E. Andrew

This is great, thanks Seth!

Download attachment: monster.PNG Hope for the 2013 season has faded, but Joe Mauer's dominance in the batter's box continues. Among many changes to the lineup, batting him second - not third - has been one move that Gardenhire has stuck to. But while it has led to an increase in plate appearances, the switch, among other factors, has led to a decrease in runs batted in. Several influences contribute, but the basics are obvious: an RBI requires a runner to be on-base. A look at the averages of those batting in front of Mauer reveals the hard evidence. The opportunities to bat second or third in an inning provide the best data. If Mauer bats fourth in an inning or later, he has a chance to do damage. If he bats first, an RBI is impossible. He can be driven in, of course, and help the offense, but he won't be able to produce others' runs, and he'd face the situation often, regardless of his position in the lineup. In 2013, Mauer has batted .386/.442/.514 (AVG/OBP/SLG) when leading off the inning. He's clearly doing his job there. Of course, Mauer bats second in the inning at the start of most games, and frequently thereafter. This season, he's had few opportunities to advance runners. The Twins' leadoff spot has been a Frankenstein's monster of ineffective plate appearances by ten different players, with the majority coming from Dozier, Carroll, Thomas, and Hicks. With a line of .199/.262/.300, this is by far the uggliest monster of all that has batted first in the Gardenhire era. The .562 OPS also makes up the third-weakest batter at any position since 2002, trailing only the 8th and 9th batters from 2011. While no one player has been quite this awful alone, a combination of poor timing and bad luck has led to exceptionally low averages at the top of the order. Batting second in the inning, Mauer comes to the plate with a runner-on just 26% of the time. Batting third in an inning, Joe's chance of driving in runs improves considerably. Mutually inclusive probability demonstrates that the ninth or first batter (or perhaps both) will regularly be on base when Mauer comes up. But at just 46% in 2013, the combination has the lowest rate in the Gardenhire era, thanks to the .268 OBP at the bottom of the lineup. For the purposes of comparison, look back at 2009. Then, the second spot could expect the ninth or first batter to be manning the bases in 59% of his appearances. That spot's modest .700 OPS drove in an impressive 94 runs, the most from that position since 2002. Mauer batted there just 32 times in 2009; the majority of the RBIs came from the motley crew of Orlando Cabrera, Brendan Harris, and Alexi Casilla. But in 2013, the bottom and top of the order are in shambles, and it's hurt Mauer's normally impressive stats. He could expect a bit more personal production if he followed two men in the first inning, but after that, little would change. Simply put, batters owe their RBI's to the players hitting in front of them. The immediate correlation is obvious. Runs come to those who get on base. But how do the on-base abilities at the top and bottom of the order set up the offense in general? Here is a graph of the yearly likelihood that the ninth or first batter was on-base for the second batter, along with a comparison with the overall runs per game. Download attachment: graphy.PNG Of course, correlation does not grant causation; many factors contribute to overall offense. But again, runners need to be on base for others to drive them in. The exceptionally stagnant performances at the top and bottom of the lineup have hurt the team immensely. Mauer is a great fit for the second spot. In a better offense, his ability to consistently reach first would advance runners and set up the heart of the order perfectly. But as the best bat on the team, his switch has sacrificed RBI potential for more plate appearances, with no one to follow his lead. As we've seen in the past, he can be dangerous hitting third as well, but there's little available to fill the hole he'd leave. Unfortunately, Joe Mauer can't bat after Joe Mauer. If only we had two. Click here to view the article

