Matthew Taylor

On Friday afternoon, the Minnesota Twins agreed to trade all-star first baseman, Luis Arraez to the Miami Marlins in exchange for right-handed starting pitcher Pablo López and two prospects. While it’s sad to see Arraez go, the Twins’ front office deserves credit for making an excellent deal. Image courtesy of Jasen Vinlove-USA TODAY Sports After the Minnesota Twins signed Carlos Correa last week, it quickly became apparent that there was a logjam in the infield and that a move would have to be made. Logically the name that made the most sense for a trade was Luis Arraez. After rumors swirled for weeks about the mutual interest between the Twins and Marlins, the two teams finally came to an agreement. Luis Arraez is no-doubt an elite contact hitter, one of the best to ever put on a Twins uniform. Arraez’s elite contact skills helped to prop up a slumping offense all summer for the Twins in 2022. The Rod Carew comps, while lofty, are not exaggerated when it comes to Luis Arraez. He is a hitting savant who will always put together a good at-bat, and almost never strike out. Arraez isn’t without his flaws, though. While an elite contact hitter, Arraez lacks much of any power at all with his left-handed bat, which severely limits his overall upside as an elite player. Additionally, Arraez has consistently struggled with knee issues and has gone from an all-around utility player to a first baseman/designated hitter. Because of the flaws noted above, it has been a question of how much value Luis Arraez could bring back in a trade. Over the countless weeks of trade speculation between the Twins and Marlins, there was talk about López for Arraez being an even swap trade, or even that the Minnesota Twins might need to toss in prospects to make the deal work. As the trade details came in, though, the trade was much more favorable to the Twins than anyone imagined, with the Twins not throwing in prospects of their own, but instead receiving multiple prospects. Pablo López isn’t a perfect pitcher by any means. His stuff doesn’t look like the stuff of an ace, and he has tended to wear down in the second half of seasons, but at 26 years old, López will slot right into the top of the rotation with Sonny Gray and Tyler Mahle heading into 2023. A young (26 years old), affordable (set to earn $5.5M in 2023) and controllable (under team control through next season) starting pitcher is the exact kind of pitcher that Derek Falvey likes to go after (think Tyler Mahle). In addition to López, the Twins acquired a fringe top-100 prospect in José Salas and another prospect in Byron Chourio. (For more on Salas and Chourio, click here.) This trade was a slam dunk trade for the Twins’ front office for three reasons. First, they are doing what you always want to do in trades, selling high on their player. Luis Arraez just won the American League batting title, appeared in the most games in his career, and posted a career high in fWAR. There’s a good chance that Arraez’s value will never be higher than it is right now and cashing in on that value is really smart. Secondly, the Twins traded from a position of strength (infield bat) and acquired a position of need (starting pitcher). They managed to find a trade partner that had a weakness in the Twins’ area of strength and thus dealt from a position of power. With rumors swirling for weeks about the framework of an Arraez/López trade, it's easy to connect the dots and see that the Twins knew they were holding the better hand and could hold out for the Marlins to toss in more assets, like they ultimately ended up doing. Finally, the Twins made a slam dunk trade because they were able to recoup some of the value that they lost in 2022 when they traded away prospect depth in Chase Petty, Spencer Steer, and Christian Encarnacion-Strand, among others. With this deal, the Twins have added a B and C-level prospect to replenish the farm and give them more trade ammo for down the road. It’s impossible to write a Luis Arraez trade reaction piece without talking about how big of a bummer it is to lose Luis Arraez. While I write about baseball in an era of advanced metrics and numbers, it’s impossible for me to not get caught up in the emotion of baseball and no player on the Twins encompassed the emotion of baseball and love of the game quite like Luis Arraez. Luis was a true throwback player who was a joy to watch and had more fun than anyone and losing a player like that is hard. How would you assess the Arraez trade? Leave a comment and start the conversation! Be sure to keep coming back to Twins Daily for lots more trade reactions and content over the coming days. View full article

