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Thrylos

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  1. Like
    Thrylos got a reaction from Oldgoat_MN for a blog entry, 2017 Twins Off-Season top 60 Prospect List: 56-60   
    Originally published at The Tenth Inning Stretch
    -----
    You can find the introductory segment in this series, including my criteria for eligibility to be a prospect and the list of the 2016 top 40 players who graduated as prospects or are not in the system, here. Here is my 2016 Twins off-season top 40 prospects list (summary of 1-40) for reference.
     
    Without further ado, here is the 2017 countdown of prospects, with their ranking in the 2016 list in parenthesis:
     
    60. Mike Cederoth (--)
    DOB: 11/25/1992; Age: 24
    Positions: RHP
    Bats: R, Throws: R
    Height: 6'6", Weight: 195 lbs
    Acquired: Drafted in the 3rd round in 2014
    Professional Experience: 3; Highest level: A (2015, 2016)
    ETA: 2018
     
    Mike Cederoth was drafted by the Twins in the 3rd round of the 2014 draft from San Diego State University. The San Diego native started in his first years at SDSU and he was their closer his last year, dropping his ERA to about half (2.29 vs 4.26) and saving 20 games. In 2012 Cederoth was hit on the face by a comebacker, suffered a fractured jaw and had to have it wired shut for seven weeks. He was one of several College closers that the Twins have drafted that season with the intent to convert to starters but failed. Cederoth was ranked as the Twins' 23rd best prospect in my 2015 off-season list, after an unfortunate season in Elizabethton, and disappeared from my rankings in 2016, after a more unfortunate season in Cedar Rapids, both as a starter. This season the Twins converted him back to a reliever and he repeated the A level Cedar Rapids assignment with promising results: He appeared in 30 games, pitched 47-2/3 innings, striking out 61 (11.5 K/9, 29.2% K%), walking 33 (6.23 BB/9, 13.4% K%-BB%) for a 1.43 WHIP (.288 BABIP, 88.3% LOB%), 2.45 ERA and 3.87 FIP. His strikeout rate against RHBs was phenomenal (he faced 86 RHBs total and struck out 37). A major difference from his previous seasons was that his first two seasons as a starter he had averaged 2 ground ball outs to all other outs where last season the ration was 0.84, which indicates a major difference in his approach.
     
    Even out of college Cederoth had two ready pitches: a plus plus fastball that sits in the high 90s and touches triple digits and a plus slider. He has been playing with a curveball and changeup in the minors that are workable, but not above average. His curveball has had flashes of above average. His problem has always been his delivery and mechanics and this has translated into more than optimal walks, which is his barrier to excellence and the one thing that he needs to overcome to become a major league pitcher, because his fastball and slider are major league ready. Full transition to the bullpen and a program geared towards improving his mechanics may do wonders for Cederoth, as the abandonment of his two lesser pitches. But he has a long way to go.
     
    Likely 2017 path: Will start the season in the A+ Fort Myers bullpen and depending on his success will move to AA Chattanooga.
     
    59. Aaron Whitefield (--)
    DOB: 9/2/1996; Age: 20
    Positions: IF/OF
    Bats: R, Throws: R
    Height: 6'4", Weight: 200 lbs
    Acquired: International Free Agent from Australia
    Professional Experience: 2; Highest level: Rookie/GCL (2015, 2016)
    ETA: 2020
     
    Aaron Whitefield was signed by the Twins as an International Free Agent from Australia. 2016 was his second professional season (he played 7 games in the GCL in 2015) and it highlighted Whitefield's versatility and steady hitting. He played 51 games in the Rookie Gulf Coast League, starting 17 at CF, 8 at RF, 2 at LF, 5 at 3B and 18 at 1B. Outfield is probably his best position, but at 6'4" and growing, having the versatility to play first base might help his career. He is an excellent fielder thoughout. He also played shortstop in the Australian Baseball League. He hit .298/.370/.366 with 2 HR, 7 2B, in 217 PA. Struck out 47 times and walked 19, stole 31 bases and was caught 9 times. In addition to the 19 BBs, he had 48 singles, which means he attempted to steal 40 of the 67 times he reached first base, which is a very high rate. His bat is advanced for someone with only few years of playing baseball (Whitefield is a converted softball player) and improving. As most converted softball players, he is hitting RHP better that LHP. His slash line against RHP was .325/.366/.423 vs .250/.378/.265 against LHP. This off-season Whitefield is playing for his hometown Brisbane in the Australian League and hitting .342/.387/.541 (.349/.407/.566 against RHPs) with 4 HRs and 12/14 SB in 118 PA in 28 games. The competition in the ABL is much higher than that at the GCL, which is very encouraging.
     
    Whitefield is still very raw, but has good instincts both with the glove and the bat. The bat will continue to improve the more he gets adjusted to baseball from softball, and right now it is much ahead of his peers. He is one of the players who might make considerable jumps in prospect lists, since he has all the makings of a five-tool player if his power improves. Definitely a player to follow.
     
    Likely 2017 path: Based on his ABL progress, I am bullish on Whitefield. I think that he will start the season in Cedar Rapids and skip Elizabethton
     
     
    58. Tanner English (--)
    DOB: 3/11/1993; Age: 23
    Positions: CF
    Bats: R, Throws: R
    Height: 5'10", Weight: 160 lbs
    Acquired: Drafted in the 11th round in 2014
    Professional Experience: 3; Highest level: AAA (2016)
    ETA: 2018
     
    Tanner English was drafted by the Twins in the 11th round of the 2014 draft from the University of South Carolina. The Pittsburgh, PA, native is one of the purest centerfielders in the Twins' system with a plus glove. He played 7 games in AAA last season out of need, however he spent most of the season in A+ Florida State League Fort Myers with the Miracle, and about three months of it in the disabled list because of a concussion. English's career minor league numbers (.270/.372/.425, 13 HR, 31 2B, 14 3B, 54/62 SB in 756 PA in 177 games) added to a plus glove would make one think that he should be ranked maybe in the top 30 of the organization, but his problem has been staying on the field. He plays the game relentlessly, since his days with the South Carolina Gamecocks, and gets hurt. A lot. Those 177 professional games came in three seasons. In addition his hit tool was challenged this season This season in 33 games with the A+ Miracle, English hit .235/.348/.429 and struck out 47 times in 142 PAs (33.1%). He played in the Arizona Fall League for 22 games, where he hit .239/.333/.338 with 25 K in 81 PAs (30.9%). Those strikeout rates, in addition to problems with making contact demonstrated by the .230s batting average against better pitching this season question his potential as a major leaguer.
     
    His numbers (.417/.548/.750, 7 BB, 7K) in a super small sample of 31 PAs against LHP this season at Fort Myers, offer a glimmer of hope. However, returning from a concussion is not an easy accomplishment and English will have an uphill battle.
     
    Likely 2017 path: Will start the season in AA Chattanooga
     
     
    57. Williams Ramirez (--)
    DOB: 8/8/1992; Age: 24
    Positions: RHP
    Bats: R, Throws: R
    Height: 6'1", Weight: 200 lbs
    Acquired: International Free Agent from the Dominican Republic
    Professional Experience: 4; Highest level: A (2016)
    ETA: 2019
     
    Williams Ramirez was signed as a 20 year old from the Dominican Republic on December of 2012 and spend his first two professional seasons in the Dominican Summer League, coming stateside in the 2015 season. He is a late bloomer. In his first season stateside he pitched for the GCL Twins in 11 games (9 starts) for 47-1/3 innings, walking 19 and striking out 54 (29.2%). He had a miniscule 1.14 ERA, 2.82 FIP, 0.908 WHIP (.211 BABIP). Last season he jumped two levels to the A Midwest League Cedar Rapids where he moved permanently to the pen and had a similarly good season: 29 games, 55 innings, walking 34 and striking out 66 (29.7%). 2.62 ERA, 3.38 FIP, 1.055 WHIP (.197 BABIP). His BABIP is bothersome as are his bases on balls. However the reason for walking is not mechanics, but inconsistency of his secondary pitches. He has a plus fastball with good movement that sits in the mid 90s and touches 96, a curve ball that flashes plus on occasion, but is out of control and a below average change up. He participated in the instructional league this off-season.
     
    Ramirez is lethal against RHBs, allowing them to hit only .111 and striking out 39 of the 87 he faced, which may indicate that if he attends to his control issues he could potentially be a valuable arm out a pen. Still at 24, he will be a bit older than most leagues he pitches.
     
    Likely 2017 path: Will start the season in A+ Fort Myers and maybe move up to Chattanooga depending on results and need.
     
     
    56. Colton Davis (--)
    DOB: 1/5/1994; Age: 23
    Positions: RHP
    Bats: R, Throws: R
    Height: 6'1", Weight: 160 lbs
    Acquired: Drafted in the 25th round in 2016
    Professional Experience: 1; Highest level: A (2016)
    ETA: 2019
     
    Colton Davis was drafted by the Twins in the 25th round of last July's draft as a Senior from Western Carolina University. The Commerce, GA native was assigned to Rookie Appalachian League Elizabethton Twins and he pitched in 13 games before moving to A Midwest League Cedar Rapids Kernels for 2 games in September because of need. Davis was an all conference Academic Criminology major and his career numbers (90 games, 9 starts, 146-1/3 IP, 169 H, 98 BB, 177 K, .291 OBA, 33 WP, 12 HBP, 5.84 ERA, 1.907 WHIP) from far suggest that the likelihood to get a pro contract was small, however looking closely there is potential: In his senior 2016 season Davis pitched in 31 games (1 start) for 67-1/3 innings he stuck out 89 batters of whom 34 looking and he had a 7 strikout relief appearance. The previous summer in the New England Collegiate League Davis appeared in 6 games (9-2/3 IP) he had 18 strikeouts (16.8 K/9) and 4 walks (3.7 BB/9) with a 0.93 ERA and 0.930 WHIP. Thus when his walks were controlled, there was a potential for good things. And good things happened to him this season. In 13 games for Elizabethton (19-1/4 IP) he struck out 23 (10.71 K/9, 30.7% K%) walked 8 (3.72 BB/9, 20.0 K-BB%) had a 3.26 ERA, 2.83 FIP and 0.98 WHIP (.262 BABIP) as the Twins' closer.
     
    Consistency and secondary pitches are the name of the game for Davis. He has a low 90s fastball with terrific movement that he can spot around the plate; however his secondary staff leave a lot to be desired. There is a lot of potential there, but also a lot of work to come close to realizing it.
     
    Likely 2017 path: Will start the season in the Cedar Rapids bullpen.
  2. Like
    Thrylos got a reaction from dbminn for a blog entry, The Twins 40-man roster Part 2: Who should be protected from the Rule 5 Draft   
    Originally published at The Tenth Inning Stretch
    ---
     
    The first segment of this series was dedicated to cleaning up the Twins' existing 40-man roster, assuming that the new management will do the right thing and go for a full rebuild. This second segment, further adjusts the roster by adding players to protect from the draft, and maybe subtracting some of the players on the derived roster. As a bonus, I will be listing additional Twins minor leaguers who do not need to be protected for the Rule 5 draft, but might merit consideration for a spot on the roster. This list will give a good overview of the high level minor league talent available currently in the Twins' organization. I will not proposed to add anyone who does not need to be added on the 40-man roster right now, eg. Steven Gonsalves, Jake Reed etc, but instead, the Twins should invite them as non-roster players to the 2017 Spring Training. If they win a job there, they should merit a roster spot, but the Twins would need much roster flexibility this off-season.
     
    Here is the 24 man roster, after the clean up. Noted that if Perkins is moved to the 60-day disabled list, the roster would stand at 23, allowing up to 17 openings:
     
    Jose Berrios 5/27/1994 (RHSP)
    Byron Buxton 12/18/1993 (CF)
    Juan Centeno 11/16/1989 ©
    J.T. Chargois 12/3/1990 (RHRP)
    Tyler Duffey 12/27/1990 (RHRP)
    Phil Hughes 6/24/1986 (RHSP)
    Eduardo Escobar 1/5/1989 (IF)
    Max Kepler 2/10/1993 (RF)
    Yorman Landa 6/11/1994 (RHRP)
    Pat Light 3/29/1991 (RHRP)
    Joe Mauer 4/19/1983 (1B/DH)
    Trevor May 9/23/1989 (RHSP)
    Adalberto Mejia 6/20/1993 (LHSP)
    Mason Melotakis 6/28/1991 (LHRP)
    John Ryan Murphy 5/13/1991 ©
    Byungho Park 7/10/1986 (1B/DH)
    Glen Perkins 3/2/1983 (LHRP) (*)
    Jorge Polanco 7/5/1993 (SS)
    Taylor Rogers 12/17/1990 (LHRP)
    Eddie Rosario 9/28/1991 (LF)
    Randy Rosario 5/18/1994 (LHRP)
    Miguel Sano 5/11/1993 (3B)
    Kennys Vargas 8/1/1990 (1B/DH)
    Adam Walker 10/18/1991 (OF/DH)
     
    Clearly the weakest lings on the roster are the two borderline age-wise position players, Catcher Juan Centeno, and utility infielder Eduardo Escobar. In addition, Pat Light is the weakest relief pitcher, so borderline players would be compared to these three because they will be fighting for their spots.
     
    Here are the Rule 5 Draft-eligible Position players, by position:
     
    Catchers:
     
    Kevin Garcia, 9/17/1992, A/A+, 2016: .249/.302/.323, career: .252/.321/.315
    Mitch Garver, 1/1/1991, AAA/AA, 2016: .270/.342/.422, career: .267/.359/.406 (*)
    Rainis Silva, 3/20/1996 A, 2016: .230/.297/.254, career: .238/.295/.293
    Stuart Turner, 12/27/1991, AA, 2016: .239/.322/.363, career: .241/.325/.352
     
    Clearly Mitch Garver should be on the roster, since he will be fighting for a starting job in 2017. Rainis Silva's glove is the best in the organization at the Catcher position right now, but his bat stinks, and unless that improves (and there is a lot of time, he just turned 20,) there is no risk of losing him. I do not see Kevin Garcia being selected. Whether adding Stuart Turner on the roster, is a toss-up. His bat does not play in the majors, but his glove might. Which brings the question: who should be on the roster, Turner or Centeno? I think that Centeno's lefty bat that was not unrespectable in the majors wins here, but it is a close call. It might be an academic question because the Twins are in dire need of a young good catcher, and if they obtain him this off-season will take the spot now reserved for Centeno.
     
    Additions: Garver
     
    Infielders:
     
    Niko Goodrum, 2/28/1992, A+/AA, 2016: .275/.352/.464, career: .247/.339/.368
    Levi Michael 2/9/1991, AA, 2016: .215/.293/.291, career: .250/.341/.343
    Amaurys Minier, 1/20/1996, RK+, 2016: .222/.318/.449, career: .233/.321/.422
    Rafael Valera, 8/25/1994, A, 2016: .261/.366/.409, career: .260/.380/.333
    Engelb Vielma, 6/22/1994, A+/AA, 2016: .265/.344/.310, career: .264/.327/.309
    Ryan Walker, 3/26/1992, A+/AA, 2016: .271/.347/.345, career: .262/.324/.321
     
    Levi Michael had a terrible season after two strong ones, and I am not sure whether he is even in the Twins' plans right now that the administration that picked him in the first round is extinct. I cannot see Valera or Walker get selected, I think that Niko's Goodrum's career year and positional versatility (can play both positions on the left side of the infield, and can sub for both Sano and Polanco, plus Centerfield) as well as Engelb Vielma's standout glove and improved to respectability bat, will entice teams and could help the Twins in the future. As a matter of fact, either would be better as a utility player for the 2017 Twins than Eduardo Escobar. Both in, Escobar traded/non-tendered. The last player in this list is a wild card. Amaurys Minier has had superstar potential but been plagued by injuries and inconsistencies. Has not played above Elizabethton, but I am so afraid that someone could pull a Johan Santana on the Twins and pick him. Got to protect him for at least another year.
     
    Additions: Goodrum, Minier, Vielma
    Subtractions: Escobar
     
    Outfielders:
     
    Edgar Corcino 6/7/1992, AA/A+ 2016: .273/.337/.420, career: .245/.316/.368
    JJ Fernandez, 3/30/1994, A, 2016: .225/.293/.363, career: .239/.293/.363
    Zach Granite, 9/17/1992, AA, 2016: .295/.347/.382 (56/70 SB), career: .282/.349/.354 (*)
    Max Murphy, 11/17/1992, A/A+, 2016: .236/.289/.358, career: .252/.329/.411
    Travis Harrison, 10/17/1992, AA, 2016: .230/.338/.339, career: .254/.360/.380
    Daniel Palka, 10/28/1991, AA/AAA, 2016: .254/.327/.521, career: .268/.346/.509 (*)
     
    I think that what I wrote previously regardless Levi Michael, applies to Travis Harrison as well. This might be his last chance in the Twins' organization. Fernandez and Murphy are not close to being MLB-ready or selected in the draft. Corcino is a better player than both, but still ways away. This leaves the player whom the Twins named minor league player of the year, Zach Granite, and the player they should had named, Daniel Palka. They both should be protected and added on the 40-man roster. Palka will fight (or push back to second base) Eduardo Rosario for a corner outfielder job and Zach Granite and his 56 stolen bases might make the best 4th outfielder, pinch runner combination the Twins have had for years.
     
    Additions: Granite, Palka
     
    Notable non-Rule 5 Draft-eligible at A+ and above position players:
     
    Nick Gordon (SS) 10/24/1995, A+, 2016: .291/.335/.386, career: .285/.335/.371
    LaMonte Wade (OF) 1/1/1994, A/A+, 2016: .293/.402/.438, career: .297/.409/.459
     
    Both should be invited to the 2017 Spring Training and given the ability to win an MLB job, but they should not be added on the roster unless they need to.
     
    Rule 5 Draft-eligible Pitchers:
     
    Starters:
     
    Ryan Eades ®, 12/15/1991, AA, 2016: 4.61 ERA, 1.376 WHIP, 7.2 K/9 career: 4.33 ERA, 1.379 WHIP, 6.7 K/9
    Felix Jorge.® 1/2/1994, A+/AA, 2016: 2.69 ERA, 1.088 WHIP, 5.9 K/9 career: 3.17 ERA, 1.164 WHIP, 7.4 K/9
    Aaron Slegers, ® 9/4/1992, AA, 2016: 3.41 ERA, 1.259 WHIP, 6.4 K/9 career: 3.54 ERA, 1.178 WHIP, 6.5 K/9
    Fernando Romero, ® 12/24/1994, A/A+, 2016: 2.09 ERA, 0.897 WHIP, 9.0 K/9 career: 2.37 ERA, 1.032 WHIP, 8.8 K/9
    Lewis Thorpe, (L), 11/23/1995. lost 2015 and 2016 with Tommy John surgery & other ailments. 2012-2014: 2.96 ERA, 1.176 WHIP, 11.2 K/9
    Jason Wheeler (L), 10/27/1990, AAA/AA, 2016: 3.30 ERA, 1.163 WHIP, 7.2 K/9 career: 3.66 ERA, 1.325 WHIP, 6.4 K/9
     
    Ryan Eades had a below average season as a starter and I expect him to make the transition to the pen this season, which will be his best opportunity to get to the majors. Felix Jorge and Fernando Romero are just too good not to add. Both, especially Romero, have outside chances of wining a position in the Twins' rotation this spring. They are both no-brainer additions. Lewis Thorpe was a phenomenal prospect who lost 2 seasons in a row. Is he back? Only the Twins know. I just do not see a chance for anyone to select him, but if the Twins think there is, I can see him add him on the roster. I won't. Slegers is an intriguing possibility: He has been above average his career with above average stuff, but has shown nothing eye opening, in both raw stuff and results. Very intriguing conversion to a reliever who might get a mid to high 90s fastball from this frame. Should the Twins add him on the roster and do it? In the expense of Pat Light or any of the other relievers who need protection? I don't think so. Regardless whether he is selected or not, he should be in a bullpen next season. This leaves us to Jason Wheeler whom the Twins protected in 2015, unprotected in 2016, and snubbed him for a call up, in a year he was pitching well in both AA and AAA, for the likes of Anrew Albers. Terrible decision, but I hope that the change in the administration does the right thing and protects him, if for not other reason, because he is lefty and successful and he is second, after Adalberto Mejia, in the Twins LHSP depth chart. This might change during the off-season if the Twins acquire a LHSP or two better than Mejia, and they should target that. But until then, Wheeler is in, at least for 2017 to show what he can do.
     
    Additions: Jorge, Romero, Wheeler
     
    Relievers:
     
    Luke Bard ® 11/13/1990, A+/AA, 2016: 3.74 ERA, 1.400 WHIP, 7.9 K/9 career: 3.23 ERA, 1.310 WHIP, 7.9 K/9
    DJ Baxendale ®, 12/8/1990, As a RP only: AAA 2016: 1.29 ERA, 1.029 WHIP, 10.3 K/9
    Omar Bencomo ® 2/10/1989, AA/AAA, 2016: 3.74 ERA, 1.352 WHIP, 6.8 K/9, career: 3.77 ERA, 1.271 WHIP, 6.7 K/9
    Cameron Booser (L), 5/4/1992, A/A+, 2016: 8.53 ERA, 2.013 WHIP, 12.1 K/9, career: 4.32 ERA, 1.571 WHIP, 12.1 K/9
    Alan Busenitz ® 8/22/1990, AA/AAA, 2016: 3.54 ERA, 1.262 WHIP, 8.1 K/9 career: 3.55 ERA, 1.320 WHIP, 7.6 K/9 (might protect him for political reasons - he came in the Meyer/Nolasco trade, but there are better players)
    C.K. Irby, ®, 5/6/1992, A, 2016: 2.42 ERA, 1.119 WHIP, 10.5 K/9 career: 3.56 ERA, 1.264 WHIP, 11.5 K/9
    Zack Jones ®, 12/4/1990, AA/AAA, 2016: 3.47 ERA, 1.294 WHIP, 12.4 K/9 career: 2.97 ERA, 1.218 WHIP, 12.7 K/9
    Brandon Peterson, ®, 9/23/1991, A+/AA, 2016: 3.30 ERA, 1.150 WHIP, 11.2 K/9 career: 2.41 ERA, 1.109 WHIP, 12.1 K/9
    Brian Gilbert, ®, 8/9/1992, A+, 2016: 5.53 ERA, 2.024 WHIP, 6.2 K/9, career: 3.66 ERA, 1.439 WHIP, 6.6 K/9
    Williams Ramirez, ®, 8/8/1992, A, 2016: 2.62 ERA, 1.055 WHIP, 10.8 K/9, career: 1.97 ERA, 1.038 WHIP, 10.1 K/9
    Todd Van Steensel ®, 1/14/1991, A+/AA, 2016: 3.88 ERA, 1.324 WHIP, 8.2 K/9, career: 3.42 ERA, 1.291 WHIP, 9.7 K/9
     
    This is a long list of 11 relievers, with only one of them (Booser) a lefty. Booser had a disappointing season in both High A and A and will not be selected. The same is true for Brian Gilbert. Bencomo is a last option type of player, and will not be selected. Van Steensel's season was not strong enough to get consideration. C.K. Irby's was, however it was not at a high enough level. The same for Williams Ramirez, but watch out if these two repeat their results in high A and/or AA in 2017. Which brings us to Luke Bard, the Twins' former 1st round pick, who is about to turn 26, and had an average season, but has not been the same after losing 2014 recovering from shoulder surgery. I think that this will be his last chance to prove that he belongs in the prospect conversation and I will not be surprised if it is not in the Twins' organization. Alan Busenitz is an interesting case. He pitched in AA and AAA with average results, that reflect the rest of his minor league career, but the Twins might protect him for political reasons, since he was acquired in the Alex Meyer, Ricky Nolasco trade that also brought Hector Santiago to the Twins. Maybe the new administration will let the past go and would not protect him. I wouldn't. However, I would protect the most successful reliever in the Twins' minor league system, DJ Baxendale, who after transitioning to that role for Rochester upon his promotion from Chatanooga excelled. This leaves us two pitchers who might depart via the draft, and one last off-season: Zach Jones and Brandon Peterson. Got to add Pat Light to the conversation and it is two out of three. I'd picke Jones and Light, risking Peterson's departure, mainly because he has played in more junior levels (only 16 games in AA) and might deemed less ready. But it is a risk.
     
