Twins best friend

There's been a lot of talk recently about the Twins going after good starting pitching and especially some hard-throwing pitching. The majority of this discussion hasn't so much centered around who they should be going after but rather how much they should be offered. I for one had little to no basis for making this judgement but was curious so I decided to conduct an investigation in hopes of finding a reasonably consistent trend which could aid in the predictions. I understand that the market will fluctuate from year to year and that inflation will occur but I believe these examples should provide at least a basis to go off of. All the data that I used to create this analysis was obtained from baseball-reference and fangraphs so thank you to those sites for making so much information readily available to curious parties The first step I wanted to take was determining what was a "hard-throwing" pitcher. Because it sounded pretty good and rounded up to 93 I chose to take all pitchers who displayed an average fastball velocity of 92.6 over the course of a year starting in 2007 (2007 is as far back as fangraphs keeps pitch f/x data. Aside from this I also narrowed down the pitchers by requiring the following criteria: -- still in the league (excluded Brad Penny) -- entered the league before 2010 (greater sample size) -- at least 2 years of this high average fastball velocity (establish consistency) After compiling this list it was time to start considering the salary aspect. I wanted the statistic for average salary per year, but only concerning the years which a pitcher was free agent eligible. Yes, many of the pitchers in this list signed extensions but the idea that i'm running under is that they are working out deals which account for this and influence salary accordingly

There's been a lot of talk recently about the Twins going after good starting pitching and especially some hard-throwing pitching. The majority of this discussion hasn't so much centered around who they should be going after but rather how much they should be offered. I for one had little to no basis for making this judgement but was curious so I decided to conduct an investigation in hopes of finding a reasonably consistent trend which could aid in the predictions. I understand that the market will fluctuate from year to year and that inflation will occur but I believe these examples should provide at least a basis to go off of. All the data that I used to create this analysis was obtained from baseball-reference and fangraphs so thank you to those sites for making so much information readily available to curious parties The first step I wanted to take was determining what was a "hard-throwing" pitcher. Because it sounded pretty good and rounded up to 93 I chose to take all pitchers who displayed an average fastball velocity of 92.6 over the course of a year starting in 2007 (2007 is as far back as fangraphs keeps pitch f/x data. Aside from this I also narrowed down the pitchers by requiring the following criteria: -- still in the league (excluded Brad Penny) -- entered the league before 2010 (greater sample size) -- at least 2 years of this high average fastball velocity (establish consistency) After compiling this list it was time to start considering the salary aspect. I wanted the statistic for average salary per year, but only concerning the years which a pitcher was free agent eligible. Yes, many of the pitchers in this list signed extensions

I agree with this or would it be so bad if he was a David Murphy+ type? I'd think Hicks would bring more to the table in defense and speed but David Murphy has been a solid offensive contributor.

I'm not sure if I would go after Johnson. Kelly Johnson's range factor is very similar to Jamey Carroll's and they shared roughly the same fielding percentage. Johnson has the pop in his bat whereas Carroll is better at getting on base and Rogers Centre and Target Field are seperated by .001 in the home run factor so Johnson should be able to match his numbers from last year. I just don't see him as enough of an upgrade to chase after. Brett Myers I would enjoy seeing in a Twins uniform

That was the last prediction he made. Still don't know WHERE that guy pulled that conclusion out of.

I was perusing the videos on mlb.com today and reliving some old glory moments when I came upon a video, posted today that discussed who two analysts thought the Twins should go after over the rest of the season and here were the picks along with my own thoughts. Pitcher: Analyst #1: Jair Jurrjens Analyst #2: Mike Pelfrey My thoughts?: If I had to pick on I would pick Jurrjens. 2013 has already been flushed away and while both of these players have had good years, they've both had big injury concerns in recent history with Pefrey's TJ's surgery and Jurrjens only starting 10 games in 2012 due to injuries. The Twins don't have enough ready-to-step-up pitching prospects to gamble on these guys. Shortstop: Analyst #1: Freddy Galvis Analyst #2: Pedro Florimon My thoughts? They say Galvis is starting to hit a bit. All I see is a .226 average with an abysmal .254 OBP. Also, he only hit above .240 once in his minor league career. His range factors beat out Florimon by a little bit and he did only commit one error last year in limited playing time, but that doesn't seem like enough to really go after a guy. I'll stick with Florimon for now. Second Base: Analyst #1: Jamey Carroll Analyst #2: Freddy Sanchez My thoughts? Neither are spring chickens anymore but Sanchez' history is frequently scarred by injury including back surgery this last year to remove a disk. I've always liked Sanchez though and his bat is quite tempting however so if the Twins could sign him for a low-low cost then I would at least be interested. Outfield: Analyst #1: Trade Morneau for Franklin Gutierrez (also adds that Mariners then sign Bourn) Analyst #2: Aaron Hicks (also says watch out for Byron Buxton comparing him to Ken Griffery Jr. implying he might win the job out of Spring Training My thoughts? No. No to everything but giving Aaron Hicks a shot. If all we can get for Morneau is Franklin Gutierrez to take up space in our outfield until our younger stars are ready then I am truly depressed and Buxton being compared to Griffey is more than I'm willing to allow right now. In Summary: Some things seemed realistic (Hicks, Florimon, Carroll, *gag* Pelfrey) but it felt more like a fluff piece written because the network hadn't addressed the Twins in too long. I feel this unnecessary since everybody knows their 2013 season is doomed to the AL Central basement... which is why I just keep thinking about 2014 and beyond. Hooray for the light on the horizon!