After looking back at some of the Twins longest long balls of 2022 yesterday, we go to the other side of the ball today and look at the best starts of the season by the Twins staff. Image courtesy of Brad Rempel - USA Today Sports Previously, we looked back on the five longest home runs by the Minnesota Twins in 2022. Now let’s count down the Twins’ top five pitching performances from the year. 5. Sonny Gray Game Score: 78 September 14 vs. Kansas City Royals 7 IP, 3 H, 1 BB, 0 ER, 8 SO (W) data:image/gif;base64,R0lGODlhAQABAPABAP///wAAACH5BAEKAAAALAAAAAABAAEAAAICRAEAOw== This September start from Sonny Gray was a big one as the Twins were still in the thick of a division race for the American League Central title. At the time of the game the Twins were five games back with a five game series against Cleveland yet to come, so this matchup against the Royals was a must-win. Gray took the rubber that day and from the jump wasn’t going to let the Twins lose. 4. Sonny Gray Game Score: 78 May 24 vs. Detroit Tigers 7 IP, 4 H, 1 BB, 0 ER, 10 SO (W) data:image/gif;base64,R0lGODlhAQABAPABAP///wAAACH5BAEKAAAALAAAAAABAAEAAAICRAEAOw== After a number of solid starts to begin the year with the Twins, Sonny Gray’s May 24 start against the Tigers was his first truly dominant start that validated the big offseason trade that brought Gray to the Twins. Gray showed stamina, control and putaway power in this start and gave the Twins the top-of-the-rotation presence that they lost when they traded away José Berríos in 2021. 3. Joe Ryan Game Score: 83 April 27 vs. Detroit Tigers 7 IP, 1 H, 1 BB, 0 ER, 9 SO (W) data:image/gif;base64,R0lGODlhAQABAPABAP///wAAACH5BAEKAAAALAAAAAABAAEAAAICRAEAOw== Everyone expected Joe Ryan to be a good pitcher for the Minnesota Twins in 2022, but this April 27 start from the right-hander showed that he has the ceiling to be a top-flight pitcher. Ryan was utterly dominant against the Detroit Tigers and rode that performance to a solid 2022 season in which he posted a 3.55 ERA across 27 starts. Ryan’s progression will be a big x-factor for the Twins in 2023. 2. Bailey Ober Game Score: 83 September 27 vs. Chicago White Sox 7 1/3 IP, 2 H, 1 BB, 0 ER, 10 SO (W) data:image/gif;base64,R0lGODlhAQABAPABAP///wAAACH5BAEKAAAALAAAAAABAAEAAAICRAEAOw== The best pitching performance in Bailey Ober’s young career, unfortunately, came in a meaningless September game between two teams that were already well out of the playoff picture. While the game was meaningless for the Twins and their playoff chances, a dominant start like Bailey Ober had in his penultimate appearance of the season is the type of outing that he can take into the offseason, build on, and hopefully use as a springboard for a great 2023 season. 1. Joe Ryan Game Score: 84 September 13 vs. Kansas City Royals 7 IP, 0 H, 2 BB, 0 ER, 9 SO (W) data:image/gif;base64,R0lGODlhAQABAPABAP///wAAACH5BAEKAAAALAAAAAABAAEAAAICRAEAOw== The most dominant pitching performance for the Minnesota Twins in 2022 will, oddly enough, not even be remembered for the pitching of Joe Ryan. Instead, the performance will be remembered for Rocco Baldelli deciding to pull Joe Ryan from the game in the 8th inning, rather than letting Ryan try to finish out the game. Heading into the 8th inning, Ryan was at 106 pitches. Many were frustrated that Ryan didn’t get a chance to accomplish history, but at such a high pitch count, Baldelli’s long-view motivations were certainly understandable. Which of these pitching performances will you most remember? Leave a comment below and start the conversation! View full article

While 2022 was not a year to remember for the Minnesota Twins, there were plenty of bombs that will be hard to forget. Let’s count down the five longest Minnesota Twins home runs of 2022. Image courtesy of © Bruce Kluckhohn-USA TODAY Sports 5. Byron Buxton 452 feet May 5, 2022 vs. Baltimore Orioles The number five entry on this list comes courtesy of the homegrown superstar, Byron Buxton. On a 3-0 count, Byron was given the green light with good reason, as he took Spenser Watkins deep to left center field to tie up the game against the Baltimore Orioles. The Twins loste the game, but by no fault of Byron Buxton. Teaser: this won’t be Byron Buxton’s only entry on this list. 4. Gary Sánchez 456 feet June 18 vs. Arizona Diamondbacks While Gary Sánchez had an underwhelming season overall, he proved that his calling hard of hitting missiles was spot-on. His first entry on this list came in Arizona when he took a 93-MPH fastball from Luke Weaver over the centerfield fence. The Sánchez home run was a part of a big 6-run inning for the Twins en route to a 11-1 thrashing of the Diamondbacks. 