killertwinsfan

2017 Hall Of Fame Ballot During the long, cold, dark of winter it’s nice to have a mid-winter break to bring baseball back to the spotlight again. Between the winter meetings and when pitcher and catchers report baseball news goes pretty dark. Most of the major trades and signings have taken place. There will be a few here and there most of the time our notifications are silent. And when our phones do ding with an alert we quickly grab it in anticipation only to receive a piece of minor news. Then the Hall of Fame voting is revealed and we get a few days of baseball back in the spotlight while pushing our nostalgia buttons at the same time. Then of course there’s the controversy. While it drives us crazy it also gives the whole spectacle some extra flavor. Of course everyone has their opinions on who should get in and who should not. I am no exception to the rule. What frustrates me to no end is the writers who seemingly put no effort into their ballots. They have earned this privilege that thousands of fan would love to have and then refuse to do their due diligence. Or they decide to appoint themselves the guardians of baseball morality doing their best to block anyone who may have violated the sanctity of the sport. Even if the evidence is minor or speculation. Meanwhile bloggers and fans like me put all kinds of effort into our ballots that don’t even count. That being said most of the writers do the work and put serious thought into the ballot. I have read articles of writers whose ballot I completely disagree with, but they write out and intelligent argument and I can respect their choices. Unfortunately the minority that are lazy or think it is their duty to keep the hall “pure” is large enough to block deserving candidates every year. In doing so they damage the integrity of the Hall and their fellow writers. Now before I reveal who my ballot would contain let me explain my criteria. First I look at their total career numbers. For some players like Randy Johnson and Ken Griffey Junior in the past the investigation ended right there. It was blindingly obvious they belong in the hall. For the baseball fan the names alone scream it. Some players are borderline when it comes to career totals or maybe just had a long career when they compiled large numbers while never being truly great. The second criteria then comes in. Every player has a peek to their career. A Hall of Famer should at some point be considered among one of the best in the game. At this point I watched everyone on the ballot play at some point. A Hall of Famer should stand out. While this may sound somewhat subjective I would contest everyone’s ballot has at least a small amount of subjectivity to it. If it was all purely objective the Hall would have a list of stats and milestones built into an algorithm then feed the players career numbers to a computer and have a program determine who’s in. Those are the main two criteria. But I’ll also take into consideration playoff performance, awards, and stat leaderboards, either career or single season. These will mostly be used if I’m on the fence on a player and if one or more of those criteria will push the player over the hump for me. Of course when discussing criteria whether I would vote someone in or not I have to address the elephant in the room. And I don’t mean the Oakland A’s uniform patch. Recently the Hall of Fame vote has seemed to become less about stats an achievements and more about PEDs. This has become such a hot button topic that some writers have decided not to vote for the Hall anymore. This decision I can actually respect. If you feel you can’t in good conscience decide who’s guilty and who’s not and decide not to decide it all that’s fine. What I can’t stand is the writers who have decided to judge all players guilty by association and turn in a blank ballot. Not only is this lazy, but it also screams that you’re an idiot. While a writer may think he or she is making some grand statement what they are actually saying is they paint everyone of a certain group with the same brush and there is nothing any of them can do to change their mind. If this is how someone is going to look at baseball from now on then why even write about or even bother to watch the sport if you consider every player a cheater. They have announced that the numbers don’t matter and they won’t bother to look any further into the situation. Which is failing to do their job when you think about it. If a writer reaches this point it’s time for them to turn in their credentials and give an opportunity to someone who will put in the work. Then go get themselves another honest job. Although please. Stay away from working in the criminal justice system. Now how do I treat the PED issue? I go on a case by case basis. Mostly if there is proof and if it was actually illegal at the time. Keep in mind a player only has to meet two criteria to get on the ballot. Ten years of service time, and be in good standing with Major League Baseball. If Baseball didn’t want a certain player to get in the hall they should have banned them. One other thing I should mention. I don’t differentiate between Hall of Famer and first ballot Hall of Famer. That doesn’t mean my mind might not change from one year to the next. Someone might make a good argument for or against a players election that changes my mind. Now on to the ballot. 34 players on this year’s ballot. After an initial look over the ballot there are 19 players I would consider. No offense to the Matt Stairs and Pat Burrells of the world. If you play 10 years in the league you did something right. Then I had to go player by player and make a yes or no decision on if they are hall worthy in my opinion. (Note. Used the Baseball-Reference charts. Their career leaderboards have minimum qualifications that fangraphs does not use. So some current players may not be included in career rankings. So some of these leaderboard rankings may differ from lists containing active players.) Jeff Bagwell Because of injuries shortening his career his counting stats are a little light. Especially for a first basemen. But when you look at the peak of his career the numbers are hard to ignore. In five seasons Bagwell walked more then he struck out in five seasons and never struck out more than 135 times in a season despite being a power hitter. He produced a 6 rWAR or better in 5 seasons. He is also the only first basemen in history with 400+ HRs and 200+ SB. There have been some PED accusations but little more than pointing to his big arms. Nothing even close to substantial. Bagwell is one of the five best first basemen to ever play the game. I vote yes. Plus how can you forget that batting stance? Tim Raines It Raines last chance. He has been climbing at a steady pace since he first appeared on the ballot. But needs one final push to get him in. The holdouts might point to the fact he didn’t reach 3000 hits despite being a leadoff hitter. Never had 200 hits in a season. Didn’t hit for any power. Setting all that aside Raines was the second best leadoff hitter besides Ricky Henderson. He is 5th all-time in SB. Top 10 in NL in OBP in 7 seasons. Top 10 in Offensive WAR in the NL in 6 seasons. Top 5 in the NL in runs created in 5 seasons. Lead the NL in times on Base in 3 seasons and is 48th all-time in reaching base. Those numbers are enough for me to cast my vote for Tim Raines. Hopefully the voters put him in the hall where he belongs this year. Trevor Hoffman The closer is a tough position to judge. As far as stats go the only one they can compile career numbers in is one of the most over rated stats in sports. So when evaluating Hoffman I needed to look at the numbers differently. While I don’t like the save stat 601 of them are hard to ignore. While total strikeouts can’t compare to starters Hoffman is 9th all-time in Ks/9. He is also 8th in WHIP and 7th in H/9. While closers will always have a hard time getting in the hall Hoffman is one of the true elites at the position. He has my vote. Curt Schilling This name requires some separation. Lately Schilling has taken a lot of flak for his twitter account. Despite how anyone feels about that the voters should stick to on field performance. If they didn’t and decided to take off field actions into account well there would be many vacancies in all the sports hall of fames. Now moving on to those on field numbers the first thing that will stand out is the 3000 strikeout mark that many voters want to see. Going even deeper he was top 5 in his league in pitcher WAR 8 times. Top 10 in ERA in his league 9 times. 