    Additions: Baxendale, Jones.
     
    Notable non-Rule 5 Draft-eligible at A+ and above:
     
    Starters:
     
    Stephen Gonsalves (L) 7/8/1994 A+/AA, 2016: 2.06 ERA, 1.021 WHIP, 10.0 K/9 career: 2.13 ERA, 1.072 WHIP, 9.7 K/9
    Tyler Jay (L) 4/19/1994 A+/AA, 2016: 3.33 ERA, 1.231 WHIP, 8.3 K/9 career: 3.44 ERA, 1.265 WHIP, 8.7 K/9
    Kohl Stewart ®, 10/7/1994, A+/AA, 2016: 2.88 ERA, 1.343 WHIP, 5.7 K/9 career: 2.84 ERA, 1.284 WHIP, 5.9 K/9
     
    Relievers:
     
    Nick Burdi ®, 1/19/1993, AA, 2016: shut down after 3 games, career: 3.72 ERA, 1.322 WHIP, 12.6 K/9
    Trevor Hildenberger ®, 12/15/1990, AA/A+, 2016: 0.75 ERA, 0.792 WHIP, 9.9 K/9 career: 1.47 ERA, 0.823 WHIP, 10.5 K/9
    Jake Reed ®, 9/29/1992, AAA/AA, 2016: 3.57 ERA, 1.175 WHIP, 9.2 K/9 career: 3.47 ERA, 1.130 WHIP, 8.8 K/9
    Michael Theophanopoulos (L), 8/5/1992, A/A+, 2016: 2.20 ERA, 1.163 WHIP, 11.6 K/9 career: 3.29 ERA, 1.351 WHIP, 10.5 K/9
     
    As with the position players, all of the above, in addition to several Rule 5-eligible players who will remain with the Twins but not added to the roster, and hopefully several new young good players should be invited to the Twins 2017 Spring Training.
     
    This leaves the modified Twins 40-man roster with 34 (33 (*) if Perkins is on the 60-day DL) spots and 6 (or 7) openings, which are enough for the Twins to be flexible in targeting acquisitions in trades and potentially shopping the Rule 5 draft and the waiver wire (and a reminder that they have the right of first refusal, because of the worst record in the majors, for both.) Here is the modified roster:
     
    DJ Baxendale 12/8/1990 (RHRP)
    Jose Berrios 5/27/1994 (RHSP)
    Byron Buxton 12/18/1993 (CF)
    Juan Centeno 11/16/1989 ©
    J.T. Chargois 12/3/1990 (RHRP)
    Tyler Duffey 12/27/1990 (RHRP)
    Mitch Garver, 1/1/1991 ©
    Zach Granite, 9/17/1992 (OF)
    Phil Hughes 6/24/1986 (RHSP)
    Zack Jones 12/4/1990 (RHRP)
    Felix Jorge 1/2/1994 (RHSP)
    Niko Goodrum, 2/28/1992 (SS/3B/CF)
    Max Kepler 2/10/1993 (RF)
    Yorman Landa 6/11/1994 (RHRP)
    Pat Light 3/29/1991 (RHRP)
    Joe Mauer 4/19/1983 (1B/DH)
    Trevor May 9/23/1989 (RHSP)
    Adalberto Mejia 6/20/1993 (LHSP)
    Mason Melotakis 6/28/1991 (LHRP)
    Amaurys Minier, 1/20/1996 (1B/OF)
    John Ryan Murphy 5/13/1991 ©
    Daniel Palka, 10/28/1991 (OF)
    Byungho Park 7/10/1986 (1B/DH)
    Glen Perkins 3/2/1983 (LHRP) (*)
    Jorge Polanco 7/5/1993 (SS)
    Taylor Rogers 12/17/1990 (LHRP)
    Fernando Romero 12/24/1994(RHSP)
    Eddie Rosario 9/28/1991 (LF)
    Randy Rosario 5/18/1994 (LHRP)
    Miguel Sano 5/11/1993 (3B)
    Kennys Vargas 8/1/1990 (1B/DH)
    Engelb Vielma, 6/22/1994 (SS)
    Adam Walker 10/18/1991 (OF/DH)
    Jason Wheeler 10/27/1990 (LHSP)
     
     
    Next installment will be a critical view of the roster, assessing weaknesses and looking for potential positions that the Twins should target this off-season.
  3. Like
    Thrylos got a reaction from dbminn for a blog entry, The Twins 40-man roster Part 1: Who should stay and who should go   
    After a historically bad season that resulted in the worst record of the Franchise in its current location, Twins' about to be minted (as soon as Cleveland's season is over) new chief baseball officer, Derek Falvey, will have his hands full in turning this team around. I hope that he has enough flexibility to do a true rebuild. And a true rebuild is to find enough young talented players that will reach their primes together, and then supplemented by star veterans to close holes as necessary, will compete for a long time.
     
    Looking at the Twins' young talent and how their 40-man roster for 2017 should be built, young is an operating word. Here is the current Twins' 40-man roster by age groups: a. Players who will be 26 and younger on 1/1/2017 who should be part of the rebuilt; b. players who will be 28 or older who really do not belong in a rebuilding team, since they will be past their primes when the new Twins' core will reach their primes, and; c. players who are in-between. The 27 year olds:
     
    The listing is alphabetical with birthdays
     
    Andrew Albers 10/6/1985
    James Beresford 1/19/1989
    Jose Berrios 5/27/1994
    Buddy Boshers 5/9/1988
    Byron Buxton 12/18/1993
    Juan Centeno 11/16/1989
    J.T. Chargois 12/3/1990
    Pat Dean 5/25/1989
    Brian Dozier 5/15/1987
    Tyler Duffey 12/27/1990
    Eduardo Escobar 1/5/1989
    Kyle Gibson 10/23/1987
    Robbie Grossman 9/16/1989
    Phil Hughes 6/24/1986 (60-day DL)
    Max Kepler 2/10/1993
    Brandon Kintzler 8/1/1984
    Yorman Landa 6/11/1994
    Pat Light 3/29/1991
    Joe Mauer 4/19/1983
    Trevor May 9/23/1989
    Adalberto Mejia 6/20/1993
    Mason Melotakis 6/28/1991
    Tommy Milone 2/16/1987
    John Ryan Murphy 5/13/1991
    Ryan O'Rourke 4/30/1988
    Byungho Park 7/10/1986
    Glen Perkins 3/2/1983 (60-day DL)
    Trevor Plouffe 6/15/1986
    Ryan Pressly 12/15/1988
    Jorge Polanco 7/5/1993
    Taylor Rogers 12/17/1990
    Eddie Rosario 9/28/1991
    Randy Rosario 5/18/1994
    Ervin Santana 12/12/1982
    Hector Santiago 12/16/1987
    Miguel Sano 5/11/1993
    Logan Schafer 9/8/1986
    Kurt Suzuki 10/4/1983
    Michael Tonkin 11/19/1989
    Kennys Vargas 8/1/1990
    Adam Walker 10/18/1991
    Alex Wimmers 11/1/1988
     
     
    These 42 players sorted in the 3 age groups:
     
    Young enough:
     
    Jose Berrios 5/27/1994
    Byron Buxton 12/18/1993
    J.T. Chargois 12/3/1990
    Tyler Duffey 12/27/1990
    Max Kepler 2/10/1993
    Yorman Landa 6/11/1994
    Pat Light 3/29/1991
    Adalberto Mejia 6/20/1993
    Mason Melotakis 6/28/1991
    John Ryan Murphy 5/13/1991
    Jorge Polanco 7/5/1993
    Taylor Rogers 12/17/1990
    Eddie Rosario 9/28/1991
    Randy Rosario 5/18/1994
    Miguel Sano 5/11/1993
    Kennys Vargas 8/1/1990
    Adam Walker 10/18/1991
     
    Too old:
     
    Andrew Albers 10/6/1985
    Buddy Boshers 5/9/1988
    Brian Dozier 5/15/1987
    Kyle Gibson 10/23/1987
    Phil Hughes 6/24/86
    Brandon Kintzler 8/1/1984
    Joe Mauer 4/19/1983
    Tommy Milone 2/16/1987
    Ryan O'Rourke 4/30/1988
    Byungho Park 7/10/1986
    Glen Perkins 3/2/83
    Trevor Plouffe 6/15/1986
    Ryan Pressly 12/15/1988
    Ervin Santana 12/12/1982
    Hector Santiago 12/16/1987
    Logan Schafer 9/8/1986
    Kurt Suzuki 10/4/1983
    Alex Wimmers 11/1/1988
     
    In between:
     
    James Beresford 1/19/1989
    Juan Centeno 11/16/1989
    Pat Dean 5/25/1989
    Eduardo Escobar 1/5/1989
    Robbie Grossman 9/16/1989
    Trevor May 9/23/1989
    Michael Tonkin 11/19/1989
     
     
    Let's look at the in between and see who could potentially offer value:
     
    James Beresford 1/19/1989
    Juan Centeno 11/16/1989
    Pat Dean 5/25/1989
    Eduardo Escobar 1/5/1989
    Robbie Grossman 9/16/1989
    Trevor May 9/23/1989
    Michael Tonkin 11/19/1989
     
    Centeno, Escobar, and May can provide some value. Centeno who might be the weakest of the 3, has options, so he does not preclude the team . So they stay. Beresford, Dean, Grossman, and Tonkin are designated for assignment.
     
    New Keeper list (with positions) :
     
    Jose Berrios 5/27/1994 (SP)
    Byron Buxton 12/18/1993 (CF)
    Juan Centeno 11/16/1989 ©
    J.T. Chargois 12/3/1990 (RP)
    Tyler Duffey 12/27/1990 (RP)
    Eduardo Escobar 1/5/1989 (IF)
    Max Kepler 2/10/1993 (RF)
    Yorman Landa 6/11/1994 (RP)
    Pat Light 3/29/1991 (RP)
    Trevor May 9/23/1989 (SP)
    Adalberto Mejia 6/20/1993 (SP)
    Mason Melotakis 6/28/1991 (RP)
    John Ryan Murphy 5/13/1991 ©
    Jorge Polanco 7/5/1993 (SS)
    Taylor Rogers 12/17/1990 (RP)
    Eddie Rosario 9/28/1991 (LF)
    Randy Rosario 5/18/1994 (RP)
    Miguel Sano 5/11/1993 (3B)
    Kennys Vargas 8/1/1990 (1B)
    Adam Walker 10/18/1991 (OF/DH)
     
    Up to 20 total and most positions of the diamond taken care off.
     
    Let's have a close look to the ones who are too old to belong to a rebuilding team, look into their contract situation, and add potential value to a trade partner:
     
    Andrew Albers 10/6/1985 - no value
    Buddy Boshers 5/9/1988 - maybe some value, one option left
    Brian Dozier 5/15/1987 - signed until 2018, $15M owed, career season, strong value
    Kyle Gibson 10/23/1987 - arbitration eligible, some value
    Phil Hughes 6/24/1986 - signed until 2019, $39.6M owed, major surgery
    Brandon Kintzler 8/1/1984 - arbitration eligible, some value
    Joe Mauer 4/19/1983 - signed until 2018, $46M owed, declining
    Tommy Milone 2/16/1987 - abitration eligible, no value
    Ryan O'Rourke 4/30/1988 - no value
    Byungho Park 7/10/1986 - signed until 2019, $9.3M owed, major investment
    Glen Perkins 3/2/1983 - signed until 2017, $7.2M owed
    Trevor Plouffe 6/15/1986 - arbitration eligible, some value
    Ryan Pressly 12/15/1988 - arbitration eligible, some value
    Ervin Santana 12/12/1982 - signed until 2018 + option, $28M owed, close to career season, strong value
    Hector Santiago 12/16/1987 - arbitration eligible, medium value
    Logan Schafer 9/8/1986 - no value
    Kurt Suzuki 10/4/1983 - free agent
    Alex Wimmers 11/1/1988 - no value
     
    The ones who do not have value, should go. Suzuki will depart as a free agent, Albers, O'Rourke, Schafer, and Wimmers are designated for assignment, Milone is not offered arbitration. The list trims to:
     
     
    Buddy Boshers 5/9/1988 - maybe some value, one option left
    Brian Dozier 5/15/1987 - signed until 2018, $15M owed, career season, strong value
    Kyle Gibson 10/23/1987 - arbitration eligible, some value
    Phil Hughes 6/24/1986 - signed until 2019, $39.6M owed, major surgery
    Brandon Kintzler 8/1/1984 - arbitration eligible, some value
    Joe Mauer 4/19/1983 - signed until 2018, $46M owed, declining
    Byungho Park 7/10/1986 - signed until 2019, $9.3M owed, major investment
    Glen Perkins 3/2/1983 - signed until 2017, $7.2M owed, might not pitch again
    Trevor Plouffe 6/15/1986 - arbitration eligible, some value
    Ryan Pressly 12/15/1988 - arbitration eligible, some value
    Ervin Santana 12/12/1982 - signed until 2018 + option, $28M owed, close to career season, strong value
    Hector Santiago 12/16/1987 - arbitration eligible, medium value
     
    The 3 players with most value, Ervin Santana, Brian Dozier, and Hector Santiago should be traded, and the Twins will receive value back, as there will be takers. The remaining players are in two lists: the arbitration-eligible, and team control players with some value, and the under contract with major questionmarks. The players in those 2 lists represent 2 opposite sides of the same coin
     
    The arbitration, and team control eligible players:
     
    Buddy Boshers 5/9/1988 - maybe some value, one option left
    Kyle Gibson 10/23/1987 - arbitration eligible, some value
    Brandon Kintzler 8/1/1984 - arbitration eligible, some value
    Trevor Plouffe 6/15/1986 - arbitration eligible, some value
    Ryan Pressly 12/15/1988 - arbitration eligible, some value
     
    The Twins should try to trade these players and package them with Dozier, Santana, and Santiago to receive better value. If no team values them enough to trade for them, the Twins should let them go. So trade or non-tendering (of DFA in Bosher's situation,) all 5 will not be Twins in 2017.
     
    Phil Hughes 6/24/1986 - signed until 2019, $39.6M owed, major surgery
    Joe Mauer 4/19/1983 - signed until 2018, $46M owed, declining
    Byungho Park 7/10/1986 - signed until 2019, $9.3M owed,+ $13M investment
    Glen Perkins 3/2/1983 - signed until 2017, $7.2M owed, might not pitch again
     
    The Twins are stuck with these 4 players. These contracts and their injury or aging situations make them undesirable for any team. The best case scenario for the Twins is that they all return healthy in 2017, start the season with the team and build enough value to be tradeable during the season. Perkins will likely not be ready and the Twins have the luxury to add him to the 60-day DL in the beginning of the reason and bring him back slowly if healthy though a series of minor league rehabs, so there is some flexibility there.
     
    So from today's 40-man roster, only the following 24 players (and potentially 23 effectively with a Perkins to the 60-day DL (*) senario) will be there this off-season:
     
    Jose Berrios 5/27/1994 (SP)
    Byron Buxton 12/18/1993 (CF)
    Juan Centeno 11/16/1989 ©
    J.T. Chargois 12/3/1990 (RP)
    Tyler Duffey 12/27/1990 (RP)
    Phil Hughes 6/24/1986 (SP)
    Eduardo Escobar 1/5/1989 (IF)
    Max Kepler 2/10/1993 (RF)
    Yorman Landa 6/11/1994 (RP)
    Pat Light 3/29/1991 (RP)
    Joe Mauer 4/19/1983 (1B/DH)
    Trevor May 9/23/1989 (SP)
    Adalberto Mejia 6/20/1993 (SP)
    Mason Melotakis 6/28/1991 (RP)
    John Ryan Murphy 5/13/1991 ©
    Byungho Park 7/10/1986 (1B/DH)
    Glen Perkins 3/2/1983 (RP) (*)
    Jorge Polanco 7/5/1993 (SS)
    Taylor Rogers 12/17/1990 (RP)
    Eddie Rosario 9/28/1991 (LF)
    Randy Rosario 5/18/1994 (RP)
    Miguel Sano 5/11/1993 (3B)
    Kennys Vargas 8/1/1990 (1B/DH)
    Adam Walker 10/18/1991 (OF/DH)
     
    This would allow the Twins 16 spots to add several of their prospects for 2017 auditions as well as a good flexibility to include several trade returns. This list is light on starting pitchers , but the assumption is that they will be targeted in trades and that their number will get supplemented by one or more of the existing prospects in the system. One note. It is obvious that the Twins are heavy on the DH position. Park, Mauer, and Vargas can rotate in the first base and DH role, with the ability to have either both lefties or righties, with Vargas being an switch hitter, in a platoon situation, depending on opposing pitchers. Which means that Adam Walker should be available in a trade at this point.
     
    In the next article of this series will look at who of the existing prospects should move in the 40-man roster to either protect them from the draft or to supplement the MLB-level talent.
  4. Like
    Thrylos got a reaction from Kevin for a blog entry, The Twins 40-man roster Part 2: Who should be protected from the Rule 5 Draft   
    Originally published at The Tenth Inning Stretch
    ---
     
    The first segment of this series was dedicated to cleaning up the Twins' existing 40-man roster, assuming that the new management will do the right thing and go for a full rebuild. This second segment, further adjusts the roster by adding players to protect from the draft, and maybe subtracting some of the players on the derived roster. As a bonus, I will be listing additional Twins minor leaguers who do not need to be protected for the Rule 5 draft, but might merit consideration for a spot on the roster. This list will give a good overview of the high level minor league talent available currently in the Twins' organization. I will not proposed to add anyone who does not need to be added on the 40-man roster right now, eg. Steven Gonsalves, Jake Reed etc, but instead, the Twins should invite them as non-roster players to the 2017 Spring Training. If they win a job there, they should merit a roster spot, but the Twins would need much roster flexibility this off-season.
     
    Here is the 24 man roster, after the clean up. Noted that if Perkins is moved to the 60-day disabled list, the roster would stand at 23, allowing up to 17 openings:
     
    Jose Berrios 5/27/1994 (RHSP)
    Byron Buxton 12/18/1993 (CF)
    Juan Centeno 11/16/1989 ©
    J.T. Chargois 12/3/1990 (RHRP)
    Tyler Duffey 12/27/1990 (RHRP)
    Phil Hughes 6/24/1986 (RHSP)
    Eduardo Escobar 1/5/1989 (IF)
    Max Kepler 2/10/1993 (RF)
    Yorman Landa 6/11/1994 (RHRP)
    Pat Light 3/29/1991 (RHRP)
    Joe Mauer 4/19/1983 (1B/DH)
    Trevor May 9/23/1989 (RHSP)
    Adalberto Mejia 6/20/1993 (LHSP)
    Mason Melotakis 6/28/1991 (LHRP)
    John Ryan Murphy 5/13/1991 ©
    Byungho Park 7/10/1986 (1B/DH)
    Glen Perkins 3/2/1983 (LHRP) (*)
    Jorge Polanco 7/5/1993 (SS)
    Taylor Rogers 12/17/1990 (LHRP)
    Eddie Rosario 9/28/1991 (LF)
    Randy Rosario 5/18/1994 (LHRP)
    Miguel Sano 5/11/1993 (3B)
    Kennys Vargas 8/1/1990 (1B/DH)
    Adam Walker 10/18/1991 (OF/DH)
     
    Clearly the weakest lings on the roster are the two borderline age-wise position players, Catcher Juan Centeno, and utility infielder Eduardo Escobar. In addition, Pat Light is the weakest relief pitcher, so borderline players would be compared to these three because they will be fighting for their spots.
     
    Here are the Rule 5 Draft-eligible Position players, by position:
     
    Catchers:
     
    Kevin Garcia, 9/17/1992, A/A+, 2016: .249/.302/.323, career: .252/.321/.315
    Mitch Garver, 1/1/1991, AAA/AA, 2016: .270/.342/.422, career: .267/.359/.406 (*)
    Rainis Silva, 3/20/1996 A, 2016: .230/.297/.254, career: .238/.295/.293
    Stuart Turner, 12/27/1991, AA, 2016: .239/.322/.363, career: .241/.325/.352
     
    Clearly Mitch Garver should be on the roster, since he will be fighting for a starting job in 2017. Rainis Silva's glove is the best in the organization at the Catcher position right now, but his bat stinks, and unless that improves (and there is a lot of time, he just turned 20,) there is no risk of losing him. I do not see Kevin Garcia being selected. Whether adding Stuart Turner on the roster, is a toss-up. His bat does not play in the majors, but his glove might. Which brings the question: who should be on the roster, Turner or Centeno? I think that Centeno's lefty bat that was not unrespectable in the majors wins here, but it is a close call. It might be an academic question because the Twins are in dire need of a young good catcher, and if they obtain him this off-season will take the spot now reserved for Centeno.
     
    Additions: Garver
     
    Infielders:
     
    Niko Goodrum, 2/28/1992, A+/AA, 2016: .275/.352/.464, career: .247/.339/.368
    Levi Michael 2/9/1991, AA, 2016: .215/.293/.291, career: .250/.341/.343
    Amaurys Minier, 1/20/1996, RK+, 2016: .222/.318/.449, career: .233/.321/.422
    Rafael Valera, 8/25/1994, A, 2016: .261/.366/.409, career: .260/.380/.333
    Engelb Vielma, 6/22/1994, A+/AA, 2016: .265/.344/.310, career: .264/.327/.309
    Ryan Walker, 3/26/1992, A+/AA, 2016: .271/.347/.345, career: .262/.324/.321
     
    Levi Michael had a terrible season after two strong ones, and I am not sure whether he is even in the Twins' plans right now that the administration that picked him in the first round is extinct. I cannot see Valera or Walker get selected, I think that Niko's Goodrum's career year and positional versatility (can play both positions on the left side of the infield, and can sub for both Sano and Polanco, plus Centerfield) as well as Engelb Vielma's standout glove and improved to respectability bat, will entice teams and could help the Twins in the future. As a matter of fact, either would be better as a utility player for the 2017 Twins than Eduardo Escobar. Both in, Escobar traded/non-tendered. The last player in this list is a wild card. Amaurys Minier has had superstar potential but been plagued by injuries and inconsistencies. Has not played above Elizabethton, but I am so afraid that someone could pull a Johan Santana on the Twins and pick him. Got to protect him for at least another year.
     
    Additions: Goodrum, Minier, Vielma
    Subtractions: Escobar
     
    Outfielders:
     
    Edgar Corcino 6/7/1992, AA/A+ 2016: .273/.337/.420, career: .245/.316/.368
    JJ Fernandez, 3/30/1994, A, 2016: .225/.293/.363, career: .239/.293/.363
    Zach Granite, 9/17/1992, AA, 2016: .295/.347/.382 (56/70 SB), career: .282/.349/.354 (*)
    Max Murphy, 11/17/1992, A/A+, 2016: .236/.289/.358, career: .252/.329/.411
    Travis Harrison, 10/17/1992, AA, 2016: .230/.338/.339, career: .254/.360/.380
    Daniel Palka, 10/28/1991, AA/AAA, 2016: .254/.327/.521, career: .268/.346/.509 (*)
     
    I think that what I wrote previously regardless Levi Michael, applies to Travis Harrison as well. This might be his last chance in the Twins' organization. Fernandez and Murphy are not close to being MLB-ready or selected in the draft. Corcino is a better player than both, but still ways away. This leaves the player whom the Twins named minor league player of the year, Zach Granite, and the player they should had named, Daniel Palka. They both should be protected and added on the 40-man roster. Palka will fight (or push back to second base) Eduardo Rosario for a corner outfielder job and Zach Granite and his 56 stolen bases might make the best 4th outfielder, pinch runner combination the Twins have had for years.
     