3. Carlos Correa 458 feet April 10 vs. Seattle Mariners Carlos Correa’s lone entry in our countdown was surely a memorable one, as it was his first home run in a Minnesota Twins uniform. The homer was a 113.4 MPH nuke that he took into the third deck. We’ll miss you, Carlos. (Editors note: Or maybe not?) 2. Byron Buxton 469 feet April 24 vs. Chicago White Sox While this home run from Buxton wasn’t the farthest home run of the year, it was definitely the most memorable. Down 4-3 in the bottom of the 10th inning against the rival White Sox, Buxton took superstar all-star closer Liam Hendriks deep to the left field home run porch to give the Minnesota Twins a walk-off 6-4 victory. On a 96-MPH fastball, Buxton turned on the pitch to the tune of a 111.8 MPH exit velocity and from the moment the ball hit the bat, everyone in Target Field knew the game was over. 1. Gary Sánchez 473 feet September 5 vs. New York Yankees Coming in first place for the longest home run for the Minnesota Twins in 2022 is Gary Sánchez, in his first ever game as a visitor in Yankee Stadium, when he took Jameson Taillon deep for an absolute bomb that tracked at 115.1 MPH and 473 (!!!) feet. Sánchez’s home run wasn’t only the longest for the Twins, but ranked as the eighth longest home run in all of baseball in 2022. Which of these home runs will stick with you as we turn the calendar from 2022 to 2023? Leave a comment below and start the conversation. View full article

Nearly all of the top free agents have been signed this offseason, none of them having landed with the Twins. But it’s not for a lack of good contracts. Let’s look at the five best contracts that the Twins missed out on this offseason. Image courtesy of © Brett Davis-USA TODAY Sports There have been some contracts this offseason that the Twins have wisely passed on because of the economics. Many times, free agent contracts are inherent overpays and for a team like the Minnesota Twins, they don’t all make sense. Players like Jacob deGrom, Justin Verlander, and Aaron Judge are great players but weren’t fits for the Twins. On the other hand, there were plenty of free agent signings this offseason that made me go, “The Twins should’ve definitely made that deal.” Here are my top 5, with the necessary caveat that the Twins might not have gotten these players by matching the exact contract that they signed for. The Twins may have needed to go 5% above what they were signed for in order to seal the deal, but either way these were contracts that the Twins missed out on (in no particular order). 1. Carlos Rodón - 6 years, $162M Heading into the offseason, many Twins fans put Rodón at the top of their free agency wish lists. Rodón represented the ace pitcher that the Twins have been searching for since Johan Santana, and because of previous health trouble, he might sign for a reasonable contract that even the Twins could afford. Sure enough, Rodón signed for a more-than-reasonable 6 year, $162M with an AAV of $27M. Certainly a fair price for an ace the caliber of Rodón who provided $49.6M in value for the White Sox in 2022. 2. Dansby Swanson - 7 years, $177M Following the opt-out of Carlos Correa, finding a replacement shortstop was the top priority for the Twins coming into the offseason. In addition, this was one of the deepest free agent shortstop classes that we had ever seen. With the high caliber of shortstops, though, came some extravagant contracts. For my money the best shortstop contract handed this offseason was the 7 year, $177M deal handed out to Dansby Swanson. While Trea Turner, Xander Bogaerts and Carlos Correa signed for double digit years, Swanson signed for a modest seven years at an AAV of just $25M. 3. Chris Bassitt - 3 years, $63M While Carlos Rodón represented an ace that the Twins could have signed in free agency, we do know that the Falvey/Levine regime doesn’t like to give long contracts to starting pitchers. Enter Chris Bassitt. Bassitt is a solid number two pitcher who has drastically improved in his age 32 and age 33 seasons the past two years. Bassitt signed for a reasonable $63M on a short-term deal of just three years. Something the Twins definitely should have been in on. 4. Willson Contreras - 5 years, $87.5M The biggest free agent signing that the Twins have made this offseason was for catcher Christian Vázquez on a three-year, $30M deal. While a reasonable signing, the deal that Willson Contreras signed with the St. Louis Cardinals was the best contract signed this offseason for a catcher. A $17.5M AAV for a 30-year-old catcher who is top-three at his position is more than reasonable. Contreras definitely was interested in signing with St. Louis, but with how low the payroll is, the Twins certainly could have gone above St. Louis’s offer and it still would have been a sound signing. 