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cHawk

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Blog Entries posted by cHawk

  1. cHawk
    After consecutive seasons of anticipation and ultimate disappointment, Twins fans find themselves in a position of uncertainty. What direction does S.S. Falvine appear to be heading? What changes await in this direction? Will the vessel come upon a World Series title in its journey? Or will it forever circulate the triangle of mediocrity?
    These questions haunted Twins fans throughout the land in the early winter. Uncertainty surrounding the return of star shortstop Carlos Correa raised late autumn trepidation in Twins territory. Exhibited inactivity from Captain Falvey and Captain Levine in the season of advent sparked further discontent and disarray. This pattern of sightings was not unfamiliar to Twins fans, who had witnessed their fair share of underwhelming "impact pitchers," including JA Happ, Homer Bailey, Dylan Bundy, Chris Archer, and Matt Shoemaker. Fans slowly rose in arms, and the addition of outfielder Joey Gallo hardly appeased the crowd.
    In mid-December, all hope appeared lost, as Minnesota's prized shortstop had signed a gargantuan contract with the San Francisco Giants. However, through a remarkable series of unlikely events, Minnesota reclaimed their shortstop, signing him to a long-term contract. Not long after, they acquired starting pitcher Pablo Lopez from the Miami Marlins to significantly improve their starting rotation. Unfortunately, Lopez wasn't without cost. The Twins were forced to part with Reigning American League Batting Champion Luis Arraez.
    Minnesota will not only place their faith on the addition of Pablo Lopez, but also on improved health, to improve their starting rotation in 2023. While the addition of Lopez is significant, the Twins will also receive the services of Kenta Maeda in 2023, who had missed eighteen months due to recovery from Tommy John surgery, and Tyler Mahle, who missed the final month of the 2022 season with shoulder injury. A rotation of Pablo Lopez, Sonny Gray, Joe Ryan, Tyler Mahle, and Kenta Maeda appears promising.
    While the starting rotation appears improved, question marks fly high around the starting lineup, which will be without the reigning American League batting champion. They will look to sluggers Byron Buxton and Carlos Correa to maintain good health and also to prospects such as Royce Lewis, Alex Kirilloff, and others who will see the field again after missing time due to injury.
    The season ahead is a pivotal one for both Falvine and manager Rocco Baldelli. The ship has drifted more and more into the incorrect direction over the past two years. If it continues to drift in that direction, Twins fans must seriously question the competence of those managing their team. Can officers Derek Falvey, Thad Levine, and Rocco Baldelli pilot the ship out of the triangle of mediocrity? Or is it their fate to never leave?
    We will know the answer in November 2023.
    cHawk's ("Optimistic Homer") Predictions for 2023:
    vs. White Sox: 7-6
    vs. Guardians: 7-6
    vs. Tigers: 8-5
    vs. Royals: 9-4
    vs. Orioles: 5-1
    vs. Red Sox: 4-3
    vs. Rays: 4-2
    vs. Blue Jays: 2-4
    vs. Yankees: 1-6
    vs. Astros: 1-5
    vs. Angels: 4-2
    vs. Athletics: 6-0
    vs. Mariners: 3-4
    vs. Rangers: 5-2
    vs. Braves: 2-1
    vs. Marlins: 2-1
    vs. Mets: 1-2
    vs. Phillies: 2-1
    vs. Nationals: 3-0
    vs. Reds: 3-0
    vs. Cubs: 2-1
    vs. Brewers: 3-1
    vs. Pirates: 2-1
    vs. Cardinals: 1-2
    vs. Diamondbacks: 2-1
    vs. Rockies: 3-0
    vs. Dodgers: 0-3
    vs. Padres: 1-2
    vs. Giants: 2-1
    Total: 95-67, 1st place in the American League Central Division
  2. cHawk

    How will these Twins finish?

