ReinMan

Greetings, Twins Territory. While watching the FSN broadcast of Tuesday's 10-inning instant classic between the Twins and Yankees, i.e. what was shaping up to be called the "Miguel Sano game" before quickly being title-hijacked as the "Aaron Hicks Revenge Game", I was dumbstruck to hear Dick Bremer call Blake Parker "the Twins' most consistent reliever lately". You've gotta be kidding me, I thought. Parker makes me nervous every time he's on the mound. And especially today, against the Yankees. (Followed by: 5-pitch walk, line-drive double, Monster Double, strikeout, Monster Double, yielding 4 ER in 1/3 of an inning, for an ERA of ... 108.00.) We all have "a feeling about a guy" from time to time, where we can't exactly quantify what we're feeling, but where something seems to be true. And therefore, with this blog, I endeavor to take those "feelings" (either mine, or yours, dear reader - feel free to submit them to me!) and provide evidence that either substantiates or refutes them. I'm not a sabermetrician by any means, but as a 23-year veteran math teacher, I'm pretty good at research, tracking down data, and mental calculations. So, without further ado, let's dig into whether "Blake Parker was the Twins' most consistent reliever" before he... Got Yanked: Dick Bremer backed up his statement by stating that Parker hadn't given up a run in his previous 5 outings. This is true; in fact, he'd only yielded 1 ER in his previous 10 outings! But let's dig a little deeper into those 5 pre-Yankees appearances: July 3 @OAK: Twins win 4-3 in 12 innings. Parker enters bottom 10 (clean), pitches the 10th & 11th. 2.0 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 2 BB, 3 K, 35 pitches, 20 strikes (57%). 10th: Walks Chapman on 5 pitches, walks Olson on 5 pitches. (Creates a mess: 1st & 2nd with 0 out in extra innings on the road. Leverage Index swells from 2.25 to 5.29.) Retires Davis on FC (1st & 3rd), retires Canha on FC (Chapman out at home), strikes out Laureano. (Cleans up the mess he created.) 11th: Yields 0-2 single to right to Grossman, immediately throws a WP allowing Grossman to advance to 2nd. (Creates a mess: runner on 2nd with 0 out. Leverage Index swells from 2.25 to 3.81.) Strikes out Barreto, strikes out Herrmann, gets Semien to foul out. (Cleans up the mess he created.) July 13 @CLE: Twins win 6-2. Parker enters with 2 outs bottom 7, and also pitches the 8th. With an inherited runner on 1st, gets Luplow to foul out to end the 7th. 8th: Strikes out Lindor, Mercado flies out, strikes out Santana. (Calms things down. Leverage Index goes from 1.83 to 0.36.) July 16 vs. NYM: Twins lose 3-2. Parker enters top 8 (clean), and also pitches to 3 batters in the 9th. 8th: McNeil flies out, Conforto lines a first-pitch single to right, walks Alonso. (Creates a mess: 1st & 2nd with 1 out. Leverage Index swells from 0.94 to 1.92.) Garver's passed ball allows runners to advance to 2nd & 3rd. Cano then grounds into the ridiculous double play at home and 3rd created by multiple Mets baserunning gaffes. (Rescued by Mets stupidity.) 9th: Ramos grounds out. Smith grounds out. Walks Frazier and is relieved by Magill. July 19 vs. OAK: Twins lose 5-3. Parker enters top 8 (clean). Strikes out Davis. Grossman lines a single to left. Herrmann lines into a 3-6 DP. (Gives up some hard contact, but faces only 3 batters.) July 20 vs. OAK: Twins lose 5-4. Parker enters top 8 (clean). Grossman flies out. Herrmann lines a single to center. Strikes out Profar. Semien grounds out. (Not bad. Leverage Index starts at 2.17 due to the Twins' narrow 4-3 lead at the time, but never exceeds 2.89.) SUMMARY: 5 outings: 1 clean (CLE), 2 other low-stress (OAK x2), and 2 where Parker created a big mess almost immediately and was lucky to escape with no runs allowed (I actually count this as 3, because it happened twice in the July 3 game). So on 3 out of 6 innings, Parker takes a clean situation and makes everybody nervous. I'm guessing Rocco and crew weren't interested in any more nail-biting induced by a veteran reliever who rarely pitches a simple, clean inning, and who has a 50% chance of filling the bases right after he enters the game. VERDICT: You've gotta be kidding me feeling is justified. "Twins Most Consistent Reliever" statement is not.