1st in Ks and WHIP twice and 2nd in the same categories twice. Plus lead his league in K/BB ratio 5 times. Then besides that his postseason numbers are among the best off all time. The only reason he isn’t in yet is probably because he was called to testify before congress about PEDs in baseball. My vote. Yes. Roger Clemons If it was just the numbers Clemons would be in hands down. All that would be left is where he ranks all time. PED accusations have ruined his vote totals though. Despite any failed test the amount of accusations has made him a long shot to get in. While I can’t say he is innocent of all accusations, I can’t say I buy them either. My vote. Yes Barry Bonds. In 2004 I went to a Braves game in Atlanta. The Giants were in town. In that game I got to see future Hall of Famer Chipper Jones hit a home run and future Hall of Famer John Smoltz close the game out. I also got to see Barry Bonds hit a home run and strike out. In 2004 the strikeout was actually less likely to happen for Bonds then the home run. As with Clemons the numbers speak for themselves. But also like Clemons PED suspensions have derailed his Hall chances. That being said he never failed a test. Do I think he did it? Probably, but I can’t prove it. Also his raw hitting ability goes way beyond what any drug could possibly do. So Yes Bonds has my vote. Edgar Martinez The first true DH eligible for the hall Martinez makes a difficult case. His counting numbers are light for a DH with less than 2500 hits and 350 HRs. His main redeeming quality was being an on base machine. Looking over his yearly totals he constantly was a great bat to have in the lineup. While the power numbers are light he consistently got on base thus creating runs. In the top 10 in OBP 11 times and leading 3 times. While also in the top 10 in hitting 7 times while leading he league twice. While the counting numbers may seem a little low especially for a DH Martinez was consistently productive and that gets my vote. Mike Mussina. If you look up “workhorse” in the dictionary Mike Mussina’s picture should be there. When he first showed up on the ballot I thought no way he was a Hall of Famer. Good solid pitcher, but not a Hall of Famer. But wanting to do my due diligence I decided to give his career a closer look. Upon further inspection his numbers were more impressive then I remember. 7 times he pitched 200+ innings. And in many seasons he was in the top 10 in the AL in most categories. As an added bonus he was the best defensive pitcher of his era. The downside is outside of the 2001 season he was never really a dominant pitcher. But he was consistently among one of the better pitchers in the AL. After looking at the numbers and all he managed to accomplish Mussina has won me over. A switch to yes. Lee Smith Smith has been on the ballot long enough to see two pitches break his save record while he waits. Frankly that has hurt his vote totals. An excellent closer. But Hoffman and Rivera have raised the bar while he’s been sitting on the ballot. My vote. No. Fred McGriff Known for big power his biggest case is the HRs. Just short of 500. After that his case starts to degrade. He doesn’t show up in the top offensive contributors often season by season. Only 3 times in the top 10 offensive WAR. For a first basemen I need to see more. My vote. No. Jeff Kent Opposite of Mike Mussina When Kent showed up on the ballot I thought for sure he was a hall of famer. When I took another look though the numbers weren’t as impressive as I remember. Being mainly a second basemen Kent can get away with lighter offensive numbers. That being said the .356 OBP is somewhat low for a Hall of Famer. The counting numbers don’t do anything to offset that. His single season highs are lacking as well. Most of the time showing up in his MVP season of 2000. While the numbers are very good for a second basemen I can’t see them as Hall of Fame worthy. My vote. No Larry Walker The counting numbers are good. But where he really shines are the big numbers he put up during the peak of his career. But then you notice he played those games for Colorado a hitter’s paradise. Not wanting to ding him solely for that I checked out his home and road splits. Impressively during his MVP season he hit better on the road rather than Coors field. The other season though the home road splits are rather slanted towards home. Considering this I have to vote No on Larry Walker. Garry Sheffield Looking at Sheffield’s stat line his counting numbers look pretty good. Over 2600 hits and 500 HRs plus over 200 SB. Throw in a good batting average and on base and he starts with a strong argument. One thing I always remember about Sheffield was that incredible bat speed. Balls would leave the yard off his bat in a hurry. Throughout his career he was a potent offensive force in the top 10 in his league in on base 10 times. Top 10 in WAR 4 times and offensive WAR 5 times. H also was among the top 10 in HR 7 times. Impressively he never struck out 100 times in a season. The problems come with an admission to PED usage but he said he didn’t know it at the time. He also never tested positive. He was also a bad defensive player. The offensive numbers are solid. Few power hitters could control the plate like he could. Bu the defense reduces his overall value. The admission is hard to decide what to do with as well. Given everything I’ll give Sheffield my very tentative yes vote. Sammy Sosa This is another difficult one. His entire case is built on the home run. He has some nice stolen base totals to go with the power but the OBP and average are pretty low. He lacked the good defense to help his case anymore as well. Then there is a failed drug test which is hard to measure considering the circumstances it was revealed. But at the same time the corked bat incident does him no favors for gaining votes. In the end Sammy was fun to watch but too much of a one trick pony for me. I can’t give him my vote. Ivan Rodriguez The numbers are impressive. Then you remember he put those numbers up as a catcher. Nearly 3000 hits and over 300 home runs…as a catcher. Top 10 in hits in his league 4 times…as a catcher. 7 times top 10 in defensive WAR, did I mention he was a catcher? Possibly the greatest defensive catcher ever. Hands Down Pudge belongs in the hall. Manny Ramirez The offensive stats on their own are a case and a half for Manny getting in. Even with his poor defense. The problem is the PEDs. Not even accusations. Failed a test…twice. The second failure ended his career. This is where I have to draw a line. When you get caught and then cheat and get caught again and decide to quit instead of serving your suspension you lose my vote. No. Vladimir Guerrero It’s funny. Player like Vlad aren’t supposed to work. You’re not supposed to swing at pitches that bounce and get base hits. While I wouldn’t recommend modeling your game after Vlad he was fun to watch. He was also an offensive force at the plate. 6 times in the top 5 in hits. 4 times getting 200 hits. That along with the power had him top 10 in runs created 6 times. And despite defensive shortcomings had an absolute cannon for an arm. The biggest negative was a shortened career that stopped before he hit he big milestones. He also never performed well in the postseason. That aside he still deserves a spot in Cooperstown. Jorge Posada Has it been 5 years already since Posada retired? His numbers are lower than I expected. Less than 2000 hits and less than 300 home runs. He had some good seasons but not hall worthy. Jason Varitek Despite catching four no hitters Varitek lacks the numbers to put him in the hall. Now I have a problem. I have 11 guys I want to vote for the hall. The stupid rule of 10 though prevents this. Thus the log jam will continue for another year. So one player on my list will have to be cut. This is actually a pretty easy decision compared to years past. Gary Sheffield will have to be the odd man out on my ballot this year. I feel the other 10 have better qualifications. Maybe next year he can get on my ballot but with Chipper Jones and Jim Thome being added there will have to be at least 3 cleared from the ballot this year. So my Final ballot is Jeff Bagwell Tim Raines Trevor Hoffman Curt Schilling Barry Bonds Roger Clemons Edgar Martinez Mike Mussina Ivan Rodriguez Vladimir Guerrero Anyway let me know what you think. I know I could have gone into more detail but didn’t have time. (Yet I still put in more work than the two writers who submitted blank ballots and they get paid to write about sports.)

I still think Twins will try him in the OF for the time being. Especially with Mauer now at first till 2018

I'm predicting Deduno breaks camp as the 5th starter. Diamonds velocity was down last season, his K rate was even lower then 2012 and his curveball got killed. Worley's peripherals suggest 2011 was a fluke. Whoever it is I hope Gibson, May, or Meyer break out and take the 5th spot at mid season.

Thanks Howie this one took awhile to write

I really see no scenario Where Buxton is on the opening day roster. I want to see him dominate double A first. Can't wait to see him but get him polished first. September is probably the realistic target.