    By cHawk,


    Twins Stuff
    Our Minnesota Twins stand at 57-51 with 54 games remaining in the 2022 MLB season. Thus far, they've had an up & down season. They started out hot, reaching a record of 27-16 after the first 43 games of the season. At that time, pitching appeared to be the strength of the team. Since then, however, pitching has clearly made itself known as the weakness of the team. The numbers illustrate that.
    Team Pitching ERA: 4.02 (19th in MLB, 10th in the AL)
    Team Pitching WHIP: 1.24 (T-12th in MLB, 7th in the AL)
    Team Pitching BA Against: .237 (13th in MLB, 7th in the AL)
    Team Pitching ERA-: 103 (T-20th in MLB, 10th in the AL)
    Team Pitching HR/9 Against: 1.24 (26th in MLB, 14th in the AL)
    Team Pitching WPA: -0.06 (19th in MLB, 10th in the AL)
    Those numbers, especially the Team Pitching HR/9 Against number, are less than stellar. The Twins knew they needed to address their pitching staff at the trade deadline, and they did just that. They acquired closer Jorge Lopez from Baltimore, set-up man Michael Fulmer from Detroit, & starter Tyler Mahle from Cincinatti. So far, these additions have shown mixed results. Tyler Mahle was good on Friday night against Toronto through 5 innings, but the wheels fell off in the 6th inning. Jorge Lopez blew a save in aforementioned game. Michael Fulmer, while so far not allowing any runs in a Twins uniform, has a concerning 1.5 WHIP in that stretch.
    The Twins have also dealt with several injuries this season. Left-fielder Alex Kirilloff will be missing the remainder of the season. Byron Buxton has been on & off the bench throughout the year, as always. Royce Lewis tore his ACL for the second year in a row (ugh).
    The X-factors for the Twins in the next 54 games, IMO, are as follows:
    1.  The starting pitching. Currently, the Twins have Mahle, Gray, & Ryan in the rotation. After that there are question marks such as Dylan Bundy & Chris Archer.
    2. The bullpen. Jorge Lopez & Michael Fulmer need to be big contributors along with Jhoan Duran, Griffin Jax, & Caleb Thielbar in order to consistently close out wins.
    3. Byron Buxton & Carlos Correa. In order for this offense to get going, somebody needs to step up. The bats of both Buxton & Correa have been cold as of late.
    Now I will predict the rest of the Twins' schedule. I will organize their schedule by opponents & number of games against each opponent. Then, I will predict a record against each opponent.
    Twins' Remaining Opponents:
     · Chicago White Sox: 5-4 in 9 games
     · Cleveland Guardians: 5-3 in 8 games
     · Detroit Tigers: 2-1 in 3 games
     · Kansas City Royals: 6-3 in 9 games
     · Boston Red Sox: 2-1 in 3 games
     · New York Yankees: 1-3 in 4 games
     · Houston Astros: 1-2 in 3 games
     · Los Angeles Angels: 4-2 in 6 games
     · Texas Rangers: 3-1 in 4 games
     · Los Angeles Dodgers: 0-2 in 2 games
     · San Francisco Giants: 2-1 in 3 games
    Total Record over the Final 54 games: 31-23
    Twins End-of-Season record: 88-74
  3. cHawk
    We are about a month of the way through the 2022 MLB Season. Some teams have overperformed expectations thus far, some have underperformed expectations thus far, and other teams have performed as expected. I want to rank the 15 American League teams based on their performance in the first month of the season. I will be considering not only the teams' Win-Loss records but also the way the individual parts of the teams have performed. Let's dive into it, shall we? (Yes, I will be doing a National League Edition too, probably tomorrow or Sunday)
    15. Detroit Tigers (8-16)
    The Tigers have been awful in the first month of the season. Offensively, they rank 29th in Runs Scored, 27th in Team OPS, and T-24th in Team wRC+. Their pitching staff has been decent, ranking 10th in Team ERA, T-10th in Team WHIP, and 13th in Team Pitching ERA-. However, the decent performance of the pitching staff has not been able to make up for the godawful performance of the offense.
    14. Kansas City Royals (8-15)
    The Royals have stunk in the first month of the season. Offensively, they rank 30th in Runs Scored, T-28th in Team OPS, and T-28th in Team wRC+. Their pitching staff hasn't been any better, ranking 27th in Team ERA, 26th in Team WHIP, 28th in Team ERA-, and 28th in K%.
