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St. Paul Saints Pitching Reports: Randy Dobnak and Lewis Thorpe
Lucas Seehafer PT posted an article in Saints
I witnessed the St. Paul Saints lose in Twinsian fashion live and in person Sunday afternoon after Ian Gibaut allowed eight earned runs to cross the plate in the ninth inning, but, thankfully, that’s not what this article is about. This article is about Randy Dobnak and Lewis Thorpe. Randy Dobnak made his third start for the Saints after being optioned off the Twins’ roster on May 3 with the intent of being stretched out and looked much more like his early 2020 self than he did during his previous outing. He sat 92-93 mph with his sinker on Sunday and touched as high as 96 mph with his four-seam according to the in-stadium gun, though there’s been plenty of evidence to suggest that CHS Field is running 1-2 mph hot thus far. His slider and changeup were consistently in the low- to mid-80s, which is commensurate with that he’s shown at the major league level. Dobnak’s command was much more precise on Sunday, something he struggled with mightily during the home opener. His second start of the season saw his sinker engage in its usual ridiculous movement pattern, but constantly dove down and out of the zone. Dobnak was unable to adjust and wasn’t able to locate his off-speed stuff, either, which resulted in five walks. During his third start, however, Dobnak was better able to start his sinker middle-out, allowing it to dive down and in across the plate to right handed batters. For the majority of the game, the Iowa Cubs batters appeared completely confused as to what to do with Dobnak’s sinker. This resulted in five strikeouts and five groundouts, though it could have been as many as seven, for Dobnak. (His first start for the Saints - his line is provided in the second tweet below - was nearly identical to his third.) If Dobnak can continue to locate his sinker and develop his slider, it won’t be long before he is back up with the Minnesota Twins, particularly if the team continues to lose and Matt Shoemaker continues to perform poorly. It would be nice to see Dobnak pitch further than five innings by tightening up his command even more, but two of his three starts with the Saints have shown why the Twins invested in him long-term. As for Lewis Thorpe, he remains a bit of an enigma in my eyes. His three appearances and two starts for the Twins, in which he combined for five strikeouts, five earned runs and two walks across 10 innings of work, were admirable, but largely unimpressive. His fastball averaged 89.7 mph and induced a meager 19.2% Whiff%, according to Baseball Savant, and while Thorpe is never going to be a strikeout king, one would like to see better numbers than that moving forward. While the Twins have primarily used Thorpe as a starter, the Saints have used him out of the bullpen, which may be of interest. He’s only thrown 78 pitches across five innings in his two appearances, striking out three and walking two. Thorpe’s first appearance for the Saints earlier in the week was extremely encouraging. He sat 92-93 mph with his fastball and relied heavily on his off-speed stuff during his second inning to keep batters off-guard. He was also able to locate his fastball, which is imperative for a lefty with his level of velocity. However, his second appearance, while not bad, per se, was less encouraging. Thorpe threw 32 pitches, 21 for strikes, across two innings, striking out and walking one. His fastball topped out at 91 mph, sitting at 90 (and remember the gun is likely fast), and frequently missed up and out of the zone. His command was much more iffy and likely would have been taken advantage of by better (i.e. major league) hitters. When it comes to his future with the Twins, Thorpe’s command of his fastball is of utter importance. Pitching coaches and front offices can live with some erraticism from their pitchers - whether they be starters or relievers - if the velocity and strikeout numbers are there, which hasn’t been the case with Thorpe above the Triple-A level. He doesn’t have the type of secondary stuff that can bail him out consistently if he can’t locate his fastball. Thorpe remains an intriguing prospect, but his stock may drop to that of, say, Devin Smeltzer if his command doesn’t improve and/or if his velo continues to hover closer to 88 mph than 93 mph. MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email -
Boxscore José Berríos: 7.0 IP, 8 H, 4 R, 4 ER, 0 BB, 6 K Home Runs: Sanó (3) Top 3 WPA: Sanó .558, Donaldson .145, Cruz .141 Win Probability Chart (via FanGraphs) Well, that's one way to win a game. Trailing 4-1 entering the bottom of the eighth inning, the Minnesota Twins scored four runs — capped off by a three-run home run off the bat of Miguel Sanó — to claim their first win since defeating the Detroit Tigers 7-3 over a week ago. But — and at risk of being an brutal Debbie downer — suffice it to say that the Twins are still not playing very well right now. José Berríos was fine — his control was much improved compared to his last start, when he walked five and only struck out one — but largely unimpressive. The Athletics owned a 47.8% hard-hit percentage over Berríos’s seven innings and half of their hits — two home runs and two doubles — went for extra bases. (The below images are courtesy Baseball Savant.) But, pitching was not the Twins’ main issue Saturday. Building on a recurring theme, the Twins’ offense struggled mightily once again — the bottom of the eighth notwithstanding — going 3-for-11 with runners in scoring position. As the team entering play on Saturday, the Twins owned MLB's third-worst offense, according to FanGraphs, in regard to win probability added with a cumulative total of -3.45 and the worst in regard to their Clutch metric with a -3.29. A lineup possessing as much raw talent as the Twins — regardless of the number of key contributors who are injured — should not be saddled with such consistent — and truly baffling — ineptitude. While the distant rumblings of the developing storm that is the MLB trade season are starting to become audible, the fact of the matter is that the Twins likely won’t be partaking any time soon. But it is clear that something needs to change and probably sooner rather than later. The head of the head coach — or in baseball’s case, the manager — is rarely the first to roll when teams underperform expectations. Normally, the first order of business is to tweak the lineup and engage in various call-ups and send-downs in an attempt to ignite a spark that turns the offense aflame. The Twins have tried this method and while the likes of Alex Kirilloff, Trevor Larnach, and Kyle Garlick have largely performed well, the results have not followed. The next change that occurs is usually the firing or re-assigning of various assistant coaches. The seats under Rudy Hernandez and Edgar Varela — the Twins’ two hitting coaches — must be particularly hot at the moment and one would think that either or both are the leading candidates to be the first true casualty of the season. The Twins lineup is not performing to expectations and — rightly or wrongly — the hitting coach(es) are beginning to draw the ire of the team’s faithful. Would removing Hernandez and/or Varela from their duties truly impact the team’s on-field performance? It’s difficult to say with any amount of certainty. However, an unfortunate downside of being a coach at the professional level is that your job can sometimes be renounced, even if doing so is simply akin to putting a band-aid on a festering wound. The Twins aren’t going to ship out Donaldson, Mitch Garver or Max Kepler — at least not anytime soon — and while DFAing Miguel Sano may make some sense on paper, the odds of it actually occurring are probably slimmer than none. The Twins will make moves — and perhaps sooner rather than later — but the moves are more likely to do with anyone not named Rocco Baldelli on the coaching staff rather than a significant trade. Up next The Twins will try to pry the series away from the Athletics Sunday afternoon when Kenta Maeda (2-2, 5.08 ERA) goes up against Chris Bassitt (3-2, 3.54 ERA). First pitch is scheduled for 1:10 p.m. CT. Bullpen Usage Spreadsheet TUE WED THU FRI SAT TOT Thielbar 41 0 0 29 0 70 Law 19 13 0 35 0 67 Anderson 0 54 0 0 0 54 Robles 0 0 12 0 17 29 Alcala 12 0 16 0 0 28 Colomé 0 15 0 0 7 22 Rogers 0 0 20 0 0 20 Duffey 0 16 0 0 0 16 MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email
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The Minnesota Twins won and now sit at 13-24. But many of the team's struggles continued to manifest on Saturday. When will the team start making changes? Boxscore José Berríos: 7.0 IP, 8 H, 4 R, 4 ER, 0 BB, 6 K Home Runs: Sanó (3) Top 3 WPA: Sanó .558, Donaldson .145, Cruz .141 Win Probability Chart (via FanGraphs) Well, that's one way to win a game. Trailing 4-1 entering the bottom of the eighth inning, the Minnesota Twins scored four runs — capped off by a three-run home run off the bat of Miguel Sanó — to claim their first win since defeating the Detroit Tigers 7-3 over a week ago. But — and at risk of being an brutal Debbie downer — suffice it to say that the Twins are still not playing very well right now. José Berríos was fine — his control was much improved compared to his last start, when he walked five and only struck out one — but largely unimpressive. The Athletics owned a 47.8% hard-hit percentage over Berríos’s seven innings and half of their hits — two home runs and two doubles — went for extra bases. (The below images are courtesy Baseball Savant.) But, pitching was not the Twins’ main issue Saturday. Building on a recurring theme, the Twins’ offense struggled mightily once again — the bottom of the eighth notwithstanding — going 3-for-11 with runners in scoring position. As the team entering play on Saturday, the Twins owned MLB's third-worst offense, according to FanGraphs, in regard to win probability added with a cumulative total of -3.45 and the worst in regard to their Clutch metric with a -3.29. A lineup possessing as much raw talent as the Twins — regardless of the number of key contributors who are injured — should not be saddled with such consistent — and truly baffling — ineptitude. While the distant rumblings of the developing storm that is the MLB trade season are starting to become audible, the fact of the matter is that the Twins likely won’t be partaking any time soon. But it is clear that something needs to change and probably sooner rather than later. The head of the head coach — or in baseball’s case, the manager — is rarely the first to roll when teams underperform expectations. Normally, the first order of business is to tweak the lineup and engage in various call-ups and send-downs in an attempt to ignite a spark that turns the offense aflame. The