kab21

I think he was injured before he completely blew out his elbow and that probably explains the poor results. He had been shut down at one point IIRC. Here are his splits in 2011 April - 3.15 ERA - 26% K rate - 5% BB rate May - 3.86 ERA - 26% K rate - 5% BB rate June - 5.17 ERA - 18% K rate - 9% BB rate July - 11 ERA - 11% K rate - 11% BB rate He was ready imo. Hopefully he can get back to that point and be a May/June callup next year. One other complaint in this thread - Why does Joe Mays name get brought up? Yes, he had TJ but he was awful before TJ. He's not an example of someone that didn't recover from TJ. He's somebody that wasn't as good as Blackburn that came crashing back to earth and TJ was blamed for his crash.

they would still be terrible with Buehrle or CJ Wilson and they would be stuck with that pitcher in the latter years of the contract (like Lowe or Burnett). History is not very kind to mid level, 30 something pitchers that sign big contracts. I know the board is clamoring for some big spending on on a couple of starters this winter but I think it's a mistake. Either go big for a stud or pick a guy with a shorter commitment even if he's unimpressive. The problem is that there aren't a lot of starters out there and there will be a lot of competition for them.

There are 3 guys in Sickel's top 64 and Hicks was in the top125 or HM's so it's not that crazy. Buxton will almost definitely be top 50. Gibson could also shoot up lists if he looks decent. And Harrison (and possibly goodrum) could find himself on lists also. I don't really think 5 guys in the top 100 is overly optimistic.

Harrison 5/6 with a HR - the next Etown legend? Hicks 3/4 with a HR Polanco trying to be a prospect with 3 hits Kepler with 2 H's and 2 BB's - kepler now has a 6:16 K:BB ratio - he's not much of a hitter yet but he loves to walk Sano - a hit and 3 K's

This is true when you are a player or two away from being a contender. The Twins are a few players away from being .500 and there isn't that much money available.

I'm not sure if there has ever been a prospect that caused fans emotions to swing as high or low as Hicks due to hot/cold streaks. Now if he can just avoid that ice cold streak. Imo there is no reason to call up Hicks/Arcia this year due to the sad truth of baseball economics. Hopefully we don't have to wait for the super 2 deadline to pass next summer though for Hicks. I would be surprised if Arcia was up before then.

I would like to hear some baseball examples where spending took a team out of the cellar. The examples that I think of are the Cubs and Mets which have been awful for years partly due to getting stuck with awful contracts like Bay's and Soriano's That is the result of spending big in FA. Bad teams improve by rebuilding their farm systems which the Twins are doing. They have 4 prospects in the top 75 right now and they will likely end up with 3-4 more in the 75-150. They also spent nearly all of their draft budget which was the largest (or 2nd largest) in the majors and they have spent a lot of money internationally this year (and in past years). I think it's funny how the Wolves were mentioned as an example of a team spending to get better. That's not really true if you follow the Wolves. They have been dreadfully awful for years and for too long they were bringing in mediocre vets on ugly contracts. Finally they figured it out and went nuts slashing payroll to put themselves into a position that they can spend a little now that they have developed a very good young core to build around. I'll repeat that. They were awful, they slashed payroll and waited for a young core to develop. I don't expect the Twins to drastically slash payroll but they need to be very careful committing money long term. signing a bunch of aging vets (a majority of FA's) to somewhat long contracts is not what this team needs. They need to be very careful on any contracts longer than 2 years imo.

http://www.minorleagueball.com/2012/7/2/3130761/top-120-prospect-list-for-2012-midseason-revision-update

they might have different budgets for draft and MLB but there's no reason that it shouldn't be part of the 50-55% of spending. I'm happy that they are investing in the draft and int'l FA this year and prefer it to signing more mediocre vets.

Fun with numbers is supposed to be depressing numbers. Stop spreading the optimism.

Anibal and Colby will likely get as much as C.J. and Buehrle did last year. Anibal might even get more than C.J. Combined they will easily get more than 25M and probably close to 30M. Starting pitching is always overpaid in free agency.

The team should be looking at working out a 3 yr deal with Burton and not trading him. It was just a year ago that the bullpen was the scapegoat for the terrible team. Burton is also in arb for one more season anyway.

Perhaps they realized that they weren't one player away from being good and didn't feel like sacrificing future payroll flexibility to pick a couple extra wins. I feel like I'm repeating myself but rebuilding through FA is pretty much a guarantee to prolong that rebuilding. Outbidding the Marlins for Buehrle at 4/48 or Wilson at 5/75 (IIRC) is not a good strategy to fix the team.