    13. Baltimore Orioles (10-16)
    This Orioles team which was expected to be bad has been bad. Offensively they rank 26th in Runs Scored, 21st in Team OPS, and 25th in Team wRC+. On the pitching side they rank 19th in Team ERA, T-24th in Team WHIP, and 27th in K%.
    12. Oakland Athletics (10-15)
    The A's have been terrible offensively in the first month of the season, ranking 22nd in Runs Scored, 29th in Team OPS, and 26th in Team wRC+. Their pitching staff hasn't been any better, ranking 25th in Team ERA, T-18th in Team WHIP, and 25th in Team ERA-.
    11. Texas Rangers (10-14)
    The Rangers, despite some of their aggressive offseason moves, have not been a good team. Offensively, they rank 17th in Runs Scored, 23rd in Team OPS, and 22nd in Team wRC+. While their offense hasn't been great, their pitching staff has been dreadful, ranking 25th in Team ERA, T-22nd in Team WHIP, and 26th in Team ERA-.
    10. Boston Red Sox (10-16)
    The Red Sox had one of MLB's most explosive offenses in 2021. This group, however, has greatly disappointed thus far in 2022, ranking 24th in Runs Scored, 26th in Team OPS, and 29th in Team wRC+. On the pitching side they've been better but still not good, ranking 18th in Team ERA, 13th in Team WHIP, and 17th in Team ERA-.
    9. Seattle Mariners (12-14)
    The Mariners have been league average offensively. Their offense ranks T-15th in Runs Scored, 16th in Team OPS, and T-6th in Team wRC+. Their pitching staff has been average to slightly above, ranking T-12th in Team ERA, 16th in Team WHIP, and 18th in Team ERA-.
    8. Chicago White Sox (11-13)
    The White Sox have been arguably the most disappointing team in the league thus far in the season. Offensively, they rank T-27th in Runs Scored, 24th in Team OPS, and 23rd in Team wRC+. On the pitching side, they've been about league average, ranking 16th in Team ERA, 24th in Team WHIP, 15th in Team ERA-, and 4th in K%.
    7. Cleveland Guardians (12-13)
    Unlike many Guardians teams of the recent years, the offense has been the highlight for these Guardians. Offensively, they rank 8th in Runs Scored, 6th in Team OPS, and T-4th in Team wRC+. Also unlike many Guardians teams of the recent years, the pitching staff has been the lowlight for these Guardians. Their pitching staff ranks 21st in Team ERA, (surprisingly) 10th in Team WHIP, 23rd in ERA-, and 18th in K%.
    6. Toronto Blue Jays (16-11)
    Toronto has been the definition of mediocre. They've been average offensively, ranking 9th in Team OPS, 18th in Runs Scored, and 14th in Team wRC+. Their pitching staff has also been average, ranking T-17th in Team ERA, 13th in Team WHIP, and T-16th in Team ERA-.
    5. Minnesota Twins (15-11)
    The Twins' pitching staff has been surprisingly good in the first month of the season, ranking 8th in Team ERA, 8th in Team WHIP, and 9th in Team K%. Offensively they've been above average, ranking 13th in Runs Scored, 10th in Team OPS, and 6th in Team wRC+.
    4. Houston Astros (15-11)
    The Astros' pitching staff has been superb through the first month of the season, ranking 5th in Team ERA, 5th in Team WHIP, and T-6th in Team ERA-. Their offense, however, has not been as good, ranking T-20th in Runs Scored, T-19th in Team OPS, and 15th in Team wRC+.
    3. Los Angeles Angels (17-10)
    The Angels have been excellent offensively, ranking T-1st in Runs Scored, 3rd in Team OPS, 2nd in Team wRC+, and 8th in Team Offensive WAR. Pitching has been an issue for Angels teams of the recent years, but thus far their pitching staff has been above average, ranking 14th in Team ERA, 4th in Team WHIP, 14th in Team ERA-, and 13th in Team Pitching WAR.
    2. Tampa Bay Rays (16-10)
    The Rays have been led by their pitching staff which ranks 6th in Team ERA, 3rd in Team WHIP, and 5th in Team K%. Offensively they aren't as strong but still are respectable, ranking 11th in Team OPS, 11th in Runs Scored, T-4th in Team wRC+, and T-4th in Team Offensive WAR.
    1. New York Yankees (18-7)
    This Yankees team has been firing on all cylinders thus far. Offensively, they rank 2nd in Team OPS, 6th in Runs Scored, T-1st in Home Runs, T-1st in Team wRC+, and 2nd in Team Offensive WAR. On the pitching side, they rank 2nd in Team ERA, 2nd in Team ERA-, 7th in Team WHIP, 6th in K%, and 2nd in Team Pitching WAR.
     
