stringer bell

It is spring training. Who has Escobar gotten his hits from? Were they all singles? With such a small sample size, one good game can change someone's line from marginal to outstanding. I hope Escobar can develop into a regular infielder, but the signs I'm seeing say "utility guy".

With three and four man benches, platooning has diminished. I would expect both Mastro and Ramirez to start some games against lefthanders. The Twins have three veterans (Doumit, Mauer, and Morneau) and Parmelee who will be rested some against LH pitchers. Still somewhere between 2/3 and 3/4 of games are started by righthanders. If Parmelee starts against all righties and a third of the time vs. lefties, he starts about 130 games.

When Parmelee came back from Rochester, he seemed to be swinging the bat well, but just when he seemed to be settling in, it seemed the team faced a bunch of lefthanders, followed by an injury and then his wife having a baby. I think it will be fair to give Parm more than half the season to establish himself. If given that much time, I expect Parmelee to show he is a capable major league hitter.

The club has not looked very encouraging in spring training. Specifically, the starting rotation has been poor and the last spots in the bullpen look like they will be won by default. I am not optimistic about a contender coming out of what the Twins have, at least not in 2013. Let's remember a few things: 1) It is spring training. Guys with their spots assured are not so concerned about results as they may be about working on a third pitch, or hitting the ball the other way etc. 2) The Twins are starting the season with five guys who haven't been big league starters for a full year. This year is about three or four or all five establishing themselves as major league regulars. Perhaps the Twins can get lucky and all five will establish themselves, more likely one or two fail. IMHO, if three players seize their position, it will be a success. 3) The Twins carried exactly one starter from 2012 into 2013. My criteria for success in the starting pitching department is establishing two more, bringing the total of starters pencilled in for 2014 to 3. 4) I expect good up-the-middle defense for the 2013 Twins. Hicks has the tools to be outstanding, Florimon and Dozier have shown good range with a few fine plays in ST, and a healthy Mauer could reclaim his Gold Glove. The corners--not so much--but if the guys catch the ball and throw combined with good middle of the diamond "D", that will be an improvement. 5) The final criteria for success should be improvement in the win column. I think the team needs to win in the 72-78 range to be considered successful in that area.

Gibson will probably be shut down by fall. IMHO, he can pitch his way into the rotation no matter how well or poorly everyone else is doing. I expect him in Minnesota by mid May.

Don't the Twins have the flip side of Drew Butera in the person of Ryan Doumit? IMHO, Doumit offers enough offense as an occasional catcher to make up for his shortcomings as a receiver.

Offensively, Florimon's track record looks substandard to the point that he can't be a regular player. However, he has a better chance at developing an acceptable hit tool than Jamie Carroll has of turning back the clock and also developing extra base pop. Of the four MIs mentioned here, I like Dozier the best. I was extremely impressed with his "D" in Florida, including doing a fine job of turning double plays. He has enough pop to turn on a few pitches and get several extra-base hits. I think he will be a regular until Rosario takes over. I have openly asked if Escobar has the speed and range to be a plus defender. In watching him a few games last year on TV and a few more in person in Florida, I can't tell. If his range is only average or adequate, his good glove and strong arm make him only an average middle infielder defensively and no one is expecting him to be a strong hitter.

Thanks thry. It was two weeks ago today that I saw Robertson set down three major leaguers--he fanned two righties with change-ups and got a weak grounder from Matt Joyce. The gun in Tampa had him at 92-93, I believe, and the change-ups were 81. Maybe something is wrong with his arm. I saw Pelfrey get hit pretty good by most of the varsity Red Sox, but a misplayed roller by Pelfrey and a couple of "duckfarts" hurt him quite a bit, along with a fat pitch to Napoli after he almost got out of a bases loaded jam. His velocity looked okay, but his location wasn't great. I expect him to be up and down, but the Twins might have a bargain if he stays healthy.

When Herrman was sent down I read somewhere that they wanted him to work on outfielding and perhaps learning first base. They used Rohlfing at both first and in the outfield in spring training and now they acquire a guy with experience in the minors as a catcher, third baseman and outfielder. It looks to me like the Twins want backup catchers who are versatile after going years having catchers that only played catcher.

After glancing at the 40-man roster, I just don't see anyone more likely to leave it for Wilkin Ramirez than Drew Butera. I am not a true hater, although I think it is a waste of a roster space to have such a weak hitter taking up one of four bench positions. Drew has value as a receiver and several teams are looking for durable backup catchers.

Mr. Brooks--After a couple of less-than-stellar outings, Pelfrey went 5 today allowing one run on five hits with one walk and four strikeouts. I suspect we'll see that kind of rollercoaster with Pelfrey, at least the first half of the season. As for Worley and Correia, they were both passable middle-of-the-rotation guys in the NL, with Worley being young enough to maybe get better. Spring training hasn't inspired anyone about them, but it is spring training, and they were assured spots in the rotation long ago. I think Gibson will be back fairly soon and put up okay numbers for a rookie, setting the stage to be much better in 2014. Hendriks has a chance, but he has to put ahead in the count and get hitters to go after his pitch, rather than grooving balls to avoid walking guys. I don't think Deduno, De Vrieze, and Walters will ever be more than partial season fill-ins

Regarding the earlier active roster question--it is about paying major league money and granting service time to more people. I remember that there used to be more players alotted at the beginning of the season as well as in September. The 24-man rosters of the 80s was a MLB collusion of all the teams. All teams were permitted to have 25 guys on the roster, but all "chose" to have 24, including, I believe, the Twins' first World Championship.