In a lost season, baseball fans take what they can get. Most get by on hope, and for the Twins, looking toward the future has begun as early as ever. Before elbow surgery, Kyle Gibson's name often topped lists of reasons to keep the faith. Though he's stumbled out of the gate, he has the tools to work at the top of the rotation, and he has the freedom to develop on-the-job. Here are five areas where Gibson can improve as he gains confidence in his pitches and trust in his catchers and coaches, beginning tonight. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] Download attachment: chia.JPG [TABLE=width: 357] [TD=colspan: 4]CONTROL WITH RUNNERS ON BASE[/TD] (Plate Apps) AVG/OBP/OPS [/TD] SO/BB With RISP Gibson (34) .367/.412/.845 [TD=align: right]1.50 Twins .291/.356/.798 [/TD][TD=align: right]1.57 AL .259/.336/.736 [/TD][TD=align: right]1.89 [/TABLE] Traditional theory assumes most batters swing more freely with men on, looking for RBIs. But when pitching to them, Gibson leaves too many balls over the middle of the plate instead of consistently working the corners. Some may be mistakes, but others are untimely efforts to stay ahead of the batter. He spends little time "watching" runners back to the bag, instead working quickly after receiving the sign. While it's wise to trust base-stealing threats to veteran defenders, Gibson often looks too eager to rush the pitch and make up for the mistakes that put men on. Statistically, pitching performance shouldn't change dramatically with runners on base. Continuing at a natural pace and keeping the ball down and away from the batter - especially with his slider - will not only keep batters off-balance, but should induce ground balls and lead to more missed bats. [TABLE=width: 357] [TD=colspan: 4]TAKING WHAT'S EARNED[/TD] After 0-1 Count [/TD] Gibson (46) .275/.348/.648 [TD=align: right]3.33 Twins .241/.279/.638 [/TD][TD=align: right]5.08 AL .226/.265/.612 [/TD][TD=align: right]6.36 [/TABLE] After taking an 0-1 lead in the count, pitchers should gain a sizable advantage. Though Gibson is getting first pitch strikes at nearly the 60% league average, he converts them to outs far less often than his peers. After grabbing two strikes - an even greater lead - Gibson has a modest 2.20 SO/BB, compared to an AL average of 5.26. Some of the fault lies with Mauer, but that's to be expected. As both gain confidence in their game plan and pitch selection, strikeout rates will improve. SLIDER COMMAND Baseball America ranked Gibson's slider as the best in the Twins' organization after each of the last four seasons, but it's been his least "valuable" pitch in his short time in the majors. In his home collapse against the Yankees on July 4th, he relied heavily on the breaking ball and off-spead pitches (both 22%, vs. 56% fastball). Ten days later he found relative success in New York by dialing in on his command and increasing his power pitches to 71% (vs. 17% breaking balls and 12% off-speed). A lot of the damage on the slider is due to tough luck (.400 opponent BABIP), and it's still been his best pitch in producing swinging strikes. Expect to see usage rate increase as he gains confidence. Combining it with his controlled fastball and quality change-up will produce a powerful out-pitch and lead to a more impressive K-rate. [TABLE=width: 357] [TD=colspan: 4]GAME PROGRESSION[/TD] [TD=colspan: 4]Gibson vs. Batter[/TD] 1st PA (36) .303/.333/.727 [/TD][TD=align: right]3.00 2nd PA (36) .467/.556/1.122 [/TD][TD=align: right]0.50 [TD=colspan: 4]Twins(Starters) vs. Batter[/TD] 1st PA .307/.356/.823 [/TD][TD=align: right]1.86 2nd PA .285/.343/.775 [/TD][TD=align: right]1.68 [TD=colspan: 4]AL(Starters) vs. Batter[/TD] 1st PA .258/.315/.729 [/TD][TD=align: right]2.82 2nd PA .261/.323/.749 [/TD][TD=align: right]2.34 [/TABLE] Of course, hitters tend to improve slightly each time they face a pitcher in a game, but opposing batters have crushed Gibson after their first time up. Mauer has seen enough of the AL bats to have a feel for their strengths, but as noted previously, he hasn't seen enough of Gibson to embrace new combinations. His release points are consistent, and his velocity and movement look good. As Gibson's confidence develops and reliable pitch varieties follow, he should regain some ground. [TABLE=width: 357] [TD=colspan: 4]HANDLING LEFTIES[/TD] Gibson [/TD] vs. RHB (44) .231/.318/.626 [TD=align: right]3.00 vs. LHB (58) .380/.448/.908 [/TD][TD=align: right]0.33 Twins (RHPs) [/TD] vs. RHB .281/.331/.745 [TD=align: right]2.45 vs. LHB .285/.346/.791 [/TD][TD=align: right]1.68 AL (RHPs) [/TD] vs. RHB .251/.308/.705 [TD=align: right]3.16 vs. LHB .261/.330/.754 [/TD][TD=align: right]2.10 [/TABLE] Simply put, these splits are far too extreme to last. Gibson wouldn't be here if lefties could hit him at this rate. He's faced very well-coached (if only traditionally-potent) AL East lineups three times, and there are always adjustments to be made on the first go-around in the big show. He's a first-round draft pick, and he's earned his trip to the big leagues. Fear not. There’s been plenty of change across the club, and plenty of losses to match it. But the light is growing at the end of the tunnel. Though Twins fans will work to forget 2013, they can remember watching their future stars grow. Here's hoping Kyle Gibson becomes one of them. Click here to view the article

Good story. It took just the first ground ball to him for me to have a huge amount of respect for his defense, and to know it will quickly be forgotten. Like Mike Redmond, I enjoyed having him on the team.

Nice article, very true.

