Hans Birkeland

I could see Lee needing a full year in the minors but Julien figures to be one of the first reinforcements, similar to Lewis or Miranda last year. He turns 24 in April and has a pretty advanced approach. Do you want the team to trade from its already thin system?

With Luis Arraez off to less green pastures, what kind of lineup combinations can we expect, assuming full (or terrible) health? Image courtesy of © Jeffrey Becker-USA TODAY Sports The Twins would seem to have quite a hole to fill in their lineup, and some utility lost given Luis Arraez’s ability to play multiple positions. The reality is that, as much as we love Luis, his production is replaceable (but not his at-bats), and his fielding is very replaceable. He also would have made it difficult for Nick Gordon, Alex Kirilloff and Trevor Larnach to get at-bats as they each approach the second half of their twenties. So what kind of lineup combinations can we expect this year sans Arraez? With Joey Gallo and Michael A. Taylor aboard, here’s my projection for opening day against a righty: You can quibble with whether Buxton or Polanco leads off (or Gallo for that matter), but I wouldn’t expect much deviation from this configuration, even though I would certainly prefer Gallo further down in the lineup. Lefties dominated Twins hitters last year, especially down the stretch. How will the 2023 team counter? Probably something like this: This is also where I could see the team looking at Luke Voit or possibly Anthony Santander, because it seems like this iteration of the lineup is a bat short. It does have the potential to defend really well, however. If the infield is even average, the outfield alone makes this a top-five defense. Let’s run through a few more just for fun: The Sunday Getaway Day Lineup The Outfield gets Besmirched AGAIN (This one assumes that we suffer the same number of season-ending outfield injuries as last year) The Trade for Anthony Santander (Santander had a .913 OPS against lefties last year and the Orioles are listening) The Miranda Can’t Handle Third (If the team wants to avoid putting Gordon on the infield, this outcome means Larnach is sent down. Hope the sexy new body helps, Jose!) The Lewis and Lee have Arrived and Aren’t Taking Prisoners (AKA what the front office prays for every night) And lastly, my personal favorite: Nick Gordon Leading Off on Opening Day He’ll be the skinniest DH in history, but I’ll bet he makes the score 1-0 more times than you would think. How would you configure the 2023 lineup? Should the team make more additions? Who would you put in the leadoff spot? View full article

It’s been an interesting week. With the heart and soul of the team gone, the team’s overall depth has nonetheless improved. One area they already had a pretty solid plan A (as well as plan B) is the closer role. Who fills the role initially is still up for debate, as some folks prefer to keep Jhoan Duran in a relief ace role, and others are terrified of Jorge López. I’m a little spooked, but speaking of the Twins’ best pitcher, let’s start with him. Image courtesy of © Nick Wosika-USA TODAY Sports In "Fun with Player Comps" I look at player comps for 30 current Twins who figure to play a role in 2023, starting with their closest age player from Baseball-Reference.com before 2022. Based on each player's general vibe, I then move into the best and worst-case scenarios. Previous installments: middle-infield, centerfield, corner guys. Jhoan Duran (No comparables available, but so far I’d go with a more consistent Jeurys Familia) Worst case: John Rocker Also see Powers, Kenny. Sometimes flamethrowing relief aces burn out quickly. Sometimes they turn into Craig Kimbrel, Kenley Jansen, or Joe Nathan. Given Duran’s injury history in the minors, it wouldn’t be surprising for his 2022 season to end up being his best. Any significant injury to Duran would likely torpedo the Twins’ chances in 2023. Rocker embodied all the risk and reward a high-octane closer can give you, starting out unhittable for the Braves in the late 90s, losing a couple of ticks off his fastball, and turning into an ineffective distraction. By all accounts, Duran seems like a more level-headed guy than Rocker. Best case: Jonathan Papelbon Papelbon came on the scene similarly to Duran, posting a 5.3 WPA in his rookie season as the Red Sox closer. That wouldn’t be the only year that Papelbon eclipsed Duran’s stellar 4.6 WPA in 2022, underscoring just how amazing Papelbon was in the late aughts and early 2010s. When his career ended, Papelbon had twelve largely healthy years and a career 177 ERA+. Papelbon was a fastball splitter guy and Duran usually goes with a fastball curve mix, but any sort of relative health with 90% of the stuff for Duran over his career will put him in Papelbon’s company. Jorge López Baseball-Reference best comparable through age 29: Julio Santana I’m not sure Santana was considered much of a prospect coming up with Texas in the mid-90s, as his minor-league numbers are pretty mediocre. But he made quite a few starts in the majors and wasn’t terrible, despite averaging only 5.8 strikeouts per nine innings for his career. He battled injuries, had a nice relief season with the Tigers, and then faded into obscurity. The Twins certainly hope López meets a better fate. Worst case: Bad Jim Johnson Bad Jim Johnson was a holy terror to Orioles fans during their last contention window in the early 2010s. His groundball-heavy approach allowed for a lot of BABIP-related variances. He floundered in the playoffs in 2012 and posted an ERA over seven in his first year away from Baltimore. He ended up with an 87 ERA+ for the rest of his career. López also emphasizes ground balls, which has long been a cardinal sin among closers since ground balls have a higher BABIP than fly balls, and ground ball pitchers tend to amass fewer strikeouts (López struck out under twenty percent of batters as a Twin, which is well below league average). Best case: Good Jim Johnson Good Jim Johnson posted a 139 ERA+ from 2006-2013 with the O’s with a 56.7% groundball rate. He also led the league in saves in 2012 and 2013. López also pitched for the Orioles, you may recall. The Orioles actually had a nice run of successful ground ball closers, as Johnson was eventually replaced with Zack Britton, who for a brief time was historically effective. If López can relax and focus on his location he has a chance for a similar career. Jorge Alcalá (No comparables yet) Worst case: Matt Wisler Wisler was a highly regarded starting pitching prospect with the Padres prior to them flipping him to Atlanta for Craig Kimbrel. He ended up starting 49 games for the Braves, then had injury issues, bounced around, and the Twins signed him in 2020 with the intention of him only throwing his one effective pitch, a regular old slider. That worked fairly well and he hasn’t deviated from that approach since, only increasing his slider usage in the years since. He’s still a fringy guy for most forty-man rosters as a one-pitch guy, and if Alcalá doesn’t regain his velocity following his elbow issues, he could follow a similar path, as he threw his own slider nearly as often as his fastball in 2021. Best case: Juan Rincon Rincon’s run as a highly effective eighth-inning setup man was brief but spectacular. Like Alcalá, he featured a firm fastball and a hard slider and posted a 156 ERA+ from 2003 to 2006. Then his stuff regressed and he started walking guys and was never a useful reliever again. But if Alcalá can give the Twins a couple of years of even 140 ERA+ type of production, they would feel pretty good about a guy who was somewhat of a throw-in to the Ryan Pressly trade. To do that, he would need to continue developing his change-up to neutralize lefties, which showed promise in 2021. If that happens, and López doesn’t turn his Twins career around, we could see Alcalá get some save chances, since I would imagine the Twins brass would love to keep Duran in more of a utility role. Stay tuned for comparables for the Twins’ catching tandem, in which one gets compared to Brad Ausmus and the other to Salvador Perez. View full article