Twins have tried this method and while the likes of Alex Kirilloff, Trevor Larnach, and Kyle Garlick have largely performed well, the results have not followed. The next change that occurs is usually the firing or re-assigning of various assistant coaches. The seats under Rudy Hernandez and Edgar Varela — the Twins’ two hitting coaches — must be particularly hot at the moment and one would think that either or both are the leading candidates to be the first true casualty of the season. The Twins lineup is not performing to expectations and — rightly or wrongly — the hitting coach(es) are beginning to draw the ire of the team’s faithful. Would removing Hernandez and/or Varela from their duties truly impact the team’s on-field performance? It’s difficult to say with any amount of certainty. However, an unfortunate downside of being a coach at the professional level is that your job can sometimes be renounced, even if doing so is simply akin to putting a band-aid on a festering wound. The Twins aren’t going to ship out Donaldson, Mitch Garver or Max Kepler — at least not anytime soon — and while DFAing Miguel Sano may make some sense on paper, the odds of it actually occurring are probably slimmer than none. The Twins will make moves — and perhaps sooner rather than later — but the moves are more likely to do with anyone not named Rocco Baldelli on the coaching staff rather than a significant trade. Up next The Twins will try to pry the series away from the Athletics Sunday afternoon when Kenta Maeda (2-2, 5.08 ERA) goes up against Chris Bassitt (3-2, 3.54 ERA). First pitch is scheduled for 1:10 p.m. CT. Bullpen Usage Spreadsheet TUE WED THU FRI SAT TOT Thielbar 41 0 0 29 0 70 Law 19 13 0 35 0 67 Anderson 0 54 0 0 0 54 Robles 0 0 12 0 17 29 Alcala 12 0 16 0 0 28 Colomé 0 15 0 0 7 22 Rogers 0 0 20 0 0 20 Duffey 0 16 0 0 0 16 MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email View full article
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José Berríos struggled, the bullpen struggled, the lineup struggled, but other than that, this one went great! Box score José Berríos: 6.0 IP, 6 H, 2 R, 2 ER, 5 BB (1 HBP), 1 K Home Runs: Donaldson (3) Bottom 3 WPA: Duffey -.295, Rortvedt -.202, Sano -.146 Win Probability Chart (via FanGraphs? It’s often difficult to find words to describe déjà vu and déjà vu-like experiences. Sometimes it’s a nagging feeling in the back of the mind. Sometimes it takes the form of a word on the tip of the tongue that simply refuses to be uttered. Sometimes still it’s an unexplained, yet ominous, pit resting comfortably in the stomach. The Minnesota Twins are not causing their fans to experience déjà vu. They’re trapping them in a real-life manifestation of Groundhog Day. Stop me if you’ve heard this before, but the Minnesota Twins fell to the Detroit Tigers Saturday afternoon thanks to an offense that struggled to cash in runners when they were in scoring position and a bullpen that caved in on itself. We are Bill Murray. Berríos struggles with command José Berríos - who ultimately did see his ERA drop slightly — was unusually dull on the mound. He clearly did not have his best stuff working and struggled with locating his pitches, resulting in him not earning his strikeout until his 104th — and last — pitch of the game. His start on Saturday would have been the longest of his career without recording a strikeout had he not gotten Jake Rogers to chase an off-speed pitch out of the zone in the bottom of the sixth inning. Had Berríos not done so, it would have been his first start since 2018 without registering a punchout. However, if there is a bright side to look on, it’s that Berríos was largely able to battle through his struggles and keep the Twins within reach. As intrepid co-founder of Twins Daily John Bonnes pointed on Twitter, doing so consistently is perhaps the greatest hurdle Berríos has yet to climb en route to developing into a true ace-level starter. Unfortunately for the Twins, relievers Tyler Duffey and Derek Law didn’t have their best stuff either. The two combined to pitch the final two innings of the game, striking out two, walking four and allowing five runs to cross the plate. As a staff, the Twins struck out three and walked nine, which is not conducive for winning baseball. Offensive woes continue Josh Donaldson — who also doubled — hit his third home run of the season, while Jorge Polanco, Jake Cave and Kyle Garlick doubled, however, that was largely the extent of the team’s offensive output. The Twins stranded 16 runners on base and were a combined 1-for-14 as a team with runners in scoring position. Again, not exactly a performance that will lead to many victories. Larnach makes his MLB debut On a more positive note, Trevor Larnach — who recently spoke with Twins Daily — made his Major League debut Saturday afternoon, going 0-for-4 — three of which had runners in scoring position, hence the -.143 WPA — with a HBP. However, as was often the case with Alex Kirilloff during his first handful of games, the numbers are a little misleading. Larnach hit one ball that registered an exit velocity of 107.4 mph with a .420 xBA, according to Baseball Savant; a diving Jonathan Schoop at first base was the lone force that prevented it from being an RBI double. Up next The Twins will look to win the series Sunday afternoon in the rubber match with the Tigers. First pitch is scheduled for 12:10 p.m. CT and will feature Kenta Maeda (2-2, 5.02 ERA) going up against Matt Boyd (2-3, 2.27 ERA). Postgame Interview Bullpen Usage Spreadsheet Click here to see the bullpen usage over the past five days (link opens a Google Sheet). MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email View full article
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Box score José Berríos: 6.0 IP, 6 H, 2 R, 2 ER, 5 BB (1 HBP), 1 K Home Runs: Donaldson (3) Bottom 3 WPA: Duffey -.295, Rortvedt -.202, Sano -.146 Win Probability Chart (via FanGraphs? It’s often difficult to find words to describe déjà vu and déjà vu-like experiences. Sometimes it’s a nagging feeling in the back of the mind. Sometimes it takes the form of a word on the tip of the tongue that simply refuses to be uttered. Sometimes still it’s an unexplained, yet ominous, pit resting comfortably in the stomach. The Minnesota Twins are not causing their fans to experience déjà vu. They’re trapping them in a real-life manifestation of Groundhog Day. Stop me if you’ve heard this before, but the Minnesota Twins fell to the Detroit Tigers Saturday afternoon thanks to an offense that struggled to cash in runners when they were in scoring position and a bullpen that caved in on itself. We are Bill Murray. Berríos struggles with command José Berríos - who ultimately did see his ERA drop slightly — was unusually dull on the mound. He clearly did not have his best stuff working and struggled with locating his pitches, resulting in him not earning his strikeout until his 104th — and last — pitch of the game. His start on Saturday would have been the longest of his career without recording a strikeout had he not gotten Jake Rogers to chase an off-speed pitch out of the zone in the bottom of the sixth inning. Had Berríos not done so, it would have been his first start since 2018 without registering a punchout. However, if there is a bright side to look on, it’s that Berríos was largely able to battle through his struggles and keep the Twins within reach. As intrepid co-founder of Twins Daily John Bonnes pointed on Twitter, doing so consistently is perhaps the greatest hurdle Berríos has yet to climb en route to developing into a true ace-level starter. Unfortunately for the Twins, relievers Tyler Duffey and Derek Law didn’t have their best stuff either. The two combined to pitch the final two innings of the game, striking out two, walking four and allowing five runs to cross the plate. As a staff, the Twins struck out three and walked nine, which is not conducive for winning baseball. Offensive woes continue Josh Donaldson — who also doubled — hit his third home run of the season, while Jorge Polanco, Jake Cave and Kyle Garlick doubled, however, that was largely the extent of the team’s offensive output. The Twins stranded 16 runners on base and were a combined 1-for-14 as a team with runners in scoring position. Again, not exactly a performance that will lead to many victories. Larnach makes his MLB debut On a more positive note, Trevor Larnach — who recently spoke with Twins Daily — made his Major League debut Saturday afternoon, going 0-for-4 — three of which had runners in scoring position, hence the -.143 WPA — with a HBP. However, as was often the case with Alex Kirilloff during his first handful of games, the numbers are a little misleading. Larnach hit one ball that registered an exit velocity of 107.4 mph with a .420 xBA, according to Baseball Savant; a diving Jonathan Schoop at first base was the lone force that prevented it from being an RBI double. Up next The Twins will look to win the series Sunday afternoon in the rubber match with the Tigers. First pitch is scheduled for 12:10 p.m. CT and will feature Kenta Maeda (2-2, 5.02 ERA) going up against Matt Boyd (2-3, 2.27 ERA). Postgame Interview Bullpen Usage Spreadsheet Click here to see the bullpen usage over the past five days (link opens a Google Sheet). MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email
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Kansas City’s Danny Duffy silenced the Minnesota Twins’ hot bats en route to an easy win for the Royals. Read more about the game in today's recap.Boxscore Matt Shoemaker: 3.1 IP, 8 H, 9 R, 8 ER, 2 BB, 0 K Home Runs: Alex Kiriloff (3), Nelson Cruz (8) Bottom 3 WPA: Shoemaker -.347, Garlick -.045, Buxton -.039 Win Probability Chart (via FanGraphs): Download attachment: chart.png Well, the Minnesota Twins’ winning streak was fun while it lasted. The Twins dropped to 9-16 following their drubbing at the hands of the Kansas City Royals Saturday afternoon. The long and short of the team’s loss was that Royals’ pitcher Danny Duffy dealt, while Twins’ pitcher Matt Shoemaker decidedly did not. Duffy threw seven innings of one run ball and allowed only six runners to reach base, three coming via walk and two via hit, including Alex Kiriloff’s third home run of the season in the bottom of the seventh. Unfortunately for the Twins, for as effective as Duffy was, Shoemaker was equally ineffective. He allowed two runs in the top of the first inning, in large part due to Byron Buxton coming up short on a dive on a sinking line drive off the bat of Salvador Pérez that resulted in a double, and things only went downhill from there. Shoemaker exited in the middle of the fourth inning after serving up two home runs and allowing eight runners to cross the plate. Shoemaker — whose ERA ballooned to 7.83 during the loss — had difficulty locating his pitches all afternoon. His fastball sat in the low-90s and was frequently placed in the middle-middle portion of the zone, which isn’t exactly a great recipe for success, particularly when the sinker and splitter aren’t missing bats, either. Nelson Cruz’s two run home run in the bottom of the eighth after Willians Astudillo singled was the only other source of offense for the Twins. Cody Stashak provided 1.2 solid innings of relief after Shoemaker exited, striking out two and bringing his strikeout to walk ratio to 15:4 on the season. Randy Dobnak also appeared out of the pen, pitching three innings and allowing two home runs, both to Andrew Benintendi. The Twins and Royals will meet Sunday afternoon for the rubber match of the series. José Berríos is set to face off against Brad Keller with first pitch slated for 1:10 p.m. CT. Postgame Interview Bullpen Usage Spreadsheet Click here to see the bullpen usage over the past five days (link opens a Google Sheet). Click here to view the article
