Doc Munson

The Twins will need all of their starting pitching depth, and then some more than likely. Even the healthiest teams use 6-7 starters over the course of a full season. Factoring in recent injury woes for Twins pitchers and one thinks the Twins will use 6-7 starters easily this year. But lets assume the Twins keep a 5 man rotation. With the Twins most likely using 6-7, there will still be 4-5 "Primary starters". and 2-3 that will either be short term starters, sporadic starters, or spot starters. We have some obvious Primary Starters locked in. Sonny Gray, Joe Ryan, and Pablo Lopez are locks. Lets go ahead and assume that Tyler Mahle is fully healthy and will be good to go. that is a 4th no brainer. So who is, or better yet who SHOULD be #5? I can tell you right who IS, or WILL be #5, and that is Kenta Maeda. The Twins will be banking on Maeda being the All Star level pitcher he was in 11 games in the Covid shortened 2020 season. Where in 11 games he went 66 innings, good for a 6+ inning average with 80K against 10 BB a 2.70 ERA and a 0.75 WHIP. But... SHOULD he be th e5th starter? and is it reasonable to expect that after a year+ off? His career averages are a 3.87 ERA just under a 4:1 K:BB rate, a 9.85K/9 and a 1.14 WHIP. Those are still very good numbers anyone would love to have in the rotation. That being said, in albeit a much shorter sample size, Ober has career numbers of 3.82 ERA, just under a 5:1 K rate, a 9K/9IP and a 1.15 WHIP.. If we go by the numbers, it says they are both equally effective starting pitchers. And the question you must ask then is... "IF they are both equal, and both interchangeable for each other, then who should be the 5th starter?" "Common sense" or maybe more accurately "traditional thinking" says it should be Maeda, as Ober still has options. But should he??? I would argue we need to look longer term. Any player CAN be resigned this offseason, so in theory ANY of our starters could be back, BUT... in reality we will not resign everyone, and we actually have only Randy Dobnak and Chris Paddack under contract for next year. Of course Joe Gray will be here, and will still have rights to Lopez, BUT the only sure things are Dobnak and Paddack. Most likely Sonny Gray and Maeda will be gone. With that in mind, I think the correct way to look at things, assuming both pitchers should give roughly the same results is to go with the pitcher who will still be here going forward and continue to give him the experience and build up he will need for next year. This way next year is not his first "full year" in the rotation and is not as much of a question mark. Secondly while predominately a starter in LA, Maeda did also show he can be very successful out of the bullpen, and if you are a cheapskate you can save millions in bonuses paid to Maeda with him in a relief/PT starter situation. The clear way of thinking screams the 5th starter needs to be Ober vs Maeda.

That was one of the top 3 games ever at the Dome. Sadly one thing still sticks in my mind though, and it is a memory that makes me ashamed and embarrassed to have been there. The stadium wide chants of "Al-CO-HO-LIC!!!!" When Miguel Cabrera came to the plate. Crazy, awesome, tense, fun, suspense filled game that today I still can't fully enjoy to this day. OF course at the time I was young and stupid and thought how cool it was, but again looking back embarrassed.

First off, it is very sad to see a fun, popular, and "kid friendly" player such as Arraez get moved. As has been said in many other places though, it was the right baseball move. Has enough time passed where we can ask what the impact will be on the roster? if so... What is the impact of the Luis Arraez trade on the roster?? hehe Obviously 2 big areas are immediately impacted. DH & 1B Who's On 1st? Obviously you have to start with Kirilloff. You would assume it is his to lose. Working on the impression the Miranda is 100% moving to 3B. There have been rumors of Yuli Guriel interest, but really if we even consider that, then we need to consider (close your eyes people) Miguel Sano as well. Guriel was a 85 OPS plus which means he was 15% below average. No tworth a move in my opinon. DO we move Kepler to 1B? The down side of the Arraez trade is we are left with very little PROVEN comodity at 1B. My move is to reach out to Washington and check in on a Kirillof for recently signed Dom SMith direct trade. Can you trade a recently signed FA?? I dont know. short of that move I see it being Kirilloff. Who do you see as the opening day 1B? DH is another impacted position, however with more options, yet equally unproven options. Yes Buxton will take weekly DH ABs, Correa might as well in order to protect long term. I do not see a PURE DH bat on this roster except for possibly Wallner. Gallo is a big bat but supposedly plays some strong defense. Again like 1B there is not a ton of significant upgreads out there at DH. While I commend Falvie for having patience and getting a good deal for Arraez, the down side of such patience is that quality other options are no longer available. For the opening day primary DH, I am going to have to go ahead and go with Wallner, or maybe cheat and say a Wallner/Larnach platoon. WHo do you see as opening day primary DH? AND if Kepler still gets moved, and there really is no need at this point as we have a pretty solid rotation, maybe for a bullpen arm??? but at this point with a set rotation we might as well go with a quality OF defense of Kepler, Gallo, Buxton. BTU if he does still get moved,then you have to assume the entore OF/1B/DH logjam is releived and all 3 of Kirilloff, Larnach, adn Wallner are on the openign day roster. right??