5. Noah Syndergaard - 1 year, $13M As the old adage goes, you can never have too many starting pitchers, and another solid signing for the Twins this offseason would have been a one year deal for Noah Syndergaard. Since his injuries, Syndergaard hasn’t been his dominant self, but he’s still just 30-years-old and he was an above-average pitcher last offseason. Syndergaard feels like a guy that the Twins could tweak and bring him back closer to his pre-injury status. And if not? It’s a one year deal and no harm done. Which of the above deals do you think the Twins most missed out on? Were there any other deals that weren’t mentioned? Leave a comment and start the conversation. View full article

Derek Falvey and company put all of their eggs in the Carlos Correa basket this offseason. After Correa opted to join the San Francisco Giants on Tuesday night, the Twins are now left scrambling with few options left to choose from. Image courtesy of © Jay Biggerstaff-USA TODAY Sports Since day one of the offseason, the Minnesota Twins made it abundantly clear that priorities one, two and three were bringing back Carlos Correa. With plenty of payroll room to spend, and a pre-existing relationship with Correa, this seemed like the unique situation where the Twins could spend with the big boys and sign a franchise cornerstone for a long time. Unfortunately for the Twins, it was reported late Tuesday night that Correa was signing with the San Francisco Giants for a 13-year, $350M contract. A contract that the Twins weren’t willing to match. According to our friend Dan Hayes, the Twins’ best offer for Correa was a 10-year, $285M offer. While missing out on Correa was a big bummer for everyone, it was also somewhat understandable. The San Francisco Giants play in one of the biggest markets in America and are used to routinely throwing around this kind of money. The issue for the Twins wasn’t missing out on Correa, it was that they put all of their eggs in the Carlos Correa basket. By zeroing in on Carlos Correa and waiting for him to make a decision, they missed out on nearly every other impact free agent. Shortstops like Xander Bogaerts and Trea Turner, impact pitchers like Chris Bassitt and Tyler Anderson, and big bats like Willson Contreras and José Abreu all signed elsewhere while the Twins were waiting on a decision from Correa. By waiting on Carlos Correa the Twins front office needed to be extremely confident in the power of the offer that they held. They needed to be so sure that the amount of money that they were willing to give to the Gold Glover was so great that he couldn’t possibly turn down his former team. Once Dan Hayes’s report came out that the Twins’ maximum offer was $285M, though, it made the front office’s handling of this offseason all the more troubling. $285M was never going to get a deal done for Carlos Correa. In 2021 Francisco Lindor signed for $341M. Being younger and more decorated than Lindor, and with Scott Boras as his agent, there was no way that Correa would be signing for any less than $300M and there was a good chance that he would exceed Lindor’s number. Then when Trea Turner signed for $300M (and being offered $342 by the Padres), that notion was only cemented more. Now that Carlos Correa has made his decision to sign with the Giants, the Twins are staring at a severely depleted free agency market with few impact players remaining. After Dansby Swanson and Carlos Rodón, no other free agents are projected to amass more than three wins above replacement in 2022. Outside of signing one of those two, the Twins can only acquire an impact player via trade. Dealing from a depleted farm system to improve a 78-win team that is worse than that 78-win team was on the last day of the 2022 season doesn't sound smart either. The Twins are now in an incredibly tough situation because of the front offices misreading of the Carlos Correa situation and they have nobody to blame but themselves. View full article