    Those are my rankings. What are your rankings? Share them below!
  4. cHawk
    Our Minnesota Twins start the 2022 MLB Season at 11-8 and are 1st Place in the American League Central Division.

    It’s a Small Sample Size, but the Twins have shown both areas of strength and areas of weakness in their first 19 games. Today, we’re going to analyze the following four items and label each as either a strength or a weakness:
    • Starting Pitching
    • Relief Pitching
    • Offense
    • Defense

    Starting Pitching: Strength
    One of the biggest surprises for the Twins thus far in 2022 has been the starting pitching. The Twins’ starting rotation was predicted by many to be an average to slightly above group. However, the numbers say this group has greatly exceeded expectations in the first 19 games. A few stats for you:
    Team SP ERA: 2.39 (2nd)
    Team SP Opp BA: .205 (5th)
    Team SP WAR: 1.9 (5th)
    Team SP WHIP: 1.01 (3rd)
    Team SP HR/9: 0.80 (8th)
    Team SP BB%: 6.1% (4th)
    Team SP K%: 22.5% (14th)
    Team SP WPA: 1.31 (4th)
    Team SP LOB%: 81.9% (2nd)

    It’s fair to say this group has greatly exceeded expectations through the first 19 games. Dylan Bundy, Chris Paddack, and rookie Joe Ryan have led the rotation, combining for 53.0 IP and 1.8 WAR (0.6 WAR each).

    Relief Pitching: Weakness
    The Twins’ relief staff was one of the main contributors the the team’s early collapse in 2021 (Mostly due to a reliever who shall not be named blowing several saves). While it hasn’t been as much of a burden on the team so far in 2022 as it was in 2021, it has been a problem and the numbers reflect that:
    Team RP ERA: 3.94 (21st)
    Team RP Opp BA: .241 (27th)
    Team RP WAR: -0.3 (28th)
    Team RP WHIP: 1.38 (27th)
    Team RP HR/9: 1.39 (28th)
    Team RP K%: 23.8% (16th)
    Team RP BB%: 10.8% (25th)
    Team RP WPA: 0.15 (18th)
    Team RP LOB%: 80% (5th)

    One of the main reasons that this group has struggled is that Tyler Duffey and Caleb Thielbar have struggled, despite being effective for the Twins in the past. Tyler Duffey has a team worst -0.76 WPA, and Caleb Thielbar has a -0.35 WPA. If this group is going to be league average, those two are going to need to figure it out.

    Offense: Middle of the Road
    This Twins offense had potential to be one of baseball’s most explosive units. In some ways it has. In other ways it hasn’t.
    Team Batting RS: 75 (17th)
    Team Batting BA: .225 (20th)
    Team Batting OBP: .314 (13th)
    Team Batting SLG: .369 (16th)
    Team Batting OPS: .683 (17th)
    Team Batting: wRC+: 107 (15th)
    Team Batting K%: 24.6% (25th)
    Team Batting BB%: 10.6% (4th)
    Team Batting HR: 20 (9th)
    Team Batting WAR: 2.1 (17th)
    Obviously this group has its strengths and weaknesses. It’s fair to say that it was expected that this offense would rank high in HRs. But what really sticks out to me about this group so far is the BB%. They ranked in the 15-20 range every year from 2019-2021, but they’ve jumped all the way to 4th in 2022. I don’t know what caused this large leap, but I do know that more walks lead to a better offense.
    And in case you didn’t hear, Byron Buxton is good at baseball.
    The biggest problem with this group by far has been the K%. They rank 25th in the MLB with a 24.6 K%.

    If you add all of the stats up, the Twins’ offense has been middle of the road. If the Twins want their offense to be Top 10 in MLB, they’ll need to lower the Team K% and increase the Team BA. As the weather gets warmer, that may very well happen. We’ll see.

