jlarson

Maybe? https://www.latimes.com/archives/la-xpm-1991-02-21-sp-2040-story.html But good question.

Great write-up and thank you for sharing! I had no idea his history.

Yes! I do understand Arraez does not have a fit defensively but I want to see him hit.

The Minnesota Twins have recently re-signed Carlos Correa if you have yet to hear. Re-sparked trade rumors surrounding Max Kepler and Luis Arraez are swirling. I understand packaging these two players to acquire a high-end starting pitcher. I would have to be mesmerized by a deal to trade Arraez. His abilities and skillset are too unique. Here are the top 10 comparisons on baseball-reference.com and when they played Major League Baseball. Fred Tenney (1894 – 1909 and 1911) Jo-Jo Moore (1930 – 1941) Roger Bresnahan (1897 and 1900 – 1915) Ethan Allen (1926 – 1938) Arnold Statz (1919 – 1928) Sam West (1927 – 1942) Tony Gwynn (1982 – 2001) Jim O'Rourke (1872 – 1893) Gene Robertson (1919 – 1930) Rich Rollins (1961 – 1970) Of the ten players listed, three are Hall of Famers, and one, Tony Gwynn, is considered by many to be one of the purest hitters of the 1980s and 1990s. Let's also notice each of these player comparisons eras. Some, like Jim O'Rourke, played in the Pre-1900 era when overhand pitching became legalized in 1872. The rules we understand today were absent when Jim O'Rouke played. Others like Fred Tenney and Roger Bresnahan played in the Dead Ball Era between 1901-1920, when spitballs were allowed, and they used one ball per game. Fred Tenney and Roger Bresnahan probably could not even see the ball after their first at-bat. Players like Jo-Jo Moore, Ethan Allen, Arnold Statz, Sam West, and Gene Robertson played in the Live Ball Era, which began in the 1920s and saw an increase in home runs and changes in the baseball ball used. Rich Rollins played in the Expansion Era when the number of teams in MLB expanded from 16 to 24. And then there is Tony Gwynn. Compare Tony Gwynns and Luis Arraez through their age-25 season. Luis Arraez: Tony Gwynn: If Luis Arraez has more plate appearances, he is right with Tony Gwynn for hits. Tony Gwynn had 559 hits in 1889 plate appearances. Arraez checks in with 444 hits in 1569 place appearances. When comparing Arraez to these players, it's clear that there's something very unique about him. Is he a unicorn in the modern game, and we have not seen a hitter like him not named Tony Gwynn since nearly the turn of the century? Is his skill set not well suited for the modern game, and he won't be able to sustain being the same player in the future? In other words, is his value at its all-time high? Wouldn't it be fun to find out exactly what we are seeing? Is it Tony Gwynn 2.0 or Rich Rollings 2.0? Like everything in life, it's probably somewhere in between, but I want to watch it play out in a Twins uniform.

Sometimes I like to get lost on baseball-reference.com just to see what I can find. Today I found myself looking at the Minnesota Twins draft classes since 2000. Here are a few thoughts that I had: The 2014 and 2015 draft by the Minnesota Twins looks like it will be not good. Like really not good. There is still a small bit a hope though trade trees and maybe one or two guys breaking through it might be just "ok". The 2011 draft class looks like one of the worst draft classes the Twins have had since 2000 that we can fully judge. Seven players out of 50 taken by the Twins in 2011 have played in the MLB. Dereck Rodriguez Round 6 1.3 career war. Rodriguez pitched 7 2/3 innings with the Twins in 2022. He has no trade tree. Jason Wheeler Round 8 -.01 war. Jason Wheeler has no trade tree. Adam McCreery Round 14 -.01 war. Adam McCreery did not sign with the Twins after being drafted. Brian Anderson Round 20 9.4 war. Brian Anderson did not sign with the Twins. He has carved out perfectly fine career in part time role, but I think he will have hard time finding a MLB contract this offseason. Nick Burdi round 24 -0.6 war. Nick Burdi did not sign with the Twins in 2011. He did get drafted again by the Twins 2014 in Round 2 and did sign. He was taken by the Phillies in the 2017 Rule 5 draft. Two weeks ago, he was selected in the minor-league portion of the Rule 5 draft. Chris Mazza Round 27 -.02 war. No trade tree. Kyle Barraclough round 40 2.2 war. Barraclough did not sign with the Twins in 2011. He did sign as a free agent in 2021 and pitched 13 not-good innings. Three players have had a positive WAR. Only one had a positive war for the Twins and that was Dereck Rodriguez in 2022 with a 0.2 WAR. Other items worth noting or questioning: The Twins drafted Kolten Wong and J.D. Martinez but neither signed. They went to college and were later drafted much higher. Will Byron Buxton pass Joe Mauer in WAR? If 2011, is the worst draft class since 2000 is the 2001 draft with Joe Maurer the best? Maybe 2012 with Buxton, Berrios, Rogers, and Duffey?

Great write up.

