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  1. On the verge of a postseason birthed in a global epidemic, it’s only appropriate that we take a temperature reading of the Twins bats with three games to go. Keep your pants on boys, we’ll do this orally today. Read on to see who’s hot and who’s not.The concept of “hotness” is something that’s been widely written and debated about in sports, and naturally with hitting there’s always some amount of luck involved. However, it seems if a batter’s mechanics are in-whack, timing is down, and discipline is there, good results will generally follow. It’s all about the process. With that said we’ll be focusing on the results, specifically the last 14 days. We’ll start Rocco Baldelli-style, with the positive. Who’s Hot? 1) Byron Buxton – .300/.317/.850 (205 wRC+) The fact that the .850 at the end of Buxton’s slash line is his slugging percentage and not his OPS shows just how hot Buxton’s been. In the last 14 days he’s jacked seven home runs and knocked in 12, while accumulating 0.8 fWAR. Is his swing at everything, no walk approach sustainable? Highly unlikely. But as long as the dingers continue, the walks can wait. 2) Eddie Rosario – .293/.370/.585, (157 wRC+) Eddie’s refined approach might actually be a good model for Buxton going into next season. It took a while and has been kind of a quiet, controlled fire, but it certainly looks like Rosario’s patience is paying off. It would be really fun to see how the results would play out over a full season (Rosario is on a 39 home run and 117 RBI pace for 162 games) but continuing his hot-streak throughout the playoffs works as well. 3) Josh Donaldson – .205/.354/.436, (115 wRC+) Donaldson’s triple slash isn’t as impressive as our next two hitters, but he’s playing every day, taking plenty of walks, and has been even hotter in the last seven days (.278/.435/.611). He’s presumably healthy and finally looking like the player the Twins thought they were getting when Donaldson signed his hundred-million dollar contract. 4) Jake Cave – .300/.333/.800 (194 wRC+) Cave’s great game against the Tigers in the series finale (two home runs) certainly boosted his 14-day triple slash, and he even threw in one of his patented hold-your-breath-cause-if-he misses-it-we-might-be-watching-an-inside-the-park-home run catches to boot. His aggressiveness is up there with Buxton’s, and fortunately for the Twins, his slash-line has been as well (relative to our tiny 14-game sample of course). Cave should provide value as a pinch hitter-and-runner in the postseason. 5) Ryan Jeffers - .294/.368/.647 (171 wRC+) Jeffers’ somewhat surprising prowess with the bat and good defense, combined with Mitch Garver’s nightmare season, puts the Twins in a bit of a catching conundrum come October. Do they go with the more experienced Garver, or the red-hot Jeffers? Should the Twins extend the postseason past the wild-card round, they’ll both be needed, but don’t be surprised if Minnesota favors the hot hand (or mitt, if you will). Who’s Not? Now for the not so fun part. Garver’s time on the IL keeps him off this list, and although he hit a home run in his first game back, he also struck out three times. It’s more than fair to say he’s cold. We’ll give him an un-honorable mention. 1) Miguel Sanó – .095/.095/.310 (-7 wRC+) Sanó’s no stranger to streakiness, and unfortunately for the Twins, he’s currently entrenched in the icy variety. He’s also no stranger to striking out. When he’s going well the misses are palatable, but Sano’s struck out at a 50% clip over the last 14 games. Hopefully he’ll get it turned around over the final three games – he’s also no stranger to hot streaks. 2) Jorge Polanco – .171/.295/.200 (39 wRC+) His improved defense has made his lack of success with the bat a bit easier to take, but it’s hard to classify Polanco's 2020 as anything less than a disappointment. The rabbit ball undoubtedly contributed to Polanco’s power outbreak last year, but even with some expected regression, his .360 slugging percentage on the year resembles the light-hitting shortstops of a by-gone era. 3) Nelson Cruz – .172/.250/.310, (42 wRC+) Cruz’s 14-day sample is even smaller (20 PA) due to sitting out the last four games with a sore knee/hamstring. The injury and Cruz’s age are more alarming than the numbers. The Twins are (justifiably) playing it safe with the 40-year-old slugger. Cruz has obviously been amazing over the last two seasons, but things can go south quickly at his age and even with his great numbers there are some potential signs of a coming regression. Overall, he’s swinging more, specifically on pitches outside of the strike zone and less on pitches in the zone, which is a trend in aging hitters. He’s also got a career high K-rate and a .368 BABIP, potentially pointing to some fortunate results in his batted balls. The sample has been small and the changes not all that pronounced, but certainly something worth considering as Cruz enters free-agency at the season’s conclusion. But I digress. Let’s just hope that Cruz and his understudy can heat up in time for a Bomba-filled October. MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email Click here to view the article
  2. The concept of “hotness” is something that’s been widely written and debated about in sports, and naturally with hitting there’s always some amount of luck involved. However, it seems if a batter’s mechanics are in-whack, timing is down, and discipline is there, good results will generally follow. It’s all about the process. With that said we’ll be focusing on the results, specifically the last 14 days. We’ll start Rocco Baldelli-style, with the positive. Who’s Hot? 1) Byron Buxton – .300/.317/.850 (205 wRC+) The fact that the .850 at the end of Buxton’s slash line is his slugging percentage and not his OPS shows just how hot Buxton’s been. In the last 14 days he’s jacked seven home runs and knocked in 12, while accumulating 0.8 fWAR. Is his swing at everything, no walk approach sustainable? Highly unlikely. But as long as the dingers continue, the walks can wait. 2) Eddie Rosario – .293/.370/.585, (157 wRC+) Eddie’s refined approach might actually be a good model for Buxton going into next season. It took a while and has been kind of a quiet, controlled fire, but it certainly looks like Rosario’s patience is paying off. It would be really fun to see how the results would play out over a full season (Rosario is on a 39 home run and 117 RBI pace for 162 games) but continuing his hot-streak throughout the playoffs works as well. 3) Josh Donaldson – .205/.354/.436, (115 wRC+) Donaldson’s triple slash isn’t as impressive as our next two hitters, but he’s playing every day, taking plenty of walks, and has been even hotter in the last seven days (.278/.435/.611). He’s presumably healthy and finally looking like the player the Twins thought they were getting when Donaldson signed his hundred-million dollar contract. 4) Jake Cave – .300/.333/.800 (194 wRC+) Cave’s great game against the Tigers in the series finale (two home runs) certainly boosted his 14-day triple slash, and he even threw in one of his patented hold-your-breath-cause-if-he misses-it-we-might-be-watching-an-inside-the-park-home run catches to boot. His aggressiveness is up there with Buxton’s, and fortunately for the Twins, his slash-line has been as well (relative to our tiny 14-game sample of course). Cave should provide value as a pinch hitter-and-runner in the postseason. 5) Ryan Jeffers - .294/.368/.647 (171 wRC+) Jeffers’ somewhat surprising prowess with the bat and good defense, combined with Mitch Garver’s nightmare season, puts the Twins in a bit of a catching conundrum come October. Do they go with the more experienced Garver, or the red-hot Jeffers? Should the Twins extend the postseason past the wild-card round, they’ll both be needed, but don’t be surprised if Minnesota favors the hot hand (or mitt, if you will). Who’s Not? Now for the not so fun part. Garver’s time on the IL keeps him off this list, and although he hit a home run in his first game back, he also struck out three times. It’s more than fair to say he’s cold. We’ll give him an un-honorable mention. 1) Miguel Sanó – .095/.095/.310 (-7 wRC+) Sanó’s no stranger to streakiness, and unfortunately for the Twins, he’s currently entrenched in the icy variety. He’s also no stranger to striking out. When he’s going well the misses are palatable, but Sano’s struck out at a 50% clip over the last 14 games. Hopefully he’ll get it turned around over the final three games – he’s also no stranger to hot streaks. 2) Jorge Polanco – .171/.295/.200 (39 wRC+) His improved defense has made his lack of success with the bat a bit easier to take, but it’s hard to classify Polanco's 2020 as anything less than a disappointment. The rabbit ball undoubtedly contributed to Polanco’s power outbreak last year, but even with some expected regression, his .360 slugging percentage on the year resembles the light-hitting shortstops of a by-gone era. 3) Nelson Cruz – .172/.250/.310, (42 wRC+) Cruz’s 14-day sample is even smaller (20 PA) due to sitting out the last four games with a sore knee/hamstring. The injury and Cruz’s age are more alarming than the numbers. The Twins are (justifiably) playing it safe with the 40-year-old slugger. Cruz has obviously been amazing over the last two seasons, but things can go south quickly at his age and even with his great numbers there are some potential signs of a coming regression. Overall, he’s swinging more, specifically on pitches outside of the strike zone and less on pitches in the zone, which is a trend in aging hitters. He’s also got a career high K-rate and a .368 BABIP, potentially pointing to some fortunate results in his batted balls. The sample has been small and the changes not all that pronounced, but certainly something worth considering as Cruz enters free-agency at the season’s conclusion. But I digress. Let’s just hope that Cruz and his understudy can heat up in time for a Bomba-filled October. MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email
  3. Entering the postseason one of the things that will be interesting to watch is how the catcher situation shakes out. Coming into the year it would have seemed all but certain that Mitch Garver would be the number one backstop barring injury, but his struggles combined with rookie Ryan Jeffers’ prowess on both sides of the ball put Garver’s status in doubt.After a season for the ages in 2019, it’s hard to paint Garver’s 2020 as anything but a complete disaster. Granted it’s a small sample and Garver’s been banged up (including a recent stint on the IL), but after slashing a Piazza-like .273/.365/.630 (155 wRC+) last season, Garver’s .148/.243/.197 (25 wRC+) likely has Drew Butera blushing. He’s striking out at a 42.9% clip, and hasn’t turned things around since coming off the IL (1-for-9 against the Cubs with 66.7% K-rate). Garver’s obviously not as bad as his disastrous shortened season would suggest, but he’s running out of time to turn things around and rookie Ryan Jeffers has made a compelling case to get the majority of the starts come October. It makes sense to get Garver as many reps as possible to try to get right for the remainder of the regular season, but beyond that it’s an open question. Since receiving his call-up, Jeffers has been somewhat of a revelation on both sides of the ball. He’s slashed a really good .283/.365/.478 (132 wRC+) in 23 games, and although he’s swinging and missing a bit more than he did in the minor leagues (32.7 K% vs. 19.2% at AA in 2019), his bat basically hasn’t skipped a beat (he hit.287/.374/.483 at AA). For the time being, Jeffers definitely looks to be a better bet with the bat than either Garver or backup Alex Avila (who’s only plus skill at this point in this career is his propensity for taking walks). If we turn to the other side of the ball, Jeffers also seems to be the preferred defensive option. He had the reputation of being an elite pitch framer in the minors and thus far that has shaken out in the big leagues as well. His Statcast numbers put him in the 87th percentile for framing (compared to the 34th percentile for Garver and 28th percentile for Avila), confirming what the eye-test already told us. Garver has worked hard to improve his framing and defense, but Jeffers brings a defensive skill-set that Garver will never approach. Considering Garver’s struggles and the limited amount of season left, it makes sense to lean heavily on Jeffers in the postseason. When Garver was out, Jeffers was able to handle a fairly heavy workload (especially relative to the rest-heavy Twins) and his pitch framing skills and potent bat make him the obvious choice for the present. As we’ve seen, the Twins could use all the help they can get scoring runs, and Jeffers has hit. Although it’s early, I do think it’s fair to question the future of the catching position in Minnesota. The Twins are in a great position with two talented backstops who are under team control well into the future. With the emphasis the Twins (and growingly the rest of the MLB and sports world as a whole) place on rest and recovery, there’s undoubtably a path forward for both, but it wouldn’t be too surprising to see something like a 60/40 spit in Jeffers’ favor. Jeffers is just 23-years-old, while Garver is four months shy of turning 30, an age where it is not uncommon to see MLB bats begin to decline. Jeffers recently snuck his way into FanGraphs top-100 prospect list at number 97, so it’s not only the Twins who are high on Jeffers, and he’s already hit a ball 112.9 mph (for context, Garver’s career high max exit velo is 111.0 mph). As the better defender, Jeffers will also have the higher floor going forward, making offensive slumps more palatable. 2021 feels a bit reminiscent of 2019 when Garver was the newcomer who looked all but sure to steal reps from veteran Jason Castro as the season wore on. Of course, Garver had an astounding season that Jeffers is unlikely to ever match, but if we’re being honest, Garver’s not going to either. How quickly things can change, as it’s now Garver who has the target on his back, and Jeffers whose future shines bright. Here’s hoping for a binary star. Click here to view the article