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Boxscore Matt Shoemaker: 3.1 IP, 8 H, 9 R, 8 ER, 2 BB, 0 K Home Runs: Alex Kiriloff (3), Nelson Cruz (8) Bottom 3 WPA: Shoemaker -.347, Garlick -.045, Buxton -.039 Win Probability Chart (via FanGraphs): Well, the Minnesota Twins’ winning streak was fun while it lasted. The Twins dropped to 9-16 following their drubbing at the hands of the Kansas City Royals Saturday afternoon. The long and short of the team’s loss was that Royals’ pitcher Danny Duffy dealt, while Twins’ pitcher Matt Shoemaker decidedly did not. Duffy threw seven innings of one run ball and allowed only six runners to reach base, three coming via walk and two via hit, including Alex Kiriloff’s third home run of the season in the bottom of the seventh. Unfortunately for the Twins, for as effective as Duffy was, Shoemaker was equally ineffective. He allowed two runs in the top of the first inning, in large part due to Byron Buxton coming up short on a dive on a sinking line drive off the bat of Salvador Pérez that resulted in a double, and things only went downhill from there. Shoemaker exited in the middle of the fourth inning after serving up two home runs and allowing eight runners to cross the plate. https://twitter.com/NickNelsonMN/status/1388569451126083586 Shoemaker — whose ERA ballooned to 7.83 during the loss — had difficulty locating his pitches all afternoon. His fastball sat in the low-90s and was frequently placed in the middle-middle portion of the zone, which isn’t exactly a great recipe for success, particularly when the sinker and splitter aren’t missing bats, either. https://twitter.com/seehafer_/status/1388575543667437575 https://twitter.com/seehafer_/status/1388596117328236544 Nelson Cruz’s two run home run in the bottom of the eighth after Willians Astudillo singled was the only other source of offense for the Twins. Cody Stashak provided 1.2 solid innings of relief after Shoemaker exited, striking out two and bringing his strikeout to walk ratio to 15:4 on the season. Randy Dobnak also appeared out of the pen, pitching three innings and allowing two home runs, both to Andrew Benintendi. The Twins and Royals will meet Sunday afternoon for the rubber match of the series. José Berríos is set to face off against Brad Keller with first pitch slated for 1:10 p.m. CT. Postgame Interview https://twitter.com/BallySportsNOR/status/1388610109857832961?s=20 Bullpen Usage Spreadsheet Click here to see the bullpen usage over the past five days (link opens a Google Sheet).
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Byron Buxton is currently playing out of his mind. Let's enjoy this fact by exploring some of his gaudy numbers.Although they currently find themselves in the midst of a one (1) game winning streak, it’s safe to say that things have not gone overly well for the Minnesota Twins thus far this season. They are only 0.5 games up on the Detroit Tigers for the worst record in baseball and have run into a number of roadblocks, both self-inflicted and virtually random. However, the same cannot be said about center fielder Byron Buxton, who is playing at a level that has rarely been seen before in the history of baseball. Now, I can hear you saying, “Lucas, chill. He only has 68 at-bats,” and, while that criticism is fair and there is no way Buxton will be able to sustain his current level of productivity all season, my response to you, dear reader, is, “I CAN CHILL WHEN I’M DEAD.” Let us take the briefest of moments to simply revel in the pure awesomeness that has been Byron Buxton this season. Lord knows we could use our fair share of positivity at the moment. A picture worth 1.000 OPS For starters, peep this. *weeps* It’s beautiful. WAR, WAR never changes (except for this season for Byron Buxton) Entering the 2021 MLB season, Buxton’s career high for WAR — wins above replacement, for the uninitiated — according to FanGraphs was 3.6. He posted that number during 2017 — his lone healthy season — when he played in 140 games, hit a career-high 16 home runs and won the Platinum Glove. For a bit of reference, an MVP-caliber season is generally considered to be one in which a player accumulates upwards of eight or nine WAR. As of this writing, Buxton has accumulated 2.3 WAR across 17 games, the third-highest of his career if the season ended today. Let’s assume that Buxton appears in 140 games this season — perhaps a big assumption, but one we’re taking in this exercise nonetheless because we’re being positive — he is currently on pace to accumulate 18.9 WAR. Again, his current pace is unsustainable, however, Mookie Betts of the Los Angeles Dodgers posted a WAR of 10.4 in 2018 when he was a member of the Boston Red Sox, which was the highest since Mike Trout of the Los Angeles Angels posted one of 10.2 in 2013. Even if his bat slows down significantly as the season progresses, a WAR of 10.0 shouldn’t be out of the realm of possibility for Buxton as long as he stays healthy. *HOMER SIMPSON VOICE* NEEERD (numbers) Buxton currently owns career-best marks* in (amongst others): Isolated power (slugging% - batting average): .500K%: 20.6%BABIP: .476OPS: 1.409HardHit%: 66.0%Max Exit Velo: 114.1 mphBarrel%: 24.0%BA versus fastballs: .586 (*Note: Buxton has hit six homers off fastballs, while only striking out against them on five occasions)Swings on balls out of the zone: 35.5% (down 13.4% from last season)Again, Buxton’s current rate of offensive production is unsustainable, however, a few of these numbers serve to highlight a change in his approach at the plate. For instance, his propensity to chase balls out of the zone has dropped dramatically this season, which implies a less defensive approach at the plate. This also likely correlates with his decreased strikeout rate, which, in turn, is likely correlated with his improved ability to hit fastballs. *** The Twins have not been good, but Byron Buxton has and his numbers are simply asinine at the moment. They will come down to Earth at some point — they always do, no matter how good the player — but if he can remain healthy, Buxton may have a real chance at being the team’s first league MVP since Joe Mauer in 2009. *These numbers were gathered from FanGraphs as well as Baseball Savant. MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email Click here to view the article
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Fun with Numbers: Byron Buxton is Playing Out of His Mind
Lucas Seehafer PT posted an article in Twins
Although they currently find themselves in the midst of a one (1) game winning streak, it’s safe to say that things have not gone overly well for the Minnesota Twins thus far this season. They are only 0.5 games up on the Detroit Tigers for the worst record in baseball and have run into a number of roadblocks, both self-inflicted and virtually random. However, the same cannot be said about center fielder Byron Buxton, who is playing at a level that has rarely been seen before in the history of baseball. Now, I can hear you saying, “Lucas, chill. He only has 68 at-bats,” and, while that criticism is fair and there is no way Buxton will be able to sustain his current level of productivity all season, my response to you, dear reader, is, “I CAN CHILL WHEN I’M DEAD.” Let us take the briefest of moments to simply revel in the pure awesomeness that has been Byron Buxton this season. Lord knows we could use our fair share of positivity at the moment. A picture worth 1.000 OPS For starters, peep this. https://twitter.com/seehafer_/status/1387844930077446149 *weeps* It’s beautiful. WAR, WAR never changes (except for this season for Byron Buxton) Entering the 2021 MLB season, Buxton’s career high for WAR — wins above replacement, for the uninitiated — according to FanGraphs was 3.6. He posted that number during 2017 — his lone healthy season — when he played in 140 games, hit a career-high 16 home runs and won the Platinum Glove. For a bit of reference, an MVP-caliber season is generally considered to be one in which a player accumulates upwards of eight or nine WAR. As of this writing, Buxton has accumulated 2.3 WAR across 17 games, the third-highest of his career if the season ended today. Let’s assume that Buxton appears in 140 games this season — perhaps a big assumption, but one we’re taking in this exercise nonetheless because we’re being positive — he is currently on pace to accumulate 18.9 WAR. Again, his current pace is unsustainable, however, Mookie Betts of the Los Angeles Dodgers posted a WAR of 10.4 in 2018 when he was a member of the Boston Red Sox, which was the highest since Mike Trout of the Los Angeles Angels posted one of 10.2 in 2013. Even if his bat slows down significantly as the season progresses, a WAR of 10.0 shouldn’t be out of the realm of possibility for Buxton as long as he stays healthy. *HOMER SIMPSON VOICE* NEEERD (numbers) Buxton currently owns career-best marks* in (amongst others): Isolated power (slugging% - batting average): .500 K%: 20.6% BABIP: .476 OPS: 1.409 HardHit%: 66.0% Max Exit Velo: 114.1 mph Barrel%: 24.0% BA versus fastballs: .586 (*Note: Buxton has hit six homers off fastballs, while only striking out against them on five occasions) Swings on balls out of the zone: 35.5% (down 13.4% from last season) Again, Buxton’s current rate of offensive production is unsustainable, however, a few of these numbers serve to highlight a change in his approach at the plate. For instance, his propensity to chase balls out of the zone has dropped dramatically this season, which implies a less defensive approach at the plate. This also likely correlates with his decreased strikeout rate, which, in turn, is likely correlated with his improved ability to hit fastballs. https://twitter.com/seehafer_/status/1387856593539186689 *** The Twins have not been good, but Byron Buxton has and his numbers are simply asinine at the moment. They will come down to Earth at some point — they always do, no matter how good the player — but if he can remain healthy, Buxton may have a real chance at being the team’s first league MVP since Joe Mauer in 2009. *These numbers were gathered from FanGraphs as well as Baseball Savant. MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email -