    Additions: Granite, Palka
     
    Notable non-Rule 5 Draft-eligible at A+ and above position players:
     
    Nick Gordon (SS) 10/24/1995, A+, 2016: .291/.335/.386, career: .285/.335/.371
    LaMonte Wade (OF) 1/1/1994, A/A+, 2016: .293/.402/.438, career: .297/.409/.459
     
    Both should be invited to the 2017 Spring Training and given the ability to win an MLB job, but they should not be added on the roster unless they need to.
     
    Rule 5 Draft-eligible Pitchers:
     
    Starters:
     
    Ryan Eades ®, 12/15/1991, AA, 2016: 4.61 ERA, 1.376 WHIP, 7.2 K/9 career: 4.33 ERA, 1.379 WHIP, 6.7 K/9
    Felix Jorge.® 1/2/1994, A+/AA, 2016: 2.69 ERA, 1.088 WHIP, 5.9 K/9 career: 3.17 ERA, 1.164 WHIP, 7.4 K/9
    Aaron Slegers, ® 9/4/1992, AA, 2016: 3.41 ERA, 1.259 WHIP, 6.4 K/9 career: 3.54 ERA, 1.178 WHIP, 6.5 K/9
    Fernando Romero, ® 12/24/1994, A/A+, 2016: 2.09 ERA, 0.897 WHIP, 9.0 K/9 career: 2.37 ERA, 1.032 WHIP, 8.8 K/9
    Lewis Thorpe, (L), 11/23/1995. lost 2015 and 2016 with Tommy John surgery & other ailments. 2012-2014: 2.96 ERA, 1.176 WHIP, 11.2 K/9
    Jason Wheeler (L), 10/27/1990, AAA/AA, 2016: 3.30 ERA, 1.163 WHIP, 7.2 K/9 career: 3.66 ERA, 1.325 WHIP, 6.4 K/9
     
    Ryan Eades had a below average season as a starter and I expect him to make the transition to the pen this season, which will be his best opportunity to get to the majors. Felix Jorge and Fernando Romero are just too good not to add. Both, especially Romero, have outside chances of wining a position in the Twins' rotation this spring. They are both no-brainer additions. Lewis Thorpe was a phenomenal prospect who lost 2 seasons in a row. Is he back? Only the Twins know. I just do not see a chance for anyone to select him, but if the Twins think there is, I can see him add him on the roster. I won't. Slegers is an intriguing possibility: He has been above average his career with above average stuff, but has shown nothing eye opening, in both raw stuff and results. Very intriguing conversion to a reliever who might get a mid to high 90s fastball from this frame. Should the Twins add him on the roster and do it? In the expense of Pat Light or any of the other relievers who need protection? I don't think so. Regardless whether he is selected or not, he should be in a bullpen next season. This leaves us to Jason Wheeler whom the Twins protected in 2015, unprotected in 2016, and snubbed him for a call up, in a year he was pitching well in both AA and AAA, for the likes of Anrew Albers. Terrible decision, but I hope that the change in the administration does the right thing and protects him, if for not other reason, because he is lefty and successful and he is second, after Adalberto Mejia, in the Twins LHSP depth chart. This might change during the off-season if the Twins acquire a LHSP or two better than Mejia, and they should target that. But until then, Wheeler is in, at least for 2017 to show what he can do.
     
    Additions: Jorge, Romero, Wheeler
     
    Relievers:
     
    Luke Bard ® 11/13/1990, A+/AA, 2016: 3.74 ERA, 1.400 WHIP, 7.9 K/9 career: 3.23 ERA, 1.310 WHIP, 7.9 K/9
    DJ Baxendale ®, 12/8/1990, As a RP only: AAA 2016: 1.29 ERA, 1.029 WHIP, 10.3 K/9
    Omar Bencomo ® 2/10/1989, AA/AAA, 2016: 3.74 ERA, 1.352 WHIP, 6.8 K/9, career: 3.77 ERA, 1.271 WHIP, 6.7 K/9
    Cameron Booser (L), 5/4/1992, A/A+, 2016: 8.53 ERA, 2.013 WHIP, 12.1 K/9, career: 4.32 ERA, 1.571 WHIP, 12.1 K/9
    Alan Busenitz ® 8/22/1990, AA/AAA, 2016: 3.54 ERA, 1.262 WHIP, 8.1 K/9 career: 3.55 ERA, 1.320 WHIP, 7.6 K/9 (might protect him for political reasons - he came in the Meyer/Nolasco trade, but there are better players)
    C.K. Irby, ®, 5/6/1992, A, 2016: 2.42 ERA, 1.119 WHIP, 10.5 K/9 career: 3.56 ERA, 1.264 WHIP, 11.5 K/9
    Zack Jones ®, 12/4/1990, AA/AAA, 2016: 3.47 ERA, 1.294 WHIP, 12.4 K/9 career: 2.97 ERA, 1.218 WHIP, 12.7 K/9
    Brandon Peterson, ®, 9/23/1991, A+/AA, 2016: 3.30 ERA, 1.150 WHIP, 11.2 K/9 career: 2.41 ERA, 1.109 WHIP, 12.1 K/9
    Brian Gilbert, ®, 8/9/1992, A+, 2016: 5.53 ERA, 2.024 WHIP, 6.2 K/9, career: 3.66 ERA, 1.439 WHIP, 6.6 K/9
    Williams Ramirez, ®, 8/8/1992, A, 2016: 2.62 ERA, 1.055 WHIP, 10.8 K/9, career: 1.97 ERA, 1.038 WHIP, 10.1 K/9
    Todd Van Steensel ®, 1/14/1991, A+/AA, 2016: 3.88 ERA, 1.324 WHIP, 8.2 K/9, career: 3.42 ERA, 1.291 WHIP, 9.7 K/9
     
    This is a long list of 11 relievers, with only one of them (Booser) a lefty. Booser had a disappointing season in both High A and A and will not be selected. The same is true for Brian Gilbert. Bencomo is a last option type of player, and will not be selected. Van Steensel's season was not strong enough to get consideration. C.K. Irby's was, however it was not at a high enough level. The same for Williams Ramirez, but watch out if these two repeat their results in high A and/or AA in 2017. Which brings us to Luke Bard, the Twins' former 1st round pick, who is about to turn 26, and had an average season, but has not been the same after losing 2014 recovering from shoulder surgery. I think that this will be his last chance to prove that he belongs in the prospect conversation and I will not be surprised if it is not in the Twins' organization. Alan Busenitz is an interesting case. He pitched in AA and AAA with average results, that reflect the rest of his minor league career, but the Twins might protect him for political reasons, since he was acquired in the Alex Meyer, Ricky Nolasco trade that also brought Hector Santiago to the Twins. Maybe the new administration will let the past go and would not protect him. I wouldn't. However, I would protect the most successful reliever in the Twins' minor league system, DJ Baxendale, who after transitioning to that role for Rochester upon his promotion from Chatanooga excelled. This leaves us two pitchers who might depart via the draft, and one last off-season: Zach Jones and Brandon Peterson. Got to add Pat Light to the conversation and it is two out of three. I'd picke Jones and Light, risking Peterson's departure, mainly because he has played in more junior levels (only 16 games in AA) and might deemed less ready. But it is a risk.
     
    Additions: Baxendale, Jones.
     
    Notable non-Rule 5 Draft-eligible at A+ and above:
     
    Starters:
     
    Stephen Gonsalves (L) 7/8/1994 A+/AA, 2016: 2.06 ERA, 1.021 WHIP, 10.0 K/9 career: 2.13 ERA, 1.072 WHIP, 9.7 K/9
    Tyler Jay (L) 4/19/1994 A+/AA, 2016: 3.33 ERA, 1.231 WHIP, 8.3 K/9 career: 3.44 ERA, 1.265 WHIP, 8.7 K/9
    Kohl Stewart ®, 10/7/1994, A+/AA, 2016: 2.88 ERA, 1.343 WHIP, 5.7 K/9 career: 2.84 ERA, 1.284 WHIP, 5.9 K/9
     
    Relievers:
     
    Nick Burdi ®, 1/19/1993, AA, 2016: shut down after 3 games, career: 3.72 ERA, 1.322 WHIP, 12.6 K/9
    Trevor Hildenberger ®, 12/15/1990, AA/A+, 2016: 0.75 ERA, 0.792 WHIP, 9.9 K/9 career: 1.47 ERA, 0.823 WHIP, 10.5 K/9
    Jake Reed ®, 9/29/1992, AAA/AA, 2016: 3.57 ERA, 1.175 WHIP, 9.2 K/9 career: 3.47 ERA, 1.130 WHIP, 8.8 K/9
    Michael Theophanopoulos (L), 8/5/1992, A/A+, 2016: 2.20 ERA, 1.163 WHIP, 11.6 K/9 career: 3.29 ERA, 1.351 WHIP, 10.5 K/9
     
    As with the position players, all of the above, in addition to several Rule 5-eligible players who will remain with the Twins but not added to the roster, and hopefully several new young good players should be invited to the Twins 2017 Spring Training.
     
    This leaves the modified Twins 40-man roster with 34 (33 (*) if Perkins is on the 60-day DL) spots and 6 (or 7) openings, which are enough for the Twins to be flexible in targeting acquisitions in trades and potentially shopping the Rule 5 draft and the waiver wire (and a reminder that they have the right of first refusal, because of the worst record in the majors, for both.) Here is the modified roster:
     
    DJ Baxendale 12/8/1990 (RHRP)
    Jose Berrios 5/27/1994 (RHSP)
    Byron Buxton 12/18/1993 (CF)
    Juan Centeno 11/16/1989 ©
    J.T. Chargois 12/3/1990 (RHRP)
    Tyler Duffey 12/27/1990 (RHRP)
    Mitch Garver, 1/1/1991 ©
    Zach Granite, 9/17/1992 (OF)
    Phil Hughes 6/24/1986 (RHSP)
    Zack Jones 12/4/1990 (RHRP)
    Felix Jorge 1/2/1994 (RHSP)
    Niko Goodrum, 2/28/1992 (SS/3B/CF)
    Max Kepler 2/10/1993 (RF)
    Yorman Landa 6/11/1994 (RHRP)
    Pat Light 3/29/1991 (RHRP)
    Joe Mauer 4/19/1983 (1B/DH)
    Trevor May 9/23/1989 (RHSP)
    Adalberto Mejia 6/20/1993 (LHSP)
    Mason Melotakis 6/28/1991 (LHRP)
    Amaurys Minier, 1/20/1996 (1B/OF)
    John Ryan Murphy 5/13/1991 ©
    Daniel Palka, 10/28/1991 (OF)
    Byungho Park 7/10/1986 (1B/DH)
    Glen Perkins 3/2/1983 (LHRP) (*)
    Jorge Polanco 7/5/1993 (SS)
    Taylor Rogers 12/17/1990 (LHRP)
    Fernando Romero 12/24/1994(RHSP)
    Eddie Rosario 9/28/1991 (LF)
    Randy Rosario 5/18/1994 (LHRP)
    Miguel Sano 5/11/1993 (3B)
    Kennys Vargas 8/1/1990 (1B/DH)
    Engelb Vielma, 6/22/1994 (SS)
    Adam Walker 10/18/1991 (OF/DH)
    Jason Wheeler 10/27/1990 (LHSP)
     
     
    Next installment will be a critical view of the roster, assessing weaknesses and looking for potential positions that the Twins should target this off-season.
  5. Like
    Thrylos got a reaction from HitInAPinch for a blog entry, The Twins 40-man roster Part 1: Who should stay and who should go   
    After a historically bad season that resulted in the worst record of the Franchise in its current location, Twins' about to be minted (as soon as Cleveland's season is over) new chief baseball officer, Derek Falvey, will have his hands full in turning this team around. I hope that he has enough flexibility to do a true rebuild. And a true rebuild is to find enough young talented players that will reach their primes together, and then supplemented by star veterans to close holes as necessary, will compete for a long time.
     
    Looking at the Twins' young talent and how their 40-man roster for 2017 should be built, young is an operating word. Here is the current Twins' 40-man roster by age groups: a. Players who will be 26 and younger on 1/1/2017 who should be part of the rebuilt; b. players who will be 28 or older who really do not belong in a rebuilding team, since they will be past their primes when the new Twins' core will reach their primes, and; c. players who are in-between. The 27 year olds:
     
    The listing is alphabetical with birthdays
     
    Andrew Albers 10/6/1985
    James Beresford 1/19/1989
    Jose Berrios 5/27/1994
    Buddy Boshers 5/9/1988
    Byron Buxton 12/18/1993
    Juan Centeno 11/16/1989
    J.T. Chargois 12/3/1990
    Pat Dean 5/25/1989
    Brian Dozier 5/15/1987
    Tyler Duffey 12/27/1990
    Eduardo Escobar 1/5/1989
    Kyle Gibson 10/23/1987
    Robbie Grossman 9/16/1989
    Phil Hughes 6/24/1986 (60-day DL)
    Max Kepler 2/10/1993
    Brandon Kintzler 8/1/1984
    Yorman Landa 6/11/1994
    Pat Light 3/29/1991
    Joe Mauer 4/19/1983
    Trevor May 9/23/1989
    Adalberto Mejia 6/20/1993
    Mason Melotakis 6/28/1991
    Tommy Milone 2/16/1987
    John Ryan Murphy 5/13/1991
    Ryan O'Rourke 4/30/1988
    Byungho Park 7/10/1986
    Glen Perkins 3/2/1983 (60-day DL)
    Trevor Plouffe 6/15/1986
    Ryan Pressly 12/15/1988
    Jorge Polanco 7/5/1993
    Taylor Rogers 12/17/1990
    Eddie Rosario 9/28/1991
    Randy Rosario 5/18/1994
    Ervin Santana 12/12/1982
    Hector Santiago 12/16/1987
    Miguel Sano 5/11/1993
    Logan Schafer 9/8/1986
    Kurt Suzuki 10/4/1983
    Michael Tonkin 11/19/1989
    Kennys Vargas 8/1/1990
    Adam Walker 10/18/1991
    Alex Wimmers 11/1/1988
     
     
    These 42 players sorted in the 3 age groups:
     
    Young enough:
     
    Jose Berrios 5/27/1994
    Byron Buxton 12/18/1993
    J.T. Chargois 12/3/1990
    Tyler Duffey 12/27/1990
    Max Kepler 2/10/1993
    Yorman Landa 6/11/1994
    Pat Light 3/29/1991
    Adalberto Mejia 6/20/1993
    Mason Melotakis 6/28/1991
    John Ryan Murphy 5/13/1991
    Jorge Polanco 7/5/1993
    Taylor Rogers 12/17/1990
    Eddie Rosario 9/28/1991
    Randy Rosario 5/18/1994
    Miguel Sano 5/11/1993
    Kennys Vargas 8/1/1990
    Adam Walker 10/18/1991
     
    Too old:
     
    Andrew Albers 10/6/1985
    Buddy Boshers 5/9/1988
    Brian Dozier 5/15/1987
    Kyle Gibson 10/23/1987
    Phil Hughes 6/24/86
    Brandon Kintzler 8/1/1984
    Joe Mauer 4/19/1983
    Tommy Milone 2/16/1987
    Ryan O'Rourke 4/30/1988
    Byungho Park 7/10/1986
    Glen Perkins 3/2/83
    Trevor Plouffe 6/15/1986
    Ryan Pressly 12/15/1988
    Ervin Santana 12/12/1982
    Hector Santiago 12/16/1987
    Logan Schafer 9/8/1986
    Kurt Suzuki 10/4/1983
    Alex Wimmers 11/1/1988
     
    In between:
     
    James Beresford 1/19/1989
    Juan Centeno 11/16/1989
    Pat Dean 5/25/1989
    Eduardo Escobar 1/5/1989
    Robbie Grossman 9/16/1989
    Trevor May 9/23/1989
    Michael Tonkin 11/19/1989
     
     
    Let's look at the in between and see who could potentially offer value:
     
    James Beresford 1/19/1989
    Juan Centeno 11/16/1989
    Pat Dean 5/25/1989
    Eduardo Escobar 1/5/1989
    Robbie Grossman 9/16/1989
    Trevor May 9/23/1989
    Michael Tonkin 11/19/1989
     
    Centeno, Escobar, and May can provide some value. Centeno who might be the weakest of the 3, has options, so he does not preclude the team . So they stay. Beresford, Dean, Grossman, and Tonkin are designated for assignment.
     
    New Keeper list (with positions) :
     
    Jose Berrios 5/27/1994 (SP)
    Byron Buxton 12/18/1993 (CF)
    Juan Centeno 11/16/1989 ©
    J.T. Chargois 12/3/1990 (RP)
    Tyler Duffey 12/27/1990 (RP)
    Eduardo Escobar 1/5/1989 (IF)
    Max Kepler 2/10/1993 (RF)
    Yorman Landa 6/11/1994 (RP)
    Pat Light 3/29/1991 (RP)
    Trevor May 9/23/1989 (SP)
    Adalberto Mejia 6/20/1993 (SP)
    Mason Melotakis 6/28/1991 (RP)
    John Ryan Murphy 5/13/1991 ©
    Jorge Polanco 7/5/1993 (SS)
    Taylor Rogers 12/17/1990 (RP)
    Eddie Rosario 9/28/1991 (LF)
    Randy Rosario 5/18/1994 (RP)
    Miguel Sano 5/11/1993 (3B)
    Kennys Vargas 8/1/1990 (1B)
    Adam Walker 10/18/1991 (OF/DH)
     
    Up to 20 total and most positions of the diamond taken care off.
     
    Let's have a close look to the ones who are too old to belong to a rebuilding team, look into their contract situation, and add potential value to a trade partner:
     
    Andrew Albers 10/6/1985 - no value
    Buddy Boshers 5/9/1988 - maybe some value, one option left
    Brian Dozier 5/15/1987 - signed until 2018, $15M owed, career season, strong value
    Kyle Gibson 10/23/1987 - arbitration eligible, some value
    Phil Hughes 6/24/1986 - signed until 2019, $39.6M owed, major surgery
    Brandon Kintzler 8/1/1984 - arbitration eligible, some value
    Joe Mauer 4/19/1983 - signed until 2018, $46M owed, declining
    Tommy Milone 2/16/1987 - abitration eligible, no value
    Ryan O'Rourke 4/30/1988 - no value
    Byungho Park 7/10/1986 - signed until 2019, $9.3M owed, major investment
    Glen Perkins 3/2/1983 - signed until 2017, $7.2M owed
    Trevor Plouffe 6/15/1986 - arbitration eligible, some value
    Ryan Pressly 12/15/1988 - arbitration eligible, some value
    Ervin Santana 12/12/1982 - signed until 2018 + option, $28M owed, close to career season, strong value
    Hector Santiago 12/16/1987 - arbitration eligible, medium value
    Logan Schafer 9/8/1986 - no value
    Kurt Suzuki 10/4/1983 - free agent
    Alex Wimmers 11/1/1988 - no value
     
    The ones who do not have value, should go. Suzuki will depart as a free agent, Albers, O'Rourke, Schafer, and Wimmers are designated for assignment, Milone is not offered arbitration. The list trims to:
     
     
    Buddy Boshers 5/9/1988 - maybe some value, one option left
    Brian Dozier 5/15/1987 - signed until 2018, $15M owed, career season, strong value
    Kyle Gibson 10/23/1987 - arbitration eligible, some value
    Phil Hughes 6/24/1986 - signed until 2019, $39.6M owed, major surgery
    Brandon Kintzler 8/1/1984 - arbitration eligible, some value
    Joe Mauer 4/19/1983 - signed until 2018, $46M owed, declining
    Byungho Park 7/10/1986 - signed until 2019, $9.3M owed, major investment
    Glen Perkins 3/2/1983 - signed until 2017, $7.2M owed, might not pitch again
    Trevor Plouffe 6/15/1986 - arbitration eligible, some value
    Ryan Pressly 12/15/1988 - arbitration eligible, some value
    Ervin Santana 12/12/1982 - signed until 2018 + option, $28M owed, close to career season, strong value
    Hector Santiago 12/16/1987 - arbitration eligible, medium value
     
    The 3 players with most value, Ervin Santana, Brian Dozier, and Hector Santiago should be traded, and the Twins will receive value back, as there will be takers. The remaining players are in two lists: the arbitration-eligible, and team control players with some value, and the under contract with major questionmarks. The players in those 2 lists represent 2 opposite sides of the same coin
     
    The arbitration, and team control eligible players:
     
    Buddy Boshers 5/9/1988 - maybe some value, one option left
    Kyle Gibson 10/23/1987 - arbitration eligible, some value
    Brandon Kintzler 8/1/1984 - arbitration eligible, some value
    Trevor Plouffe 6/15/1986 - arbitration eligible, some value
    Ryan Pressly 12/15/1988 - arbitration eligible, some value
     
    The Twins should try to trade these players and package them with Dozier, Santana, and Santiago to receive better value. If no team values them enough to trade for them, the Twins should let them go. So trade or non-tendering (of DFA in Bosher's situation,) all 5 will not be Twins in 2017.
     
    Phil Hughes 6/24/1986 - signed until 2019, $39.6M owed, major surgery
    Joe Mauer 4/19/1983 - signed until 2018, $46M owed, declining
    Byungho Park 7/10/1986 - signed until 2019, $9.3M owed,+ $13M investment
    Glen Perkins 3/2/1983 - signed until 2017, $7.2M owed, might not pitch again
     
    The Twins are stuck with these 4 players. These contracts and their injury or aging situations make them undesirable for any team. The best case scenario for the Twins is that they all return healthy in 2017, start the season with the team and build enough value to be tradeable during the season. Perkins will likely not be ready and the Twins have the luxury to add him to the 60-day DL in the beginning of the reason and bring him back slowly if healthy though a series of minor league rehabs, so there is some flexibility there.
     
    So from today's 40-man roster, only the following 24 players (and potentially 23 effectively with a Perkins to the 60-day DL (*) senario) will be there this off-season:
     
    Jose Berrios 5/27/1994 (SP)
    Byron Buxton 12/18/1993 (CF)
    Juan Centeno 11/16/1989 ©
    J.T. Chargois 12/3/1990 (RP)
    Tyler Duffey 12/27/1990 (RP)
    Phil Hughes 6/24/1986 (SP)
    Eduardo Escobar 1/5/1989 (IF)
    Max Kepler 2/10/1993 (RF)
    Yorman Landa 6/11/1994 (RP)
    Pat Light 3/29/1991 (RP)
    Joe Mauer 4/19/1983 (1B/DH)
    Trevor May 9/23/1989 (SP)
    Adalberto Mejia 6/20/1993 (SP)
    Mason Melotakis 6/28/1991 (RP)
    John Ryan Murphy 5/13/1991 ©
    Byungho Park 7/10/1986 (1B/DH)
    Glen Perkins 3/2/1983 (RP) (*)
    Jorge Polanco 7/5/1993 (SS)
    Taylor Rogers 12/17/1990 (RP)
    Eddie Rosario 9/28/1991 (LF)
    Randy Rosario 5/18/1994 (RP)
    Miguel Sano 5/11/1993 (3B)
    Kennys Vargas 8/1/1990 (1B/DH)
    Adam Walker 10/18/1991 (OF/DH)
     
    This would allow the Twins 16 spots to add several of their prospects for 2017 auditions as well as a good flexibility to include several trade returns. This list is light on starting pitchers , but the assumption is that they will be targeted in trades and that their number will get supplemented by one or more of the existing prospects in the system. One note. It is obvious that the Twins are heavy on the DH position. Park, Mauer, and Vargas can rotate in the first base and DH role, with the ability to have either both lefties or righties, with Vargas being an switch hitter, in a platoon situation, depending on opposing pitchers. Which means that Adam Walker should be available in a trade at this point.
     