I know this story is not unique to the Minnesota Twins. Every year prospects are traded before they ever play an MLB game with the team that drafted them. Every year players decide not to sign with the team that drafted them and go the college route. That does not mean we cannot reminisce on Twins players that could have been. Looking through some draft history here are some names that would have looked pretty good in a Twins uniform. Brian Anderson, 3rd basemen Miami Marlins Anderson was drafted by the Twins in the 20th round of the 2011 draft but did not sign. Miami drafted Anderson in the 3rd round of the 2014 draft. Not an amazing player, but a useful player who has some value. George Springer, Outfield Toronto Blue Jays Springer was drafted by the Twins in the 48th round of the 2008 draft but did not sign. Houston drafted Springer in the 1st round of the 2011 draft. This one hurts a bit. Springer is probably the best player that did not sign with Minnesota in recent history. 3x All Star and 31.7 WAR through the age of 32. Kolten Wong, Second Base Milwaukee Brewers Wong was drafted by the Twins in the 16th round of the 2008 draft but did not sign. St. Louis drafted Wong in the 1st round of the 2011 draft. The 2008 draft class could have been amazing. 20.1 WAR from Kolten Wong and 31.7 WAR from George Springer. Wong is no superstar but has been a very valuable player in his career. J.D. Martinez, Outfield Boston RedSox Martinez was drafted by the Twins in the 36th round of the 2006 draft but did not sign. Houston drafted Martinez in the 20th round of the 2009 draft. Martinez is a 4x All Star. MVP Votes in 4 different seasons and may get MVP votes this season at the age 34 if he keeps playing the way he has. This one hurts as bad as Springer.

Great discussion!

It was about perfect.

I have always been intrigued by simulations. Pretend worlds are a lot of fun. I will get into more of that in a moment. For now, I would like to tell the Twins fan base that I do believe Joe Mauer is a hall of famer. 6 all-star appearances 3 batting titles at catcher 1 MVP 55.2 WAR .388 Career OBP .306 Career BA Of course, if Joe Mauer played his whole career at catcher, he is first ballot with no debate. That did not happen though. He last caught in 2013 and retired after the 2018 season. WAR as catcher between 2004 – 2013 was 44.6 WAR at first base between 2014 – 2018 WAR: 10.5 Still a valuable player from 2014 on though. At the end of the day Joe M. was the best catcher in baseball for 10 years. That is not easy to do. So how does this fit into my nerdy enjoyment of a simulation? Easy. I wanted to see if the computer agrees with me that Joe Mauer is a hall of famer. I decided to use OOTP to figure this out. If you are not familiar with Out of the Park Baseball, it is an amazing game and simulation engine that allows you to simulate all things baseball. Check it out here https://www.ootpdevelopments.com/out-of-the-park-baseball-home/ So, I used OOTP Baseball 2022, and I simulated the 2021 – 2041 baseball seasons. Joe Mauer's career numbers will not change in the pretend world or our real world so that makes this a pretty simple thing to simulate and look at. I was only interested in the Hall of Fame voting totals. Here are the voting results year % of vote 2024 47.8 2025 45.2 2026 32.7 2027 43.8 2028 21.5 2029 38.7 2030 12.6 2031 32.4 2032 14 2033 25.4 So, the computer does not agree with me. Joe M. is not a Hall of Famer. He did not even come real close. I think it will be wrong. Algorithms never played the game. What do you all think? Other interesting notes from the simulation: The Twins did not win a World Series during these 20 years. The Twins made the playoffs 8 times in the time frame. In 2040 Twins payroll was $185,342,511. Alex Kirilloff was out of baseball at the age of 30 and had 6 MLB at bats after 2022. Luis Arraez last played for the Twins in 2026. He retired in 2033 with a .401 OBP. His career earnings were $33,572,500. Byron Buxton finished his career with a 26.4 WAR. Buster Posey did not become a Hall of Fame either. His highest vote total was 51.7 in 2036.

For sure.

I found this response funny!

And I love hip hop.

Hello Twins Territory. My name is Jason and I would like to introduce myself. I have been watching the Twins since…well maybe when I was a young boy in 1987. I’m currently living near North Dakota but will be relocating to downtown Minneapolis this week if the closing does not fall through last minute. I don’t need an Alex Colome type April 2021 on this one. I am hoping to do some writing about the Twins here on Twins Daily. Maybe daily, but maybe not. Let’s see how this goes for a bit first. I would enjoy meeting some folks at a game or anywhere else to talk Twins, life, your story, or mine. If you need a 90’s pop culture guy for some trivia somewhere let me know. I am in. A little about my Twins fandom and some other random thoughts: The Twins are one of my reasons I decided to relocate to downtown Minneapolis. I do think Byron Buxton should get days off. As long as the Twins are in first place, they are not trading Carlos Correa. Joe Mauer was not overpaid. I like hockey just as much as baseball. A good high school hockey game is fantastic. Tom Brunansky was one of my favorites. Scott Erickson too. Ron Coomer making an All-Star team with an OPS+ of 82 is a wild ride. I thought Marty Cordova was going to be very good. Anyway, until next time.

Not how this works.