Variance is the key word for evaluating the Twins’ 2023 chances. I heard one outside analyst refer to the thought process of Falvey and Levine as “eventually, one year, not everyone will be hurt.” The roster certainly has a different and more optimistic feel to it with the addition of Carlos Correa, but the variance is still high, particularly at the corner outfield spots. Image courtesy of © Jeffrey Becker-USA TODAY Sports In "Fun with Player Comps" I look at player comps for 30 current Twins who figure to play a role in 2023, starting with their closest age player from Baseball-Reference.com prior to 2022. Based on each player's general vibe, I then move into the best and worst-case scenarios. Previous installments: middle-infield, centerfield. With my inclusion of Luis Arraez in the middle infield (what was I thinking?!) that leaves Jose Miranda as the only strictly corner infielder on the roster, so he gets lumped in with the Twins' glut of corner outfielders. Based on Fangraphs depth chart projections, the Twins have average to above-average projections at every position player spot, except the corner outfield spots. Adam Duvall won’t change the calculus much, but there is both talent and upside here. Let’s start with the one corner outfielder that may feature neither: Max Kepler Best comp through age 29: Cory Snyder Never heard of him, but Snyder posted some decent power numbers in his early 20s with Cleveland before falling off a cliff in his late 20s. Instead of a cliff, Kepler’s production has been more of an unattended rickshaw rolling down a mild incline and gaining speed, buoyed only by his excellent defensive work. Worst case: Andrew Jacob Cave This feels harsh, but both players hit for low averages, provide nothing against lefties, have average power, and play good corner outfield defense, though Kepler's defense is a solid grade ahead of Cave's. If this scenario holds, let's hope it's with another team, ideally one that greatly overestimates the benefits Kepler will receive from the shift ban, because it isn't likely he will benefit. Sadly, the dumb teams in baseball are starting to invest in more intelligent front offices, leaving only the Rockies as a team that might overpay for Max. Best case: Jason Heyward My methodology here is that I assume Kepler gets worse as he ages. If he stays where he is or even if he unlocks something elsewhere, Heyward is a good comp. Heyward was a decent player prior to signing with the Cubs in 2016, providing power, patience, and either elite fielding ability in right field or decent fielding in center. The Cubs, and many others, felt there was more offense to unlock, and even if that didn't happen, they could at least bank on him being a plus defender. He never did figure it out with the bat and was never worth his contract, but he did provide some value; for instance, in his 2019-2020 seasons, he hit for a combined 106 OPS+. Were Kepler to post a similar number, his plus defense and baserunning could provide real value. If he was traded to a contender, like the Yankees or Dodgers, he might be more agreeable to a platoon and maximize his impact even further. Jose Miranda (No comp available) Worst case: Willians Astudillo If Miranda takes a step back, it will be because he gets too antsy at the plate and turns his elite contact ability into a liability, rolling weak grounders off pitches outside the zone. If pitchers don't think they have to throw him a strike, he won't be able to get to his above-average power, and if he doesn't hit for power, he may end up with La Tortuga in Japan. Miranda's path to being a long-term asset rests solely with his bat, as his defense can only hope to grade out as "doesn't kill ya," and his baserunning is uncomfortable to watch. Best case: Wal-Mart Rafael Devers Devers is an offensive-minded third baseman with elite bat-to-ball skills and prodigious power. Miranda doesn't have the power or the elite natural gifts that Devers has with a bat, but he isn't that far off if he takes a step forward in 2023. in 2018, Devers' first full(ish) season in the majors, he hit .240/.298/.433 with poor defense and 66 RBI. Miranda just posted .268/.325/.426 with poor defense and 66 RBI. If he improves his selectivity, as Devers did in his 2019 breakout, he'll be a big part of the Twins' future. Trevor Larnach (Telling that there are no comps for the next two) Worst case: Kyle Blanks Blanks got a lot of chances as a big-bodied right fielder who looked like he could hit coming up with the Padres. But he couldn't stay on the field and was out of the game at 28. Larnach tantalizes with his tools, but it may be fair to wonder if his large frame can handle the rigors of being a major league outfielder. On the other hand, his injuries in 2021 were of the hand and foot variety. Blanks was victimized by back and Achilles issues, among other ailments. Best case: Paul O'Neill Larnach has a chance to be a better defender than O'Neill but has less contact ability. O'Neill's career line of .288/.363/.470 looks like something Larnach could achieve in his prime if he stays healthy and reaches his potential. To do that, he simply needs his body to cooperate and to lay off breaking pitches like he did the first two months of 2022 when he posted an .890 OPS and strong defensive metrics. Alex Kirilloff Worst case: Nolan Reimold Reimold teased Orioles fans with a solid rookie season in Baltimore. He was a top 100 prospect who had just posted a .831 OPS in 2009 but couldn't stay healthy. Believing in his potential, the Orioles kept giving him chances. Eventually, they gave up and released him in 2014, only to bring him back a year later, which.. didn't go any better. Best case: Less patient Will Clark Clark should probably be a Hall-of-Famer, but he never quite hit for the kind of power that came in vogue among first basemen in the 1990s. Nevertheless, he posted 56.5 bWAR for his career and hit .303. Kirilloff, too, doesn't strike me as the type to post numerous thirty home run seasons even if things break right for him, but his plate coverage and power the other way could allow him to approach Clark's career AVG and SLG numbers. Kyle Garlick (Still no comps for Garlick, who is still with the Twins as of this writing.) Worst case: Josh Hamilton (with the Angels) When Hamilton hit free agency after the 2012 season, no one really knew how to evaluate him, similar to how Byron Buxton may have looked to the market if the Twins had not extended him: He's great, but how often? Luckily for Hamilton, the Los Angeles Angels exist and gave him 113M. Unluckily for the Angels, Hamilton didn't offer the hedge that Buxton does, where he can give you four WAR in half a season based on his defense and baserunning. Hamilton provided 2.7 bWAR in total to the Angels. If Garlick posted those numbers over a two-year span, it wouldn't be so bad, but like Hamilton and Buxton, Garlick has an impossible time staying on the field. Best case: A Good Ryan Raburn year Raburn was a frustrating player to watch and would frequently alternate .500 and .900 OPS seasons. For his career, however, he hit for a .818 OPS versus lefties and, in his good years, was a force from the right side who was generally healthy. Matt Wallner (No comps, he's just a boy) Worst case: Logan Morrison LoMo had some hype as a prospect but almost always disappointed, never posting an OPS above .800 until his outlier year with the Rays when he popped 38 home runs. Besides that, Morrison struggled to stay healthy, swung and missed a lot, and provided negative defensive value. His career bWAR was 3.9. Best case: Joey Gallo Gallo and Wallner may each have a top-five arm for an outfielder in the game, and Gallo made himself into a strong outfielder despite coming up as a third baseman. He swung and missed a ton, but made enough hard contact to be an All-Star. He may have reached another level in 2019 when he raised his average to .253 and had a .986 OPS in July as a 25-year-old. But he broke his wrist and has never shown that kind of output since. Gallo is a frustrating player type, but Wallner getting to 85% of his peak would be a great outcome for such a low-contact hitter. Whatever the Twins achieve in 2023 will hinge a lot on what they get from Kirilloff, Larnach, Miranda, and to a lesser extent, Gallo. If the KLM boys stay reasonably healthy, there’s a good chance one of them truly breaks out, which lengthens the lineup considerably and solves the corner outfield problem. If they stall in their development, that puts a lot of pressure on Gallo to rebound, and in the last installment in this series, I compared him to the White Sox era Adam Dunn. Stay tuned for the next installment, catchers and closers. See previous entries here. View full article