  4. After a season for the ages in 2019, it’s hard to paint Garver’s 2020 as anything but a complete disaster. Granted it’s a small sample and Garver’s been banged up (including a recent stint on the IL), but after slashing a Piazza-like .273/.365/.630 (155 wRC+) last season, Garver’s .148/.243/.197 (25 wRC+) likely has Drew Butera blushing. He’s striking out at a 42.9% clip, and hasn’t turned things around since coming off the IL (1-for-9 against the Cubs with 66.7% K-rate). Garver’s obviously not as bad as his disastrous shortened season would suggest, but he’s running out of time to turn things around and rookie Ryan Jeffers has made a compelling case to get the majority of the starts come October. It makes sense to get Garver as many reps as possible to try to get right for the remainder of the regular season, but beyond that it’s an open question. Since receiving his call-up, Jeffers has been somewhat of a revelation on both sides of the ball. He’s slashed a really good .283/.365/.478 (132 wRC+) in 23 games, and although he’s swinging and missing a bit more than he did in the minor leagues (32.7 K% vs. 19.2% at AA in 2019), his bat basically hasn’t skipped a beat (he hit.287/.374/.483 at AA). For the time being, Jeffers definitely looks to be a better bet with the bat than either Garver or backup Alex Avila (who’s only plus skill at this point in this career is his propensity for taking walks). If we turn to the other side of the ball, Jeffers also seems to be the preferred defensive option. He had the reputation of being an elite pitch framer in the minors and thus far that has shaken out in the big leagues as well. His Statcast numbers put him in the 87th percentile for framing (compared to the 34th percentile for Garver and 28th percentile for Avila), confirming what the eye-test already told us. Garver has worked hard to improve his framing and defense, but Jeffers brings a defensive skill-set that Garver will never approach. Considering Garver’s struggles and the limited amount of season left, it makes sense to lean heavily on Jeffers in the postseason. When Garver was out, Jeffers was able to handle a fairly heavy workload (especially relative to the rest-heavy Twins) and his pitch framing skills and potent bat make him the obvious choice for the present. As we’ve seen, the Twins could use all the help they can get scoring runs, and Jeffers has hit. Although it’s early, I do think it’s fair to question the future of the catching position in Minnesota. The Twins are in a great position with two talented backstops who are under team control well into the future. With the emphasis the Twins (and growingly the rest of the MLB and sports world as a whole) place on rest and recovery, there’s undoubtably a path forward for both, but it wouldn’t be too surprising to see something like a 60/40 spit in Jeffers’ favor. Jeffers is just 23-years-old, while Garver is four months shy of turning 30, an age where it is not uncommon to see MLB bats begin to decline. Jeffers recently snuck his way into FanGraphs top-100 prospect list at number 97, so it’s not only the Twins who are high on Jeffers, and he’s already hit a ball 112.9 mph (for context, Garver’s career high max exit velo is 111.0 mph). As the better defender, Jeffers will also have the higher floor going forward, making offensive slumps more palatable. 2021 feels a bit reminiscent of 2019 when Garver was the newcomer who looked all but sure to steal reps from veteran Jason Castro as the season wore on. Of course, Garver had an astounding season that Jeffers is unlikely to ever match, but if we’re being honest, Garver’s not going to either. How quickly things can change, as it’s now Garver who has the target on his back, and Jeffers whose future shines bright. Here’s hoping for a binary star.
  5. Eddie Rosario came into the 2020 season acknowledging that his overly-aggressive approach needed to be toned down a bit, as he aimed for more walks and a higher OBP and OPS. The walks have been there from the get go this year, but the overall results haven’t changed that much. Of late however, things look like they might be taking a turn for the better.Wednesday night’s matchup against Lucas Giolito was a nice little microcosm of what a more patient Eddie could do against one of the game’s best pitchers. In his first plate appearance Rosario took a first pitch called strike on a fastball and then swung through a changeup to fall behind 0-2. He was able to lay off a high fastball (not at all an easy feat for our Eddie) and then foul off two consecutive changeups. Finally, he took the fourth changeup he saw over the fence to put the Twins up 1-0. In his second go at Giolito, Rosario was able to coax a five-pitch walk without ever swinging the bat and scored on a Byron Buxton home run. In his third-and-final chance against Chicago’s ace, Rosario worked a full count but ended up swinging through a changeup. All in all, three pretty impressive plate appearances against a great pitcher. Part of Eddie’s more patient approach has been swinging the bat less. Thus far in 2019, Rosario has swung at 52.4% of pitches compared to 57.1% for his career. This is still over the MLB average (46.5%), but a significant reduction nonetheless for the free-swinging Rosario. A big part of the reduced rate came from not swinging at first pitches. Rosario’s first pitch swing rate is down to 32.8% from 41.9% last season. And Rosario’s getting less strikes than ever as only 40.1% of pitches that he sees are in the strike zone (compared to an MLB-average of 48.4%), so taking less hacks makes sense. The good news is that Rosario is walking at an 8.8% rate, more than double his abysmal 3.7% in 2019. And he’s still not striking out much (14.6%). Despite the patience, Rosario actually got off to a poor start, and if we dig a little deeper it’s easy to see why. While the walks were there he wasn’t doing much damage with the bat (though he’s damaged the Twins plenty with defense and base running – maybe that can be this offseason’s focus!). The problem is that Eddie is still chasing at a high clip (40%, basically his career average), while swinging at significantly less pitches in the zone (71.1%, compared to 80.8 in 2019). Rosario’s contact rates have held steady, but he’s getting less pitches in the zone and swinging at fewer of them. With a new approach it’s reasonable to expect some time and adjustments before it pays dividends, and we may be beginning to see a better version of Rosario. He’s added a little more aggressiveness to his approach as the season has worn on and he could be approaching a happy medium. Rosario has stopped taking as many pitches in September and the results have been impressive, as he’s slashing .300/.352/.580 for the month with four home runs in 54 plate appearances. He’s been laying off the hard stuff (he’s hitting only .182 against four-seamers) and crushing off-speed stuff (.727 slugging vs. changeups). With the increased swings, the walk rate has come down to 7.4% for the month, which seems like a decent place for Rosario to be considering his overall results have been much better (his BABIP has also been closer to normal this month at .282, while it was all the way down to .227 in July and August). Download attachment: Is Eddie Rosario Swing chart.png Even as he’s figuring his way around the new approach, Rosario’s offensive numbers on the year have been pretty respectable with a 108 wRC+, and if his small September sample is any indication of things to come, Rosario might have another level that we’re beginning to see. Facing free-agency for the first time after the 2021 season, Rosario should be extra motivated next year, and it makes sense for Minnesota to keep him around for one more year with Nelson Cruz hitting the market, and the trio of Alex Kirilloff, Trevor Larnach, and Brent Rooker not having the benefit of a minor league season. Rosario’s a polarizing figure who can be infuriating at times, but perhaps his patience at the plate can carry over to the base paths and outfield, and give us an even better Eddie in 2021. If not, at least one of the aforementioned trio would be more than willing to take his place. MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email Click here to view the article
  6. Wednesday night’s matchup against Lucas Giolito was a nice little microcosm of what a more patient Eddie could do against one of the game’s best pitchers. In his first plate appearance Rosario took a first pitch called strike on a fastball and then swung through a changeup to fall behind 0-2. He was able to lay off a high fastball (not at all an easy feat for our Eddie) and then foul off two consecutive changeups. Finally, he took the fourth changeup he saw over the fence to put the Twins up 1-0. In his second go at Giolito, Rosario was able to coax a five-pitch walk without ever swinging the bat and scored on a Byron Buxton home run. In his third-and-final chance against Chicago’s ace, Rosario worked a full count but ended up swinging through a changeup. All in all, three pretty impressive plate appearances against a great pitcher. Part of Eddie’s more patient approach has been swinging the bat less. Thus far in 2019, Rosario has swung at 52.4% of pitches compared to 57.1% for his career. This is still over the MLB average (46.5%), but a significant reduction nonetheless for the free-swinging Rosario. A big part of the reduced rate came from not swinging at first pitches. Rosario’s first pitch swing rate is down to 32.8% from 41.9% last season. And Rosario’s getting less strikes than ever as only 40.1% of pitches that he sees are in the strike zone (compared to an MLB-average of 48.4%), so taking less hacks makes sense. The good news is that Rosario is walking at an 8.8% rate, more than double his abysmal 3.7% in 2019. And he’s still not striking out much (14.6%). Despite the patience, Rosario actually got off to a poor start, and if we dig a little deeper it’s easy to see why. While the walks were there he wasn’t doing much damage with the bat (though he’s damaged the Twins plenty with defense and base running – maybe that can be this offseason’s focus!). The problem is that Eddie is still chasing at a high clip (40%, basically his career average), while swinging at significantly less pitches in the zone (71.1%, compared to 80.8 in 2019). Rosario’s contact rates have held steady, but he’s getting less pitches in the zone and swinging at fewer of them. With a new approach it’s reasonable to expect some time and adjustments before it pays dividends, and we may be beginning to see a better version of Rosario. He’s added a little more aggressiveness to his approach as the season has worn on and he could be approaching a happy medium. Rosario has stopped taking as many pitches in September and the results have been impressive, as he’s slashing .300/.352/.580 for the month with four home runs in 54 plate appearances. He’s been laying off the hard stuff (he’s hitting only .182 against four-seamers) and crushing off-speed stuff (.727 slugging vs. changeups). With the increased swings, the walk rate has come down to 7.4% for the month, which seems like a decent place for Rosario to be considering his overall results have been much better (his BABIP has also been closer to normal this month at .282, while it was all the way down to .227 in July and August). Even as he’s figuring his way around the new approach, Rosario’s offensive numbers on the year have been pretty respectable with a 108 wRC+, and if his small September sample is any indication of things to come, Rosario might have another level that we’re beginning to see. Facing free-agency for the first time after the 2021 season, Rosario should be extra motivated next year, and it makes sense for Minnesota to keep him around for one more year with Nelson Cruz hitting the market, and the trio of Alex Kirilloff, Trevor Larnach, and Brent Rooker not having the benefit of a minor league season. Rosario’s a polarizing figure who can be infuriating at times, but perhaps his patience at the plate can carry over to the base paths and outfield, and give us an even better Eddie in 2021. If not, at least one of the aforementioned trio would be more than willing to take his place. MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email