    Defense: Middle of the Road
    From Jorge Polanco’s terrible defense at SS to Luis Arraez’s terrible defense at 3B, defense has been a problem for the Twins over the last couple of years. In theory, this defense should be pretty good. A speedy Buxton in CF combined with Carlos Correa at SS and Max Kepler in RF sounds awesome.
    So far in 2022, the Twins’ defense has a FP of 98.8% (11th) and has committed 4 Errors (12th). There isn’t a lot to say here. The Twins’ defense has been about average and hasn’t made any game-losing blunders thus far.

    To recap, the Twins’ starting rotation is the main reason for their winning streak. Their relief staff has coughed up multiple leads. Their offense and defense have been up and down. If the Twins want to be a contender in 2022, they will need to shore up their relief staff and lower their strikeout numbers. Their starting staff will also need to continue to perform well.
  5. cHawk

    Mid-Offseason Reflection and Grade

    By cHawk,


    Twins Stuff
    While we are undergoing the lockout, nothing can be done by any team. So I think this would be an appropriate time to look over what has been done this offseason and discuss what to expect after the end of the lockout, and what the Twins still need to do.

    Buxton extended
    When we were all down on the Twins’ FO and thinking that a trade was inevitable, the Twins got it done. The Twins and Buxton agreed on a 7-year, $100M extension with incentives. That’s $14.29M per year base salary. So essentially Buxton needs to put up at least 12.5 WAR over 7 years for this contract to be worth it. Is that a reasonable expectation?
    Well, unless he has a major injury, (that would take him out for multiple consecutive seasons) yes, as he put up 4.2 in 61 games this past year. And that never looked like a fluke, as the guy has been a generational talent since he was drafted. As I said, there are also incentives in this contract (I think he makes an extra $8M per MVP award?) which of course make sense.
    All in all, I cannot sing enough praise for this extension.

    Dylan Bundy signed to one-year deal
    The Twins went into this offseason needing major upgrades at SP. They needed a big time addition, and that addition is…
     
     
    Dylan Bundy.

    Yeah, I wasn’t too excited about this signing. It looked like another dumpster dive by a FO who has a reputation of doing that with pitchers. That being said, this FO has had success with this strategy in the past (ok, not in 2021, but in other years) so I’m willing to give Bundy a chance. Unlike Happ or Shoemaker, Bundy is in his late 20’s, so he’s significantly younger and therefore probably has more upside.


    As I look at these numbers, Bundy’s best pitch over his career according to run value has been his slider. That was probably the main thing about Bundy that Falvey and Levine were interested in.
    However, he was bad in 2021. Very. bad…