On a side note, has there been any articles speaking to his conditioning? That would be the only contributing facto rin my mind. IF with his career on teh line after getting released, he has STILL not taken the offseason to focus 100% on his weight/conditioning/health/whatever, then he is not focused enough on his career. IF on the other hand he would have used the offseason to lose weight (takes pressure off those knees), get into yoga or some form of strenght & flexibility program. Then I would 100% offer him a deal. At his age he still has at least a decetn chance of making some godo money over the next 5 years or so. But it starts with a rebound year this year, followed by a prove it wasnt a fluke year next year, adn then he could sign a 2-3 year deal for $15-20M plus. Still good money to be made in this game, and if he hasn't focused on this in the offseason, then he never will.

I'd see if Kepler and Farmer and a prospect coudl get us the remains of Chris Sale from teh Red Sox. After losing Xander, and now Story having elbow surgery, Sox are in a bad spot.

I actually now hope the Twins do NOTHING ELSE this offseason. At this point it is a strong ball club. In order to go deep in the playoffs we may need to add pitching, but I do not think we need to add pitching to be in contention. We have some top quality prospects, but they shoudl really only be dealt at this point to put us over the top. Lets roll with the rotation listed above, along with the young near MLB ready prospects for the first half of the year. I think the worst thing the Twins could do at this point is give up some potential top prospects for pitching too early. Last year was the perfect example. we traded Chase Petty for Sonny Gray. What did that do for us? Yes Sonny Gray had a very good season, and should help this year as well, btu we still didn't make the playoffs. Completely "happenstancily" if that is word, and it does not mean we should not give up good prospects to get good quality MLB players, and yes Chase may never pan out. but that is not the point The point is, you just don't trade that quality of prospect until you HAVE to. You can trade from organizational depth early on in the preseason, but shoudlnt trade top prospect suntil you have to or unless the deal is too good to pass up. (and was the Sonny Gray one???maybe) ANyways I am rambling again. My point is I like our team as it sits. I think we can contend with it. Lets make some moves and even trade some top propsects, just not now. start the season relatively "AS IS" and then be aggressive B-E aggressive mid season. :) LOL

He might not have actually been a good fit for teh Twins, but I was REALLY hoping we would have resigned him. woudl love to have him back on this team. :( but happy he is still playing!!