I was perusing the videos on mlb.com today and reliving some old glory moments when I came upon a video, posted today that discussed who two analysts thought the Twins should go after over the rest of the season and here were the picks along with my own thoughts. Pitcher: Analyst #1: Jair Jurrjens Analyst #2: Mike Pelfrey My thoughts?: If I had to pick on I would pick Jurrjens. 2013 has already been flushed away and while both of these players have had good years, they've both had big injury concerns in recent history with Pefrey's TJ's surgery and Jurrjens only starting 10 games in 2012 due to injuries. The Twins don't have enough ready-to-step-up pitching prospects to gamble on these guys. Shortstop: Analyst #1: Freddy Galvis Analyst #2: Pedro Florimon My thoughts? They say Galvis is starting to hit a bit. All I see is a .226 average with an abysmal .254 OBP. Also, he only hit above .240 once in his minor league career. His range factors beat out Florimon by a little bit and he did only commit one error last year in limited playing time, but that doesn't seem like enough to really go after a guy. I'll stick with Florimon for now. Second Base: Analyst #1: Jamey Carroll Analyst #2: Freddy Sanchez My thoughts? Neither are spring chickens anymore but Sanchez' history is frequently scarred by injury including back surgery this last year to remove a disk. I've always liked Sanchez though and his bat is quite tempting however so if the Twins could sign him for a low-low cost then I would at least be interested. Outfield: Analyst #1: Trade Morneau for Franklin Gutierrez (also adds that Mariners then sign Bourn) Analyst #2: Aaron Hicks (also says watch out for Byron Buxton comparing him to Ken Griffery Jr. implying he might win the job out of Spring Training My thoughts? No. No to everything but giving Aaron Hicks a shot. If all we can get for Morneau is Franklin Gutierrez to take up space in our outfield until our younger stars are ready then I am truly depressed and Buxton being compared to Griffey is more than I'm willing to allow right now. In Summary: Some things seemed realistic (Hicks, Florimon, Carroll, *gag* Pelfrey) but it felt more like a fluff piece written because the network hadn't addressed the Twins in too long. I feel this unnecessary since everybody knows their 2013 season is doomed to the AL Central basement... which is why I just keep thinking about 2014 and beyond. Hooray for the light on the horizon!

Forgive me bloggers for I have sinned. It has been 3 months and 17 days since my last post. I attribute this to 1) being busy 2) the state of the Twins having me down in the dumps and 3) laziness. However, recent trades have me excited again and wondering who's next to be moved. I've been hearing a lot about a connection between the Orioles and Morneau but I'm wondering if he could possibly start drawing interest from Texas. Texas has been chasing Zach Greinke, Josh Hamilton and a trade for Justin Upton but Greinke has signed away with the Dodgers and the Diamondbacks are saying that Upton is off the table. If somehow the Rangers don't sign Hamilton could they potentially become a trade partner for the Twins and Morneau? Mitch Moreland currently mans first base in Texas unless I'm mistaken and he's not exaclty a stud. Also, Morneau would fill the left-handed power gap left by Hamilton's departure. Essentially what I'm asking is: Is this a possible scenario at all? If so could it be one where the Twins could oversell Morneau to a desperate Texas team? Also who would they target?

Forgive me bloggers for I have sinned. It has been 3 months and 17 days since my last post. I attribute this to 1) being busy 2) the state of the Twins having me down in the dumps and 3) laziness. However, recent trades have me excited again and wondering who's next to be moved. I've been hearing a lot about a connection between the Orioles and Morneau but I'm wondering if he could possibly start drawing interest from Texas. Texas has been chasing Zach Greinke, Josh Hamilton and a trade for Justin Upton but Greinke has signed away with the Dodgers and the Diamondbacks are saying that Upton is off the table. If somehow the Rangers don't sign Hamilton could they potentially become a trade partner for the Twins and Morneau? Mitch Moreland currently mans first base in Texas unless I'm mistaken and he's not exaclty a stud. Also, Morneau would fill the left-handed power gap left by Hamilton's departure. Essentially what I'm asking is: Is this a possible scenario at all? If so could it be one where the Twins could oversell Morneau to a desperate Texas team? Also who would they target?