    In the next article of this series will look at who of the existing prospects should move in the 40-man roster to either protect them from the draft or to supplement the MLB-level talent.
  6. Like
    Thrylos reacted to Squirrel for a blog entry, Posting styles discussing our frustrations about the Twins   
    In light of some posting styles we have been seeing lately on TD, I thought I'd do some venting of my own ... in a blog. The thread that broke this camel's back was this thread, 'It is time to end the insanity.' I've been meaning to address this for a while now, and have here and there in threads when posts become nothing more than venting general frustrations rather than addressing the topic at hand; and redundant threads get started on this same topic of frustration that seem more like rants than opening a new thread to discuss the latest news. Okay, okay ... the general topic of 'This is what's wrong with the Twins' is a topic of discussion ... but we've seen this in several threads already. Obviously there are new salient points that must be addressed, but it is this 'venting' and 'ranting' that becomes a detriment to my and others' enjoyment and participation in the forums.
     
    I've always thought the purpose of the forums on TD is for discussion, critical discussion. Yes, with disagreements and passion, but, nonetheless, critical discussion, with maybe a little humor and/or snark mixed in from time to time, no matter what side you fall on with any given issue. Posters have always been encouraged to start threads to discuss a particular topic, or general topic, or a news item you saw, or a blog you read, or a question you have, or a move that was made/not made, management issues, player issues etc. And yes, those discussions will get emotional and passionate as we all have a vested interest in the outcome of the Twins, and have our own opinions on what should/should not be, and often disagree on the best way forward. And sometimes threads do get a bit meandering and off topic despite our best efforts to try and keep them within loose boundaries. But this recent posting style, such as the OP, in my opinion, really needs to be directed towards the Blogs area on this site. These threads, such as the one I made example of, serve no purpose other than to regurgitate a list of generalized complaints and are not focussed points of discussion and only invite generalized regurgitating of someone else's complaints. The title of this thread 'End the insanity' in and of itself just opens the floor to everyone's complaints and soon we have a morass of unpleasant vomiting to wade through. Yes, we're frustrated and I'm not trying to take that away from anyone, not in the least, because well, it IS frustrating, to no end, at least for me. And I guess we each have our own way of dealing, but the Blogs are there for you to let it all out. You want to vent? Start a blog and vent away. You want to have a legitimate, critical discussion, stick to the forums and structure a thread that leads to that; a post or a thread that has been thought out and isn't some generalized rant that has no real basis in reality other than it's some emotional response, not a genuine reading of facts, to what you think should have happened. Don't just vomit up all your frustration for the rest of us to wade through; that's just lazy. Those are the types of threads and posts that keep me from the forums, not the stances people may take on the Twins in general or specifically. If you don't like a topic, you are free to not read it. If you don't like a particular poster, put them on ignore or skip over their posts. So I find myself more and more throwing my hands up and 'walking away' because threads just become unreadable the more this style continues.
     
    (Edit: I want to add that the thread I used as an example has generated a pretty fair and decent discussion. Many threads and posts of this 'listing of wrongs venting' have not. I'm in no way suggesting we can't be critical of the team and its management ... I mean, come on, look at the team ... I'm suggesting that don't just start a thread or make a post listing all that bothers you. Try to frame things so we can have legitimate discussions without being critical of fellow posters who might have a differing point of view, otherwise, try starting a blog. If you have to end a post or a thread start with '/end rant,' which this one did not, it probably would be better suited for a blog. They are very useful for 'getting it out' of your system. But given the OP of that thread, it was very easy for all of us to think to ourselves, 'Oy, this again?' and either walk away or get defensive or pile on. The following paragraph stands ... for all and everything. Stop the divisive language!)
     
    Another issue I want to address: this generalized characterization of posters some of you think necessary to throw into their posts. This 'The Twins can do no wrong crowd' or the 'Twins can do no right crowd' is hugely disrespectful and dismissive, and from this moderator, will not be tolerated. If you want to divide and pick sides, fine, go play a game of dodge ball, your posts will be removed. Lumping posters into such 'all or nothing' categories because they choose to disagree with a point here and there needs to stop. I try to stay fairly objective, as objective as I can in my own like/dislike of certain topics, in my reading here, despite my own frustrations with the team, but there really are only two or three posters that fall into those mentioned categories on each end of this spectrum. The large majority of posters fall everywhere in between. Yes, some have definite leanings, but I have seen very, very few posters who have blindly taken these all or nothing stances on everything Twins. If all you want to do is read posts only in agreement with you, then you are in the wrong place. It is nothing but smug self-righteousness to declare yourself so right and others wrong and then to label others in such a dismissive way. It's the same with the negative/positive crowd. This is nothing but from your perspective, and your perspective is NOT the end all to defining anyone else. Say your piece. Have at it. And if others disagree, so be it. Have a debate, be open-minded to another's views and why they take them, give them the benefit of the doubt, ask for explanations, and disagree if you just disagree, but don't be dismissive about it by saying 'You're just part of that crowd.' If one poster likes a move and another doesn't, they are not in any of the above-mentioned crowds, they just differ in opinions. And if a poster wants to point out a silver lining or a black cloud, so what? It's their opinion and no one is right or wrong here. I'm not sure why that is so difficult to understand. Does it bruise egos when someone doesn't like your point, or picks it apart with their own interpretation of the facts, or their own use (right or wrong) of various metrics, stats, other numbers? Get over it. Don't double down and hunker down so hard you develop tunnel vision, and resort to the "Oh, you just hate so and so" or "Oh, you just love so and so" as an argument. It's unproductive, lazy and weak. And it gets old, and frankly, loses credibility for the poster who uses that as an argument. And maybe, just maybe, we don't need to fight to the end. When it gets to the point of labeling posters, I think it's time to agree to disagree and just let it go.
     
    Okay ... I've run out of steam. Whew! That was so cathartic!!! You should give it a try.
     
    See what I did there? Here's how I got started and so can you. There are all sorts of things to click on to help you find your way through the blogs. There's even a tutorial ... which I didn't click, because I didn't need to. So ... have at it.
     
    1. On the red menu strip across the top, click on the word “Blogs”
    2. Click on the black rectangle that says ‘Create a Blog’
    3. Read the terms and rules, then check the box that says you have read and understood the terms, then click ‘Continue—>’
    4. Fill in the blanks with the Blog name, Blog description, choose blog type, then click continue.
    Example: Blog Name: ChiTown’s Fun Takes
    Blog Description: All that frustrates me about the Twins
    Blog Type: Local Blog
    5. Choose your settings
    6. Save
     
    At that point you can choose ‘Options’ and then ‘Add new entry’ and go to town. Or leave, collect your thoughts, come back and choose ‘Blogs’ from the red menu strip across the top, click ‘Add Entry’ and go to town.
  7. Like
    Thrylos got a reaction from nytwinsfan for a blog entry, Complete profile and scouting report of the newest Twins' pitcher LHP Adalberto Mejia   
    Originally published at The Tenth Inning Stretch
    ----The Twins acquired LHP Adalberto Mejia, from the San Fransisco Giants, in exchange for Eduardo Núñez. Núñez came to the Twins from the Yankees for Miguel Sulbaran who came to the Twins from the Dodgers for Drew Butura who came from the Mets for Louis Castillo who came from the Marlins for RHPs Scott Tyler the Twins 2001 2nd round draft pick and Travis Bowyer the Twins 1999 20th round draft pick.
     
    Mejia was signed as international free agent from the Dominican Republic by the Giants in 2011. Mejia last played for the Giants in AAA Sacramento River Cats (Pacific Coast League,) and was invited to their 2016 MLB camp for his first time. He is on the Twins' 40-man roster, and likely September callup.
     
    Mejia was born on 6/20/1993 in Bonao, Dominican Republic and was a late bloomer signing by the Giants as an eighteen year old. That season in the Dominican Summer League he impressed, starting 13 games for 76 innings with 71 K (8.4 K/9) and only 8 BB, with a 0.868 WHIP, 1.42 ERA and 1.75 FIP. This was enough for him to skip the Giants' US-based Rookie leagues, jumping right on full season A in 2012, playing for the Augusta GreenJackets of the Southern Atlantic League. He participated in 30 games, among them 14 starts. His final numbers for that season were: 106.7 IP with 79 K (6.7 K/9) 21 BB (1.8 BB/9), with a 1.341 WHIP, 3.97 ERA and 3.29 FIP. He started the season in the pen, with limited success and moved into the rotation in June, where he found success, finishing the season with a 6-3 record, 3.00 ERA and 1.13 WHIP, post All Star break.
     
    The next season he moved up to the San Jose Giants of the High A California League. He started 16 games (87 IP) with 89 K (9.2 K/9) and 23 BB (2.4 BB/9) for a 3.31 ERA, 4.20 FIP and 1.126 WHIP. He miss 48 games that season in May and June with shoulder issues, but came back okay. He was called to AAA Fresno to start a single game (5 IP, 5 H, 2 HR, 2 ER, 2 BB, 2 K) and participated in the Arizona Fall League playing in 7 games, 3 as a starter for 8.47 ERA, 1.529 WHIP, 7.4 K/9 and 4.2 BB/9 in 17 innings. In 2014 he moved up to AA Richmond Flying Squirrels (Eastern League) where he started 21 games and relieved in one, pitching 108 innings with 82 K (6.8 K/9) and 31 BB (2.6 BB/9), for a 1.389 WHIP, 4.67 ERA and 3.78 FIP. He went to the DL three times for 6 days with a leg bruise after a ball hit him in April and for 8- and 12-days in July with finger blisters. His weight that season went up to 240 lbs (he is 6'3") and needed to be reduced. Unfortunately he took a banned weight loss supplement that contained stimulants and tested positive, receiving a 50 day suspension, very much like current Twins' DH/1B Kennys Vargas.
     
    He repeated AA in 2015 after he served his suspension. He appeared in 12 games (9 GS), pitching 51.3 innings with 38 K (6.7 K/9) and 18 BB (3.2 BB/9), for a 1.091 WHIP, 2.45 ERA and 3.41 FIP. Despite the nice performance, he needed innings so he returned to the AFL (7 GS, 31 IP , 1.258 WHIP, 3.48 ERA, 7.5 K/9, 4.1 K/BB) and also appeared in the Dominican Winter League (playing for the Gigantes, coinsidentally: 5 GS, 18.3 IP , 1.091 WHIP, 3.44 ERA, 7.9 K/9, 1.5 K/BB). After he was invited to his first MLB spring training as part of the Giants' 40-man roster, he was caught in the numbers games and started against at AA Richmond where he excelled after he trimmed down this season (11 GS, 65 IP , 0.985 WHIP, 1.94 ERA, 8.0 K/9, 2.2 K/BB) forcing his promotion to AAA in his age 23 season (he was 22 at the time.) His numbers (7 GS, 40.7 IP , 1.303 WHIP, 4.20 ERA, 9.5 K/9, 2.4 K/BB) are fairly impressive, especially for the Pacific Coast League.
     
    He has an above average to borderline plus fastball that has increased in velocity this season, sitting at 92-94 and touching 95 as a starter. Average to above average command and improving and the pitch is projecting to be plus pitch in the near future. Natural cutting action on the pitch. His slider is his best pitch. Siting at 83-84 mph and up to 86. Nice biting motion, great command and above average control. This is a pitch that he throws anywhere on the count, pretty much like current Twins' starter Tyler Duffey does with his curve ball. He also throws a changeup that is an average to above average pitch that can improve. Nice fluid mechanics.
     
    Weight is a consideration for him, and it currently is under control, listed at 195 lbs. His ceiling is that of a number 3 starter, but he has a high floor. His floor is of a 8th inning reliever. He held lefties to a .216/.273/.275 slash line and had 11.3 K/9 against them, which is pretty impressive for the PCL.
     
    Mejia was listed as the 5th best Giants' prospect by Baseball America and 7th best by MLB.com. He would be among the top 10 in my Twins' list if I had to do this list now, but likely he will be called up in September and that will disqualify him. Very good return for the Twins.
     

  8. Like
    Thrylos got a reaction from dbminn for a blog entry, By the numbers: How bad have Deron Johnson's Twins' drafts been?   
    Originally published at The Tenth Inning Stretch
    -----------
    As the Minnesota Twins are evaluating their front office, I would like to take the opportunity to objectively evaluate the performance of certain parts of their front office for which there might be appropriate objective evaluation criteria. Deron Johnson, the Twins scouting director since 2008, who came into the organization when the dearly departed Terry Ryan became the General Manager in 1994, as a regional scout, has been primarily responsible for the Rule 4 amateur draft. There is a feeling that the Twins do not draft and develop players well. But drafting and developing are two different things, and need to see how each of them might be performing against the rest of the league.
     
    How has Johnson done against the league, in the draft?
     
    Here is the data: I looked at the overall WAR for each team for each draft for all players selected by that team in the first 10 rounds of that draft. Calculated the average WAR for each draft and the teams better are indicated with green. The teams are listed alphabetically and the Twins are bolded. Averages in yellow indicate small sample size, because simply not enough players made it to the bigs in the last few seasons to make any conclusions, but the ones who made it, count to the total team WAR numbers, since Deron Johnson was responsible for the Twins draft.
     

     
    Long story short:
     
    During the time that Johnson has been in charge of the Twins draft the Twins did better than only 6 other teams in the league: The Red Sox, Yankees, Phillies and the Rangers who all are willing to open their wallets and buy players drafted and developed by others and, surprisingly, the Rays, who are more than willing to sell everyone high to restock their system with players that other teams drafted to develop. The Twins do neither, so that it a pretty big problem. And yes Deron Johnson has been performing way below average, and D students should go home...
     
    Few notes:

    This is pretty interesting data about where the Twins can look to stock their front office. Surprisingly, the Diamondbacks', Padres', Jays', White Sox', and Nationals' systems might be good sources of scouting talent to replace at least Deron and some of his scouts.
    If it were not for 2009 where Dozier and Gibson account for most of the Twins' WAR, the numbers would be really pathetic.
    If you look at teams like the White Sox, that have had the fourth best draft WAR in the period and really nothing to show about it in the majors, you can make easy conclusions about problems with their development and management systems
    Yes, there are up and downs in most teams, but with the Twins other than 2009, it has been mostly downs, and the other teams, have done something about it (replacing under-performing Front Office pieces.) Will the Twins have the guts to do the same?

  9. Like
    Thrylos got a reaction from wickedslider for a blog entry, By the numbers: How bad have Deron Johnson's Twins' drafts been?   
    Originally published at The Tenth Inning Stretch
    -----------
    As the Minnesota Twins are evaluating their front office, I would like to take the opportunity to objectively evaluate the performance of certain parts of their front office for which there might be appropriate objective evaluation criteria. Deron Johnson, the Twins scouting director since 2008, who came into the organization when the dearly departed Terry Ryan became the General Manager in 1994, as a regional scout, has been primarily responsible for the Rule 4 amateur draft. There is a feeling that the Twins do not draft and develop players well. But drafting and developing are two different things, and need to see how each of them might be performing against the rest of the league.
     
    How has Johnson done against the league, in the draft?
     
    Here is the data: I looked at the overall WAR for each team for each draft for all players selected by that team in the first 10 rounds of that draft. Calculated the average WAR for each draft and the teams better are indicated with green. The teams are listed alphabetically and the Twins are bolded. Averages in yellow indicate small sample size, because simply not enough players made it to the bigs in the last few seasons to make any conclusions, but the ones who made it, count to the total team WAR numbers, since Deron Johnson was responsible for the Twins draft.
     

     
    Long story short:
     
    During the time that Johnson has been in charge of the Twins draft the Twins did better than only 6 other teams in the league: The Red Sox, Yankees, Phillies and the Rangers who all are willing to open their wallets and buy players drafted and developed by others and, surprisingly, the Rays, who are more than willing to sell everyone high to restock their system with players that other teams drafted to develop. The Twins do neither, so that it a pretty big problem. And yes Deron Johnson has been performing way below average, and D students should go home...
     
    Few notes:

    This is pretty interesting data about where the Twins can look to stock their front office. Surprisingly, the Diamondbacks', Padres', Jays', White Sox', and Nationals' systems might be good sources of scouting talent to replace at least Deron and some of his scouts.
    If it were not for 2009 where Dozier and Gibson account for most of the Twins' WAR, the numbers would be really pathetic.
    If you look at teams like the White Sox, that have had the fourth best draft WAR in the period and really nothing to show about it in the majors, you can make easy conclusions about problems with their development and management systems
    Yes, there are up and downs in most teams, but with the Twins other than 2009, it has been mostly downs, and the other teams, have done something about it (replacing under-performing Front Office pieces.) Will the Twins have the guts to do the same?

  10. Like
    Thrylos got a reaction from Platoon for a blog entry, By the numbers: How bad have Deron Johnson's Twins' drafts been?   
    Originally published at The Tenth Inning Stretch
    -----------
    As the Minnesota Twins are evaluating their front office, I would like to take the opportunity to objectively evaluate the performance of certain parts of their front office for which there might be appropriate objective evaluation criteria. Deron Johnson, the Twins scouting director since 2008, who came into the organization when the dearly departed Terry Ryan became the General Manager in 1994, as a regional scout, has been primarily responsible for the Rule 4 amateur draft. There is a feeling that the Twins do not draft and develop players well. But drafting and developing are two different things, and need to see how each of them might be performing against the rest of the league.
     
    How has Johnson done against the league, in the draft?
     
    Here is the data: I looked at the overall WAR for each team for each draft for all players selected by that team in the first 10 rounds of that draft. Calculated the average WAR for each draft and the teams better are indicated with green. The teams are listed alphabetically and the Twins are bolded. Averages in yellow indicate small sample size, because simply not enough players made it to the bigs in the last few seasons to make any conclusions, but the ones who made it, count to the total team WAR numbers, since Deron Johnson was responsible for the Twins draft.
     

     
    Long story short:
     
    During the time that Johnson has been in charge of the Twins draft the Twins did better than only 6 other teams in the league: The Red Sox, Yankees, Phillies and the Rangers who all are willing to open their wallets and buy players drafted and developed by others and, surprisingly, the Rays, who are more than willing to sell everyone high to restock their system with players that other teams drafted to develop. The Twins do neither, so that it a pretty big problem. And yes Deron Johnson has been performing way below average, and D students should go home...
     
    Few notes:

    This is pretty interesting data about where the Twins can look to stock their front office. Surprisingly, the Diamondbacks', Padres', Jays', White Sox', and Nationals' systems might be good sources of scouting talent to replace at least Deron and some of his scouts.
    If it were not for 2009 where Dozier and Gibson account for most of the Twins' WAR, the numbers would be really pathetic.
    If you look at teams like the White Sox, that have had the fourth best draft WAR in the period and really nothing to show about it in the majors, you can make easy conclusions about problems with their development and management systems
    Yes, there are up and downs in most teams, but with the Twins other than 2009, it has been mostly downs, and the other teams, have done something about it (replacing under-performing Front Office pieces.) Will the Twins have the guts to do the same?

  11. Like
    Thrylos got a reaction from Oldgoat_MN for a blog entry, Spring Training Redux. How will the Twins do in 2016? Here is my prediction   
    Originally Published at The Tenth Inning Stretch
    -----
     
    With the Twins' Spring Training almost in the books and having spend about 10 days in Fort Myers following the Twins' closely (here are all my Spring Training articles in Chronological order,) I am ready to make a prediction for the 2016 Twins.
     
    This team has a few question marks left, but a lot of my concerns were answered:

    Miguel Sano will be a moster with the bat again this season, and regardless of his size, he will be at least as good an outfielder as Torii Hunter was last season, when it all said and done.
    Ervin Santana and Kyle Gibson are men on a mission in the Twins' rotation and might be the best 1-2 punch the Twins' had since Jack Morris and Scott Erickson in 1991. Phil Hughes is pitching better than last season and Ricky Nolasco is pitching like a man with something to prove, and he has to. The only question mark in the rotation is Tommy Milone, who could be easily replaced by the likes of Alex Meyer or Jose Berrios, or even Taylor Roger, if the need comes.
    Byung Ho Park is the real thing. And he does not have an attitude about it. In 2015 DH was the most productive position in the Twins' lineup, mainly because the promotion of Sano. The Twins got .251/.338/.421 with 21 HRs from the DH position in 2015. I expect this to be Park's baseline.
    Byron Buxton has shown signs of improvement with the bat, albeit small. His glove alone is worth +2 wins and much improved Danny Santana and Oswaldo Arcia (who is in tremendous shape btw,) can pick the slack if necessary.
    Kurt Suzuki also looks better and refreshed. Will a smaller workload keep them getting close to his 2014 numbers? I hope so.
    Joltin' Joe Mauer (sorry couldn't help myself) has an .802 OPS for the Spring, which beat his .756 and .667 OPS the last 2 Springs, sunglasses or not.

    More importantly this team looks like a team that wants to win, a team that wins and a team that has fun doing it.
     
    The biggest question mark is the bullpen, and especially the closer. If you find out that the out of shape closer, who fell apart the last 2 seasons, took up home brewing as a hobby in the off-season and his fastball and slider are a good 5 to 6 miles per hour below their peak, you have to be concerned. On the other hand, if Perkins falters, the Twins have good options at AA and AAA, including righties JT Chargois and Nick Burdi who can have a part in the Twins' pen today, and lefty Mason Melotakis, who is a few innings away from returning from TJ surgery as a dominant lefty.
     
    The pen was the Twins' biggest concern this off-season and it has not been addressed at all. The 2016 Twins will go as far as their pen lets them go. I hope that Ryan has a short leash on Perkins and does the right thing for the team when he has to.
     
    Because of this, and my lack of trust in the Twins' GM and the Twins' closer, I predict that the Twins will finish the 2016 season with an 87-75 record. 90 wins will not be out of reach, with a couple of early season pen investments...
  12. Like
    Thrylos got a reaction from big dog for a blog entry, 2016 Twins Spring Training Coverage from Fort Myers. 3/23: Nolasco cements a job in the rotation   
    Originally Published at The Tenth Inning Stretch
    ----
     
    Today was the last live game from Fort Myers. Yesterday, I shared some thoughts about the Twins 25-man roster and based on what I have seen previously, Rickey Nolasco should be the Twins' fifth starter. With another stellar performance today against the Rays, going for 6 innings allowing only 3 hits, no earned runs, walking 2 and striking out 7, he cemented that position, especially when in Field number 2 his only competition, Tyler Duffey, allowed two home runs among other hard hit balls this afternoon. Pending a trade, I can see no way that Nolasco will not be in the Twins' rotation, and arguably has pitched pretty well this spring, earning a spot.
     
    Glen Perkins' appearance today and the rest of the Spring has been worrisome. His fastball barely reached 91 and his slider 81, and has been batter all over Hammond Stadium without finishing an inning. In 2/3 of an inning he allowed 2 hits and a walk with no strikeouts, adding up to 3 runs. I hope Terry Ryan has a plan B in his back pocket for a closer, because Perkins is continuing his decline from last season second half.
     
    As far as position players go, Eduardo Nunez was horrible today: Two errand throws to the first and a dropped ball on a base steal attempt did not help the Twins' cause. Let's call it a hick up and hope that it will not continue to happen.
     
    Byron Buxton has a lackluster performance a couple days ago, but today, he made up for it. He has a great running catch in the first innings and also got an infield hit in a ball hit deep in the shortstop, in the same situation he did not previously. I think that he also might be cementing a spot in the 25 man roster.
     
    So is Danny Santana, who got an infield hit in a drag bunt, then stole second, and in a play that featured 3 errant throws by Rays scored. Great heads up play, plus his speed and versatility will help.
     
