RDLARK

LOL. I literally just put (and then deleted when I saw yours) this same comment.

I’d be pretty excited if we trade for Musgrove. He looks like an emerging stud.

Agree -- At the very least, he has the potential to be very good. Doesn't mean he will be great for sure, but his ceiling is pretty high.

Agreed. Plenty of reason to be excited. I look at these two, and a few others, as a portfolio of assets. If just a couple hit the Twins are in good shape. Also, thanks!

As a result, yes. You’d obviously prefer to strand runners. But when you think about skills, the ability to strand runners isn’t really a skill. It’s a function of good fortune, generally speaking. That said, pitchers who are good at striking batters out are more likely to strand runners (I went into this a little in the Dobnak post), because some runs score on ground outs and fly outs. Nobody scores on a strikeout, obviously. That being the case, a guy like Thorpe, with a high K rate should have a higher strand rate, not an extremely low one (I generally just expect most pitchers to be about average at stranding runners, TBH).

That’s interesting. I’m going to try to look into this. Thanks!

Okay, time to take a look at Lewis Thorpe. This is, afterall, the reason we all woke up this morning, right? Thankfully for all involved, we can skip the lengthy preamble and just get into the analysis. Like Dobnak, whom I covered in this space last week, Thorpe made his MLB debut for the Twins last season (though he started the year off in AAA, whereas Dobnak basically covered every level in the organization in 2019). Let’s take a look at Thorpe’s results from his MLB stint: • 27.2 IP (essentially the same sample as Dobnak) • 10.08 K/9 (yes, please) • 3.25 BB/9 (that’ll play) • 6.18 ERA (yikes) • 3.47 FIP (okay, let’s take a look at the BABIP, HR rates, and other batted ball tendencies) • 4.14 xFIP (so he had a lower than league average HR/FB rate, but honestly ½ of a run isn’t much in this small of a sample, it’s a difference of 1.5 ER allowed in 27 IP) I see a number of things I want to look at here, and we will see where this takes us: • Swinging Strike Rate: 11.8% • Zone Percentage: 44.3% • BABIP: .438 • HR/9: 0.98 • HR/FB: 10.3% • Line Drive Rate: 31.3% Let’s start with his plate discipline numbers to see whether we think these strikeout and walk rates, which are the stuff aces are made of (a quick a dirty thing to do to identify elite skills is to subtract the BB/9 from the K/9; anything over 6 is great). Let’s start off with the walks and underlying control skills. Thorpe was in the strike zone with 44.3% of his pitches in his limited MLB innings. Among qualified starters, he would have ranked 17th, just behind Yu Darvish and just ahead of Lance Lynn. As I mentioned last week, there were 61 qualified starters, so the top 20 is the top 1/3rd. It’s also worth mentioning that his BB/9 in nearly 100 AAA innings was 2.34 in 2019 and in AA and AAA in 2018, he compiled 130 innings with a 2.5 BB/9. I think it’s safe to say Thorpe has great control and can likely be relied upon to avoid free passes. On to strikeouts. Thorpe has consistently delivered a K/9 in the double digits throughout his time in AA, AAA, and MLB in 2017 (10.50), 2018 (10.92 in AA; 10.80 in AAA) and 2019 (11.12 in AAA, 10.08 in MLB). I’m happy to report that his swinging strike rate during his MLB stint backs this up. His 11.8 swinging strike rate would have been 22nd among qualifying starters (again, right around the top 1/3). As I noted with Dobnak, it is not particularly common for the same pitcher to post strong control numbers and miss a lot of bats. Here is the list of pitchers who had a zone percentage of at least 44.3% and a swinging strike rate of at least 11.8% (if you read the Dobnak post last week, this will look familiar). • Gerrit Cole – 16.8%/45.2% • Max Scherzer – 16.4%/45.6% • Justin Verlander – 16.1%/45.2% • Lucas Giolito – 15%/47.2% • Yu Darvish – 13.4%/44.5% • Charlie Morton – 12.9%/45.1% • German Marquez – 12.7%/46.6% • Walker Buehler – 12.1%/46.5% • Joe Musgrove – 12%/45.5% Still good company, just as it was for Dobnak last week (and I’m on board with prying Musgrove away from Pittsburgh). Okay, so he’s in the zone and missing bats. Those skills have consistently translated to strikeouts and walks (for pitchers in general, and for Thorpe since he was promoted to AA in 2017). So if he’s so great why did he post an ERA of more than 6 runs per nine innings? I know a lot of people won’t like to hear this, but he was unlucky. Pitchers cannot control everything that happens, and particularly in small samples some bad luck can really torch your ratios. For starters, he allowed a .438 BABIP. The highest BABIP among qualified starters was .347 – one hundred points lower! That’s a fluke. Thorpe also only stranded 66% of his baserunners. Only three qualified starters had lower strand rates, and none of then posted a K/9 over 8.5 (Musgrove had the lowest strand rate in the major leagues; more evidence that he'd be a great add). He was helped a bit by having a relatively low HR/FB, particularly given the fact that he allowed a lot of hard contact (39.8%), and the BABIP was fueled by a 31.3% line drive rate. It’s likely intuitive to anyone who has read this far, but line drives are by far the most likely type of batted ball to result in a base hit. Again, though, so much of all of this is dependent on such a small sample that it’s hard to know if that’s really who he is. If those line drives turned into fly balls he’d likely see his BABIP come down, but he’d also likely allow more home runs. It’s also feasible that a pitcher who misses bats like he does can figure out how to induce weaker contact, especially if he relies more heavily on his slider. A commenter noted on the Dobnak post that Dobnak had faced some weaker offenses. That’s also true of Thorpe, who faced AL central foes for the majority of his appearances. Something to keep in mind. Honestly, he’s a lot like Dobnak. The biggest difference between the two (aside from pedigree) is that Dobnak had good fortune with batted balls and Thorpe had bad fortune. All-in-all, I’d say Thorpe gives us plenty of reason to be excited about the possibilities for the back end of the rotation in 2020. The Twins don’t need all of the potential starters on the 40-man to be great, and they appear to have put together a system full of high variance, high upside arms. Not a bad place to be.

