The Case for Stephen Drew
· JP3700 · 01/04/2014 03:22 AM
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JP3700
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Blog Entries posted by JP3700
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AL Central Offseason Update
· JP3700 · 12/13/2013 03:55 AM
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Josh Willingham: Breaking (him) down
· JP3700 · 12/10/2013 03:39 PM
Josh Willingham is coming off the worst full season of his career. It's very easy to say that this was due to a 34 year old player reaching his inevitable decline. But is it really that simple? I wanted to take a deeper look at the numbers to see if this was the case.
Willingham actually started his 2013 campaign off well. He continued where he had left off in 2012. Josh posted a .250/.400/.544 slash line in April. Unfortunately, that would be the only month where he was above league average at the plate. What happened?
On April 27 the Twins were playing a home game against the Texas Rangers. In that game, Willingham thought he'd show off his wheels and steal second base. It was a success! The Hammer had stolen his first base of the season. Unfortunately, in that moment of glory, Josh awkwardly slid into second base and injured his knee.
At the time, it didn't seem to be too serious. However, it became increasingly clear that something wasn't right. Willingham continued to play the next two months. Between April 27 and June 30 he posted a slash line of .214/.342/.353. The decision was finally made for Josh to have surgery.
On August 9 Willingham rushed back to his team and made his return to the lineup. Like the good teammate that he is, he came back ahead of schedule. Unfortunately, he was not rewarded for it. After his return Pedro Flo.. I mean Willingham finished the season hitting .182/.318/.315.
Did Willingham really decline that much? Did he go from being a power hitting outfielder to a light hitting middle infielder?
Let's take a look at some secondary numbers, to really evaluate whether his regression was due to decline or more injury related.
2013 Career
LD%: 18.3 19.0
GB%: 36.5 36.9
FB%: 45.2 44.1
IFFB%: 17.6 12.8
HR/FB: 11.8 15.1
As you can see. Other than hitting more infield pop ups and his HR to FB ratio dropping, everything else is in line with his career numbers.
Now, let's take a look at his plate discipline. This will compare his approach in 2013 to his career year in 2012.
2012 2013
BB%: 12.4 14.0
K%: 22.9 27.2
O-Sw%: 21.7 21.5
Z-SW%: 62.7 59.8
SW%: 40.4 38.6
SwStr%: 9.5 10.3
Just in case you aren't aware. O-Sw% is the percentage of pitches the batter swings at outside the strike zone. Z-Sw% is the percentage of pitches the batter swings at inside the strike zone. Sw% is the total percentage of pitches a batter swings at. SwStr% is the batter's swinging strike percentage.
It looks like Josh took a more patient approach. Swinging at less pitches. Which helps explain his increase in walk and strike out rates. The increase in SwStr% is a little worrisome, but it isn't a big enough jump to worry too much about. The big thing to me is that his O-Sw% was the same. Meaning he wasn't chasing bad pitches. For a comparison, Oswaldo Arcia had a 37.3 O-Sw% in 2013.
All in all, I see very little that tells me Willingham was a much different hitter in 2013. He got on base, he struck out and he hit fly balls. The thing that went missing was his power. However, his power outage seemed to correlate with his knee injury.
Is it fair to think that Willingham's early season .944 OPS would have come down to earth? Of course. I think it's also fair to think that the injury, along with rushing back from it, were the main reasons for his horrible 2013. If the Hammer shows up healthy in 2014, I think his career .830 OPS is a reasonable projection.
Let's just hope he doesn't go Darin Mastroianni on us again.
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Strike while it's hot: Mariners Trade
· JP3700 · 12/07/2013 08:02 AM
This off-season has been a crazy one. A lot of the big name free agents are already off the board and we're not even at the winter meetings yet. What has also been interesting is the amount of significant trades that have been made.
Trades are, by far, the most interesting transaction in any sport. There are usually winners and losers, and they are often fun to discuss and breakdown. For trades to happen, a lot of things have to come together. Supply and demand, the amount of money being exchanged, and the needs of the teams involved, are all important factors. This is where those three factors, all come together.
The Mariners just signed Robinson Cano to a 10 year, $240 million contract. This was a curious move because they are coming off of a 71 win season. Pitchers Felix Hernandez and Hisashi Iwakuma, along with third baseman Kyle Seager, are the only impact players on their team. So what's their plan? Even with the Cano signing, the M's still have about $40-50 million dollars to spend. Some more good news is that they have plenty of young players with upside.