    Oswaldo Arcia likely won the last 25 man spot over former hated White Sox player Carlos Quentin. Arcia has been better on the field that Quentin, making some difficult plays, whereas Quentin has no position, and has been better with the stick and the basepaths, stealing a couple of bases so far. I think that Quentin was brought in as a plan B if Byung Ho Park did not pan out right away as a 1B/DH, but this is not the case. So it looks like the Twins' position player side in the 25 man roster is about set. There are still some question-marks in the bullpen, as I indicated yesterday.
     
    Next: Catching an airplane up North tomorrow and either later this week or early next will will give my Spring Training Redux and my prediction for the Twins' 2016. Still need to chew on this a bit...
  13. Like
    Thrylos got a reaction from Dman for a blog entry, 2016 Twins Spring Training Coverage from Fort Myers. 3/23: Nolasco cements a job in the rotation   
    Originally Published at The Tenth Inning Stretch
    ----
     
    Today was the last live game from Fort Myers. Yesterday, I shared some thoughts about the Twins 25-man roster and based on what I have seen previously, Rickey Nolasco should be the Twins' fifth starter. With another stellar performance today against the Rays, going for 6 innings allowing only 3 hits, no earned runs, walking 2 and striking out 7, he cemented that position, especially when in Field number 2 his only competition, Tyler Duffey, allowed two home runs among other hard hit balls this afternoon. Pending a trade, I can see no way that Nolasco will not be in the Twins' rotation, and arguably has pitched pretty well this spring, earning a spot.
     
    Glen Perkins' appearance today and the rest of the Spring has been worrisome. His fastball barely reached 91 and his slider 81, and has been batter all over Hammond Stadium without finishing an inning. In 2/3 of an inning he allowed 2 hits and a walk with no strikeouts, adding up to 3 runs. I hope Terry Ryan has a plan B in his back pocket for a closer, because Perkins is continuing his decline from last season second half.
     
    As far as position players go, Eduardo Nunez was horrible today: Two errand throws to the first and a dropped ball on a base steal attempt did not help the Twins' cause. Let's call it a hick up and hope that it will not continue to happen.
     
    Byron Buxton has a lackluster performance a couple days ago, but today, he made up for it. He has a great running catch in the first innings and also got an infield hit in a ball hit deep in the shortstop, in the same situation he did not previously. I think that he also might be cementing a spot in the 25 man roster.
     
    So is Danny Santana, who got an infield hit in a drag bunt, then stole second, and in a play that featured 3 errant throws by Rays scored. Great heads up play, plus his speed and versatility will help.
     
    Oswaldo Arcia likely won the last 25 man spot over former hated White Sox player Carlos Quentin. Arcia has been better on the field that Quentin, making some difficult plays, whereas Quentin has no position, and has been better with the stick and the basepaths, stealing a couple of bases so far. I think that Quentin was brought in as a plan B if Byung Ho Park did not pan out right away as a 1B/DH, but this is not the case. So it looks like the Twins' position player side in the 25 man roster is about set. There are still some question-marks in the bullpen, as I indicated yesterday.
     
    Next: Catching an airplane up North tomorrow and either later this week or early next will will give my Spring Training Redux and my prediction for the Twins' 2016. Still need to chew on this a bit...
  14. Like
    Thrylos got a reaction from Platoon for a blog entry, 2016 Twins Spring Training Coverage from Fort Myers. 3/23: Nolasco cements a job in the rotation   
    Originally Published at The Tenth Inning Stretch
    ----
     
    Today was the last live game from Fort Myers. Yesterday, I shared some thoughts about the Twins 25-man roster and based on what I have seen previously, Rickey Nolasco should be the Twins' fifth starter. With another stellar performance today against the Rays, going for 6 innings allowing only 3 hits, no earned runs, walking 2 and striking out 7, he cemented that position, especially when in Field number 2 his only competition, Tyler Duffey, allowed two home runs among other hard hit balls this afternoon. Pending a trade, I can see no way that Nolasco will not be in the Twins' rotation, and arguably has pitched pretty well this spring, earning a spot.
     
    Glen Perkins' appearance today and the rest of the Spring has been worrisome. His fastball barely reached 91 and his slider 81, and has been batter all over Hammond Stadium without finishing an inning. In 2/3 of an inning he allowed 2 hits and a walk with no strikeouts, adding up to 3 runs. I hope Terry Ryan has a plan B in his back pocket for a closer, because Perkins is continuing his decline from last season second half.
     
    As far as position players go, Eduardo Nunez was horrible today: Two errand throws to the first and a dropped ball on a base steal attempt did not help the Twins' cause. Let's call it a hick up and hope that it will not continue to happen.
     
    Byron Buxton has a lackluster performance a couple days ago, but today, he made up for it. He has a great running catch in the first innings and also got an infield hit in a ball hit deep in the shortstop, in the same situation he did not previously. I think that he also might be cementing a spot in the 25 man roster.
     
    So is Danny Santana, who got an infield hit in a drag bunt, then stole second, and in a play that featured 3 errant throws by Rays scored. Great heads up play, plus his speed and versatility will help.
     
    Oswaldo Arcia likely won the last 25 man spot over former hated White Sox player Carlos Quentin. Arcia has been better on the field that Quentin, making some difficult plays, whereas Quentin has no position, and has been better with the stick and the basepaths, stealing a couple of bases so far. I think that Quentin was brought in as a plan B if Byung Ho Park did not pan out right away as a 1B/DH, but this is not the case. So it looks like the Twins' position player side in the 25 man roster is about set. There are still some question-marks in the bullpen, as I indicated yesterday.
     
    Next: Catching an airplane up North tomorrow and either later this week or early next will will give my Spring Training Redux and my prediction for the Twins' 2016. Still need to chew on this a bit...
  15. Like
    Thrylos got a reaction from nytwinsfan for a blog entry, 2016 Twins Spring Training Coverage from Fort Myers. 3/18: Ricky, the Pen, and a Prognostication   
    Originally published at The Tenth Inning Stretch
    ----
     
    Another day without a Twins' home game and I decided to state at the back fields of Lee County Sports Complex to watch Ricky Nolasco pitch with the Twins' AAA team against the Red Sox' AAA team, instead of making the trip across I-75 to Jet Blue Park to watch the MLB Twins and Tyler Duffey face the MLB Sox. Despite what the Twins are saying, and not only because they are starting the same day these days, it is pretty clear that Tommy Milone is guaranteed a position in the rotation and the last spot will be a potential battle between Nolasco and Duffey.
     
    Nolasco pitched for 4 innings in Field 3 today. He threw four pitches, a 90-92 Fastball, a 73-77 mph Curveball, an 82-84 mph Slider and a 80-82 mph split finger change. All in all, Nolasco's appearance today was much better than that by Hughes yesterday. As with Hughes, Kurt Suzuki was Nolasco's catcher. Last week I wrote an in depth analysis of Nolasco's performance and among other things, I included an analysis of his pitches and results. And it was spot on based on my observations today: His curveball was totally filthy and induced both looking and swinging strikes and strikeouts and weak grounders. His split finger change is a pretty much awful pitch. Very little command and when it was in the strike zone did not fare well. This pitch, as per my previous recommendation, should never see the light of day or artificial day in a major league ballpark again. His fastball was better as the game went on with more command in the later than the earlier innings and he broke at least a couple bats with it. Definitely his breaking stuff is his out pitches and it is plus to plus plus. The problem is that he needs the good fastball so that major league hitters do not avoid his breaking balls and waiting for the fastball (or the horrible split finger.) If he throws his slider and curveball about 50%+ of the time, he has a good possibility for a come back season, depending on the day his fastball is having. Overall it was a very good performance over the eyes of a couple of scouts (Rangers & Padres) and Terry Ryan and the Twins' media dignitaries:
     
    Prognostication: based on his Spring Performances, his stuff and his career record, unless traded, Ricky Nolasco will be the Twins' fifth starter over Tyler Duffey who had another hard start today.
     
    A few more observations from Field Three today:
     
    I was looking forward to see the Twins' number 18 prospect for 2016, Daniel Palka for the first time live as a Twin. He hit a no-doubter home run in the first evening to the warehouse behind right Centerfield in his first plate appearance and then hit another long ball to far right for a foul in his second PA before eventually grounded out to first in a footrace. I like what I saw from him in a limited action. I think that he will turn into a useful player for the Twins and will bring in some left handed power they really lack...
     
    Speaking of left handed power, DJ Hicks, hit a very long home run, right about where Palka hit his. Really good to see him finally healthy and swinging the bat, since the Twins need that left hand power.
     
    Speaking of power, the Twins' number 19 prospect for 2016, Adam Brett Walker, hit two very long home runs in fastballs in the middle of plate and struck out in 3 breaking balls in the dirt in his other plate appearance. If someone teaches Walker to recognize the spin of the breaking ball and keep the bat on his shoulder when he sees it, will be doing him and the Twins a great service.
     
    Niko Goodrum, the Twins' number 37 prospect for 2016, who came a bit bigger this Spring showed much better plate recognition taking two walks in his first two plate appearances, but was thrown out stealing after the first, in a situation that would have been an easy SB for him last season, and made an error bobbling a ball at SS. OF is his position and hopefully this will be where he will play when the middle infield cuts from the MLB camp trickle down to the minors.
     
    After today's cuts, here are the players left who are competing for 7 spots in the Twins' pen:
     
    Glen Perkins
    Kevin Jepsen
    Trevor May
    Casey Fien
    Ryan O'Rourke
    JR Graham
    Ryan Pressly
    Mike Tonkin
     
    Logan Darnell
    Taylor Rogers
    Fernando Abad
    Buddy Boshers
    Dan Runzler
     
    Brandon Kintzler
    Nolasco or Duffey
     
    The first 8 (maybe with the exception of Pressly) were part of the 2015 bullpen that was one of the worst bullpens (maybe THE Worst, depending on how you are counting) in the league; one of the group of the next 5 lefties will replace Brian Duensing and one of the next two might replace Blaine Boyer.
     
    Unless the Twins decide to get Duffey a pen roll (which is unlikely since they will like him to start in Rochester,) this pen is spiting image of the 2015 pen that was as effective as spitting in the wind...
     
    This is by no means good news for the Twins...
  16. Like
    Thrylos got a reaction from nytwinsfan for a blog entry, 2016 Twins Spring Training Coverage from Fort Myers. 3/17: The action was at the back fields   
    Originally published at The Tenth Inning Stretch
    ----
     
    Today, for the second start in a row, the Twins chose not to pitch Phil Hughes against the Orioles (a team they open the season with 3 games in Baltimore.) Instead Hughes pitched 5 innings in the back fields with the Twins' A+ team against the Rays' A+ squad. Curt Suzuki was there to catch him. Next door with the A squad, Kevin Jepsen pitched the first inning and Oswaldo Arcia had 3 plate appearances as a DH against the Rays' A team.
     
    Phil Hughes labored for 5 innings with 78 pitches, including a 28 pitch second inning, in which the defense behind him failed to convert 3 straight forward double play opportunities. He thew 55 of those pitches in strikes and commanded the ball pretty well, inducing mostly weak ground balls, a couple of fly balls and a couple of strikeouts. His fastball was at 89-91, with one at 92, his cutter 86-91, changeup 81-84 and curve 77-79 mph. These numbers were close to his 2015 velocity averages (90.7 for the FB, and 87.8 for the cutter.) All in all it was a "getting his work in" type of session for Hughes, who by no means cruised against high A competition.
     
    Across the field, Kevin Jepsen had a better game, of what I could catch with my peripheral vision, but Oswaldo Arcia stole the show there, hitting a home run close to the major league practice field, under the watching eyes of scouts from the Cubs, Padres, Athletics and another team. The same Rangers' scout who was there yesterday was the single scout scouting Hughes and the Twins' A+ team.
     

     
    Additional impressions from the A team field:
     
    Amaurys Minier, the Twins' number 15 prospect for 2016, played First Base, coming off an injury plague season in Elizabethton. His swing seems more compact that it did last season and he legged out a single in a not very hard hit ball at the SS and had another opposite field single at an outside corner ball with full count. Also went from first to third with ease on a ball hit to Right Field. His speed and running has been improved, since Minier has been pretty much a non-factor in the base paths his whole career. He made a couple of good fielding plays at first base, moving easily both to his left and to his right and made secure and on the spot underhand throws to the pitcher to get the outs.
     
    Jermaine Palacios, the Twins' number 8 prospect for 2016, played Short Stop at that game. He seems not to have gained a pound last off-season, but his fielding, which has been for a good reason, was fine. He made several routine plays at shortstop and did not look tentative making them, but he was not really challenged. In the couple of plate appearances I followed, he showed quick wrists and good contact capabilities.
     
    I saw a single plate appearance by Travis Blackenhorn, the Twins' number 38 prospect for 2016. He has the capability of making contact since he saw several balls and fouled a lot of them. He went with the ball and was able to move it to the opposite field. Would need work to start making productive contact, but the basics are there. He did not look tentative at all and went around his business like he owned the box. Reminded me a bit of a young(er) Max Kepler.
     
    22 year old lefty Sam Clay, pitched 4 innings in that contest. He featured an 89-91 mph fastball with good movement in both planes and a low 80s slider and change up. The slider is above average at this point and has the potential of being a plus pitch, but his control with all of his pitches is all over the place. If he learns how to command and control them, the former 4th round draft pick of 2014, will be someone to watch for. But he is still a work in progress. He looks like a good defender, defending a tough bunt towards his throwing arm side flawlessly.
     
    25 year old Tyler Stirewalt, a righty who was drafted by the Twins in the 21st round of the 2013 draft and lost all of 2014 and part of 2015 to injuries, also pitched in that game. He threw a 90-92 mph fastball and a 77-79 slurve. Many command and control issues as well, but there is potential there. However being 25 and never pitching above Rookie ball, might mean that there might not be time to realize that potential.
     
    A couple of snippets from the other field:
     
    Max Murphy, the Twins 9th Round pick in 2014, a Minnesotan from Robbinsdale looked like a man on a mission. This is his age 23 season and he really looks bulked up and much stronger. He legged out a triple in a long hit at the CF over the defenders' heads and scored in the subsequent play by tagging up after a shallow ball at the RF. After an excellent 2014, he did not do much last season in Cedar Rapids, but definitely someone to pay attention to this season.
     
    Felix Jorge, the Twins' number 20 prospect for 2016 pitched 2 innings for the high A team. I had a chance to watch one of them. His sinker was from 91-93 with good heavy action and his changeup was in the low 70s and it was pretty much lethal as usual. Seemed to have good control with the fastball, which has been questionable in spots. The big question mark around Jorge is weather he will have the stamina to be a started, which will likely take more than a season to answer.
     
    Regretted not seeing Nick Gordon and Lamond Wade who were injured as well as Trevor May who threw after I departed.
     
    Tomorrow Ricky Nolasco will be starting in the back fields, while the Twins will be playing the Red Sox at the Jet Blue Stadium and I will be there to give you the action on the field by him, as well as by the scouts on the bleachers.
  17. Like
    Thrylos got a reaction from jorgenswest for a blog entry, 2016 Twins Spring Training Coverage from Fort Myers. 3/17: The action was at the back fields   
    Originally published at The Tenth Inning Stretch
    ----
     
    Today, for the second start in a row, the Twins chose not to pitch Phil Hughes against the Orioles (a team they open the season with 3 games in Baltimore.) Instead Hughes pitched 5 innings in the back fields with the Twins' A+ team against the Rays' A+ squad. Curt Suzuki was there to catch him. Next door with the A squad, Kevin Jepsen pitched the first inning and Oswaldo Arcia had 3 plate appearances as a DH against the Rays' A team.
     
    Phil Hughes labored for 5 innings with 78 pitches, including a 28 pitch second inning, in which the defense behind him failed to convert 3 straight forward double play opportunities. He thew 55 of those pitches in strikes and commanded the ball pretty well, inducing mostly weak ground balls, a couple of fly balls and a couple of strikeouts. His fastball was at 89-91, with one at 92, his cutter 86-91, changeup 81-84 and curve 77-79 mph. These numbers were close to his 2015 velocity averages (90.7 for the FB, and 87.8 for the cutter.) All in all it was a "getting his work in" type of session for Hughes, who by no means cruised against high A competition.
     
    Across the field, Kevin Jepsen had a better game, of what I could catch with my peripheral vision, but Oswaldo Arcia stole the show there, hitting a home run close to the major league practice field, under the watching eyes of scouts from the Cubs, Padres, Athletics and another team. The same Rangers' scout who was there yesterday was the single scout scouting Hughes and the Twins' A+ team.
     

     
    Additional impressions from the A team field:
     
    Amaurys Minier, the Twins' number 15 prospect for 2016, played First Base, coming off an injury plague season in Elizabethton. His swing seems more compact that it did last season and he legged out a single in a not very hard hit ball at the SS and had another opposite field single at an outside corner ball with full count. Also went from first to third with ease on a ball hit to Right Field. His speed and running has been improved, since Minier has been pretty much a non-factor in the base paths his whole career. He made a couple of good fielding plays at first base, moving easily both to his left and to his right and made secure and on the spot underhand throws to the pitcher to get the outs.
     
    Jermaine Palacios, the Twins' number 8 prospect for 2016, played Short Stop at that game. He seems not to have gained a pound last off-season, but his fielding, which has been for a good reason, was fine. He made several routine plays at shortstop and did not look tentative making them, but he was not really challenged. In the couple of plate appearances I followed, he showed quick wrists and good contact capabilities.
     
    I saw a single plate appearance by Travis Blackenhorn, the Twins' number 38 prospect for 2016. He has the capability of making contact since he saw several balls and fouled a lot of them. He went with the ball and was able to move it to the opposite field. Would need work to start making productive contact, but the basics are there. He did not look tentative at all and went around his business like he owned the box. Reminded me a bit of a young(er) Max Kepler.
     
    22 year old lefty Sam Clay, pitched 4 innings in that contest. He featured an 89-91 mph fastball with good movement in both planes and a low 80s slider and change up. The slider is above average at this point and has the potential of being a plus pitch, but his control with all of his pitches is all over the place. If he learns how to command and control them, the former 4th round draft pick of 2014, will be someone to watch for. But he is still a work in progress. He looks like a good defender, defending a tough bunt towards his throwing arm side flawlessly.
     
    25 year old Tyler Stirewalt, a righty who was drafted by the Twins in the 21st round of the 2013 draft and lost all of 2014 and part of 2015 to injuries, also pitched in that game. He threw a 90-92 mph fastball and a 77-79 slurve. Many command and control issues as well, but there is potential there. However being 25 and never pitching above Rookie ball, might mean that there might not be time to realize that potential.
     
    A couple of snippets from the other field:
     
    Max Murphy, the Twins 9th Round pick in 2014, a Minnesotan from Robbinsdale looked like a man on a mission. This is his age 23 season and he really looks bulked up and much stronger. He legged out a triple in a long hit at the CF over the defenders' heads and scored in the subsequent play by tagging up after a shallow ball at the RF. After an excellent 2014, he did not do much last season in Cedar Rapids, but definitely someone to pay attention to this season.
     
    Felix Jorge, the Twins' number 20 prospect for 2016 pitched 2 innings for the high A team. I had a chance to watch one of them. His sinker was from 91-93 with good heavy action and his changeup was in the low 70s and it was pretty much lethal as usual. Seemed to have good control with the fastball, which has been questionable in spots. The big question mark around Jorge is weather he will have the stamina to be a started, which will likely take more than a season to answer.
     
    Regretted not seeing Nick Gordon and Lamond Wade who were injured as well as Trevor May who threw after I departed.
     
    Tomorrow Ricky Nolasco will be starting in the back fields, while the Twins will be playing the Red Sox at the Jet Blue Stadium and I will be there to give you the action on the field by him, as well as by the scouts on the bleachers.
  18. Like
    Thrylos got a reaction from howieramone2 for a blog entry, 2016 Twins Spring Training Coverage from Fort Myers. Day 1: The Doubleheader   
    Originally published at The Tenth Inning Stretch
    ----------
     
    Today the Twins had a 7:05 PM game hosting the Boston Red Sox. At 1PM the Twins' AAA and AA teams hosted the equivalent of the Orioles'. I spent the afternoon watching the Twins AA team, before moved to Hammond Stadium in the evening for the nightcap.
     
    I was delighted to see that Tyler Jay was the starter for the AA game. Jay was ranked as the Twins' number 2 prospect in my off-season 2016 rankings and I have to say that he proved me happy with that ranking. He pitched for a full 4 innings and featured 4 pitches: a 93-94 mph FB that topped at 96, an 85-86 mph slider, an 81-83 mph change up and a 77-80 mph curve. This is a very effective pitch mix for him. He has a short arm delivery and hides the ball well. He commands all pitches well and his fastball is definitely his out pitch; sets it up beautifully with the slider and the change up. He throws his curve low and outside the strike zone to make hitters chase it; and they do. At this level. One of the questions about Jay has been the ability to be a started as far as endurance goes. Today he was not frugal with his pitches, which is something that he would have to learn as he matures as a professional.
     
    His Catcher was 25 year old Joe Maloney who the Twins signed as a minor league free agent after an MVP season in the Canadian-American Association Independent League Rockland Boulders. Maloney's problem is that he is not a very good catcher and he showed that today, having a throw sail over the head of the second baseman on a steal attempt and two passed balls. The second passed ball bounced off Maloney's glove to the home plate umpire's hand to his cup, incapacitating the umpire. Twins' legend Tom Kelly had to call balls and strikes behind the pitcher for the next half inning before a replacement umpire relieved him:
     

     
    Another new minor league free agent on display today was Keury De La Cruz. The 24 year old outfielder has one of the longest swings I have seen with an extremely violent back swing. After his first PA, I mumbled that someone will get hurt here, and in the 5th inning, it happened to get the Baltimore catcher's head with that backswing. Some serious coaching needs to happen here. De La Cruz provided a bit of a comic relief sliding feet first about 2 feet to the left of where a routine fly ball fell in the second inning. Will not be surprised in the Twins bite the bullet and cut him soon.
     
    The Twins signed 27 year old RHP Omar Belcomo from the American Association Independent League where he last played for the Wichita Lugnuts, to make 3 starts for the Fort Myers Miracle at the end of their season. Belcomo last played affiliated ball in 2011 for the Tampa Bay Rays single A team at Bowling Green. He is an interesting player to keep an eye on, as he is a poor man's Sam Deduno. He has two pitches: A fastball that goes from 86 to 91, which he can absolutely not command and goes all over the place, including the head of a Baltimore hitter in his second inning of work. His second pitch is a 77-81 mph change up that actually is an above average to a plus pitch, and a pitch that he seems to be able to control.
     
    Raul Fernandez was another of the minor league free agents the Twins signed last off-season. The 25 year old RHP Dominican was converted from Catcher to Pitcher by the Rockies after his first DSL season and spent last season in the White Sox' AA team. Long arm motion with 92-93 mph FB with late pop, an 88 mph cutter/2-seamer and a low 80s change up. Very good ability to mix them and throw them all for strikes and good command. He seemed to confuse batters.
     
    Brian Gilbert seems to get his fastball up a couple ticks, consistently hitting 94 and 95 with a couple of 96 mph. He complemented that with an 85-86 mph slider. Seemed to be effectively wild, but it is the start of the Spring Training. Just 23, drafted by the Twins in the 7th round in 2013; keep your eye open for him.
     
    Yorman Landa was the last pitcher for the AA Twins, fresh from the MLB side of Spring Training. I last saw him pitch a couple seasons ago and he is a different pitcher. He supplemented his excellent high 80s low 90s 2-seamer with a 4-seamer that sit at 93-95 and popped up to 96, but is straight with inconsistent command and control. Straight FBs at 95 and 96 will get hit hard by good AA hitters and that is what happened to him today. His 78-81 mph curve was good. He did not throw a change up today. Definite potential there, but he needs work.
     
