Bill

I have always thought this was a source of problems... hands moving forward with the stride instead of moving back.

Anyone notice that Rodney does not seem to be warmed up when he starts an inning? First fastballs are usually low 90s. After letting on a few runners he starts to pump it up to 96 to 98. I get that he may only have a certain number of fast fastballs in him per night, but I think a different strategy might be worth a try.

Not too much. We gave up a little (slight decrease in already low chances of making playoffs this year) and in return we got a little (moderate chance new minor leaguers turn out to be solid MLB contributers).

What was up with the 0-2 semi-overhand fastball right down the middle that Hildenberger threw? That batter was toast if Hildy would have just thrown something slow a foot off the plate in the lefty batters box.

Usually off balance and lunging at the ball. Torso leaning way forward. Rarely lets the ball get deep enough. Even when he makes good contact, the approach looks bad. At 0:09 of the video where they are talking about his non-kick he hits a line drive to left... on a pitch six inches outside. Then at 0:23, again lunging and pulling a pitch on the outside black to left. So: set up far away from the plate, lunge toward the plate (kick or no kick), and then pull outside pitches. Oooof. I guess this is supposed to be like Molitor, who had hardly any stride and who started far from the plate. But Molitor lets the ball get to him; Buxton does not. Hopefully this gets fixed somehow.

Like the baseball card pics.

That pitch looks just a little high.

In AAA in 2016, Vargas hit .283 against righties and .131 against lefties. The extreme difference is seemingly a fluke of small numbers. That said, there are some years in the minors when he hit better against lefties and some years when he better against righties. Vargas has been a consistently good hitter as he moved up through the minors, and has made a notable improvement at taking walks. I say give him significant PT against both lefties and righties and see what happens.

Literally.

Remarkably, Eddie Rosario has 0 walks in 74 at bats. He is hitting for average and extra bases, but I would think some pitcher would have throw 4 straight over his head by now. Seems he's still in this mode: http://m.mlb.com/video/v372768683/clemin-rosario-launches-solo-homer-off-tomlin

Please do not give away Arcia now... He already hit 20 homers in a season in MLB and 30 seems to be within reason. He is in a funk this year, for sure. But I think he can come out of it.

That was too hasty... make it 55-45.

50-50 chance he is better than Fein the rest of the season.

Feeling optimistic... Already been to Target Field three times this year. Saw Plouffe's grand slam a few weeks ago and his three-run homer yesterday. My son is talking playoff tickets!

I thought it would be useful to think about what sort of careers these players might have by comparing the prospects to some past MLB players. For each prospect, I have listed below an MLBer that the prospect would be comparable to in the best case (i.e., if the prospect does the best that could reasonably be hoped). I also listed a player I think the prospect will most likely end up like. Below BC="Best Case" comparison, MLC="Most-Likely Case" comparison, and DMM="Doesn't make the majors". Let me know what you think. Thorpe: BC=Mike Flanagan, MLC=DMM Kepler: BC=Fred Lynn, MLC=John Lowenstein Gonsalves: BC=Scott McGregor, MLC=DMM Walker: BC=Lee May, MLC=Mike Devereaux Rogers: BC=Scott McGregor, MLC=Tippy Martinez Duffey: BC=Storm Davis, MLC=Sammy Stewart Turner: BC=Rick Dempsey, MLC=Dave Skaggs Reed: BC=Tim Stoddard, MLC=DMM Harrison: BC=Doug Decinces, MLC=Craig Worthington Minier: BC=Ken Singleton, MLC=DMM

Let him start the season in AAA, and play everyday there against both righties and lefties. If he does well for a few months, then bring him up. There is no point in making him a platoon player in the majors yet.

Yes, I read that one some time back... I think one additional point is that Arcia drops his hands but does not bring them back up to start his hands forward. If you look at the 6 second mark of the Ortiz video I linked, it shows Ortiz in almost the same position as Arcia in the still photo from your earlier article. The big difference is that Ortiz gets his hands back up, but Arcia does not.

My amateur batting coaching.... I think the biggest issue is the location of the hands when they start forward. Lots of guys have big leg kicks and move their hands around before the swing. But when the hands start to move forward they are around shoulder level. Arcia's are very low when they start forward. Check out David Ortiz in the video link below. He has a huge leg kick and drops his hands. But when the hands start forward, they are back up at shoulder level. Look at the 9 second mark of this video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q29688HqdQ8 Look at the 26 second mark of this old video of Arcia from Fort Myers. Hands are much lower when they start to go forward: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Kh_Ka3TkyHY Arcia is still doing that, but he has added a big leg kick. Bautista is another big leg kicker but his hands are again much higher when they start to come forward. Look at the 15 second mark of this video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gm7GFYVubSE Arcia's low hand position is going to make it very tough for him to hit pitches that are not low.

