex Meyer hasn't pitched in over 40 days and could easily go on the 60 day DL at this point. Edit: technically a minor league player can't go on the 60 day DL, but I am pretty sure the Twins could rescind their option on Meyer and retroactively put him on the MLB DL, since he hasn't played since his MLB stint. It has been done before by other organizations.

That's fair, although I think Polanco's admittedly small MLB sample is encouraging -- he's looked pretty darn comfortable as a MLB hitter from day 1, which is refreshing. I won't quibble any further with their prospect rankings, I am more concerned with the lack of MLB opportunity for Polanco.

It was just a statement of fact, they are very close in age. It made no absolute claims based on that fact that could be considered "cutting it awfully fine." It wasn't claiming that Polanco is better than Kepler due to age, or that he can develop more, etc. Just that, if Kepler gets points for taking a step forward on the development curve in the past 12 months, then Polanco might deserve similar credit for his recent performances too because he is similarly young. Not necessarily equivalent credit, if Kepler gets bonus points for his unlikely origins, but comparable enough to cast doubt on the 5 spot gap between them in Seth's rankings (the context of the original post).

I think you are the only one who read Thrylos' statement as "Polanco's recent numbers vs. Kepler's career numbers". Go back and read it again, that wasn't explicitly written nor do I think it was even implied (especially considering the same post invoked their similar ages, which implies the author is far more interested in their current place on the development curve than minor league career numbers, which very few people cite as meaningful, ever). And frankly, Polanco compares pretty well, especially with the added potential to be a middle infielder. I have no problem with Kepler being ahead of Polanco, but I think it is fair to question how Kepler would be ranked #1 and Polanco #6 at this point.

Maybe I am reading it wrong, but I didn't think that was the comparison implied. Just that Polanco's recent numbers stack up pretty well with Kepler's recent numbers, and he is younger and potentially plays a more important defensive position.

That was my first question too! http://www.pressherald.com/2014/05/14/steve_solloway__joe_cronin_lives_with_joe_cronin_/

I don't think so -- Rule 5 eligibility is determined by age and signing date, and the draft signing deadline is now in August so we can't push it to next year, even if he can't play until next year.

I suspect Stewart wasn't that hot of commodity, hence why he only netted Kielty who wasn't even a prospect anymore, just an average-ish outfielder himself.

The first Rick Aguilera deal, perhaps?

Salary was no consideration in the Herrmann-Palka swap. In some ways, Fowler was a salary dump too -- the Astros exchanged his ~$9 mil salary for Valbuena's ~$4 mil. Plouffe is making $7.25 mil. He might get you a Palka (who is interesting but isn't that well regarded as a prospect, in some ways like our own Adam Brett Walker), or maybe he might get you another team's salary dump, but primarily he is going to get you salary relief. Same for Milone at $4.5 mil and in the minor leagues. Packaging them together would actually reduce their trade value, I think. Few teams are probably able to pick up the remaining ~$8 mil tab on those two combined, and those teams will probably aim higher. I still think the Twins will probably have to eat some salary to get anything back of consequence for either of those two players. Which if TR's history is any indication, means we won't get back anything of consequence for them. At best, 2 months salary relief and a fringe prospect. For Nunez, salary isn't really an issue, so he should be able to net a Palka or two or even a bit better (almost certainly not a top 100 type prospect though).

FWIW, I don't know if this is really true. He was never ranked in any of the "big 3" lists, despite being eligible for such lists for 6 years, up until his 24th birthday. The Yankees promote aggressively at times, but Nunez basically repeated both A and A+ levels, and spent full seasons at AA and AAA before debuting at age 23. He was pretty consistently a .260-.280 hitter, 90-something wRC+ hitter throughout, except for a .322 AVG, 116 wRC+ blip at AA. Not a bad young player, could become a decent starter for awhile, but not really a "hot prospect". I think he just got a lot of attention from the Yankee hype machine for a bit -- Nunez's .322 season at AA just happened to immediately precede Jeter's first big decline year (.270 AVG, 90 OPS+), leading to a lot speculation about him taking over the position.

Top 100? That's not happening. Zach Davies wasn't even that level, Sickels didn't even have him in his top 175 entering 2015 or 2016 (although the latter, he did get a mention among "others in the picture" although Sickels went a little overboard listing 145 additional players in that category!). Maybe we could get a project reliever (or two) like the Braves just got for Kelly Johnson: http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/morriak01.shtml

Generally agreed, although it does appear like two infielders will need to be traded/injured in order to get Polanco meaningful playing time this year.

Thanks, I do believe I had you confused with another poster there. There has been so little public discussion of Stewart's character that I conflated the two. Still, I'd be wary of judging anyone's character based on the interactions you described. So he doesn't open up with fans standing around outside games and practices, that isn't necessarily a character issue. And it says nothing about how he might interact with his peers/teammates and coaches.

Huh? What the heck are you responding to here? I never "ignored the rest of Plouffe's work" and I never said that the first 2 months of a prospects career tell us nothing. Plouffe's career tells us he is a fairly low upside guy who may not even be worth his arb award this year and next in the current 3B market. And 2 months of a prospect can be good info, better than nothing but its not as good as 3 or 4 months. Also, it is important to take the opportunity when it is available. What happens if we delay all this until August 1st because we don't want to send a couple mil with Plouffe to offset his salary between now and then, and then Polanco or Escobar suffer injuries over the last two months? Or even more likely, TR still can't work a trade until late August and now you're down to basically a September call-up, and Polanco still might be fighting with Escobar, Santana, Nunez, etc for playing time. There is a cost to delaying things, probably more than offsetting whatever modest gain Trader Terry thinks he is getting from his conservative trade stance. Simply put, the guys relevant to our future are healthy now and ready to experience everyday MLB action. The guy who isn't relevant to our future is unlikely to see his value shift in the next two months except due to his decreasing salary obligation. There is no better time to eat a little money to get things moving. Maybe the Mets would have still preferred Kelly Johnson, but do you think TR was on the phone with them and opening to sending along $2-3 mil cash? If not, that is a problem.

I thought we debunked your overheard conversation from what was allegedly Kohl Stewart's family?

It's not about concluding which players are bad in two months, it's about collecting data. Right now we have a ton of data about Dozier, Plouffe, etc., and very little about Polanco. What's a better use of limited playing time resources in the middle of a lost season, seeing Dozier's career PA # 2600-2800, or Plouffe's career PA # 2700-2900, or Polanco's career PA # 50-250? Especially when we have to make decisions this winter about Polanco (out of options), Santana (out of options), and Plouffe, Escobar, and Nunez (all due raises in arbitration). And the Mets trade for Kelly Johnson suggests trades can come before the end of July if the team wants it to. I suspect the Twins could have eaten $3 mil and moved Plouffe to the Mets for an interesting relief prospect a few days ago. But instead they would rather pay him that same $3 mil for him to play here ahead of Polanco and Escobar in a lost season the next two months, and hope that something better is available July 31st which it likely won't be, given Plouffe's salary and track record and the general 3B market. Also, the Twins aren't only limiting themselves by waiting for trade opportunities. Pat Dean is in the starting rotation, for example, while Trevor May threw 2 pitches in a one batter relief appearance last night, again in the middle of a lost season...

Heck, you could probably even bid on getting Plouffe back, assuming his new team also isn't thrilled with his potential $10 mil arb award.