chuchadoro

Nolasco was mediocre in his time in the NL. "Craptacular" (or FatCrapps-tacular if you're so inclined) is probably a more fitting adjective. $11.5m/yr sure can buy you a bunch of white Lambos, though.

Those numbers also look better when you use inaccurate and/or made up ones. Nolasco's ERA+ the last three years is 101, 91, and 84. He put up those numbers in nearly 600 innings in the NL, which someone might have told me once is the weaker of the two leagues. Besides 2013, his only season above 100 was in 2008. Nolasco's career ERA+ coming into this year was 92. But yeah, let's just assume he will be a league average pitcher next year. Counting on Meyer to replicate his minor league stats right out of the gate is setting yourself up for disappointment. May is a wild card and I would be hesitant to assume anything regarding his 2015 season. I agree that you can't use the handful of starts that Milone and May have made for the Twins as projections for 2015. You also shouldn't make rosy projections with little basis in reality as a counterpoint.

Finally there's someone who gets me!

I thought the pelf hashtag would be a dead giveaway that I was lampooning the post I quoted, I guess I was mistaken. This isn't the first time I've had to explain myself (usually to mike because we have similar opinions on the Twins and his sarcasm detector can sometimes be dulled by the argumentative nature of his TD persona). To recap: One overreaction to May's debut, one post mocking said overreaction, and one infrequent poster whose humor doesn't play at TD. #ohjokes,igetjokes!

Yeah, how did May work out for all you geniuses? #hotSidtakes #pelf2015usuckaz

The NL to AL switch should be factored in as well. http://www.nytimes.com/2007/01/14/sports/baseball/14score.html?fta=y&_r=0 The study was from 2000-2005 and there is also a SSS alert in dealing with 57 FA pitchers but the point remains that the AL is undoubtedly the tougher league on pitchers. The 29 pitchers who switched to the NL from the AL saw their ERA+ go from 97 to 110. The 28 pitchers who made the opposite move saw their ERA+ decrease from 113 to 100. Basically, an average AL starter becomes an above average NL starter and an above average NL starter becomes an average AL starter. The bad news is Nolasco was a below average NL starter judging by his career ERA+ of 92. I don't think the league switch is entirely responsible for his horrid ERA+ of 66 in 2014 but is certainly a significant factor. FIP is kinder to Nolasco but his FIP has consistently been better than his ERA throughout his career. Nolasco will get better but don't hold your breath waiting for a repeat of his 2013 season. He's a back of the rotation guy who is better at fooling Twins fans into believing their team is willing to spend than he is fooling professional hitters.

I'm more of a Keith Atherton guy but to each his own. Great article, as always! Also, thanks for linking to your draft write ups, I didn't have the chance to read many of them right away.

I bet a cardboard cutout of Jim Pohlad in the clubhouse would provide the proper motivation.

Brad, Which is more satisfying: Little Caesar's Pizza or watching Drew Butera at bat?