The Twins are projected for 81 wins this coming season, which is fairly generous for a team coming off a 78-84 season that is losing its MVP in Carlos Correa. The front office is on the hot seat, having failed to win a playoff game in their six year tenure after inheriting a young, cheap and talented roster prior to 2017. That front office believes in its process to the point it apparently feels comfortable running back pretty much the same guys and hoping that fewer injuries vaults them up the standings. A recent Gleeman and the Geek mailbag episode featured a discussion of whether the Twins process lined up with its results. Gleeman and our fearless leader eventually came to the conclusion that the front office’s process was a little ahead of the results, but not by as much as said front office would hope. I am about to argue the opposite. The plan going into the 2017 season was to develop the emerging young players (Kepler, Polanco, Buxton, Sanó) into cheap, controllable stars, avoid long-term commitments unless they came at a steep discount, develop home-grown pitching, try to find unlockable pitchers off the scrap heap using newfound analytics and tech, and become a sustainable winner on a budget, much like Cleveland. But is the front office sticking to that? It certainly is an improvement. Part of the problem with the Terry Ryan regime was that the team never sold high on any of its assets, letting Michael Cuddyer, Joe Mauer, Justin Morneau, Torii Hunter, Jason Kubel and the like play out their years of team control or let them lose all their trade value through injury or under-performance and get flipped for a bag of balls. This kept the farm system gutted and resulted in the kind of painful rebuild this new regime is now trying to avoid. Will they avoid it? Let’s examine their process and match it up to reality. They definitely have kept the books clean, with only Byron Buxton’s team-friendly deal carrying any real weight. Many Twins fans blamed Joe Mauer’s contract extension as the reason the team fell out of contention in the early 2010’s, but any logical person knows that the previous core got old and there was no one to replace them. The Twins also didn’t get any value out of that core before they got old or ineffective. That’s how Cleveland, Tampa Bay and Oakland have contention windows open longer than a team like the Royals, who rode with its stars from its World Series runs, gave some of them extensions and watched it all fall apart. They did take advantage of the two playoff runs they got, but that’s an awfully short time to be relevant, and there doesn’t appear to be an end in sight. As far as developing their own pitching, the Twins haven’t shown much. While Cleveland and Tampa Bay churn out a new four WAR pitcher every year, all we have to show for ourselves is Bailey Ober and the reliever versions of Griffin Jax and Jhoan Duran. Matt Canterino and Blayne Enlow look like sure relievers at this point, Jordan Balazovic is a mess, and Louie Varland has a ceiling of a third starter. Cade Povich looked good, but was traded for Jorge López. Ditto Steven Hajjar, who was included in the Tyler Mahle trade. Josh Winder gets lit up on every fastball he throws, so all hopes land on Connor Prielipp and Marco Raya at this point, neither of whom are close to the majors. After six years, one would expect a little more from a front office that claimed to specialize in this area. They have added pitching talent via trade, and it looks like that will need to continue. The way the Twins’ roster currently sits is intriguing in its lack of second and third year arbitration players. That sets up a lot of value to be gained if some of those players turn into stars, like Luis Arraez for instance. He’s now an All-Star utility player who just won a batting championship. We know his flaws here locally: his knees wear down and he doesn’t offer much at third and second base defensively. But for a team looking for that difference-maker in the playoffs, Arraez looks plenty enticing, which I am sure is why the Twins are listening to offers on him currently. Doing so has the potential to bring back multiple Arraez’s who are potentially cheaper. Winning that kind of trade is exactly the kind of process Falvey and Levine should value if they want a Cleveland style contention window, but they haven’t done much of that, either. So far, the team has traded Jose Berrios for two likely big league contributors, (how much they contribute is very much in question) traded the last year of Taylor Rogers for three years of a talented starting pitcher in Chris Paddack, and traded a young pitcher, Brusdar Graterol, who was destined for relief work for four years of Kenta Maeda. All of those trades netted the team positive value, and none of them made the team worse in the immediate future considering how bad Rogers and Berrios have been. The tough pill to swallow is that to truly compete at a Cleveland-Tampa level, young stars will have to be traded near the peak of their career, not just when they get expensive in arbitration. Look at the Mike Clevinger trade from 2020. In exchange for two and a half years of Clevinger, who to that point was coming off of three years with a combined 152 ERA+, Cleveland received Josh Naylor, Gabriel Arias, Austin Hedges, Owen Miller, Cal Quantrill and Joey Cantillo. Two of those guys, Naylor and Quantrill, are established starters on a division winning team. Shortstop Arias and starting pitcher Cantillo are rookies who both figure to play big roles in their next one to two seasons with Arias ranking number 57 on Baseball-Prospectus’ mid-season rankings. Hedges was their catcher this past year, and Miller their top pinch hitter. Those last two are disappointments for Cleveland, but the trade was a massive success even without their inclusion. Clevinger got hurt immediately once he became a Padre, sat out 2021 and was ineffective in 2022. The trades of Berrios, Graterol and Rogers were a net positive, but unless Austin Martin and Simeon Woods-Richardson significantly outperform expectations, they didn’t do much to stack the roster for the future. Getting Isiah Kiner-Falefa and Ronny Henriquez for Mitch Garver was a reasonable play, but trading him after 2019, knowing he wasn’t likely to age well and that his defense was just okay, could have set the team up at multiple positions. It just doesn’t seem like that’s part of the Falvine process. Which is unfortunate because the front office has to make unpopular decisions if it wants to compete against teams that can spend more and absorb bad contracts. Of course the Twins could certainly raise payroll, but they have shown that they won’t, and even if they did, luring free agents to Minnesota has proven to be a tough sell. They need to overpay, but they have shown they will not look stupid by giving a player “too much money.” Brandon Nimmo, for instance, has never been a 162M player, but the Mets wanted him so they paid him 30-40% more than was projected. If Nimmo continues being who he is, a three WAR player without power who can stick in center field for a few years, the contract won’t age well. But the Mets don’t care, and if the Twins front office wants to toe the line between the Cleveland-Tampa model and the Phillies-Padres one, they will have to show a free agent they don’t care either. Once in a while, at least. They could also follow the Atlanta Braves model and sign all their emerging stars to team-friendly extensions. These contracts can look bad, as well- just ask the Mariners about Evan White, or the Cardinals about Paul DeJong. The pay-off is enormous though, as you can keep your roster flush with stars without having to trade your next star for it. The Twins are in a position to make some of those types of deals, with Alex Kirilloff, Nick Gordon, Bailey Ober, Trevor Larnach, Joe Ryan, Jhoan Duran and Jose Miranda potentially big parts of the team’s future. Some of that crop has injury issues, which is bad, but also depreciates the value of any extension that player might sign. You might be able to get three years of Kirilloff’s or Ober’s free agency for 30M each. Duran might be the next reliever to secure a 100M contract, but if he agreed to a buyout of his arbitration years plus two more for a total of 40M, that could pay off handsomely and he might accept it, given his history of arm injuries in the minors. All three routes, early trades, overpaying free agents and extending pre-arbitration guys, require a little luck, but that’s why you have a sophisticated and robust scouting and analytic presence. You have to trust your guys and take some risks, and right now the Twins are stuck in limbo, afraid to lose prospects who may blossom elsewhere, to overpay for free agents, or to hand out extensions to players who may end up chronically injured or bad. The sad truth is that avoiding long-term commitments and getting value out of scrap heap pitchers isn’t much of a process, especially when the pitching pipeline is bare. They won’t overpay like the Padres, Phillies or Mariners, they won’t deal guys at the peak of their value like Cleveland and Tampa, and they don’t extend hardly any of them early either, like the Braves.They just wait for their prospects and hope to get lucky with a Josh Donaldson or Correa. They will describe this non-action as being opportunistic. The team has assembled a good amount of talent, but without the intentionality of those other teams, there is less cohesion; the team just grabs what talent it can and crams it all together. That isn’t so much to say that Joey Gallo is a bad fit, as it is to say the front office never gets their first, second or third choice in free agency or in trades. The Twins needed a frontline pitcher at the deadline and it seemed like they got one in Tyler Mahle. Except Mahle was hurt. He and the Twins hoped it wouldn’t be a problem, but it was. If he hadn't just come back from shoulder problems, the Twins would have had to give up more than the three good prospects they did give up, such as someone the national media actually knew about or who played on the big league roster. Their likely first choice, Mahle’s teammate with the Reds, Luis Castillo, ended up going to the Mariners for a boatload of prospects that surely gave the Twins and Yankees a feeling of relief. But the Mariners wanted an ace for their return to the playoffs, he was the missing piece that team needed, and that team ended up beating a formidable Blue Jays team on the road in the wild-card round, and playing the Astros tougher than any other team, as it turned out. Even before signing Castillo to an extension, they didn’t regret the trade. It reminds me of a line from King of the Hills’s Dale Gribble, trying to goad his friend Hank into mooning a hotel lobby from a glass elevator:: Noelvi Marte may end up being a star, but everyone in Seattle remembers Castillo’s 7.1 shutout innings in game one. Shopping for discounts leads to getting players on the downside of their careers, players who are trouble in the clubhouse, or players with injury questions. With Josh Donaldson, the Twins got all three! It’s hard to establish an identity when your additions to the roster are hurt, playing badly but need to play based on what you gave up for them, and are getting in insular beefs with Gerrit Cole. I’m sure the Twins do target players they want, but when they do, they either aren’t dreaming very big, or they aren’t giving big enough offers. Other teams may even use the Twins lack of free agent appeal against them in trade discussions, and ask more knowing that they represent the only way for the Twins to improve from outside their organization. The Correa pursuit showed both the Twins desperation, as 10/285M was an enormous offer for the team historically, and the issue I am referring to, that they couldn’t add that one extra year that may have added 25-30% to the odds of Correa being swayed to stay in Minnesota. Of course, even with all the inaction, the front office has made some unexpected and creative trades, such as unloading Donaldson’s contract to free up money to target Trevor Story last year. Story didn’t want to play in Minnesota, or at least he didn’t for the offer they gave him, and the front office was fortunate that Scott Boras called with his Correa proposition. Being nimble is a nice benefit of the payroll flexibility the team enjoys, but it doesn’t move the needle of turning this team into a real contender. Here’s how I would say the team has performed using the processes they were brought in to execute: Not taking on long-term deals: A+ Finding scrap heap pitchers and unlocking their potential: D- Develop position players into major league contributors: C Develop home-grown pitching: D- Here’s how they performed using other, successful, processes: Overpaying for free agents to add talent without dipping into farm system: F Extending emerging stars before they break out: D Trading players with years of team control who are playing at a high level to replenish the farm system and/or augment the major league roster: C This is why injuries can’t be blamed for the lack of recent success. There is a problem with the process. One, their pitching expertise has proven dubious. Two, their process model doesn’t include the boldness exhibited by teams they are trying to emulate. The scrap heap pitchers they are trying to unlock are waiver claims, not major league bounce back candidates. The pitchers they target in trades are of the scratch n’ dent variety, not sure things. Imagine if the team had struggled getting its high position player draft picks to the majors and there was no Gordon, Miranda, Larnach, Kirilloff, Royce Lewis, Ryan Jeffers, or Buxton to even worry about projecting for the 2023 roster. That’s the only positive thing keeping this team from becoming Detroit or Kansas City. My advice would be to get Chris Sale for a prospect and take on his entire salary, flip Sonny Gray and Max Kepler to San Diego, where they are short a starter and a corner outfielder and try to pry Ha-Seong Kim from them. But hey, that’s just my process.