What do the Twins need to win the pennant in 2015 or 2016? Well, several things. But the biggest deficiency of the current 2013 Twins team is starting pitching. The starters' ERA of 5.35 ranks last in the AL and last in the majors. The Twins have just 2 of the 45 pitchers in the AL with enough innings to qualify for the ERA leader board. One of the two is Scott Diamond, who is ranked 45th among the 45 with an ERA of 5.52 (and who just snuck in with 88 innings over the Twins' 87 games as of today). The other is Kevin Correia, who is ranked 29th with an ERA of 4.19. The overall ERA among AL starters is 4.30.[PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] 2013. AL Overall Starting Pitcher ERA: 4.30 Twins Starter ERA: 5.35, AL rank: 15 Qualified Starters (Twins have 2 of 45 current AL ERA qualifiers): Correia 4.19 (AL ERA rank 29), Diamond 5.52 (45) ----- What sort of starting pitching do AL pennant winners have? To answer this question, I looked at all the AL pennant winners going back to 2001. On average, AL champs' starters ranked about 3rd (average rank of 3.16) in the AL in ERA over the 12 years of 2001-12, and on average they had 3.67 starters that were good (and healthy) enough to pitch enough innings to qualify for the AL ERA leaderboard. An average of 3.25 of those starters had an ERA better than the league average for starters. The pennant winners usually had at least one starter in the AL top 10 in ERA. The details for 2001 through 2012 are below. What can we project for Twins starters in 2015/16? An optimistic scenario is that two of Meyer, May, Diamond, Hendriks, Gibson, Worley, and Berrios can post ERA's better than league average as starters. A very optimistic scenario is that three will. A pessimistic scenario is that none will. If things turn out badly for all of Meyer, May, Diamond, Hendriks, Gibson, Worley, and Berrios in 2015/16 then I think there is really little that can be done for the Twins in those years and we can start thinking about 2017 or later. So I am not even going to worry about the pessimistic scenario. If we are somewhat optimistic and suppose that 2 of those 7 are successful starters in 2015/16 (better than league average ERA) then I think we still need two more high quality starters who are not with the organization now. One of those two should be a guy who can produce a top ten ERA. Will the Twins fork over the