I think Butera will be DFAed. Other than Theilbar, I think all of the guys on the 40-man roster have a chance to contribute this year. Outrighting Roenicke could leave room for Walters or Ramirez, but not both.

Parmelee just turned 25 last month. I think putting up an .800 OPS as a 25 year old in his first full season would be very good and it could be expected for him to continue to get better. I saw Parm make as good a home run saving catch as you're likely to see, so I guess that filters my pessimism about his glove, but I see him as primarily a first baseman throughout his career.

Thanks buddy. That is what I am here for!

To me, Roenicke makes the club for sure now. Due to his minor league contract, Walters is on the outside looking in. That leaves the real competition between Robertson and Burnett. I saw Robertson's best outing in person and asked JR about it (he was impressed) while I saw Burnett struggle in person. Both have options left, so I'm guessing whoever is more effective this week gets a job to start the season. As for who leaves the 40-man, perhaps the Twins trade Gardy's security blanket or maybe Rohlfing had a strong enough ST that they would consider DFAing Herrman.

I seem to be one of the few who is not enthusiastic about Morneau remaining a Minnesota Twin. If he is good or great, he isn't going to want to sign a new contract, if he is less than that, the Twins won't offer one. After having his series of injuries, I think the Twins would be justified to be very reluctant to sign him to a long-term deal and I doubt Morneau will accept less than three more years from this organization. Add to this that the calendar is not his friend. He will be wearing his age on his back in the first year of a new contract which, I think, further diminishes his value. Morneau has looked good this spring, but the injuries and the age tell me that he won't get past the trading deadline as a Twin. This is particularly true is the Twins feel they have a cheaper acceptable alternative with Parmelee as the first baseman.

I know this: the GM likes his game. Somebody asked Mr. Ryan about Santana last week and considering this was JR, he was effusive with his praise. I'm paraphrasing here, but close. Ryan said his bat really came a long way last year. He said that while he wasn't big, he was strong and determined and that he plays hard.

So, with today's news on Wood, the pitching injuries and rehabs include: Diamond, Swarzak, Harden, Perez, Deduno, Wood. Not exactly an injury-free spring training, but with so many recovering from injuries, I guess it is to be expected.

Escobar will go north, no question. That will give the Twins 5 players for three spots (2B, SS, 3B). Mauer, Doumit, Morneau, Willingham, Hicks, Parmelee, and Mastro brings us to 12 position players. The 13th player looks to me to be between Ramirez and Butera. Ramirez has done well, but (sadly) so has Drew. Clement hasn't hit that well, and really is only a first baseman. Butera is on the 40-man and Ramirez and Clement are not.

I am not terribly optimistic about the Twins' chances. Here are five predictions for 2013. Discuss. 1) The Twins will use more than 10 starting pitchers. 2) Aaron Hicks will be optioned to Rochester at some point this year. 3) At least two players that go north will be traded by the July 31 trade deadline. 4) Pedro Florimon will not start 100 games at SS for the 2013 Twins. 5) Brian Dozier will establish himself as a major league regular at second base.

Best wishes to Joe Benson, one of my favorites. I agree with Seth that this spring hasn't been a failure for Benson. He seemed a certainty for Rochester almost from the first exhibition game. He needs to thrive at Rochester in his last chance as a prospect. If he doesn't thrive, I think he goes from "prospect" to "suspect" and might bounce around the fringes of MLB.

I posted on another thread that I think a Morneau trade is a near certainty. Not as sure on The Hammer, because he has another year on his contract and is playing for well less than market value. I am not a great catching mind, but Doumit isn't a perfect fit here. It is nice that he has some versatility and is a switch hitter, but he should be paired with a righthanded defense-first guy. I think that two of three of Doumit, Morneau and Willingham will be gone by 8/1. Burton could go at the deadline as well, but I think he will do a good job as long as he is healthy. I would think that Duensing would have deadline value as well and would be a trade candidate.

I think Parmelee will be fine, both hitting and fielding. He doesn't have even average speed, so his range will be suspect, but he'll catch what he can get to and throw well enough. I think his numbers will be higher--around or over 20 homers with an OPS north of .800. He will be the Twins first baseman when Morneau is traded (IMHO a near certainty).

Thanks for the report Thry. I do agree with Seth about Parmelee and I think he will hit. Ramirez over Butera? I don't think so, but it would be good news. I can't see Clement making the club mostly because he just hasn't hit that well, but also because he's a LH hitting 1B. We already have two with a third (Mauer) playing there at least occasionally. Correia, Pelfrey, and Worley haven't exactly improved my confidence that the pitching will be better, but the same story is there--they are getting ready for the regular season--they don't have to wins jobs.