To all - I am indeed being quite optimistic with ETAs. What can I say, I like to dream. The thought of Buxton being a Mike Trout makes me giddy, however unlikely it may be. YourHouse and Jim - I put Diamond at the top of the rotation because of how I likened him to a Twins Mark Buerhle. Buerhle isn't truly an ace pitcher himself, yet on a weak staff he was a rock and started numerous Opening Day games (9). If he can live up to my expectations that is where he'll pitch. The rest of the staff is a guessing game and I took my best guess. Jim - yeah, Sano at third is kind of a continuation of my optimism, hence the 3B?. I threw Doumit in there because he's hitting well this year and I thought he had a 3 year deal at the time when he actually has a 2 year deal. My bad. Once Plouffe rediscovers his stroke I would be ok with Plouffe manning third but I'd rather find a way to get Sano on the field. First would seem likely though with Parmelee and Mauer it might be congested. to all - Dozier is the counterbalance to my optimism, also I don't know much about Twins minor league middle infielders besides Rosario.

The future outfield of the Twins (Hicks, Arcia and Buxton) - I currently hold high hopes that this trio might be united by 2015. not entirely sure how exactly they're going to fit into a lineup though. Hicks is certainly showing that he has the capability to become a top lead-off man and yet early on in the going Buxton is also displaying the speed to profile in such a position as well. - At the moment I would give the leadoff spot to Hicks because he has the speed yet has also displayed a profinity for drawing walks throughout his minor league career, averaging 76 walks per season (note: i'm counting 2008 and 2009 as one year since the combined games played of those two years equate roughly the same amount as 2010 through the current season.) as well as an overall ability to get on base (note: his lowest on base percentage thus far has been .353). - Currently I can see Arcia profiling somewhere around a 5 hole hitter. He's not pumping out home runs like a typical clean-up hitter should but he's got the gap power down with 35 double between Ft. Meyers and New Britain this year. -Buxton.... I haven't the foggiest where he'll profile in a lineup. Dreaming? He'll usurp Mauer and Mauer will slide into the no. 2 hole which might actually suit his ridiculous on base skills more than his current no. 3 role - Defensively? I am imagining an alignment of Arica in LF, Hicks in CF, and Buxton in RF. My reasoning? Hicks is well known to be a defensive star thus his position in center and Buxton is reported to have a cannon for an arm, profiling him in right. Arcia, therefore falls to the position which is leftover. Scott Diamond - Truly, Diamond is THE bright spot that Twins fans can hold onto in what has turned out to be another dark year in Twins Territory. However, I reside in the camp that he will experience a decline in production. However, that doesn't mean that he can't be the anchor of future Twins rotations to come. I see him becoming the Twins version of Mark Buerhle, a guy who's stuff isn't outstanding but who's sound mechanics and fundamentals lead to wins. Maybe even a Brad Radke with a better ERA? Workhorse, that's the keyword. Morneau/Span - Trade them. Next year is lost. Ship them out for starting pitching and middle inflield help. Parmelee will transition to the majors, Sano is on his way and the outfield and bullpen have plenty of names to count on. Sign everyone - forget that last statement. Sign everyone. Dan Haren. Zach Greinke. League minimum salary. BOOM! Mad you call me?!... yeah that sentence got away from me a bit. Kudos to anyone who gets the reference. (Hint: Blink) Finally, my 2015 Twins roster 1: (CF) Aaron Hicks 2: © Joe Mauer 3: (RF) Byron Buxton 4: (3B?) Miguel Sano 5: (LF) Oswaldo Arcia 6: (1B) Chris Parmelee 7: (2B) Eddie Rosario 8: (DH) Doumit? Plouffe if he ever returns to his mashing ways? 9: (SS) Brian Dozier Starting rotation? 1. Scott Diamond 2. Ervin Santana (this would make sense if you read my last blog and its comments) 3. Kyle Gibson 4. J.O Berrios 5. Liam Hendriks (not a bad looking rotation if you ask me!) Alright. Let the comments fly. The only reason I write is to hear what other people think.

