stringer bell

I see that the Twins will use the off-day to skip Duffey's next start. To the point of the OP, Pelfrey absolutely has to pitch well tonight or they will go with other alternatives. I don't see May starting any more games while the Twins have a chance to make postseason, especially with the injury to Perkins. They need him in the bullpen. Darnell did not impress me when he pitched for the Twins last year. He started shaky at AAA, but was very good the last couple months, including about a month as a starter. To me, he is a AAAA guy, as are Dean and Bowden, and perhaps also Rogers, although I think Rogers can be a solid bullpen option.

There was a thread about a month ago when Rosario was going pretty well and the overwhelming consensus was that Rosario might regress, but his performance wasn't fueled by an out-of-this-world BABIB, as Santana's was. I don't expect Rosario to ever be a patient hitter, but I expect his discipline will increase after he has seen most of the pitchers in the league. He's already been a good player for the team as a rookie. A little fine-tuning could make him better, but not a superstar. Rosario's defense undoubtedly has value, not only for the extra outs he generates by throwing out runners, but for runners not taking an extra base, respecting his strong accurate arm. Not all assists are the same and I would say Rosario has had more than his share of "wow!" throws, rather than getting an assist by hitting the cutoff man who catches a runner wandering too far or trying to catch the Twins napping.

Can't do it. He has used his last option this year. If he doesn't make the Twins, they would have to DFA him to get him to Rochester and with the success he had the last two years, someone would claim him.

My very preliminary 2016 roster has Arcia as the fourth OF, getting at-bats as a DH as well to start the season. If Plouffe isn't moved, there is really no place for Vargas. I am pretty sure Kepler won't make the team out of spring training, but I do expect him to make his debut early in 2016, if not when the Southern League playoffs are over this fall.

I see numbers like ERA (for starters, not relievers) as showing what players have done. FIP and xFIP are predictors, sometimes on the button, sometimes way off. FIP and xFIP predict the Twins starters to be pretty lousy going forward. Given the composition of the rotation, I can't dispute that. Through the All-Star break, the pitching staff (and starters in particular) had overperformed their predictors considerably. Regression has occurred and stung Pelfrey and Gibson particularly hard. There are 24 games remaining, each one (I hope) will be crucial. The manager has to determine which guys will give him the best chance of winning. He's giving the ball to Pelfrey tonight, a pitch-to-contact pitcher against a pitch-to-contact lineup. I hope Pelf holds them down and the Twins can score a half dozen again tonight.

Buxton has one trip to AAA, he was sent there for rehab and then optioned. If he were optioned to start (wouldn't surprise me), that would be his second trip to Rochester. Buxton goes back far better than Hicks in center, and seems to get better jumps, so with his speed he is a pretty terrific center fielder. The hitting will take awhile, but I fully expect him to be an offensive weapon sometime in 2016. BTW, comparing Hicks to Buxton isn't apples to apples because Buxton is still just 21 years old, Hicks didn't make his debut until he was 23 and was optioned the last time at age 25.

I expect Texas to overtake Houston. The question is will Houston lose enough for the Twins to overtake them? The Twins are 3.5 behind the Astros who have to play Texas seven times yet.

Overtaking the Twins? Or just beating them several times now in crunch time? Absolutely Cleveland is playing its best ball now and they'll be a tough test in all seven games remaining with the Twins. I can't see the Tribe sneaking into the playoff picture, but I do expect they will be real trouble for the Twins.

There are four games in October that look like they are going to be very important. Add one road game against Cleveland and three home games against the Royals.

I don't agree with everything written above. I will agree that the roster is flawed. Their power is almost exclusively right handed, their best position players are above average power, below average batting average guys. They don't have catching depth and the incumbent catcher has a history of being a poor thrower and pitch framer. There is a crying need to get more high-percentage (and high OBP) guys on the roster, hopefully left handed hitters, like Joe Mauer, prior to last year or perhaps like Max Kepler next year or the year after, hitting before or after Miguel Sano. As far as the pitching goes, I don't know that it is predictable. Except for the elite of the elite, pitchers are really unpredictable. The Twins have a lot of middle-of-the-rotation arms and maybe one or two will be better than that going forward, but if that happens they are beating the odds. The bullpen didn't get help this year from the ballyhooed power arms that started in Chattanooga this year, maybe next year. Also, they added Jepsen and moved Alex Meyer to the bullpen, so perhaps the Twins will join the hard-thrower movement for their bullpen next year. What has changed is defense. Going from Arcia, Schafer, Hunter to Rosario, Buxton, Hicks is huge. Outfield defense might go from biggest weakness to biggest strength. The infield defense is fine, but not particularly rangy and Suzuki is regarded as a good game caller, despite his poor marks throwing out runners and framing pitches. As far as the bench, the Eduardos are pretty good bench players, although Escobar seems to have become a regular. Robinson filled his role very well this year, but he can't be overexposed. The thing is that most of the season, they only had three bench guys and one of them was the backup catcher. They didn't have room for a bat-first guy with power potential. I'm pretty confident that will change over the off-season.

