Siehbiscuit

I look at the underlying metrics being talked about (launch angle, exit velo, etc) vs the result of the at-bat is similar to what I do at work. I have been in sales for 20+ years and IMO, the salespeople that deliver the best results are those that consistently demonstrate the most consistent behavior. WARNING: Over-simplification coming - If two salespeople each closed 5 deals last month, how can I predict/forecast what each one can or will produce next month? You look at the behaviors of what they are doing (calls made, appointments set, etc). By tracking "leading indicators" and pairing them with the lagging indicators, you can better predict future outcomes. These are similar to the metrics that are being talked about. Players that have a higher barrel rate will tend to get more hits. They'll get unlucky, sure, but more often than not when evaluating multiple things or players the underlying numbers (leading indicators) add more predictive value than just the lagging indicators alone (batting average, OBP, hits, BB, etc).

Shameless plug warning! I have coached college and HS basketball for 17 years and how I would best define character in an athlete is this: Character is showing consistency in doing the right things on and off the court (field). It’s getting your school work done, being in class, being at practice, respecting your parents and teachers and those in authority over you. Are you the kind of kid that would break up a fight if you saw the school yard bully taking someone’s lunch money because it’s the right thing to do?Doing what is ‘right’ is subjective in certain areas, but for the most part most of us quantify it the same way. Those that consistently display and do the right thing (they don’t have to be perfect) are those that I feel have high character. These types of people are the ones you WANT on your team to help build a programs culture, be leaders, as others will gravitate towards them. Character counts, and those that have it, definitely do stand out. The best news is that it is something that can be developed, but you have to be intentional about your choices and be willing to be held accountable. The fact that these two have had their character lauded at such young ages tell me that had great structure and support growing up. Not everyone has great leadership as a youth. Character is simply making right choices on a consistent basis.

Overall, numbers for Stewart in 2018 are somewhat misleading. Like a closer (see Rodney’s April from last year or 2018) and one game or two can really skew numbers. Kohl had a clunker in his 3rd start this year (1.2 IP, 6 H, 6 ER, 1 BB, 1 SO and the loss). If games are 1 game at a time, his team has won 5 of his 6 starts and his average line is looking really good. He is averaging (per start) 5.1 IP, 5 H, 1.6 Runs allowed (2.73 ERA), 1 BB, 5.6 K, 1.13 WHIP, 9.65 K/9 Looks like promise to me.

What does being a two-sport athlete have to do with spreading the signing bonus out over 5 years?

When you are competing the goal is to put the best team together to compete. The offensive holes in the Twins lineup are at 1B (LH - Mauer), DH (LH - Morrison) and the corner outfielders (LH - Rosario and Kepler). Sano can be a right hand bat vs tough lefties and Grossman can fill a gap with his bat in the DH and OF hole. Grossman is NOT a great defender, but when he plays for Kepler or Rosario vs a tough lefty, they can defensive sub in a close game. They are still eligible to play even when they don’t start. We all like Granite, but he is redundant for this team. Grossman has one very good skill and it is the one that is most important in run production: OBP. Grossman can get on base. That is a needed skill vs lefties that makes this team better.

I love your prospect lists, but I will disagree on Palacios likely position. I see very little and almost NO way he is the starting shortstop for Fort Myers. Both Royce Lewis and Wander Javier could hack it there and even one of them may need to bump up or down or to a different spot to accomodate our glut off SS candidates. I look for Palacios to play at a different level or move positions.

I thought there was no such thing as a bad 1 year deal? He may not have much left, but if the Twins can milk the last little bit out of him and its only for at worst $5m what’s the downside? Worst case, the Twins wasted $2.5 million and 3-4 starts. If he’s know good, he’ll get cut when Santana is ready to return.

The best part about so many having different opinions is most that can and have a provided evidence for their reasoning (minus the homeschooling jab) and it makes sense. Baddoo has a huge ceiling. Rooker has amazing power and he's close to the Majors. Kirilloff has a pedigree and a great hit tool. Thorpe, Enlow, etc, etc. The guy that I LOVE is Javier. I guy that no one has questioned his ability to stick at short and has shown a great stick so far. He may not ever have the pop of Royce Lewis, but if his defense is much better, it may be hard to separate them in a few years. I wouldn't be shocked to see the Twins have three SS's (Gordon, Lewis and Javier) all listed as top 25 prospects at some point in their minor league careers.