I heard Breslow on the radio once (maybe MPR?) talking about his foundation for childhood cancer research. Struck me as an awesome, super level-headed guy. I looked up his personal statement at the foundation website: Message from Craig || Strike 3 Foundation I'm happy he spent a little time with the club. Happy bday!

It's only the topspin on his fastball that was 'new' and came out consistently on that Seattle start, all of his hard/normal pitches have slow spin. 2013 Averages: Four-Seam: 763 RPM (Technically a..) Cutter: 621 RPM Change-up: 520 RPM Samuel Deduno, Minnesota Twins - PITCHf/x Pitcher Profile - TexasLeaguers.com Sorry I missed the further comments til now, I very much appreciate everyone's interest!

[ATTACH=CONFIG]5119[/ATTACH] Hope for the 2013 season has faded, but Joe Mauer's dominance in the batter's box continues. Among many changes to the lineup, batting him second - not third - has been one move that Gardenhire has stuck to. But while it will lead to an increase in plate appearances, the switch, among other factors, has led to a decrease in runs batted in. Several influences contribute, but the basics are obvious: an RBI requires a runner to be on-base. A look at the averages of those batting in front of Mauer reveals some hard evidence. The opportunities to bat second or third in an inning provide the best data. If Mauer bats fourth or later, he has the chance to do damage. If he bats first, an RBI is impossible. He can be driven in, of course, and help the offense, but he won't be able to create others' runs, and he'd face the situation often, regardless of his position in the lineup. In 2013, Mauer has batted .386/.442/.514 (AVG/OBP/SLG) when leading off the inning. He's clearly doing his job there. Of course, Mauer bats second in the inning at the start of most games, and frequently thereafter. This season, he's had few opportunities to advance runners. The Twins' leadoff spot is a Frankenstein's monster of ineffective plate appearances by ten different players, with the majority coming from Dozier, Carroll, Thomas, and Hicks. With a line of .199/.262/.300, this is by far the uggliest monster of all that have batted first in the Gardenhire era. The .562 OPS also makes up the third-weakest batter at any position since 2002, trailing only the 8th and 9th batters from 2011. While no one player has been quite this awful alone, a combination of poor timing and bad luck has led to exceptionally low averages at the top of the order. Batting second in the inning, Mauer comes to the plate with a runner-on just 26% of the time. Batting third in the inning, Joe's chance of driving in runs improves considerably. Mutually inclusive probability demonstrates that the ninth or first batter (or perhaps both) will regularly be on base when Mauer comes up. But at just 46% in 2013, the combination has the lowest rate in the Gardenhire era, thanks to the .268 OBP at the bottom of the lineup. In 2009, the second spot could expect the ninth or first batter to be manning the bases in 59% of his appearances. That third batter's modest .700 OPS drove in an impressive 94 runs, the most at the position since 2002. Mauer batted there just 32 times in 2009; the majority of the RBIs came from the motley crew of Orlando Cabrera, Brendan Harris, and Alexi Casilla. In 2013, the bottom and top of the order are in shambles, and it's hurt Mauer's normally impressive stats. He could expect a bit more personal production if he followed two men in the first inning, but after that, little would change. Simply put, batters owe their RBIs to the players hitting in front of them. The immediate correlation is obvious. Runs come to those who get on base. But how do the on-base abilities at the top and bottom of the order set up the offense in general? Here is a graph of the yearly likelihood that the ninth or first batter was on-base for the second batter, along with a comparison with the overall runs per game. [ATTACH=CONFIG]5120[/ATTACH] Of course, correlation does not grant causation; many factors contribute to overall offense. But again, runners need to be on base for others to drive them in. The exceptionally stagnant performance at the top and bottom of the lineup has hurt the team immensely. Mauer is a great fit for the second spot. In a better offense, his ability to consistently reach first would advance runners and set up the heart of the order perfectly. But as the best bat on the team, his switch has sacrificed RBI potential for more plate appearances, with no one to follow his lead. As we've seen in the past, he could be dangerous hitting third as well, but there's little available to fill the hole he'd leave. Unfortunately, Joe Mauer can't bat after Joe Mauer. If only we had two.