Again I think another person missing the point. I agree with all... ok MOST of your points. BUT... Again I NEVER said to PASS on Correa., and I am not sure I saw any other commenters saying to pass on Correa. Would you say it is fair to say that there was most likely a plan in place for how we would be moving forward at SS prior to Correa becoming available again? and would it not be fair to say it most likely involved playing the person they traded for (Farmer) initially? and would it also not be fair to assume that our top 2 prospects who both could be on the team come September would have come in to play as potential long term SS plans? And would it not be fair to say that Correa is more than likely better than them? and that as a a result there is a chance he could be playing the position that they otherwise might be playing? and as a result would it not be fair to ponder on how that would impact their futures and how the Twins would now use them? ALSO, would it also not be fair to say that if 2 teams who REALLY wanted him but were concerned about his health, and as a result he said he would switch positions presumably to stay healthy for the long run (or maybe it was just to play in NY and that was the only place he would switch to 3B) then would it not be a fair question to ponder on if him moving to 3B for the Twins would also make help keep him healthy in the long run? And if so then what impact would THAT have on the presumed otherwise starter at 3B? Of course you "slot in prospects". Especially on a team that has historically been fiscally conservative. contracts matter. Yes you have to earn playing time, primarily in Spring training. But I honestly do not think someone has to OUTPLAY Kepler to get the job. If the Twins think they can get EQUAL contributions from any of Larnach, Kiriloff, Wallner, etc then they will trade Kepler and save the money. Secondly, even if you "beat someone out" in Spring Training, that is still just Spring Training, Where is anyone saying to pass on better players??? I guess maybe I should have phrased the question... and what I hoped would be fun debate, would be "How do you put together the best team surrounding Correa if we are lucky enough to sign? And golly gee willickers that sure would be swell if we could!" Another aspect of building a team is/are option. If one player has options left and the other does not, then more often than not... and even on the best teams, the player who has options left gets sent down. And actually, your very first sentence hits to the point of this thread, You say... "n my opinion--you take the best players you can and plug them in to make your team." Who are you best players? and where would you play them? it is FUN to speculate!! :)

Who says I aint glad? and YES we would be asking how it impacts other pitchers. We would for instance assume that possibly one of the current top 5 gets moved to the bullpen to boost the bullpen. then of course if there is current junk in the pen they would be gone. talking about how one player might impact other players is not griping about signing "The Good One"!!! It is wondering (excitiedly) how the rest of the team will fill out to build out the best championship contending team possible. again what makes you think this discussion is about whether we would WANT to incorporate him? I think you misread the tome/meaning of this post. You think there weren't discussions in New York about what signing Correa would mean for Brett Baty? and Eduardo Escobar? and what the potential shift of Baty to the OF would do for THAT group? And how it would have sucked to lose a fan favorite in Escobar? Even at the expense of getting a much better player? I WANTED Correa, and I am EXCITED he is here ( I wouldn't have been if it was 10 years). And I am excited to talk... ok ramble incessantly and incomprehensibly... about the myriad of possibilities the Twins could do to field the final lineup. Aint gonna apologies for that. :) GO TWINS!!!

Assuming, he paases OUR physical... lol. Nwo that Correa is signed How do the Twins use him this year? and how does it impact others? Check out the poll attached and let us know. IF you choose "other" please share what you think the Twins should do with him (or others).

Sorry for the quick double post, but just read an article at MLBtraderumors.com that Ken Rosenthal and Dan Hayes have both reported this. OK, so lets assume this happens.. what is the trickle down? #1 I say we go and also sign Nelson Cruz. pair them up!!! they both love Miranda and want to work with him!! :) But for those already on the team what does it mean? What does it mean for current future infield? We just traded for Kyle Farmer, does this now mean we will look to flip him somewhere? What Kind of SS/IF needy teams remain? and what could we get? For Royce Lewis this means SS is blocked, so he is now an OF candidate when he returns. Brooks Lee, he would also have otherwise most likely made his MLB debut this September, what is HIS new home? Coudl either of them move to 3B? well Miranda is slated for 3B, Could Miranda stay at 1B? What does that do for Kirilloff and Arraez? What does it mean for veteran players? Signing Correa would show we are looking to contend. Do you want to contend with unproven players in OF such as Larnach, Wallner, Kirillof, Austin Martin, even Royce lewis who is out for a but still? or do you want to roll with Kepler? If the Twins make a FININCIAL follow up move then Kepler is gone as his $8.5M may be too much for potential equal numbers from any above... but again POTENTIAL. You also do not trade a controllable young sparkplug batting champ if you are looking to contend, but then again look at the trickle down moves a Correa signing does. if the option would be to put Miranda at 1B and have either Farmer, or eventually Lee man 3B then where does Arraez get his ABs? Are you going to keep him as DH? What does this mean for prospects? We were already in a position where our near MLB prospects and current position players were going to be coming to a crunch. The OF/1B/DH trio where we have the above mentioned Larnach, Wallner, Kiriloff, Austin Martin near ready, Royce Lewis when healthy is a go, Brooks Lee is a quick to the bigs player, not to mention players liek Edouard Julien who coudl be pushing for time. All while have roster spots fill by Kepler, Gallo, Polanco, Gordon, Now Farmer (not including my desire to sign Cruz as DH lol). That is a lot of MLB ready/near MLB ready talent and you hate to let them rot on the vine by keeping them all. SO who goes? iF Correa signs at least 3, maybe 4 of these players will not be with the Twins come opening day. they will be traded for pitching. If Correa was willing to move to 3rd in NY, would he be willing here? IF he is (and he will most likely at SOME point during career) then Id say the thing to do is... Correa pays 3B start with Farmer until Lewis or Lee are ready. Miranda plays 1B. Polanco gets to stay at 2B. This makes Arraez expendable (sadly) and he will be one of the guys with the highest trade value so you move him. Trade both Kiriloff and Kepler, and the OF is Buxton Gallo and Larnach, with Wallner as DH (unless we sign Cruz). You actually call Miami and see if they are interested in a BIG trade where we get multiple of there available pitchers. Say Max Meyer, and Pablo Lopez for Arraez, Kepler and Kiriloff. Anyways... How exactly do you see teh Twins addressing the redundancies if Correa DOES sign??