    The Twins will be counting on a bounce back year from Bundy. His ceiling IMO is what he was in 2020, where he put up 2.0 WAR in 90 IP.
    Further needs after the end of the lockout
    Well, I don’t think I need to say it. Do I?
    Actually?
    Of course the Twins need top of the rotation help. Bundy, Ryan, and Ober can be a very solid back of the rotation, where you could be pleasantly surprised if Ryan ends up being much more.
    But the Twins still need 2 starters and about 4-6 bullpen arms. Many on this site have called for the Twins to sign former Chicago White Sock Carlos Rodon, who was a Cy Young Candidate in 2021. This would definitely be a target for me. I would also look to acquire a young, top-end starter with team control via trade. I would then add quality arms on the cheap in the bullpen, and address the need of a shortstop (not with Simmons, thank you very much).
    What should expectations be for the Twins in 2022?
    This is the million $$$ question. Of course, there’s no guarantee the Twins are going to do any of the 4 things I suggested. In fact, it’s very likely they’re not going to do all four things I suggested. If they want to contend in 2022, they should, IMO, look to do these 4 things (and maybe more). If they want to go all in on ‘23 or ‘24, IMO they should look to find long term solutions to these four needs. If they want to rebuild, well, Falvey and Levine should walk. Rebuilding after 5 years is inexcusable.
    Mid-Offseason Grade: Incomplete
    So that’s what I think on this subject. I now want to hear what you think. Share your thoughts down below!
  6. cHawk
    With the Buxton turmoil recently and much of the negative eye on the FO, there hasn’t been much talk about Baldelli. However, Baldelli has received just as much heat from this site over the past 7 months as the FO has. I’ve touched on Baldelli before in this thread, but that was incredibly one sided toward Baldelli and I never really talked about some of my criticisms toward Baldelli. Also, that was written in May. It is now November. Time has passed and we have more to look at. Baldelli now has his first losing season.
    I’m going to look at some of the things I think make Baldelli the right guy for this team and I’m also going to look at some of the things I think make Baldelli not the right guy for this team.
    Why he’s the right man for this team
    The Twins had a real clunker of a season in 2018. Paul Molitor was fired as a result, and Baldelli was hired. Many other changes were made to the coaching staff as well. In 2019, the team looked much better and played really well throughout the year, en route to 101 wins. The team simply played much better under Baldelli, which implies good things about the manager. Even if you include the awful 2021 season, the team has averaged 88.6 wins per season (162 games) throughout three years under Baldelli. That’s better than any season they had from 2011-2018.
    This might not look like much in terms of the things going for Baldelli, but the case here is that it doesn’t need much explanation.
    Why he’s not the right man for this team
    My first critique of Baldelli is that his team, particularly in 2021, looked poorly prepared. IMO, it hasn’t been talked enough how much this team struggled with the fundamentals of baseball. Failing to make the most basic of plays. I watched every game through late May (after May not every game, but most games) and I saw this team fail at the fundamentals, comedically at times. This could be attributed towards a coaching staff as a whole, but Baldelli is a pretty big part of that.
    I talked about how the team performed better under Baldelli in the Pros section, but there are times where I wonder if Baldelli is getting less out of his team than the sum of its parts. To me, the biggest example of this is the 2020 Wild Card Series against the Astros. The Twins were favored to win, but they didn’t even show up to the ballpark. They lost the series without a single victory. Many on this site lamented about poor relief work, and while I agree that the bullpen was not good, you can’t overlook the fact that this team scored 2 runs in 2 games against a pitching staff composed entirely of Zack Greinke, Ryan Pressly, and a bunch of rookies. The Twins offense was underwhelming in 2020, but they were at least competent, especially at home. This is not a case of an incapable lineup being exposed, this is a case of everyone performing well below their talent level in a situation of high magnitude. It’s been obvious since January of 2020 that Mike Zimmer would consistently get less out of his Vikings than the sum of their parts, and I’m wondering if the same thing is happening with Baldelli. The 2020 Wild Card Series isn’t the only example of this, I also think that parts of the 2021 season are an example. This team had dog**** offensive performance after dog**** offensive performance for much of the beginning of the season, with the occasional 12-run blow-up.
    All and all, those are my thoughts about Baldelli. What do I think his future should be on the Twins? As of right now, IDK. I want to say he would be on the hot seat for 2022 but right now, next season is on the FO. They need to untangle themselves with the Buxton situation and fill out a pitching staff. If they can do that, Baldelli should then be on the hot seat at the start of the season. But if they can’t and decide to punt 2022, it wouldn’t be Baldelli’s fault if the team doesn’t do well.
    That was a lot. I think I’m going to go eat a cookie now.

  7. cHawk

    ALCS/NLCS Predictions!!!

    By cHawk,


    Non-Twins Stuff
    Welp, I was 1 for 2 on my Wild Card picks and 2 for 4 on my Division Series picks. Let’s do the Championship Series’ now. Once again, take these with a grain of salt.

    ALCS (C as in ”Cheaters”): Boston Red Sox vs. Houston Astros
    If you told me at the beginning of the year that the Red Sox would make the ALCS I would’ve laughed at you. Yet here they are.
    This matchup looks like a pretty good one. Both teams have great lineups that both hit for a high average and score a lot of runs.
    However, I do look back at the Division Series with the Red Sox and the Rays and I see how their bullpen has coughed up late inning leads in back-to-back games. That raises a few questions. On the other side, the Astros bullpen has been better at protecting leads.
    This should be a really good series but I think that the bullpens will make the difference of who’s moving on here.
    Prediction: Astros win in 7 games