The future outfield of the Twins (Hicks, Arcia and Buxton) - I currently hold high hopes that this trio might be united by 2015. not entirely sure how exactly they're going to fit into a lineup though. Hicks is certainly showing that he has the capability to become a top lead-off man and yet early on in the going Buxton is also displaying the speed to profile in such a position as well. - At the moment I would give the leadoff spot to Hicks because he has the speed yet has also displayed a profinity for drawing walks throughout his minor league career, averaging 76 walks per season (note: i'm counting 2008 and 2009 as one year since the combined games played of those two years equate roughly the same amount as 2010 through the current season.) as well as an overall ability to get on base (note: his lowest on base percentage thus far has been .353). - Currently I can see Arcia profiling somewhere around a 5 hole hitter. He's not pumping out home runs like a typical clean-up hitter should but he's got the gap power down with 35 double between Ft. Meyers and New Britain this year. -Buxton.... I haven't the foggiest where he'll profile in a lineup. Dreaming? He'll usurp Mauer and Mauer will slide into the no. 2 hole which might actually suit his ridiculous on base skills more than his current no. 3 role - Defensively? I am imagining an alignment of Arica in LF, Hicks in CF, and Buxton in RF. My reasoning? Hicks is well known to be a defensive star thus his position in center and Buxton is reported to have a cannon for an arm, profiling him in right. Arcia, therefore falls to the position which is leftover. Scott Diamond - Truly, Diamond is THE bright spot that Twins fans can hold onto in what has turned out to be another dark year in Twins Territory. However, I reside in the camp that he will experience a decline in production. However, that doesn't mean that he can't be the anchor of future Twins rotations to come. I see him becoming the Twins version of Mark Buerhle, a guy who's stuff isn't outstanding but who's sound mechanics and fundamentals lead to wins. Maybe even a Brad Radke with a better ERA? Workhorse, that's the keyword. Morneau/Span - Trade them. Next year is lost. Ship them out for starting pitching and middle inflield help. Parmelee will transition to the majors, Sano is on his way and the outfield and bullpen have plenty of names to count on. Sign everyone - forget that last statement. Sign everyone. Dan Haren. Zach Greinke. League minimum salary. BOOM! Mad you call me?!... yeah that sentence got away from me a bit. Kudos to anyone who gets the reference. (Hint: Blink) Finally, my 2015 Twins roster 1: (CF) Aaron Hicks 2: © Joe Mauer 3: (RF) Byron Buxton 4: (3B?) Miguel Sano 5: (LF) Oswaldo Arcia 6: (1B) Chris Parmelee 7: (2B) Eddie Rosario 8: (DH) Doumit? Plouffe if he ever returns to his mashing ways? 9: (SS) Brian Dozier Starting rotation? 1. Scott Diamond 2. Ervin Santana (this would make sense if you read my last blog and its comments) 3. Kyle Gibson 4. J.O Berrios 5. Liam Hendriks (not a bad looking rotation if you ask me!) Alright. Let the comments fly. The only reason I write is to hear what other people think.

Well one name in my mind is Ervin Santana. If the Angels choose to buyout his contract, which they might considering they already have Weaver, Greinke, Wilson, and Haren I would love to see the Twins go after him. He's shown that he can be very, very good in the past and he would be an exciting addition for the Twins. He'd probably be within that 15-20 mark you suggested since he's already making 11 million but considering the down year he's having and the plethora of big name starters which could possibly hit the market the Twins have a chance to get him on the cheaper side. This all tends to hinge however on whether the Angels choose to drop some big money on keeping Greinke and/or Haren. I remember hearing around the trade deadline that the Reds and Twins were talking about Denard Span but couldn't come to an agreement on how truly valuable he is. Maybe a poor playoff performance from current Reds leadoff hitters and resulting elimination therefrom would give them the kick they need to loosen up their grip on top prospects. In any case I'd rather see pitching than a middle infielder. Good questions! Sorry if my response was inadequate, as i'm not the most informed person but I do try. Thanks for reading and reacting.

No, I suppose you're right. With all the payroll they're (hopefully) freeing there should be money that they SHOULD want to invest in a long term, impact pitcher. The amount of "should" in that sentence make me uneasy

Morneau gets traded during the offseason for a starting pitching prospect knocking on the major league door. if Parmelee can continue his success in AAA throughout the rest of season. but not if that success doesn't translate into a strong September call-up. ​Willingham shifts his bat to the DH role more often following the All-Star break. if Arcia/Hicks advance to AAA and still produce at the same level and deserve a call-up. but also assuming a shift to primarily first base for Mauer. The rotation consists of: Diamond, Pavano, Walters, Gibson, Hendriks. if Gibson can continue his successful rehab this season AND if Hendriks can finally find his footing against major league hitters. but Dump Pavano if a "cheap, impact" starting pitcher can be acquired in free agency That's all i've got for now. There are so many more ifs and buts to be addressed but i think this covers the major three that have been floating around in my head for the past month or so. Anybody have any of their own to add?