  7. 2019 felt like a launching pad for Max Kepler. He belted a career-high 36 home runs in just 134 games. Sure the batting average was still low, but his .252 represented a career best. He finished with a 121 wRC+, meaning he was 21% better than the average MLB hitter and played great defense. At age-26 the best seemed yet to come. But has it already passed?While the Twins are undoubtably excited to have Kepler back from his 10-day IL stint after suffering a groin injury, his (albeit brief) 2020 campaign has looked less a leap into superstardom and more like pre-2019 breakout Kepler. His walk and strikeout percentages have remained very good, but his overall numbers have slid back to his career norms. Although he’s hit seven home runs, Kepler’s slashing just .221/.322/.420 for a 102 wRC+, meaning his bat is league average and pretty much exactly where it was in 2018. After seemingly figuring out lefties last season (.264/.372/.552), Kepler’s looked lost in 2020 (.111/.195/.139). Naturally, we’re dealing with a relatively small sample size in 2020, but his surface numbers aren’t the only thing going against Kepler’s breakout year. Last year Kepler increased his aggressiveness at the plate and pulled the ball more than ever. After raising his pull percentage by over 10% in 2019 (up to 53.4%), Kepler is back down to 44.3% in 2020. His swing rate was all the way up to 49.3% in 2019, whereas this year it’s at 42.9% (similar to his 2018 rate of 42.6%) despite seeing slightly more pitches in the strike zone. He’s also stopped going aggressively after the first pitch, with his 1st pitch swing percent going down to 29.4% after ascending all the way to 40.4% in 2019. Download attachment: Have We Already Seen...Kepler...Swing percent chart pic.png So Kepler’s swinging less and pulling the ball less, but he’s also doing less damage when he does make contact. Intuitively this makes sense, as his power comes from pulling the ball, and by not swinging as often at first pitches he’s presumably missing out on some cookies (he’s hitting .368 on first pitches). A quick glance at his Statcast page shows the dreaded blue in exit velocity (88.1, down from 89.7), hard hit percent (36.1%, down from 42.1%), and barrel percent (6.2%, down from 8.9%). Like everything else, the Statcast numbers have regressed to pre-2019 Kepler. Download attachment: Have We Already Seen...Kepler...statcastpic.png While we may have dreamed of Kepler ascending from 2019 to a Christian Yelich-like plateau, in reality last year was probably the pinnacle of what we’ll see from Max. If he’s able to return to his 2019-self, Kepler will be extremely valuable to the Twins due to his team-friendly contract, but even if 2019 was an outlier and Kepler really is approximately a league average bat, his plus defense in right (and ability to fill-in for Byron Buxton in center), cheap cost, and relatively young age should allow him to remain a fixture in Minnesota’s lineup for years to come. And maybe facing Lucas Giolito and the Chicago White Sox once again will remind Kepler of the damage he can do against that first pitch. MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email Click here to view the article
  8. While the Twins are undoubtably excited to have Kepler back from his 10-day IL stint after suffering a groin injury, his (albeit brief) 2020 campaign has looked less a leap into superstardom and more like pre-2019 breakout Kepler. His walk and strikeout percentages have remained very good, but his overall numbers have slid back to his career norms. Although he’s hit seven home runs, Kepler’s slashing just .221/.322/.420 for a 102 wRC+, meaning his bat is league average and pretty much exactly where it was in 2018. After seemingly figuring out lefties last season (.264/.372/.552), Kepler’s looked lost in 2020 (.111/.195/.139). Naturally, we’re dealing with a relatively small sample size in 2020, but his surface numbers aren’t the only thing going against Kepler’s breakout year. Last year Kepler increased his aggressiveness at the plate and pulled the ball more than ever. After raising his pull percentage by over 10% in 2019 (up to 53.4%), Kepler is back down to 44.3% in 2020. His swing rate was all the way up to 49.3% in 2019, whereas this year it’s at 42.9% (similar to his 2018 rate of 42.6%) despite seeing slightly more pitches in the strike zone. He’s also stopped going aggressively after the first pitch, with his 1st pitch swing percent going down to 29.4% after ascending all the way to 40.4% in 2019. So Kepler’s swinging less and pulling the ball less, but he’s also doing less damage when he does make contact. Intuitively this makes sense, as his power comes from pulling the ball, and by not swinging as often at first pitches he’s presumably missing out on some cookies (he’s hitting .368 on first pitches). A quick glance at his Statcast page shows the dreaded blue in exit velocity (88.1, down from 89.7), hard hit percent (36.1%, down from 42.1%), and barrel percent (6.2%, down from 8.9%). Like everything else, the Statcast numbers have regressed to pre-2019 Kepler. While we may have dreamed of Kepler ascending from 2019 to a Christian Yelich-like plateau, in reality last year was probably the pinnacle of what we’ll see from Max. If he’s able to return to his 2019-self, Kepler will be extremely valuable to the Twins due to his team-friendly contract, but even if 2019 was an outlier and Kepler really is approximately a league average bat, his plus defense in right (and ability to fill-in for Byron Buxton in center), cheap cost, and relatively young age should allow him to remain a fixture in Minnesota’s lineup for years to come. And maybe facing Lucas Giolito and the Chicago White Sox once again will remind Kepler of the damage he can do against that first pitch. MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email
  9. Who would have thought coming into the year that Thielbar would be getting the 7th in a tie game (and picking up the "W") with Wisler collecting the save?!
  10. Cruz didn't pick up any homers or RBI tonight but his three hits bring the average all the way up to .328. Unfortunately, Tim Anderson's three hits brought his BA up to .345 though. But the Twins won!
  11. The sky might very well be falling, but Nelson Cruz is piercing it with dingers.The 40-year-old slugger continues to hold off Father Time, somehow managing to best his legendary 2019 season. He’s got a legitimate chance at the first Triple Crown since Miguel Cabrera did it in 2012. Today, we’ll size up the competition. Let’s start with home runs: AL Home Run Leaderboard 1) 13 – Nelson Cruz 2) 12 – Teoscar Hernandez, Jose Abreu, Mike Trout, Luke Voit Of the three Triple Crown categories, Cruz seems best positioned to take the home run crown. For one, he’s currently leading the field, but has several worthy competitors nipping at his heels, most noticeably Mike Trout. Cruz also has six more games against Detroit, who give up the second-most home runs in the AL at 1.66 HR/9. He also only has to face Cleveland’s very good pitching staff three more times and gets six more chances against the White Sox, who have pitched well but have never been able to contain Cruz (notwithstanding Cruz’s three K performance vs. the Sox yesterday). Next, Runs Batted In (RBI). This one’s a bit trickier as the offense has struggled mightily and Cruz can only knock himself in so many times. However, he’s done alright: AL RBI Leaderboard 1) 32 – Mike Trout, Jose Abreu 3) 29 – Nelson Cruz, Kyle Tucker, Anthony Santander Having Trout at your heels is bad, but chasing him is even worse (only Trout’s .268 batting average is keeping him out of the Triple Crown conversation). If Cruz continues to hit the bombas, the RBI will follow. It would, however, help if his teammates heated up a bit and gave Cruz more base runners to knock in. Cruz has done what he can to help the cause by hitting .524 with runners in scoring position. Finally, we come to batting average. With a slugger like Cruz, hitting for average isn’t exactly the first thing that comes to mind, as his .278 career batting average attests. However, he hit .311 last year and a hot streak in such a short season would quickly bring the average up. AL Batting Average Leaderboard 1) .330 – Tim Anderson 2) .328 – Kyle Lewis 3) .321 – Hanser Alberto 4) .315 – Jose Abreu 5) .313 – David Fletcher 6) .311 – Nelson Cruz With Tim Anderson winning the Batting Title last season (.335) and having such a large lead, he seems a sure bet to foil Cruz’s chances. But not so fast. First off, although Anderson’s combination of speed and improved ability to hit the ball hard (90.4 mph average exit velocity) make him a certified BABIP monster, his .387 BABIP is pushing the limits of what’s possible. He’s also only played 25 games and accumulated just 113 plate appearances, so a cold stretch would really bring the average down. Next up is Kyle Lewis, who’s .407 BABIP is even higher than Anderson. Plus, he’s a rookie who is exceeding expectations, so some regression seems probable. Then there’s Hanser Alberto, who is greatly outperforming his career average (.284), not hitting the ball hard at all (82.9 EV, 21.6 HardHit %), and has an expected batting average of .271. Surprisingly, Chicago’s Jose Abreu is also making a strong bid for the Triple Crown. Abreu did get 123 RBI last year, is in a stacked lineup, and has a career .293 batting average, but has topped 30 home runs just four times in his career and has never gotten above 36. In his age 33-season, he’ll be one to keep an eye on. Although the offense as a whole has ranked somewhere between uninspiring and execrable, and the odds of Cruz getting a Triple Crown are long, he’s been an absolute joy to watch. I’m sure he’d take a World Series over the Triple Crown, but maybe the latter can lead to the former. After all, they’re not mutually exclusive. I’m saying he has a chance. MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email Click here to view the article
