stringer bell

Here are my 5 predictions for the 2014 Twins: 1) The Twins sign a free agent bat for more than the contract that they gave Willingham. 2) Eddie Rosario, Miguel Sano, Alex Meyer, and Trevor May make their major league debuts with the Twins. 3) Trevor Plouffe loses his job to Sano, but finishes the season with more PAs, HRs, and a higher OPS than Sano, and is traded at least by the August 31 waiver deadline. 4) One of Scott Diamond, Vance Worley (ineffectiveness) or Samuel Deduno (injury) bounces back to lead the Twins in either victories or ERA. 5) Aaron Hicks returns to the Twins by midseason and provides major league average production from center field.

1. Does anyone think that the Twins will be more hesitant to bring in a Japanese player after the spectacular failure of Nishioka? 2. This will depend on Mauer. If he is even a half-time catcher, spending on a veteran catcher doesn't make much sense. If Mauer is the Twins' new first baseman, I can see signing one of several defense-first guys. 3. I would hope Ryan goes above 3-21 for a pitcher. I'm saying a 51+% chance that he will. 4. Sano starts in Rochester and stays at least until mid-April. If he is great and Plouffe is.....well Plouffe-like, the Twins make the change before Sano is denied super-2. 5. Duensing stays. He's a capable pitcher and even at $2.5M, he doesn't drag down the Twins' payroll much and BTW, he could be a decent trade chip at the deadline.

Realistically, can the Twins sign a top-tier Free Agent? I really don't think so. They would have to overpay significantly because they just can't compete until and unless the young 'uns develop. Somebody in the second tier is possible, I think. That would be somebody with either poor performance or injuries last year, but someone who has shown they can be a #1 or #2. Third tier, the Pelfrey or Correia types, are obtainable. I hope the Twins can sign a decent second tier guy and maybe a third tier guy and get some bouncebacks.

I agree with much of kab's comments. Having the Hammer hitting in the middle of the order isn't all bad and I think he'll hit more like 2012 than 2013 mostly because of improved health and it will be a walk year. I wouldn't be at all surprised to see Sano struggle much like Arcia in 2014--a good amount of power but a disturbing number of K's--when he is recalled. What is important is to develop the young future studs--Hicks, Arcia, Buxton, Sano, Rosario. Whatever the plan for Hicks was last year, it didn't work. I would call the results for Arcia mixed, at best. Next year, we should see the debut of Sano (for sure) and probably Rosario and possibly Buxton. How those guys do, along with Hicks and Sano, will determine much of the success of 2014, at least from a position player point of view. If all five are top quadrant second year players, the future will look pretty bright.

Agree 100% with the Chief. Or as his avatar might say "shazam" or "goolllliie"

Thanks guys for keeping up on this. A couple of the players signed will play in the majors I'm sure. We just don't know which ones. I'm not a big fan of zero power middle infielders, but Beresford has hit better as he has advanced--perhaps he can provide competition for Escobar and also provide major league ready middle infield depth.

The 2012 versions of those guys had some value. The graph doesn't always go straight down (two ex-Twins, Torii and Cuddy, are evidence of that). Both are offense-first guys and if they don't hit, their value is next to nothing. I kind of expect one or both guys to have a good season in their walk year. Perhaps the Twins will get themselves something of value, buts the chances aren't great.

Torii is well-liked and respected. He plays hard between the lines and does what he can to win games and titles. Torii has never gotten in trouble so I would cut him some slack. Hunter likes to hear himself talk and does put his foot in his mouth pretty often. On balance, I'll take what Hunter has to offer and discount or ignore some of his nonsense off the field. In many respects, he is a better player now than he ever was with the Twins.

My opinion is that for much of that time they were the best of a bad lot. The exceptions, to me, are '06 and '10. In '06, they were the best team in baseball in the second half, had a strong relatively deep staff and a well-rounded lineup. In '10, they acquired three players in a "win-now" formula (Thome, Hardy, Hudson), but it all went south about the day they clinched the division.

I agree with the theory of acquiring a good starter who is going to get expensive, because the Twins have the payroll flexibility to pay the guy and offer an extension. Is Baily the right guy? Not sure, but putting up the numbers he has pitching in a bandbox indicates he is a pretty good pitcher. He will get very wealthy in arb this winter, putting two very nice season back to back. If I were the Twins, I would try to give the Reds position playing prospects and limit the pitchers, but it seems the currency of the realm these days is young pitching.

"Saving his chips" were my words. The point is that every free agent which fits Ryan's self-imposed limited budget is flawed. Ryan seems to constantly undervalue mid-tier guys and so the only ones that seriously consider coming to the Twins are the Correias and Pelfreys of the world. Rummaging around the bargain basement sometimes will net a productive player, but it can't be the only free agents added. Additionally, while the Twins farm system looks to have a lot of really, really good position players, I don't think there is enough pitching. They need to add starting pitching from outside the organization.

I thought this article on Terry Ryan was pretty instructive. I think my favorite team has a GM stuck in the 90s, who seems to be "saving his chips" waiting for something that will never come--the perfect free agent. Here's a link to the article by Beradino: Minnesota Twins' Terry Ryan can run from free agency, but he can no longer hide - TwinCities.com If the link doesn't work, it is from yesterday's PP.