I caught up with Larnach after Sunday’s simulated game, in which he belted a “double” to left center field that one-hopped the wall — there was no defense in the field, but it would have been a double if a real game was being played — and also pulled a hard hit ball down the right field line. Below is a transcript of our conversation that was mildly edited for clarity.When the Minnesota Twins selected Trevor Larnach with the 20th overall pick in the 2018 draft, they did so with dreams of his powerful, left handed swing slotting in the middle of their order for years to come. While he may still be a year or so away from reaching The Show and turning his team’s dreams into reality, the former Oregon State Beaver — and the Twins’ third-best prospect according to MLB.com — is spending his spring days at the alternate training site at CHS Field in downtown St. Paul, preparing for what will likely be his Triple-A debut. I caught up with Larnach after Sunday’s simulated game, in which he belted a “double” to left center field that one-hopped the wall — there was no defense in the field, but it would have been a double if a real game was being played — and also pulled a hard hit ball down the right field line. Below is a transcript of our conversation that was mildly edited for clarity. Lucas Seehafer: I guess what I want to know most, and I think what the fans would want to know most, is what it’s like to be a minor league baseball player, especially at the higher levels. Trevor Larnach: I guess ...There’s almost two questions to that: You have pre-COVID and you’ve got post-COVID. Post-COVID, I think I could probably say this for everyone, when you don’t have a season it feels more or less like a job than anything else. You’re not necessarily competing every day against other teams and there’s no stat sheet and there’s no schedule. It’s just practice, almost. When you’re practicing aimlessly and you don’t really know where it’s going, that can get kind of tedious. But, at the moment, we’re on schedule for a season, so it’s kind of an in-between. We’ve got an alternate site right now and a season we’re getting ready for, so it’s pretty nice. This is my second year here, so I kind of have a feel, an understanding, of the ballpark and the city and everything else. It’s been a lot of fun. I think we’ve got a super good group of guys and I think we’re ready for a season. We’re hoping it doesn’t get pushed back or anything, but I think I can speak for those guys on that. Lucas: Yeah, I was going to say, how’s it going to feel to be on the field again and playing actual baseball again that matters? Trevor: It’s going to be awesome. I think everyone’s going to be a lot more excited than just having practices every single day. I’m assuming there’s going to be fans everywhere we go. It’s just going to be awesome to face other pitching, other teams, just travel again, you know? It’s just going to be a refreshing feeling to be able to play a season and knowing that you can adjust what you’re doing on the field in comparison to, like, how you’re failing against other teams and stuff. When we’re facing each other, we’re facing guys that are working on their stuff to get to the big leagues and we’re hitting to get to the big leagues at the same time, but it’s just completely different, you know? It’s just very different. Lucas: Kind of speaking more personally about yourself, anywhere you look, you’re one of the highest ranking Twins’ prospects in the system. Do you pay attention to that kind of stuff? Trevor: No. Zero attention. I have social media accounts, but I don’t run them. I’m barely online. I think there’s a lot of technology and a lot of information nowadays that can cause a lot of drama, per se, especially amongst yourself, teammates, family. I have family members that come to me all the time and say, “Hey, I saw this about you.” and I’m like, “Well, there’s been no season, so I wouldn’t take it with all the greatest credibility.” Not to say any website like you guys or whoever else aren’t credible, it’s just different. There’s no situation where there’s a season and you can actually judge people off of what they’re doing. Me, personally, I stay away from it. I think, especially a lot of people are negative on places like Twitter and Instagram even. I just stay away from it. Lucas: When you get to see teammates like [Alex Kiriloff] or [Nick Gordon] or [Travis Blankenhorn] or whoever, when they do get to go to the big leagues, how’s it feel knowing that sooner or later that’s going to be your name that’s going to be called. Trevor: It’s exciting. I think the younger guys, per se, like the guys you just mentioned, I’m a lot closer with, so it’s a lot more exciting when guys go up. You’re cheering for them, you’re rooting for them and I’m hoping there’s a day in a year or however long it might be that we’re all up there together and we’re all competing. I know we have a lot of chemistry together, I know what each and every one is capable of and they’re all good guys, so I’d love to play with them all at once in the big leagues. But it’s not really under my control. Lucas: What do you think you have to work on the most in order to get to that level? Trevor: That’s a good question. [long pause]. You know, I wouldn’t be so hesitant if there was a season beforehand because I would be able to tell you , like, what are my weaknesses, playing other teams, other pitching? But just based off of what I’ve done here, Spring Training, the alternate site last year, I would just say consistency. Just continue to be consistent in the batter’s box, continue to be consistent in the field, consistently being a good teammate. All of those things. I feel like if I stick with that, stick with my routines and my processes and doing everything right, I feel like it will fall into place. I’m in a great mindset. Whether I get a call or not, I’m very positive and when that call does come, I’ll be very, very excited. Very ready as well. Lucas: I’ve got one more for you. When people think of the minor leagues, I think it’s kind of hard to say to what level that level is at. If you were to compare, Double-A, Triple-A, whatever, to what you played against at the Division I level, how would those levels compare? Trevor: Let’s just say this: I’d compare college ball to low-A. That’s what I would compare it to. It’s a little different, though. You can’t necessarily compare it with that much justification, just saying it’s going to be “Low-A is college ball”, because you’re playing every day, you have different arms, you have different people from every different place in the world. Scouting reports are different. The atmosphere is completely different as well, but I would say the competition level, more or less, from the offensive side and maybe the pitching side, here and there, I think it would be low-A. High-A I think is a step above. High-A is closer to Double-A. I mean, obviously, they’re right next to each other. But once you get to High-A, the velo starts jumping a little bit more, the stuff starts getting a little bit nastier, but the command isn’t necessarily there. But when you get to Double-A, that’s when both of those two things — the velo and the command — and the nasty pitching, that all starts to be in the zone. They know what they’re doing with it. Triple-A, from what I’ve heard, I can’t speak on experience, I’ve never been in Triple-A, but, from what I’ve heard, it’s you’ve got guys that have big league time, guys that have a chance at getting in the big leagues and they know what they’re doing. Everybody knows what they’re doing. Everyone’s a very high-level player at Triple-A. Depending on an opportunity, most Triple-A guys could play in the big leagues, but I can’t speak from experience because I haven’t been there yet. MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email Click here to view the article
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When the Minnesota Twins selected Trevor Larnach with the 20th overall pick in the 2018 draft, they did so with dreams of his powerful, left handed swing slotting in the middle of their order for years to come. While he may still be a year or so away from reaching The Show and turning his team’s dreams into reality, the former Oregon State Beaver — and the Twins’ third-best prospect according to MLB.com — is spending his spring days at the alternate training site at CHS Field in downtown St. Paul, preparing for what will likely be his Triple-A debut. I caught up with Larnach after Sunday’s simulated game, in which he belted a “double” to left center field that one-hopped the wall — there was no defense in the field, but it would have been a double if a real game was being played — and also pulled a hard hit ball down the right field line. Below is a transcript of our conversation that was mildly edited for clarity. Lucas Seehafer: I guess what I want to know most, and I think what the fans would want to know most, is what it’s like to be a minor league baseball player, especially at the higher levels. Trevor Larnach: I guess ...There’s almost two questions to that: You have pre-COVID and you’ve got post-COVID. Post-COVID, I think I could probably say this for everyone, when you don’t have a season it feels more or less like a job than anything else. You’re not necessarily competing every day against other teams and there’s no stat sheet and there’s no schedule. It’s just practice, almost. When you’re practicing aimlessly and you don’t really know where it’s going, that can get kind of tedious. But, at the moment, we’re on schedule for a season, so it’s kind of an in-between. We’ve got an alternate site right now and a season we’re getting ready for, so it’s pretty nice. This is my second year here, so I kind of have a feel, an understanding, of the ballpark and the city and everything else. It’s been a lot of fun. I think we’ve got a super good group of guys and I think we’re ready for a season. We’re hoping it doesn’t get pushed back or anything, but I think I can speak for those guys on that. Lucas: Yeah, I was going to say, how’s it going to feel to be on the field again and playing actual baseball again that matters? Trevor: It’s going to be awesome. I think everyone’s going to be a lot more excited than just having practices every single day. I’m assuming there’s going to be fans everywhere we go. It’s just going to be awesome to face other pitching, other teams, just travel again, you know? It’s just going to be a refreshing feeling to be able to play a season and