  12. The 40-year-old slugger continues to hold off Father Time, somehow managing to best his legendary 2019 season. He’s got a legitimate chance at the first Triple Crown since Miguel Cabrera did it in 2012. Today, we’ll size up the competition. Let’s start with home runs: AL Home Run Leaderboard 1) 13 – Nelson Cruz 2) 12 – Teoscar Hernandez, Jose Abreu, Mike Trout, Luke Voit Of the three Triple Crown categories, Cruz seems best positioned to take the home run crown. For one, he’s currently leading the field, but has several worthy competitors nipping at his heels, most noticeably Mike Trout. Cruz also has six more games against Detroit, who give up the second-most home runs in the AL at 1.66 HR/9. He also only has to face Cleveland’s very good pitching staff three more times and gets six more chances against the White Sox, who have pitched well but have never been able to contain Cruz (notwithstanding Cruz’s three K performance vs. the Sox yesterday). Next, Runs Batted In (RBI). This one’s a bit trickier as the offense has struggled mightily and Cruz can only knock himself in so many times. However, he’s done alright: AL RBI Leaderboard 1) 32 – Mike Trout, Jose Abreu 3) 29 – Nelson Cruz, Kyle Tucker, Anthony Santander Having Trout at your heels is bad, but chasing him is even worse (only Trout’s .268 batting average is keeping him out of the Triple Crown conversation). If Cruz continues to hit the bombas, the RBI will follow. It would, however, help if his teammates heated up a bit and gave Cruz more base runners to knock in. Cruz has done what he can to help the cause by hitting .524 with runners in scoring position. Finally, we come to batting average. With a slugger like Cruz, hitting for average isn’t exactly the first thing that comes to mind, as his .278 career batting average attests. However, he hit .311 last year and a hot streak in such a short season would quickly bring the average up. AL Batting Average Leaderboard 1) .330 – Tim Anderson 2) .328 – Kyle Lewis 3) .321 – Hanser Alberto 4) .315 – Jose Abreu 5) .313 – David Fletcher 6) .311 – Nelson Cruz With Tim Anderson winning the Batting Title last season (.335) and having such a large lead, he seems a sure bet to foil Cruz’s chances. But not so fast. First off, although Anderson’s combination of speed and improved ability to hit the ball hard (90.4 mph average exit velocity) make him a certified BABIP monster, his .387 BABIP is pushing the limits of what’s possible. He’s also only played 25 games and accumulated just 113 plate appearances, so a cold stretch would really bring the average down. Next up is Kyle Lewis, who’s .407 BABIP is even higher than Anderson. Plus, he’s a rookie who is exceeding expectations, so some regression seems probable. Then there’s Hanser Alberto, who is greatly outperforming his career average (.284), not hitting the ball hard at all (82.9 EV, 21.6 HardHit %), and has an expected batting average of .271. Surprisingly, Chicago’s Jose Abreu is also making a strong bid for the Triple Crown. Abreu did get 123 RBI last year, is in a stacked lineup, and has a career .293 batting average, but has topped 30 home runs just four times in his career and has never gotten above 36. In his age 33-season, he’ll be one to keep an eye on. Although the offense as a whole has ranked somewhere between uninspiring and execrable, and the odds of Cruz getting a Triple Crown are long, he’s been an absolute joy to watch. I’m sure he’d take a World Series over the Triple Crown, but maybe the latter can lead to the former. After all, they’re not mutually exclusive. I’m saying he has a chance. MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email
  13. Twins Daily’s Ted Schwerzler recently made a compelling case for why the Twins should avoid Lance Lynn this trade deadline. Today, I’ll attempt to do the opposite.Lynn’s first go-round with Minnesota obviously didn’t go well. He failed to find the free agent deal he was hoping for and ended up signing a last minute deal with the Twins, missing much of spring training. The results weren’t there and he wasn’t exactly heralded as a great clubhouse presence, ultimately ending his season with Minnesota prematurely as he was dealt to the New York Yankees at the trade deadline. Not many Twins fans were lamenting over the loss of Lynn, including yours truly, but things could be different this time. Lynn Is Really Good First off, Lynn is a different pitcher than he was in his time with the Twins. Prior to coming to Minnesota, he was very good, never recording an ERA of over four in his six years in St. Louis. Since his one bad year (2018), he’s been even better. Last year Lynn pitched 208.1 IP with a 3.67 ERA and 3.13 FIP. He finished fifth in AL Cy Young voting, third in FanGraphs WAR (6.8), and second in Baseball Reference WAR (7.5). He also missed plenty of bats, striking out 10.6 per nine. This year he’s been even better. In seven starts Lynn is 4-and-0 with a miniscule ERA of 1.59 and 0.86 WHIP. He’s continued to get the Ks with 9.93 per nine, has gone six or more innings in all but one start, has yet to give up more than two earned runs in a start, and has even went the distance in Coors Field of all places (only giving up two hits and one earned run). It’s only fair to point out that he’s probably not quite as good as that last paragraph makes him sound. While his ERA is otherworldly, his FIP brings him back down to earth a bit, albeit at a very good 3.38. His BABIP of just .189 is going to come up and he is also currently stranding 93.9% of base runners. However, even with some regression, Lynn is still really good. So, what’s changed? The Pitch Mix Lance Lynn has always thrown a lot of fastballs, and that’s never going to change. However, not all fastballs are equal. In 2018 Lynn threw his four-seamer 44.9% of the time, his sinker at 32.5%, and his cutter at 11.6%. Fast forward to the present, and the four-seamer usage is up to 57.8%, while the cutter has ascended to 20.5%, and the sinker is down to 13.2% Lynn also throws a curve (7.9%) and very rarely a changeup. More of the four-seamer is a good thing as Lynn is in the 90th percentile for spin and averages 94.0 mph. Batters are hitting just .191 against it, and his expected batting average against the four-seamer is at just .193. The cutter has been just as good with a .091 BA against and a very good xBA of, once again, .193. The sinker is the worst of the three, and is appropriately being utilized the least, but it’s still a good pitch (.136 BA, .256 xBA). The three pitches are able to play off each other as they all look the same coming out of Lynn’s hand. He hides the ball well, and tunneling the pitches leaves batters guessing as to where the fastball will end up. It’s Different This Time Things change, people change, circumstances change. The circumstances were not ideal for Lynn in his first run with Minnesota, but things would be quite different this time. First off, Lynn would go from a struggling Texas Rangers ball club to a first-rate contender in the Twins. Secondly, Minnesota has a different manager and pitching coach in place since Lynn was last here. Rocco Baldelli is very much a player’s manager and Wes Johnson is quickly becoming one of the most highly regarded pitching coaches in all of baseball. Plus, the fact that the Twins would actively seek out Lynn and give up prospect capital for him might make Lynn feel more wanted than getting signed to a last minute below-market deal. Lynn Would Solidify the Rotation for 2021 Another advantage to acquiring Lynn would be the fact that he has another year left on his current contract. There’s a lot of risk in trading for a rental as additional COVID outbreaks could put the season in jeopardy, so the extra year makes Lynn much more appealing (and costly). With Kenta Maeda, the Twins have already traded for a great pitcher on a team-friendly contract, and Lynn is no different. He is owed just $9.3 million for the 2021 season, an absolute bargain for a starter of his pedigree. Lynn would slide in nicely with Maeda, José Berríos, Michael Pineda, and Randy Dobnak. Outside of Trevor Bauer, the free-agent pitching market will be pretty thin, so why not take care of that final rotation spot now? What do you think of Lance Lynn? What would you give up for him (if anything)? Does anyone else see a resemblance to the in Lynn’s current incarnation? MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email Click here to view the article
  14. Lynn’s first go-round with Minnesota obviously didn’t go well. He failed to find the free agent deal he was hoping for and ended up signing a last minute deal with the Twins, missing much of spring training. The results weren’t there and he wasn’t exactly heralded as a great clubhouse presence, ultimately ending his season with Minnesota prematurely as he was dealt to the New York Yankees at the trade deadline. Not many Twins fans were lamenting over the loss of Lynn, including yours truly, but things could be different this time. Lynn Is Really Good First off, Lynn is a different pitcher than he was in his time with the Twins. Prior to coming to Minnesota, he was very good, never recording an ERA of over four in his six years in St. Louis. Since his one bad year (2018), he’s been even better. Last year Lynn pitched 208.1 IP with a 3.67 ERA and 3.13 FIP. He finished fifth in AL Cy Young voting, third in FanGraphs WAR (6.8), and second in Baseball Reference WAR (7.5). He also missed plenty of bats, striking out 10.6 per nine. This year he’s been even better. In seven starts Lynn is 4-and-0 with a miniscule ERA of 1.59 and 0.86 WHIP. He’s continued to get the Ks with 9.93 per nine, has gone six or more innings in all but one start, has yet to give up more than two earned runs in a start, and has even went the distance in Coors Field of all places (only giving up two hits and one earned run). It’s only fair to point out that he’s probably not quite as good as that last paragraph makes him sound. While his ERA is otherworldly, his FIP brings him back down to earth a bit, albeit at a very good 3.38. His BABIP of just .189 is going to come up and he is also currently stranding 93.9% of base runners. However, even with some regression, Lynn is still really good. So, what’s changed? The Pitch Mix Lance Lynn has always thrown a lot of fastballs, and that’s never going to change. However, not all fastballs are equal. In 2018 Lynn threw his four-seamer 44.9% of the time, his sinker at 32.5%, and his cutter at 11.6%. Fast forward to the present, and the four-seamer usage is up to 57.8%, while the cutter has ascended to 20.5%, and the sinker is down to 13.2% Lynn also throws a curve (7.9%) and very rarely a changeup. More of the four-seamer is a good thing as Lynn is in the 90th percentile for spin and averages 94.0 mph. Batters are hitting just .191 against it, and his expected batting average against the four-seamer is at just .193. The cutter has been just as good with a .091 BA against and a very good xBA of, once again, .193. The sinker is the worst of the three, and is appropriately being utilized the least, but it’s still a good pitch (.136 BA, .256 xBA). The three pitches are able to play off each other as they all look the same coming out of Lynn’s hand. He hides the ball well, and tunneling the pitches leaves batters guessing as to where the fastball will end up. It’s Different This Time Things change, people change, circumstances change. The circumstances were not ideal for Lynn in his first run with Minnesota, but things would be quite different this time. First off, Lynn would go from a struggling Texas Rangers ball club to a first-rate contender in the Twins. Secondly, Minnesota has a different manager and pitching coach in place since Lynn was last here. Rocco Baldelli is very much a player’s manager and Wes Johnson is quickly becoming one of the most highly regarded pitching coaches in all of baseball. Plus, the fact that the Twins would actively seek out Lynn and give up prospect capital for him might make Lynn feel more wanted than getting signed to a last minute below-market deal. Lynn Would Solidify the Rotation for 2021 Another advantage to acquiring Lynn would be the fact that he has another year left on his current contract. There’s a lot of risk in trading for a rental as additional COVID outbreaks could put the season in jeopardy, so the extra year makes Lynn much more appealing (and costly). With Kenta Maeda, the Twins have already traded for a great pitcher on a team-friendly contract, and Lynn is no different. He is owed just $9.3 million for the 2021 season, an absolute bargain for a starter of his pedigree. Lynn would slide in nicely with Maeda, José Berríos, Michael Pineda, and Randy Dobnak. Outside of Trevor Bauer, the free-agent pitching market will be pretty thin, so why not take care of that final rotation spot now? What do you think of Lance Lynn? What would you give up for him (if anything)? Does anyone else see a resemblance to the in Lynn’s current incarnation?MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email
