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ThejacKmp

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Blog Entries posted by ThejacKmp

  1. ThejacKmp
    I was thinking about the trade deadline today. If the Twins are still in it after the All-Star Break and don't have any huge injuries (knock on wood), they're a pretty solid team. It’s hard to see where they’d need massive upgrades.
     
    • The starting rotation almost has too many options so outside of an ace, it makes little sense to get a pitcher. Even then, not sure there’s going to be a starting pitcher available who moves the dial that much.
    • The bullpen has struggled at times but is deep with a lot of options in the high minors. You could make a move but the market on elite bullpen arms is always high and I’m not sure the Twins will have a need that excuses the cost.
    • The starting lineup looks set. Escobar papers over any infield issues and the starting outfield is strong. And with Polanco coming back in the second half (though not the playoffs), SS seems like somewhere the Twins can hold off on an upgrade.
     
    The Twins biggest targets might be more cosmetic and involve the bench. Assuming Castro isn’t gone for long, catcher is set. Infield seems good too with Adrianza and Escobar (elephant in the room about who goes when Polanco comes back).
     
    The big hole for the Twins is a RH 4th outfielder who can soak up some DH at-bats. Rosario and Kepler have hit lefties well but it’d be nice to not be trotting out Grossman so regularly against LH starters. Ryan Lamarre has been a nice story but there’s room for improving the outfield depth on the MLB roster – Grossman can become a 25th man as a switch-hitting bench bat rather than an often-overmatched 4th OF.
     
    The Twins will have some options to upgrade this spot but I’m hoping that Andrew McCutchen will be available and willing to come play a more bit role for a contending team. That last part is no small matter but the Giants have lost Madison and Cueto and look like a team that could plummet down the standings. McCutchen might be interested in tasting the playoffs again?
     
    He would be an ideal fit. He has a career .963 OPS vs. LHP (and 1.131 OPS last year so that's not weighted by early performance). That would be solid in the Twins lineup and would also give them that big bench bat they're looking for when teams bring in left-handed relievers late (McCutchen has a higher OPS vs. LH relievers than LH starters). He’s also a capable corner OF even if he’s no longer a CF.
     
    The cost would likely not be prohibitive. McCutchen is in the last year of his deal and has struggled at times this year. He fetched almost nothing this offseason – middling RH reliever Kyle Crick and Bryan Reynolds, a 2016 2nd round pick OF who hasn’t look special thus far and profiles as a 4th OF or defensive centerfielder. If the Twins are willing to eat $6-8 million in salary, I think they could get McCutchen for someone like 2017 5th round pick Andrew Bechtold. And even that might be too high - I was siding on giving up too much instead of an unrealistic pipedream.
     
    Thoughts on this? I’d feel a lot more comfortable if our lineup against LHP was something like:
     
    1B Mauer ( L )
    2B Dozier ( R )
    DH Sano ( R )
    RF McCutchen ( R )
    LF Rosario/Kepler ( L )
    CF Buxton ( R )
    3B Escobar ( S )
    C Garver ( R )
    SS Polanco/Adrianza ( S )
     
    You could even give Joe a day off and slot Grossman in as DH with Sano playing 1B. Your bench against lefties would be Morrison, Rosario/Kepler, Grossman/Mauer and Castro. That’s not too shabby.
  2. ThejacKmp
    I was reading this article and in the comments section came across this blurb in the comments section concerning the Twins not being able to get FA starting pitching:
     
     
    I don't understand where this assumption comes from. I know that the Twins haven't gone out and gotten this free agent pitcher in the last twenty years but that was also during the Metrodome-era when we realistically couldn't afford it.*
     
    I'm not saying the Twins will be signing David Price anytime soon but if the young field players improve and the Twins have 3-4 starters in place (May, Gibson, Diamond, Meyer?) I can see them finding a starting pitcher in that second rung of free agent pitchers for $10 million/yr - $15 million/yr for 3-4 years and rolling with it. It depends how much they're spending filling other holes (particularly the middle infield and first base) but it remains a distinct possibility.
     
    This is especially true since one of the benefits of trading Span/Revere is that the Twins don't have a lot of their core (and potential core) coming up for big $$$ for a solid 4-5 years. They've paid Mauer, the outfield will be all young guys and outside of maybe Plouffe - and even then he won't be pricey - all they've really got to worry about is perhaps inking Scott Diamond. The team even sheds a ton of salary via Morneau and Willingham this year and next. This is a team that profiles to be incredibly cheap, even with Mauer's well-deserved $23 million, for the next 3-5 years.
     