knowing that you can adjust what you’re doing on the field in comparison to, like, how you’re failing against other teams and stuff. When we’re facing each other, we’re facing guys that are working on their stuff to get to the big leagues and we’re hitting to get to the big leagues at the same time, but it’s just completely different, you know? It’s just very different. Lucas: Kind of speaking more personally about yourself, anywhere you look, you’re one of the highest ranking Twins’ prospects in the system. Do you pay attention to that kind of stuff? Trevor: No. Zero attention. I have social media accounts, but I don’t run them. I’m barely online. I think there’s a lot of technology and a lot of information nowadays that can cause a lot of drama, per se, especially amongst yourself, teammates, family. I have family members that come to me all the time and say, “Hey, I saw this about you.” and I’m like, “Well, there’s been no season, so I wouldn’t take it with all the greatest credibility.” Not to say any website like you guys or whoever else aren’t credible, it’s just different. There’s no situation where there’s a season and you can actually judge people off of what they’re doing. Me, personally, I stay away from it. I think, especially a lot of people are negative on places like Twitter and Instagram even. I just stay away from it. Lucas: When you get to see teammates like [Alex Kiriloff] or [Nick Gordon] or [Travis Blankenhorn] or whoever, when they do get to go to the big leagues, how’s it feel knowing that sooner or later that’s going to be your name that’s going to be called. Trevor: It’s exciting. I think the younger guys, per se, like the guys you just mentioned, I’m a lot closer with, so it’s a lot more exciting when guys go up. You’re cheering for them, you’re rooting for them and I’m hoping there’s a day in a year or however long it might be that we’re all up there together and we’re all competing. I know we have a lot of chemistry together, I know what each and every one is capable of and they’re all good guys, so I’d love to play with them all at once in the big leagues. But it’s not really under my control. Lucas: What do you think you have to work on the most in order to get to that level? Trevor: That’s a good question. [long pause]. You know, I wouldn’t be so hesitant if there was a season beforehand because I would be able to tell you , like, what are my weaknesses, playing other teams, other pitching? But just based off of what I’ve done here, Spring Training, the alternate site last year, I would just say consistency. Just continue to be consistent in the batter’s box, continue to be consistent in the field, consistently being a good teammate. All of those things. I feel like if I stick with that, stick with my routines and my processes and doing everything right, I feel like it will fall into place. I’m in a great mindset. Whether I get a call or not, I’m very positive and when that call does come, I’ll be very, very excited. Very ready as well. Lucas: I’ve got one more for you. When people think of the minor leagues, I think it’s kind of hard to say to what level that level is at. If you were to compare, Double-A, Triple-A, whatever, to what you played against at the Division I level, how would those levels compare? Trevor: Let’s just say this: I’d compare college ball to low-A. That’s what I would compare it to. It’s a little different, though. You can’t necessarily compare it with that much justification, just saying it’s going to be “Low-A is college ball”, because you’re playing every day, you have different arms, you have different people from every different place in the world. Scouting reports are different. The atmosphere is completely different as well, but I would say the competition level, more or less, from the offensive side and maybe the pitching side, here and there, I think it would be low-A. High-A I think is a step above. High-A is closer to Double-A. I mean, obviously, they’re right next to each other. But once you get to High-A, the velo starts jumping a little bit more, the stuff starts getting a little bit nastier, but the command isn’t necessarily there. But when you get to Double-A, that’s when both of those two things — the velo and the command — and the nasty pitching, that all starts to be in the zone. They know what they’re doing with it. Triple-A, from what I’ve heard, I can’t speak on experience, I’ve never been in Triple-A, but, from what I’ve heard, it’s you’ve got guys that have big league time, guys that have a chance at getting in the big leagues and they know what they’re doing. Everybody knows what they’re doing. Everyone’s a very high-level player at Triple-A. Depending on an opportunity, most Triple-A guys could play in the big leagues, but I can’t speak from experience because I haven’t been there yet. MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email
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The Minnesota Twins mustered just three hits in a 6-2 loss to the Pirates Saturday afternoon at Target Field. Read more about the game in today's recap.Box Score Michael Pineda: 4.1 IP, 6, 5 R, 4 ER, 1 BB, 5 K Home Runs: None Bottom 3 WPA: Pineda -.275, Arraez -.083, Donaldson -.080 Win Probability Chart (via FanGraphs): Download attachment: chart.png Unfortunately for the Minnesota Twins, a win streak — even one as minor as two games — just wasn’t in the cards. The Twins fell Saturday afternoon to the Pittsburgh Pirates, 6-2, evening up the series at one win apiece. The team is now 7-12 overall. Michael Pineda — who has been arguably the Twins’ best and most consistent starting pitcher during the early portion of the season — struggled in this one, allowing two home runs and surrendering five runs, though only four were earned, over 4 1/3 innings. The team didn’t fare much better at the plate either, as they managed to drive in an anemic two runners and picked up only three hits, two being doubles off the bat of Jake Cave. Willians Astudillo picked up the team’s only other hit, a single. However, Saturday didn’t contain only doom and gloom — just mostly — for the Twins, who did manage to have a couple of bright spots shine through. For starters, Byron Buxton did this: Additionally, Cave stayed hot, picking up two extra base hits after hitting his first home run of the season Friday night. Finally, Devin Smeltzer pitched 4 2/3 shutout innings in his 2021 debut. He struck out three and only threw 52 pitches. Other than that, things were pretty dreary. Jorge Polanco’s batting average dipped back below the Mendoza line following an 0-for-3 day, Ryan Jeffers continues to strike out at an alarming rate and Alex Kirilloff remains (officially) hitless in his major league career. However, there is some evidence that the Twins got a little unlucky Saturday afternoon. They managed to hit nine balls — two less than the Pirates — that qualified as being hard hit by Baseball Savant, though only two — Cave’s doubles — were converted into hits. They also hit six balls that had an xBA of at least .500, including Astudillo’s single and one of Cave’s doubles; Kirilloff's fly out in the second inning had an xBA of .700 and Polanco's line out in the fourth an xBA of .870. So it goes sometimes in the game of baseball. While frustrating due to the greater context of the first 19 games of the season, Saturday's loss was of the run-of-the-mill variety that occur many times throughout the course of the season, even among the league's best teams. The Twins will look to bounce back Sunday afternoon and claim the series two games to one. Matt Shoemaker will take the hill and will face off against and as yet undetermined Pirates pitcher. First pitch is scheduled for 1:10 p.m. CT. Postgame Interview Bullpen Usage Spreadsheet Click here to see the bullpen usage over the past five days (link opens a Google Sheet). Click here to view the article
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Box Score Michael Pineda: 4.1 IP, 6, 5 R, 4 ER, 1 BB, 5 K Home Runs: None Bottom 3 WPA: Pineda -.275, Arraez -.083, Donaldson -.080 Win Probability Chart (via FanGraphs): Unfortunately for the Minnesota Twins, a win streak — even one as minor as two games — just wasn’t in the cards. The Twins fell Saturday afternoon to the Pittsburgh Pirates, 6-2, evening up the series at one win apiece. The team is now 7-12 overall. Michael Pineda — who has been arguably the Twins’ best and most consistent starting pitcher during the early portion of the season — struggled in this one, allowing two home runs and surrendering five runs, though only four were earned, over 4 1/3 innings. The team didn’t fare much better at the plate either, as they managed to drive in an anemic two runners and picked up only three hits, two being doubles off the bat of Jake Cave. Willians Astudillo picked up the team’s only other hit, a single. However, Saturday didn’t contain only doom and gloom — just mostly — for the Twins, who did manage to have a couple of bright spots shine through. For starters, Byron Buxton did this: https://twitter.com/BallySportsNOR/status/1386027888093372417?s=20 Additionally, Cave stayed hot, picking up two extra base hits after hitting his first home run of the season Friday night. Finally, Devin Smeltzer pitched 4 2/3 shutout innings in his 2021 debut. He struck out three and only threw 52 pitches. Other than that, things were pretty dreary. Jorge Polanco’s batting average dipped back below the Mendoza line following an 0-for-3 day, Ryan Jeffers continues to strike out at an alarming rate and Alex Kirilloff remains (officially) hitless in his major league career. However, there is some evidence that the Twins got a little unlucky Saturday afternoon. They managed to hit nine balls — two less than the Pirates — that qualified as being hard hit by Baseball Savant, though only two — Cave’s doubles — were converted into hits. They also hit six balls that had an xBA of at least .500, including Astudillo’s single and one of Cave’s doubles; Kirilloff's fly out in the second inning had an xBA of .700 and Polanco's line out in the fourth an xBA of .870. So it goes sometimes in the game of baseball. While frustrating due to the greater context of the first 19 games of the season, Saturday's loss was of the run-of-the-mill variety that occur many times throughout the course of the season, even among the league's best teams. The Twins will look to bounce back Sunday afternoon and claim the series two games to one. Matt Shoemaker will take the hill and will face off against and as yet undetermined Pirates pitcher. First pitch is scheduled for 1:10 p.m. CT. Postgame Interview https://twitter.com/BallySportsNOR/status/1386072012263657476?s=20 https://twitter.com/BallySportsNOR/status/1386069564434358276?s=20 Bullpen Usage Spreadsheet Click here to see the bullpen usage over the past five days (link opens a Google Sheet).