With Twins fest in the books and the first spring training games coming up at the end of the month it’s time to take a look at the upcoming roster and see what we got. Last season was disappointing to say the least. Can we look forward to something better this season? Let’s begin by looking at the starting pitching. No matter how you look at it the starting pitching last year was in a word, awful, and that may be putting it politely. The rotation had the highest ERA of any team in the majors at 5.26 nearly half a run higher than any other team. The A.L. average was 4.15. The Twins starts also pitched the fewest innings than any other A.L. team. Only four pitchers threw 100 innings or more and only two had an ERA under 5. So what was the cause of all the trouble on the mound? We have all gotten used to the Twins being tops in the league for walks allowed. This is no longer the case but they still allowed for the 3rd fewest walks in the A.L. last season. However considering the amount of innings pitched it is better to look at BB/9 then total walks allowed. In this stat the Twins tied for 7th in the A.L. at 2.86 BB/9 respectable considering the league average was 3.06. The second thing you may want to try to blame is home runs allowed. I’m sure we all have nightmares about some of the blasts that we had to witness. The Twins starters allowed 110 bombs last season 4thlowest mark in the A.L. But again, like the walks it’s better to use HR/9 allowed especially considering how few innings the starters pitched. In this the Twins had a 1.14 mark, 10th in the A.L. The league average was 1.09. The Twins were also helped quite a bit in that area having target field as their home park. So Homers allowed were a factor but just a small one. So what were the main culprits to the struggles on the mound? I believe the main problem was strikeouts, or lack thereof. Last season the Twins were the only club to strikeout fewer than 1000 batters. But when you look deeper at the numbers things get worse…much worse. The Twins starters struck out 477 batters last season, 189 fewer then the second lowest team on the list, the Astros. That was good for a rate of 4.93 K/9 with the league average being 7.20. That’s not even the embarrassing part. Despite throwing 292 fewer inning the Twins pen struck out 31 MORE batters. In fact only one Twins starter had a K/9 rate of 6 or better, Cole Devries who pitched all of 7 innings. So what’s the problem with not being able to strikeout batters? While you don’t need to lead the league in it it’s always a nice weapon to have in the arsenal. Without fear of swinging and missing hitters were able to sit back and wait for their pitch. I got some close up looks during the late season series with the A’s (I’m sure we all have fond memories of that.) and I noticed something. The A’s basic hitting philosophy is to be patient wait for your pitch and then hit it hard somewhere. Judging by the outcomes of the at bats this philosophy worked very well against Twins pitching. Observing up close from right on top of the dugouts the A’s batters just waited and fouled off close pitches and then drilled line drive after line drive when they got the pitch they wanted. Wanting to get as much info as possible I looked up what the numbers said seeing if they backed up what I saw. I’m sure we can all remember the glory days when Santana would strikeout hitters with that filthy changeup either buried in the dirt or right at the thighs, or flaying helplessly as Liriano’s wicked sliders that started at the waist and was suddenly at their ankles back in 2006. Last season was not those days. When you look at most of the top pitchers in the league one thing they all share is the ability to swing at miss at pitches both in and out of the strike zone. Last season hitters chased pitches out of the strike zone against Twins starters 28.9% of the time, lowest in the A.L. However when hitters did swing at pitches out of the strike zone the made contact 75.9% of the time by far the most in the A.L. (keep in mind that outside the zone means just a little off the plate or high or low along with way outside the zone and contact doesn’t always mean a hit but also includes fouling a pitch off) Meaning that Twins pitchers couldn’t get anyone to chase but on the rare occasion they could get the batter to go after a close pitch they would probably foul it off and wait for the next offering. When throwing pitches in the strike zone things got even uglier. Batters made contact with pitches in the strike zone a whopping 92% of the time, by far the most in the A.L. Overall when facing Twins starting pitching batters swung and missed only 6.1% of the time, lowest in the A.L. When you look at the differences in the leaders’ the percentages are small at first but you have to consider Twins starters threw nearly 15,000 pitches last season a 1 % difference overall could mean many more pitches contact was made on. So why is being able to miss bats so important? Any pitcher will tell you that once they let go of the ball they don’t have much control of what happens next. An Error could happen, funny hop, ball lands in no man’s land, or just a broken bat lucky hit. To measure this there is a stat called BABIP (batting average on balls in play.) It takes a hitters batting average minus the three things a pitcher has the most control over; walks, strikeouts, and home runs. The league average last season was .298. Most teams starting pitching staffs fell between a .287 and .308 with 2 outliers. One was theOakland A’s who’s starting staff had a .272 BABIP but this is mostly because of the massive amount of foul territory creating many more pop outs then the average ball park. The other is our very own Minnesota Twins with a .324 BABIP. How is it so high? Even with allowing more balls in play you would think it would still be near the average percentage for hits. The problem there is the overall “stuff” of the pitching staff. Talk to any pitcher and the vast majority will tell you they work off the fastball. Last season in the American league the average fastball velocity was 91.2. The Twins average fastball velocity was 89.9. That may notsound like much of a difference but it was 3rd worst in the American league. Velocity isn’t everything but harder throwers do have the ability to get away with mistakes more often and are more likely to get chases out of the zone. Of course no pitcher can rely on just their fastball especially in the starting rotation. The problem is many pitchers have to key their secondary pitches off the fastball. The pitch that got the Twins starters in the second most amount of trouble last season was the changeup. Out of the 11 pitchers that started games for the Twins last season 10 had a change in their arsenal, half of those had an average difference in velocity of less the 7 mph. Generally you want your change to be at least an 8 mph difference. Looking at the pitch/fx data for breaking balls and other pitches Twins pitchers across the board posted negative value on every pitch among the rotation. Of course to get a better understanding of what went wrong and how it can be fixed we need to look at the pitchers individually and what the new guys bring and if there is anything left out there. So lets take a look at what we have. Kevin Correia Last offseason the signing of Correia was widely criticized. Coming off high ERAs in the national league it was thought he would post an ERA of around 5 last season. He actually turned out to be a pleasant surprise. His ERA actually went down from the previous season to a respectable 4.18 for the A.L. His strikeout rate actually went up a little and his walk rate went down a little. His peripherals look good as well posting a 4.24 expected fielding independent pitching (basically the expected pitchers ERA based on results a pitcher can control such as walks, strikeouts, hit batters, and home runs. And adjusts the HRs to league average allowed rate.) His home run rate was pretty high compared to league average and his own career average, especially considering his home ballpark. He is by no means a staff ace but a repeat performance would be welcome. Even on a contending team he would fit in as a 4thor 5th starter. The downside is Correia will enter the season at 33 years old and turn 34 in august. He is at the age were decline should be expected. Also highly troubling is against his fastball hitter destroyed it hitting a whopping .413, but there was also a .417 BABIP on the fastball. An oddity in his pitch data his he threw sliders more than any other pitches. Some of that may be pitch/fx having trouble determining the difference between his slider and cutter because there isn’t much movement. It might be something to watch this season to see if he is losing some confidence in the fastball. Also his ground ball rate was it’s lowest since 2008. As far as trade value there may be a few teams who might be in the market of a back end innings eater down the stretch to stabilize the rotation. However teams will not give up very much for that type of starter. Overall I would expect a bit of a decline from Correia this season but he should still eat innings and be an effective back of the rotation guy. Unfortunately at the moment we are expecting him to be our 2 or 3 starter. Logan Darnell His minor league career has been somewhat of a rollercoaster. Last season pitched well at double A and just fair at triple A. A lefty with a low 90’s fastball scouts say his lack of a plus secondary pitch probably means he is destined for the bullpen. At 25 years old he’s old for a prospect. There are also many other pitchers ahead of him on the depth chart. With a good showing at Rochester he may get a shot this season but in reality he is an emergency starter or probably a lefty out