In "Fun with Player Comps" I look at player comps for 30 current Twins who figure to ply a role in 2023, starting with their closest age player from Baseball-Reference.com prior to 2022. I then move into the best and worst case scenarios based on each player's general vibe. Find the first installment for the middle infield here. The Twins center-field options will include at least one new face for 2023 in Joey Gallo. The rest of the group contains the same warts: When Byron Buxton gets hurt there will be a massive trade-off in offense, defense, and/or flexibility for the rest of the position player group. The upside could be fun, though. Let's start with the new guy: Joey Gallo B-R best comp through Age 28: Dave Kingman It's hard to beat this comp. If I got to pick it myself it might have been this very fellow. Kingman was essentially the Gallo of the 70s and 80s: he didn’t walk much because that wasn’t what all-or-nothing sluggers did back then. But like Gallo, he was a caricature of himself, even when he was having some good years and collecting down-ballot MVP votes.He hit 442 home runs, which is great, but that came with a .236 batting average and a .302 OBP. But the comparison to Gallo runs deeper than numbers: when your dad complains about Gallo's strikeouts and how his style of play is ruining the game (without any knowledge or mention of his great outfield defense), your dad's dad was complaining about Kingman, one of the first players to normalize striking out over 100 times per year. His dad complained about Mickey Mantle, probably. Worst case: White Sox Adam Dunn, post-contract extension Chris Davis I wouldn’t recommend looking up stats on these comps. Best case: Median Cody Bellinger Bellinger’s true talent probably wasn’t represented in his 2019 MVP season, but it also wasn’t in his 2021-2022 seasons. In 2018, however, Bellinger put up a 120 OPS+ with good defense across multiple positions, including center-field. That would be nice to see from Gallo. Byron Buxton Age 28: Bo Jackson This might be somehow better than Gallo’s Kingman comp. Bo was electrifying and could do things no other human could do across multiple sports. Sadly, he was a little healthier than Buxton until his tragic hip injury, but outside of Mike Trout, his five tools weren't been matched until Lord Byron first learned how to turn on pitches. Worst case: Ellis Valentine Valentine was one of the hottest prospects of the 1970’s and one of the first to exhibit five loud tools. His failure to launch was partly Tim Raines’ fault for getting him hooked on cocaine, and partly the brutal AstroTurf in Montreal’s garbage can of a stadium. It all caught up to him and after age 26 he was a shell of himself; by age 30 he was out of baseball. Coming up with Gary Carter, Raines and Andre Dawson, all Hall-of-Famers, you really start to feel for Montreal fans of that era, who witnessed one postseason series win despite all that talent. "Cry me a river," say fans of Buxton and the Twins. Best case: Kevin Kiermaier’s glove and Gary Sheffield’s bat One player can’t encapsulate the upside of Buxton, but these two pin it down fairly well. Buxton has the lightning quick bat and snarl of Sheffield, and is Kiermaier's only peer when it comes to fearlessly running down impossible-to-catch fly balls. Gilberto Celestino (No comps yet) Worst case: Shane Robinson Robinson was a fungible fourth or fifth outfielder with some on-base ability and plus defense, but never developed any power to speak of. He reached the peak plate appearance season of his career with the Twins in 2015 when he came to bat 197 times. Best case: Manuel Margot Margot has carved out an interesting career. He was originally a hot Red Sox prospect out of the Dominican with power, speed and good center-field defense. In what became a trend of trading him for mercurial late inning relievers, he was traded to the Padres for Craig Kimbrel. He was later flipped to the Rays for one Emilio Pagán. He has since become a streaky but valuable role player for the Rays, providing a .695 OPS, decent defense and the ability to go yard and steal a base. He also has been clutch for the Rays in the postseason, hitting five home runs for the Rays in their pennant winning 2020 season. If Celestino can come close to that level of production, the Twins can live with Buxton playing only 80-90 games, provided those games include the stretch run. Nick Gordon Age 26: Chris Burke Burke had some big postseason moments with the Astros in the early aughts but had an otherwise nondescript career. He did slash .276/.347/.418 in 2006 but otherwise never had a slugging percentage higher than .368. Gordon also needs to keep his slugging squarely in the .450 range for him to have significant long-term value. Worst case: Christian Colón Colón was a high draft pick who never hit enough to carve out a career as a utility man. He did win a ring with Kansas City, but after posting a 104 OPS+ over his first two years encompassing 168 plate appearances, he dropped that number to 47 playing sporadically for three teams in 250 plate appearances. If Gordon stalls in his development with the bat, his middling defense won't save him from a similar fate. Best case: Scooter Gennett Gennett was mostly a second baseman who hit the ball harder than you would think, and despite his 5’10” frame, put up some big power numbers in Cincinnati. Gordon would love to match Gennett’s peak, but also would probably like to stay in the league a little longer- Gennett played his last game at age 29. To reach a peak like that, Gordon has to continue to refine his approach and hunt pitches a little better, but he has surprised us a few times already, so why not? Quite a bit of variance, no? Sorting through these options legitimizes the Gallo signing a little more, only because Kepler won't play center whether he remains with the team or not, and it gives them another dice to roll when Buxton isn't available. Anything is better than Jake Cave and Mark Contreras. Link to previous entry in this series: Fun with player comps- Middle infield edition

Since no one has any idea what’s going to happen for the rest of the offseason (Emilio Pagán traded to the Mets and then extended for four years 36M?) I thought it would be fun to try out some player comps for 2023. I’m going to go through 30 players who are on the team and figure to, if not make the team in spring, at least figure into their plans in the first half. We’ll start with their closest age player comp from Baseball-Reference for their 2022 season just to put some sort of foundation to the comparison, then move into their worst case and best case scenario for the upcoming season. These are based on nothing except the general vibe I get from following the player’s career. The B-R comps are not available for players without enough plate appearances or innings pitched (somewhere between how much Bailey Ober pitched and how much Trevor Larnach hit). Luis Arraez Baseball-Reference closest sim score through age 25: Fred Tenney If we adjust this to include players who did not play in the 1800’s, we get Jo-Jo Moore, leadoff hitter for the 1933 World Series champion Giants. I had to look that up; he means nothing to me, but his inclusion underscores the old-school charm Arraez possesses. In fact, of Arraez's ten most similar batters through age 25, only Tony Gwynn played later than 1970. Worst case: Early career Howie Kendrick Presumed to be a perennial batting champ early on with the Angels, Kendrick hit okay, but didn’t play close to a full season until his fifth year in the league due to injury. He never lived up to his early prospect hype until his age 35 season, when he hit .340 and gave the Nationals a full 30% boost in championship WPA. Best case: Late career Tony Gwynn This version of Gwynn couldn’t do much except hit at an elite rate. From age 35 until he retired at age 41, Gwynn hit .352 with passable to bad defense. As defense erodes, many players lose bat speed as well and starting guessing on pitches, leading to sharp declines in production. Not so for Gwynn, who got a little chubby and realized his value could only come from his bat. Perhaps as a thirty year old DH, Arraez's legs will stay strong and he'll see a similar spike in production to Gwynn. Jorge Polanco Age 28: Ian Desmond This one is rough, and hopefully not a harbinger or any sort. Desmond had a good start to his career with the Nationals but the moment he lost one step he became a liability at shortstop and was never an elite hitter. He could still crush a mistake, but faded into obscurity with the Rockies as an outfielder and was out of the game at age 33. Worst case: Marcus Giles Giles was a do-it-all second baseman for the Braves at the tail end of their glory years in the mid-2000’s. He provided a spark in the lineup, hit for power and contact, fielded well and had good speed. Injuries piled up though, and he was out of the game at age 29. Life comes at you fast in the middle infield sometimes. Best case: Marcus Semien Semien provides power, speed and a good eye at the plate. He handles second base well and cashed in with a 175M contract with the Rangers. His “terrible” year in 2022 resulted in 5.9 bWAR. We’ve seen Polanco have a couple of years where he approached five WAR, but Semien is one of the more durable players in the league- Polanco seems to be trending the other way. Kyle Farmer Age 31: Brendan Harris Matt Garza and Jason Bartlett begot Harris and good friend Delmon Young. Harris could kind of hit, but not well enough to leave any impression on Twins fans. Worst case: End of career Clint Barmes. In his prime, Barmes could pick it at short and hit 18 home runs. Towards the end he was an average defender with a sub .300 OBP and barely a trickle of power Even if Farmer only starts for half the season, the Twins and their fans will need a better effort than that. Best case: Didi Gregorius In his prime, Gregorius had 25 homer power and decent enough defense at short. He never controlled the strike zone very well but he was a solid player until injuries caught up with him. If Farmer approached numbers anywhere close to that, the Twins might have a good problem on their hands when Royce Lewis and /or Brooks Lee arrive. Royce Lewis (I really wish he had played enough to get a comp) Worst case: Eduardo Núñez Núñez was a fun player who may have been negatively impacted by his status as the one of the possible heirs-apparent to Derek Jeter. He never hit in the minors, never projected as a good shortstop and didn’t find his footing until he joined the Twins in 2014. From there, he provided a little speed, a little utility, some power and a flair that made him a fan favorite in Minnesota and in Boston, where he won a championship in 2018, even providing a big three-run home run in the seventh inning of game one. Best case: Alfonso Soriano with better defense Soriano didn’t have quite the hype that Lewis has had, but he was involved with a strange legal dispute after his first professional experience with the Hiroshima Carp. He tried to get released but the Carp wouldn’t let him, and after some drawn out legal action and Bud Selig getting involved, his dispute resulted in the inception of the “posting system” which saw Daisuke Matzuzaka and Yu Darvish have 50M+ transfer fees attached to their negotiations. Like Lewis, the circumstances were weird at the start, but Soriano ended up with 412 home runs and 289 steals for his career, even posting a 46 home run, 41 steal season in 2006. That would be amazing from Lewis, but Royce still theoretically has the chance to stay at shortstop and be effective there, with third base and the outfield as fallback options in which Soriano himself provided negative value, having moved off of shortstop before reaching the majors. The variance is high with this one.