    Something to keep in mind: Today watching the Twins' AA pitchers was a Texas Rangers' (who train in AZ) scout. Not sure that anything is going on, but he was there.
     
    Fast forward a few hrs to the Twins' MLB game at Hammond Stadium against the Red Sox.
     
    Kyle Gibson was the starter, and he had things really working for him, including his best pitch, a slider, purely made of filth, dancing at 84-86 mph and striking out Red Sox who were either looking at it with open eyes or swinging and missing wildly. That today was a FranKKKKKKKKKKKKKie Liriano slider in his prime, Ladies and Gentlemen. Four seamer 92-95, two seamer high 80s, and a changeup at 79-81 was the rest of Gibson's repertoire tonight. Gibson was in mid-season form.
     
    Another player who was in mid-season form was Miguel Sano, who punished a Bucholtz breaking ball deeply off the Centerfield wall for a double, and even more importantly made a solid catch in RF and threw a pea that would had thrown the tagging runner out at third if Trevor Plouffe did not bobble the ball.
     
    Back to pitching. One of the greatest mysteries this spring has been Glen Perkins' velocity, so I charted all of his pitches. Here they are:
     
    FB 90, FB 89, FB 91, FB 86, FB 89, SL 78, FB 91, FB 88, SL 78, SL 79, SL 81, FL 89, FB 89, FB 90, SL 81, FB 89.
     
    86-91 mph FB and 78-81 mph SL. This is a good 5-6 mph off where Perkins need to be to be effective. Nevertheless this should be raising more Red Flags to the Twins' brass than there are outside the Kremlin...
     
    Have a few more notes from today, but for the sake of brevity, I will include them in one of the future writeups
  19. Like
    Thrylos got a reaction from nytwinsfan for a blog entry, 2016 Twins Spring Training Coverage from Fort Myers. Day 1: The Doubleheader   
    Originally published at The Tenth Inning Stretch
    ----------
     
    Today the Twins had a 7:05 PM game hosting the Boston Red Sox. At 1PM the Twins' AAA and AA teams hosted the equivalent of the Orioles'. I spent the afternoon watching the Twins AA team, before moved to Hammond Stadium in the evening for the nightcap.
     
    I was delighted to see that Tyler Jay was the starter for the AA game. Jay was ranked as the Twins' number 2 prospect in my off-season 2016 rankings and I have to say that he proved me happy with that ranking. He pitched for a full 4 innings and featured 4 pitches: a 93-94 mph FB that topped at 96, an 85-86 mph slider, an 81-83 mph change up and a 77-80 mph curve. This is a very effective pitch mix for him. He has a short arm delivery and hides the ball well. He commands all pitches well and his fastball is definitely his out pitch; sets it up beautifully with the slider and the change up. He throws his curve low and outside the strike zone to make hitters chase it; and they do. At this level. One of the questions about Jay has been the ability to be a started as far as endurance goes. Today he was not frugal with his pitches, which is something that he would have to learn as he matures as a professional.
     
    His Catcher was 25 year old Joe Maloney who the Twins signed as a minor league free agent after an MVP season in the Canadian-American Association Independent League Rockland Boulders. Maloney's problem is that he is not a very good catcher and he showed that today, having a throw sail over the head of the second baseman on a steal attempt and two passed balls. The second passed ball bounced off Maloney's glove to the home plate umpire's hand to his cup, incapacitating the umpire. Twins' legend Tom Kelly had to call balls and strikes behind the pitcher for the next half inning before a replacement umpire relieved him:
     

     
    Another new minor league free agent on display today was Keury De La Cruz. The 24 year old outfielder has one of the longest swings I have seen with an extremely violent back swing. After his first PA, I mumbled that someone will get hurt here, and in the 5th inning, it happened to get the Baltimore catcher's head with that backswing. Some serious coaching needs to happen here. De La Cruz provided a bit of a comic relief sliding feet first about 2 feet to the left of where a routine fly ball fell in the second inning. Will not be surprised in the Twins bite the bullet and cut him soon.
     
    The Twins signed 27 year old RHP Omar Belcomo from the American Association Independent League where he last played for the Wichita Lugnuts, to make 3 starts for the Fort Myers Miracle at the end of their season. Belcomo last played affiliated ball in 2011 for the Tampa Bay Rays single A team at Bowling Green. He is an interesting player to keep an eye on, as he is a poor man's Sam Deduno. He has two pitches: A fastball that goes from 86 to 91, which he can absolutely not command and goes all over the place, including the head of a Baltimore hitter in his second inning of work. His second pitch is a 77-81 mph change up that actually is an above average to a plus pitch, and a pitch that he seems to be able to control.
     
    Raul Fernandez was another of the minor league free agents the Twins signed last off-season. The 25 year old RHP Dominican was converted from Catcher to Pitcher by the Rockies after his first DSL season and spent last season in the White Sox' AA team. Long arm motion with 92-93 mph FB with late pop, an 88 mph cutter/2-seamer and a low 80s change up. Very good ability to mix them and throw them all for strikes and good command. He seemed to confuse batters.
     
    Brian Gilbert seems to get his fastball up a couple ticks, consistently hitting 94 and 95 with a couple of 96 mph. He complemented that with an 85-86 mph slider. Seemed to be effectively wild, but it is the start of the Spring Training. Just 23, drafted by the Twins in the 7th round in 2013; keep your eye open for him.
     
    Yorman Landa was the last pitcher for the AA Twins, fresh from the MLB side of Spring Training. I last saw him pitch a couple seasons ago and he is a different pitcher. He supplemented his excellent high 80s low 90s 2-seamer with a 4-seamer that sit at 93-95 and popped up to 96, but is straight with inconsistent command and control. Straight FBs at 95 and 96 will get hit hard by good AA hitters and that is what happened to him today. His 78-81 mph curve was good. He did not throw a change up today. Definite potential there, but he needs work.
     
    Something to keep in mind: Today watching the Twins' AA pitchers was a Texas Rangers' (who train in AZ) scout. Not sure that anything is going on, but he was there.
     
    Fast forward a few hrs to the Twins' MLB game at Hammond Stadium against the Red Sox.
     
    Kyle Gibson was the starter, and he had things really working for him, including his best pitch, a slider, purely made of filth, dancing at 84-86 mph and striking out Red Sox who were either looking at it with open eyes or swinging and missing wildly. That today was a FranKKKKKKKKKKKKKie Liriano slider in his prime, Ladies and Gentlemen. Four seamer 92-95, two seamer high 80s, and a changeup at 79-81 was the rest of Gibson's repertoire tonight. Gibson was in mid-season form.
     
    Another player who was in mid-season form was Miguel Sano, who punished a Bucholtz breaking ball deeply off the Centerfield wall for a double, and even more importantly made a solid catch in RF and threw a pea that would had thrown the tagging runner out at third if Trevor Plouffe did not bobble the ball.
     
    Back to pitching. One of the greatest mysteries this spring has been Glen Perkins' velocity, so I charted all of his pitches. Here they are:
     
    FB 90, FB 89, FB 91, FB 86, FB 89, SL 78, FB 91, FB 88, SL 78, SL 79, SL 81, FL 89, FB 89, FB 90, SL 81, FB 89.
     
    86-91 mph FB and 78-81 mph SL. This is a good 5-6 mph off where Perkins need to be to be effective. Nevertheless this should be raising more Red Flags to the Twins' brass than there are outside the Kremlin...
     
    Have a few more notes from today, but for the sake of brevity, I will include them in one of the future writeups
  20. Like
    Thrylos got a reaction from jorgenswest for a blog entry, 2016 Twins Spring Training Coverage from Fort Myers. Day 1: The Doubleheader   
    Originally published at The Tenth Inning Stretch
    ----------
     
    Today the Twins had a 7:05 PM game hosting the Boston Red Sox. At 1PM the Twins' AAA and AA teams hosted the equivalent of the Orioles'. I spent the afternoon watching the Twins AA team, before moved to Hammond Stadium in the evening for the nightcap.
     
    I was delighted to see that Tyler Jay was the starter for the AA game. Jay was ranked as the Twins' number 2 prospect in my off-season 2016 rankings and I have to say that he proved me happy with that ranking. He pitched for a full 4 innings and featured 4 pitches: a 93-94 mph FB that topped at 96, an 85-86 mph slider, an 81-83 mph change up and a 77-80 mph curve. This is a very effective pitch mix for him. He has a short arm delivery and hides the ball well. He commands all pitches well and his fastball is definitely his out pitch; sets it up beautifully with the slider and the change up. He throws his curve low and outside the strike zone to make hitters chase it; and they do. At this level. One of the questions about Jay has been the ability to be a started as far as endurance goes. Today he was not frugal with his pitches, which is something that he would have to learn as he matures as a professional.
     
    His Catcher was 25 year old Joe Maloney who the Twins signed as a minor league free agent after an MVP season in the Canadian-American Association Independent League Rockland Boulders. Maloney's problem is that he is not a very good catcher and he showed that today, having a throw sail over the head of the second baseman on a steal attempt and two passed balls. The second passed ball bounced off Maloney's glove to the home plate umpire's hand to his cup, incapacitating the umpire. Twins' legend Tom Kelly had to call balls and strikes behind the pitcher for the next half inning before a replacement umpire relieved him:
     

     
    Another new minor league free agent on display today was Keury De La Cruz. The 24 year old outfielder has one of the longest swings I have seen with an extremely violent back swing. After his first PA, I mumbled that someone will get hurt here, and in the 5th inning, it happened to get the Baltimore catcher's head with that backswing. Some serious coaching needs to happen here. De La Cruz provided a bit of a comic relief sliding feet first about 2 feet to the left of where a routine fly ball fell in the second inning. Will not be surprised in the Twins bite the bullet and cut him soon.
     
    The Twins signed 27 year old RHP Omar Belcomo from the American Association Independent League where he last played for the Wichita Lugnuts, to make 3 starts for the Fort Myers Miracle at the end of their season. Belcomo last played affiliated ball in 2011 for the Tampa Bay Rays single A team at Bowling Green. He is an interesting player to keep an eye on, as he is a poor man's Sam Deduno. He has two pitches: A fastball that goes from 86 to 91, which he can absolutely not command and goes all over the place, including the head of a Baltimore hitter in his second inning of work. His second pitch is a 77-81 mph change up that actually is an above average to a plus pitch, and a pitch that he seems to be able to control.
     
    Raul Fernandez was another of the minor league free agents the Twins signed last off-season. The 25 year old RHP Dominican was converted from Catcher to Pitcher by the Rockies after his first DSL season and spent last season in the White Sox' AA team. Long arm motion with 92-93 mph FB with late pop, an 88 mph cutter/2-seamer and a low 80s change up. Very good ability to mix them and throw them all for strikes and good command. He seemed to confuse batters.
     
    Brian Gilbert seems to get his fastball up a couple ticks, consistently hitting 94 and 95 with a couple of 96 mph. He complemented that with an 85-86 mph slider. Seemed to be effectively wild, but it is the start of the Spring Training. Just 23, drafted by the Twins in the 7th round in 2013; keep your eye open for him.
     
    Yorman Landa was the last pitcher for the AA Twins, fresh from the MLB side of Spring Training. I last saw him pitch a couple seasons ago and he is a different pitcher. He supplemented his excellent high 80s low 90s 2-seamer with a 4-seamer that sit at 93-95 and popped up to 96, but is straight with inconsistent command and control. Straight FBs at 95 and 96 will get hit hard by good AA hitters and that is what happened to him today. His 78-81 mph curve was good. He did not throw a change up today. Definite potential there, but he needs work.
     
    Something to keep in mind: Today watching the Twins' AA pitchers was a Texas Rangers' (who train in AZ) scout. Not sure that anything is going on, but he was there.
     
    Fast forward a few hrs to the Twins' MLB game at Hammond Stadium against the Red Sox.
     
    Kyle Gibson was the starter, and he had things really working for him, including his best pitch, a slider, purely made of filth, dancing at 84-86 mph and striking out Red Sox who were either looking at it with open eyes or swinging and missing wildly. That today was a FranKKKKKKKKKKKKKie Liriano slider in his prime, Ladies and Gentlemen. Four seamer 92-95, two seamer high 80s, and a changeup at 79-81 was the rest of Gibson's repertoire tonight. Gibson was in mid-season form.
     
    Another player who was in mid-season form was Miguel Sano, who punished a Bucholtz breaking ball deeply off the Centerfield wall for a double, and even more importantly made a solid catch in RF and threw a pea that would had thrown the tagging runner out at third if Trevor Plouffe did not bobble the ball.
     
    Back to pitching. One of the greatest mysteries this spring has been Glen Perkins' velocity, so I charted all of his pitches. Here they are:
     
    FB 90, FB 89, FB 91, FB 86, FB 89, SL 78, FB 91, FB 88, SL 78, SL 79, SL 81, FL 89, FB 89, FB 90, SL 81, FB 89.
     
    86-91 mph FB and 78-81 mph SL. This is a good 5-6 mph off where Perkins need to be to be effective. Nevertheless this should be raising more Red Flags to the Twins' brass than there are outside the Kremlin...
     
    Have a few more notes from today, but for the sake of brevity, I will include them in one of the future writeups
  21. Like
    Thrylos got a reaction from wagwan for a blog entry, 2016 Twins offseason top 40 prospects: Summary and Meta Analysis   
    Originally published at The Tenth Inning Stretch
    ---
     
    I am trying something new this year. Instead of summarizing the top 40 Twins' prospects list, I am doing some actual analysis as well, which I believe might be telling for the system.
     
    This is the last segment in this series. You can find the introductory segment in this series, including my criteria for eligibility to be a prospect and the list of the 2015 top 40 players who graduated as prospects or are not in the system, here. Here is my 2015 Twins off-season top 40 prospects list (summary of 1-40) for reference.
    You can find players 36-40 here, players 31-35 here, players 26-30 here, players 21-25 here, players 16-20 here, players 11-15 here, players 6-10 here, and players 1-5 here.
     
     
    Here are the top 40 with position indicated and 2015 rank in parenthesis, along with Estimated Time of Arrival :
     
    1. Jose Berrios RHSP (5), 2016
    2. Tyler Jay (--) LHSP, 2017
    3. Nick Burdi (6) RHRP, 2016
    4. Stephen Gonsalves (13) LHSP, 2018
    5. Lewin Diaz (9) 1B/DH, 2019
    6. JT Chargois (--) RHRP, 2016
    7. Wander Javier (--) SS, 2020+
    8. Jermaine Palacios (36) SS/3B, 2020
    9. Nick Gordon (12) SS, 2019
    10. Mitch Garver (17) C, 2017
    11. Levi Michael (22), 2B, 2016
    12. Mason Melotakis (--), LHRP, 2016
    13. Kohl Stewart RHSP (7), 2017
    14. Travis Harrison (14), OF/1B, 2017
    15. Amaurys Minier (6) OF/1B, 2019
    16. Jake Reed (16) RHRP, 2017
    17. Lewis Thorpe (11) LHSP, 2019
    18. Daniel Palka (--) OF, 2017
    19. Adam Walker (21), OF, 2016
    20. Felix Jorge (29), RHSP, 2018
    21. Rainis Silva (24), C, 2018
    22. Jean Carlos Arias (--), CF, 2020
    23. Engelb Vielma SS (20), 2017
    24. Luis Arraez IF (40), 2019
    25. Ryan Eades RHSP (30), 2017
    26. Lachlan Wells (--), LHSP, 2020
    27. Huascar Ynoa (--), RHSP, 2020
    28. Brusdar Graterol (--), RHSP, 2020+
    29. Brandon Peterson (27), RHRP, 2017
    30. Taylor Rogers (--), LHR/SP, 2016
    31. LaMonte Wade (--), CF, 2018
    32. Kolton Kendrick (--), 1B/DH, 2020+
    33. Chris Paul (--) IF/OF, 2018
    34. Fernardo Romero (37), RHSP, 2019
    35. Yorman Landa (--), RHRP, 2018
    36. Kuo Hua Lo (--), RHRP, 2018
    37. Niko Goodrum (--), CF/IF, 2017
    38. Travis Blankenhorn (--), 3B/1B, 2020
    39. Trey Cabbage (--), IF/OF, 2020+
    40. Emmanuel Morel (--) IF, 2020+
     
     
    Here is a full list of subtractions from the 2014 off-season list (that ranking in parenthesis) :
     
    Graduated: Miguel Sano 3B (1), Jorge Polanco SS (2), Byron Buxton OF (3), Alex Meyer RHP (4), Eddie Rosario OF (8), Max Kepler OF/1B (12)
     
    Traded: Chih-Wei Hu RHP (18), Alexis Tapia RHP (25)
     
    Released: Tyler Kuresa 1B (38)
     
    Retired: Mat Batts LHP (35)
     
    Dropped: Jorge Fernandez C (19), Mike Cederoth RHP (23), Max Murphy OF (26), Stuart Turner C (28) , Aaron Slegers RHP (31), Randy Rosario RHP (32), Zach Larson OF (33),Todd Van Steensen RHP (34), Moises Gomez RHP (39)
     
    For a total of 19 players, so a good 47.5% turnover from last season
     
     
    Here is the list by position:
     
    1. Jose Berrios RHSP (5), 2016
    13. Kohl Stewart RHSP (7), 2017
    20. Felix Jorge (29), RHSP, 2018
    25. Ryan Eades RHSP (30), 2017
    27. Huascar Ynoa (--), RHSP, 2020
    28. Brusdar Graterol (--), RHSP, 2020+
    29. Brandon Peterson (27), RHRP, 2017
    34. Fernardo Romero (37), RHSP, 2019
     
    2. Tyler Jay (--) LHSP, 2017
    4. Stephen Gonsalves (13) LHSP, 2018
    17. Lewis Thorpe (11) LHSP, 2019
    26. Lachlan Wells (--), LHSP, 2020
    30. Taylor Rogers (--), LHR/SP, 2016
     
    3. Nick Burdi (6) RHRP, 2016
    6. JT Chargois (--) RHRP, 2016
    16. Jake Reed (16) RHRP, 2017
    35. Yorman Landa (--), RHRP, 2018
    36. Kuo Hua Lo (--), RHRP, 2018
     
    12. Mason Melotakis (--), LHRP, 2016
     
    10. Mitch Garver (17) C, 2017
    21. Rainis Silva (24), C, 2018
     
    5. Lewin Diaz (9) 1B/DH, 2019
    32. Kolton Kendrick (--), 1B/DH, 2020+
    33. Chris Paul (--) IF/OF, 2018
    38. Travis Blankenhorn (--), 3B/1B, 2020
    39. Trey Cabbage (--), IF/OF, 2020+
     
    11. Levi Michael (22), 2B, 2016
    24. Luis Arraez IF (40), 2019
    40. Emmanuel Morel (--) IF, 2020+
     
    7. Wander Javier (--) SS, 2020+
    8. Jermaine Palacios (36) SS/3B, 2020
    9. Nick Gordon (12) SS, 2019
    23. Engelb Vielma SS (20), 2017
     
    14. Travis Harrison (14), OF/1B, 2017
    15. Amaurys Minier (6) OF/1B, 2019
    18. Daniel Palka (--) OF, 2017
    19. Adam Walker (21), OF, 2016
    22. Jean Carlos Arias (--), CF, 2020
    31. LaMonte Wade (--), CF, 2018
    37. Niko Goodrum (--), CF/IF, 2017
     
    Clearly Catcher and LHRP are the weakest positions as far as quality prospects go. As far as LHRPs, some of the starters in this list, primarily Taylor Rogers and Lachlan Wells, could end up as relievers. As far as catchers go, John Hicks, who is ineligible for this list, will likely be the first one called up if need arises. Stuart Turner, who dropped from the list, is about a season or two away and Carlos Paulino, who did not make this list, can also help this season if needed. Definitely Catcher is a position in need and one the Twins should probably target at some point.
     
    Here is the list broken down by ETA:
     
    1. Jose Berrios RHSP (5), 2016
    3. Nick Burdi (6) RHRP, 2016
    6. JT Chargois (--) RHRP, 2016
    11. Levi Michael (22), 2B, 2016
    12. Mason Melotakis (--), LHRP, 2016
    19. Adam Walker (21), OF, 2016
    30. Taylor Rogers (--), LHR/SP, 2016
     
    2. Tyler Jay (--) LHSP, 2017
    10. Mitch Garver (17) C, 2017
    13. Kohl Stewart RHSP (7), 2017
    14. Travis Harrison (14), OF/1B, 2017
    16. Jake Reed (16) RHRP, 2017
    18. Daniel Palka (--) OF, 2017
    23. Engelb Vielma SS (20), 2017
    25. Ryan Eades RHSP (30), 2017
    29. Brandon Peterson (27), RHRP, 2017
    37. Niko Goodrum (--), CF/IF, 2017
     
    4. Stephen Gonsalves (13) LHSP, 2018
    20. Felix Jorge (29), RHSP, 2018
    21. Rainis Silva (24), C, 2018
    31. LaMonte Wade (--), CF, 2018
    33. Chris Paul (--) IF/OF, 2018
    35. Yorman Landa (--), RHRP, 2018
    36. Kuo Hua Lo (--), RHRP, 2018
     
    5. Lewin Diaz (9) 1B/DH, 2019
    9. Nick Gordon (12) SS, 2019
    17. Lewis Thorpe (11) LHSP, 2019
    15. Amaurys Minier (6) OF/1B, 2019
    24. Luis Arraez IF (40), 2019
    34. Fernardo Romero (37), RHSP, 2019
     
    7. Wander Javier (--) SS, 2020+
    8. Jermaine Palacios (36) SS/3B, 2020
    22. Jean Carlos Arias (--), CF, 2020
    26. Lachlan Wells (--), LHSP, 2020
    27. Huascar Ynoa (--), RHSP, 2020
    28. Brusdar Graterol (--), RHSP, 2020+
    32. Kolton Kendrick (--), 1B/DH, 2020+
    38. Travis Blankenhorn (--), 3B/1B, 2020
    39. Trey Cabbage (--), IF/OF, 2020+
    40. Emmanuel Morel (--) IF, 2020+
     
    Even though six out of the top 12 prospects from the 2014 list have already graduated, it is great to see that there is a good pipeline of top 15 talent MLB-ready (ETA 2016) and close to MLB-ready (ETA 2017) in a variety of positions. The Long Term (ETA 2018, 2019-2020+) is sure to change and some of those players might move up the ranks and might arrive faster than it is thought. It is also certain that additional players not on the list (or even in the organization) today, will be able to be top contributors from 2018-2020. Another impressive and even serendipitous situation is that the Twins' weakest point, the bullpen, likely has the strongest immediate and short term pipeline.
     
    Looking forward to see these prospects play this Spring and throughout the season. It has been some work, but very enjoyable work for me to do these lists.
     
    http://farm6.staticflickr.com/5152/7098789651_02fb66b359_z.jpg
  22. Like
    Thrylos got a reaction from dbminn for a blog entry, 2016 Twins offseason top 40 prospects: Summary and Meta Analysis   
    Originally published at The Tenth Inning Stretch
    ---
     
    I am trying something new this year. Instead of summarizing the top 40 Twins' prospects list, I am doing some actual analysis as well, which I believe might be telling for the system.
     
    This is the last segment in this series. You can find the introductory segment in this series, including my criteria for eligibility to be a prospect and the list of the 2015 top 40 players who graduated as prospects or are not in the system, here. Here is my 2015 Twins off-season top 40 prospects list (summary of 1-40) for reference.
    You can find players 36-40 here, players 31-35 here, players 26-30 here, players 21-25 here, players 16-20 here, players 11-15 here, players 6-10 here, and players 1-5 here.
     