of the pen. Sam Deduno Deduno will probably be given every chance to crack the starting rotation this spring. Last season although limited by injuries he had a nice 3.83 ERA. He also cut his walk rate way down. The main question is will he be healthy? If he is healthy he does a good job keeping hitters off balance with the moving fastball. I’m all for letting him pitch as long as he can keep the batter fooled. However he doesn’t strike anyone out he still walks too many batters and while he doesn’t throw it often his changeup got killed to the tune of a .406 batting average against. Pitchers in his mold generally have a short effective life i.e. Carlos Silva and Brian Duensing. Scott Diamond Diamond comes to spring hoping he can recapture his 2012 form. Last year was just bad for Scott. The problem is it wasn’t unexpected. In 2012 among qualifying starters Diamond had the lowest strikeout rate in the majors. In 2013 that caught up to Diamond. His Strikeout rate dropped even lower while his walk rate went up. His average fastball velocity dropped nearly a mile per hour. In 2012 Diamond could get both lefties and righties out, and he could get righties out at a better clip then lefties. In 2013 Diamond couldn’t get either out with lefties hitting him harder than righties. His ground ball rate dropped significantly causing his fly ball rate to jump along with his home run rate. Besides the loss of fastball velocity his curveball which was a weapon for him in 2012 became a liability. He also stopped throwing his 2 seam fastball with helped him out a little in 2012. Diamond will be one of the top guys competing for the 5thspot in the rotation. He will probably be given every chance to prove he can regain his 2012 form. However his peripherals suggest it was a one-time thing. If he can get lefties out he can be a left handed specialist maybe, maybe an emergency starter. Kyle Gibson Gibson struggled in his arrival last season among the massive amount of hype following him. Despite being hit hard scouts still like his stuff with a 92-94 mph fastball and a sharp tilting slider. In his first year coming off Tommy John surgery I'm willing to give him a pass on last season. There is still the ability there to become a solid #2 starter. He should compete for the final starting spot, but will probably start the year in Rochester. I expect to see Gibson in the rotation sometime in May or June. Keep an eye on him this spring. He posted good strikeout rates in the minors so see how many swings and misses he gets in spring games. Phil Hughes Once one of the top prospects in the game Hughes stock plummeted in New York over the last few seasons. The Twins signed him hoping he’s young enough that getting him out of Yankee stadium will spark a turn around. Hughes sits around 91-94 with a spike curveball and changeup. In the last two seasons he has added a slider throwing that more and the curve less. The hope is that getting Hughes out of the hitter friendly Yankee stadium will help. His home road splits are significant. (.311 vs .254 and 17 HRs vs 7 HRs)Add in that Target field is a pitcher friendly park Hughes should adjust well. He’s all but guaranteed a spot in the rotation. If he doesn’t live up in the zone so much and pitch to what he is capable of he should be a reliable middle of the rotation option. Trevor May Scouting reports on May indicate three very good pitches. Last season at AAA he posted an excellent 9.44 K/9. For some reason though he still posted a high ERA of 4.51. Part of it is because of high walk rates. Optimism though because the walk rate is down from the previous season. A concern is while his K rate is good it’s down from what it was at the lower minors. May had a good showing in the Arizona Fall league and should have a shot to crack the rotation this spring. He has the talent and the stuff the question is can he put it all together? He will probably start the season at Rochester but expect him up sometime at mid-season. Alex Meyer To quote ESPNs Keith Law “all you Twins fans who like to complain that the team never has any power arms in its system can shut your traps.” There is a long line of power arms coming up in the system and Alex Meyer is leading it. To once again quote Keith Law he says in a scouting report “When Meyer is on, he looks like a top-of-the-rotation guy, sitting in the upper 90s with sink and a slider sharp enough to sever someone's femoral artery on its way to the plate.” Meyer had a good season last year at double A posting a 3.21 ERA and striking out 84 batters in 70 innings pitched while allowing just 3 HR. His season was cut short due to shoulder problems but they are not believed to be serious. Standing at 6’9 with a hard sinking fastball reminds some fans of Randy Johnson. The downside is pitchers that tall have trouble repeating their delivery leading to control issues. Meyer does have an issue with control at times. Also tall pitchers are more prone to injury. In fact only two pitchers 6’8 and above have made a significant impact in baseball history; Randy Johnson and J.R. Richard. However scouts say so far so good with Meyer. He still needs to work on his delivery and work on developing the change more. He will be fun to watch this spring but is destined to start the year in the Minors. He should be in Minneapolis in July if not in the Majors then in the futures game. Look for a mid to late season call up. Ricky Nolasco The largest free agent contract in Twins history. Opinions on Nolasco have varied widely but while some say that it was an overpay the truth is it was probably the going rate for a mid-rotation starter. Nolasco had his best season since 2008 last season posting a 3.70 ERA with 165 Ks in 199 innings pitched. His peripherals suggest he was even better posting a 3.34 FIPand 3.58 xFIP. Nolasco throws a low 90s sinking fastball a curve, split change, and a slider as a put away pitch. Hopefully Nolasco can find what he did between the time he was traded to the Dodgers and mid-September. Coming to the A.L. there is some regression expected but he is durable and should give the Twins 190+ innings at mid-rotation value. He’s a lock to make the rotation and probably the opening day starter. Mike Pelfrey Pelfry is coming off a disappointing season. The Twins must feel he can perform better one more year removed from surgery but even before that in the national league he was a lack luster pitcher. Pelfry does throw fairly hard hitting 94 at times. However there is a lack of secondary pitches. I was at a few of Pelfrey’s starts last season up close on top of the dugouts. Even from there it wasn’t hard to spot when the curveball was coming. Hitters would lay off it and wait for the straight fastball. Hitters swung less often at pitches outside the zone and contact made on pitches in the strike zone made a huge jump of 10% more often. Signing Pelfry to a two year deal looks like a mistake especially with young arms on the rise. With the money he commands he will get a chance to prove he can bounce back. With Meyers and May down in the minors though if Pelfrey can’t perform how safe is his spot? Vance Worley Worley went out and proved last season…that indeed his 2011 season was an apparition. If there are any positives for Worley it’s that in Philly he posted K rates way above what he did last year. Also there is almost no way he can suffer from a .401 BABIP and 15.5% HR/FB rate again. However Worley has only thrown 150 innings or more once in his career and that was back in 2009 in the minors. With that in mind and the fact he’s an upper 80’s fastball guy without much secondary stuff he’s probably a depth guy stashed at triple A in case the Twins need an emergency starter. After spring is over and the team heads north I predict the starting rotation will look like this. Ricky Nolasco, Keven Correia, Mike Pelfrey, Phil Hughes, Sam Deduno Of course there are a few free agents left out there let’s take a quick look at those. Ervin Santana I can understand why he is still available. Despite the good year last season in 2012 he was absolutely lit up. However while what he did last year may not be the norm I wouldn’t expect him to regress to 2012 levels either. I can’t see the Twins signing him though. First of all if there was hesitation of giving up our 2nd round draft pick for Garza hard to believe they would do it for Santana. Secondly we already have Nolasco and Hughes signed for the next 3-4 seasons, rumor is Santana wants 3-4 seasons. With the prospects we have in the pipeline it’s hard to have another aging pitcher block them. Johan Santana Rumors are swirling that there is a possible reunion in the works. If it happens though probably won’t be until May or June. From a publicity perspective it would make perfect sense to sign Johan to a 1 year deal let him take the mound one last time as a Twin and pack the ballpark. From a baseball perspective it’s hard to see it making a lot of sense. As of right now you have no idea what he will give you and you have those young arms waiting in the minors. Things would have to go really wrong for us to actually need Santana. There are a few other options but none really worth explaining. They are aged and not much left. The injury bug would have to hit hard. Overall the Twins rotation is a work in progress but the additions of Nolasco and Hughes should make it more watchable. If Meyer and May come up and contribute and Gibson starts to look like what we hoped he would be the rotation at some point could go Nolasco, Gibson, Hughes, Meyer, May. It might not be the Tigers but it would be interesting and it would actually be a major league rotation. Unlike the 6th and 7th starters we threw out there last season. Look for my post on the bullpen in the next few days. I promise it won’t be as long as this one.