money and/or make the trades to do it? ----- 2012. AL Overall Starting Pitcher ERA: 4.39 AL Champ: Detroit, Starter ERA: 3.76, AL rank: 2 Qualified Starters (Detroit had 3 of 36 AL ERA qualifiers): Verlander 2.64 (AL ERA rank 2), Scherzer 3.74 (14), Porcello 4.59 (26) 2011. AL Overall Starting Pitcher ERA: 4.23 AL Champ: Texas, Starter ERA: 3.65, AL rank: 3 Qualified Starters (5 of 42): Wilson 2.94 (7), Harrison 3.39 (15), Ogando 3.51 (19), Holland 3.95 (24), Lewis 4.40 (33) 2010. AL Overall Starting Pitcher ERA: 4.27 AL Champ: Texas, Starter ERA: 4.23, AL rank: 7 Qualified Starters (3 of 43): Lee 3.18 (5), Wilson 3.35 (10), Lewis 3.72 (16), 2009. AL Overall Starting Pitcher ERA: 4.63 AL Champ: New York, Starter ERA: 4.48, AL rank: 5 Qualified Starters (3 of 30): Sabathia 3.37 (4), Burnett 4.04 (19), Pettitte 4.16 (24) 2008. AL Overall Starting Pitcher ERA: 4.50 AL Champ: Tampa Bay, Starter ERA: 3.95, AL rank: 2 Qualified Starters (4 of 40): Shields 3.56 (12), Garza 3.70 (15), Sonnanstine 4.38 (28), Jackson 4.42 (29) 2007. AL Overall Starting Pitcher ERA: 4.63 AL Champ: Boston, Starter ERA: 4.21, AL rank: 2 Qualified Starters (3 of 37): Beckett 3.27 (6), Matsuzaka 4.40 (28), Wakefield 4.76 (32) 2006. AL Overall Starting Pitcher ERA: 4.75 AL Champ: Detroit, Starter ERA: 4.00, AL rank: 1 Qualified Starters (4 of 39): Verlander 3.63 (7), Rogers 3.84 (11), Robertson 3.84 (12), Bonderman 4.08 (14) 2005. AL Overall Starting Pitcher ERA: 4.56 AL Champ: Chicago, Starter ERA: 3.75, AL rank: 2 Qualified Starters (4 of 44): Buehrle 3.12 (3), Garland 3.50 (9), Contreras 3.61 (11), Garcia 3.87 (21) 2004. AL Overall Starting Pitcher ERA: 4.85 AL Champ: Boston, Starter ERA: 4.31, AL rank: 3 Qualified Starters (5 of 43): Schilling 3.26 (2), Martinez 3.90 (9), Arroyo 4.03 (12), Wakefield 4.87 (27), Lowe 5.42 (38) 2003. AL Overall Starting Pitcher ERA: 4.70 AL Champ: New York, Starter ERA: 4.02, AL rank: 3 Qualified Starters (4 of 39): Mussina 3.40 (8), Clemens 3.91 (15), Pettitte 4.02 (16), Wells 4.14 (18) 2002. AL Overall Starting Pitcher ERA: 4.59 AL Champ: Anaheim, Starter ERA: 4.00, AL rank: 4 Qualified Starters (3 of 37): Washburn 3.15 (7), Ortiz 3.77 (15), Appier 3.92 (19) 2001. AL Overall Starting Pitcher ERA: 4.68 AL Champ: New York, Starter ERA: 4.34, AL rank: 4 Qualified Starters (3 of 34): Mussina 3.15 (2), Clemens 3.15 (9), Pettitte 3.99 (15) View full article