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The Minnesota Twins announced Saturday evening that their matchup with the Los Angeles Angels slated to begin at 8:07 p.m. CT was postponed “to allow for continued testing and contact tracing involving members of the Twins organization.”The Minnesota Twins announced Saturday evening that their matchup with the Los Angeles Angels slated to begin at 8:07 p.m. CT was postponed “to allow for continued testing and contact tracing involving members of the Twins organization.” Sunday's game has also been postponed. The Athletic’s Dan Hayes provided further detail regarding the reasoning behind the postponement, reporting that a Twins’ staffer as well as outfielder Kyle Garlick have tested for COVID-19 since the team arrived in California. Hayes also reported that the Twins’ most recent positive cases don’t appear to be connected to Andrelton Simmons’ positive test earlier in the week. Additionally, the Twins have not announced further positive results, though contact tracing and testing remains ongoing. Perhaps the more concerning aspect of his positive test, for both the Twins and Angels, is that Garlick was in the Twins’ lineup during the team’s 10-3 loss Friday night and has appeared in their last five games dating back to April 13. This is a developing situation and more news is sure to break in the near future. Stay tuned to Twins Daily for more information as the story develops. For now, we wish a speedy, full recovery for Garlick and the yet-unnamed staffer. MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email Click here to view the article
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The Minnesota Twins announced Saturday evening that their matchup with the Los Angeles Angels slated to begin at 8:07 p.m. CT was postponed “to allow for continued testing and contact tracing involving members of the Twins organization.” https://twitter.com/Twins/status/1383569717164535814?s=20 Sunday's game has also been postponed. The Athletic’s Dan Hayes provided further detail regarding the reasoning behind the postponement, reporting that a Twins’ staffer as well as outfielder Kyle Garlick have tested for COVID-19 since the team arrived in California. https://twitter.com/DanHayesMLB/status/1383578245853966344?s=20 Hayes also reported that the Twins’ most recent positive cases don’t appear to be connected to Andrelton Simmons’ positive test earlier in the week. https://twitter.com/DanHayesMLB/status/1383572567340945410?s=20 Additionally, the Twins have not announced further positive results, though contact tracing and testing remains ongoing. Perhaps the more concerning aspect of his positive test, for both the Twins and Angels, is that Garlick was in the Twins’ lineup during the team’s 10-3 loss Friday night and has appeared in their last five games dating back to April 13. This is a developing situation and more news is sure to break in the near future. Stay tuned to Twins Daily for more information as the story develops. For now, we wish a speedy, full recovery for Garlick and the yet-unnamed staffer. MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email
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Even though he is now 38 years old, Toby Gardenhire is still making memories while playing catch with his dad. The most recent round of toss isn’t going to be one that either father or son will soon forget.“I was pretty cool. Not everybody gets the chance to [throw out] Opening Day first pitch, stuff like that. To catch it, to throw it, whatever, it’s a really cool experience,” Gardenhire said on a blustery Sunday afternoon following a St. Paul Saints’ workout and simulated game at CHS Field. “It’s pretty special for my dad too, because he was with this organization for a very long time. It means a lot to him that they still think of him in that way.” Gardenhire’s father is, of course, former Minnesota Twins and Detroit Tigers manager Ron Gardenhire, who accumulated 1,200 wins over the course of a 16-year managerial career; he also served as the Twins’ third base coach from 1991 until 2001, after managing in the minor leagues for three seasons. The elder Gardenhire retired last September, electing to focus on his health after suffering from multiple stomach ailments during a season played as a one-in-a-generation global pandemic raged. Gardenhire the Younger — a 41st-round pick in the 2005 draft by the Twins — always knew that he’d follow in his father’s footsteps when his playing days ended. He retired after the 2011 season, reaching as high as AAA Rochester, before heading to the University of Wisconsin, Stout to coach at the collegiate level. Five seasons later, he reunited with the Twins as a hitting coach in the lower levels of their farm system. He now finds himself back in AAA, this time in St. Paul as the manager of the newly adopted Saints. “I always knew I was going to coach at some point. [baseball] has pretty much been my whole life. I grew up at the ballpark, when I was a kid I was at the ballpark, I [wouldn’t] even know what to do with myself if I wasn’t coming to the ballpark all the time,” Gardenhire said. “The managing thing just kind of seemed like the best fit. When I started coaching, I was at the University of Wisconsin, Stout as the head coach for a few years, then I went in as a hitting coach for a little bit, but I always knew I’d end up being a manager at some point.” Managing in the minors is different than doing so at the MLB level. The goal of MLB managers is to simply to win, baby, win. Legacies are based on championship banners hung and consecutive postseason appearances, with firings occurring when either fails to manifest. In the minors, the story is different. It’s the manager’s job to make sure that his athletes are ready for the Big Show when their numbers are finally called. “A lot of it is about development, especially at the lower levels. You’re trying to develop kids, so putting the best lineup on the field isn’t always what you’re doing. There’s times when you’re not putting the best guys out there or you’re putting guys in positions that they’re not the most comfortable in,” Gardenhire said. “It’s about trying to develop those guys, so that when they do get up to the Big Leagues, they’re ready for whatever gets thrown at them. It’s a lot about development at the lower levels. As you get going up, then it’s not as much. Then you’re trying to win more games and stuff like that.” Gardenhire is in a unique spot as the Twins’ AAA manager in that not only is he charged with winning more than his lower-level compatriots, but also tasked with developing the Alex Kirilloffs and Trevor Larnachs of the organization. Additionally, the actions he takes as manager are very much dependent on what is going on across the river at any given moment. “The other big thing about it is, what we do [in AAA], a lot of it is based on what happens with the Big League team. The Big League team throws a couple of pitchers, then all of a sudden we have to change the pitchers we throw because of that,” Gardenhire said. “You always have to have somebody on standby basically, ready to go out there in case something happens. We’re constantly watching the Twins games and watching the box scores, talking to their coaches and making sure that we have guys ready to be slotted in whenever they’re needed.” Gardenhire and the rest of the Saints organization are in discussions with the Twins and their front office on a daily basis, planning out potential call-ups or other roster moves in the event of an injury or earned promotion. Rarely does any move occur without Gardenhire having at least some prior knowledge of what may soon be on the horizon, but it’s his job to be ready to adjust his lineup or pitching rotation at the drop of a hat. The Saints open their season on May 4 in Omaha for a six-game series before making their home debut one week later against Iowa. Tickets are available for purchase. MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email Click here to view the article
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Toby Gardenhire Is Following in His Father's Footsteps
Lucas Seehafer PT posted an article in Minors
“I was pretty cool. Not everybody gets the chance to [throw out] Opening Day first pitch, stuff like that. To catch it, to throw it, whatever, it’s a really cool experience,” Gardenhire said on a blustery Sunday afternoon following a St. Paul Saints’ workout and simulated game at CHS Field. “It’s pretty special for my dad too, because he was with this organization for a very long time. It means a lot to him that they still think of him in that way.” https://twitter.com/BallySportsNOR/status/1380267033506512898?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1380267033506512898%7Ctwgr%5E%7Ctwcon%5Es1_c10&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.wxyz.com%2Fsports%2Fwatch-former-tigers-manager-ron-gardenhire-throws-out-first-pitch-to-his-son-in-minnesota Gardenhire’s father is, of course, former Minnesota Twins and Detroit Tigers manager Ron Gardenhire, who accumulated 1,200 wins over the course of a 16-year managerial career; he also served as the Twins’ third base coach from 1991 until 2001, after managing in the minor leagues for three seasons. The elder Gardenhire retired last September, electing to focus on his health after suffering from multiple stomach ailments during a season played as a one-in-a-generation global pandemic raged. Gardenhire the Younger — a 41st-round pick in the 2005 draft by the Twins — always knew that he’d follow in his father’s footsteps when his playing days ended. He retired after the 2011 season, reaching as high as AAA Rochester, before heading to the University of Wisconsin, Stout to coach at the collegiate level. Five seasons later, he reunited with the Twins as a hitting coach in the lower levels of their farm system. He now finds himself back in AAA, this time in St. Paul as the manager of the newly adopted Saints. “I always knew I was going to coach at some point. [baseball] has pretty much been my whole life. I grew up at the ballpark, when I was a kid I was at the ballpark, I [wouldn’t] even know what to do with myself if I wasn’t coming to the ballpark all the time,” Gardenhire said. “The managing thing just kind of seemed like the best fit. When I started coaching, I was at the University of Wisconsin, Stout as the head coach for a few years, then I went in as a hitting coach for a little bit, but I always knew I’d end up being a manager at some point.” Managing in the minors is different than doing so at the MLB level. The goal of MLB managers is to simply to win, baby, win. Legacies are based on championship banners hung and consecutive postseason appearances, with firings occurring when either fails to manifest. In the minors, the story is different. It’s the manager’s job to make sure that his athletes are ready for the Big Show when their numbers are finally called. “A lot of it is about development, especially at the lower levels. You’re trying to develop kids, so putting the best lineup on the field isn’t always what you’re doing. There’s times when you’re not putting the best guys out there or you’re putting guys in positions that they’re not the most comfortable in,” Gardenhire said. “It’s about trying to develop those guys, so that when they do get up to the Big Leagues, they’re ready for whatever gets thrown at them. It’s a lot about development at the lower levels. As you get going up, then it’s not as much. Then you’re trying to win more games and stuff like that.” Gardenhire is in a unique spot as the Twins’ AAA manager in that not only is he charged with winning more than his lower-level compatriots, but also tasked with developing the Alex Kirilloffs and Trevor Larnachs of the organization. Additionally, the actions he takes as manager are very much dependent on what is going on across the river at any given moment. “The other big thing about it is, what we do [in AAA], a lot of it is based on what happens with the Big League team. The Big League team throws a couple of pitchers, then all of a sudden we have to change the pitchers we throw because of that,” Gardenhire said. “You always have to have somebody on standby basically, ready to go out there in case something happens. We’re constantly watching the Twins games and watching the box scores, talking to their coaches and making sure that we have guys ready to be slotted in whenever they’re needed.” Gardenhire and the rest of the Saints organization are in discussions with the Twins and their front office on a daily basis, planning out potential call-ups or other roster moves in the event of an injury or earned promotion. Rarely does any move occur without Gardenhire having at least some prior knowledge of what may soon be on the horizon, but it’s his job to be ready to adjust his lineup or pitching rotation at the drop of a hat. The Saints open their season on May 4 in Omaha for a six-game series before making their home debut one week later against Iowa. Tickets are available for purchase. MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email -