So as I was thinking about my off teh wall deal to benefit from and help the Mets secure Carlos Correa, I thought of a way that a trade would be legal under current rules (presumably) The end result is still the same. it allows the Mets to offset the risk of the final couple of years of Correa's 12 year $315M contract due to the ankle. Currently there are deals that include PTBNL. Currently the CBA allows for "cash considerations" to come into play to help offset the cost of salaries being moved from one team to the next. SO lets take those two known and accepted trade chips. The Twins trade Max Kepler (With the expectation that the Mets must immediately pick up the team option for him for 2024) along with recently signed Christian Vasquez. The Twins also send the Mets "Cash Considerations" in the amount of $50M. Of course the Twins woudl need a significant return by trading away their starting catcher and RF AND kicking in $50M to basically cover 100% of their salaries. Or at least as far as the trade goes that is why we are kicking in money, and nto to pay the final years of Correa's deal **wink wink**. In return the Twins get Francisco Alvarez, and Player(s)To Be Named Later. lets say at least 2 if not 3 additional PTBNL. That is a straight up trade that is fair and within MLB guidelines... I presume. If we can structure the $50M payout over time, then we pay $1M for each of the next 10 years, and then $20M each in year 11 & year 12. Of course this coincidentally coincides with the final 2 years of Correa's deal, and if it is front loaded the first 2 years of the deal at $33M instead of the $26.25 AAV and then the last 2 years are at $20M. Now the Mets have themselves some insurance against injury. If it CANT be paid out like that, and has to be paid out over the course of the existing contracts, then we simply pay $18.5M this year, $20M next year and $10M the third year, and it is up to the Mets to use those funds to offset Correas deal at the back end. The PTBNL must be chosen within 6 months. the MLB player draft is 7/9-7/11, so we agree in principle on a trade, but do not execute it until just before Spring training to allow for any player the Mets pick in the draft to be eligible to be a PTBNL. SO what kind of haul would we get in this scenario? well lets assume whoever the Mets take in teh 1st round of the draft is a solid propsect. It would look something like... #1 Francisco Alvarez - the top prospect in all of baseball, and potentially secure our catching situation for the next decade. then 3 PTBNL PTBNL #1: Possibly Brett Baty, a MLB ready top prospect. he is a 3B/OF so somewhat redundant to what we already have but quality young depth is nto a bad thing!!! PTBNL #2: Lets assume whoever the Mets take in teh 1st round of teh draft. PTBNL #3: Lots of options, could go with big bats that are also near MLB ready like Ronny Mauricio, Mark Vientos, Or could go super young with a prospect like 17 year old Simon Juan (compared to a young Byron Buxton/George Springer) to "layer arrivals". OR could try a pitching prospect like Blade Tidwell. and while you could say the Twins cannot afford to pay out $50M. But there is a way you can rationalize it. The Twins would have been on the hook for at least $40M, and the whole $50M if we would have picked up Kepler's option for next year at $10M. So if we would have been paying that for Vasquez & Kepler, and we have league minimum players in Alvarez, and one of Baty, Wallner, Larnach, Kiriloff replacing Kepler, all at league minimum, and all being potential upgrades, then it really is a wash. The Mets can afford to move Alvarez, because they still have the #4 catching prospect who is also near MLB ready AND would have Vasquez in place for the short term. And with Correa going to 3rd, Baty also becomes somewhat expendable. There was talk of him moving to OF, but they get very good defender in Kepler who has potential to be a good bat as well. I would say a Correa/Kepler combo would out Produce a Alvarez/Baty combo for a contending team. This is a deal that can get done independently of them signign Correa, but get done with the signing of Correa in mind for the Mets.