  15. Injuries have wreaked havoc on Minnesota’s rotation, as Rich Hill, Jake Odorizzi, and Homer Bailey have all spent time on the IL so far. The Twins aren’t unique in this respect, as injuries have been prevalent throughout baseball, but let’s take a look at how the rotation could shake out for the remainder of 2020.I’m going to order this as a traditional one-through-five rotation, starting with the “Twins Ace” at number one and working our way down to number five. Of course, the injuries and upcoming return of Michael Pineda make this exercise a bit tricky, but here it goes. 1) Kenta Maeda – 36.2 IP, 1.80 ERA/2.59 FIP, 0.71 WHIP, 29.4 K%/5.1 BB%, 23.6 HardHit% Maeda is the obvious choice as staff ace as he has been dominant since joining the Twins. He’s ultimately been one of the best pitchers in all of baseball, has taken a no-hitter into the ninth inning against the Milwaukee Brewers, and has looked good in all of his starts. He’s been the only pitcher on the staff to consistently go deep in his starts, pitching less than six innings just twice – in his first start when he wasn’t fully stretched out and in his most recent start which followed his 115 pitch near no-hitter (and he threw five really good innings in both of those starts!). 2) José Berríos – 30.1 IP, 4.75 ERA/4.18 FIP, 1.38 WHIP, 25.2 K%/10.7 BB%, 32.5 HardHit% Having Berríos slated ahead of Randy Dobnak will surely annoy some, but it was his last start that gives me confidence in placing Berríos second. After struggling mightily with control in his first five starts and walking 13 batters, Berríos racked up nine strike outs in six innings in his latest start against Milwaukee with only one walk (and gave up just one hit). The unusual ramp up to the season may have thrown Berríos off, but he’s throwing harder than ever (his four-seamer is averaging 94.5 mph compared to 93.1 mph last year) and has enough of a history of past success (and cursed Augusts) to believe he’s turned the corner. 3) Randy Dobnak – 30.1 IP, 1.78 ERA/4.08 FIP, 1.02 WHIP, 13.5 K%/5.9 BB%, 36.5 HardHit% The fact that I feel guilty for having Dobnak this low on a Twins rotation that also includes Odorizzi, Hill, Pineda, and Bailey, shows how good Dobnak has been. Injuries have given him an opportunity to continue the amazing run that began last year, and he’s more than made the most of it. Sure, Dobnak doesn’t miss many bats and gives up some hard contact, but his 62.4% ground ball rate more than makes up for that. What keeps him behind Berríos is a combination of not pitching deep into games (he’s only made it through six innings once) and having a profile that should regress. His FIP is in the same neighborhood as Berríos, despite the latter’s early struggles, and his Left-On-Base percentage is currently at an unsustainable 93.3%. His BABIP is also extremely low at .226. Even with some regression, Dobnak is a tremendous asset to the rotation and much more than just a great story. 4) Michael Pineda – Has yet to pitch in 2020. One can quibble about the order of the top-three, but they pretty clearly belong at the top. It gets a little murkier from here on out. So much so, that our number four is a pitcher who has yet to throw a pitch in 2020. However, Michael Pineda will return at the end of the month, and the way he was pitching prior to his suspension at the end of last year merits a place ahead of either Hill or Odorizzi, who have both struggled. In his first season back since having both Tommy John-and-knee surgery, Pineda started a bit slowly, but really took off in the second-half. He pitched to a 3.04 ERA (3.55 FIP) and had a 20.2% K-BB% in 53.1 IP and looked like the Twins best starter before being suspended. Hopefully, he can continue his second-half form without too much rust when he rejoins the rotation next week. 5) Rich Hill – 7.2 IP, 4.70 ERA/5.63 FIP, 1.30 WHIP, 9.4 K%/12.5 BB%, 32.0 HardHit% The number five spot could be labeled the “whoever’s healthy enough to pitch” slot (or alternately, the bullpen game). With Homer Bailey out for the foreseeable future and Jake Odorizzi on the IL for the second time with a chest contusion after taking a comebacker, it’s currently Rich Hill who fits the bill. Hill has had his own health problems with an IL stint for shoulder fatigue, but it’s his lack of control which might be the most frightening thing for the time being. Hill is coming off of modified Tommy John surgery and has missed very few bats while walking more than he’s struck out. Although he’s now 40-years-old, he was still pitching well last season, so hopefully he’s shaking off the rust and pitching a great game against Cleveland as these words are being published. What do you think? How would you order your ideal rotation? Please leave your comments below! MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email Click here to view the article
  16. I’m going to order this as a traditional one-through-five rotation, starting with the “Twins Ace” at number one and working our way down to number five. Of course, the injuries and upcoming return of Michael Pineda make this exercise a bit tricky, but here it goes. 1) Kenta Maeda – 36.2 IP, 1.80 ERA/2.59 FIP, 0.71 WHIP, 29.4 K%/5.1 BB%, 23.6 HardHit% Maeda is the obvious choice as staff ace as he has been dominant since joining the Twins. He’s ultimately been one of the best pitchers in all of baseball, has taken a no-hitter into the ninth inning against the Milwaukee Brewers, and has looked good in all of his starts. He’s been the only pitcher on the staff to consistently go deep in his starts, pitching less than six innings just twice – in his first start when he wasn’t fully stretched out and in his most recent start which followed his 115 pitch near no-hitter (and he threw five really good innings in both of those starts!). 2) José Berríos – 30.1 IP, 4.75 ERA/4.18 FIP, 1.38 WHIP, 25.2 K%/10.7 BB%, 32.5 HardHit% Having Berríos slated ahead of Randy Dobnak will surely annoy some, but it was his last start that gives me confidence in placing Berríos second. After struggling mightily with control in his first five starts and walking 13 batters, Berríos racked up nine strike outs in six innings in his latest start against Milwaukee with only one walk (and gave up just one hit). The unusual ramp up to the season may have thrown Berríos off, but he’s throwing harder than ever (his four-seamer is averaging 94.5 mph compared to 93.1 mph last year) and has enough of a history of past success (and cursed Augusts) to believe he’s turned the corner. 3) Randy Dobnak – 30.1 IP, 1.78 ERA/4.08 FIP, 1.02 WHIP, 13.5 K%/5.9 BB%, 36.5 HardHit% The fact that I feel guilty for having Dobnak this low on a Twins rotation that also includes Odorizzi, Hill, Pineda, and Bailey, shows how good Dobnak has been. Injuries have given him an opportunity to continue the amazing run that began last year, and he’s more than made the most of it. Sure, Dobnak doesn’t miss many bats and gives up some hard contact, but his 62.4% ground ball rate more than makes up for that. What keeps him behind Berríos is a combination of not pitching deep into games (he’s only made it through six innings once) and having a profile that should regress. His FIP is in the same neighborhood as Berríos, despite the latter’s early struggles, and his Left-On-Base percentage is currently at an unsustainable 93.3%. His BABIP is also extremely low at .226. Even with some regression, Dobnak is a tremendous asset to the rotation and much more than just a great story. 4) Michael Pineda – Has yet to pitch in 2020. One can quibble about the order of the top-three, but they pretty clearly belong at the top. It gets a little murkier from here on out. So much so, that our number four is a pitcher who has yet to throw a pitch in 2020. However, Michael Pineda will return at the end of the month, and the way he was pitching prior to his suspension at the end of last year merits a place ahead of either Hill or Odorizzi, who have both struggled. In his first season back since having both Tommy John-and-knee surgery, Pineda started a bit slowly, but really took off in the second-half. He pitched to a 3.04 ERA (3.55 FIP) and had a 20.2% K-BB% in 53.1 IP and looked like the Twins best starter before being suspended. Hopefully, he can continue his second-half form without too much rust when he rejoins the rotation next week. 5) Rich Hill – 7.2 IP, 4.70 ERA/5.63 FIP, 1.30 WHIP, 9.4 K%/12.5 BB%, 32.0 HardHit% The number five spot could be labeled the “whoever’s healthy enough to pitch” slot (or alternately, the bullpen game). With Homer Bailey out for the foreseeable future and Jake Odorizzi on the IL for the second time with a chest contusion after taking a comebacker, it’s currently Rich Hill who fits the bill. Hill has had his own health problems with an IL stint for shoulder fatigue, but it’s his lack of control which might be the most frightening thing for the time being. Hill is coming off of modified Tommy John surgery and has missed very few bats while walking more than he’s struck out. Although he’s now 40-years-old, he was still pitching well last season, so hopefully he’s shaking off the rust and pitching a great game against Cleveland as these words are being published. What do you think? How would you order your ideal rotation? Please leave your comments below! MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email
  17. There have been two interesting trends with fastballs that have continued in 2020. First, pitchers are throwing harder than ever, especially with more flame-throwing relievers entering games earlier and earlier. But paradoxically, pitchers are throwing fewer fastballs. The Twins are at the forefront of the latter.Minnesota pitching coach Wes Johnson is famous for getting as much velocity as possible out of his pitchers; but outside of Jorge Alcala, the Twins don’t have a lot of high-velo arms. The old cliché is that a pitcher must establish the fastball to succeed, but most hitters feast on heaters, and while it seems rather obvious, it certainly makes sense for pitchers to throw their best pitches with greater frequency, which more often than not, isn’t a fastball. Alas, this is exactly what the Twins have done. Minnesota’s pitchers rank 27th overall in fastball velocity, with an average of 92.3 mph, and have adjusted by throwing fastballs just 41.9% of the time, which is the third-lowest rate in the MLB. Instead, opposing hitters are seeing a steady dose of sliders and changeups: Download attachment: Minnesota pitchers have spurned mlb rank chart pic.png This chart might be the most logical thing I’ve seen in 2020. As a group Twins pitchers have the best sliders in baseball, and lo and behold, they also throw them with the greatest frequency. The changeups are pretty good too, so they’re thrown at the fifth-highest rate. And while the Twins are greatly limiting the number of fastballs (down from 51.6% in 2019), the 19th overall value ranking implies that they’re performing better than the velocity would suggest. There are a few possibilities for why Twins fastballs have performed better than the velocity suggests. Generally speaking, faster is better (duh), but more goes into a heater than just velocity. Rising four-seam fastballs are in-vogue, and in order to get the so-called rise, a pitcher needs a good spin rate. But not all spin is created equal, so what you’re really going for is spin efficiency (basically how well the spin is turned into movement) and this is another area the Twins excel in. Eno Saris of the Athletic wrote a great piece about spin efficiency, which included a list of the MLB’s top spinners, and Minnesota places 5th in average active fastball spin. So while the Twins don’t throw the hardest fastballs, they get the most out of their limited velocity. Another possibility is that the increase in breaking and off speed pitches is making it harder for hitters to sit on fastballs and do damage to them when they do see one. For evidence of this, look no further than Kenta Maeda. He has been unbelievable by altering his pitch usage and throwing more sliders and split-changeups to both sided hitters. In the past, it was Maeda’s fastball that got him into trouble, but with all the sliders and splitters mixed in, hitters have been unable to square up either his four-seamer (27% whiff, .094 BA) or his less used sinker (25% whiff, .000 BA). With some Twins relievers like the slider-heavy Sergio