I would take him but the O's will want pitching in return. I would rather keep Pinto at catcher, and if I could get one player from the O's I would take Kevin Gausman

Well the move has finally arrived, we all knew it was coming sooner or later. Now it’s time for the panic and the uninformed cliché’s to fly. However before you curse the contract or start making inaccurate comparisons; stop, take a breath, and look at some facts. Yes it’s true that Mauer is more valuable at catcher then at first base. It’s a simple fact that the catcher position is far more valuable than first base. But with Mauer having a concussion and so little known about what can happen with multiple concussions I would rather have a somewhat diminished valued Mauer then no value at all if another injury happens. The most common phrase I have heard and no doubt most of you have heard is something along the lines of “well now we have a 23 million dollar singles hitting first basemen.” I am so tired of this phrase, all it does is show that the people who utter it are focused on HRs and RBIs. I have also seen people comparing Mauer at first to other players, the three most common are Doug Mientkiewicz, John Olerud, and Todd Helton (after the power went). The Mientkiewicz comparison is drawn from him hitting .300 without much power. The problem with this comparison is that Mientkiewicz only hit .300 2 times in his career with a high of .306. Mauer has hit .300 6 times and often hits .320 and higher. Also Mientkiewicz never posted a .400 OBP in a season. The Todd Helton Comparison doesn’t really work when you factor in the Coors field effect. As for the Olerud comparison he posted a .400 OBP six times in his career, so has Mauer but Mauer still has several season ahead of him. Also Olerud was a pretty darn good player and Mauer is on pace to pass many of his career marks. So what can we expect from Mauer at first? First is an offensive first position so how will Mauer’s bat play there? Well let’s take Mauer’s numbers and compare them to the rest of the 1st basemen in the Majors. As far as batting average Mauer would rank 1st. Batting average doesn’t tell the whole story though so let’s look at on base percentage. Among 1st baseman Mauer is 2nd trailing only Joey Votto. So how bout power? If your rank Mauer’s slugging percentage among first baseman this last season he ranks 10th. Now I prefer isolated power (ISO) to SLG% which basically measures extra base hits per at bat, in this Mauer ranks 21st among 1st base this last season. So just looking at those numbers it kind of points to what most fans suspect, a high on base low power hitter. So what is Mauer’s overall value with the bat? Probably the best way to gauge this is to use either weighted on base average (wOBA) or weighted runs created plus (wRC+). wOBA takes the idea that not all hits are created equal. Each type of reaching base is assigned a weight with HRs being weighted the highest. Comparing Mauer’s wOBA to the first basemen this season he would have ranked 6th. wRC+ is very similar except it is park and league adjusted. 100 is the league average and ever point is a percentage above or below average. Joe Mauer’s wRC+ for this last season was 144, so 44% above league average in offensive production. He would have ranked 6thamong first basemen. So overall Mauer’s offensive production will work pretty well at first base as long as he can keep up his swing. Also since he should get more plate appearances and not have to deal with the wear and tear of catching there may be a small increase in offensive production. We could be looking at a possibility of reaching base 280-300 times. Now if your wondering were the RBI comparisons are I refuse to use them. RBIs are the most overrated offensive stat in the game. It is a number of opportunity. Mauer has a career AVG. of .324 with runners in scoring position, granted this year he only hit .239 with runners in scoring position but at the same time he only had 113 plate appearances in such situations and walked in 23 of those. It’s really hard to rack up RBIs when youonly swing the bat 90 times in that situation. If you’re of the frame of mind he just needs to hit the ball over the fence more often that would be nice but you still don’t guarantee a larger production of RBIs all you guarantee is 1RBI per HR. If you’re wanting him to change his swing to try to pull and lift the ball more ask yourself this, how many outs are you willing to trade per home run? On base has been proven to be more productive then slugging percentage. I heard a sports talk show host saying now Mauer needs to move into the number 3 spot and drive in runs. I heartily disagree and argue that wouldbe highly counterproductive. First of all who is Mauer going to drive in? After Mauer the highest OBP were Willingham at .342 and then Justin Morneau at .315. Morneau is gone and Willingham is injury prone and aging. Also Neither one of those is a top of the order hitter. Mauer needs to stay in the number 2 spot and get on base ahead of Willingham, Arcia, and eventually Sano. Also adding to his value hitting at the top he averaged 4th most in the majors for pitches seen per PA the ability to wear starting pitchers down is a nice advantage to have. Mauer will probably lose some value moving from behind the dish but it’s not going to be as bad as what many people say. Besides it’s starting to become more common in the game. Buster Posey and Carlos Santana play first 20-30 times a season. Rumor is Brian McCaan will sign with an A.L. team and move to DH in 2 or 3 seasons. Yogi Berra eventually played games in the OF and Jonny Bench moved to the corner IF late in his career. We will miss Mauer as a catcher but he will still be highly effective at first so sit back and enjoy the ride.

Like most Twins fans emotionally I was sad to see Justin leave the team. During his time here he made a lot of memories for us and was easily one of the most loved Twins during our run in the 2000s and into the Target field years. Like many Twins fans I wonder how his career would look if injuries hadn't slowed him down. However from a need perspective the trade needed to happen. With Justin being a free agent at the end of the year it wouldn't make much sense to make the qualifying offer to him in the offseason for a first basemen of his age and given recent performance. (August numbers notwithstanding) Unfortunately Justin's decline in performance over the last few seasons have diminished what we could have gotten in a return. Alex Presley, just who is he? Well whenever the Twins trade for a prospect or call someone up the first thing I look at is age. When I saw the age of 28 for Presley I knew we were getting not a prospect but a depth guy. At the major league level Presley has cracked an OBP of over .300 once, a partial season 2 years ago. Then at age 26 you could figure maybe he's a late bloomer. Since then his offensive numbers leave much to be desired. He is definitely not a lead off hitter, especially with an atrocious BB/K ratio. his main redeeming features with the bat are he has a little bit of pop (.159 ISO career, measure of hitters power, average is about .145) but with such a bad contact rate that power doesn't have much of a chance to manifest itself. He also has some base running ability, but again with a low on base percentage he doesn't get to use that much. Oddly he has had some good minor league numbers but if the skills haven't shown up at the big league level by now they are not going to. As for his defense its a bit hard to get a read. He has an alright ultimate zone rating but negative defensive runs saved, his arm rating is also a bit on the low side. Ill have to watch him in person but I'm guessing he has good range but maybe doesn't get the best of jumps. Terry Ryan said he had arm for all 3 OF positions so its possible he is inaccurate, or of course on TV a GM always try's to push the positives. Now I know What Terry Ryan said yesterday but I'm not really buying it. Not because I don't like Ryan. The opposite is true and I think he has done a great job trying to put this team back together (regular season record notwithstanding, look at the farm system though, the future is coming soon.) When ever you hear a GM talk about a bit player just remember that in front of the camera they are never going to say the negative. They are going to try to paint the best picture possible. Saying "We traded Morneau for a bench guy who is just keeping the spot warm till Hicks is ready." doesn't make good press. Overall Alex Presley is a slight upgrade over the replacement level guys we have been bringing up so far. Maybe we can catch lightning in a bottle with the player to be named later. For now until Mauer gets in the lineup its time to watch a mix of AAA, platoon, and over the hill lineup. I hope you all will join me in hoping Sano is a September call up