As a former “old friend” and fan favorite, Nelson Cruz has been a popular name thrown around for a potential reunion. Taking a deeper look, though, Twins fans should re-evaluate their desires to bring back the Boomstick. Image courtesy of Brad Mills-USA TODAY Sports It’s “big bat” week at Twins Daily and what bigger bat is there in free agency this offseason than Nelson Cruz? I mean, the guy has 459 career home runs and won a Silver Slugger in his two full seasons in Minnesota. So, should the Minnesota Twins pursue Cruz? Well, Nelson Cruz does fit the bill for some of what the Minnesota Twins need. First, the Twins might be in need of some locker room leadership in 2023. By all accounts, Carlos Correa was the locker room leader for the Twins in 2022, and if the Twins fail to retain him this offseason, that leadership void will need to be filled. Cruz was undoubtedly the veteran leader for the Twins in his years in Minnesota, and he could definitely step in and fill those shoes. Secondly, Cruz does fit the bill for some of what the Minnesota Twins need. The Twins need a right-handed bat as they were terrible against left-handed pitching in 2022, placing 11th in the American League with a .701 OPS against southpaws. While Cruz indeed swung a boomstick during his tenure in Minnesota, he is no longer the same player. Ever since the Twins traded Cruz away, his play has absolutely fallen off of a cliff. In the year-and-a-half since leaving Minnesota, Cruz has posted a lowly .675 OPS, with just 23 home runs across 745 plate appearances. Additionally, Cruz’s OPS, hard hit%, and wOBA have decreased in each of the past four seasons. Cruz will be entering into his age 42 year season. In the expansion era, only three players have qualified for the batting title at the age of 42. Father time is catching up with Cruz quickly, and the Twins would be wise to stay away. More importantly, the Twins really don’t have a strong need for a designated hitter. Last season, the Twins finished with the sixth highest bWAR in Major League Baseball from the designated hitter position. The biggest reasoning for that was that the two leaders in plate appearances for the Twins at designated hitter last season were Luis Arraez and Byron Buxton . The designated hitter was a great tool that the Twins were able to cycle through their oft-injured stars like Arraez and Buxton, and while they still suffered injuries, the DH spot was helpful in their ability to squeeze as many plate appearances out of certain players that they could. We all love Nelson Cruz. But the Minnesota Twins would be best served to stay away from him in free agency. Do you want the Twins to go after Nelson Cruz in free agency? Leave a comment and start the conversation! View full article

In hot stove season, we typically talk about free agents that the Minnesota Twins should go after. Here are three free-agent relievers that the Twins need to avoid at all costs. Image courtesy of Jeff Hanisch-USA TODAY Sports Craig Kimbrel In 2019, when Craig Kimbrel was a free agent entering the start of the season, many across Twins Territory were clamoring for the Twins to sign him. At the time he was a flame-throwing reliever, flirting with just about every potential record that existed for relievers. Ultimately the Twins steered clear though, and it appeared that the Twins avoided disaster. In 2019 and 2020, Kimbrel posted a 6.00 ERA in just 36 innings. Since 2020, though, Kimbrel’s numbers have improved. In the two seasons following that disastrous stretch, Kimbrel owns a 3.01 ERA with a 12.9 K/9. Kimbrel hasn’t convinced me, though. While his 3.75 ERA in 2022 is a solid number, that number was as high as 4.57 through mid-October. Additionally, Kimbrel is going to be 35 years old in May. Kimbrel has seen his fastball velocity dip in three consecutive seasons and his K/9 dipped by five from 2021 to 2022. Being the big name that he is, Kimbrel should get big money on the free agency market and the Twins would be prudent to steer clear. David Robertson David Robertson was the top reliever on the trade market at the 2022 trade deadline, and many thought that he would have been a good addition to the Twins at the time. Robertson ended up catching on with the Phillies, but now the Twins have a chance to sign the right-hander this offseason. They would be wise to not do that, though. While Robertson had a great season in 2022, posting a 2.40 ERA to go along with an 11.5 K/9, Robertson will be 38 years old when the 2023 season begins. Additionally, Robertson posted an unsustainable strand rate of 86%. Relief pitchers can be dominant for a long time and suddenly fade away. Given his age and the fortune that he sustained in 2022, the Twins would be best to find other options for the reliever position. Taylor Rogers Not a stranger