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Jim H

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Blog Entries posted by Jim H

  1. Jim H
    While I expect this is a different view than most of the people frequenting this site hold, I don't really care which free agent pitchers the Twins sign this offseason. I expect the Twins to sign 2 free agent pitchers, and perhaps even a 3rd "flyer" of some sort. I have no favorites and really don't think it matters who the Twins sign or necessarily, for how long.
     
    First of all, I don't think there are any difference makers out there(With the possible exception of Tanaka). Many could possibly give you a very good season, but are clearly unlikely to do that for the length of a multi-year contract. A very good season in 2014 from any free agent pitcher, isn't by itself going to turn the Twins into a contender in 2014. Even 2 free agent pitchers having such seasons won't.
     
    The Twins pitching staff needs some immediate help. John Bonnes wrote recently that the Twins Daily crew had identified 16 free agent pitchers better "than Correia". Beyond the fact that this is a rather low bar, he didn't set out their criteria. My guess is they are including guys who were better than Correia but haven't pitched much recently due to injuries. He could also be including guys who should be better than Correia but haven't been (like Hughes). In any case this is a pretty small pool, when you consider the fact the at least 25 major league teams are likely looking for starting pitching help. The odds of the Twins actually being able to get any of the guys they really want with that much competition, isn't very good.
     
    The only way for the Twins to get significantly better is through internal improvement. The young former prospects like Hicks, Arcia, Plouffe, Dozier, etc. have to get better. The youngish starting pitchers(Diamond, Worley, Deduno) need to be able to pitch to their fairly recent major league success. The near ready prospects like Gibson, Darnell, Pinto need to perform like we think they can. And finally, and most significantly, the true impact prospects(Sano and Buxton) need to get to the majors and be something of an impact, almost immediately.
     
     
    The potential free agent pitchers the Twins could sign and will sign, don't really matter very much. Unless some of the above begins to happen, the Twins won't get better. Not in any meaningful way.
     
     
    That doesn't mean the Twins shouldn't sign any free agent pitchers. They should and will. It doesn't mean they shouldn't sort through the available free agents, carefully and throughly. They need some immediate help and should get it. But, no matter who they get, the pitching help won't be that impactful. Also, the longer the contract the Twins are forced to give, it becomes extremely doubtful that pitcher will provide any help the last year of that contract.
     
    I hope that the Twins get a bit lucky in their free agent signings. I hope whoever they sign stays healthy. That isn't all that likely with most of these guys. I actually hope the Twins can sign whoever they really want to fairly short contracts. When the Twins start getting good again, well there is no way to know what they really will need and how much it will cost to get it. I don't want to see resources tied up in long term pitching contracts or least not to any of the guys available in this free agent class.
  2. Jim H

    Opinion Versus Fact

    By Jim H,

    One of the things we all do is state an opinion believing or suggesting it is fact. Often on this site and others, certain opinions often are treated as fact, even though they often aren't even all that well supported by the evidence. The latest opinion to be treated as fact is that it is much better to bat Mauer 2nd than third. It seems to be believed that batting him 2nd instead of Dozier/Carroll will create 1.5 or more wins for the Twins this coming year. Lets look at this for a bit.
     
    Moving Mauer up to 2nd spot and Dozier/Carroll down will indeed take approximately 150 PA's from Dozier/Carroll. Mauer will get, maybe 30 of those if he plays in close to 162 games. Assuming Mauer has roughly 100 points more in OBP than Dozier/Carroll, that nets you about 3 additional baserunners for the entire season. The other 120 PA's will go to the rest of the batters who are moved up a spot. Most of these will have better OBP than Dozier/Carroll but the advantage won't be anywhere near that of Mauer. It is even likely that Dozier/Carroll will have a better OBP than at least one of guys batting in front of them. An educated guess would suggest that moving Dozier/Carroll down to the 8th spot might net additional baserunners between 3 and 7.
     
    Now, you also get an additional boost because all of these hitters have a better slugging percentage than Dozier/Carroll. So perhaps you get 10 extra baserunners and an additional extra base or 2. I am not sure how you turn a possible extra 10 baserunners scattered throughout the season into 1.5 or more wins. I think that the extra possible 3 or more runs would be statistically insignificant when stretched over an entire season. More, I don't believe it would actually result in any additional runs at all.
     
    Batting Mauer 3rd, even with a no. 2 hitter who only gets on base 30% of the time, would mean that Mauer will have roughly 50 extra baserunners on base in front of him in the 1st inning alone(based on 30% times 162 games). Since Mauer is the team's best hitter and best hitter with RISP, it is quite likely that giving Mauer more chances to hit with RISP will make up for the possible loss of baserunners by putting Dozier/Carroll in the 2nd spot.
     
    What I am suggesting here, does require that whoever the no. 2 hitter is, he has to manage a decent on base percentage. There is no way to know if Dozier can manage that, at this point. That is likely why Mauer is currently hitting 2nd. What I am really saying is, it is not a slam dunk that the team is "better" by having Mauer hit 2nd. That is an opinion. You can make some strong arguments to support that opinion. Just as I can make at least one argument to support batting him 3rd.
  3. Jim H

    Better than the Numbers

    By Jim H,

    The phrase "better than his numbers" was a recent quote by Terry Ryan concerning newly acquired starter Kevin Correia. Now, I admit I have no idea whether Correia is "better than his numbers". I don't remember having seen him pitch and I haven't followed his career. The question for me is, is any pitcher "better than his numbers"?
     
    It is an interesting question for many reasons. A large part of discussion about Jack Morris' suitability for the Hall of Fame centers around this question. Many of his supporters suggest that the numbers or at least the traditional numbers, understate his value. Certainly, we have all seen a game where a pitcher was "better than his numbers". Occasionally we will see a pitcher give up a bunch of runs in an inning where there were no well hit balls and every hit seemed to perfectly but softly placed in the right spot.
     
    Many pitchers seem to pitch better than their secondary numbers suggest they should, at least for a while. Sometimes for a long while. Blackburn, despite the vitrol sent his way in the blogsphere, was largely the Twins best pitcher for 2 years. Till injuries set in or the league caught up to him, depending on your point of view.
     
     
    I always felt that Brad Radke was better than his numbers throughout his pretty long career. His numbers were solid, but generally suggested a good but not quite a front line starter. My thought is that Radke generally gave the Twins 25 or more starts a year where he gave his team a good chance to win. Quality starts, I suppose. Unfortunately he also had 2 or 3 starts a year where he was putrid. Six or more runs in 3 or less innings. It spoke to, I suppose how fine a line he walked to be a effective major league pitcher without dominant stuff. What those few extremely bad starts did, was take very good stats and make them pretty ordinary. It happened to him every year. Because he never strung together dominant performances like a Santana, his solid, very good pitching got diluted by a few bad starts.
     
    Clearly, even close observers often take in to account certain factors and conclude that certain pitchers were "better than their numbers". Ferguson Jenkins is a good example of this. He was elected to the Hall of Fame despite having slightly inferior numbers to many of his peers. It was thought that the handicap of pitching in Wrigley Field and often playing before an inferior team, depressed his numbers. So it was concluded that Ferguson was indeed Hall of Fame worthy despite his numbers.
     
    So, what does all of this mean? Well it could mean that some prominant bloggers are wrong about Correia. Perhaps, he is one of those pitchers who is "better than his numbers" and will provide useful pitching even if his end of the year numbers don't look that good. Or perhaps he is actually what his numbers suggest, a number 5 starter holding place until someone better comes along. I certainly don't know, but I will look forward to seeing whether Terry Ryan is right about him.
     
     
     
     

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