Agreed. I'm all for dealing prospects for guys under team control. Not crazy to think they could do an extension with Gray after they get him, too. He's what you hope Balazovic or Duran can be.

I agree with this re someone like Dobnak, but I think they'd move a promising prospect pitcher if the deal was right (e.g., to acquire Jon Gray).

I will be really surprised if he gets traded. If he is awesome they will obviously want to keep him. If he's middling, I don't think they'll find a market for him. Cave gets mentioned a lot as a trade chip, though, and he's the one who makes sense to me. I could see a team buying in to the idea that he could flourish if he's given every day at bats.

Definitely agree -- Pretty much all facets of this team will be interesting/fun to watch this season. Cheers!

Bailey is the default #3 to start the season. By mid-June he's (at best) the Twins' 5th best starter. It would not shock me to see him bumped from the rotation, but I'm just starting this journey. I've heard good things on the #narrative that he turned things around in Oakland.

Nice. I'd need to look into the tendencies of these teams re swinging strikes to see where they stood. Not all bad teams swing and miss a lot. Also, obviously his ability to be in the zone is independent of the opposing team. Good stuff.

If there is a time to dream of such things, it's surely in January.

Thank you! At the very least, we have reason to think he could be fun to watch.

I forgot about that. thanks!

Another thing to consider is whether they stick with a 3-man bench (carrying 13 pitchers wasn't unusual with a 25-man roster) and use the extra roster spot to keep another pitcher active. Given the fact that they're starting the season short-handed in the rotation due to Pineda's suspension and Hill's recovery, and assuming Buxton and Polanco are fully healthy coming back from their surgeries, carrying 14 pitchers might make sense. This is particularly true given the versatility the Twins have built in to their roster. Marwin and Adrianza can both play 6 positions credibly. Among the options they have already rostered (I'm guessing they aren't looking to sign a middling, at best, FA OF), I'd expect Cave to be the 4th bench bat.

Thanks!

Agreed! I'm looking forward to seeing what he can do.

I would probably guess more in the 3.75-3.90 range for ERA, and I'm going to say he gets 125-130 (8.5ish K/9) strikeouts in 135ish innings. Guys with swing-and-miss stuff like he has displayed tend to figure out how to put hitters away. MLB hitters are obviously better than MiLB hitters, but he's only 25, so he's got upside in terms of pitch sequencing and velo. In general, I'd say my thoughts on his ERA are fueled by this expectation that he starts to get more strikeouts. I mentioned his HR/FB and HR/9, but he also stranded 77.4% of runners, which we shouldn't expect him to be able to do if we cannot get more Ks. Of the 18 qualified starters whose LOB% was at least 77.4%, 3 had a K/9 below 8 while 12 had a K/9 above 9. Since we have to assume some homers are coming, he needs to up the strikeouts, and I think he will. Cheers!