    That means the Twins will have the flexibility to throw out $10 or even $15 million/yr for 3 years and bring in a more elite starter. Or even two. I get not wanting to sign the seven year pitcher deals (and think its smart businses) but there's a value in the layer underneath. The obvious historical precedent would be Jack Morris, an aging elite pitcher who was available on a short-term high-dollar deal. A less apt one is Carl Pavano the second time - more of a stretch since he was coming off of injuries but in that same ballpark money wise. The point is, there are great #2 or #3 starter types out there who I expect the Twins to sign if the mini-rebuild goes as planned. Who knows who those pitchers will be in the future, but to say the Twins won't be able to go after them seems premature.
     
    Now I know everyone is going to point at the Twins current roster ($90 million-ish?) and say that they're already cutting spending but at least the front office is talking the talk about using that money for a sunnier day. As long as they do tuck that $20 million into a savings account with a nice interest rate (instead of a Pohlad's suit pants pocket) with the idea to make their dollars count, I have a hard time faulting them. This team wasn't going to take a huge jump by signing one solid pitcher this year (much as we'd like it) but that may not be true next year or (more likely) the year after.
     
    Its like a kid knowing that he could buy a crappy Craigslist bike in March and maybe ride when it isn't too cold but instead hoping for some snow so he can shovel some walks and sve the cash get a sweet brand-new bike in June, when having a bike really matters.
     
    -----
     
    *A note on this which is a huge aside and a whole different post: when we say the Twins can't afford it, it's because we ignore the fact that the Pohlads are freaking billionaires. Owning a sports team should be the uber-rich guy equivalent of buying a Maserati - you don't buy it cuz it makes fiscal sense, you buy it because its fun to drive really, really fast and meet some babes. You know, like Mark Cuban.
     
    We forget that behind our mumblings about Bill Smith's trade abilities or Gardy's love of light-hitting middle infielders lurks the beast in the corner - the Pohlads run the Twins like an actual business and as cheapskates at that. The fact that they make significant money off of the Twins is an insult. Especially since the family fortune (that's right, not actually earned by the current trust fund bunch) was founded on Smilin' Carl foreclosing on families during the Great Depression. No really. Wikipedia him. No idea why we celebrated this man when he died. We didn't need to boo but I for one turned the channel. Foreclosing homes, trying to contract the Twins, squeezing every penny of profit out - this guy was Scrooge but without the redeeming flash of insight.
     
    It's almost enough to make a guy like the publicly owned Packers. Almost.
     
    When I think about what the Twins could do if the Pohlads (A) decided to just try to break even each year rather than make a profit ( decided to accept a $20 million loss each year as a public gift or © even accepated a $50 million loss each year (doable since they sold a side beverage business in 2010 for $2.12 billion and also totally tax deductible) it makes me want to cry. And hit someone.
     
    Stupid rich people. I get not wanting to pay taxes, that must suck to have your (hard earned?) money taken away. But let's do some real charity work, let's improve some lives. Life is better when the Twins win. Make it happen Pennypincher Pohlad Jr.
  3. ThejacKmp

    Johan down again

    By ThejacKmp,

    I know ESPN is moronic sometimes but I couldn't believe that I was reading an article where they judged a pitcher based on wins. I thought we were four to five years past that. I'm not asking for advanced stats either, just maybe ERA and strikeouts?
     
     
    Its especially frustrating because Johan was robbed in 2005 for the Cy Young by this very wins mentality. He had an ERA a full .6 lower than Colon (2.87 vs. 3.48), pitched 9 more innings and struck out over 80 more batters but finished third because he only won 16 games while Colon won 21. If baseball writers hadn't been so obsessed with wins and voted for the clearly inferior Colon, he would've leapfrogged Mariano Rivera and won it - giving him three in a row from 2004 to 2006.
     
     
    Especially tough because it would've helped his Hall of Fame case to win three in a row. Right now he's borderline and almost certainly out. He was one of the two best pitchers in baseball (alongside Roy Halladay) for five years in the mid 2000s but the issues with longevity will hurt him as will the fact that his best years came in small market MN while his hurt (though still very productive) years came with big market NY.
     
     
    It'll be interesting to see if he attempts to come back. He's only 35 and it seems his arm was still live but achilles tears at age 35 are brutal and he certainly doesn't need the money. He's 2 good years away from being a much more likely Hall of Famer and I'd love to see him find a way to do that. IMO he's much more deserving of the hall than a guy like Bert Blyleven who pitched for 20 plus years but was never anywhere near the pitcher Johan was. When Johan pitched during those Cy Young years, there was nowhere more exciting to be.
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