    NLCS: Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Atlanta Braves
    We see a rematch of last year’s NLCS this year. LA and Atlanta.
    Both teams have highly capable offenses that should match up well with each other.
    Both teams also have competent pitching staffs. But I have to say that the advantage in the pitching goes to the Dodgers, because they have both the better #1 Starter and the better #2 Starter (Scherzer>Morton and Buehler>Fried).
    The Dodgers will be a far tougher test for the Braves than the Brewers. Their pitching staff is just as good (and the Brewers pitching staff did hold Atlanta to 3 runs/game last series) but their lineup is far better. The primary reason the Brewers lost is because nobody in their lineup was able to step up.
    So, if the Dodgers can consistently put up 4+ runs/game in this series, they’ll win the series. What are the odds of that happening? Pretty high I’d say, they’re the Dodgers!
    Prediction; Dodgers win in 5 games
    I’ll do my World Series predictions when it comes around. Please give me your feedback on how right or wrong I am!
  8. cHawk
    October baseball is upon us. 10 teams battling for a World Series trophy. Only one will win it all. I will make predictions for each round. I will pick a winner from each matchup, and a # of game(s) (or score for the Wild Cards) that series is going to go. Today, I’m only going to do the Wild Card and Division Series.
    After you read, please share your opinion down below. How wrong or right am I?
    WARNING: Take my predictions with a grain of salt.
    Let’s get started.

    Wild Card: St. Louis Cardinals vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
    The road to the World Series begins in LA, where the defending champs host the red-hot St. Louis Cardinals.
    The Cardinals are not long off from a 17 game win streak. They also swept the NL Central winning Brewers in that stretch. However, they were stifled up a bit to end the year.
    The Dodgers are the defending champions, have a world class pitching staff, and have a deep-af lineup.
    Comparing the two teams? Talk about a no contest matchup. The Dodgers are by far and out a more complete team than the Cardinals. Expect a shutdown performance from the Dodgers’ world-class pitching staff.
    Prediction: STL - 0, LAD - 4

    Wild Card: New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox
    The most heated and long-lasting rivalry in all of baseball will meet in the AL Wild Card Game at Fenway Park.
    For the SP matchup, you will see Gerrit Cole for the Yankees and (most likely) Chris Sale for the Red Sox (on short rest, as he also only threw 62 pitches on Sunday). That’s a wash matchup.
    What’s not a wash matchup is the bullpens. The Yankees’ bullpen was a little shaky at the ASB, but it has looked good down the stretch. The Red Sox bullpen has looked rather vulnerable.
    This will end up costing the Red Sox the game.
    Prediction: NYY 5 - BOS 3

    Division Series: Atlanta Braves vs. Milwaukee Brewers
    (I’m doing these in no particular order) The first Division Series has the NL East-winning Atlanta Braves taking on the NL Central-winning Milwaukee Brewers.
    Comparing stats, this series looks like Atlanta’s offense and Milwaukee’s pitching and defense.
    Atlanta’s Batting Stats:
    Runs Scored: 8th
    Home Runs: 3rd
    BA: 11th
    OPS: 9th
    Milwaukee’s Pitching Stats:
    ERA: 3rd
    WHIP: T-3rd
    HR Against: T-4th (fewest)
    That will be what it comes down to. And I think the Brewers will come out on top, simply because they’ll have too much pitching. Keep in mind that the Braves won a pretty bad division. Also, the Braves will be missing Ronald Acuña Jr. for this series. That’s a pretty big hit. I think the Brewers pull this one out pretty comfortably.
    Prediction: Brewers win in 4 games


    Division Series: New York Yankees vs. Tampa Bay Rays
    Coming off a big win against a familiar foe in the Wild Card game, the Yankees will head to Tropicana Field for a best-of-5 with the Tampa Bay Rays.
    The Rays biggest strength is obviously their bullpen. They have the highest RP WAR in MLB, but the Yankees aren’t that far behind.
    When it comes to offense, the Yankees have the edge. They’re better at most positions than the Rays (Baseball Savant Rankings). The Rays might have a higher Offensive WAR, but the Yankees did deal with key injuries early in the year.
    The Yankees also have an advantage at SP WAR. The Yankees rank 6th whereas the Rays only rank 15th.
    These two teams have battled it out during the Regular Season, and it’s been a pretty even matchup. I’ll take the Yankees for their SP and Offense.
    Prediction: Yankees win in 5 games