I’m going to dive into blogging here and see where it goes. Sometimes, as a writer, the hardest thing is to come up with an idea that’s worth writing about and that people will actually be interested to read. I expect that to be my struggle, but I’ve got what I think will be an interesting series to kick things off, and maybe that will be the extent of my contributions. Time will tell. In any case, nobody wants to read about me. You want to see what information you can glean about our Twins. Given the rampant discussions on Twitter and on various blogs regarding the state of the Twins’ pitching staff, I thought it would be interesting to do a series on the numbers underlying the starters currently projected to be in the mix for the Twins. While I’m sure others will make starts this season, here are the guys I’m hoping to work my way through for this series: Jose Berrios Jake Odorizzi Michael Pineda Rich Hill Homer Bailey Devin Smeltzer Lewis Thorpe Randy Dobnak By way of framing the series, I think there are pretty clearly three different groups. The known (but in some cases misunderstood) quantities, the new veterans, and the prospects. When the season starts, we know Pineda and Hill will not be in the rotation, and we know Berrios, Odorizzi, and Bailey will be (barring injury, of course). That being the case, I decided to start off by diving into the three prospects (a term I’m using loosely, given the MLB experience they got last year), starting with Dobnak. A common question we hear, read, and think to ourselves as we are trying to fall asleep: “Can Randy Dobnak be a key piece of a successful playoff run?” I can cut to the chase and just say the answer is yes, but if you want to know why, go ahead and keep reading the words. Let’s start by looking at Dobnak’s surface-level stats: 28.1 IP – lots and lots of caveats about the small sample 7.31 K/9 – not inspiring, but we will need to take a look at his swinging strike rates 1.59 BB/9 – elite, but let’s see how often he’s really in the strike zone 1.59 ERA – wow, but a lot of this depends on the above 2.90 FIP – also wow 3.77 xFIP – still wow, but we will need to look into his batted ball tendencies because 0.32 HR/9 is the reason for the jump from his FIP to his xFIP. Okay, so we have a few things to dive into: Swinging Strike Rates, which are generally highly correlated to K/9 Zone Percentage, which is highly correlated to BB/9 Batted Ball Tendencies, which are going to be a bit more difficult to use to extrapolate, given the small sample. Getting hitters to swing and miss, and throwing strikes are generally skills the pitcher possesses (or does not), while the results – K/9, BB/9, HR/9, etc. Fluctuate due to randomness, umpire tendencies, opponents’ skill, etc. (esp in small samples). Here’s what we see for Dobnak on those plate discipline skills: 43.8% of his pitches were in the strike zone 12.9% of his pitches resulted in a swinging strike Putting those numbers into context, 61 pitchers qualified for the ERA title last season, so the median pitcher would be the one whose result was 31st among qualified starters. For swinging strike, it turns out that is a couple of familiar names: Jose Berrios and Homer Bailey at 10.8 percent. Looking at zone percentage, there is a three way tie among Jeff Smardzija, Mike Soroka, and Bailey again at 42.6 percent (a bit of a preview of the Bailey post. Hmm). By now you’ve surely noticed that Dobnak’s numbers were markedly above the median. In fact, his zone percentage of 43.8% would have tied him with Zach Eflin for 20th among all qualified starting pitchers, just a tick below Noah Syndergaard at 43.9 percent. His swinging strike rate of 12.9% puts him in a three way tie with Charlie Morton and Clayton Kershaw, who were tied for 14th among qualified starters. Obviously good company. It gets better. If you look at qualified starters who posted at least a 12.9% swinging strike rate combined with a 43.9% zone percentage – that rare combination of being in the zone and missing bats – here is the list you get for 2019: Gerrit Cole – 16.8%/45.2% Max Scherzer – 16.4%/45.6% Justin Verlander – 16.1%/45.2% Lucas Giolito – 15%/47.2% Yu Darvish – 13.4%/44.5% Charlie Morton – 12.9%/45.1% Just missed: Clayton Kershaw German Marquez Lance Lynn Noah Syndergaard Trevor Bauer Walker Buehler Does this mean Dobnak is in the company of these elite aces? Of course not. What it does suggest, though, is that his success was not a fluke. He displayed an elite combination of skills in missing bats (which generates strikeouts) and living in the strike zone (which prevents walks). This suggests that he has considerable upside. He also threw essentially a major league innings load last year – compiling more than 160 innings across 4 levels from High A to the majors. This suggests he’s capable of providing the Twins with volume as well as quality, something that is not always the case for prospect pitchers. There are reasons to be worried, though. The difference between Dobnak’s FIP and his xFIP was driven by an unsustainably low 5.3% HR/FB rate. The lowest HR/FB rate among qualified starters was 9.3%, and given Dobnak’s 42.5% hard hit rate, it’s safe to assume more of those fly balls will reach the seats going forward. That said, if he regresses to the mean in HR/9 and posts 150 innings with a sub-4.00 ERA, that’s obviously a serviceable starting pitcher. And, given that FIP and xFIP were driven by his 7.31 K/9, if those swinging strikes turn that into a 9.00+ K/9, he has considerable upside to deliver a lower ERA.

Two notes: First, 101 wins is not the team record. The Twins won 102 games in 1965. Second, when I look at Arraez, I'm not sure I see the star everyone seems to be sold on (at least everyone on Twitter and in the blogosphere). I see a guy who gets the bat on the ball, but without a lot of authority (35% hard hit rate, 24% FB-IFFB%)). He puts the ball on the ground (42% GB Rate) and last year he benefitted from a .355 BABIP. I guess I see him more as a solid placeholder until Lewis is ready to join the club and take over up the middle, not a reason to be excited about the team. All of that said, I'm definitely excited about the team, and I think everyone is sleeping on how good Rich Hill can be when he's healthy. If Berrios takes a step forward and Hill comes back healthy, that's a 1-2 that can compete with anyone in the league come October.

Generally, I think this list overvalues prospects and undervalues MLB contributors. In the preamble, you state that this is not intended to be the value these players hold in trade, but the value they have for the Twins. Given that the Twins are positioned to contend for a WS title right now, I don't see how prospects who are a year or two away from being every day MLB players are thought to be more valuable assets than established, high-upside MLB players. I'd move guys like Sano, Buxton, and Rosario up and some of the prospects down. Overall, I think you have the right guys on the list, just a difference of opinion regarding what constitutes "valuable" to a team that is positioned where the Twins are right now.