Edit: Hopefully even more succinct: Deduno has three pitches: Wild Fastball - Incredibly-slow (Back)spin Wild Change-up - Incredibly-Slow (Back)spin Curve Ball - Normal Rate of (Top)spin The fastball and change-up have extremely inconsistent spin angles, wherein a pitch can resemble anything from a four-seam to a cutter. On Saturday*, he showed that he can - likely deliberately - also throw these two pitches with topspin, in directions that are most often achieved with a knuckleball. *And in several games last year. _ _ _ Did this and the graph as quickly as possible, hopefully it answers the above... Based on his incredibly low spin rate on all pitches except the curve, it must be assumed that he has always (to some extent) 'pushed' the ball, as opposed to creating a 'normal amount' of backspin by rolling the ball off the fingers, the traditional baseball throw/pitch. This is odd, accounts for the erratic movement, and suggests a knuckleball-type grip. A curve/slider with topspin falls in the 0 to 90 degree range of spin angle for RHPs, 270 to 360 for LHP. This is easy to illustrate (once I had read a few papers on magnus force ); imagine you are the catcher with this graph in front of your mask. The ball is coming at you spinning in the given direction. http://i.imgur.com/0czG6Pe.png The graph is simply reversed (though the grid stays the same) for a LHP. Until Deduno (or a knuckleballer), I hadn't encountered a pitcher that consistently enters the 'dead zone' as illustrated above. The pitcher would need to somehow create topspin, and force the ball to break in the opposite direction from their curve/slider. The occasional odd 'sinkerballs' can track that way, the errant ball (typically a weird change-up grip) could slip out of the hand, the ball could be spit on, or they could be 'pushing' the ball with knuckle (figertip) grip. Based on the 70 or so Deduno photos I've looked at, the last seems the most probable. He's thrown this way in a handful of games in the last two seasons, but consistently on Saturday. Here's Correia. Again, a fastbal/change-up can 'slip' out of the hand and track a small amount of topsin. But the vast majority of his hard stuff falls between 90 and 270, backspin. http://imgur.com/YbbFUOP Kevin Correia, Minnesota Twins - PITCHf/x Pitcher Profile - TexasLeaguers.com I can't accurately speak to Deduno's future development / categorization. I have to guess that at the very least Cuellar, Anderson, Mauer, Doumit, and Hermann know about the weird spin.

Notice anything weird about this [URL="http://a.espncdn.com/combiner/i?img=media%2Fgettyphoto%2F2012%5C07%5C22%5C149049791.jpg"]photo[/URL]? [CENTER] [attachment=6348:3024.attach] ***[/CENTER] Samuel Deduno is off and running in 2013. He leads Twins starters in ERA and FIP, as well as opponent batting average, WHIP, and ground-ball percentage. But he’s well known for his unpredictable pitches, and without a full major-league season at age 30, they've held him back. How wild are they?[PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] [CENTER][attachment=6347:3025.attach] [/CENTER] R.A. Dickey is the league’s best definition of “effectively wild". Here’s a graph of his pitches on Friday, primarily knuckleballs. At FanGraphs, [URL="http://sabr.org/latest/sheppard-tracking-ra-dickeys-knuckleball"]Drew Sheppard noted[/URL] that “the ideal knuckleball makes just 1 to 1.5 rotations (~150 RPM) between release and home plate, causing the drag on the ball to shift significantly mid-flight as the leading seam of the ball rotates slightly, resulting in unpredictable and uniquely sudden movement.” Not all of Dickey’s knuckleballs spin quite that slowly, but many do, and he’s averaging a respectable 935 RPM on the season (vs. 1600 RPM on his fastball, a good benchmark for the league). Spin angle helps to keep the hitters guessing. As the fingertips push “through” the ball, they roll either under the leather, creating a slight amount of backspin, or over, creating a small amount of topspin. On this graph, anything between 90 and 270 degrees represents backspin. The pitches outside that range have topspin. Here is a graph of Deduno’s 2013 season, prior to this weekend. I added a few notes on the application of spin angle. His non-curve pitches hardly spin consistently (and he’s credited with a “cutter” for that reason), but except for the occasional “errant change”, they have backspin, as a fastball and change-up normally do. [CENTER][attachment=6346:3026.attach] [/CENTER] Now here are two graphs from Saturday’s game in Seattle, a non-televised blackout in both Minnesota and Washington. [CENTER][attachment=6349:3027.attach][attachment=6350:3028.attach] [/CENTER] Please return your seat backs to their full upright and locked position.* Ignore pitch classification. On Saturday, Deduno threw a 90+ MPH pitch that frequently spun over the top, adding to gravity’s effect. His non-curve pitches averaged less than 550 RPM, and his change-up spun half as fast as Dickey’s knuckleball, moving at roughly the same velocity. Many of Deduno’s pitches approached that ideal "barely spinning" mark of 150 RPM. That’s essentially impossible with any traditional fastball/change-up grip. In July, his fastballs have averaged ~700 RPM. For a righty, a spin angle between 270 and 360 degrees means a ball breaking down, but in the opposite direction from their curve/slider. The numbers are incredible. Deduno has entered new territory. The PITCHf/x machine isn’t broken; this isn’t the first time he’s done this. He brought out the same pitch in a hand-full of games [URL="http://pitchfx.texasleaguers.com/pitcher/465679/?batters=A&count=AA&pitches=AA&from=4%2F1%2F2012&to=10%2F10%2F2012"]last year[/URL]. This time around, he met or set [URL="http://www.fangraphs.com/statsd.aspx?playerid=5285&position=P&type=2&gds=&gde=&season=2013"]season bests[/URL] in earned runs, strikeouts, WHIP, and ground-ball percentage. He looked** good, if not great, and he kept Doumit’s glove moving. One year ago today, [URL="http://twinsdaily.com/853-sam-deduno-his-crazy-fastball.html"]Parker Hageman introduced us[/URL] to Deduno’s fastball. He noted that “when asked about the possibility of being ‘effectively wild’... Twins pitching coach Rick Anderson joked, ‘Ask Mauer, he says it’s like catching R.A. Dickey.’” What’s Deduno throwing? It’s tough – if not impossible – to say. But it might be time to call it what it is. Notice anything weird about that photo? * [I]Fight Club[/I] reference. Hopefully I'm not losing anyone. ** Thank god for MLB.tv. View full article