Hochevar has a great arm. I think he is worth a look, especially as a potential starter. I expect Sano and Hicks to both open in AAA--Sano, in part to start his service time clock a bit later and for Hicks, he needs to "master" that level--I think moving Plouffe this offseason would be selling low. The hitter I would like to see the Twins acquire is Kendrys Morales, a switch-hitter without a "weak side", who can play first or DH. However, ESPN reports that the Mariners will probably give him a qualifying offer. Welcome to Twins Daily, Dome Dog!

I hadn't thought much about Oliveros, but your case for him makes sense. Let me add that the Twins' bullpen isn't really that solid. Most of the guys slumped at one point or another and there is a need for more good arms in the 'pen.

It is obvious that the Twins need more talent than they currently have. In 2013, besides lacking talent, they had several players who had disappointing seasons compared to their best. Most of these guys will get another shot in 2014. Here are some candidates: Scott Diamond--Had a "breakthrough" 2012 finishing with 12 wins and a 3.54 ERA. His 2013 numbers were ugly. 6-13 with a 5.43 ERA. Vance Worley--Put together a good year and a half with the Phils, but was brutal in 2013 (1-5 with a 7.21 ERA) Ryan Doumit--Had a very good offensive campaign in 2012 and then had a poor 2013. Josh Willingham--Silver slugger winner in 2012 with 35 homers. Dreadful 2013 with a .208 BA and .709 OPS. Jared Burton--Outstanding season in 2012, not so much in 2013--he was 3-2 w/ a 2.18 ERA and .919 WHIP and went to 2-9 w/ a 3.82 ERA and 1.258 WHIP I'll also add Mike Pelfrey--had two seasons of 100+ ERA plus and winning W/L. Last year he was 5-13 with a 78 ERA+. In looking at my bounceback candidates, all but Doumit had injuries account for some of their dropoff. It is unrealistic to expect older players to be healthier, but I still think a couple of these guys will be better next year.

JJ Hardy in his one season with the Twins OPSed .714. He only played 101 games and managed 6 homers. I guess the Twins figured he was in decline already. They certainly were wrong--he's been a real good defensive player for the O's and has smacked 77 homers in the last three years.

I think Presley showed in his brief audition that he's a better offensive player than Clete. Thomas was actually pretty solid in the OF, but you have to hit better than he did to merit continued major league pay. If Presley is the starter at the beginning of the year, he's probably somewhere between 25th and 30th best as a starting CF. I just don't expect him to be the starting CF throughout the summer.

BJ Hermsen? Are you from central Iowa? He's not good enough to be in Triple A. Otherwise I agree with the other 14. Here is another 10 who belong on a 40-man roster (not saying they're all good, but they deserve 40-man space): 15-Aaron Hicks 16-Samuel Deduno 17-Pedro Florimon 18-Jared Burton 19-Ryan Pressly 20-Anthony Swarzak 21-Trevor Plouffe 22-Scott Diamond 23-Brian Duensing 24-Vance Worley

Bernier makes five--still more easy outrights to make.

Good article, Nick. I agree with much you wrote, but have less patience. I think some of the talk needs to be backed up by a changed approach and new personnel. While I think Gardy is a good baseball guy and a good manager, his extension also symbolizes more of the same from a franchise that is a good bet to lose 90+ games for the fourth straight season. Ryan is doig a lot of talking and his rhetoric suggests to me that he hasn't bought in to the realities of this decade--that the Twins are a mid-market franchise, that the team needs to augment their talent by being a player in the free-agent market and that they need pitchers in the rotation that can make hitters swing and miss.

Good article, Nick. I agree with much you wrote, but have less patience. I think some of the talk needs to be backed up by a changed approach and new personnel. While I think Gardy is a good baseball guy and a good manager, his extension also symbolizes more of the same from a franchise that is a good bet to lose 90+ games for the fourth straight season. Ryan is doig a lot of talking and his rhetoric suggests to me that he hasn't bought in to the realities of this decade--that the Twins are a mid-market franchise, that the team needs to augment their talent by being a player in the free-agent market and that they need pitchers in the rotation that can make hitters swing and miss.

Buxton has not played above High A yet. I have seen him in person and I'm impressed, but I be very surprised if he makes his Target Field debut before September 1. Perhaps he'll be Mike Trout, but more likely it will take a bit of adjusting at the higher levels of the minors. I think Hicks will be playing CF for the Twins by May 15. He is going to need to show his potential at Rochester to overcome his struggles this year.

The words got in there didn't they? I like TD and I really like a good discussion without name-calling, demeaning, etc. For the record, my opinion is that Presley is a fourth OF, who'll start the season as the Twins regular CF. I fervently hope that he is replaced by mid-May. If he isn't replaced, the reason for this happening in order of likelihood: 1) No potential replacement has stepped up to demonstrate they could be a regular CF or 2) Presley becomes a bona fide major league CF and leadoff hitter at age 28.

This three year stretch is certainly among the most frustrating I've witnessed and I've followed the Twins since they moved from Washington. After the surprising regular season success in every year but one between 2007 and 2010, I thought the Twins would stay competitive, especially since they were about to (and did) cash in on new stadium revenue. They won 90+ in 2010 without Morneau for half a season and for the entire season without Joe Nathan. Then luck changed, each trade seemed to fail and the farm system couldn't replace the players who left via free agency. The Twins haven't produced many good players in the past five years and they haven't developed enough starting pitching in a long, long time.

I'm sure it would be Presley. I think Mastro gets a chance to be a fourth OF this spring, and if he's healthy, he will get the job. When Hicks returns from exile in Rochester, Presley or Mastro is sent out.