MIN 2, MIL 0: Take a Bow, José Berríos
Lucas Seehafer PT replied to Lucas Seehafer PT's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Berríos said in his post-game interview with Dick and Justin that Baldelli decided to pull him after Buxton hit the homer, otherwise they were going to let him to go to 100 pitches if need be. Tough decision, but the right one as you said. -
José Berríos pitched six no-hit innings with 12 strikeouts before Rocco Baldelli turned Saturday night’s game over to the bullpen. Come read all about it in tonight’s game recap.Box Score Berríos: 6.0 IP, 0 H, 0 ER, 0 BB, 12 K Home Runs: Buxton (2) Top 3 WPA: Berríos .366, Buxton .168, Rogers .111 Win Probability Chart (via FanGraphs): Download attachment: chart.png Everyone has at least one sports moment that is imprinted in their memory. For those who fancy themselves as fans of the Minnesota Twins, these moments usually come in the form of Games. Game 163. Game 6. Game 7. Saturday night, we witnessed another one of those Games, however, this one won’t be remembered for its numerical value. This one will forever be remembered as The José Berríos Game. Berríos was hot from the start, averaging 95.3 mph on his four-seam fastball through the first two innings and touching 96 mph on multiple occasions. For much of last season as well as the later half of the 2019 season, Berríos’ velocity would tend to dip beginning around the fourth inning. That was not an issue Saturday night, however, as his fastball sat 95 all night in addition to a sinker that averaged 94.7 mph, according to Baseball Savant. Berríos combined his fastball velocity masterfully with a devastating curveball and occasional changeup to keep the Brewers’ hitters on their heels all night. He exited after 84 pitches and six innings of ace-level pitching, accumulating 12 strikeouts and zero walks, as well as a 50% overall Whiff% and 34.9 WPA, along the way. Unfortunately for the Twins, Milwaukee Brewers’ starter Corbin Burnes also brought his A-game. Like his Minnesota counterpart, Burnes was nasty from the opening frame, touching 99 mph with his sinker and 98 with his cutter. Burnes is atypical in the current age of MLB as he has a legitimate five-pitch arsenal, all five of which he can employ to strikeout opposing hitters. The Twins found this out the hard way, as they struck out 11 times and did not register a hit. That is until Byron Buxton came to the plate in the top of the seventh inning. Buxton’s second home run of the season broke up Burnes' no-hitter and ended his night. While not as visually impressive as his 456-foot bomb Thursday afternoon, Buxton’s home run to center field in the middle of a no-hitter was perhaps just as impressive. The Brewers’ broke up the Twins’ no-hitter when Omar Narváez laced a single off Tyler Duffey in the eighth inning. (Taylor Rogers entered the game in place of Berríos in the seventh inning and struck out the side.) Minnesota added a second run in the eighth inning on a Luis Arráez single that brought in Andrelton Simmons. In all, the Twins struck out 17 Milwaukee batters Saturday night - in recompense for the 17 strikeouts they suffered at the hands of the Brewers on opening night - and did not walk any in what was arguably one of the most dominant nights of pitching in franchise history. The Twins and Brewers will be back in action on Sunday afternoon when Michael Pineda and Adrian Houser face off with the series on the line. First pitch is scheduled for 1:10 p.m. Postgame With Berríos Bullpen Usage Spreadsheet Download attachment: Bullpen.png Click here to view the article
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Box Score Berríos: 6.0 IP, 0 H, 0 ER, 0 BB, 12 K Home Runs: Buxton (2) Top 3 WPA: Berríos .366, Buxton .168, Rogers .111 Win Probability Chart (via FanGraphs): Everyone has at least one sports moment that is imprinted in their memory. For those who fancy themselves as fans of the Minnesota Twins, these moments usually come in the form of Games. Game 163. Game 6. Game 7. Saturday night, we witnessed another one of those Games, however, this one won’t be remembered for its numerical value. This one will forever be remembered as The José Berríos Game. Berríos was hot from the start, averaging 95.3 mph on his four-seam fastball through the first two innings and touching 96 mph on multiple occasions. For much of last season as well as the later half of the 2019 season, Berríos’ velocity would tend to dip beginning around the fourth inning. That was not an issue Saturday night, however, as his fastball sat 95 all night in addition to a sinker that averaged 94.7 mph, according to Baseball Savant. https://twitter.com/dohyoungpark/status/1378513333922496515 Berríos combined his fastball velocity masterfully with a devastating curveball and occasional changeup to keep the Brewers’ hitters on their heels all night. He exited after 84 pitches and six innings of ace-level pitching, accumulating 12 strikeouts and zero walks, as well as a 50% overall Whiff% and 34.9 WPA, along the way. https://twitter.com/seehafer_/status/1378512561985961984 Unfortunately for the Twins, Milwaukee Brewers’ starter Corbin Burnes also brought his A-game. Like his Minnesota counterpart, Burnes was nasty from the opening frame, touching 99 mph with his sinker and 98 with his cutter. Burnes is atypical in the current age of MLB as he has a legitimate five-pitch arsenal, all five of which he can employ to strikeout opposing hitters. The Twins found this out the hard way, as they struck out 11 times and did not register a hit. That is until Byron Buxton came to the plate in the top of the seventh inning. https://twitter.com/Twins/status/1378515583965167618?s=20 Buxton’s second home run of the season broke up Burnes' no-hitter and ended his night. While not as visually impressive as his 456-foot bomb Thursday afternoon, Buxton’s home run to center field in the middle of a no-hitter was perhaps just as impressive. https://twitter.com/seehafer_/status/1378511748228120576 The Brewers’ broke up the Twins’ no-hitter when Omar Narváez laced a single off Tyler Duffey in the eighth inning. (Taylor Rogers entered the game in place of Berríos in the seventh inning and struck out the side.) Minnesota added a second run in the eighth inning on a Luis Arráez single that brought in Andrelton Simmons. In all, the Twins struck out 17 Milwaukee batters Saturday night - in recompense for the 17 strikeouts they suffered at the hands of the Brewers on opening night - and did not walk any in what was arguably one of the most dominant nights of pitching in franchise history. The Twins and Brewers will be back in action on Sunday afternoon when Michael Pineda and Adrian Houser face off with the series on the line. First pitch is scheduled for 1:10 p.m. Postgame With Berríos Bullpen Usage Spreadsheet
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Twins Claim OF Kyle Garlick
Lucas Seehafer PT replied to Seth Stohs's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Now go get Trout and Alfredo (Rodriquez)! I've heard Garlick goes well with them. -
Let's identify a free agent and potential trade target starting pitcher for the Twins by analyzing Statcast's new spin metrics.The Minnesota Twins’ offseason is moving at a snail’s pace and it turns out that the snail is in it’s waning years and crippled by various forms of arthritis. The team’s only significant transaction to date has been the signing of relief pitcher Hansel Robles to a one-year, $2 million deal at the end of December, otherwise the Twins’ transaction page is littered with minor league deals. Those in and around the team with working knowledge of how the Twins are approaching the offseason firmly believe that they will make at least one move of significance before Spring Training starts in approximately six weeks. Most of the rumors surrounding the Twins have them focused on obtaining a shortstop as well as various relief pitchers. However, one area where the team also figures to be exploring its options is the starting pitching market. The Twins currently have three rotation spots locked up for the 2021 season in Kenta Maeda, Jose Berrios, and Michael Pineda. Randy Dobnak and Devin Smeltzer will also undoubtedly see their fair share of starts and Jhoan Duran and Jordan Balazovic are on the cusp of making their Major League debuts. But that still leaves plenty of room for the Twins to bring in at least one starting pitcher of consequence. They have been linked to the likes of Jake Odorizzi — who is reportedly seeking a multiyear deal of at least $10 million per year guaranteed — and the recently signed Corey Kluber. Pitchers that fit this mold would primarily add to the starting rotation’s depth as they would clearly be the third or fourth best starter on the Twins’ roster without impacting its overall ceiling. However, a fair amount of intriguing names remain on the open market — both via free agency and trades — that could not only make the starting unit deeper, but also more dangerous. One way to determine which names the Twins may be wise to go after is by looking at the spin and movement of each individual’s pitches. This isn’t a new concept by any means, but for the uninitiated, the thought process goes something like this: more spin on the ball = more movement = more difficult to hit the pitch = more strikeouts = less runs allowed = more wins. That’s an over simplified explanation that doesn’t always convert to real life, but you get the picture. There are a number of pitchers still available, so going over every single one would go beyond the scope of this article. That said, let’s discuss two names that may be of particular interest. THE STANDARD But before we do that and in order to set a comparison for how the pitchers on the market stack up, it would be prudent to take a look at the data of various pitches of the Twins’ best hurler. (Here’s a key for interpreting the chart: Parameters were set so that each pitch had to be thrown at least 100 times during the 2020 season. This will be true for the two examples below, as well.The deeper the color the further away that value is from average.Positive values are above average, while negative values are below.All data was gathered via Baseball Savant.)Maeda relied upon his slider and changeup much more during his first season with the Twins compared to his previous seasons while in Dodger blue, consistent with the team’s overall philosophy of leaning on offspeed pitches when the pitcher’s fastball isn’t their most dominant option. This is backed up in the chart above — as well as the more nuanced data found on Baseball Savant — that shows Maeda’s fastball to be pretty average in terms of both speed and overall movement. However, what may be interesting to note is that Maeda’s slider isn’t all that great either, at least on it’s own. What makes Maeda’s slider useful is the dominance of his changeup. The chart and graphic above can be a little confusing, so I’ll try to succinctly summarize. Active spin percentage is the amount of the baseball’s spin that goes toward the pitch’s break and/or drop; the higher the percentage, the less wasted spin. The clocks represent the direction in which each pitch moves based on spin at the release of the pitch (left) versus when it reaches home (right). For Maeda, this means that his slider breaks as expected — which is to say not much in any direction — whereas his changeup drops significantly based on what would be assumed when it leaves his hand. To put it simply: Maeda’s changeup is one of the best in the game due to its movement and spin. Now that we have developed a baseline, let’s look at two of the Twins’ options on the market. FREE AGENT OPTION Jake Arrieta Much like Maeda, Arrieta boasts a changeup with great movement, but where he differentiates himself from the Twins’ ace is that he has another pitch that moves quite a bit: his sinker. Arrieta is but a shell of his former Cy Young winning self, but he still may have some gas left in the tank. Part of his struggles over the last few seasons have been due to bad luck, but the main reason is a K% that has precipitously dropped from 27.1% there season he was named the National League’s best pitcher to 16.8% last season. If there is a pitching coach that could help Arrieta right the ship — at least on a one-year deal — it’s Wes Johnson. Perhaps the key to raising his K% is a change in pitch mix? TRADE OPTION German Marquez, Colorado Rockies At first blush, Marquez’s data doesn’t look all that promising. His movement is below average for all of his pitches and they move in an expected manner. However, the data should be taken with a grain of salt as Marquez spent a good chunk of 2020 — and his career — pitching in the unfriendly confines of Coors Field. The thin atmosphere in Denver makes playing at Coors the bane of every pitcher’s existence. The ball flies further when hit and moves less when thrown as the ball has less drag to fight. It’s simple physics! It’s safe to say that Marquez’s stuff has suffered because of the Colorado air and his numbers back this assumption up. Marquez is a mid- to top-end starter when he isn’t pitching a mile above sea level and rather poor when he is. Pitching a full season in the American Midwest would may result in Marquez fighting for an All-Star spot due in large part to improved stuff. Under the tutelage of Johnson, Marquez would be a contender for making a Maeda-esque jump. MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email Click here to view the article