While Most fans (and I am one of them) are hoping the Twins get a power arm with the number 4 pick tonight there is another possibility that is interesting. San Diego 3B Kris Bryant is leading College in HRs. Heck he has more bombs then the majority of college teams. That kind of right handed power is rare in the game right now. Also position players (aside from catcher) carry far less risk then pitchers. Oakland A's GM Billy Beane says you need 3 pitching prospects to fill one spot in the rotation because one will get injured one will regress and the other will fill out your rotation. Jim Bowden of ESPN.com says in an article that out of the past 20 AL and NL cy young winners only 2 (Verlander, and Price) have been taken in the top 3 picks. Also keep in mind the Twins 1st round pick at #2 in 2000 Adam Johnson. While some may argue we have Sano in the system there is no guarantee he stays at third (granted the same is being wondered with Bryant.) So while yes we do need pitching depth in the farm system right now, especially power arms, a hard hitting righty with huge power is far above a consolation prize. (sorry about the paragraph formatting it wont work when I hit the enter key)

While Most fans (and I am one of them) are hoping the Twins get a power arm with the number 4 pick tonight there is another possibility that is interesting. San Diego 3B Kris Bryant is leading College in HRs. Heck he has more bombs then the majority of college teams. That kind of right handed power is rare in the game right now. Also position players (aside from catcher) carry far less risk then pitchers. Oakland A's GM Billy Beane says you need 3 pitching prospects to fill one spot in the rotation because one will get injured one will regress and the other will fill out your rotation. Jim Bowden of ESPN.com says in an article that out of the past 20 AL and NL cy young winners only 2 (Verlander, and Price) have been taken in the top 3 picks. Also keep in mind the Twins 1st round pick at #2 in 2000 Adam Johnson. While some may argue we have Sano in the system there is no guarantee he stays at third (granted the same is being wondered with Bryant.) So while yes we do need pitching depth in the farm system right now, especially power arms, a hard hitting righty with huge power is far above a consolation prize. (sorry about the paragraph formatting it wont work when I hit the enter key)

Playoff Rundown: Whyeach team can and can’t win it all Well it’s that time of year again, the greatest of those months, October. With the postseason about to get underway every baseball fan has one question on his or her mind; who will win it all? With that question in mind experts and amateurs alike try to look at the numbers and try to predict who has the best shot. However the same logic and metric we use in a regular season don’t always work the same in October. As we have seen in the past season anything can happen in a short series. October usually come down to who got hot at the right time. And with this year’s contenders the field is looking pretty even. However if you look at most of the World Series winners of the last few years there are a few common factors. So if we look at the Cardinals who came out of nowhere last year what went right for them? You know aside from David Freese hitting everything and then some. Well Chris Carpenter also pitched his tail off the entire postseason. So for me two factors stick out,t he ability to get hot for a stretch and top of the line starting pitching. Of course its baseball so anything can happen, the Cardinals also had the weather work their way allowing Carpenter to pitch game 7. All that being said let’s look at what’s right and what’s wrong with this year’s hopefuls. New York Yankees They scared their fan base blowing a ten game lead in the final month or so but managed to play just a little bit better then Baltimore to finish for the division lead and thanks to Texas falling apart, the number one spot in the American League. Why they can win: In the postseason it all begins and ends with pitching. TheYankees are 5th in the league in ERA which isn’t great but not bad, however they are tied for 2nd in strikeouts and 1st in walks. On the front end of the rotation they have C.C. and Kuroda. The may be missing Rivera but Robertson, Soriano, and Phelps have all been good. On the offensive side they lead the majors in HR hit and the A.L. in OBP. Why they can’t win: C.C. has looked better his last two starts but there is still worry about his health. If you look at Andy Pettit’s Numbers they look good but it was a total of 75 innings, he isn’t exactly young anymore. As a team they seem to have trouble hitting with runners in scoring position. They are also kind of old as a team. A-rods been hurt, Texeria has been hurt. Defensively they have one of the worst teamsi n term of range. They also lack team speed. Something else that could come into play, They have allowed the 3rd most HR in the A.L. part of that is because of the ballpark. However in the 1st round they have to face either Texas or Baltimore who also have hit 200 or more HR and both play in hitter’s parks. And if they have to face the Rangers in a slugfest the Rangers have more offensive weapons to beat you with. Oakland Athletics They shocked the world by coming from 13 games back as of June 30th and overcame the mighty Rangers on the last day of the season. They are on fire but they saying in baseball goes “Momentum is next days starting pitcher.” Why they can win: The A’s pitching staff has the best ERA among A.L.contenders. Every kid they have called up has stepped up and down thier job well. The bullpen has also been lights out. They also allowed the fewest homeruns. (Although the ballpark plays a factor in that.) They only hit 5 fewer HR then the Rangers. They are also the best defensive team in term of range and defensive runs saved among the A.L. Playoff teams. Why they can’t win They have no real ace. They are also throwing lots ofrookies out there and you always have to wonder how they will perform under the bright lights of October. Like the Yankees the hit home runs but have hit only.238 as a team with a .310 OBP. They also with the new format have to go into Detroit and face Verlander and Scherzer. Detroit Tigers They were one of the preseason favorites with all the spending, but they just got into the playoffs in baseball’s worst division. Can their super stars step up and carry them through October? Why they can win: When your rotation starts out Verlander, Scherzer, and Fister as your front three you’re in pretty good shape. They also have the bash brothers of Cabrera and Fielder with Jackson hitting in front of them. Then throw in the added advantage of starting the first two games at home under the new format and the Tigers look like they have a good start on things. Why they can’t win: Scherzers health is a concern; if he can’t go they will have to rely on Sanchez. Their offense is built around 3 players, you can hope Young steps up like he did last year maybe but Peralta, Avila, and Rayburn have al lhad down years. The bullpen has issues and Valverde is always an adventure. They could also give away several runs ranking at the bottom in almost all defensive categories. Texas Rangers The Rangers lost 7 of their last 9 games to blow a big division lead. Five days ago they were considered the most talented team in baseball.The question now is whether that last stretch was a fluke or a trend. Why they can win: They still have loads of talent. The O’s and Yankees both have more home runs but the Rangers have all around better hitting and have the ability to run the bases. Despite the lack of a true ace they have pitching depth. The bullpen has been very good all season. Defensively they are behind the A’s but way ahead of the other three possible A.L. Opponents. Why they can’t win: Having to use Darvish in the Wild Card game will hurt their chances. Then there is the fact that anything can happen in a single game. They don’t have that Ace to go toe to toe with the likes of a Sabathia or Verlander. And all the other A.L. Managers can manage circles around Ron Washington. Baltimore Orioles They Joined the A’s in shocking the world to make the playoffs, however The O’s have everything go right and then some for them. That amazing stretch of one run wins and extra inning wins; can they keep that trend going one more month? Why they can win: Why stop now? Their biggest advantages are the bullpen, hitting for power, and the manager. Defensive metrics for the season are alittle skewed having called up Machado. The numbers are low but they have their good defensive players in the right spots at C, SS, CF, and 3B. Why they can’t win: They have a lack of an Ace or Starting pitching depth. The amazing trends they had going all season are far less likely to continue when constantly facing good teams. Washington Nationals Everyone expected them to be better, but not this much better. The big question is how much they will miss Strasburg. Why they can win: They still have two really good pitchers in the front of the rotation with Gio and Zimmerman. After that they are deep with Jackson and Detwiller. After that they have several good arms in the pen to shut the door. Why they can’t win: Offensively they are above average but not great. They need to rely on their pitching because they are not likely to win any slugfests. Not sure what they were thinking with how they managed Strasburg. Without him they are still good, with him they would be heavy favorites. Cincinnati Reds Tied with the Nats for best