Romo (17.4% fastball) and Matt Wisler (20.8%), it’s not all that surprising that they’re not throwing many fastballs (although they’re taking it to another level), but there have been others as well. Take a look at this list of Twins pitchers that have significantly reduced their overall fastball usage: Download attachment: Minnesota pitcher have spurned pitcher chart pic.png An interesting list as it includes a few starters, a reliever, and a swingman. Devin Smeltzer is a great example of a pitcher who doesn’t have the fastball velocity to survive on a heater-heavy mix. His four-seamer is averaging a ghastly 87.2 mph, but he’s been using the kitchen sink approach (35.1% changeup, 22.5% slider, 10.5% curve) and it’s worked. He got roughed up in his first appearance, but he’s got a 2.92 ERA and 1.03 WHIP in 9.2 innings since, and he looked filthy in his most recent outing against Kansas City. Tyler Duffey is an entirely different case, as he has a good four-seamer with relatively decent velocity (92.8 mph), but he’s gone all in on the breaking ball as well. He’s throwing his curve 62.5% of the time and getting a ton of whiffs (46.2%) while transforming himself into one of the best relievers in all of baseball. Finally, we have Randy Dobnak, who has been right up there with Maeda as one of Minnesota’s most trustworthy starters. As a ground ball machine, Dobnak isn’t going away from his sinker anytime soon (he’s actually throwing it more – 44.8% this year compared to 36.5% in 2019, it’s the four-seamer he’s using much less often), but his increased slider usage (up to 32.7%) is getting plenty of whiffs (34.7%) and weak contact (.088 BA, 82.8 EV). It’s easy to say that having pitchers throw their best pitches more frequently is common sense, but baseball is a stubborn and conservative game that is hesitant to change more often than not. Fastball usage is down across baseball, but it’s refreshing to see that Wes Johnson and Falvey and Co. are leading the pack rather than waiting around and finally changing after other teams are off to the next thing. The times they are a-changin’. MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email Click here to view the article
  18. There have been two interesting trends with fastballs that have continued in 2020. First, pitchers are throwing harder than ever, especially with more flame-throwing relievers entering games earlier and earlier. But paradoxically, pitchers are throwing fewer fastballs. The Twins are at the forefront of the latter.Minnesota pitching coach Wes Johnson is famous for getting as much velocity as possible out of his pitchers; but outside of Jorge Alcala, the Twins don’t have a lot of high-velo arms. The old cliché is that a pitcher must establish the fastball to succeed, but most hitters feast on heaters, and while it seems rather obvious, it certainly makes sense for pitchers to throw their best pitches with greater frequency, which more often than not, isn’t a fastball. Alas, this is exactly what the Twins have done. Minnesota’s pitchers rank 27th overall in fastball velocity, with an average of 92.3 mph, and have adjusted by throwing fastballs just 41.9% of the time, which is the third-lowest rate in the MLB. Instead, opposing hitters are seeing a steady dose of sliders and changeups: Download attachment: Minnesota pitchers have spurned mlb rank chart pic.png This chart might be the most logical thing I’ve seen in 2020. As a group Twins pitchers have the best sliders in baseball, and lo and behold, they also throw them with the greatest frequency. The changeups are pretty good too, so they’re thrown at the fifth-highest rate. And while the Twins are greatly limiting the number of fastballs (down from 51.6% in 2019), the 19th overall value ranking implies that they’re performing better than the velocity would suggest. There are a few possibilities for why Twins fastballs have performed better than the velocity suggests. Generally speaking, faster is better (duh), but more goes into a heater than just velocity. Rising four-seam fastballs are in-vogue, and in order to get the so-called rise, a pitcher needs a good spin rate. But not all spin is created equal, so what you’re really going for is spin efficiency (basically how well the spin is turned into movement) and this is another area the Twins excel in. Eno Saris of the Athletic wrote a great piece about spin efficiency, which included a list of the MLB’s top spinners, and Minnesota places 5th in average active fastball spin. So while the Twins don’t throw the hardest fastballs, they get the most out of their limited velocity. Another possibility is that the increase in breaking and off speed pitches is making it harder for hitters to sit on fastballs and do damage to them when they do see one. For evidence of this, look no further than Kenta Maeda. He has been unbelievable by altering his pitch usage and throwing more sliders and split-changeups to both sided hitters. In the past, it was Maeda’s fastball that got him into trouble, but with all the sliders and splitters mixed in, hitters have been unable to square up either his four-seamer (27% whiff, .094 BA) or his less used sinker (25% whiff, .000 BA). With some Twins relievers like the slider-heavy Sergio Romo (17.4% fastball) and Matt Wisler (20.8%), it’s not all that surprising that they’re not throwing many fastballs (although they’re taking it to another level), but there have been others as well. Take a look at this list of Twins pitchers that have significantly reduced their overall fastball usage: Download attachment: Minnesota pitcher have spurned pitcher chart pic.png An interesting list as it includes a few starters, a reliever, and a swingman. Devin Smeltzer is a great example of a pitcher who doesn’t have the fastball velocity to survive on a heater-heavy mix. His four-seamer is averaging a ghastly 87.2 mph, but he’s been using the kitchen sink approach (35.1% changeup, 22.5% slider, 10.5% curve) and it’s worked. He got roughed up in his first appearance, but he’s got a 2.92 ERA and 1.03 WHIP in 9.2 innings since, and he looked filthy in his most recent outing against Kansas City. Tyler Duffey is an entirely different case, as he has a good four-seamer with relatively decent velocity (92.8 mph), but he’s gone all in on the breaking ball as well. He’s throwing his curve 62.5% of the time and getting a ton of whiffs (46.2%) while transforming himself into one of the best relievers in all of baseball. Finally, we have Randy Dobnak, who has been right up there with Maeda as one of Minnesota’s most trustworthy starters. As a ground ball machine, Dobnak isn’t going away from his sinker anytime soon (he’s actually throwing it more – 44.8% this year compared to 36.5% in 2019, it’s the four-seamer he’s using much less often), but his increased slider usage (up to 32.7%) is getting plenty of whiffs (34.7%) and weak contact (.088 BA, 82.8 EV). It’s easy to say that having pitchers throw their best pitches more frequently is common sense, but baseball is a stubborn and conservative game that is hesitant to change more often than not. Fastball usage is down across baseball, but it’s refreshing to see that Wes Johnson and Falvey and Co. are leading the pack rather than waiting around and finally changing after other teams are off to the next thing. The times they are a-changin’. MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email Click here to view the article
  19. Minnesota pitching coach Wes Johnson is famous for getting as much velocity as possible out of his pitchers; but outside of Jorge Alcala, the Twins don’t have a lot of high-velo arms. The old cliché is that a pitcher must establish the fastball to succeed, but most hitters feast on heaters, and while it seems rather obvious, it certainly makes sense for pitchers to throw their best pitches with greater frequency, which more often than not, isn’t a fastball. Alas, this is exactly what the Twins have done. Minnesota’s pitchers rank 27th overall in fastball velocity, with an average of 92.3 mph, and have adjusted by throwing fastballs just 41.9% of the time, which is the third-lowest rate in the MLB. Instead, opposing hitters are seeing a steady dose of sliders and changeups: This chart might be the most logical thing I’ve seen in 2020. As a group Twins pitchers have the best sliders in baseball, and lo and behold, they also throw them with the greatest frequency. The changeups are pretty good too, so they’re thrown at the fifth-highest rate. And while the Twins are greatly limiting the number of fastballs (down from 51.6% in 2019), the 19th overall value ranking implies that they’re performing better than the velocity would suggest. There are a few possibilities for why Twins fastballs have performed better than the velocity suggests. Generally speaking, faster is better (duh), but more goes into a heater than just velocity. Rising four-seam fastballs are in-vogue, and in order to get the so-called rise, a pitcher needs a good spin rate. But not all spin is created equal, so what you’re really going for is spin efficiency (basically how well the spin is turned into movement) and this is another area the Twins excel in. Eno Saris of the Athletic wrote a great piece about spin efficiency, which included a list of the MLB’s top spinners, and Minnesota places 5th in average active fastball spin. So while the Twins don’t throw the hardest fastballs, they get the most out of their limited velocity. Another possibility is that the increase in breaking and off speed pitches is making it harder for hitters to sit on fastballs and do damage to them when they do see one. For evidence of this, look no further than Kenta Maeda. He has been unbelievable by altering his pitch usage and throwing more sliders and split-changeups to both sided hitters. In the past, it was Maeda’s fastball that got him into trouble, but with all the sliders and splitters mixed in, hitters have been unable to square up either his four-seamer (27% whiff, .094 BA) or his less used sinker (25% whiff, .000 BA). With some Twins relievers like the slider-heavy Sergio Romo (17.4% fastball) and Matt Wisler (20.8%), it’s not all that surprising that they’re not throwing many fastballs (although they’re taking it to another level), but there have been others as well. Take a look at this list of Twins pitchers that have significantly reduced their overall fastball usage: An interesting list as it includes a few starters, a reliever, and a swingman. Devin Smeltzer is a great example of a pitcher who doesn’t have the fastball velocity to survive on a heater-heavy mix. His four-seamer is averaging a ghastly 87.2 mph, but he’s been using the kitchen sink approach (35.1% changeup, 22.5% slider, 10.5% curve) and it’s worked. He got roughed up in his first appearance, but he’s got a 2.92 ERA and 1.03 WHIP in 9.2 innings since, and he looked filthy in his most recent outing against Kansas City. Tyler Duffey is an entirely different case, as he has a good four-seamer with relatively decent velocity (92.8 mph), but he’s gone all in on the breaking ball as well. He’s throwing his curve 62.5% of the time and getting a ton of whiffs (46.2%) while transforming himself into one of the best relievers in all of baseball. Finally, we have Randy Dobnak, who has been right up there with Maeda as one of Minnesota’s most trustworthy starters. As a ground ball machine, Dobnak isn’t going away from his sinker anytime soon (he’s actually throwing it more – 44.8% this year compared to 36.5% in 2019, it’s the four-seamer he’s using much less often), but his increased slider usage (up to 32.7%) is getting plenty of whiffs (34.7%) and weak contact (.088 BA, 82.8 EV). It’s easy to say that having pitchers throw their best pitches more frequently is common sense, but baseball is a stubborn and conservative game that is hesitant to change more often than not. Fastball usage is down across baseball, but it’s refreshing to see that Wes Johnson and Falvey and Co. are leading the pack rather than waiting around and finally changing after other teams are off to the next thing. The times they are a-changin’. MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email
  20. I looked back to last year and in the four recaps I've done the Twins are now 1-and-3. I'm not sure of my life time winning percentage attending games but I feel it's about as bad if not worse. I probably owe Rich Hill an apology.