Losing out on Carlos Correa was interesting. It was both a gut punch and completely expected. I’ve seen Carlos Baerga be right too many times to not get a little into the idea that Correa might actually eschew the great weather, prestige and generally winning culture of the San Francisco Giants for less money with the Twins. It unfolded how it should have. Once the Giants got to a certain number, maybe 310M, they were betting against themselves. The Twins only got to 285M- I doubt the Cubs offered more than that. It doesn’t sound like the Yankees made an offer, nor the Mets. The Dodgers took themselves out of the bidding, and the Padres have got to a have a limit at some point. So there was competition with one other team, and the only way Correa was coming back was if there was no competition. The pivot options are pretty harsh and most of them involve trading Luis Arraez, who feels pretty important to this team. Other trade chips include Brooks Lee, Jhoan Duran and Alex Kirilloff. Any increase in the WAR gained by trading for such a player is going to be partly (if you’re lucky) offset by the WAR of the traded player. It’s hard to find a player worth a guaranteed five WAR- not Corbin Burnes or Brandon Woodruff, definitely not Pablo López; heck even Correa didn’t hit five WAR last year according to Fangraph’s formula. If you can’t find that then you are risking losing value in the first year of a trade which would figure to look worse and worse as the targeted player hits free agency and the trade chips are just starting arbitration. Signing Carlos Rodón would solve a lot of issues, and we wouldn’t have to compare his performance to any cost in prospect capital. But his shoulder could go, and if it does you may be paying an 85 MPH throwing bullpen lefty 28M for several years. He also doesn’t like Minnesota, from what I hear, and sees himself as some sort of tough guy. I would overpay for him, but even that might not be enough. So they aren’t signing Rodón and don’t want to make a trade. The next logical step would be to take on salary. To acquire a number one starter at a cheaper price than the Brewers pitchers. Of course I am referring to Chris Sale. You might be asking yourself, who is that twiggy alien? Why, one of the best pitchers of the past decade, and one who currently maintains the highest K/9 rate in baseball history. The catch is he has a no-trade clause and any acquiring team would be taking on the salary of a man who has pitched in eleven games since the 2019 season. He’s owed 55M over the next two seasons with a 20M vesting option for 2025 based on how well he pitches in his age 35 season. The Twins have room for that kind of AAV, but why would the Red Sox be trying to dump Sale’s salary given they have just lost their star shortstop, Xander Bogaerts? Maybe because the Red Sox are cheaper than people realize, having doled out but a few big contracts since the David Price signing in 2015, the biggest being Trevor Story’s 140M and Sale’s current 145M deal. They still run decent payrolls, but they have to be sure to have the money to lock up Rafael Devers, who represents the last hope the Red Sox have of signing extensions with one of their home-grown stars from their 2018 championship year. The Sox have never given out a 300M contract, or even a 250M. They also weren't good in 2022, and are losing Bogaerts as well as what is left of J.D. Martinez. What would it cost to pry Sale from the Red Sox? Despite his negative value on a given trade simulator, Sale still holds significant value for the team in context. He hasn’t looked terrible in the brief time we’ve seen him the past four years, and they know if he regains 85% of his previous form, he is the ace that could lead them back to the playoffs. But if Boston is at all sick of dealing with Sale, the Twins should see if they would take a couple top 10 prospects and Max Kepler for his entire salary. The payoff could include an escape hatch from playing out the 2023 season in a weak division with Kenta Maeda, Sonny Gray and Tyler Mahle all on expiring contracts, no real ace and Kyle Farmer hanging out at shortstop. It would mean Sale agreeing to any deal as well as parting with some prospects, though presumably not the caliber that Milwaukee would command for Burnes or Woodruff. Maybe the Red Sox truly are bound by math to be both dumb and stingy and will give up on Sale because a WAR projection model told them so. Not likely, but maybe they think Josh Winder is the real deal and David Festa is a real up-and-comer. Maybe the deal requires Arraez. The Twins should find out.

Breaking balls aren't the issue, based on linear weights for pitch types. Also the eye test. All I'm saying is he could put up a .720 OPS, which is even more likely with Vázquez in the fold, and if he did, that could make the Twins a factor in the AL. I didn't even pose it as a prediction.

The AL goes through the Astros, so if you aren't trying to build a team that can match up with them, what are you even doing?

This is... not the worst idea. My only issue is Stanton- he has to agree to the trade and I don't see why he would renegotiate his contract. The Yankees also need him in their lineup; he and Rizzo are the only protection Judge has. Although, Stanton has looked worse and worse. If its Arraez and Kepler for Donaldson, Stanton, Hicks, Severino, Volpe, Gil and Dominguez, I feel like the Yankees turn that down pretty quick. Their team would improve assuming they sign Correa and Rodón, but they value Volpe and Dominguez a lot, and they are probably still short a bat.