record in baseball can they keep up their winning ways in October against the likes of the Giants and their pitching? Why they can win: All 5 of the N.L. playoff teams are in the top 6 in pitching. The Reds however are tied for 1st in the N.L. with theNats in E.R.A. and are 1st among N.L. Playoff teams in Walks allowed. Their bullpen is going to be tough to score off of as well with Marshall and Chapman at the back end. Defensively they are second among N.L.playoff teams in UZR and defensive runs saved. Why they can’t win: Offensively they are challenged. They can hit for power, but some of that is Home Park. They don’t really hit for average or get on base outside Joey Votto. They are slow on the base paths as well ranking 3rd from the bottom in the N.L. in stolen bases. San Francisco Giants It looks like it all begins with Matt Cain and Madison Bumgardner. The big questions though, can they hit? And can Tim Lincecum return to form? Why they can win: Anytime you can go 1-2 with Matt Cain and Madison Bumgardner you have to like your chances. The bullpen has also been lights out this season making up for the loss of Brian Wilson. Offensively they are not as challenged as you would think ranking middle of the pack in runs scored and 4th in the N.L. in OBP and 3rd in AVG. Why they can’t win: Tim Lincecum has been unreliable all season so he’s not an option if you need a must win. They also don’t have many guys who can knock the ball out of the park. Atlanta Braves They come in with everything clicking, the main thing standinging their way, a one game playoff were anything could go wrong. Why they can win: Chris Medlen has been unstoppable. Follow that up with Tim Hudson and Mike Minor and you’re in good shape. Add in a good bullpen with Kimbrall at the back and the door is all but shut with the lead. Defensively no one comes close having huge leads in UZR and defensive runs saved. All 3 of the outfielders could win gold gloves with Bourn and Heywerd the top 2 defensive OF in the N.L. The combination of pitching and defense make the Braves a tough team to score runs on. Why they can’t win Offensively they are middle of that pack in almost every category. If their pitchers have a bad night they will have a hard time catching up with the bats. Also they have to burn Medlen in a one game playoff in which anything can go wrong. St. Louis Cardinals O.K. time to ask the question, Can David Freese do it again? Why they can win: The cardinals have the most runs scored among N.L. playoff teams. They are also tops in AVG. and OBP. Why they can’t win: Well for starters facing Chris Medlen in a one game winnertake all is never a good start. Their pitching has also just been good enoughthis season. However Wainwright hasn’t really been Wainwright yet coming off surgery. No idea what you can get out of Carpenter since he has only thrown 17 innings. And Loshe’s numbers are somewhat misleading when you consider a low BABIP and HR% per fly ball. Also their defensive numbers are rather uninspiring and they have several players who are banged up and prone to injury. The road to repeat will not be an easy one. In the end my predictions look like this: A.L Wild Card: Rangers over Orioles N.L. Wild Card: Braves over Cardinals A.L.D.S. Tigers over Athletics in 5. Rangers over Yankees in4 N.L.D.S. Giants over Reds in 4. Nationals over Braves in 5 A.L.C.S Rangers over Tigers in 7 MVP Adrian Beltre N.L.C.S. Giants over Nationals in 7 MVP Buster Posey World Series: Giants over Rangers in 6 MVP MadisonBumgardner Of course I’m wrong every year so that mean the Giants willprobably lose in the first round. But its October, Everyone grab a drink andsit down and enjoy some good baseball.

Playoff Rundown: Whyeach team can and can’t win it all Well it’s that time of year again, the greatest of those months, October. With the postseason about to get underway every baseball fan has one question on his or her mind; who will win it all? With that question in mind experts and amateurs alike try to look at the numbers and try to predict who has the best shot. However the same logic and metric we use in a regular season don’t always work the same in October. As we have seen in the past season anything can happen in a short series. October usually come down to who got hot at the right time. And with this year’s contenders the field is looking pretty even. However if you look at most of the World Series winners of the last few years there are a few common factors. So if we look at the Cardinals who came out of nowhere last year what went right for them? You know aside from David Freese hitting everything and then some. Well Chris Carpenter also pitched his tail off the entire postseason. So for me two factors stick out,t he ability to get hot for a stretch and top of the line starting pitching. Of course its baseball so anything can happen, the Cardinals also had the weather work their way allowing Carpenter to pitch game 7. All that being said let’s look at what’s right and what’s wrong with this year’s hopefuls. New York Yankees They scared their fan base blowing a ten game lead in the final month or so but managed to play just a little bit better then Baltimore to finish for the division lead and thanks to Texas falling apart, the number one spot in the American League. Why they can win: In the postseason it all begins and ends with pitching. TheYankees are 5th in the league in ERA which isn’t great but not bad, however they are tied for 2nd in strikeouts and 1st in walks. On the front end of the rotation they have C.C. and Kuroda. The may be missing Rivera but Robertson, Soriano, and Phelps have all been good. On the offensive side they lead the majors in HR hit and the A.L. in OBP. Why they can’t win: C.C. has looked better his last two starts but there is still worry about his health. If you look at Andy Pettit’s Numbers they look good but it was a total of 75 innings, he isn’t exactly young anymore. As a team they seem to have trouble hitting with runners in scoring position. They are also kind of old as a team. A-rods been hurt, Texeria has been hurt. Defensively they have one of the worst teamsi n term of range. They also lack team speed. Something else that could come into play, They have allowed the 3rd most HR in the A.L. part of that is because of the ballpark. However in the 1st round they have to face either Texas or Baltimore who also have hit 200 or more HR and both play in hitter’s parks. And if they have to face the Rangers in a slugfest the Rangers have more offensive weapons to beat you with. Oakland Athletics They shocked the world by coming from 13 games back as of June 30th and overcame the mighty Rangers on the last day of the season. They are on fire but they saying in baseball goes “Momentum is next days starting pitcher.” Why they can win: The A’s pitching staff has the best ERA among A.L.contenders. Every kid they have called up has stepped up and down thier job well. The bullpen has also been lights out. They also allowed the fewest homeruns. (Although the ballpark plays a factor in that.) They only hit 5 fewer HR then the Rangers. They are also the best defensive team in term of range and defensive runs saved among the A.L. Playoff teams. Why they can’t win They have no real ace. They are also throwing lots ofrookies out there and you always have to wonder how they will perform under the bright lights of October. Like the Yankees the hit home runs but have hit only.238 as a team with a .310 OBP. They also with the new format have to go into Detroit and face Verlander and Scherzer. Detroit Tigers They were one of the preseason favorites with all the spending, but they just got into the playoffs in baseball’s worst division. Can their super stars step up and carry them through October? Why they can win: When your rotation starts out Verlander, Scherzer, and Fister as your front three you’re in pretty good shape. They also have the bash brothers of Cabrera and Fielder with Jackson hitting in front of them. Then throw in the added advantage of starting the first two games at home under the new format and the Tigers look like they have a good start on things. Why they can’t win: Scherzers health is a concern; if he can’t go they will have to rely on Sanchez. Their offense is built around 3 players, you can hope Young steps up like he did last year maybe but Peralta, Avila, and Rayburn have al lhad down years. The bullpen has issues and Valverde is always an adventure. They could also give away several runs ranking at the bottom in almost all defensive categories. Texas Rangers The Rangers lost 7 of their last 9 games to blow a big division lead. Five days ago they were considered the most talented team in baseball.The question now is whether that last stretch was a fluke or a trend. Why they can win: They still have loads of talent. The O’s and Yankees both have more home runs but the Rangers have all around better hitting and have the ability to run the bases. Despite the lack of a true ace they have pitching depth. The bullpen has been very good all season. Defensively they are behind the A’s but way ahead of the other three possible A.L. Opponents. Why they can’t win: Having to use Darvish in the Wild Card game will hurt their chances. Then