Unfortunately, with a narrow window, they can't afford to wait on those players to develop. The M's have been linked to David Price, to form a trio that would compete with any front three in baseball. Their other needs include a couple of right handed power bats, a back of the rotation innings eater, and a closer.
My proposed trade..
Trade Glen Perkins, Josh Willingham and Kevin Correia for SS Chris Taylor, RHP Brandon Maurer, UT Stefen Romero and RHP Tom Wilhelmsen.
The proposed trade fills several needs for the Mariners, while only increasing their payroll by $16M. This leaves them with money to acquire Price and another bat like Kendrys Morales or Nelson Cruz.
Perkins is obviously the biggest piece in this trade. Glen is one of the ten best relievers in baseball, with or without the "closer" tag. Perkins will have much more value to the M's and the fact that he will only make roughly $12M in the next three years, makes him one of the bigger bargains in baseball.
Willingham and Correia are both players that have one year left on their contract. With Cano and King Felix eating up $50M for years to come, the M's will look for as much financial flexibility as possible. Hammer is coming off a down, injury riddled season. Although I hate the thought of selling low, I feel supply and demand will increase his value. Right handed power is in short supply and Josh also fills their need of a corner OF. Correia would be a perfect fit as an innings eater in that ballpark.
Now for what the Twins are getting. None of these guys are can't miss players, but they all have upside to be useful major league players. With the M's pitching depth and a crowded middle infield, they are all players they can afford to trade.
Chris Taylor is the key piece for me in this trade. He is currently the M's minor league player of the year. Known for his glove, he has great hands and feet. He also has an average to above average arm. So far his offense has kept up with his defense. At age 22, Chris spent 2013 at A+ and AA putting up a .314/.409/.455 slash line with 38 stolen bases. He has the potential to be an everyday shortstop that gets on base, provides good defense, and steals 25+ bases.
The other pieces are interchangeable. The M's have plenty of young talent. So instead of Maurer and Romero, it could be some other combination. Wilhelmsen is a sweetener, so you can also replace him with another prospect.
The Mariners have a limited budget to work with, they have needs to fill and they have the prospects to trade. Now is the time to strike and maximize the value on our players.
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Finding Value: Eric Fryer
· JP3700 · 11/29/2013 11:47 PM
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Maximizing a very good Bullpen
· JP3700 · 02/16/2014 11:26 PM
Lost in a miserable 96 loss season was the Minnesota Twins bullpen and how good they were. How good were they you ask? This is how they ranked in the AL in some major categories.
[TABLE=class: grid, width: 500]
IP
1st
ERA
5th
WHIP
3rd
K/BB
5th
Opponent OPS
5th
[/TABLE]
Despite being overused and leading the league in innings pitched by a significant margin, the Twins bullpen ranked in the top 5 in the AL in four major categories used in judging performance. That's the good news. Some even better news is how much better they can be if used more efficiently.
The Closer: Glen Perkins
We all know how good Perkins is. One of the top 10 relievers in the game, Perkins has been dominant since transitioning to the bullpen in 2011. Here are his numbers in the last three seasons.
[TABLE=class: grid, width: 500]
[/TD]
K%
BB%
K/BB
WHIP
FIP
ERA
Overall
28.4%
6.7%
4.23
1.06
2.71
2.45
Vs. RHB
29.3%
6.9%
4.23
1.10
3.00
-
Vs. LHB
26.9%
6.3%
4.24
0.99
2.18
-
[/TABLE]
Dominant against both right handed and left handed batters, Perkins is entrenched as the Twins' closer. And we all should be okay with that.
The "RH Specialists" : Casey Fien, Jared Burton and Anthony Swarzak
Okay, okay I couldn't think of anything better than "RH Specialists", but that's what these three should be. Burton and Fien have both spent time as set up guys for Perkins and Swarzak was used as a long man in 2013. Although they all did a fine job in their roles, they all really excel when facing right handed batters.
Here are their numbers facing right handed batters. I used the last two seasons for Burton and Fien. I only used 2013 for Swarzak since that was his first full year of being in the bullpen.