I like Dougie Baseball, but he did have Polanco, Buxton, Sano, Walker, and Kepler and more in his lineup to start the year. If I got them all to the park on time, I'm pretty sure they'd win a lot of games for me. None of those players were disappointments and a couple took steps forward, but they were viewed as top talents coming in.

Is Dean another Anthony Albers or Logan Darnell? I know he's not a hard thrower, but he was very successful at the highest level of the minors. Or is he another Tommy Milone, a lefty without a big fastball that knows how to pitch. On that point, can a rotation afford to have a Milone and another "soft tossing lefty"?

Way to go, top of the order.

I don't know. The ball clearly beat Mauer. Perhaps the ruling was that Conger wasn't blocking the plate because Mauer wasn't yet close enough.

Duh, Pelfry struggling.

While the schedule is pretty tough and the Gophers won't sneak up on anybody, they look pretty good. I'm with Ben, win the axe and hold all the trophies.

Maybe not Good, Bad and Ugly--(Good, Bad and Lukewarm?)--the Twins starting lineup: Good (right now)-Sano, Escobar, Suzuki Bad (currently)-Hunter, Buxton, Plouffe Lukewarm (could change)-Dozier, Mauer, Rosario I caught the game at 4-0 and predicted that despite all the hits that Plouffe, Hunter and Buxton hadn't done anything. Unfortunately, I was right. Right now, not-so-fast Eddie, Sano and Zuke are really going good (Suzuki is going good compared to April-July).

Remember who the two players were in 2009 who scored and drove in the winning run in game 163? Both of those guys had gone from regulars to bench players over the course of that season. I am speaking of Gomez, who scored the winning run and Alexi Casilla, who drove him in.

I got off the golf course and the score was 4-0. I watched on my computer and Chicago scored five straight runs, sat down and watched my TV and Sano homered, then came the nice little three-run inning. I guess I'll stick to watching my TV.

The Twins did very well against left handers early this year, but not so much lately. Their power is basically all right handed, but the power hitters haven't put up big platoon splits.

I hadn't really considered Hamburger, but he has been excellent since some early batterings. Regarding a third catcher, I've been hoping the Twins would make a trade for someone, anyone who can, you know, both catch and hit, bonus points if they can throw out somebody once out of three chances. On Berrios, it seems that all are convinced that he will be an improvement. I don't think it's a guarantee that is actually the case. I'm sure we are undervaluing the necessary roster moves and overvaluing any contribution Berrios would make, but if the club wants to gain ground a secure a wild card a chance should be taken.

Short answers: It varies. No. I have seen teams go with as many as 35 players. That is a lot, but extra relief guys and specialists can be used when there isn't room during the regular season.

To me, the Nolasco thing is much like Pelfrey, but with a much higher price tag. Like Pelfrey, Nolasco hasn't been right physically in his two years with the Twins. Like Pelfrey, he is perceived as standing in front of younger, cheaper, better options. Like Pelfrey, he hasn't had enough success in a Twins uniform for many fans to believe there is still quality in his right arm. It is probably nothing, but during spring training, Nolasco seemed to be the guy who wouldn't be conforming with what ever drill the pitchers were doing. His on-field demeanor has always non-plussed me as well. However, I've seen just enough of the "good Ricky" that I believe there is value there. While the Twins have obvious weak spots in their position players, starting pitching always has to be a high priority. Nolasco can be part of the solution.

Yes, you can!