     
    Here are the top 40 with position indicated and 2015 rank in parenthesis, along with Estimated Time of Arrival :
     
    1. Jose Berrios RHSP (5), 2016
    2. Tyler Jay (--) LHSP, 2017
    3. Nick Burdi (6) RHRP, 2016
    4. Stephen Gonsalves (13) LHSP, 2018
    5. Lewin Diaz (9) 1B/DH, 2019
    6. JT Chargois (--) RHRP, 2016
    7. Wander Javier (--) SS, 2020+
    8. Jermaine Palacios (36) SS/3B, 2020
    9. Nick Gordon (12) SS, 2019
    10. Mitch Garver (17) C, 2017
    11. Levi Michael (22), 2B, 2016
    12. Mason Melotakis (--), LHRP, 2016
    13. Kohl Stewart RHSP (7), 2017
    14. Travis Harrison (14), OF/1B, 2017
    15. Amaurys Minier (6) OF/1B, 2019
    16. Jake Reed (16) RHRP, 2017
    17. Lewis Thorpe (11) LHSP, 2019
    18. Daniel Palka (--) OF, 2017
    19. Adam Walker (21), OF, 2016
    20. Felix Jorge (29), RHSP, 2018
    21. Rainis Silva (24), C, 2018
    22. Jean Carlos Arias (--), CF, 2020
    23. Engelb Vielma SS (20), 2017
    24. Luis Arraez IF (40), 2019
    25. Ryan Eades RHSP (30), 2017
    26. Lachlan Wells (--), LHSP, 2020
    27. Huascar Ynoa (--), RHSP, 2020
    28. Brusdar Graterol (--), RHSP, 2020+
    29. Brandon Peterson (27), RHRP, 2017
    30. Taylor Rogers (--), LHR/SP, 2016
    31. LaMonte Wade (--), CF, 2018
    32. Kolton Kendrick (--), 1B/DH, 2020+
    33. Chris Paul (--) IF/OF, 2018
    34. Fernardo Romero (37), RHSP, 2019
    35. Yorman Landa (--), RHRP, 2018
    36. Kuo Hua Lo (--), RHRP, 2018
    37. Niko Goodrum (--), CF/IF, 2017
    38. Travis Blankenhorn (--), 3B/1B, 2020
    39. Trey Cabbage (--), IF/OF, 2020+
    40. Emmanuel Morel (--) IF, 2020+
     
     
    Here is a full list of subtractions from the 2014 off-season list (that ranking in parenthesis) :
     
    Graduated: Miguel Sano 3B (1), Jorge Polanco SS (2), Byron Buxton OF (3), Alex Meyer RHP (4), Eddie Rosario OF (8), Max Kepler OF/1B (12)
     
    Traded: Chih-Wei Hu RHP (18), Alexis Tapia RHP (25)
     
    Released: Tyler Kuresa 1B (38)
     
    Retired: Mat Batts LHP (35)
     
    Dropped: Jorge Fernandez C (19), Mike Cederoth RHP (23), Max Murphy OF (26), Stuart Turner C (28) , Aaron Slegers RHP (31), Randy Rosario RHP (32), Zach Larson OF (33),Todd Van Steensen RHP (34), Moises Gomez RHP (39)
     
    For a total of 19 players, so a good 47.5% turnover from last season
     
     
    Here is the list by position:
     
    1. Jose Berrios RHSP (5), 2016
    13. Kohl Stewart RHSP (7), 2017
    20. Felix Jorge (29), RHSP, 2018
    25. Ryan Eades RHSP (30), 2017
    27. Huascar Ynoa (--), RHSP, 2020
    28. Brusdar Graterol (--), RHSP, 2020+
    29. Brandon Peterson (27), RHRP, 2017
    34. Fernardo Romero (37), RHSP, 2019
     
    2. Tyler Jay (--) LHSP, 2017
    4. Stephen Gonsalves (13) LHSP, 2018
    17. Lewis Thorpe (11) LHSP, 2019
    26. Lachlan Wells (--), LHSP, 2020
    30. Taylor Rogers (--), LHR/SP, 2016
     
    3. Nick Burdi (6) RHRP, 2016
    6. JT Chargois (--) RHRP, 2016
    16. Jake Reed (16) RHRP, 2017
    35. Yorman Landa (--), RHRP, 2018
    36. Kuo Hua Lo (--), RHRP, 2018
     
    12. Mason Melotakis (--), LHRP, 2016
     
    10. Mitch Garver (17) C, 2017
    21. Rainis Silva (24), C, 2018
     
    5. Lewin Diaz (9) 1B/DH, 2019
    32. Kolton Kendrick (--), 1B/DH, 2020+
    33. Chris Paul (--) IF/OF, 2018
    38. Travis Blankenhorn (--), 3B/1B, 2020
    39. Trey Cabbage (--), IF/OF, 2020+
     
    11. Levi Michael (22), 2B, 2016
    24. Luis Arraez IF (40), 2019
    40. Emmanuel Morel (--) IF, 2020+
     
    7. Wander Javier (--) SS, 2020+
    8. Jermaine Palacios (36) SS/3B, 2020
    9. Nick Gordon (12) SS, 2019
    23. Engelb Vielma SS (20), 2017
     
    14. Travis Harrison (14), OF/1B, 2017
    15. Amaurys Minier (6) OF/1B, 2019
    18. Daniel Palka (--) OF, 2017
    19. Adam Walker (21), OF, 2016
    22. Jean Carlos Arias (--), CF, 2020
    31. LaMonte Wade (--), CF, 2018
    37. Niko Goodrum (--), CF/IF, 2017
     
    Clearly Catcher and LHRP are the weakest positions as far as quality prospects go. As far as LHRPs, some of the starters in this list, primarily Taylor Rogers and Lachlan Wells, could end up as relievers. As far as catchers go, John Hicks, who is ineligible for this list, will likely be the first one called up if need arises. Stuart Turner, who dropped from the list, is about a season or two away and Carlos Paulino, who did not make this list, can also help this season if needed. Definitely Catcher is a position in need and one the Twins should probably target at some point.
     
    Here is the list broken down by ETA:
     
    1. Jose Berrios RHSP (5), 2016
    3. Nick Burdi (6) RHRP, 2016
    6. JT Chargois (--) RHRP, 2016
    11. Levi Michael (22), 2B, 2016
    12. Mason Melotakis (--), LHRP, 2016
    19. Adam Walker (21), OF, 2016
    30. Taylor Rogers (--), LHR/SP, 2016
     
    2. Tyler Jay (--) LHSP, 2017
    10. Mitch Garver (17) C, 2017
    13. Kohl Stewart RHSP (7), 2017
    14. Travis Harrison (14), OF/1B, 2017
    16. Jake Reed (16) RHRP, 2017
    18. Daniel Palka (--) OF, 2017
    23. Engelb Vielma SS (20), 2017
    25. Ryan Eades RHSP (30), 2017
    29. Brandon Peterson (27), RHRP, 2017
    37. Niko Goodrum (--), CF/IF, 2017
     
    4. Stephen Gonsalves (13) LHSP, 2018
    20. Felix Jorge (29), RHSP, 2018
    21. Rainis Silva (24), C, 2018
    31. LaMonte Wade (--), CF, 2018
    33. Chris Paul (--) IF/OF, 2018
    35. Yorman Landa (--), RHRP, 2018
    36. Kuo Hua Lo (--), RHRP, 2018
     
    5. Lewin Diaz (9) 1B/DH, 2019
    9. Nick Gordon (12) SS, 2019
    17. Lewis Thorpe (11) LHSP, 2019
    15. Amaurys Minier (6) OF/1B, 2019
    24. Luis Arraez IF (40), 2019
    34. Fernardo Romero (37), RHSP, 2019
     
    7. Wander Javier (--) SS, 2020+
    8. Jermaine Palacios (36) SS/3B, 2020
    22. Jean Carlos Arias (--), CF, 2020
    26. Lachlan Wells (--), LHSP, 2020
    27. Huascar Ynoa (--), RHSP, 2020
    28. Brusdar Graterol (--), RHSP, 2020+
    32. Kolton Kendrick (--), 1B/DH, 2020+
    38. Travis Blankenhorn (--), 3B/1B, 2020
    39. Trey Cabbage (--), IF/OF, 2020+
    40. Emmanuel Morel (--) IF, 2020+
     
    Even though six out of the top 12 prospects from the 2014 list have already graduated, it is great to see that there is a good pipeline of top 15 talent MLB-ready (ETA 2016) and close to MLB-ready (ETA 2017) in a variety of positions. The Long Term (ETA 2018, 2019-2020+) is sure to change and some of those players might move up the ranks and might arrive faster than it is thought. It is also certain that additional players not on the list (or even in the organization) today, will be able to be top contributors from 2018-2020. Another impressive and even serendipitous situation is that the Twins' weakest point, the bullpen, likely has the strongest immediate and short term pipeline.
     
    Looking forward to see these prospects play this Spring and throughout the season. It has been some work, but very enjoyable work for me to do these lists.
     
    http://farm6.staticflickr.com/5152/7098789651_02fb66b359_z.jpg
  23. Like
    Thrylos got a reaction from Willihammer for a blog entry, 2016 Twins off-season top 40 prospects list: 36-40   
    Originally published at The Tenth Inning Stretch
    ----
     
    You can find the introductory segment in this series, including my criteria for eligibility to be a prospect and the list of the 2015 top 40 players who graduated as prospects or are not in the system, here. Here is my 2015 Twins off-season top 40 prospects list (summary of 1-40) for reference.
     
    Without further ado, here is the 2016 countdown of prospects, with their ranking in the 2015 list in parenthesis :
     
    40. Emmanuel Morel (--)
    DOB: 5/4/1997; Age: 18
    Positions: SS/2B
    Bats: R, Throws: R
    Height: 5'10", Weight: 150 lbs
    Acquired: International Free Agent 4/8/2013
    Professional Experience: 2; Highest level: Rookie/DSL (2014, 2015)
     
    Every season in this prospect list, I include prospects who are traditionally bypassed by many (because they have not played games in the US) and ended up picked up by the mainstream media a season or two afterwards. Last season it was Jermaine Palacios at 36; This season is Emmanuel Morel at 40, who has already 2 professional seasons under his belt before his 19th birthday. In 2015 he alternated games between the 2 middle infield positions with 17 year old Yeltsin Encarnacion for the Dominican Summer League Twins. In a league dominated by pitchers he hit .282/.428/.370 (.798 OPS), had 51 singles, 6 doubles, 5 triples in 230 plate appearances. He struck out 43 times and walked 46 times. He also stole 24 bases in 35 attempts. In other words, he reached base 43% of the time, walking more than striking out, he attempted a stole base in about 41% of his opportunities and he was successful 69% of the time. This is pretty impressive at any level of professional ball at any age in the twenty first century. You cannot teach plate selectivity and you have to have the guts to be aggressive. If Morel continues those traits when he will cross the Tropic of Cancer, and he shows signs of reliability with the glove, the Twins will have another good middle infield prospect from Latin America in their pipeline.
     
    Likely 2016 path: Will start the season in Extended Spring Training, get used to live in the US in the Twins' Fort Myers Complex and join the Gulf Coast League Twins when they start playing games after the 2016 draft
     
    Ceiling/Floor: Too early to tell
     
    39. Trey Cabbage (--)
     
     
    DOB: 5/3/1997; Age: 18
    Positions: SS/3B/LF/RF
    Bats: L, Throws: R
    Height: 6' 3", Weight: 190 lbs
    Acquired: 4th Round Draft Pick 2015
    Professional Experience: 1; Highest level: Rookie/GCL (2015)
     
    Trey Cabbage was the Twins' fourth round draft pick in the past draft from Grainger (TN) High School and is a day older from the number 40 prospect, Emmanuel Morel. Mostly a shortstop in High School, he moved all over the field in his first pro season with the Gulf Coast League. He was projected to play third base, but it will still be a work in progress, because his first try in the position (6 errors in 21 games) was not as smooth as hoped. His transition to the wooden bat has been painful as well, hitting .252/.302/.269 with only 2 doubles as extra base hits, 7 walks and 37 strikeouts in 129 PAs. Stole one base and was caught 5 times. A small sample size ray of hope: He hit He hit .350/.435/.350 overall in 20 ABs against LHPs and finished the season .321/.310/.321 in 28 August ABs. The transition to the wooden bat is not a small feat for an 18 year old and Cabbage does get the benefit of the double. Will likely work several positions in the low minor leagues to find a position that he is a good fit defensively. Before the draft he was touted as one of the "sweetest" left hand swings, since you know who, but still have to see this. Cabbage was a multi-sport player (Football and Basketball) and also pitched in High School, and some focus and taking time off this winter might help him a lot.
     
    Likely 2016 path: Starting in Extended Spring Training and focusing of figuring out which position might be the best fit for him and then playing there in the GCL.
     
     
     
     
     
     
    38. Travis Blankenhorn (--)
    DOB: 8/3/1996; Age: 19
    Positions: 3B/1B
    Bats: L, Throws: R
    Height: 6' 1", Weight: 195 lbs
    Acquired: 3th Round Draft Pick 2015
    Professional Experience: 1; Highest level: Rookie/Elizabethton (2015)
     
    Travis Blakenhorn, was drafted in the third round of the 2015 draft from Pottstown (PA) High School, and like Trey Cabbage, is a left hitting third baseman who started the season and his professional career in the GCL. Unlike Cabbage he has some success with the bat, .245/.362/.408, 4 doubles, 2 triples, 7 walks and 11 strikeouts in 58 PAs, allowing the Twins to move him up a level at Elizabethton in the middle of July. In Elizabethton, he started on fire hitting .321/.387/.482 for July, and then leveled off, ending up the season in the Appalachian League hitting .243/.306/.326 with 3 doubles, 3 HRs, 11 BBs and 32 Ks in 158 PAs. Was effectively neutralized by LHP (.172/.250/.310,) but, again, the transition from aluminum to wood is not an easy one. Blakenhorn projects as a power hitter and he flashed some. Has a solid powerful build that would allow him to play at either infield corner, but his strong arm has him a better fit at third or at a corner outfield position. Blakenhorn picked up some Alex Gordon comparisons, but that is a bit of reaching at this point. Fellow Twins' prospects, Travis Harrison and the gentleman whose profile follows, might be better comparables for now...
     
    Likely 2016 path: Starting at Extended Spring Training, then the starting third baseman in Elizabethton as soon as Appalachian League play starts in June.
     
     
    37. Niko Goodrum (--)
     
    DOB: 2/28/1992; Age: 23
    Positions: 3B/SS/CF
    Bats: S, Throws: R
    Height: 6' 3", Weight: 198 lbs
    Acquired: 2nd Round Draft Pick 2010
    Professional Experience: 6; Highest level: AA (2015)
     
    I have to admit, Niko Goodrum frustrates me. Has a ton of potential and never put it together in six professional seasons. As a matter of fact, he has been in an out in my top 40 prospect list for the last 3 years. Why is he in again? In a second, bit of history first: Niko Goodrum was drafted 71nd overall in the 2010 draft (a spot after Braves', and now Angels', Andrelton Simmons who has 4 seasons in the majors and a couple gold gloves.) That was the Alex Wimmers draft. Goodrum's career slash line is .244/.337/.357 and he has not been deviating by more that 0.30 or so in any of its components in his six seasons as a pro (other than his short first season of .414 OPS.) In other words he has been pretty average, or below average, at any level, which does not a good prospect make. So why is he back here again? Three reasons:

    When he moved to Chatanooga in the middle of the season, he improved his approach as a hitter. He hit .244/.332/.392 with 6 doubles, 5 triples, 5 HRs, 28 BBs, and 51 K in 238 PAs, in a league where .700 OPS is the average.
    Sustained improvement in base running and base stealing and considerable jump in power: Goodrum stole 20, 35 and 29 bases the last 3 seasons. He was 18 for 22 in Chatanooga this season. In addition, he hit a career high 9 HRs, more than doubling his previous best (4).
    He might have actually found a position he can play and be above average. He was drafted as a shortstop, and played most of his first 3 seasons there very erratically. He was transferred to third base the last 3 seasons with similar results. However, Doug Mientkiewitz and serendipity (not many OFs in the organization) had him at Centerfield for 15 games, in which he was a good centerfielder and better with the bat when played there. Maybe the game slowed down enough at OF for him.

    So there is enough potential and intrigue to believer that Niko Goodrum might actually make a major league centerfielder some day, if the Twins continue using him there, which they should. So Goodrum makes the list as an outfielder.
     
    Likely 2016 path: Depending on where Byron Buxton ends up, likely the starting Centerfielder for Chatanooga.
     
    36. Kuo Hua Lo (--)
    DOB: 10/28/1992; Age: 23
    Positions: RHP
    Bats: R, Throws: R
    Height: 5' 10", Weight: 195 lbs
    Acquired: International Free Agent 6/10/2011
    Professional Experience: 4; Highest level: Rookie/Elizabethton (2013-2015)
     
    Lo was signed by the Twins as an International Free Agent from Taiwan at age 18, 4 seasons ago and has shown steady improvement to be regarded as a top 40 prospect, with a near breakout 2015 season. He pitched 31.3 innings with a 1.44 ERA (2.75 FIP) allowing 15 hits, 8 walks (0.734 WHIP) and had 43 strikeouts (12.4 K/9 and 36.4 K%) and was the primary closer for Elizabethton. On the downside he was a year and a tad older than the league average, his BABIP was .213, and he was threepeating Elizabethton, but BABIP does not affect the strikeouts, he made the transition from Taiwan to the US as a teenager and that 36.4% K is impressive at any level, making me think that he actually got "it". What is "it"? A second above average pitch. Lo has had an above average to plus fastball with good downward movement, which can reach 94 mph or so, but the rest of his repertoire was hit and miss. Reports out of Elizabethton have him throwing a "filthy" off-speed pitch, which sounds like an above average change up or slurve, but regardless, it is apparently effective. Still have to see it in person, so I reserve judgement, but there is a lot of potential there to worth inclusion in this list.
     
    Likely 2016 path: Cedar Rapids Kernels' bullpen and co-closer
     
    http://farm6.staticflickr.com/5152/7098789651_02fb66b359_z.jpg
  24. Like
    Thrylos got a reaction from TNTwinsFan for a blog entry, The Twins Sign a Centerfielder   
    Originally published at The Tenth Inning Stretch
    ------
     
    After the Twins traded Aaron Hicks to the New York Yankees for JR Murphy, there was an assumption that Byron Buxton was de facto handed the Centerfield job to start the season. For the ones who have seen Buxton's close personal battles with breaking balls, this was not a welcome sign. Additionally, Eddie Rosario, has played Centerfield for most of his career, and there was some talk that Danny Santana, who has no business playing the OF, might be tested as a potential backup, or even starter, in case Byron Buxton is still swatting at curveballs in the dirt as if the were the State Bird of Minnesota.
     
    Today, thankfully, the Twins took one step in amending those crazy thoughts, by signing Joe Benson to minor league deal. Yes, that Joe Benson, the Twins' second round draft pick in 2006, who put up a .259/.343/.538 slash line with 27 HRs and 19 SBs in 2010 between New Britain and Fort Myers and exclamated it with great body defying defense in the Centerfield. In 2011 he was hitting .285/.388/.495 in June in New Britain with 16 HRs and 13 SBs, when he had a left knee surgery (meniscus) and was not the same, even though he was awarded with a September callup to the Twins. In 2012 he broke his hamate (wrist) in May, which he surgically repaired and had an additional surgery in August, to clean up debris from his previous surgery. After that he went downhill with the bat. I saw him in 2013 play for Rochester and he was not the same guy. You can read that here, along with a very characteristic picture of him. That season he fought additional soreness to that left wrist and was sidelined for a month and a half with a pulled groin.
     
    Benson was signed with Miami before the 2014 season where he put a respectable .264/.364/.410, 10 HRs and 15 SB in 124 games, and more importantly finished his season healthy. In 2015 he signed with the Braves were he was released after 41 games in AAA Gwinnett where he hit .246/.346/.331. After 5 games in the Independent Leagues, he was picked up by the Mets who had him be Binghamton's (AA) starting Centerfielder. He hit .250/.355/.380 in 54 games and made plays like this:
     

    Benson is a no-risk/high reward signing and a potential great story to watch while he will be fighting for a job with the Twins in Spring Training of 2016. He needs to relax and have fun out there again, like he did in 2010 and 2011, instead of pressing himself to perform at his high level of expectations and get disappointed. That catch up there made a couple of months ago, makes me think that he can do it and finally the Twins' fans will see what made him twice a top 100 baseball prospect.
  25. Like
    Thrylos got a reaction from rukavina for a blog entry, Assessing the Twins' Risks in the 2015 Rule 5 Draft: Analyzing Each of their 40 Eligible Unprotected Players   
    Originally published at The Tenth Inning Stretch
    ------
     
     
    The Twins announced that they have added LHP Taylor Rogers, RHP JT Chargois, OF Adam Brett Walker, LHP Randy Rosario, RHP Yorman Landa, LHP Pat Dean, and LHP Mason Melotakis to their 40-man roster. This leaves 41 players unprotected.
    Here is a list of each of the unprotected players along with an risk analysis with the possibility that each player will get selected by another team:
     
    RHP Jose Abreu
    Age: 23
    Height: 5' 11"
    Weight: 170 lb
    Highest Level: Rookie/Elizabethton
    Acquired: Dominican Free Agent
    2015 Prospect Rank: NR; 23th in 2014
    Last season: 17 G, 26.2 IP, 6.8 K/9, 4.4 BB/9, 3.71 ERA, 4.68 FIP, 1.39 WHIP, .272 BABIP
    Summary: Very raw player with control and command issues, but extremely tantalizing fastball with a lot of movement. Secondary pitches are work in progress and has declined last season after missing 2014 with Tommy John surgery. Interesting to see how he will bounce back. Highly Unlikely to be taken in the draft
    Risk %: 5%
     
     
    RHP Jason Adam
    Age: 24
    Height: 6' 4"
    Weight: 225 lb
    Highest Level: AAA
    Acquired: Traded from the Kansas for Josh Willingham in 2014
    2015 Prospect Rank: NR
    Last season: Did not play/recovering from surgery 2014 AAA/AA: 29 G, 19 GS, 120.1 IP, 7.7 K/9, 2.7 BB/9, 4.71 ERA, 3.68 FIP, 1.41 WHIP, .345 BABIP
    Summary: Was the Royals' 9th prospect according to Baseball America when traded. Mid 90s plus fastball complemented with an above average curve and works in progress slider and changeup. Starter potential. Unlikely to be taken in the draft because of the risk of the postsurgery unknown, but definitely has upside
    Risk %: 30%
     
    RHP Nick Anderson
    Age: 25
    Height: 6' 5"
    Weight: 195 lb
    Highest Level: A
    Acquired: Signed as a Free Agent from Independent Leagues in 2015
    2015 Prospect Rank: NR
    Last season (A): 9 G, 0 GS, 12 IP, 9 K/9, 0 BB/9, 0.75 ERA, 2.73 FIP, 0.83 WHIP, .1945 BABIP
    Summary: Minnesotan. Recent Independent League signing. 97 mph Fastball, but 2 years too old for the league and not too great secondary stuff. Definitely a project. Was there for the taking by any team and was not. Unlikely that he would be taken in the draft, unless someone sees him as a MLB-level project
    Risk %: 15%
     
    RHP Luke Bard
    Age: 25
    Height: 6' 3"
    Weight: 195 lb
    Highest Level: A+
    Acquired: Drafted by the Twins in the 1st round (42 overall) in 2012
    2015 Prospect Rank: NR
    Last season (A): 28 G, 0 GS, 52.1 IP, 8.1 K/9, 2.6 BB/9, 2.41 ERA, 2.99 FIP, 1.15 WHIP, .303 BABIP
    Summary: Once (2012) the Twins' 10th best prospect according to Baseball America. One of the many relievers the Twins drafted in high rounds with the hope to turn into starters and ended up having Tommy John surgery. Bard was out all 2014 recoving. But has regressed in every level previously. Last season he was adequate at A ball, but 2 years older than the average player there. So far a dissapointment, and not sure that there will be any takers.
    Risk %: 10%
     