The team is in a tricky spot following the winter meetings. They allegedly remain in play for Carlos Correa, but their backup options are getting swallowed up and their 50M remains unspent. Even with Correa, this team will have some challenges going into 2023. Winning the Central can’t be the goal, especially with the state of the competition being as sorry as it is. To be a real force in the AL, the Twins need a few things to happen, Correa or not: The Astros take a step back. The Astros are a juggernaut. It might seem like the Yankees are too, but ask any Yankees fan and they will admit they had no chance in the ALCS against Houston; they were totally outclassed. Since divisional play, the torch in the AL has passed from Cleveland to the Yankees to the Red Sox to the Astros (you could make the argument for the Royals in 2014-2015 if you’re generous). The Astros have built some more runway, as well, with 2023 looking incredibly bright. Alex Bregman still isn’t thirty, and all of Yordan Álvarez, Jeremy Peña and Kyle Tucker will play next year at 26 or younger. Cristian Javier, Framber Valdez, José Urquidy and Luis Garcia are all 28 or younger. They play crisp and confident, and free agents know their numbers will improve in Houston; whether by altering a pitchers mix to perfection or getting to hit in front of Yordan. The only way the Astros aren’t favorites come October is if the aforementioned Yordan is hurt, they lose one of their starters and Ryan Pressley loses a tick of his stuff. Anything short of that is going to be near impossible to beat, regardless if the next four items on my list were to happen. The starting pitching takes a step forward They can get Carlos Rodón and do that, or hope to get lucky by rolling out Sonny Gray, Tyler Mahle, Kenta Maeda off Tommy John, and Bailey Ober. Consecutively. If Joe Ryan had excellent command he could be a playoff caliber starter, but he doesn’t have excellent command. Yet? As much as I like Louie Varland, SWR and the prospect of Jordan Balazovic bouncing back, not even the most optimistic prospect evals have them starting game one or even two in a playoff series. I really hope Marco Raya has a nice year. Get big RBI totals from two of Miranda, Kirilloff and Larnach This isn’t about RBIs being valuable as much as a high number of them would indicate a lot of involvement from this crop of young hitters. José Miranda has proven more durable than the two outfielders, but they wouldn’t surprise anyone if one of them hit .280 with twenty-two home runs next year. Depending on all three is folly, but getting two middle of the order hitters from the group lengthens the lineup and puts less pressure on Buxton, Polanco and Arraez. Jhoan Durán stays healthy He hasn’t had a long track record of health and he is THE bullpen. The good news is that Durán got stronger as the year went on last year, but any young pitcher throwing 103 with a history of arm injuries can be a ticking time bomb. Ryan Jeffers is an All-star This may seem like a shocker but it wouldn’t take a lot for Jeffers to suddenly seem like a building block again. Maybe he gets a little hot streak and gets shielded from enough righties to be at .270/.320/450 at the break (Ends up at .255/.310/.410 or so). Jose Trevino started the All-star game in 2022 and ended up with a .671 OPS, for comparison- if the Twins are in contention in July, Jefers gets extra credit for “leading the staff.” The hitting lends legitimacy to that claim. Further, a homegrown catcher is the truest expression of how a team wants to run its on-field operations. They come up in the system learning a certain style of play that is background noise to the talents of the other positions. Jeffers is gritty, emotive and solid defensively, which, in theory, validates their organizational philosophy. But this ephemeral stuff works a lot better if the player in question can punish pitchers from the bottom of the lineup. In related news, there is a reason Cleveland isn’t interested in bringing Austin Hedges back. Long story short, if Jeffers hits to the point where the opposing pitcher has to think about how to attack him, that’s a major win for the Twins. Like the two New York teams, the Twins making a big splash in free agency just gets them back to where they were (which maybe isn’t the worst thing). Signing Correa and leaving the Giants and Cubs to fight over the average-ish hitting Dansby Swanson would be a coup, but as we saw last year, it guarantees nothing.

I think you can count on Gray, Mahle, Buxton, Larnach, Polanco, and Arraez all missing a little time.- hopefully it happens early. I'm real bullish on Kirilloff. I think if the pitching is thin around the deadline the FO will make a move, just because their jobs are on the line. Hanh's not wrong- I think you have to blend the old with the new. Use data to inform, but ultimately make decisions with your eyes. I don't have any qualms with them pulling Archer and Bundy early- they were terrible third time through, and it looked like Rocco gave Gray and Ryan a longer leash starting around September. The Yankees may have been victims of waiting for the three run home run to an extent, but I think ultimately they just vastly overestimated the lineup around Judge, which ended up being Rizzo, maybe Gleyber Torres, and whatever Stanton is these days. I don't share that concern with the Twins- most of their guys are trending up and they have more of them. The biggest strikeout guys are Buxton and Larnach- you live with it with the former, I think the latter's failures had a lot to do with the hernia because he was spraying the ball in April and May.

I think they usually fail because they're just goofy, corny and nobody takes them seriously mainly due to the fact they don't stack depth and emphasize contact over power. I think Correa changed that but the injuries made it hard to see, especially given the context of how things usually go with the Twins. I watched probably 150 games this year and they fought harder than I've seen until that last Cleveland series. Much different than '21, '18, or '16 in my opinion, when the team was just completely lifeless. The outfield injuries just killed them this year.

This is what I'm talking about, and I don't blame you for feeling that way. Frankly the Twins deserve miserable fans after the past 15 years. Hopefully they make a big signing, play well, and you can feel joy again.