there is the fact that anything can happen in a single game. They don’t have that Ace to go toe to toe with the likes of a Sabathia or Verlander. And all the other A.L. Managers can manage circles around Ron Washington. Baltimore Orioles They Joined the A’s in shocking the world to make the playoffs, however The O’s have everything go right and then some for them. That amazing stretch of one run wins and extra inning wins; can they keep that trend going one more month? Why they can win: Why stop now? Their biggest advantages are the bullpen, hitting for power, and the manager. Defensive metrics for the season are alittle skewed having called up Machado. The numbers are low but they have their good defensive players in the right spots at C, SS, CF, and 3B. Why they can’t win: They have a lack of an Ace or Starting pitching depth. The amazing trends they had going all season are far less likely to continue when constantly facing good teams. Washington Nationals Everyone expected them to be better, but not this much better. The big question is how much they will miss Strasburg. Why they can win: They still have two really good pitchers in the front of the rotation with Gio and Zimmerman. After that they are deep with Jackson and Detwiller. After that they have several good arms in the pen to shut the door. Why they can’t win: Offensively they are above average but not great. They need to rely on their pitching because they are not likely to win any slugfests. Not sure what they were thinking with how they managed Strasburg. Without him they are still good, with him they would be heavy favorites. Cincinnati Reds Tied with the Nats for best record in baseball can they keep up their winning ways in October against the likes of the Giants and their pitching? Why they can win: All 5 of the N.L. playoff teams are in the top 6 in pitching. The Reds however are tied for 1st in the N.L. with theNats in E.R.A. and are 1st among N.L. Playoff teams in Walks allowed. Their bullpen is going to be tough to score off of as well with Marshall and Chapman at the back end. Defensively they are second among N.L.playoff teams in UZR and defensive runs saved. Why they can’t win: Offensively they are challenged. They can hit for power, but some of that is Home Park. They don’t really hit for average or get on base outside Joey Votto. They are slow on the base paths as well ranking 3rd from the bottom in the N.L. in stolen bases. San Francisco Giants It looks like it all begins with Matt Cain and Madison Bumgardner. The big questions though, can they hit? And can Tim Lincecum return to form? Why they can win: Anytime you can go 1-2 with Matt Cain and Madison Bumgardner you have to like your chances. The bullpen has also been lights out this season making up for the loss of Brian Wilson. Offensively they are not as challenged as you would think ranking middle of the pack in runs scored and 4th in the N.L. in OBP and 3rd in AVG. Why they can’t win: Tim Lincecum has been unreliable all season so he’s not an option if you need a must win. They also don’t have many guys who can knock the ball out of the park. Atlanta Braves They come in with everything clicking, the main thing standinging their way, a one game playoff were anything could go wrong. Why they can win: Chris Medlen has been unstoppable. Follow that up with Tim Hudson and Mike Minor and you’re in good shape. Add in a good bullpen with Kimbrall at the back and the door is all but shut with the lead. Defensively no one comes close having huge leads in UZR and defensive runs saved. All 3 of the outfielders could win gold gloves with Bourn and Heywerd the top 2 defensive OF in the N.L. The combination of pitching and defense make the Braves a tough team to score runs on. Why they can’t win Offensively they are middle of that pack in almost every category. If their pitchers have a bad night they will have a hard time catching up with the bats. Also they have to burn Medlen in a one game playoff in which anything can go wrong. St. Louis Cardinals O.K. time to ask the question, Can David Freese do it again? Why they can win: The cardinals have the most runs scored among N.L. playoff teams. They are also tops in AVG. and OBP. Why they can’t win: Well for starters facing Chris Medlen in a one game winnertake all is never a good start. Their pitching has also just been good enoughthis season. However Wainwright hasn’t really been Wainwright yet coming off surgery. No idea what you can get out of Carpenter since he has only thrown 17 innings. And Loshe’s numbers are somewhat misleading when you consider a low BABIP and HR% per fly ball. Also their defensive numbers are rather uninspiring and they have several players who are banged up and prone to injury. The road to repeat will not be an easy one. In the end my predictions look like this: A.L Wild Card: Rangers over Orioles N.L. Wild Card: Braves over Cardinals A.L.D.S. Tigers over Athletics in 5. Rangers over Yankees in4 N.L.D.S. Giants over Reds in 4. Nationals over Braves in 5 A.L.C.S Rangers over Tigers in 7 MVP Adrian Beltre N.L.C.S. Giants over Nationals in 7 MVP Buster Posey World Series: Giants over Rangers in 6 MVP MadisonBumgardner Of course I’m wrong every year so that mean the Giants willprobably lose in the first round. But its October, Everyone grab a drink andsit down and enjoy some good baseball.

Well here it is, September, the stretch run. For me tied for the second best time of year with opening week and trails only October. This is the time of year when series become critical. I know a win in April counts the same as a win in September. However there is one major difference, a team with a losing streak early in the season has all sorts of time to recover. Right now teams only have about 25 games remaining. Now I know the Twins are out of it but if you call yourself a baseball fan you have no excuse not to pay attention to these races. In the A.L. you have 7 teams that have between 77-73 wins all fighting for the East, West, and Wild Card spots. In the N.L. 3 teams are within a game and a half for the second wild card spot. The Braves only have a 3 and a half game lead for the first wild card spot, and the Dodgers still have a shot in the N.L. west. All that being said let’s look at the big series this weekend. The Yankees and Orioles continue their 4 game series this weekend. Last night in the top of the 8th it looked like this might be the collapse everyone has been waiting on for the O’s. However the 3 home runs they hit in the bottom of the inning show that this team has no intention of folding. Still the O’s need to at least split this series and the Yankees need to avoid a sweep. The national media is slow getting on the Orioles bandwagon. A huge reason for that is because we are so used to the Yankees winning everything. However when some writers call it the Yankee birthright I say they look old. Arod looks awful while running and usually when a hitter has a hand broken its takes as long as a year for the power to return. David Robertson is giving up the long ball and they can’t afford to have him struggling. And as a team they can’t get on base. The key game is Saturday When C.C. takes the mound, if he doesn’t look good the Yankees are in trouble. As for the O’s is this season a fluke? Yes and No. Their run differential suggests that this is not sustainable. They are trying to set two records, most wins while being outscored by opponents, and most 1 run wins. Is it all luck? No, excellent bullpen, timely hitting and having guys step up in the rotation are keeping them going. They are having things go their way at a record pace though; they just need to make it last for 25 more games. The Tigers and Angels hook up in a big wild card series this weekend. At the moment both teams are on the outside looking in at third and fourth place. The Tigers trail the Angels by only half a game. Basically both teams want to sweep to potentially knock out a wild card competitor. Getting swept does serious damage to any wild card hopes. Both teams also face division opponents they currently trail after this series so they want to set themselves up in good position. The Dodgers and Giants have a huge series this weekend in what’s the best rivalry in baseball this season. For the Dodgers this weekend could be the season. They currently trail the Giants by four and a half games in the west and the Cardinals by one and a half games for the second wild card spot. San Francisco can all but lock up the west with a sweep this weekend. And unless St. Louis gets drilled by the Brewers at home the Dodgers will be hard pressed for a wild card spot too. The Dodgers need to get it started off right with their new acquisition Josh Beckett on the hill tonight against Lincecum. The Giants have the advantage in game 2 with Cain against Capueano. If the Dodgers find their backs to the wall trying to avoid the sweep on Sunday they at least have Kershaw going. Other series of note The Rays hoping the Yanks and O’s beat up on each other have a tough task in taking on Texas. And adding insult to injury the Red Sox battle the Blue Jays trying to avoid last place in the east. For our Twins this weekend all I can say is it’s about time they retire Tom Kelly’s number