TwinsDr2021

The Twins will need all of their starting pitching depth, and then some more than likely.  Even the healthiest teams use 6-7 starters over the course of a full season.  Factoring in recent injury woes for Twins pitchers and one thinks the Twins will use 6-7 starters easily this year. But lets assume the Twins keep a 5 man rotation.  With the Twins most likely using 6-7, there will still be 4-5 "Primary starters".  and 2-3 that will either be short term starters, sporadic starters, or spot starters.  
We have some obvious Primary Starters locked in.  Sonny Gray, Joe Ryan, and Pablo Lopez  are locks.
Lets go ahead and assume that Tyler Mahle  is fully healthy and will be good to go. that is a 4th no brainer.  So who is, or better yet who SHOULD be #5?
I can tell you right who IS, or WILL be #5, and that is Kenta Maeda. The Twins will be banking on Maeda being the All Star level pitcher he was in 11 games in the Covid shortened 2020 season. Where in 11 games he went 66 innings, good for a 6+ inning average with 80K against 10 BB a 2.70 ERA and a 0.75 WHIP.
But... SHOULD he be th e5th starter? and is it reasonable to expect that after a year+ off? His career averages are a 3.87 ERA  just under a 4:1  K:BB rate,  a 9.85K/9  and a 1.14 WHIP.  Those are still very good numbers anyone would love to have in the rotation.
That being said, in albeit a much shorter sample size, Ober has career numbers of 3.82 ERA, just under a 5:1 K rate, a 9K/9IP and a 1.15 WHIP..
If we go by the numbers,  it says they are both equally effective starting pitchers. And the question you must ask then is... "IF they are both equal, and  both interchangeable for each other, then who should be the 5th starter?"
"Common sense" or maybe more accurately "traditional thinking" says it should be Maeda, as Ober still has options.  But should he???
I would argue we need to look longer term. Any player CAN be resigned this offseason, so in theory ANY of our starters could be back, BUT... in reality we will not resign everyone, and we actually have only Randy Dobnak and Chris Paddack under contract for next year. Of course Joe Gray will be here, and will still have rights to Lopez, BUT the only sure things are Dobnak and Paddack.  Most likely Sonny Gray and Maeda will be gone.
With that in mind, I think the correct way to look at things, assuming both pitchers should give roughly the same results is to go with the pitcher who will still be here going forward and continue to give him the experience and build up he will need for next year. This way next year is not his first "full year" in the rotation and is not as much of a question mark.
Secondly while predominately a starter in LA, Maeda did also show he can be very successful out of the bullpen, and if you are a cheapskate you can save millions in bonuses paid to Maeda with him in a relief/PT starter situation.
The clear way of thinking screams the 5th starter needs to be Ober vs Maeda.

Just popped in to check play-off results and discovered starting pitchers are going seven innings on three-days rest. Somebody step in and stop this cruelty or somebody is going to get hurt!

OK, Honestly I really do not enjoy being critical or a pessimist.  But I nearly did a spit-take when I saw Dave St Peter give the Twins FO and "Falvine"   "High Marks".  Seriously, from what benchmark can you give this FO high marks?
Can you blame them for the injuries and the failures down the stretch?  Well yeah, at least a little bit. They trade for TWO starting pitchers that had injury histories.  Anyone could see Paddack's injury coming, and it was called here and many other places at the time fo the trade. No Monday Mornign QBing here.  Mahle had his shoulder. yet we gave away some good prospects for pitchers with injury histories, so yes, you can.  
 
They did sign some OK pitchers, Archer, even though could not go past 4 innings was serviceable most fo the year, and Bundy was also serviceable. but nothing overly exciting, and neither at this point is on the Twins moving forward, so still left in the same position pitching wise as last offseason (ok maybe a little better, should have Ryan, Ober, Gray, Maeda)
Our position players are in a state of flux at best.  Kudos for signing Correa, but he is gone. Sanchez and Urshela were decent, and you cant fault them for Buxtons contract, that was a pretty good signing, regardless of what BUxton does. 
A couple good young players, Miranda.. Coudl Wallner be decent?
otherwise top prospects busted for various reasons injury Kiriloff, Lewis, Larnach,  and some just didnt pan out.
So we made some decent moves, and our Major league club overall was good but fell completely off map at the end with little momentum or positivity going into th e offseason.  SO maybe they receive "marks" but "high marks"  they were average at best!!
 
Well maybe they have put our Minor League program in a stronger position...
 
Well MLB has our system ranked 23rd.  down from #12 as recently as 202 mid-season rankings.  and #8 in 2019 with (Lewis, Kirilloff, Graterol, Balazovic, Larnach as the keys).
So you sign ONE top of the shelf FA, who will be gone after this year,  a couple pitchers off the scrap heap, deal some top talent for injured pitchers (and one quality starter in Gray) to field a below .500 team, all while dropping your minor league system from #9 to #23 and that earns High Marks?
 
I just have oen question...
Mr. St. Peter, can you do my next performance appraisal for my end of year bonus???