It’s hard to get excited about the Minnesota Twins. They could easily be an exciting team by next spring but that’s beside the point. The Twins just never seem to command any respect. They’ve been around for sixty years, have won two titles and plenty of divisions. No one blamed them for getting Sandy Koufax’d in 1965. They had a historic home run hitter in Harmon Killebrew, a spark plug who could carry a team in Kirby Puckett, and the Jack Morris ten inning shutout. They don't limit payroll to criminal degree like the Pirates or Reds, and they don't make laughable front office decisions like the Rockies or Royals. They've won more than teams like the Rangers, Diamondbacks, Padres and Cubs. But they remain the “Twinkies.” They probably became underdogs in 1987, when an 85 win team defied all odds and beat a Jack Clark-less Cardinals team. 1991 was as deserved as can be, but in baseball, teams get branded and it’s up to the team to shake off the label. Instead the underdog designation was leaned into with scrappy players who were taught to de-emphasize power, much to the chagrin of one D. Ortiz. Not too long after the core of the 1991 team went their separate ways did other teams start to exploit this philosophy. They realized they could just lean on their strengths and pulverize a cute team with some nice players-If they were a good team- the Twins from ’91 on could usually beat the so-so and bad teams. The way the Twins have been historically, they’re a good barometer for teams to know if they are true contenders or not. But the “put the ball in play and pitch to contact” mantra was pretty dated by the time the 90s rolled around. The Twins kept using it, especially under Tom Kelly. Under Ron Gardenhire they evolved into a more stars n’ scrubs kind of pesky, where as an opposing team you pitch around Mauer and Morneau only to get burned by Nick Punto. The team has operated in a more modern way since the new Falvey and Levine regime rolled in after 2016, but the lack of credibility isn’t helped by the shameful playoff losing streak, or the declining ticket sales. Sure, they have new uniforms, a bunch of quality players returning from injury and have made big splashes in free agency two of the last three offseasons, but good luck convincing anyone to jump on the bandwagon. Going anywhere near that bandwagon is a bitter blend of Lucy pulling the ball back from Charlie Brown, a dash of Bill Buckner, a little hubris, that meme of Michael Scott saying I’m ready to get hurt again, the Timberwolves, and a general aesthetic of being both old-fashioned and a little brother. Imagine a toddler wearing a baseball uniform from 1910 and just getting kicked in the nuts repeatedly. If you’re new to the Twins, that’s kind of where we’re at. This may be a controversial take, but I think 2022 was something different. To the untrained eye, a middling team got hot in April and let it slip away due to regression to the mean and some key injuries. The starting pitching was mediocre and the bullpen often struggled to get the game to superstar ace reliever Jhoan Duran. The lineup needed another right-handed bat. But I saw flashes of a complete team with correctable flaws and most importantly, a different feel about them. Maybe it was the media getting to go back into the clubhouses and seeing the human side of the players once again. Or maybe something changed when Correa was brought in. The easiest difference to pinpoint was that the Twins certainly seemed like a more serious team. A lot of that may have come from Correa, which I think is why the front office appears to be making a real play to bring him back. Getting a dedicated, serious, superstar player who is bilingual and wants to lead seemed to make a big difference. Arraez went from being sillier than Juan Soto in the box, to looking almost menacing at times, and played meaningless games down the stretch on a busted hamstring just to say his batting title was legitimate. Tom Kelly would have hated that. Buxton was a warrior- he’s played through injuries before but nothing like what he tried in ’22. Duran had one of the best reliever season in Twins history and I don’t think he smiled once. Ditto for Sonny Gray. Even Rocco Baldelli letting his inner-Rocco out from time to time on the umpires was a welcome change. That isn’t to say having a funny moment from time to time is what led to eighteen straight playoff losses, but with that streak and the somewhat stunning implosion of 2021, it made sense to raise the standard for professionalism a notch. They still struggled against the very best teams but had a winning record against the AL East and played competitive games for the most part, including a few more add-on runs, an Achilles heel of the 2019-2021 teams. Eventually the lineup got overmatched with the system fresh out of right-handed corner guys, Sandy Leon catching half the time, Arraez playing hurt, Gary Sanchez watching his career slip away and Miranda looking gassed. I don’t blame the injuries to the star players; I blame the injuries to the first layer of depth; Royce Lewis’ injury was the most devastating, but Alex Kirilloff’s was a close second. Trevor Larnach looked like he was starting to figure out breaking balls before he tried to play through a hernia. Kyle Garlick going down ended up being a big loss when Jake Cave and Mark Contreras were sent to replace him. How does Jordan Balzovic’s season go if he doesn’t hurt his knee? Those guys were the reinforcements, and the third string options weren’t there, as would be the case with most teams. For example, if the Dodgers top four outfielders all got hurt, that would open holes for them, as well. James Outman looks like a decent prospect, but the thought of him with his sixteen career PA and Joey Gallo being your best options out there is pretty rough. And if you include Kepler’s toe, the Twins had five outfielders (six if you include Lewis) with significant injuries, with all five of them either healthy or “about to be” healthy at the trade deadline. Either Target Field was built on an ancient Native American burial ground, or that is some garbage luck. My point isn’t that the 2022 team was amazing, it’s that they were respectable. Sometimes the best laid plans get you kicked in the stones. Running it back and expecting different results goes against conventional wisdom, but sometimes a group needs to experience a good stone kicking. 2001 was the last time Cleveland chased down the Twins and ended up grabbing the division by a good margin and we all remember what happened after that. And here we are, with 50M to spend and no gaping holes, with a lineup that could look like this: DH Arraez CF Buxton 3B Miranda 2B Polanco 1B Kirilloff RF Larnach LF Gordon C Jeffers SS Farmer Bench: Celestino Sandy Leon or something Eduoard Julien? Kepler/Wallner/Gordon And a rotation that looks like this: Sonny Gray Tyler Mahle Kenta Maeda Joe Ryan Bailey Ober Louie Varland Simeon Woods-Richardson Josh Winder Jordan Balazovic And a bullpen like this: Duran Lopez Jax Thielbar Alcala Moran Pagan (the unseriousness is still strong here) Henriquez Not a lot of holes, and you don’t have to squint hard to see this team easily outperforming its 81-81 projection. Another factor is that the Twins front office is even more desperate now, with their jobs very much on the line. They signed the number one free agent last offseason and had the most aggressive trade deadline in Twins history last year (albeit not a high bar to clear). They are going for it more than any Twins team I can remember, and if they can put the payroll space they have available to any sort of good use, this could be a championship club. Don’t let your past trauma and embarrassment convince you otherwise! If they get Carlos Rodon with that money, they have the best rotation in the Central with incredible depth and can match up with any team in a short series. If they get Correa with that money the lineup is a force and the depth is similarly incredible if Royce Lewis is able to come back and/or Brooks Lee, Austin Martin and Edouard Julien arrive. If they get Willson Contreras with that money the lineup goes eight deep and leaves 30M or so left to continue adding or to add a huge piece at the deadline. It’s interesting stuff, and thanks to this front office’s frugality outside of the handful of big free agent signings, there is a chance for some sustainability here. Mahle, Maeda and Gray are likely gone after this year… and that’s it, unless you’re a big Max Kepler fan. The teams of the 2000s, by comparison, were capped by an astounding lack of quality depth, with massive holes not addressed, or filled with Tony Batista types. Sift through any of the 8-20 batters on a Twins baseball-reference page in the 2000-2010 era and you will be met with the absolute dregs or organized baseball: Brent Gates, Luis Rodriguez, Juan Castro, Brent Abernathy, Brian Buscher, Jason Repko, Matt Tolbert, Luke Hughes, Brian Dinkelman, Rene Tosoni, Clete Thomas- and some of those guys got 300 at-bats. If Gordon and Celestino are paired with Lee, Martin, Lewis, Wallner and maybe even Jeffers, the difference is clear to see. I don’t want to overstate this, because the Astros are on another level with incredible depth that looks to be getting even better, but the Yankees finished second in the AL last year, and if they don’t sign Aaron Judge they are still well into the luxury tax penalty with a lineup consisting of: 1. Whatever is left of D.J. LeMahieu 2. Gleyber Torres unless he is traded 3. Anthony Rizzo 4. The declining and increasingly cringe-swinging Giancarlo Stanton 5. Josh Donaldson and his sub .700 OPS 6. Aaron Hicks 7. Harrison Bader 8. Jose Trevino (That all-star nod is looking a little Bryan LaHair-ish) 9. IKF or a rookie (Volpe and Peraza do look pretty good) My guess is the Yankees would still make a significant signing, but even if it’s Bogaerts or Correa they have a problem here. For the first time in thirty years, I think I would prefer to be in the Twins boat right now. The future is bright, you just have to let yourself see it. For fifteen years or so the Twins were, more or less, embarrassing to be a fan of, alternating between bad, scrappy, and sorta good but always accompanied by a certain unseriousness, whether that be Gardenhire not knowing how to utilize the number two slot in the lineup or how the internet worked, extending Phil Hughes for no reason, or discouraging lifting the ball to the pull side. Thankfully, the roster construction has evolved from a stars and scrubs team (2000’s), to a team full of three WAR guys (2019-2020), to a stars and three WAR guys™ team provided they spend even 30M of the money they have left to reach last year’s payroll, with a front office desperate to make that happen. Becoming a powerhouse is the best way to shake off decades-old narratives and restore the credibility/respect needed to have any intimidation factor come playoff time. Any of the following scenarios work for me: Correa and Tucker Barnhart, 40M AAV Dansby and Narvaez, 40M AAV Rodon and Danny Jansen, 35M AAV (minus some combination of Larnach, Wallner and Kepler, maybe David Festa or someone similar) Bogaerts and a trade for Brandon Woodruff (minus Arraez, RIP, plus a top ten org prospect) plus Mike Redmond out of retirement, 40M AAV I think it will happen in some combination, but these things tend to not work out the way you imagine. Last year we as fans thought they would trade for a starter after Sonny Gray- we didn’t think it would involve Taylor Rogers and now he's at a career crossroads. Trading Donaldson and IKF was beyond my level of creativity, and I would say that trade was a resounding success. The division is terrible, and just as the Twins can probably count on fewer injuries next year, so too can Cleveland count on having some. I cannot stress enough how obnoxious it was that they dealt with no significant injuries the entire year. Their pitching is overrated, their lineup is underrated, but somebody crucial will deal with injury next year. The Twins adding seven WAR via free agency gets them to an 88 win total in theory, and one of their young guys busting out gets them to 91. Then there is the Buxton wildcard- if he misses time but gets healthy for the stretch run, the true talent level goes through the roof. If Kirilloff’s bone shaving operation works (it did for a young Kirk Gibson) he becomes one of the highest upside bats on the team. The Guardians are the division champs for now, and give them credit. But the Twins are no longer the team that accommodates Nelson Cruz’s mid-afternoon naps, Brian Dozier’s Rubix cube prowess or Michael Cuddyer’s magic show then has no idea what intensity is in the playoffs. Even if Correa leaves, his impact has been felt and with a few good signings and a couple in-season breaks, this team will strike fear in teams in ways it hasn’t since Killebrew and Carew. Now return to your regularly scheduled refreshing of MLBtraderumors.