I think most everyone agrees with your theoretical. Always try and sell when the value is high. BUT...don't sell when for $0.80 on the dollar when you truly aren't desperate. JDL is an intriguing propspect, but he has some major warts (age, "stuff", injury history and lack of innings). JDL could be special, but we know what Dozier is. At worst, we get him for two seasons (and he is not blocking Nick Gordon or anyone else) and we'll get a first round Comp A pick for him at minimum. Bottom line is team's weren't clamping for a 29 year old 2B coming off a potentially fluky season. There wasn't a market, so don't sell him just to sell him.

Unless Ted gave Enlow his number 1: "Ted Schwerzler - 1) Jovani Moran, 2) Carlos Suniaga, 3) Jovani Moran, 4) Jared Finkel, 5) Randy Dobnak," the math has Carlos Suniaga with more points than Enlow. Moran is listed as both FIRST and THIRD. If Enlow I'd 3rd on Ted's voting, Suniaga should be number 2.

While we would all agree that a top 20 overall pitching prospect that is near Major league ready is ideal, we would have to give up Dozier to get that done. Prospect for prospect deals are rarely done. By doing that, then we are conceding completely in 2017. Beating the Astros is a long-shot, no one will disagree with you, but not getting to the playoffs at all, gives you NO shot. Finding a veteran arm, even a rental, for a mid 20s prospect is a step in the right direction of actually making the parent club better. Getting a 2 1/2 year controllable player for a fair price (likely a top ten prospect or two in the teens) is a very valuable piece too. It may be a small gain, but how much different would this team look with them in our bullpen all year vs Breslow and Belisle? There'd likely be 3-4 games more in the W column.

I respect everyone that says promote from within, yet I struggle with us having a "we gotta fix the bullpen, but don't give anything up to do it" mentality. We all love prospects, but forget that so many of them do not pan out. Michael Tonkin has very good minor league track record and has been dominant in the minors (12.7 K/9 currently). It frequently doesn't translate to MLB success. Other franchises values its players too and often we get too attached to our own. Hand is an established Major League reliever and hopefully we can get a guy like Curtiss, Chargois, Reed and Burdi to someday realize their potential and put it all together, but how long have we already been waiting on many of these guys? I thought Tyler Jay would be a quick to the Majors guy? What happened? Don't sell the farm for a rental like Neshek, but IMO, a guy in the mid 20's is reasonable (Niko Goodrum territory) is worth helping the bullpen this year. A guy like Hand is worth giving up a 10-15 prospect or two, IMO (some combination of a LaMonte Wade and/or Daniel Palka). To get good players, you have to roll the dice on your prospects sometimes. Most of the time, the prospects never amount to much. Play to win, both now and long-term.

Over his last ten games, Gordon has drawn 8 BB's. Nice to see some plate discipline.

The people that are frustrated by Lewis as a SS pick, keep in mind that this guy has the potential to be better than Gordon. It may be extra depth, but if Lewis has the ability to be a Franciso Lindor, Carlos Correa or even a Manny Machado-type, why do we care that we have extra Ss's? Btw, most experts think he'll go to CF like BJ Upton did.

I understand the frustration, but I do think people are frustrated because they don't have all the information. Jeremy Nygaard pointed out on Twitter, by drafting Leach at 37 (someone they liked, but is likely signable under slot), they can get a tougher sign guy like Enlow. BUT if Enlow still doesn't sign, which may happen, the Twins only lose $755k ( the slotted value of its 3rd round pick. If they had drafted Enlow at 37 and he still didn't sign (even though the $$$$ offered were the same), the Twins lose the slot bonus assigned to pick 37, which is $1.8M. The Twins can offer Rookers slot value - $1.9M - could get $1.5 Leach - 1.8M - could get $1.5M Enlow - $755k - could get $2M (money from Royce Lewis deal added) Bottom line is a lot of risk is mitigated, by taking a tough sign later, because the Twins only lose $755 bonus money with no Enlow signing.