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The Minnesota Twins’ offseason is moving at a snail’s pace and it turns out that the snail is in it’s waning years and crippled by various forms of arthritis. The team’s only significant transaction to date has been the signing of relief pitcher Hansel Robles to a one-year, $2 million deal at the end of December, otherwise the Twins’ transaction page is littered with minor league deals. Those in and around the team with working knowledge of how the Twins are approaching the offseason firmly believe that they will make at least one move of significance before Spring Training starts in approximately six weeks. Most of the rumors surrounding the Twins have them focused on obtaining a shortstop as well as various relief pitchers. However, one area where the team also figures to be exploring its options is the starting pitching market. The Twins currently have three rotation spots locked up for the 2021 season in Kenta Maeda, Jose Berrios, and Michael Pineda. Randy Dobnak and Devin Smeltzer will also undoubtedly see their fair share of starts and Jhoan Duran and Jordan Balazovic are on the cusp of making their Major League debuts. But that still leaves plenty of room for the Twins to bring in at least one starting pitcher of consequence. They have been linked to the likes of Jake Odorizzi — who is reportedly seeking a multiyear deal of at least $10 million per year guaranteed — and the recently signed Corey Kluber. Pitchers that fit this mold would primarily add to the starting rotation’s depth as they would clearly be the third or fourth best starter on the Twins’ roster without impacting its overall ceiling. However, a fair amount of intriguing names remain on the open market — both via free agency and trades — that could not only make the starting unit deeper, but also more dangerous. One way to determine which names the Twins may be wise to go after is by looking at the spin and movement of each individual’s pitches. This isn’t a new concept by any means, but for the uninitiated, the thought process goes something like this: more spin on the ball = more movement = more difficult to hit the pitch = more strikeouts = less runs allowed = more wins. That’s an over simplified explanation that doesn’t always convert to real life, but you get the picture. There are a number of pitchers still available, so going over every single one would go beyond the scope of this article. That said, let’s discuss two names that may be of particular interest. THE STANDARD But before we do that and in order to set a comparison for how the pitchers on the market stack up, it would be prudent to take a look at the data of various pitches of the Twins’ best hurler. https://twitter.com/seehafer_/status/1350499973553598465 (Here’s a key for interpreting the chart: Parameters were set so that each pitch had to be thrown at least 100 times during the 2020 season. This will be true for the two examples below, as well. The deeper the color the further away that value is from average. Positive values are above average, while negative values are below. All data was gathered via Baseball Savant.) Maeda relied upon his slider and changeup much more during his first season with the Twins compared to his previous seasons while in Dodger blue, consistent with the team’s overall philosophy of leaning on offspeed pitches when the pitcher’s fastball isn’t their most dominant option. This is backed up in the chart above — as well as the more nuanced data found on Baseball Savant — that shows Maeda’s fastball to be pretty average in terms of both speed and overall movement. However, what may be interesting to note is that Maeda’s slider isn’t all that great either, at least on it’s own. What makes Maeda’s slider useful is the dominance of his changeup. https://twitter.com/seehafer_/status/1350506415266422786 The chart and graphic above can be a little confusing, so I’ll try to succinctly summarize. Active spin percentage is the amount of the baseball’s spin that goes toward the pitch’s break and/or drop; the higher the percentage, the less wasted spin. The clocks represent the direction in which each pitch moves based on spin at the release of the pitch (left) versus when it reaches home (right). For Maeda, this means that his slider breaks as expected — which is to say not much in any direction — whereas his changeup drops significantly based on what would be assumed when it leaves his hand. To put it simply: Maeda’s changeup is one of the best in the game due to its movement and spin. Now that we have developed a baseline, let’s look at two of the Twins’ options on the market. FREE AGENT OPTION Jake Arrieta https://twitter.com/seehafer_/status/1350512006382710787 https://twitter.com/seehafer_/status/1350512267490697222 Much like Maeda, Arrieta boasts a changeup with great movement, but where he differentiates himself from the Twins’ ace is that he has another pitch that moves quite a bit: his sinker. Arrieta is but a shell of his former Cy Young winning self, but he still may have some gas left in the tank. Part of his struggles over the last few seasons have been due to bad luck, but the main reason is a K% that has precipitously dropped from 27.1% there season he was named the National League’s best pitcher to 16.8% last season. If there is a pitching coach that could help Arrieta right the ship — at least on a one-year deal — it’s Wes Johnson. Perhaps the key to raising his K% is a change in pitch mix? TRADE OPTION German Marquez, Colorado Rockies https://twitter.com/seehafer_/status/1350521544427118595 https://twitter.com/seehafer_/status/1350521680368697345 At first blush, Marquez’s data doesn’t look all that promising. His movement is below average for all of his pitches and they move in an expected manner. However, the data should be taken with a grain of salt as Marquez spent a good chunk of 2020 — and his career — pitching in the unfriendly confines of Coors Field. The thin atmosphere in Denver makes playing at Coors the bane of every pitcher’s existence. The ball flies further when hit and moves less when thrown as the ball has less drag to fight. It’s simple physics! It’s safe to say that Marquez’s stuff has suffered because of the Colorado air and his numbers back this assumption up. https://twitter.com/seehafer_/status/1350523287525335042?s=20 Marquez is a mid- to top-end starter when he isn’t pitching a mile above sea level and rather poor when he is. Pitching a full season in the American Midwest would may result in Marquez fighting for an All-Star spot due in large part to improved stuff. Under the tutelage of Johnson, Marquez would be a contender for making a Maeda-esque jump. MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email
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A starting rotation of Maeda-Berrios-Pineda-Odorizzi - should he re-sign - is a solid core that is perhaps one move away from being one of the best that the American League has to offer. Maybe that one move is trading for a Sonny Gray or a Luis Castillo from the Cincinnati Reds. Or maybe that one move is less obvious.To say that the 2020 MLB offseason is moving at a snail’s pace would be a bit of an understatement. Few teams have made any moves of significance — save for the San Diego Padres — including the Minnesota Twins, whose only major league signing is relief pitcher Hansel Robles. The majority of the hot stove — er, cold stove? — Twins-centric rumors being bandied about as of late tend to focus on the team heavily considering bringing in a shortstop via free agency or trade. However, it is widely assumed that the Twins will also be players in the starting pitching market as at least one rotation spot is up for grabs. Kenta Maeda, Jose Berrios, and Michael Pineda are locks to be in the starting rotation on opening day. Randy Dobnak, Devin Smeltzer, and perhaps Lewis Thorpe will make their fair share of spot starts. Jhoan Duran and Jordan Balazovic are waiting in the wings. Jake Odorizzi is reportedly open to a return to Minnesota. Mike Foltynewicz was an All-Star in 2018 with the Atlanta Braves. During that magical season, he posted an ERA of 2.85, averaged 9.9 K/9, induced a ton of ground balls, and boasted an ERA- of 70, according to FanGraphs. Folty, as he is affectionately known, was waived by Atlanta after one start this past summer and went unclaimed. How is it that one of the better pitchers in the game can fall so drastically and rapidly? Well, for starters, Foltynewicz’s 2018 campaign was likely a bit of a fluke. A quick glance over his statistics reveals that nearly every category was a career-best by quite a wide margin, but his success can be summarized fairly succinctly. Foltynewicz’s 2018 K/9, HR/9, and HR/FB were significantly better than his career numbers (9.93/8.59, 0.84/1.33, 9.6%/12.9%, respectively). Why? His slider was absolutely dominant. The Twins’ pitching staff’s love affair with the slider is well-known and documented at this point (see: Wisler, Matt). Their belief that they can beef up a pitcher by taking their strongest asset and relying on it heavily has paid significant dividends for them in recent seasons. For Madeda, it was his crazy deep arsenal, for Dobnak his earth-plunging sinker. Foltynewicz’s slider was one of the best the game had to offer in 2018 according to Baseball Savant. It struck out 106 batters — 52% of his total — and gave up only two home runs; it produced a .180 WOBA and 36.8% Whiff%. However, these numbers returned to his career norms in 2019 in addition to losing nearly six miles per hour on his fastball by 2020. That last part is probably the most concerning thing about Foltynewicz moving forward. Right-handed pitchers who struggle to top 90 mph have almost no role in modern MLB where gas and movement rule the land. Such a drastic drop in velocity is often a sign of injury, however, he has never been diagnosed with an injury since the 2019 season when he missed the Braves’ first 25 games with a bone spur in his right elbow. Perhaps his velocity can be attributed to reduced confidence in his stuff (i.e. “the yips”)? Regardless, if there is one team that could help Foltynewicz return to his 2018 self it’s probably the Twins. Pitching coach Wes Johnson is one of the best in the business in unlocking a pitcher’s potential and in Foltynewicz it’s known that that potential is of All-Star caliber. Foltynewicz could likely be had on a minor league deal similar to that of Jhoulys Chacin last Spring. Bringing on Foltynewicz at that price is the epitome of a low risk-high reward move. At worst, Foltynewicz is cut without repercussion, at best, the Twins bring on an All-Star level pitcher at minimal price. MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email Click here to view the article