It looks like the pitching market is really shaping up for 2020 in terms of who is going to be available via trade. We have the Red Sox with David Price, Nate Eovaldi and maybe even Chris Sale. The Cubs may dangle Yu Darvish and there has even been some Mike Clevenger talk. Matthew Boyd continues to pop up; Robbie Ray, as well. Beyond that I haven’t heard much, and that’s a shame because the hot item come July is rarely who we expect going into Spring Training. With the way teams prefer to retool as opposed to rebuild these days, it is, a lot of times the underperforming teams that went into the season as contenders that give away assets at the deadline. Look at the Yankees trading away Chapman in ’16. Or who would have thought Zack Greinke was on the block last year at this time? It is true that it is generally the teams that are retooling or rebuilding who have players on expiring contracts that are the best bet. But my point is, what about if teams that we expect to contend, don’t? We didn’t expect the Red Sox to fall off so badly last year, the Phillies had all sorts of hopes pinned to them, as did the Mets, the Angels, and to a lesser extent the Padres and Reds. I won’t include the Cubs since they were in it till the end but there are always a couple of teams that either through injury or underperformance, just don’t do it that year. So I’m going to go through an exercise of finding out who might be available if the 2020 just ends up sucking for every team. I will skip the AL Central because 1) We aren't getting Clevinger 2) The Royals and Tigers don't have any assets unless you really love Brad Keller and Matt Boyd (I don't). My criteria are that the player be at 3 or less years till free agency, and that he be better than Jake Odorizzi, since that's what it really comes down to when we inevitably face Gerrit Cole and the Yankees in October. Grades are for how likely the Twins are to end up dealing with said team. F= less than 0% D=0% C=3% B=6% A=10% Yankees – Along with the Dodgers I would say the Yankees are the biggest locks to make the playoffs. We saw what happened when their entire team got hurt last year: 103 wins. Even if they struggle, their roster is so potent I can’t imagine they would punt on the season by July 31st. If by some stroke of luck they did, Masahiro Tanaka as a rental would likely be available pretty cheap. James Paxton is signed through 2021 so he could be had, as well, but at a much higher price. Chance of anything happening: F+ Rays – This is possible, as injuries to their bullpen, the aging of Charlie Morton, a sophomore slump for Tyler Glasnow and Blake Snell unable to “prove it” would put a lot of pressure on their offense. And Hunter Renfroe may not work out as well as the metrics would predict. Snell is locked up through 2023 and Glasnow has got to be near untouchable, so that leaves Morton as a rental, which I like a lot (Except don’t get fleeced by the Rays like everyone else). Chance of anything happening: C- Red Sox – Price or Eovaldi as a salary dump could make sense, although both come with huge health and performance related warts. I don’t see a Sale trade happening, and Eduardo Rodriguez has 3 more years. Although if he takes the next step and dominates he could be the best target of them all, though it would cost a fortune. Chance of anything happening: C+ Blue Jays – Chase Anderson has shown flashes, though no one seems to give him any credit for being a borderline ace in 2017 before getting hurt and then not being allowed past the 5th inning under Craig Counsell. I could see him having a bounce back and teams going after him, but it would require him figuring out his gopherball problems in the AL East... so maybe Matt Shoemaker is the play? Chance of anything happening: C Orioles – John Means is probably dear to them after 2019. If Alex Cobb bounces back he could be in play, but would he be better than Odorizzi? Chance of anything happening: D+ Oakland – This team has talent and depth, so I don’t see them falling more out of contention than they usually do. If the worst happens, I suppose you could ask about Mike Fiers or try and give a king’s ransom for 3 years of Sean Manaea. Chance of anything happening: D Angels – Suppose there were a situation where the Angels weren’t any good but Dylan Bundy and/or Julio Teheran were pitching well. Wait that actually sounds really likely. I mean not for both to rebound, but one? Sure, it’s a big park out there and the Astros won’t be stealing their signs. Chance of anything happening: C Rangers – You have Lynn and Minor on expiring contracts in a division they likely won’t win. Absolutely, although it sounds like Minor loves Texas a lot, and Lynn would have to repeat being great for the first time in 5 years. Chance of anything happening: B Astros – Can you imagine the mighty Astros playing .500 ball through July? It would require Verlander and Greinke to come back to Earth, the bullpen to realize Will Harris was their glue guy, Carlos Correa to keep getting hurt and Yordan Alvarez to just be a young player with power, not a young player with power who knew which pitch was coming. Add in the turmoil and distractions, a new manager and yeah it’s possible. But who do you get? Give them salary relief for either of the aces, or give a huge prospect package for McCullers? I’d probably lean for the former- Chance of anything happening: D- Mariners – Marco Gonzales could probably be had, but again, is he better than Odorizzi? Not that he isn’t good, and durable, but he strikes me as a clear #3 or 4 and would cost a lot. Chance of anything happening: D+ Braves – They have a hole at 3B but Johan Camargo and Austin Riley aren’t nothing. They are stacked everywhere else so I don’t see them punting in July, but if they did Cole Hamels could be a rental, and Mike Foltynewicz could be available, depending on how he’s pitching. If he struggles then he’s cheap but you don’t want him. If he’s pitching like the #2 he can be, he’s expensive as hell and has a super inconsistent track record, so I’d lean towards Hamels if he’s pitching well and healthy. Chance of anything happening: D Nats – Anibal might be the guy if the Nat’s offense realizes you can’t have a lineup full of #7 hitters and Juan Soto (You CAN have an offense like that if you add Anthony Rendon, as this is proven science). Anibal might not be better than Odorizzi on paper, but he performs in the post and wouldn’t be expensive as a rental. Chance of anything happening: D+ Mets – You go for Thor here when the Mets inevitably implode. Regression for McNeil and Alonso means your offense will likely struggle and although the top of the rotation is great, the bullpen and outfield defense is not even close. You know they wanted Buxton for 2.5 years of Thor, so 1.5 years would require what, Brent Rooker? I’d make that trade. Stroman just ain’t good enough for me, dawg. Chance of anything happening: C+ Phillies – I hate the way the Phillies build teams lately. You throw money at adding on to a contender, you don’t throw money at creating a foundation. Rhys Hoskins and Aaron Nola are your foundation pieces- that wasn’t enough then and it’s not enough now even after the additions they’ve made. Their lineup runs 7 deep and their rotation has 1 sure thing in it. Maybe 1.5 if you like Zach Eflin (Which I actually do). No depth, no NL East, no options for the Twins to trade for unless Arrieta has a big bounce back. Which he won’t- he hasn’t been good in years. Chance of anything happening: F+ Marlins – I don’t think Sandy Alcantara is that great. Do you? Maybe Caleb Smith if he backs it up. Chance of anything happening: D+ Cardinals – I could see them falling hard out of contention, but a part of me knows that won’t happen. Some scrappy guy will come up from triple A and spark their offense while their pitching remains solid as hell and they either win the division or the wild card. Probably the division. But if disaster strikes I don’t know who you target, Miles Mikolas? He’s nice, but I’m not sure about him being better than Odorizzi (He’s been good in the playoffs though). Chance of anything happening: D Brewers – I don’t understand how a team has 1.5 starting pitchers and I still have to acknowledge that they will likely be in contention come July. If their pitching falls apart like I know it should but feel it won’t, they really have no one available unless Brett Anderson is pitching out of his mind. But then you’re targeting Brett Anderson to make a playoff start for you? I wouldn’t make that trade. Chance of anything happening: F+ Cubs – Yu Darvish is considered the guy, but I have never trusted his style of pitching. I saw it when he had a no hitter going against the Twins a few years ago and gave up a home run to Chris Hermann in the 7th. The following hitter was a broken down Justin Morneau, who also homered. The way Darvish looked so affected by the Hermann home run stuck out to me, and I feel like Morneau smelled blood, which Hermann noted in the link above. Darvish is (in my opinion) too cerebral, like a CJ Wilson or a Kevin Slowey. - Those guys can have good years but they won’t be the dumb hero you need to beat the Yankees. Now Jose Quintana on the other hand, might be a good move as a rental. Chance of anything happening: B Reds – You could see this season turning in a hurry. How often do the teams that “win” the offseason have good years? Never. Speaking of cerebral pitchers, Trevor Bauer is playing out the last year of his contract and has shut down the Yankees in the playoffs before. Chance of anything happening: C+ Pirates – Cerebral Chris Archer could bounce back, or perhaps cerebral Trevor Williams could be pried away (What is with the NL Central and nerd pitchers?) Chance of anything happening: C+ Dodgers – I doubt it, but the Dodgers pitching ain’t great and if say, Cody Bellinger gets hurt for an extended period this team could get into desperation mode. But Kershaw and Buehler aren’t going anywhere, Julio Urias would have to be pitching great, and if he was it would take Royce Lewis and Alex Kiriloff to even tempt the Dodgers. I don’t want Kenta Maeda, thank you. Chance of anything happening: F+ D-Backs – I don’t think they would trade Mad Bum in his first year, and the rest of their staff is very young and controllable. Is Robbie Ray good enough to start in the playoffs? I’m gonna say no- the Yankees don’t chase in the playoffs and strikeout guys with so-so control don’t tend to do well in that situation. Chance of anything happening: C- Giants – Cueto and Samardzija could be available and the team isn’t going anywhere. I guess you have the whole first half to evaluate whether they have enough left, but Samardzija is unproven in the playoffs while Cueto was very spotty with the Royals and A Frankensteined Kevin Gausman could be a better play, but he’s never pitched well for more than half a season. Chance of anything happening: B+ Rockies – Kyle Freeland and German Marquez are both big talents. Again, if they are pitching well they would cost a fortune, particularly Marquez since hasn’t ever been bad at the big league level. And if they aren’t pitching well then keep them away from ALDS game 2 against Luis Severino. Jon Gray was a 4.5 win player last year and might be a good change of scenery guy, but he’d be expensive for 2.5 years of control. Chance of anything happening: C+ Padres – The Padres need to add pitching- if they’re winning they need more to augment, and if they’re losing its because they don’t have enough. If Garrett Richards is pitching well I suppose you could ask about him, but the Padres really are a unique case. Chance of anything happening: F After all that, my top 5 targets would be, factoring in the likelihood that the player's team is a seller as well as prospect cost: 1. Jon Gray 2. Charlie Morton 3. Mike Minor 4. Noah Syndergaard t5. Lance Lynn t5. Jose Quintana Morton would be my #1 but I think it is less likely that the Rays punt than any other team on this list.