Not to be negative, but I was hoping this would have been a touch more creative. Let me recap... Royce Lewis Resolution = Be good Brooks Lee Resolution = Be good Emmanuel Rodriguez Resolution = Be good Connor Prielipp Resolution = Be good Simeon Woods Richardson Resolution = Be good BRILLIANT!!!

Yes, I can agree to that. another LH bat that plays 1st and occasional OF could be redundant. For 100% transparency I am just a big Dominic Smith fan. But yeah we would need to move Kirilloff and Arraez... AND Kepler to make Dom a good fit. Shoudl we move 3 players just to resign 1 similar player? I guess it all depends on what we can get for the three, and the cost of the one. but again since I am a Dom fan I say YES!!!!! hehe. And interesting you bring up Cruz, I was going to include him as well. LOL WHile we want to get away from a a DH only type, and is Cruz's last 1.5 seasons his eventual decline? I dont care!! he is a great hitter that can teach young guys and a great clubhouse presence and would love Boomstick back in this lineup!! :)

This is all of course predicated on Correa staying in New York. Also a couple of these moves are related to each other. #1 Trading redundant players. Not breaking any news here. Kepler and even Arraez have both been mentioned as trade candidates. Especially after the Joey Gallo signing. Yes the Twins could very easily keep Kepler and go with an OF of Kepler, Buxton, Gallo. AND if they feel Kepler will have a strong season with the shift rules changes, then the best move is to keep him and potentially trade him for higher value at the deadline. If he has a strong 1st half then that $10M team option for next year greatly increases his trade value. I am not sure what the trade value is for either Kepler or Arraez, so I am not going to sit here and say.. Lets trade Kepler for Sandy Alcantara to improve our pitching This trade group is also not limited to Kepler, Wallner, Larnach, Kirilloff could all also be slotted into this scenario. We cannot play them all, and there may even be better overall fits out there instead of them (although I like Wallner and Larnach). And this brings me to move #2... #2 Sign Domnic Smith. I still cannot believe he is unsigned. Dom is not a game changer, but he can play GG caliber defense at 1B. and has a very solid bat, with even "great bat" potential. He never got consistent ABs at his natural 1B position with the Mets. He could be signed at a very team friendly deal at this point. If there is decent trade value in Kirilloff, Kepler, any other LH or potential 1B on this squad then trading them and signing Dom is a great move, because not only would we secure Dom cheaply, but also get some return for players he will replace. #3 Call Texas regarding Ezequiel Duran. This again is dependent on what else we do, especially if we trade Arraez. Yes we have Farmer as a potential SS/utility IF kind of guy, but Ezequiel Duran can play MORE positions, is younger/cheaper, and I think an overall superior bat. he is a natural 2B, but can play 3B & SS, and has gotten some time in the OF. with Seager, Simien, Jung on the IF he is blocked. Maybe this is a good swap with Kepler as Texas is still looking for an OF. and while I like Polanco at 2B he is $7.5M this year and $10.5 next. SO this also helps free up cash IF the Twins ever decide to step up and pay in the deep end of the FA pool. AND... While I said these moves assume Correa stays with Mets. These moves make even MORE sense if something weird happens where Mets back out and the Twins can get Correa for something along the lines of the 10 years $285M they offered, although I would do something more like 8 for $250. (Higher AAV but less long-term risk). As these moves would clear $16M this year and $12-20M depending on options next year and replace with equal offensive output in Dom Smith & Duran). Dom's position wouldn't be the same, but bat for bat Smith would be an upgrade over Kepler, and allow one of Larnach, Kirilloff, Wallner to play the 3rd OF spot.