    Division Series: Chicago White Sox vs. Houston Astros
    I’m not going to be biased and quickly say “Astros in 3” because I hate the White Sox.
    From all the Division Series matchups, this one looks like the best by far. Both teams are ranked Top 10 in ERA, WHIP, and Fewest HR Allowed.
    Both teams also are ranked in the Top 10 (Offensively) in each RS, HR, BA, and OPS (except the Sox are 19th in HR). Also remember that the White Sox were missing Luis Robert and Eloy Jimenez for a large portion of the year. Both will play in this series.
    The rosters for this series are a toss up.
    However, the Astros:
    - Will play 3 of 5 games at home
    - Are (much) more experienced
    - Have made the Championship Series in 4 consecutive years
    They’re bound to make it again, right?
    Prediction: Astros win in 5 games

    Division Series: Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Francisco Giants
    One of the most intense rivalries in baseball. Dodgers and Giants. These two teams have the Top 2 records in baseball, have been the Top 2 in BR/theAthletic Power Rankings (yeah those are meaningless).
    Both teams are Top 3 in Team ERA, WHIP, and HR against. Both teams are also Top 10 in RS, HR, BA, and OPS.
    The stats make this look like a toss up. BUT…
    The Dodgers have a better roster than the Giants. They hold the advantage at most positions. The Dodgers are also the defending champions, and are more experienced. The Giants, in comparison to the Dodgers, appear to be smoke and mirrors. I will eat crow if I’m wrong.
    Prediction: Dodgers win in 4 games
    So those are my predictions for the first 2 rounds of the playoffs. I will do Championship and World Series predictions when those rounds come around.
  9. cHawk

    What I think

    By cHawk,

    The Twins’ bullpen has been one of thee worst in baseball, no question, the last 10 games. Like, apocalyptically awful. Why?
     
    I want to hear what y’all think. Who’s to blame for this? How do we fix it? CAN we fix it (prior to the trade deadline)? Will the bullpen be a thorn in our side until then? Or has this awful stretch been a fluke?
     
    I’ll give my answer. I think it’s a combination of:
     
    1) Lackluster Construction; Bullpen help was a need this offseason. We were losing Trevor May, Tyler Clippard, Matt Wisler, and the 37-year old junkballer. Three of those guys were very effective in 2020, and they needed to be replaced. They got Colome and Robles. And I don’t have a problem with those two guys on their own. They’ve both had a lot of success with their previous teams. And as I’ve said, relievers are dime a dozen. That being said, we don’t have enough arms. Rogers, Duffey, Alcala, Robles, and Colome is pretty much all we have. And most of those guys appear to be struggling, and might not be the same guys we’ve seen. Alcala is still unproven. Duffey appears to be losing fastball velo and Rogers can’t control his pitches. Same with Robles. And don’t get me started on Colome.
    And I don’t think we have any other good relievers. I am not a fan of Dobnak or Thielbar. Those of you who are pissed at the FO about this, you absolutely have a right to and should be pissed. Not good FO work.
     
    2) Bad In-game Management; This was a problem last year, with, for example, Sergio Romo and Caleb Thielbar on the mound in the ninth inning of a 1-1 playoff game. Why? IDK. Both of those guys throw 83. Who should’ve been out there? IDK, maybe Alcala? But it’s also been apparent this year. Rogers was cruising, retiring 7 straight. You need that game, put the struggling Colome out there in the 9th? Letting him throw nearly FIFTY pitches? How about in the 4th Game against Boston, where Pineda was cruising. You go to the bullpen at that point? ?? Again, Rocco deserves the blame he’s getting, he’s been AWFUL thus far
     
    3) Underperformance; It seems like the likes of Rogers, Duffey, and others have not been performing well. Rogers and Duffey have been good for us in the past, why do they look like hot messes now? If Colome is that bad, why was he as good as he was with Chicago? How do you go that quickly from being one of the league’s better relievers to being that bad?
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