Who was out there to sign? Buehrle at 4/48? CJ at 5/75?

It's a lot and it's risky but I think they can get away with if they don't trade him and he doesn't completely implode. I don't think he has any intention in returning to MN after all of the finger pointing and negative press the last couple of years.

9-10M/yr doesn't even buy you a 33 yr old Mark Buehrle in FA. I find it humorous that so many think the Twins are going to be able to sign 2 decent FA pitchers this year when they are likely competing with at least 20 teams for probably 6 decent FA starters. And that includes the too expensive Greinke and Hamels. First the Twins need to rebuild (like the Wolves) and then they can use those dollars in FA. The twins don't need a couple of guys like Colby Lewis sucking up 12+M/yr in 2015 and 2016. FA is not how you rebuild. It's how you add to a contending team. that's not to say the won't sign a starter this offseason but anyone expecting the Twins to spend 30-40M this offseason rebuilding is going to be disappointed. My predictions for what the 6 decent pitchers will sign for Greinke/Hamels - 5/100+ Sanchez - 5/75 - He's 28 and pretty good Marcum - 4/60 - kind of a wildcard because he's injured Lewis - 4/45+ - instead of laughing look at what Buehrle got McCarthy - 4/40+ - he might get more money/years because he's young

Here is a fangraphs look at the WAR from the top 3 members of each rotation in the majors. It was from an Angels article showing that their dynamite rotation of Weaver, Wilson and Haren is only OK but it also shows the Twins and their ineptitude. Sadly the number goes down when expanded to 5 starters. Diamond, Liriano and Pavano are the only starters with a positive WAR. http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/wp-content/uploads/2012/07/Swydan1.png

I'm not sure that I really understand what rebuilding the Twins way is. They have never had to rebuild unless you count the nearly decade long cellar dwelling as rebuilding. Before that was a completely different baseball economy. What the Twins should be doing is stocking their minor leagues with as much talent as possible and focusing on 2014/2015. Imo they really need to focus their efforts farther out than trying to be respectable in 2013. They are going to be bad and I don't want to endure a really long rebuilding effort.

My team still wants to hang onto the fringes of the playoff race. Dave - I'll trade you Sano, my 1st rd'er and Hendriks (you like him and I don't as much) for Trumbo. Interested?

It's not really a fair comparison imo. The last half of Ryan's GM tenure was spent with winning teams so he wouldn't have been dealing veterans with long term contracts. In addition I don't remember a lot of deals happening (in season or offseason) with more than 1 year left on their contracts. If they did it was more likely that the players traded were out of favor with the coaching staff or had a better replacement waiting (AJ for example). Span will get traded when Ryan gets a good offer and it will have nothing to do with Ryan's history. I'm just hoping he doesn't force a trade and take a mediocre MLB ready starting pitcher prospect because it fills a need. As far as I'm concerned I won't be angry if the Twins don't trade everyone. The only player that needs to be traded is Liriano. Everyone else either doesn't have a lot of (or any) value or they will be back next year. I will be angry if the Twins make crappy trades giving away good players (Span and Willy) for mediocre NEEDS because they feel like they need to make a move.

I guess that I've accepted that 2013 is going to be ugly. I would rather add the most talent to the org regardless of where the player is (minors/majors) or what position he plays.

You still take the best talent. I would rather get a better OF prospect than a mediocre SP prospect even if that's not what the Twins need. There will only be a couple of teams interested in a player and you have to take what is available in their systems.

I'm still anti-Hamilton although he is a top 50 prospect. I want to see how he hits outside of the cal league. It makes the PCL look like a pitcher's league with its thin air (less pitch movement), hard infield (allowing balls thru) and deep fences (the ball rolls forever). It's perfect for Hamilton. The SB's are ridiculous though. I'm a lot more interested in Corcino since he doesn't come with the hype. Willingham for corcino and a 2nd decent prospect (top 100 tweener).

yeah, great he MIGHT become the next Pedro Feliz. I guess I just don't get excited about a prospect when you hope that he can post a .300 OBP and a .700 OPS. Defense only takes you so far. Imo this shows you just how low Morneau's trade value is. The Twins would need to pay 15-20M (of the 21M remaining) to get mediocre prospects back. At that point you just keep Morneau.

From Sickels midseason revision (offseason) Sano #12 (#31) Rosario #46 (90) Arcia #64 (91) Hicks HM I would probably flipflop Arcia/Rosario and gibson is at a minimum an HM for me. Things are definitely looking up since there should be 4 top 50 guys in the system next year. And there could be several guys sneaking in the bottom of the top 100.