to anyone in Minnesota, there has already been chatter of the southpaw returning to Minnesota in free agency this offseason. The Twins should avoid signing Taylor Rogers this offseason, though. There are certainly reasons to believe in a rebound season for Rogers in 2023. While Rogers had a rough 4.76 ERA, his underlying stats showed that he was better than that. Rogers posted a FIP of 3.31 and a K/9 of 11.8, right in line with his career K numbers. There are non-statistical reasons that the Twins should avoid Taylor Rogers. First of all, he will likely garner a multi-year contract in free agency. As a 31-year-old, Rogers will certainly be trying to secure his final multi-year deal of his career and will likely receive such a contract. The Twins’ front office has shown time and time again that they don’t want to sign relievers to multiple years, and that is definitely a prudent way to think. Additionally, the Twins really don’t have a need for a southpaw, especially one with the pedigree of Taylor Rogers. With Caleb Thielbar and Jovani Moran in hand, the Twins should be in good shape with left-handed relievers and would be better off attacking righties in free agency. Are there any other free-agent relievers you think the Twins should avoid? Leave a comment and start the conversation! View full article

After a second consecutive disappointing season, the Minnesota Twins front office has come under plenty of fire. There is one area in particular, though, where this front office has especially hurt the Twins’ chances. Image courtesy of Nick Turchiaro-USA TODAY Sports Matt Shoemaker. J.A. Happ. Alexander Colomé. Chris Archer. Dylan Bundy. Emilio Pagán. Each of these players are veteran pitchers who struggled mightily out of the gate in a Twins’ uniform, yet were given a leash long enough to pitch well into the Summer (in the cases of Matt Shoemaker and J.A. Happ) or for the entirety of the season (for the rest of the players listed). The Derek Falvey-led front office of the Minnesota Twins has repeatedly shown an affinity for signing aging middle-tier pitchers and a hesitancy to move on from those veteran pitchers, even when those pitchers are performing especially poorly. In 2021, this issue was seen all over the roster. J.A. Happ and Matt Shoemaker were giving up 5+ earned runs per start for months and Alexander Colomé was continuously trotted out to the mound to blow game after game. Rather than learning from those mistakes in 2021, Falvey’s propensity for sticking with veterans too long was even more prominent in 2022. Both Chris Archer and Dylan Bundy somehow made it through the entire season on the roster, despite both of them being terrible all season and each finishing with ERAs in the high 4’s. And then there’s Emilio Pagán. We all know of the struggles that Pagán had in 2022, yet he was continuously relied upon in big moments throughout the season, and the Twins suffered mightily as a result. One would think that after the Alexander Colomé disaster of 2021 that Falvey would have learned his lesson, but things only got worse this season, as Pagán finished third on the team in innings pitched despite having the 8th worst win probability added in the American League. The most common rebuttal that I’ve heard from Twins fans defending Derek Falvey for sticking with his veterans is that there were so many injuries that the Twins had no choice but to stick with these guys. The final months of the 2022 season for the Twins, though, proved otherwise. Over the final months of the season, the Minnesota Twins saw impressive debuts from rookies such as Louie Varland, Ronny Henriquez, and Simeon Woods Richardson. They also had other arms in the minors performing well, namely Evan Sisk, who posted a 2.00 ERA over 63 innings in Double-A and Triple-A. Not only were the Minnesota Twins trotting out pitchers day after day that were actively losing them baseball games, but they proved at the end of the year that they had plenty of talent in the minor leagues that could have performed better and also gotten valuable experience they needed as part of the long-term future of this ball club. Looking ahead to free agency of 2023, let’s hope that the Twins front office has finally learned from their mistakes with trusting middle-tier veteran pitchers. Time and time again, we have learned that veteran-ness does not automatically make you a better player and that by giving an opportunity to younger pitchers, you are unlocking opportunity and ceiling that simply isn’t there with the Dylan Bundy’s and Matt Shoemaker’s of the world. View full article