Notice anything weird about this photo? [ATTACH=CONFIG]5008[/ATTACH] *** Samuel Deduno is off and running in 2013. He leads Twins starters in ERA and FIP, as well as opponent batting average, WHIP, and ground-ball percentage. But he’s well known for his unpredictable pitches, and without a full major-league season at age 30, they've held him back. How wild are they? [ATTACH=CONFIG]5009[/ATTACH] R.A. Dickey is the league’s best definition of “effectively wild". Here’s a graph of his pitches on Friday, primarily knuckleballs. At FanGraphs, Drew Sheppard noted that “the ideal knuckleball makes just 1 to 1.5 rotations (~150 RPM) between release and home plate, causing the drag on the ball to shift significantly mid-flight as the leading seam of the ball rotates slightly, resulting in unpredictable and uniquely sudden movement.” Not all of Dickey’s knuckleballs spin quite that slowly, but many do, and he’s averaging a respectable 935 RPM on the season (vs. 1600 RPM on his fastball, a good benchmark for the league). Spin angle helps to keep the hitters guessing. As the fingertips push “through” the ball, they roll either under the leather, creating a slight amount of backspin, or over, creating a small amount of topspin. On this graph, anything between 90 and 270 degrees represents backspin. The pitches outside that range have topspin. Here is a graph of Deduno’s 2013 season, prior to this weekend. I added a few notes on the application of spin angle. His non-curve pitches hardly spin consistently (and he’s credited with a “cutter” for that reason), but except for the occasional “errant change”, they have backspin, as a fastball and change-up normally do. [ATTACH=CONFIG]5010[/ATTACH] Now here are two graphs from Saturday’s game in Seattle, a non-televised blackout in both Minnesota and Washington. [ATTACH=CONFIG]5011[/ATTACH][ATTACH=CONFIG]5012[/ATTACH] Please return your seat backs to their full upright and locked position.* Ignore pitch classification. On Saturday, Deduno threw a 90+ MPH pitch that frequently spun over the top, adding to gravity’s effect. His non-curve pitches averaged less than 550 RPM, and his change-up spun half as fast as Dickey’s knuckleball, moving at roughly the same velocity. Many of Deduno’s pitches approached that ideal "barely spinning" mark of 150 RPM. That’s essentially impossible with any traditional fastball/change-up grip. In July, his fastballs have averaged ~700 RPM. For a righty, a spin angle between 270 and 360 degrees means a ball breaking down, but in the opposite direction from their curve/slider. The numbers are incredible. Deduno has entered new territory. The PITCHf/x machine isn’t broken; this isn’t the first time he’s done this. He brought out the same pitch in a hand-full of games last year. This time around, he met or set season bests in earned runs, strikeouts, WHIP, and ground-ball percentage. He looked** good, if not great, and he kept Doumit’s glove moving. One year ago today, Parker Hageman introduced us to Deduno’s fastball. He noted that “when asked about the possibility of being ‘effectively wild’... Twins pitching coach Rick Anderson joked, ‘Ask Mauer, he says it’s like catching R.A. Dickey.’” What’s Deduno throwing? It’s tough – if not impossible – to say. But it might be time to call it what it is. Notice anything weird about that photo? * Fight Club reference. Hopefully I'm not losing anyone. ** Thank god for MLB.tv.