September 1st is almost here. The Twins play Houston twice more and then they can have the luxury of an expanded roster going forward. They are certain to recall some players and a couple guys have earned a look with outstanding seasons. There are service time and 40-man roster considerations as well. This year, the Twins are in the wild card chase, so they won't recall young players just to get a look at them or grant playing time to see what they can do. The goal will be to recall players who will help them win games. Here's my thumbnail on the possible call-ups: Pitchers: The Twins probably need fortification of a overused bullpen, even though they already have eight guys pitching out of the bullpen. There are candidates for recall at Rochester. AJ Achter--He's had a good year in Rochester. He provided some innings when recalled by the Twins, although his numbers were skewed by his first couple of outings in blowouts. He's a near certainty to be recalled. Michael Tonkin--He has bounced between Rochester and the Twins, recording very good numbers in Triple A, but not doing enough to stay around with the major league club. Tonkin is a big hard-thrower who should provide strikeout potential. I'm sure he'll get yet another shot next month, but so far his development has been a disappointment. Alex Meyer--Bust? Maybe, but he has put together a pretty good stretch out of the bullpen for the last three weeks. Since August 1st, he has allowed only two runs in 16 innings, walking seven, while fanning 14. Meyer has a big fastball and potential to develop other plus pitches. If the Twins were out of the race, he probably would get a bunch of innings. As it is, he isn't certain of a recall--his overall numbers aren't very good. I think the Twins will recall him and see if maybe something has clicked for the big right hander. JO Berrios--Without question, his possible recall will be the most discussed on this site. Berrios is young, hard-working and has mastered two levels in 150+ innings of work in the minors. He has been exclusively a starting pitcher, but could be used as a key bullpen piece because of the number of innings his young arm has thrown. Business considerations are also present for Berrios. He isn't on the 40-man roster and adding service time now may cost the Twins money and a prime season from a guy who might become an ace. Finally, and this is my opinion, it would be nice to reward someone who has had a great minor league season, on the verge of dominant. I think the Twins will resist recalling Berrios for business and innings reasons, but if injury or ineffectiveness (I'm looking at you Ervin Santana!) present a clear role for him, they will call up their top pitching prospect. Position Players: The Twins have operated most of the second half with a three-man bench, hardly the optimum number of bench players. Certainly they will add a couple of hitters, looking for someone to provide a long ball or key pinch hit. Playing time on the field could be tough to get, especially with Aaron Hicks due to return from the disabled list on September 3rd. Kennys Vargas--Vargas has had a disappointing year, starting the season as the Twins' DH, but not holding the job. He has been demoted twice, the second time to AA. The numbers aren't dominant, but Vargas has done well since his second demotion. There is clearly a need for a pinch-hitter with power potential and Vargas would be the first candidate for that spot. Kennys would also be a near-lock to be on the 25-man roster if the Twins squeak into the playoffs. I expect Vargas on the bench for the Twins game on Tuesday vs. the White Sox. Oswaldo Arcia--Similar story to Vargas. He didn't set the world on fire or address his weaknesses while starting the season as the Twins' left fielder. Disabled, then demoted, he has failed to thrive. One hot streak has been overwhelmed by terrible offensive numbers. We don't know if the problem is physical or mental, but right now Arcia can't help the contending Twins to win games. I can't see him being recalled. Danny Santana--Yet another young Twins starting position player who disappointed if not outright failed for the major league team. Santana has been demoted twice and is more than holding his own as a Triple A player. He provides the Twins with some versatility (shortstop and center field) and a viable pinch running option. Santana should be back on September 1. Josmil Pinto--The sad story of 2015 just might have a better ending. Pinto was injured in spring training, optioned to Rochester to "get work" and then struggled and was injured. The problem was one or more concussions, which could spell the end of his career as a catcher. In the last month, Pinto has finally gotten on the field as a DH, rehabbed in the low minors and come back to Rochester. He hit a grand slam the other day and if his hitting has recovered, he could be another bench bat. I don't know if the Twins would consider him as a third catcher or not. Regardless, if the offensive part of his game is healthy, Pinto has shown he can be a big-league hitter. I'm guessing he gets recalled, but won't don the "tools of ignorance" unless there is an emergency. Jorge Polanco--Polanco has had a good year. He has spent the bulk of the season in Chattanooga and shown he can handle AA pitching. He competed well at Triple A and had another cup of coffee with the Twins. Polanco hasn't had a great year defensively. I don't think he profiles as a regular shortstop. As for recall, I don't think it would hurt to have him recalled, but probably only after the Lookouts finish their playoff run. Max Kepler--There is a case for him to be the Minor League Player of the Year for the Twins. He is leading the SL in several categories including the "saber triple crown" of OBP, Slugging and OPS. Kepler is on the 40-man roster and certainly will be looked at as an option in the outfield next year, especially with the implosion of Oswaldo Arcia. I think that he stays put until the Southern League playoffs are over. Depending on what has happened with the Twins in those couple weeks, perhaps he will get a look at the tail end of the season. As with Berrios, he has earned a promotion based on his performance on the field. To summarize, I think the Twins recall Vargas, Santana, Achter and Tonkin for sure. I think Meyer gets another shot and Pinto (if healthy) is added as well. Polanco and Kepler are added after the AA playoffs. Arcia goes home to heal whatever ails him and Berrios is on standby.