What do the Twins need to win the pennant in 2015 or 2016? Well, several things. But the biggest deficiency of the current 2013 Twins team is starting pitching. The starters' ERA of 5.35 ranks last in the AL and last in the majors. The Twins have just 2 of the 45 pitchers in the AL with enough innings to qualify for the ERA leader board. One of the two is Scott Diamond, who is ranked 45th among the 45 with an ERA of 5.52 (and who just snuck in with 88 innings over the Twins' 87 games as of today). The other is Kevin Correia, who is ranked 29th with an ERA of 4.19. The overall ERA among AL starters is 4.30. 2013. AL Overall Starting Pitcher ERA: 4.30 Twins Starter ERA: 5.35, AL rank: 15 Qualified Starters (Twins have 2 of 45 current AL ERA qualifiers): Correia 4.19 (AL ERA rank 29), Diamond 5.52 (45) ----- What sort of starting pitching do AL pennant winners have? To answer this question, I looked at all the AL pennant winners going back to 2001. On average, AL champs' starters ranked about 3rd (average rank of 3.16) in the AL in ERA over the 12 years of 2001-12, and on average they had 3.67 starters that were good (and healthy) enough to pitch enough innings to qualify for the AL ERA leaderboard. An average of 3.25 of those starters had ERAs better than the league average for starters. The pennant winners usually had at least one starter in the AL top 10 in ERA. The details for 2001 through 2012 are below. What can we project for Twins starters in 2015/16? An optimistic scenario is that two of Meyer, May, Diamond, Hendriks, Gibson, Worley, and Berrios can post ERAs better than league average as starters. A very optimistic scenario is that three will. A pessimistic scenario is that none will. If things turn out badly for all of Meyer, May, Diamond, Hendriks, Gibson, Worley, and Berrios in 2015/16 then I think there is really little that can be done for the Twins in those years and we can start thinking about 2017 or later. So I am not even going to worry about the pessimistic scenario. If we are somewhat optimistic and suppose that 2 of those 7 are successful starters in 2015/16 (better than league average ERA) then I think we still need two more high quality starters that are not with the organization now. One of those two should be a guy who can produce a top ten ERA. Will the Twins fork over the money and/or make the trades to do it? ----- 2012. AL Overall Starting Pitcher ERA: 4.39 AL Champ: Detroit, Starter ERA: 3.76, AL rank: 2 Qualified Starters (Detroit had 3 of 36 AL ERA qualifiers): Verlander 2.64 (AL ERA rank 2), Scherzer 3.74 (14), Porcello 4.59 (26) 2011. AL Overall Starting Pitcher ERA: 4.23 AL Champ: Texas, Starter ERA: 3.65, AL rank: 3 Qualified Starters (5 of 42): Wilson 2.94 (7), Harrison 3.39 (15), Ogando 3.51 (19), Holland 3.95 (24), Lewis 4.40 (33) 2010. AL Overall Starting Pitcher ERA: 4.27 AL Champ: Texas, Starter ERA: 4.23, AL rank: 7 Qualified Starters (3 of 43): Lee 3.18 (5), Wilson 3.35 (10), Lewis 3.72 (16), 2009. AL Overall Starting Pitcher ERA: 4.63 AL Champ: New York, Starter ERA: 4.48, AL rank: 5 Qualified Starters (3 of 30): Sabathia 3.37 (4), Burnett 4.04 (19), Pettitte 4.16 (24) 2008. AL Overall Starting Pitcher ERA: 4.50 AL Champ: Tampa Bay, Starter ERA: 3.95, AL rank: 2 Qualified Starters (4 of 40): Shields 3.56 (12), Garza 3.70 (15), Sonnanstine 4.38 (28), Jackson 4.42 (29) 2007. AL Overall Starting Pitcher ERA: 4.63 AL Champ: Boston, Starter ERA: 4.21, AL rank: 2 Qualified Starters (3 of 37): Beckett 3.27 (6), Matsuzaka 4.40 (28), Wakefield 4.76 (32) 2006. AL Overall Starting Pitcher ERA: 4.75 AL Champ: Detroit, Starter ERA: 4.00, AL rank: 1 Qualified Starters (4 of 39): Verlander 3.63 (7), Rogers 3.84 (11), Robertson 3.84 (12), Bonderman 4.08 (14) 2005. AL Overall Starting Pitcher ERA: 4.56 AL Champ: Chicago, Starter ERA: 3.75, AL rank: 2 Qualified Starters (4 of 44): Buehrle 3.12 (3), Garland 3.50 (9), Contreras 3.61 (11), Garcia 3.87 (21) 2004. AL Overall Starting Pitcher ERA: 4.85 AL Champ: Boston, Starter ERA: 4.31, AL rank: 3 Qualified Starters (5 of 43): Schilling 3.26 (2), Martinez 3.90 (9), Arroyo 4.03 (12), Wakefield 4.87 (27), Lowe 5.42 (38) 2003. AL Overall Starting Pitcher ERA: 4.70 AL Champ: New York, Starter ERA: 4.02, AL rank: 3 Qualified Starters (4 of 39): Mussina 3.40 (8), Clemens 3.91 (15), Pettitte 4.02 (16), Wells 4.14 (18) 2002. AL Overall Starting Pitcher ERA: 4.59 AL Champ: Anaheim, Starter ERA: 4.00, AL rank: 4 Qualified Starters (3 of 37): Washburn 3.15 (7), Ortiz 3.77 (15), Appier 3.92 (19) 2001. AL Overall Starting Pitcher ERA: 4.68 AL Champ: New York, Starter ERA: 4.34, AL rank: 4 Qualified Starters (3 of 34): Mussina 3.15 (2), Clemens 3.15 (9), Pettitte 3.99 (15)