  21. Following Kenta Maeda’s masterful near no-hit performance last night, another former Dodger, Rich Hill, took the mound to make his second start as a Minnesota Twin after coming off an IL stint with shoulder fatigue. It started well, got ugly quick, and ended with Ehire Adrianza on the mound.Box Score Hill: 2.2 IP, 4 H, 4 ER, 3 BB, 1 K Home Runs: Gonzalez (3) Bottom 3 WPA: Hill -.287, Thorpe -.137, Cruz -.048 Win Probability Chart (via FanGraphs): Download attachment: Winchart.png Facing off against the left-handed Brett Anderson, the Twins lineup had a different look with Marwin González replacing Max Kepler in right field and Ildemaro Vargas getting his first start as a Twin filling in for Luis Arráez and his achy knees at second base. Vargas made his presence felt immediately as he noticed Keston Hiura not running out of the box on an infield fly ball with Christian Yelich at first. Vargas alertly let the ball drop and turned a quick double play to get Hill through the first on just seven pitches. After getting the first two batters of the second inning out on two pitches Hill managed to get through the inning on eight pitches. Doubles-machine Miguel Sanó got the Twins first hit in the bottom of the second with a one-out two-bagger and Minnesota’s only left-handed batter, Eddie Rosario, put the Twins on the board first with an RBI single to bring in Sanó. Hill quickly got the first two outs in the bottom of the third before unraveling. He walked the number nine hitter, Orlando Arcia, and Ryan Braun made Hill pay by hitting a two-run home run to put the Brewers up 2-1. In the Arcia plate appearance, it appeared as if Hill got a 3-2 breaking ball over for strike three which would have ended the inning, but he didn’t get the call. The Brewers went on to load the bases and Avisail Garcia put an early end to Hill’s night (Hill threw 36 pitches in the inning) with a two-RBI single to put Milwaukee up 4-1. Caleb Thielbar, another lefty with a loopy curve ball, came in and struck out Manny Pina to finally put an end to the inning. Minnesota stuck with the lefty theme, bringing in Lewis Thorpe to follow Thielbar in the fifth. It didn’t go well, as Thorpe struggled to throw strikes and got crushed when he did throw it over the plate. Christian Yelich followed a Ryan Braun single with a two-run dinger to put Milwaukee up 6-1. Avisail Garcia hit another two-run homer (it would have been three runs if Hiura hadn’t made his second base-running mistake by getting gunned out on a delayed steal) to essentially put the game out of reach. It took Thorpe 35 pitches to get through the inning, with three walks, a single, a double, and two two-run homers allowed. Thorpe was left out there to take one for the team, and he did get through three additional innings unscathed, helping to bridge the gap to the only righty Milwaukee would face…Ehire Adrianza. As far as crafty lefties go, it was the Brewer’s Brett Anderson who played the role to perfection. Although Minnesota hit 11 hard hit balls off of Anderson (according to Baseball Savant), not many of them fell for hits, and he was able to finesse his way through six innings of one-run ball. He was followed by Drew Rasmussen, whose 99-mph heater from the right side proved a potent counterpunch in his scoreless MLB debut. Marwin Gonzalez was able to take Corey Knebel deep in the bottom of the 9th and Vargas singled in Sanó for his second hit off the game, but it was too little, too late, and the Twins fell to Milwaukee by a score of 9-3. Garver Exits the Game In the bottom of the 6th, Mitch Garver dropped to his knee after swinging through a third strike and immediately grabbed his right side. He exited the game and Alex Avilla took his place. With Avilla also catching all 12 innings of last night’s game, could Willians Astudillo be making his way over from St. Paul? With Cleveland beating Pittsburgh, Minnesota’s divisional lead is cut to a half game. The Twins and José Berríos will look to get back on track against Brandon Woodruff and take the series in tomorrow’s rubber match. Bullpen Usage Spreadsheet Download attachment: BullpenChart.png Postgame Pint You can check out our nightly discussion of the game below: We do these immediately after the last out of most Twins’ games, and you can join us by checking out PostgamePint.com. Download The Postgame Pint Podcast You can also listen to the Postgame Pint and never miss another one. Just head over to our iTunes page and subscribe. Every morning you'll have a new episode waiting for you. Or listen wherever you download your favorite podcasts. Click here to view the article
  22. Box Score Hill: 2.2 IP, 4 H, 4 ER, 3 BB, 1 K Home Runs: Gonzalez (3) Bottom 3 WPA: Hill -.287, Thorpe -.137, Cruz -.048 Win Probability Chart (via FanGraphs): Facing off against the left-handed Brett Anderson, the Twins lineup had a different look with Marwin González replacing Max Kepler in right field and Ildemaro Vargas getting his first start as a Twin filling in for Luis Arráez and his achy knees at second base. Vargas made his presence felt immediately as he noticed Keston Hiura not running out of the box on an infield fly ball with Christian Yelich at first. Vargas alertly let the ball drop and turned a quick double play to get Hill through the first on just seven pitches. https://twitter.com/Twins/status/1296243137904627712 After getting the first two batters of the second inning out on two pitches Hill managed to get through the inning on eight pitches. Doubles-machine Miguel Sanó got the Twins first hit in the bottom of the second with a one-out two-bagger and Minnesota’s only left-handed batter, Eddie Rosario, put the Twins on the board first with an RBI single to bring in Sanó. Hill quickly got the first two outs in the bottom of the third before unraveling. He walked the number nine hitter, Orlando Arcia, and Ryan Braun made Hill pay by hitting a two-run home run to put the Brewers up 2-1. In the Arcia plate appearance, it appeared as if Hill got a 3-2 breaking ball over for strike three which would have ended the inning, but he didn’t get the call. The Brewers went on to load the bases and Avisail Garcia put an early end to Hill’s night (Hill threw 36 pitches in the inning) with a two-RBI single to put Milwaukee up 4-1. Caleb Thielbar, another lefty with a loopy curve ball, came in and struck out Manny Pina to finally put an end to the inning. Minnesota stuck with the lefty theme, bringing in Lewis Thorpe to follow Thielbar in the fifth. It didn’t go well, as Thorpe struggled to throw strikes and got crushed when he did throw it over the plate. Christian Yelich followed a Ryan Braun single with a two-run dinger to put Milwaukee up 6-1. Avisail Garcia hit another two-run homer (it would have been three runs if Hiura hadn’t made his second base-running mistake by getting gunned out on a delayed steal) to essentially put the game out of reach. It took Thorpe 35 pitches to get through the inning, with three walks, a single, a double, and two two-run homers allowed. Thorpe was left out there to take one for the team, and he did get through three additional innings unscathed, helping to bridge the gap to the only righty Milwaukee would face…Ehire Adrianza. As far as crafty lefties go, it was the Brewer’s Brett Anderson who played the role to perfection. Although Minnesota hit 11 hard hit balls off of Anderson (according to Baseball Savant), not many of them fell for hits, and he was able to finesse his way through six innings of one-run ball. He was followed by Drew Rasmussen, whose 99-mph heater from the right side proved a potent counterpunch in his scoreless MLB debut. Marwin Gonzalez was able to take Corey Knebel deep in the bottom of the 9th and Vargas singled in Sanó for his second hit off the game, but it was too little, too late, and the Twins fell to Milwaukee by a score of 9-3. Garver Exits the Game In the bottom of the 6th, Mitch Garver dropped to his knee after swinging through a third strike and immediately grabbed his right side. He exited the game and Alex Avilla took his place. With Avilla also catching all 12 innings of last night’s game, could Willians Astudillo be making his way over from St. Paul? https://twitter.com/TFTwins/status/1296267882997981185 With Cleveland beating Pittsburgh, Minnesota’s divisional lead is cut to a half game. The Twins and José Berríos will look to get back on track against Brandon Woodruff and take the series in tomorrow’s rubber match. Bullpen Usage Spreadsheet Postgame Pint You can check out our nightly discussion of the game below: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A-zCswfiUoM&feature=youtu.be We do these immediately after the last out of most Twins’ games, and you can join us by checking out PostgamePint.com. Download The Postgame Pint Podcast You can also listen to the Postgame Pint and never miss another one. Just head over to our iTunes page and subscribe. Every morning you'll have a new episode waiting for you. Or listen wherever you download your favorite podcasts.