[TABLE=class: grid, width: 500]
K%
BB%
K/BB
WHIP
FIP
Burton
22.3%
5.1%
4.33
0.88
3.22
Fien
28.6%
4.4%
6.50
0.95
2.51
Swarzak
20.4%
4.5%
4.56
1.05
2.02
[/TABLE]
The LOOGYs : Brian Duensing and Caleb Thielbar
We all know about Duensing's troubles against right handed batters going back to his days as a starter. Last season he got to solely focus on coming out of the pen and although he ran into some bad luck (.400 BABIP), he continued to show that he can dominate left handed batters. Here were his 2013 numbers against them.
[TABLE=class: grid, width: 500]
K%
BB%
K/BB
WHIP
FIP
Duensing
27.3%
5.3%
5.14
1.45
2.75
[/TABLE]
Caleb Thielbar had an outstanding rookie season putting up a sparkling 1.76 ERA. Although he may have been a little lucky against right handed batters, he dominated left handed batters. Here were his 2013 numbers against them.
[TABLE=class: grid, width: 500]
[TD]K%
BB%
K/BB
WHIP
FIP
Thielbar
28.1%
4.9%
5.75
0.66
2.69
[/TABLE]
Conclusion
I would personally like to see the Twins eliminate the "set up man" and use these five non-Perkins relievers according to matchups. With an improved starting rotation, the Twins should be able to limit the bullpen's usage while maximizing each pitcher's strengths.
As good as they were in 2013, the Twins bullpen could be even better in 2014 (if used properly).
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Strike while it's hot: Mariners Trade
· JP3700 · 12/07/2013 08:03 AM
This off-season has been a crazy one. A lot of the big name free agents are already off the board and we're not even at the winter meetings yet. What has also been interesting is the amount of significant trades that have been made.
Trades are, by far, the most interesting transaction in any sport. There are usually winners and losers, and they are often fun to discuss and breakdown. For trades to happen, a lot of things have to come together. Supply and demand, the amount of money being exchanged, and the needs of the teams involved, are all important factors. This is where those three factors, all come together.
The Mariners just signed Robinson Cano to a 10 year, $240 million contract. This was a curious move because they are coming off of a 71 win season. Pitchers Felix Hernandez and Hisashi Iwakuma, along with third baseman Kyle Seager, are the only impact players on their team. So what's their plan? Even with the Cano signing, the M's still have about $40-50 million dollars to spend. Some more good news is that they have plenty of young players with upside.
Unfortunately, with a narrow window, they can't afford to wait on those players to develop. The M's have been linked to David Price, to form a trio that would compete with any front three in baseball. Their other needs include a couple of right handed power bats, a back of the rotation innings eater, and a closer.
My proposed trade..
Trade Glen Perkins, Josh Willingham and Kevin Correia for SS Chris Taylor, RHP Brandon Maurer, UT Stefen Romero and RHP Tom Wilhelmsen.
The proposed trade fills several needs for the Mariners, while only increasing their payroll by $16M. This leaves them with money to acquire Price and another bat like Kendrys Morales or Nelson Cruz.
Perkins is obviously the biggest piece in this trade. Glen is one of the ten best relievers in baseball, with or without the "closer" tag. Perkins will have much more value to the M's and the fact that he will only make roughly $12M in the next three years, makes him one of the bigger bargains in baseball.
Willingham and Correia are both players that have one year left on their contract. With Cano and King Felix eating up $50M for years to come, the M's will look for as much financial flexibility as possible. Hammer is coming off a down, injury riddled season. Although I hate the thought of selling low, I feel supply and demand will increase his value. Right handed power is in short supply and Josh also fills their need of a corner OF. Correia would be a perfect fit as an innings eater in that ballpark.
Now for what the Twins are getting. None of these guys are can't miss players, but they all have upside to be useful major league players. With the M's pitching depth and a crowded middle infield, they are all players they can afford to trade.
Chris Taylor is the key piece for me in this trade. He is currently the M's minor league player of the year. Known for his glove, he has great hands and feet. He also has an average to above average arm. So far his offense has kept up with his defense. At age 22, Chris spent 2013 at A+ and AA putting up a .314/.409/.455 slash line with 38 stolen bases. He has the potential to be an everyday shortstop that gets on base, provides good defense, and steals 25+ bases.
The other pieces are interchangeable. The M's have plenty of young talent. So instead of Maurer and Romero, it could be some other combination. Wilhelmsen is a sweetener, so you can also replace him with another prospect.
The Mariners have a limited budget to work with, they have needs to fill and they have the prospects to trade. Now is the time to strike and maximize the value on our players.
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- 0 comments
- 383 views