     
    RHP DJ Baxendale
    Age: 24
    Height: 6' 2"
    Weight: 190 lb
    Highest Level: AA
    Acquired: Drafted by the Twins in the 10th round in 2012
    2015 Prospect Rank: NR; highest: 15th in 2014 offseason.
    Last season (AA) : 23 G, 21 GS, 118.1 IP, 7 K/9, 3 BB/9, 3.80 ERA, 3.69 FIP, 1.40 WHIP, .317 BABIP
    Summary: Baxendale is all about Command and Control. If that works, he is great, if it does not, he is not. Repeated AA this season at an age a bit younger than average. His fastball has been hittable by more advanced hitters, and this has been his main problem. Cannot make it as a junk ball righty. Lots of potential there, and has some history as a reliever, but I don't think that it is enough for anyone to spend a 25 man roster spot on him.
    Risk %: 30%
     
     
    RHP Omar Bencomo
    Age: 26
    Height: 6' 1"
    Weight: 170 lb
    Highest Level: A+
    Acquired: Signed as a Free Agent from Independent Leagues in 2015
    2015 Prospect Rank: NR
    Last season (A+) : 3 G, 3 GS, 18 IP, 2.5 K/9, 2.5 BB/9, 1.50 ERA, 3.61 FIP, 0.90 WHIP, .196 BABIP
    Summary: Another one of the Twins' Independent League signings. Started 3 games at a 26 year old at Fort Myers. Organizational depth and more of a candidate for release than a risk to be drafted
    Risk %: 5%
     
    OF Edgar Corcino
    Age: 23
    Height: 6' 1"
    Weight: 210 lb
    Highest Level: A
    Acquired: Signed as a Free Agent from Independent Leagues in 2014
    2015 Prospect Rank: NR
    Last season (A) : .273/.340/.376; 373 PA, 4 HR, 9 SB, 34 BB, 91 K.
    Summary: Yet another one of the Twins' Independent League signings. Started 63 games as a RF and 17 as a CF for Cedar Rapids. Not a prospect and not MLB-ready
    Risk %: 15%
     
     
    RHP Sam Gibbons
    Age: 21
    Height: 6' 4"
    Weight: 190 lb
    Highest Level: A
    Acquired: Signed as an International Free Agent from Australia in 2011
    2015 Prospect Rank: NR
    Last season (A) : 15 G, 15 GS, 90.1 IP, 6.8 K/9, 2.3 BB/9, 2.89 ERA, 3.14 FIP, 1.185 WHIP, .196 BABIP
    Summary: Gibbons has been improving each season and jumping a level a season. High A ready, but not MLB-ready. Little risk of being taken in the MLB portion of the draft, might want to protect him in the minor league portion of the draft.
    Risk %: 25%
     
    RHP Miguel Gonzalez
    Age: 21
    Height: 6' 1"
    Weight: 180 lb
    Highest Level: Rookie (GCL)
    Acquired: Signed as an International Free Agent from Dominican Republic in 2011
    2015 Prospect Rank: NR
    Last season (Rookie/GCL) : 15 G, 3 GS, 39.2 IP, 9.1 K/9, 1.6 BB/9, 1.59 ERA, 2.12 FIP, 0.981 WHIP, .271 BABIP
    Summary: Third time is the charm, since threepeating the GCL, Gonzalez have found himself, by improving his mechanics and control. Still very young. Little risk of being taken in the MLB portion of the draft, might want to protect him in the minor league portion of the draft.
    Risk %: 15%
     
     
    IF Niko Goodrum
    Age: 23
    Height: 6' 3"
    Weight: 167 lb
    Highest Level: AA
    Acquired: Drafted by the Twins in the 2nd round of 2010
    2015 Prospect Rank: NR; 27th in 2014
    Last season (AA) : .244/.332/.392; 238 PA, 5 HR, 18 SB, 28 BB, 51 K.
    Summary: Goodrum is still young, but the expectations for the former second round draft pick have been higher than his performance so far. Declining performance at 3B, where he switch from SS, but adding CF to his repertoir and seeing more (and better defensively) games at SS in 2015. Someone might pick him up as a utility player/PR, but he is not ready to perform with his bat.
    Risk %: 35%
     
    1B Bryan Haar
    Age: 25
    Height: 6' 3"
    Weight: 215 lb
    Highest Level: A+
    Acquired: Drafted by the Twins in the 34th round of 2012
    2015 Prospect Rank: NR.
    Last season (A+) : .249/.317/.323; 284 PA, 1 HR, 1 SB, 21 BB, 61 K.
    Summary: Organizational depth at this point, and as a 25 year old in high A ball, he is more of a candidate to be cut than drafted.
    Risk %: 5%
     
    OF Travis Harrison
    Age: 23
    Height: 6' 1"
    Weight: 215 lb
    Highest Level: AA
    Acquired: Drafted by the Twins in the 1st round (50th overall) of 2011
    2015 Prospect Rank: 14th
    Last season (AA) : .240/.363/.356; 479 PA, 5 HR, 3 SB, 65 BB, 102 K.
    Summary: Harrison has been taken a step up in level every year in his professional career, but also has been taking a step back in performance. Last season was his worst so far as a pro. Still more than 2 years young in AA, he is in the top prospect conversation and he might be a season or two away from a breakthrough; however, he is not major league ready at this point and I cannot see someone drafting him, but the potential is there.
    Risk %: 40%
     
     
    1B DJ Hicks
    Age: 25
    Height: 6' 5"
    Weight: 245 lb
    Highest Level: AA
    Acquired: Drafted by the Twins in the 17th round of 2012
    2015 Prospect Rank:NR, 2014: 24th
    Last season (AA) : .227/.320/.351; 259 PA, 6 HR, 1 SB, 32 BB, 66 K.
    Summary: Hicks' strongest tool is his power, and he has seen a drastic decline as he has been climbing minor league levels, something that he did with regularity. Bothered with injuries this season. It is unlikely that he will be drafted, he needs another good year to be MLB-ready.
    Risk %: 25%
     
    LHP David Hurlbut
    Age: 25
    Height: 6' 3"
    Weight: 221 lb
    Highest Level: AAA (one game)
    Acquired: Drafted by the Twins in the 28th round of 2011
    2015 Prospect Rank: NR
    Last season (A+/AA/AAA) : 20 G, 19 GS, 119 IP, 5.3 K/9, 2.9 BB/9, 3.78 ERA, 3.67 FIP, 1.333 WHIP, .311 BABIP
    Summary: Hurlbut had a decent AA season, he is left-handed and a pitch to contact guy. Someone might think that converting him to a reliever might improve his numbers. As with any lefty, there are always some possibilities that someone will pull the trigger, but there are better options out there.
    Risk %: 45%
     
    RHP Cole Johnson
    Age: 27
    Height: 6' 3"
    Weight: 200 lb
    Highest Level: AAA
    Acquired: Drafted by the Twins in the 44th round of 2011
    2015 Prospect Rank: NR
    Last season (A+/AA/AAA) : 35 G, 0 GS, 52 IP, 8.3 K/9, 3.5 BB/9, 3.18 ERA, 3.66 FIP, 1.404 WHIP, .331 BABIP
    Summary: Cole Johnson is MLB-ready. Heavy singer sitting at 89-92, good slider. Command of his fastball is crucial. Tale of 2 places season, better at AA than AAA. Might be due to the fact of game calling by catchers at AAA as well. Can be in a major league pen right now.
    Risk %: 70%
     
    RHP Zack Jones
    Age: 24
    Height: 6' 1"
    Weight: 185 lb
    Highest Level: AA
    Acquired: Drafted by the Twins in the 4th round of 2012
    2015 Prospect Rank: NR; 2014: 19th
    Last season (A+/AA) :45 G, 0 GS, 51.2 IP, 11.8 K/9, 4.9 BB/9, 4.53 ERA, 3.32 FIP, 1.277 WHIP, .288 BABIP
    Summary: Zach Jones is a fireballer with a major league 99 mph fastball, but with iffy control due to his mechanics (which have been the source of nagging injuries,) and an average slider that sometimes is much better than average, but it is an inconsistent pitch. Much better performance at Fort Myers than at Chatanooga. Still can strike people out and non contenders with pitching coaches who would love a challenge might wink at that heater.
    Risk %: 75%
     
    RHP Felix Jorge
    Age: 21
    Height: 6' 2"
    Weight: 170 lb
    Highest Level: A
    Acquired: Signed as an International Free Agent from Dominican Republic
    2015 Prospect Rank: 29th
    Last season (A) :23 G, 22 GS, 142 IP, 7.2 K/9, 2 BB/9, 2.79 ERA, 3.54 FIP, 1.056 WHIP, .267 BABIP
    Summary: Jorge has 4 pitches that can be plus at different times. He just has not put it all together. Second time at Cedar Rapids (still at an age younger than league average) was better. Fastball used to live around 95 earlier in his career, but endurance had been an issue. This kid has a lot of potential. He is not major league ready by any means, but the Twins are betting nobody pulls a Santana on them. However someone might.
    Risk %: 50%
     
    OF Marcus Knecht
    Age: 25
    Height: 6' 1"
    Weight: 200 lb
    Highest Level: AA
    Acquired: Signed as a Minor League free agent in 2015
    2015 Prospect Rank:NR
    Last season (A+/AA) : .221/.320/.310; 465 PA, 2 HR, 15 SB, 51 BB, 103 K.
    Summary: The definition of organization depth. Not sure why the Twins re-signed him. Cannot see a team taking a chance for any reason
    Risk %: 2%
     
    LHP Brett Lee
    Age: 25
    Height: 6' 4"
    Weight: 206 lb
    Highest Level: AA
    Acquired: Drafted by the Twins in the 10th round of 2011
    2015 Prospect Rank: N/A
    Last season (A+/A) :22 G, 22 GS, 134 IP, 4.4 K/9, 2.8 BB/9, 3.16 ERA, 3.62 FIP, 1.239 WHIP, .277 BABIP
    Summary: Even though Lee posted before average numbers, his stuff is pretty average, other than pitching to contact, which is his bread and butter. Very low strikeout and walk numbers, so his success (or lack of) would have to depend on his ability to induce ground balls. And he is not ready for the majors at this point. But he is a living and breathing lefty. On the other hand, there are better option for those as well...
    Risk %: 30%
     
    RHP Kuo-Hua Lo
    Age: 22
    Height: 5'10"
    Weight: 195lb
    Highest Level: Rookie (Elizabethton)
    Acquired: Signed as an International Free Agent from Taiwan
    2015 Prospect Rank: N/A
    Last season (Rookie) :19 G, 0 GS, 31.1 IP, 12.4 K/9, 2.3 BB/9, 1.44 ERA, 2.75 FIP, 0.734 WHIP, .213 BABIP
    Summary: Lo repeated the Appalachian League in his fourth season with the Twins and had remarkable success closing games. However he is 2 years older than the league average player and has faced players who grabbed a wooden bad for the first time in their lives. Might get himself into prospect conversations, but he is not close to being Major League ready
    Risk %: 10%
     
    C Joe Maloney
    Age: 25
    Height: 6' 2"
    Weight: 190 lb
    Highest Level: A+ (in 2013)
    Acquired: Signed as an Independent League free agent this off-season
    2015 Prospect Rank:NR
    Last season (IL) : .337/.432/.559; 433 PA, 14 HR, 18 SB, 57 BB, 106 K.
    Summary: Intriguing IL numbers last season, so the Twins took a chance on him. More about him here. Not the kind of player you draft on Rule 5 draft.
    Risk %: 5%
     
    IF Aderlin Mejia
    Age: 23
    Height: 5'11"
    Weight: 170lb
    Highest Level: AA
    Acquired: Signed as an International Free Agent for the Dominican Republic
    2015 Prospect Rank:NR
    Last season (A+/AA) : .231/.313/.285; 305 PA, 1 HR, 7 SB, 34 BB, 37 K.
    Summary: Had some flashes in the past, but last season was his fourth season that he spent at least some part at Fort Myers. He is a fan favorite there, but a utility player. More of a release than a draft candidate.
    Risk %: 5%
     
    SS Heiker Meneses
    Age: 24
    Height: 5'9"
    Weight: 200lb
    Highest Level: AAA (2014)
    Acquired: Signed as a Minor League Free Agent in 2015
    2015 Prospect Rank:NR
    Last season (AA) : .259/.317/.300; 386 PA, 0 HR, 15 SB, 24 BB, 72 K.
    Summary: Re-signed by the Twins as a minor league free agent again this off-season. More about him here. Definitely there is some intrigue and potential, but not enough to get drafted
    Risk %: 25%
     
    2B Levi Michael
    Age: 24
    Height: 5'10"
    Weight: 180lb
    Highest Level: AA
    Acquired: Drafted by the Twins in the 1st round (30th overall) of 2011
    2015 Prospect Rank: 22nd
    Last season (AA) : .267/.369/.434; 264 PA, 5 HR, 18 SB, 31 BB, 53 K.
    Summary: Never played below high A, was over-slotted and over-assigned when drafted. But he got better each and every season. Better than average defender after his move to second base, his challenge has been staying healthy. However second basement with .804 OPS in AA and excellent judgement of the strike zone do not grow on trees. The exact kind of player a team (especially in the National League) would not mind spending its last roster spot over.
    Risk %: 75%
     
    RHP Alex Muren
    Age: 24
    Height: 6'3"
    Weight: 200 lb
    Highest Level: AA
    Acquired: Drafted by the Twins in the 12th round of 2012
    2015 Prospect Rank: N/A
    Last season (A+/AA) :44 G, 0 GS, 71.1 IP, 6.8 K/9, 3.0 BB/9, 3.53 ERA, 3.23 FIP, 1.206 WHIP, .273 BABIP
    Summary: Muren is organizational depth at this point. He does have his moments but are not enough for someone to draft him.
    Risk %: 10%
     
    C Carlos Paulino
    Age: 26
    Height: 6'0"
    Weight: 175lb
    Highest Level: AAA
    Acquired: Singed as a Minor League Free Agent in 2015
    2015 Prospect Rank:NR
    Last season (AA/AAA) : .262/.328/.337; 193 PA, 0 HR, 0 SB, 17 BB, 15 K.
    Summary: Re-signed by the Twins as a minor league free agent again this off-season. Despite being the Twins' de facto number 3 in depth catcher as of today, he does not fit the profile of someone who will be taken in the Rule 5 draft.
    Risk %: 25%
     
    RHP Greg Peavey
    Age: 27
    Height: 6'2"
    Weight: 185lb
    Highest Level: AAA
    Acquired: Selected from the Mets in the Minor League portion of the Rule 5 draft in 2014
    2015 Prospect Rank: N/A
    Last season (AAA/AA) :27 G, 27 GS, 147 IP, 5.3 K/9, 2.4 BB/9, 5.02 ERA, 4.48 FIP, 1.354 WHIP, .287 BABIP
    Summary: Peavey is a pitch to contact control artist who can be really good on a good day and really bad on a bad day. And he had more bad days than good last season. Hard to see him drafted, but it is not impossible. Not unlike the starters that the Twins have drafted in the rule 5 draft this decade
    Risk %: 40%
     
    C Michael Quesada
    Age: 25
    Height: 6'1"
    Weight: 205lb
    Highest Level: A+
    Acquired: Drafted by the Twins in the 24th Round of 2010
    2015 Prospect Rank:NR
    Last season (A+) : .151/.239/.198; 240 PA, 0 HR, 0 SB, 21 BB, 73 K.
    Summary: Quesada had an abysmal season at Fort Myers at an age 2.5 years older than League average. Has been digressing every season; add a suspension because of drug use and it is a wonder he still is in the Twins' organization. Will not get drafted, unless something freezes over.
    Risk %: 1%
     
    RHP Dereck Rodriguez
    Age: 24
    Height: 6'1"
    Weight: 180lb
    Highest Level: A+
    Acquired: Drafted in the 6th round of 2011
    2015 Prospect Rank: N/A
    Last season (Rk/A/A+) :15 G, 14 GS, 75.1 IP, 7.9 K/9, 2.3 BB/9, 3.35 ERA, 3.49 FIP, 1.235 WHIP, .306 BABIP
    Summary: The son of Pudge was drafted as an outfielder and now is being converted into a pitcher. Played mostly Rookie ball at Elizabethton with 2 games with the Miracle and 1 with the Lookouts. He is a project; a project that looks good, but not MLB-ready by any means.
    Risk %: 20%
     
    C Jairo Rodriguez
    Age: 27
    Height: 5'11"
    Weight: 180 lb
    Highest Level: AA
    Acquired: Signed by the Twins as an International Amateur Free Agent from Venezuela
    2015 Prospect Rank:NR
    Last season (AA) : .221/.284/.244; 96 PA, 0 HR, 0 SB, 8 BB, 15 K.
    Summary: Has been in the Twins' organization for 9 season and was re-signed again this off-season, for his 10th, after a pretty bad performance at Chattanooga. They like him for some reason, but his is a performance that only a parent team would like...
    Risk %: 2%
     
    1B Reynaldo Rodriguez
     
     
     
    Age: 29
    Height: 6'0"
    Weight: 200 lb
    Highest Level: AAA
    Acquired: Signed by the Twins as a minor league Free Agent in 2013
    2015 Prospect Rank:NR
    Last season (AAA) : .255/.307/.446; 551 PA, 16 HR, 13 SB, 39 BB, 82 K.
    Summary: Re-signed by the Twins as a minor league free agent again this off-season. A little older than the traditional rule 5 picks, his skills translate well in the majors and could be picked by a team in need of RH bats at the 1B/OF/PH/DH positions.
    Risk %: 55%
     
    LHP Dan Runzler
    Age: 30
    Height: 6'4"
    Weight: 210lb
    Highest Level: MLB (2012)
    Acquired: Signed this off-season as a minor league free agent
    2015 Prospect Rank: N/A
    Last season (AAA) :39 G, 0 GS, 37.2 IP, 9.6 K/9, 6.7 BB/9, 5.26 ERA, 4.56 FIP, 2.018 WHIP, .285 BABIP
    Summary: You can read a lot about Runzler here. A very intriguing situation and the only thing that makes me think that he might not get selected is that if a team wanted to give him a 40-man position, they could have done it. However, things change in a month.
    Risk %: 45%
     
     
    RHP Tim Shibuya
    Age: 26
    Height: 6'1"
    Weight: 190lb
    Highest Level: AAA
    Acquired: Drafted by the Twins in the 23rd round of the 2011 draft
    2015 Prospect Rank: N/A
    Last season (A+/AA/AAA) :33 G, 4 GS, 63 IP, 5.3 K/9, 1.6 BB/9, 3.57 ERA, 3.98 FIP, 1.222 WHIP, .295 BABIP
    Summary: Shibuya, despite his impeccable control is organizational depth at this point. Hard to see any takers
    Risk %: 25%
     
    RHP Matt Summers
    Age: 26
    Height: 6'1"
    Weight: 205lb
    Highest Level: AA
    Acquired: Drafted by the Twins in the 4th round of the 2011 draft
    2015 Prospect Rank: N/A
    Last season (A+/AA) :26 G, 1 GS, 44.2 IP, 6.0 K/9, 2.6 BB/9, 3.63 ERA, 3.45 FIP, 1.187 WHIP, .266 BABIP
    Summary: Pretty much the same that was said about Shibuya. However, Summers was a higher round pick in the same draft and did not go that far.
    Risk %: 25%
     
     
    RHP Todd Van Steensel
    Age: 24
    Height: 6'1"
    Weight: 190 lb
    Highest Level: A+
    Acquired: Signed by the Twins as a minor league free agent in 2014 (previously pitching for them for 2011)
    2015 Prospect Rank: 34
    Last season (A+/AA) :46 G, 0 GS, 66 IP, 11 K/9, 4.4 BB/9, 2.32 ERA, 3.33 FIP, 1.288 WHIP, .310 BABIP
    Summary: In his first full season as one of the Miracle closers, Van Steensel put good enough numbers to move up to the Chattanooga pen next season, but not good enough to be drafted. He in an interesting prospect who might be a couple seasons away if his fastball plays against better competition, but he is not there yet.
    Risk %: 25%
     
    UT Logan Wade
    Age: 24
    Height: 6'1"
    Weight: 190 lb
    Highest Level: A+
    Acquired: Signed by the Twins as an International Free agent from Australia
    2015 Prospect Rank:NR; 2014: 37
    Last season (A+) : .258/.296/.374; 366 PA, 3 HR, 3 SB, 20 BB, 63 K.
    Summary: Wade is an average utility player at Fort Myers who can play all over the field. Not sure that he is ready for AA, much yet for the majors.
    Risk %: 5%
     
     
    LHP Jason Wheeler
    Age: 25
    Height: 6'6"
    Weight: 255 lb
    Highest Level: AAA
    Acquired: Drafted by the Twins in the 8th round of 2011
    2015 Prospect Rank: NR
    Last season (AA/AAA) :25 G, 25 GS, 137.2 IP, 5.9 K/9, 2.6 BB/9, 5.43 ERA, 4.68 FIP, 1.467 WHIP, .323 BABIP
    Summary: Typical Twins' minor league middle of the rotation starter. Pitch to contact pitcher with above average control, hoping to induce ground balls that the defense behind him will turn to outs. Much better success at AA than at AAA last season. He is a lefty. Maybe someone things that with a couple few pitches and a few ticks higher in his FB might turn into an acceptable reliever in the majors. Maybe.
    Risk %: 55%
     
    UT Stephen Wickens
    Age: 26
    Height: 5'10"
    Weight: 170 lb
    Highest Level: AA
    Acquired: Drafted by the Twins in the 33rd round of 2011
    2015 Prospect Rank:NR
    Last season (A+) : .254/.352/.333; 310 PA, 1 HR, 16 SB, 36 BB, 45 K.
    Summary: Steady utility player who has played every position except CF and C. Has value on resting starters for a good minor league team and not hurt the team with the bat or the glove, but that's about it. I do not see him getting selected.
    Risk %: 15%
     
    LHP Corey Williams
    Age: 25
    Height: 6'2"
    Weight: 205 lb
    Highest Level: AA
    Acquired: Drafted by the Twins in the 3th round of 2011
    2015 Prospect Rank: NR
    Last season (A+/AA) :29 G, 0 GS, 33.12 IP, 7 K/9, 4 BB/9, 2.43 ERA, 2.99 FIP, 1.110 WHIP, .247 BABIP
    Summary: Williams is a lefty in the Twins' system with closer staff, but command issues. He was on a quick trajectory to the majors that got derailed with a Tommy John surgery and the loss of all 2014. He returned in 2015 and put good but not great numbers. The Twins know his medicals better than any team, but Williams is the type of guy you add to a 40-man roster because if healthy he can help a team down the stretch better than the likes of Aaron Thompson and Ryan O'Rourke. Also this is exactly the kind of guy who might get drafted for the same reason.
    Risk %: 75%
     
    RHP Alex Wimmers.
    Age: 27
    Height: 6'2"
    Weight: 212 lb
    Highest Level: AA
    Acquired: Drafted by the Twins in the 1st round of 2010 (21st overall)
    2015 Prospect Rank: NR; 2014: 40
    Last season (AA) :30 G, 18 GS, 115.1 IP, 7.8 K/9, 3.4 BB/9, 4.53 ERA, 3.50 FIP, 1.387 WHIP, .325 BABIP
    Summary: Wimmers is the poster boy of the players who get drafted in the Rule 5 draft. Another season removed by Tommy John surgery he put respectable raw numbers in AA and pitched the most innings in his career. A control artist with ground ball tendencies and a strikeout breaking ball, might need a change of scenery. The potential is there and now that he has proven that he can handle the work load, he will find a taker. Surprised if the former 1st Round selection is with the Twins at the conclusion of the Winter Meetings.
    Risk %: 85%
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