  23. With the Twins in need of starting pitching, the free-agent starting pitching market was the talk of the offseason. While Gerrit Cole and Stephen Strasburg were out of the question, there were several second-tier starters in the mix. Minnesota ultimately went a different direction, but today we’ll take an early look at what could have been.The Twins ended up getting Jake Odorizzi back on a qualifying offer, signed Michael Pineda to a two-year deal, and inked both Rich Hill and Homer Bailey to one-year deals. While Odorizzi, Hill, and Bailey have all suffered early injuries, Odorizzi’s back and Hill is set to rejoin the rotation this week. Pineda will also return from his suspension in two weeks and of all the additions, Kenta Maeda, who was acquired by the Twins for Brusdar Graterol, might be the best addition to the team. All in all, a pretty impressive haul considering Jose Berrios was the only returning starter (unless you count Randy Dobnak). However, the Twins showed varying degrees of interest in several other of the top free-agent names in the starting pitching pool, and although none of them came to fruition, there’s nothing stopping us from checking in on their early results. Zack Wheeler (30) – Philadelphia Phillies – 5 years/$118 million There was a lot of love for Zack Wheeler amongst Twins fans as he was the closest thing to a Cole or Strasburg stuff-wise and had the potential to take it to another level under Wes Johnson. He ended up signing a big 5-year deal with the Philadelphia Phillies, but it wasn’t the money holding Minnesota back. Wheeler chose to keep his fiancé happy by remaining close to her family out East and so far the results have been promising. Wheeler is 3-0 in four starts with a 2.81 ERA. Interestingly, while he’s getting his normal amounts of swings and misses, his K-rate is all the way down to 11%. He’s survived by channeling his inner-Randy Dobnak and getting groundballs while only allowing one home run. It’s worked. Madison Bumgarner (31) – Arizona Diamondbacks – 5 years/$85 million The Twins dodged an equestrian-sized bullet when MadBum decided to join his horses in Arizona. The D-backs got Bumgarner for a relative bargain as he actually pursued them in order to live on his ranch with his aforementioned horses. To be fair, there was reason to be optimistic about Bumgarner as his velocity and spin rates were up in 2019, but there was also reason for pessimism as he would be leaving the pitching-friendly confines of Oracle Park. The pessimists win! Bumgarner has been absolutely horrible in his first four starts. He is 0-3 with a 9.35 ERA while striking out just 15.7% of hitters and walking 8.4%. His four-seam fastball velocity has dipped from 91.4 mph all the way down to just 87.8 mph this year. Something’s not right, and Bumgarner was recently placed on the 10-day IL with a mid-back strain. He’s not expected to miss much time but if the velocity doesn’t come back it looks like Bumgarner might be cooked. Hyun Jin Ryu (33) – Toronto Blue Jays – 4 years/$80 million With Ryu, it’s all about health. When he’s been on the mound he’s been great. In 2018 he only managed 82.1 innings but pitched to a sterling 1.97 ERA. Last year was even better as he was an All-star and finished second in Cy Young voting with a league-leading 2.32 ERA over 182.2 innings. However, that was just the second time Ryu surpassed a hundred innings since 2015, so his injury history is understandably a huge concern when signing a 33-year-old to a four-year deal. Ryu’s 2020 started out a little rocky as he gave up eight earned runs in 8.1 IP in his first two starts. However, Toronto has been going through a lot after not being allowed to play in Canada and switching their home games to AAA Buffalo, and Ryu has been really good in his three starts since, giving up just seven hits and two earned runs in 17 IP, while striking out 18. Ryu’s fastball velocity has also dropped below 90 mph as his four-seamer is averaging 89.8 mph, but he has a deep pitch mix and velocity has never been the name of his game. Dallas Keuchel (32) – Chicago White Sox – 3 years/$55.5 million The 32-year-old Keuchel has been getting the job done for a long time, but certainly seemed like he was due for regression. His fastball velocity is in just the third percentile, he doesn’t get a lot of strike outs and he walks his fair share as well, but the former Cy Young award winner continues to get plenty of ground balls. He’s actually adjusted his sinker-heavy approach and has upped his cutter and changeup usage to the point where he throws all three pitches 30% of the time (with an occasional slider and rare four-seamer thrown in). And it’s been working. While his K-rate is at only 15.8% and his expected ERA (xERA) is 4.66, he continues to get the ground balls (57.9%), has lowered his walk rate to 4.2%, and has a very good 3.07 real ERA in his first five starts. It’s still way to early to have a good idea of how these signings will end up, but it seems likely that age and injury will play into more than a few of the deals. In that sense, going short term on Odorizzi, Bailey, and Hill, while having Maeda for four years on a very team-friendly contract puts the Twins at very little long-term financial risk. Missing on the others also allowed Minnesota to go out and sign Josh Donaldson, whose calf-issues have already flared up and shown the risk involved in signing an aging player with high-injury risk to a relatively long-term deal. It’s obviously way too early to judge the Donaldson signing as well, and if nothing else, it saved us from another year of cheap Pohlad talk. What do you think? Are you happy with the way the Twins addressed the rotation or would you have liked to see them sign one of the bigger names? Leave your comments below! MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email Click here to view the article
  24. The Twins ended up getting Jake Odorizzi back on a qualifying offer, signed Michael Pineda to a two-year deal, and inked both Rich Hill and Homer Bailey to one-year deals. While Odorizzi, Hill, and Bailey have all suffered early injuries, Odorizzi’s back and Hill is set to rejoin the rotation this week. Pineda will also return from his suspension in two weeks and of all the additions, Kenta Maeda, who was acquired by the Twins for Brusdar Graterol, might be the best addition to the team. All in all, a pretty impressive haul considering Jose Berrios was the only returning starter (unless you count Randy Dobnak). However, the Twins showed varying degrees of interest in several other of the top free-agent names in the starting pitching pool, and although none of them came to fruition, there’s nothing stopping us from checking in on their early results. Zack Wheeler (30) – Philadelphia Phillies – 5 years/$118 million There was a lot of love for Zack Wheeler amongst Twins fans as he was the closest thing to a Cole or Strasburg stuff-wise and had the potential to take it to another level under Wes Johnson. He ended up signing a big 5-year deal with the Philadelphia Phillies, but it wasn’t the money holding Minnesota back. Wheeler chose to keep his fiancé happy by remaining close to her family out East and so far the results have been promising. Wheeler is 3-0 in four starts with a 2.81 ERA. Interestingly, while he’s getting his normal amounts of swings and misses, his K-rate is all the way down to 11%. He’s survived by channeling his inner-Randy Dobnak and getting groundballs while only allowing one home run. It’s worked. Madison Bumgarner (31) – Arizona Diamondbacks – 5 years/$85 million The Twins dodged an equestrian-sized bullet when MadBum decided to join his horses in Arizona. The D-backs got Bumgarner for a relative bargain as he actually pursued them in order to live on his ranch with his aforementioned horses. To be fair, there was reason to be optimistic about Bumgarner as his velocity and spin rates were up in 2019, but there was also reason for pessimism as he would be leaving the pitching-friendly confines of Oracle Park. The pessimists win! Bumgarner has been absolutely horrible in his first four starts. He is 0-3 with a 9.35 ERA while striking out just 15.7% of hitters and walking 8.4%. His four-seam fastball velocity has dipped from 91.4 mph all the way down to just 87.8 mph this year. Something’s not right, and Bumgarner was recently placed on the 10-day IL with a mid-back strain. He’s not expected to miss much time but if the velocity doesn’t come back it looks like Bumgarner might be cooked. Hyun Jin Ryu (33) – Toronto Blue Jays – 4 years/$80 million With Ryu, it’s all about health. When he’s been on the mound he’s been great. In 2018 he only managed 82.1 innings but pitched to a sterling 1.97 ERA. Last year was even better as he was an All-star and finished second in Cy Young voting with a league-leading 2.32 ERA over 182.2 innings. However, that was just the second time Ryu surpassed a hundred innings since 2015, so his injury history is understandably a huge concern when signing a 33-year-old to a four-year deal. Ryu’s 2020 started out a little rocky as he gave up eight earned runs in 8.1 IP in his first two starts. However, Toronto has been going through a lot after not being allowed to play in Canada and switching their home games to AAA Buffalo, and Ryu has been really good in his three starts since, giving up just seven hits and two earned runs in 17 IP, while striking out 18. Ryu’s fastball velocity has also dropped below 90 mph as his four-seamer is averaging 89.8 mph, but he has a deep pitch mix and velocity has never been the name of his game. Dallas Keuchel (32) – Chicago White Sox – 3 years/$55.5 million The 32-year-old Keuchel has been getting the job done for a long time, but certainly seemed like he was due for regression. His fastball velocity is in just the third percentile, he doesn’t get a lot of strike outs and he walks his fair share as well, but the former Cy Young award winner continues to get plenty of ground balls. He’s actually adjusted his sinker-heavy approach and has upped his cutter and changeup usage to the point where he throws all three pitches 30% of the time (with an occasional slider and rare four-seamer thrown in). And it’s been working. While his K-rate is at only 15.8% and his expected ERA (xERA) is 4.66, he continues to get the ground balls (57.9%), has lowered his walk rate to 4.2%, and has a very good 3.07 real ERA in his first five starts. It’s still way to early to have a good idea of how these signings will end up, but it seems likely that age and injury will play into more than a few of the deals. In that sense, going short term on Odorizzi, Bailey, and Hill, while having Maeda for four years on a very team-friendly contract puts the Twins at very little long-term financial risk. Missing on the others also allowed Minnesota to go out and sign Josh Donaldson, whose calf-issues have already flared up and shown the risk involved in signing an aging player with high-injury risk to a relatively long-term deal. It’s obviously way too early to judge the Donaldson signing as well, and if nothing else, it saved us from another year of cheap Pohlad talk. What do you think? Are you happy with the way the Twins addressed the rotation or would you have liked to see them sign one of the bigger names? Leave your comments below! MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email
  25. When it comes to Byron Buxton and aggression, the talk is usually about his need to tone it down a bit in the outfield in order to stay healthy. However, it has been Buxton’s aggression at the plate that has led to a hot start.Minnesota’s final game of the Milwaukee series was a perfect microcosm of Buxton’s newfound aggressiveness. His first three plate appearances lasted all of one pitch, ending in a ground out, single, and a home run off of a first pitch slider (more on sliders later). On his fourth go-round Buxton finally worked a deep count but he still went after the first pitch and fouled off a total of four pitches before connecting for his second dinger of the game on a 3-2 sinker. That gives Buxton five home runs in his last seven games. Overall, Buxton has swung at 49% of first pitches (MLB average is 28.3%) and his overall swing percentage is at 61.8%. He’s kind of the anti-Mitch Garver, who is swinging at just 8% of first pitches and 34.4% of all pitches, but it’s worked well for Buxton and it makes sense to go after the first pitch as pitchers are often just trying to get one over for a first pitch strike. To give an idea of how often Buxton is swinging, consider that Eddie Rosario, who can be found in the Oxford English Dictionary under free-swinger, has a 57.1 career Swing%. And while Buxton is swinging more than average at pitches in the zone (75.9% vs. an MLB average of 66.1%) he’s also chasing at an astounding 46.2% rate (Rosario’s at 40.9% for his career). As crazy as those numbers seem, it’s been working for Buxton. His 33.3% HR/FB rate is obviously unsustainable but his Statcast numbers are solid, and he’s already hit five Barrels for a 14.7% Barrel rate (MLB average is 6%). He’s slashing .298/.306/.638 for a 150 wRC+, meaning Buxton is 50% better than league average. One of the reasons for Buxton’s early success has been his ability to do damage to breaking balls. Pitchers are throwing Buxton a ton of breaking stuff and he’s making them pay. So far Buxton has seen 40.9% breaking balls (compared to 35.8% in 2019) and he’s hitting a robust .615 with a slugging percentage of 1.385 against the 44 sliders he’s seen this season. Download attachment: Byron Buxton Aggressive BA chart pic.png The power has been great to see, but Buxton has also done some damage on the ground. His ground ball average in 2020 is at 44.1% compared to just 29.4% in 2019. While his hard hit percentage is at a career best 44.1%, Buxton is also hitting a career high 29.4% of his balls softly. The hard contact is what we like to see, but with Buxton the soft contact means slow ground balls that he can turn into hits with his speed. Buxton’s naturally trying to hit the ball hard and the soft contact is more of an accident, but putting the ball on the ground is certainly less detrimental for Buxton than the majority of MLB hitters due to his elite speed. The question is whether Buxton’s approach is sustainable. If Buxton continues to swing at everything pitchers will undoubtably adjust by throwing more pitches outside of the strike zone. If Buxton continues to chase at the rate he currently is, he’s going to get himself into trouble. On the other hand, if pitchers start pitching around Buxton more, he might be able to draw more walks which has been one of the drawbacks of his aggressive approach. Considering the power Buxton has hit for, his 28.6% strikeout rate is acceptable (and near his career average), but the fact that he’s only taken one walk so far this year is less than ideal for a player of Buxton’s speed. We’re dealing with a pretty small sample size and in the long term Buxton’s overly aggressive approach will need to be toned down to some extent, but for the time being its worked well. The absurd amount of swings can also be taken as a sign that Buxton’s confidence is high, and with such a superlative skill set in his possession, believing in himself is probably more important than anything. Adjustments will come, but Buxton’s superb talent should allow his infectious smile to remain ever present. MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email Click here to view the article
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