What do the Twins need to win the pennant in 2015 or 2016? Well, several things. But the biggest deficiency of the current 2013 Twins team is starting pitching. The starters' ERA of 5.35 ranks last in the AL and last in the majors. The Twins have just 2 of the 45 pitchers in the AL with enough innings to qualify for the ERA leader board. One of the two is Scott Diamond, who is ranked 45th among the 45 with an ERA of 5.52 (and who just snuck in with 88 innings over the Twins' 87 games as of today). The other is Kevin Correia, who is ranked 29th with an ERA of 4.19. The overall ERA among AL starters is 4.30. 2013. AL Overall Starting Pitcher ERA: 4.30 Twins Starter ERA: 5.35, AL rank: 15 Qualified Starters (Twins have 2 of 45 current AL ERA qualifiers): Correia 4.19 (AL ERA rank 29), Diamond 5.52 (45) ----- What sort of starting pitching do AL pennant winners have? To answer this question, I looked at all the AL pennant winners going back to 2001. On average, AL champs' starters ranked about 3rd (average rank of 3.16) in the AL in ERA over the 12 years of 2001-12, and on average they had 3.67 starters that were good (and healthy) enough to pitch enough innings to qualify for the AL ERA leaderboard. An average of 3.25 of those starters had ERAs better than the league average for starters. The pennant winners usually had at least one starter in the AL top 10 in ERA. The details for 2001 through 2012 are below. What can we project for Twins starters in 2015/16? An optimistic scenario is that two of Meyer, May, Diamond, Hendriks, Gibson, Worley, and Berrios can post ERAs better than league average as starters. A very optimistic scenario is that three will. A pessimistic scenario is that none will. If things turn out badly for all of Meyer, May, Diamond, Hendriks, Gibson, Worley, and Berrios in 2015/16 then I think there is really little that can be done for the Twins in those years and we can start thinking about 2017 or later. So I am not even going to worry about the pessimistic scenario. If we are somewhat optimistic and suppose that 2 of those 7 are successful starters in 2015/16 (better than league average ERA) then I think we still need two more high quality starters that are not with the organization now. One of those two should be a guy who can produce a top ten ERA. Will the Twins fork over the money and/or make the trades to do it? ----- 2012. AL Overall Starting Pitcher ERA: 4.39 AL Champ: Detroit, Starter ERA: 3.76, AL rank: 2 Qualified Starters (Detroit had 3 of 36 AL ERA qualifiers): Verlander 2.64 (AL ERA rank 2), Scherzer 3.74 (14), Porcello 4.59 (26) 2011. AL Overall Starting Pitcher ERA: 4.23 AL Champ: Texas, Starter ERA: 3.65, AL rank: 3 Qualified Starters (5 of 42): Wilson 2.94 (7), Harrison 3.39 (15), Ogando 3.51 (19), Holland 3.95 (24), Lewis 4.40 (33) 2010. AL Overall Starting Pitcher ERA: 4.27 AL Champ: Texas, Starter ERA: 4.23, AL rank: 7 Qualified Starters (3 of 43): Lee 3.18 (5), Wilson 3.35 (10), Lewis 3.72 (16), 2009. AL Overall Starting Pitcher ERA: 4.63 AL Champ: New York, Starter ERA: 4.48, AL rank: 5 Qualified Starters (3 of 30): Sabathia 3.37 (4), Burnett 4.04 (19), Pettitte 4.16 (24) 2008. AL Overall Starting Pitcher ERA: 4.50 AL Champ: Tampa Bay, Starter ERA: 3.95, AL rank: 2 Qualified Starters (4 of 40): Shields 3.56 (12), Garza 3.70 (15), Sonnanstine 4.38 (28), Jackson 4.42 (29) 2007. AL Overall Starting Pitcher ERA: 4.63 AL Champ: Boston, Starter ERA: 4.21, AL rank: 2 Qualified Starters (3 of 37): Beckett 3.27 (6), Matsuzaka 4.40 (28), Wakefield 4.76 (32) 2006. AL Overall Starting Pitcher ERA: 4.75 AL Champ: Detroit, Starter ERA: 4.00, AL rank: 1 Qualified Starters (4 of 39): Verlander 3.63 (7), Rogers 3.84 (11), Robertson 3.84 (12), Bonderman 4.08 (14) 2005. AL Overall Starting Pitcher ERA: 4.56 AL Champ: Chicago, Starter ERA: 3.75, AL rank: 2 Qualified Starters (4 of 44): Buehrle 3.12 (3), Garland 3.50 (9), Contreras 3.61 (11), Garcia 3.87 (21) 2004. AL Overall Starting Pitcher ERA: 4.85 AL Champ: Boston, Starter ERA: 4.31, AL rank: 3 Qualified Starters (5 of 43): Schilling 3.26 (2), Martinez 3.90 (9), Arroyo 4.03 (12), Wakefield 4.87 (27), Lowe 5.42 (38) 2003. AL Overall Starting Pitcher ERA: 4.70 AL Champ: New York, Starter ERA: 4.02, AL rank: 3 Qualified Starters (4 of 39): Mussina 3.40 (8), Clemens 3.91 (15), Pettitte 4.02 (16), Wells 4.14 (18) 2002. AL Overall Starting Pitcher ERA: 4.59 AL Champ: Anaheim, Starter ERA: 4.00, AL rank: 4 Qualified Starters (3 of 37): Washburn 3.15 (7), Ortiz 3.77 (15), Appier 3.92 (19) 2001. AL Overall Starting Pitcher ERA: 4.68 AL Champ: New York, Starter ERA: 4.34, AL rank: 4 Qualified Starters (3 of 34): Mussina 3.15 (2), Clemens 3.15 (9), Pettitte 3.99 (15)